Hello everyone from Limey Land across the Pond.
Thought I'd try a little long term experiment. But in the meantime hopefully some of you may find this interesting and/or useful when it comes to 2009 Draft day.
The basic principle here is that the draft is a bit of a crapshoot. We all know the "experts" get it wrong. So the idea here is to use the "wisdom of crowds" principle and try and average out some of the mistakes each indvidual scout may make.
This mitigates to some extent the ability of one expert to get it wrong, and I would venture is a better way of doing it then just working off one list,
So what you see below is an average of the Best Player Available compiled from:
WalterFootball
Drafttek
NFL DraftCountdown
NFL.com (CBS)
Pro Football Weekly
All seemingly sound sites.
While conceptually simple putting it together took some time, so I've only done players likely to be 1-3rd rounders. In total I added up the scores for about 140 or so players. I hope you find it useful when considering who should be taken when/who is likely to be taken when. But even if you don't, I'm planning to use these on draft day to see which players in my own mind are value picks/reaches. I should add that I am a big believer in BPA wherever possible as a draft strategy (assuming they fit the relevent system of course).
What I wish I had done - and will do so next year, is compile a similar list next year before the Senior Bowl/Combines etc to complement the one done one week before the actual draft. My hypothesis is that what should really matter is college production, not artificial 40 times and/or one off games etc. What I think would be very interesting is comparing the two lists 4/5 years later and then having a look at which BPA list produced the most accurate prediction of actual NFL success.
As you can see I'm planning some long term research here…..:)
Caveats -
1. This is as much a scientific experiment to see if the scouts can get it right. I should add that I have not seen a single one of these guys play (we don't get College Football here in the UK), but that's not the point. I'm relying on the "experts" to tell me who to get! Lets see if they can collectively make a good stab at it.
2. This list was put together based on rankings 2 weeks ago on the respective sites. I notice some have changed since then. Quite frankly I find this silly. If you don't know the value of a player after years of production (or lack of) in college + performance in the Senior Bowl/Combine/Pro Day Workouts then what on earth has changed one week before the draft? Stil the Talking Bobbleheads get to fill column space talking about last minute risers etc.
Anyway here's the list. Any comments gratefully received.
1. Aaron Currey LB
2. Matt Stafford QB
3. Jason Smith OT
4. Eugene Monroe OT
5. Michael Crabtree WR
6. Brian Orakpo DE
7. Malcolm Jenkins CB/S
8. Mark Sanchez QB
9. BJ Raji NT
10. Michael Oher OT
11. Knowshon Moreno RB
12. Tyson Jackson DE
13. Jeremy Maclin WR
14. Chris Wells RB
15. Everette Brown DE
16. Vontae Davis CB
17. Rey Maluagua LB
18. Andre Smith OT
19. Brandon Pettigrew TE
20. Brian Cushing LB
21. Peria Jerry DT
22. Josh Freeman QB
23. Darius Heyward-Bey WR
24. Darius Butler CB
25. Clay Mathews OLB
26. Percy Harvin WR
27. James Laurantius LB
28. Aaron Maybin OLB/DE
29. Robert Ayers DE
30. Don Brown RB
31. Ebon Britton OT
32. Kenny Britt WR
33. Alex Mack C
34. Larry English OLB/DE
35. Evander Hood DT
36. Alphonso Smith CB
37. Hakeem Nicks WR
38. Clint Simtim OLB/DE
39. Brian Robiskie WR
40. William Beatty OT
41. Michael Johnson DE
42. Louis Delmas S
43. Max Unger C
44. LeSean McCoy RB
45. Sean Smith CB
46. William Moore S
47. Eric Wood C
48. Ron Brace NT
49. Connor Barwin OLB/TE
50. Patrick Chung S
51. Duke Robinson G
52. Rashad Johnson S
53. Jarius Byrd CB
54. Travis Beckum TE
55. Phil Loadholt OT
56. D.J.Moore CB
57. Jared Cook TE
58. Cornelius Ingram TE
59. Jamon Meredith T
60. Paul Kruger DE
61. Juaquain Inglesis WR
62. Andre Brown RB
63. Derrick Williams WR
64. Shawn Nelson TE
65. Jaron Gilbert DE
66. Fili Moala DT
67. James Casey TE
68. Marcus Freeman OLB
69. Chase Coffman TE
70. Sen'drick Marks DT
71. Darry Beckwith ILB
72. Shon Green RB
73. Sherrod Martin S
74. Lawrence Sidbury DE
75. Cody Brown OLB
76. Alex Magee DT
77. Andy Levitre G
78. Louis Murphy WR
79. Chip Vaughn S
80. Mike Thomas WR
81. Kraig Urbik G
82. Darcel McBath S
83. Mohammed Massaquoi WR
84. Gerald Cadogan OT
85. Mike Mickens CB
86. Pat White QB
87. Coye Francis CB
88. Asher Allen CB
89. Victor Harris CB
90. Brandon Gibson WR
91. Rashad Jennings RB
92. Michael Hamlin S
93. Troy Kropog OT
94. Kevin Barnes CB
95. Tyrone McKenzie OLB
96. Herman Johnson G
97. Jonathan Luigs C
98. Javon Ringer RB
99. Antoine Caldwell C
100.Kennan Lewis CB
Cheers!


There are 23 Comments. Load Now.
Shortcuts to mastering the comment thread. Use wisely.
C - Next Comment
X - Mark as Read
R - Reply
Z - Mark Read & Next
Shift + C - Previous
Shift + A - Mark All Read
Comment Settings
Live comment alert: Hide it!
Comments for this post are closed.