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Top 100 Average BPA & The Wisdom Of Crowds

Hello everyone from Limey Land across the Pond.

Thought I'd try a little long term experiment. But in the meantime hopefully some of you may find this interesting and/or useful when it comes to 2009 Draft day.

The basic principle here is that the draft is a bit of a crapshoot. We all know the "experts" get it wrong. So the idea here is to use the "wisdom of crowds" principle and try and average out some of the mistakes each indvidual scout may make.

This mitigates to some extent the ability of one expert to get it wrong, and I would venture is a better way of doing it then just working off one list,

So what you see below is an average of the Best Player Available compiled from:

WalterFootball

Drafttek

NFL DraftCountdown

NFL.com (CBS)

Pro Football Weekly

 All seemingly sound sites.

While conceptually simple putting it together took some time, so I've only done players likely to be 1-3rd rounders. In total I added up the scores for about 140 or so players. I hope you find it useful when considering who should be taken when/who is likely to be taken when. But even if you don't, I'm planning to use these on draft day to see which players in my own mind are value picks/reaches. I should add that I am a big believer in BPA wherever possible as a draft strategy (assuming they fit the relevent system of course).

What I wish I had done - and will do so next year, is compile a similar list next year before the Senior Bowl/Combines etc to complement the one done one week before the actual draft. My hypothesis is that what should really matter is college production, not artificial 40 times and/or one off games etc. What I think would be very interesting is comparing the two lists 4/5 years later and then having a look at which BPA list produced the most accurate prediction of actual NFL success.

As you can see I'm planning some long term research here…..:)

Caveats -

1. This is as much a scientific experiment to see if the scouts can get it right. I should add that I have not seen a single one of these guys play (we don't get College Football here in the UK), but that's not the point. I'm relying on the "experts" to tell me who to get! Lets see if they can collectively make a good stab at it.

2. This list was put together based on rankings 2 weeks ago on the respective sites. I notice some have changed since then. Quite frankly I find this silly. If you don't know the value of a player after years of production (or lack of) in college + performance in the Senior Bowl/Combine/Pro Day Workouts then what on earth has changed one week before the draft? Stil the Talking Bobbleheads get to fill column space talking about last minute risers etc.

 Anyway here's the list. Any comments gratefully received.

1.      Aaron Currey LB

2.      Matt Stafford QB

3.      Jason Smith OT

4.      Eugene Monroe OT

5.      Michael Crabtree WR

6.      Brian Orakpo DE

7.      Malcolm Jenkins CB/S

8.      Mark Sanchez QB

9.      BJ Raji NT

10.  Michael Oher OT

11.  Knowshon Moreno RB

12.  Tyson Jackson DE

13.  Jeremy Maclin WR

14.  Chris Wells RB

15.  Everette Brown DE

16.  Vontae Davis CB

17.  Rey Maluagua LB

18.  Andre Smith OT

19.  Brandon Pettigrew TE

20.  Brian Cushing LB

21.  Peria Jerry DT

22.  Josh Freeman QB

23.  Darius Heyward-Bey WR

24.  Darius Butler CB

25.  Clay Mathews OLB

26.  Percy Harvin WR

27.  James Laurantius LB

28.  Aaron Maybin OLB/DE

29.  Robert Ayers DE

30.  Don Brown RB

31.  Ebon Britton OT

32.  Kenny Britt WR

33.  Alex Mack C

34.  Larry English OLB/DE

35.  Evander Hood DT

36.  Alphonso Smith CB

37.  Hakeem Nicks WR

38.  Clint Simtim OLB/DE

39.  Brian Robiskie WR

40.  William Beatty OT

41.  Michael Johnson DE

42.  Louis Delmas S

43.  Max Unger C

44.  LeSean McCoy RB

45.  Sean Smith CB

46.  William Moore S

47.  Eric Wood C

48.  Ron Brace NT

49.  Connor Barwin OLB/TE

50.  Patrick Chung S

51.  Duke Robinson G

52.  Rashad Johnson  S

53.  Jarius Byrd CB

54.  Travis Beckum TE

55.  Phil Loadholt OT

56.  D.J.Moore CB

57.  Jared Cook TE

58.  Cornelius Ingram TE

59.  Jamon Meredith T

60.  Paul Kruger DE

61.  Juaquain Inglesis WR

62.  Andre Brown RB

63.  Derrick Williams WR

64.  Shawn Nelson TE

65.  Jaron Gilbert DE

66.  Fili Moala DT

67.  James Casey TE

68.  Marcus Freeman OLB

69.  Chase Coffman TE

70.  Sen'drick Marks DT

71.  Darry Beckwith ILB

72.  Shon Green RB

73.  Sherrod Martin S

74.  Lawrence Sidbury DE

75.  Cody Brown OLB

76.  Alex Magee DT

77.  Andy Levitre G

78.  Louis Murphy WR

79.  Chip Vaughn S

80.  Mike Thomas WR

81.  Kraig Urbik G

82.  Darcel McBath S

83.  Mohammed Massaquoi WR

84.  Gerald Cadogan OT

85.  Mike Mickens CB

86.  Pat White QB

87.  Coye Francis CB

88.  Asher Allen CB

89.  Victor Harris CB

90.  Brandon Gibson WR

91.  Rashad Jennings RB

92.  Michael Hamlin S

93.  Troy Kropog OT

94.  Kevin Barnes CB

95.  Tyrone McKenzie OLB

96.  Herman Johnson G

97.  Jonathan Luigs C

98.  Javon Ringer RB

99.  Antoine Caldwell C

100.Kennan Lewis CB

 Cheers!

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

Comment 23 comments  |  11 recs  | 

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Nice Work BB

Interesting where the BPA average falls for our 48 & 79 picks compared to our percieved needs

Also interesting where Jenkins & Andre Smith land in the BPA average compared to all the mock draft projections

Nice work

by Scotto on Apr 23, 2009 5:59 PM MDT reply actions  

Very Interesting British Bronco.

To tell you the truth, I would be happy as hell with Jackson, Smith, Brace and Vaugn! Thanks for the post.

It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09

by firstfan on Apr 23, 2009 6:09 PM MDT reply actions   1 recs

I agree firstfan...

Great job BB!
Rec’d.

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????

by boydy2669 on Apr 23, 2009 6:38 PM MDT up reply actions  

Very good post...

I will take number 11 at 12 and 17 at 18 – sounds like value to me!

Moreno in '09!

by Steve O' on Apr 23, 2009 6:15 PM MDT reply actions  

Walter is a smart dude...he is a Bronco hater though. :P lol

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

by Tim Lynch on Apr 23, 2009 6:15 PM MDT reply actions  

He has been this year, that’s for sure. tThe vitriol he spews towards the broncos for the Cutler deal is beyond most fans that still wanted Cutler.

by thedoctor on Apr 23, 2009 6:44 PM MDT up reply actions  

I can only agree

with all the above comments
+1

My Dad told me about the 4 seasons:
Pre-season
Regular-season
Post-season
Off-season

by KaptainKirk on Apr 23, 2009 6:54 PM MDT reply actions  

Definitley stick with it guv'nor

I will be interested to see where this data leads… I am a strong believer in the “tale of the (game)tape” so this could lend some credence to it. I will point ot that I think that the CBS.com/NFL.com/Rob Rang data is already a “wisdom of crowds” situation. I don’t know what sources they are averaging, but I do believe they are averaging player rankings in their list.

There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.

by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 23, 2009 9:33 PM MDT reply actions  

Sound exactly what I like except Andre Smith at 18.

The players mentioned at our spots all seem good to me. Good job

by bfree2bronc on Apr 23, 2009 9:47 PM MDT reply actions  

Thanks for the research. Rec'd

It will be interesting to evaluate each scouting source and see which one is the most accurate. I hope someone can find the time to do that research.

I agree, Larsen shouldn’t get any bigger. I am getting tired of his bone crushing hits knocking the pixels off my TV, once they fall to the floor they are very hard to find.

by Arctic Bronco on Apr 23, 2009 10:27 PM MDT reply actions  

How do you mean?

It sounds interesting….

There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.

by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 23, 2009 11:32 PM MDT up reply actions  

I may be missing something, but....

You could enter the mocks into the MHR Draftivus to see how they do?
 
British Bronco mentioned these sites in the post:
WalterFootball
Drafttek
NFL DraftCountdown
NFL.com (CBS)
Pro Football Weekly

I guess it isn’t really measuring the accuracy of their player evaluations, but the MHR Draftivus scoring system would be a way to evaluate how their mocks fare relative to each other and to the MHR entries. You could add other “professionals” as well… would you want to see how Jamie Dukes, McShay, Kiper, et al, do in the Draftivus?

by Leukadian on Apr 24, 2009 9:30 AM MDT up reply actions  

ahh

I probably will see how they score against our members, sounds like fun.

Also, you guys might wnat to check out this link: it rates professional mockers and talent raters each year, and maintains a three year average on them.

There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.

by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 24, 2009 11:57 AM MDT up reply actions  

Nice work BB

Same situation here – I haven’t seen a single college game – well I lie, I think I saw one on a free weekend that NASN had, although aren’t they now ESPN America? But I will be damned if I can even remember who it was between. Although that said, I have found myself on the Internet arguing with people between picking two players who all I know about is seeing youtube highlights and reading 2 paragraphs on NFL.com. Which is still more research than Al Davis will do on his draft picks.

Anyway, I digress. Good work on this!

by mikebirty on Apr 24, 2009 3:38 AM MDT reply actions  

"The Wisdom of Crowds"

An excellent book that I highly recommend. It spends a chapter or so talking about Pro Football, the Patriots specifically, and the mystique that is going for it on 4th Down. Interesting stuff indeed.

Great Post!

-TSG

SBNation's Denver Broncos Blogger
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by John Bena on Apr 24, 2009 5:26 AM MDT reply actions  

your commitment...WOW

if you put that list together of precombine/interviews vs draft week rankings I’ll have an official man crush on you for your due diligence. And then the performance review several year later, damn that would be great.

sbhchawk

by sbhchawk on Apr 24, 2009 8:28 AM MDT reply actions  

Glad you all found it interesting

How useful this is, will of course only be proved over time. But I do intend to pursue this over the coming years. While no system wil be get close to 100% it would be good to find out what system gets the closest. Is it BPA pre Combine, BPA post combine, actual draft position etc? Lots of possibilities.

And yes in reply to Artic Bronco I will keep the list from each source so we can see which website scouting gets more hits then misses over time.

Guess I had better hang around MHR for a few years then!!

by British Bronco on Apr 24, 2009 10:34 AM MDT reply actions  

Great Stuff!

Great Post BB…where are you at in England? I am an American Expat Bronco fan up in Yorkshire!

by ExpatBrett on Apr 25, 2009 4:31 AM MDT up reply actions  

London town

Been supporting the Broncos for 22 years ever since I caught John Elway demolishing Seattle 40-17 on my first ever US Footie game I ever saw on TV.

Travelled out to MH stadium twice in the 90’s (including the SB season!)

Colorado and Wyoming are gorgeous states btw.

Hope you’re liking it here in the UK!

by British Bronco on Apr 25, 2009 11:58 AM MDT up reply actions  

British Bronco--I have one question.......

Have you met SilverBlood yet?

Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Little, Wright, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.

by Mike Clark on Apr 24, 2009 5:16 PM MDT reply actions  

FYI

She’s an American girl taking University at Oxford, and an MHR member. She’s the young lady wearing the Broncos gear to the Oxford / Cambridge crew matches. You can’t miss her.

: )

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Apr 24, 2009 9:12 PM MDT up reply actions  

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