Top 100 Average BPA & The Wisdom Of Crowds

Hello everyone from Limey Land across the Pond.

Thought I'd try a little long term experiment. But in the meantime hopefully some of you may find this interesting and/or useful when it comes to 2009 Draft day.

The basic principle here is that the draft is a bit of a crapshoot. We all know the "experts" get it wrong. So the idea here is to use the "wisdom of crowds" principle and try and average out some of the mistakes each indvidual scout may make.

This mitigates to some extent the ability of one expert to get it wrong, and I would venture is a better way of doing it then just working off one list,

So what you see below is an average of the Best Player Available compiled from:

WalterFootball

Drafttek

NFL DraftCountdown

NFL.com (CBS)

Pro Football Weekly

 All seemingly sound sites.

While conceptually simple putting it together took some time, so I've only done players likely to be 1-3rd rounders. In total I added up the scores for about 140 or so players. I hope you find it useful when considering who should be taken when/who is likely to be taken when. But even if you don't, I'm planning to use these on draft day to see which players in my own mind are value picks/reaches. I should add that I am a big believer in BPA wherever possible as a draft strategy (assuming they fit the relevent system of course).

What I wish I had done - and will do so next year, is compile a similar list next year before the Senior Bowl/Combines etc to complement the one done one week before the actual draft. My hypothesis is that what should really matter is college production, not artificial 40 times and/or one off games etc. What I think would be very interesting is comparing the two lists 4/5 years later and then having a look at which BPA list produced the most accurate prediction of actual NFL success.

As you can see I'm planning some long term research here…..:)

Caveats -

1. This is as much a scientific experiment to see if the scouts can get it right. I should add that I have not seen a single one of these guys play (we don't get College Football here in the UK), but that's not the point. I'm relying on the "experts" to tell me who to get! Lets see if they can collectively make a good stab at it.

2. This list was put together based on rankings 2 weeks ago on the respective sites. I notice some have changed since then. Quite frankly I find this silly. If you don't know the value of a player after years of production (or lack of) in college + performance in the Senior Bowl/Combine/Pro Day Workouts then what on earth has changed one week before the draft? Stil the Talking Bobbleheads get to fill column space talking about last minute risers etc.

 Anyway here's the list. Any comments gratefully received.

1.      Aaron Currey LB

2.      Matt Stafford QB

3.      Jason Smith OT

4.      Eugene Monroe OT

5.      Michael Crabtree WR

6.      Brian Orakpo DE

7.      Malcolm Jenkins CB/S

8.      Mark Sanchez QB

9.      BJ Raji NT

10.  Michael Oher OT

11.  Knowshon Moreno RB

12.  Tyson Jackson DE

13.  Jeremy Maclin WR

14.  Chris Wells RB

15.  Everette Brown DE

16.  Vontae Davis CB

17.  Rey Maluagua LB

18.  Andre Smith OT

19.  Brandon Pettigrew TE

20.  Brian Cushing LB

21.  Peria Jerry DT

22.  Josh Freeman QB

23.  Darius Heyward-Bey WR

24.  Darius Butler CB

25.  Clay Mathews OLB

26.  Percy Harvin WR

27.  James Laurantius LB

28.  Aaron Maybin OLB/DE

29.  Robert Ayers DE

30.  Don Brown RB

31.  Ebon Britton OT

32.  Kenny Britt WR

33.  Alex Mack C

34.  Larry English OLB/DE

35.  Evander Hood DT

36.  Alphonso Smith CB

37.  Hakeem Nicks WR

38.  Clint Simtim OLB/DE

39.  Brian Robiskie WR

40.  William Beatty OT

41.  Michael Johnson DE

42.  Louis Delmas S

43.  Max Unger C

44.  LeSean McCoy RB

45.  Sean Smith CB

46.  William Moore S

47.  Eric Wood C

48.  Ron Brace NT

49.  Connor Barwin OLB/TE

50.  Patrick Chung S

51.  Duke Robinson G

52.  Rashad Johnson  S

53.  Jarius Byrd CB

54.  Travis Beckum TE

55.  Phil Loadholt OT

56.  D.J.Moore CB

57.  Jared Cook TE

58.  Cornelius Ingram TE

59.  Jamon Meredith T

60.  Paul Kruger DE

61.  Juaquain Inglesis WR

62.  Andre Brown RB

63.  Derrick Williams WR

64.  Shawn Nelson TE

65.  Jaron Gilbert DE

66.  Fili Moala DT

67.  James Casey TE

68.  Marcus Freeman OLB

69.  Chase Coffman TE

70.  Sen'drick Marks DT

71.  Darry Beckwith ILB

72.  Shon Green RB

73.  Sherrod Martin S

74.  Lawrence Sidbury DE

75.  Cody Brown OLB

76.  Alex Magee DT

77.  Andy Levitre G

78.  Louis Murphy WR

79.  Chip Vaughn S

80.  Mike Thomas WR

81.  Kraig Urbik G

82.  Darcel McBath S

83.  Mohammed Massaquoi WR

84.  Gerald Cadogan OT

85.  Mike Mickens CB

86.  Pat White QB

87.  Coye Francis CB

88.  Asher Allen CB

89.  Victor Harris CB

90.  Brandon Gibson WR

91.  Rashad Jennings RB

92.  Michael Hamlin S

93.  Troy Kropog OT

94.  Kevin Barnes CB

95.  Tyrone McKenzie OLB

96.  Herman Johnson G

97.  Jonathan Luigs C

98.  Javon Ringer RB

99.  Antoine Caldwell C

100.Kennan Lewis CB

 Cheers!