Scott Wright's MOCK (April 14)

by Colinski on Apr 14, 2009 3:37 PM MDT Comment 16 comments

I've been waiting to see what Wright would come up with; he's one of the better sources when it comes to evaluating players -- since he's a former NFL scout -- and his past predictions (see his archives) show a fairly accurate ability to predict when players will come off the board.

MOCK drafts are not attempts to actually predict the actual order of selection as much as they are a representative sample of what types of choices would be appropriate. Furthermore, a small deviation by one team can create a cascading effect as teams that choose later in the draft alter their choices to take advantage of surprising opportunities. In some cases, players can fall far beyond expectations, which may be because the later teams aren't in need at a particular position (thus rendering BPA logic moot), or because they don't re-order their preferences as an unexpected value becomes available.

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Enough said, here's Wright's MOCK:

#12) - B. J. Raji (NT)

#18) - Robert Ayers (DE)

#48) - Patrick Chung (S)

#79) - D. J. Moore (CB)

#84) - Stephen McGee (QB)

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That's all. We can speculate on what later choices might look like.

I'll save my comments for responses to other's comments.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

I Saw It.

It went from great to good to blah for me.

"The mystic chords of fandom, stretching from every trade and signing to every active account and guest all over this broadband, will yet swell the chorus of union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature". ~ Abraham Lincoln-ish

"The tree of victory must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of quarterbacks and coaches". ~ Thomas Jefferson-ish

by ejruiz on Apr 14, 2009 4:16 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

explain, please

by Colinski on Apr 14, 2009 4:17 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is a good Mock

I Like Raji and Ayers. I think Ayers will be a rush OLB in a 3-4 and will not be asked to put on weight to be a DE. Personally Ayers is one of my favorite players in the draft. He is kinda a one year wonder buy he has the size, strength and decent speed to play OLB and Dominate. I would rather see Gilbert from San Jose in round 2 though

by gnarlybroncodude on Apr 14, 2009 4:27 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

i used to REALLY like scott wright

and i still respect him but i just don’t think he totally gets it and i think that is the problem with having a site that focuses on all the different teams and it’s just hard.

let’s face it. we don’t want robert ayers. d.j moore i don’t think will drop that low. we are going to wait for safety. steven mcgee will probably be round 4. the only really think i like is b.j raji. sorry, i’m just not that crazy about it.

"Hey Raiders fans!!! If you leave now you can beat traffic!"
-Rod Smith

by GarretBarnes on Apr 14, 2009 4:28 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree DJ Moore will to last till the

4th but Ayers is going to be a beast. Yes he has some bust potential but so does Raji. I also think there are better safeties in the draft then Chung.

by gnarlybroncodude on Apr 14, 2009 4:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I actually like the Ayers pick

I have questions about taking him that early, but he’s been rising and won’t be there for our next pick. In fact, WF (Walter) and DE (Wright’s site), both have him as a 1st rounder (#21 in WF’s MOCK), and other’s have him at the 1-2 cusp and rising.

He’s one of a small groups of DEs that look like possibilities — T Jackson, Hood & Ayers. And I admit that I don’t know if we’d use him at OLB, which is quite likely. Probably a DE/OLB hybrid candidate, but he’s an amazing size/speed combination. I see him as having more utility as a DL and in the run game than Barwin — although I’m not knocking him.

I haven’t forgotten about Orakpo, etc., but Ayers is a slightly different type — a fast big man. Pro day 3-cone: 7.07. He’s probably rising faster than any other prospect right now.

by Colinski on Apr 14, 2009 5:36 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Regarding the hybrid DE/OLB

I completely agree that the Broncos should be focusing on players that are versatile enough to put the hand on the ground and stand up when the situation calls for it.

Furthermore, McDaniels has said we will be seeing a hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense this year. This of course goes right along with preparing for whomever that weeks opponent is, but the point is that in order for that kind of hybrid defense to succeed we need defensive ends and outside linebackers that can:

Play the DE position in a 4-3 AND
Play the DE/OLB position in a 3-4

My roots are in Denver and my branches in Nebraska.

by Blackshirt4Broncos on Apr 14, 2009 10:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've been contemplating the hybrids

They’re discussing this issue on the NFL channel; one player they focused on was Maybin. There may be problems with how he plays but he has reversed his post-Combine slide with an amazing pro day performance. His original ~4.9 40-yd. was vastly improved when he clocked 4.59 at his pro day, and he combined that with a 40.5 vertical and 10’10 in the broad jump, I’ve noticed he’s been mentioned by a few MOCKs as a pick for us. Whether or not we draft him, his rise may have pushed one of the other defensive players down to us.

by Colinski on Apr 14, 2009 11:30 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

re: Moore

I like this selection although I’m not sold. There’s a number of CBs who are real talents and project as future starters. The depth is good enough that we could choose later and still find potential help but I like the idea of taking a CB earlier.

Wright has him as his #5 CB, which is higher than you would rate him. I love everything about him but his size, but size is a rare commodity for CBs this year (with some exceptions, such as S. Smith). He wouldn’t be there if he was tall, and nobody would be complaining about his choice, either.

tidbits from SW on him:

Extremely athletic…Good speed with a burst to close…Very quick and agile…Smooth with fluid hips…Terrific hands and ball skills…Good leaper…Nice instincts and awareness.. …Superb return man.

by Colinski on Apr 14, 2009 5:57 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

best I have seen only question is Raji

This is the best top 5 in 3 rounds I have seen as far as my board goes. Only question would be the drug test on Raji. If it was positive at the combine he would be off my board in the 1st round. I espcially love McGee in the 3rd. He is kind of the “poor man’s” Tim Tebow. Same type of character and a masters degree in marketing while playing football. He also has the speed to maybe help on ST or at another position while he is learning the QB position. They all fill the needs the Broncos have now. We have adequate LB but a poor DL and old DB. There are some good late LB choices. So many LBs for a 3/4 are converted “tweeners” anyway that they can be somewhat hard to predict. Rashad Jennings may last to the 4th or another RB. We also need a late round WR/KR

by mauibroncofan on Apr 14, 2009 4:38 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

interesting, smart

by Colinski on Apr 14, 2009 5:38 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like the idea of Rashad Jennings in the 4th as well.

He was a beast during the Senior Bowl. I think feel that what he’ll bring in the area of the draft he’ll be picked might make him the best RB value on the board, and maybe one of the best values in the draft.

I like MCGee too, but I don’t think we need to pull the trigger on him in the third. He’ll last a little longer. Even if he doesn’t I like our chances of picking up a good developmental signal caller late. Maybe Painter, Cantwell, or Reilly. I have a weird desire to try out Chase Daniel as a CFA as well.

Even though I have reservations about Raji, if he lasts to #12 we almost have to take a chance on him. I hate the #12 pick because our needs there are mostly reaches and the values either don’t fit or look like luxuries. I would love to trade the #12 pick for a later first and another pick if at all possible.

I wonder about looking at DE/LB hybrids in the 1st as well. I like some of the players but I think that McD might be satisfied to see how Jarvis and Elvis work out in that role. Maybe draft a talented developmental guy later.

I like Scott Wright’s site a lot. It’s taught me a ton about how the draft works overall.

by jaffe28 on Apr 14, 2009 6:06 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

re: Jennings and other possible later picks

I’d expect that we turn to OL, WR/TE, RB and LB in the following picks. And it’s a tough choice because we would be a little late at addressing the offense.

I believe Wright has Moreno, Wells, D Brown, McCoy, Greene and Andre Brown going in the first 3 rounds, so take your pick of Jennings and the other RBs, but one or more could be gone by our pick.

I’d strongly consider taking Jennings if he’s there but I might settle for one of the others. Here’s some of Wright’s remaining RBs after the 3rd:

7. Rashad Jennings
8. Mike Goodson
9. James Davis
10. Javon Ringer
11. Jeremiah Johnson
12. Glenn Coffee
13. Arian Foster
14. Kory Sheets
15. Cedric Peerman
16. Javarris Williams
17. Bernard Scott
18. P.J. Hill
19. Ian Johnson
20. Devin Moore
21. Marlon Lucky
22. Chris Ogbonnaya
23. Gartrell Johnson

I there’s room for argument on his ranking but he’s covered every draft worthy RB that I can think of in this list.

by Colinski on Apr 14, 2009 8:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

McGee pick

The noticeable pick was McGee, and I’ve been checking to see where his stock is lately and what attributes he possesses — other than merely being a QB.

He hadn’t been regarded too highly not long ago, but it appears that his stock is rising (Cooney; DraftScout). DS’s #91 BPA ranking puts him as a slight reach but not significant. Wright has him at just outside his top 150 BPA, which is probably an older list (with some updates). DrafTek’s Big Board has him at #93 BPA and latest MOCK (version 36) has him going to Denver with the #79 pick — coincidentally.

McGee’s scouting report contains good and bad, and I’d guess the bad is fixable if we accept the logic of selecting him. He was injured throughout most of his senior year, and the Texas A&M attack isn’t pro style, so I’d expect that his stock is depressed somewhat.

What’s good about him? He seems to be an excellent athlete with the intelligence, leadership and intangibles. Apparently, not a terrific arm but very accurate. He’s definitely fast and mobile, which sounds like a McDaniels QB. I can see him as being the type of QB we can develop, and the fact that he visited here tends to look like he’s under serious consideration.

Any individual player has around a 3.9% chance (10/256, raw odds) of being drafted by us, so there’s no need to dwell on this choice. I do think, after looking into his story, that he’s a good choice for us. I would a lot more comfortable with this suggested choice if it happened later, like the 4th. However, his rising stock suggests he’s well placed. BTW — a 3rd on White is a possibility raised in another MOCK. I think we should look at the QBs in this range as being more likely selections.

by Colinski on Apr 14, 2009 5:00 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Not sure why everyone thinks we would take McGee

That dude was aweful in school, I see no upside to his pro game.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
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by Broncoman on Apr 14, 2009 5:10 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

maybe not take, but an appropriate choice

I was drawn to him after looking at his profile. The questions are — do we take a QB? If so, when? I recently advocated taking one, if at all, late, but McGee made me re-think that, even before seeing these MOCKs. Scouts do like him, and there’s too little recent exposure on TV to determine that he’s no good. He wasn’t in a situation that would allow us to see what he can do. I can see some logic to taking a QB in that range, and in taking him.

by Colinski on Apr 14, 2009 5:46 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs