On the Eve of Draftivus, some thoughts about the Broncos
by John Bena on Apr 24, 2009 6:03 AM MDT
in 2009 NFL Draft - Denver Broncos
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PrintAs I was packing my bags for my trip to New York, I started to seriously ponder the weight of this draft on the future of the Denver Broncos. With 10 picks, the Broncos have the ability, and flexibility, to do anything they want to get any player they want. As in life, however, there are 'wants' and there are 'needs'. What will determine the final success of Draftivus 2009 for the Orange and Blue is if they spend enough time focusing on the 'needs' instead of chasing the 'wants'.
Everyone here has done an excellent job laying out the needs of the Broncos. You have done a great job discussing the proposed wants as well. Just so we are on the same page, I'll lay out my needs and wants --
Broncos Needs -- DT, DE, LB, S, CB, C
Broncos Wants -- QB, RB
The 'NEEDS' are pretty obvious. The Broncos defense was historically bad, and the team did a solid job of addressing some areas in free agency, especially at the back end of the secondary. Now they need to address the Front-7. If the Broncos are to have any success next year they have to stop the run and get to the quarterback -- with a 4-man rush. That is the key. Nothing cute or fancy, and please, NO GIMMICKS, just line up and kick the tail of the guy in front of you.
They NEED to add some attitude, whether it is Rey Maulaluga or Brian Cushing, B.J. Raji or Brian Orakpo/Aaron Curry, Aaron Maybin. For the perfect 5-technique D-End, Tyson Jackson would look great with a horse on his helmet, but his stock is rising fast.
The point is, there are several defensive players, good ones, that will be available at #12 and #18. The Broncos NEED multiple defensive players to add youth, speed and toughness to a group that too often looked old, slow, and soft. Using #12 and #18 on two probable defensive starters is simply smart football.
There is little doubt that Josh McDaniels WANTS to put his imprint on the team and fast. He is a quarterback guy and I am sure he wants to find a young quarterback in this draft to groom.
Of course, none of that is as much fun as drafting the next stud, franchise quarterback, especially with the off-season we have endured. It's funny to me. Twelve weeks ago, people were blasting Mark Sanchez for coming out after only starting for 1 season at USC. Remember, the kid couldn't see the field with John David Booty in front of him. Enough said. Now, he's the second coming of <fill in the blank with a comparison we have heard> and everyone is touting how great he will be.
The reports are rampant that the Broncos are intrigued by Sanchez, that McDaniels, based on the success he had with another USC QB that didn't play. Matt Cassel was a 3-year project for McDaniels in New England, and he sat and watched one of the best, if not the best, QB in the game, especially fundamentally in terms of footwork. Sanchez wouldn't get the same luxury, especially in QB-crazy Denver.
The Broncos would likely have to trade up to get him, meaning fewer draft picks. That means fewer needs get addressed by taking a flier on a want. Are you starting to understand where I am going with all of this?
We hear all the time that you can't win big in the NFL without a 'Franchise QB'. I agree. What is the assurance that Sanchez is going to be a franchise guy? Because Jamie Dukes says so?? I also know that you can't win big in the NFL if you can't stop anyone.
This might be the biggest Draft in the history of the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have the opportunity to bring 5 of the Top-84 players in the draft to Denver to rework a .500 football team that could easily be deemed overachievers. While some of you WANT to see a quarterback or running back drafted in the first round (or both), the Broncos have to focus on their NEEDS.
Denver needs to be a team that intimidates. It needs to be the homefield advantage it once was. That starts with defense, and with the tremendous opportunity in front of them to fix many of the holes, the Broncos NEED to do the right thing.
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Couldn't agree more
We can look at the “fancy” picks when we are in the position of solidity.
Right now we’ve got to make at least 3 of those first 5 picks “stick” on the defensive side of the ball to be a threat this year.
No trading up...
Unless they’re moving from 12 to 8 to get a Raji/Jackson player.
I’d be interested to see what is out there in the 18-22 range and if another team is looking to move to 18. If there are 4-5 guys that they like, and moving down still gets them one… allowing them to add a R2 or R3, then I’m all for it.
Defense is the key… sure, I’ve mentioned it would be cool to see Moreno at 18, but deep down I want DEFENSE. If the first 3 picks could be all defense, we’re on the right npath.
______
Mile High Mania
by Mile High Mania on Apr 24, 2009 6:35 AM MDT reply actions
Why?
So we can get even more picks? We already have 10.
by Lean n' Mean on Apr 24, 2009 8:24 AM MDT up reply actions
Depends how the Draft is Going
You don’t need to trade down for picks this year we could always stack more up for next year and even beyond. I think that if some hotshot player that we don’t want falls to our position we could have opportunities to switch with guys only a few picks below us.
Keep in mind though if someone we want is there, take them!
Agreed.
Standing pat or trading down is the right way to go.
Trading down would allow us to get more of the players we need in the range they are available, or getting picks stockpiled for next year. I vote for standing pat.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Apr 24, 2009 3:22 PM MDT up reply actions
I want then to stay...
But I feel our needs at LB dont need to be filled in the first 2 rounds.
If Moreno falls to us 18 we are NUTS not to take him.
If we could get Tyson Jackson, Moreno and Brace from the first day, that instantly helps our defense. YES, taking a RB helps are defense. You have a great back that gives options like Moreno, you keep the opposition D on the field, you score more points which then gives our D more margin for era and less options for them to consider eg. Defending the pass as opposition tries to catch our offense.
I am a USC guy, but dont think we need to take any of the 3 as there is some great value in the 3rd for ILB backers.
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
+1
I very much agree with TSG in that the focus should be needs, but I’m with Boydy on Moreno…and any other situational upgrade that slips to us. If Sanchez slips to 12 (he won’t) we’d be crazy not to pick him up UNLESS Raji is there as well. If Moreno is there at 18 we’d be crazy not to take him. He should only go at 12 if all of our Defensive options are gone for 12 value (they won’t be).
I don’t want breakaway speed. I want break-some-poor-fool-as-I-bowl-you-over power getting 6 yards off a play that should have been stopped for 2 at most.
What if they both slip?
If Raji is gone & Sanchez & Moreno are both on the board when we a picking you would be fine with us taking them both as our 1st round picks? That is doing exactly what this article warns against, taking wants over needs. I think our needs on D Line far outweigh our wants at QB & RB. We have to fix our D with our high picks this year even if Sanchez & Moreno (either or both) fall to us.
If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.
Agreed
It’d be buying toys instead of food.
by AllBroncsallday on Apr 24, 2009 7:18 PM MDT up reply actions
I respect almost all your posts :)
and it would indeed be hard to pass on him. I understand your reasoning, but later on we could get a BIG punishing back that would guarantee 3+yards. We’ve needed that for a long time. I’m thinking someone like Shonn Greene…. We have a slew (sp) of scat back 3rd down backs and a punisher to compliment them would be outstanding.
I agree with the above poster on the first 3 picks being defensive starters that will make an immediate impact. Certainly no offense intended! :)
I think we already have that back in Hillis.
At 250 lbs. he is a heavy load and I think we saw his ability to get those tough yards. Nor am I concerned about his health. His injury was freakish, a wierd set of circumstances I don’t see happeniing to him again, ever.
If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!
by Trinidad Jack on Apr 24, 2009 10:03 AM MDT up reply actions
3 Players
First two rounds – a simple request. 3 players that make the same impact as Ryan Clady and Eddie Royal. (Preferably Defensive players!)
Thats is a great and simple way of looking at...
I agree…impact players first 2 rounds….BPA with need next 5 rounds!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
why not even greedier?
how about repeating our past 6th and 7th round suprises too?
"My job description is to win football games. I'm a hard worker. I'm not flashy by any means, but my job is to play football and win and I plan to do that." Kyle Orton
We need Defense, that's for sure!
Quality Defense with our high picks. McD can draft his franchise QB next year, KO will get it done for ’09 – at least if we have some Defense…!
get at least two impact/defensive starters
take the #12 and other picks and move up and get Raji…with 18th take rey mauluga (sp?). i would be soooo excited!
Or
If Raji goes early. Take Jackson with 12 and trade 18 back for a late 1st rnd pick plus another pick and take Brace in the late 1st rnd. That gives us Jackson & Brace along with an additional pick.
If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.
I'm worried
I want to think the interest in Sanchez is all subterfuge, but after McBushleague botched the Cutler thing so badly, I can’t shake the feeling that there is some truth to the rumors.
The only saving grace is that we might not be able to afford the cap hit involved if we move up high enough to get him.
Hmmm.
Coach listened to an offer and turned it down.
Player demanded a trade then refused to answer calls.
Player’s agent lied about owner being at a meeting when owner wasn’t even in town.
It has been hashed and rehashed here, and even the main stream media had to change their initial story. Let’s back off of the name calling.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Apr 24, 2009 3:48 PM MDT up reply actions
my draft wants
12) Jackson
18) Mauluaga
2nd round – Use our 4th round pick to trade up for Ron Brace
3rd round plus – BPA. mostly focusing on defense but getting a RB, QB, and OC in the later rounds
only line, Raji, Jackson and Hood/Ziggy
boyd, a RB helps the Def by taking up the mins on the clock. I think we all agree, however how many RB’s does a team need? Denver and NE have shown you can win without that stud Rb even though everyone remembers some cat named TD. Having said that what made Den O so good? CLady and Harris and all the guys between them. Without an O line you can’t run or pass. I believe the same is true of the Def. If you can’t stop the run it doesn’t matter how good your running game is unless AP is your RB. Build the D line with those picks. Thoughts on only DL (Jackson, Raji, Ziggy ) as top three guys to get in round 1.
sbhchawk
Yep, but guys like Moreno come by every 10 years...hes another LT and we would be silly to pass on him now....
Lets remember, we have 2 × 1st rounders next year too, with the NT class of FAR higher quality than this years.
Why reach for Raji now, when a guy like Brace or Terrance Taylor maybe able to do the job? If not, then we go Mt Cody next year. A guys like Moreno WONT be there next season, or several yeras after this.
Yep, I am high on the guy….he is a rare dude that has all the tangibles AND the intangibles.
Thanks SBH!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
It seems to me
That this is a pretty weak draft (there, i said it) and if Moreno was really as good as LT, why wouldn’t there be talk of him going #1? I understand that circumstances have changed (more people going to a 2 back system), but if he really is a can’t miss prospect, then why wouldn’t he be more hyped? LT went to a smaller school and faced lesser competition and still went #2 overall. Moreno is coming out of an SEC school and still probably won’t go in the top 15.
This draft feels an awful lot like the 2002 draft IMO.
Once in ten years?
Boydy – I have all the respect in the world for your takes and generally agree with you, but on this, I couldn’t agree less. First, while he’s talented, I think comparisons to LT and “once every ten years” are over the top. Second, the defense is in such need of a talent infusion that I shudder every time I see projections of the Broncs even considering the Sanchez’s and Moreno’s. I suppose if these guys are still on the board and the defensive guys still there are a reach at that point in the draft, then maybe. But I’d consider taking them as trade bait first. Let’s face it, even Bailey and DJ are probably not what they once were and while FA brought us some time-biding, the talent pool of this club is out of balance in a big way. That said, I’m not a GM, scout or anything but a fan, so let’s see what happens. Cheers!
It's "just" football
by Donkhead on Apr 24, 2009 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thats cool man.....thats the beauty of the draft....
Every year is different, needs change etc etc.
I just think Moreno has the UNUSUAL combo of tangibles and intangibles.
Couple this with McD’s system, the explosiveness already of the offense, he is the one guy that can put us over the top.
I dont want a RB…..this is not the point……I think Moreno is just a VERY special player. From the research, the tape, the interviews. I put him above McFadden, and just below LT and Ap with potential to grow.
No worries man, and I will support what ever we do.
Thanks for the post Donkhead!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
Boydy
One AFC Executive agrees…
One AFC personnel man compares Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno to Walter Payton.
High praise, to say the least. “He looks like Payton, his attitude is just like Payton’s and he’s got Payton’s balance and leaping ability,” the club official said.
Moreno in '09!
Thats high praise...
I am blaming you and Zappa Steve O for getting me on the Knowshon Express and now I see him as GREAT value for us!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
Sanchez
Absolutely no trade up, but if he somehow falls to 12, I think they’d be hard-pressed to NOT pull the trigger on him.
This is what we wanted...
Hey, look what we got!
AGree with that...I would rather have Jackson and Moreno though!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
I agree with you both
But I think it would be smarter to get Jackson, Brace plus an extra pick.
If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.
I APPLAUD YOU GURU-
I think your spot on mate.. I like DfencE and home field advantage too. Both top picks on the front seven, exactly. If they don’t build it from this point forward the natives will be restless, the trade for not. If we have to move up it ought only to be for Raji or Orakpo. This is a big draft alright, I think we’re ready.
If we do any trading up...
….I hope it’s from Round 3 or 4 to Round two, Round or 5 or 6 to Round three. something like that. NO on moving up from #12 or 18.
Growing older is not for sissies. Jack Palance
John Clayton
It is amazing too how in this article Clayton essentially says that the prime spot in the draft that everyone wants to be at is at 11 and after.
Defense this year, QB next year
I think we should definitely get defense this year. We need quality defenders much more than we need a QB. Orton or Simms won’t be putting up 4500 yards, but I don’t see them throwin 18 INT’s either. We go defense this year. Next there will be a couple of QB’s coming out. Bradford, McCoy, Tebow. I not really sold on either of these guys especially Tebow, but you can’t tell me Sanchez is much better than these guys. These guys won with less talent in tougher conferences. We have two # 1’s next year. I say we wait.
100% in agreement
Focus on D Line early, and D often this year. Next year we can get QB, that is if KO doesn’t shock the world this year in a system that fits him to a T.
If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.
Great job Guru!
You did well to focus our attention on reality and take way a little of our fantasy. I would still like to see at least 1 want addressed in the first five picks. We can have a little cake with our brussel sprouts right? Anyways, you really changed my mind here as far as what I would like to see. If we go two defense picks at #12 and #18, I will not be upset with that. I will say that any “want” fulfilled at those two spots that isn’t named Knowshon Moreno will piss me off. lol
Thanks for the read!
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
LT was the once in 10 year player, AP has the title now though
I can’t say I’m that high on any RB. They are made or bust by the line doing there job just ask McFadden (may Gallery always open holes for the DL to fill and for RunDMC go down). As for Mt Cody or the Safety from USC or the young throwers I think they’ll be top 10 picks next year and don’t see Denver picking there, only problem with D line is they say it takes 3 years to know if they are players so not quick fix like your boy would be.
thanks for the thoughts boyd
sbhchawk
Couldn't have said it better myself!!!
And Lord know’s I’ve made enough posts in this regard, but you put it all together better than I ever could.
I have chills before the draft for the first time in my life…… It’s just that big!
All I can add is a HUGE +1
I agree with you on certain points
Yes, we don’t draft on want over need, but in that same vein the Broncos must make sure that their needs don’t cloud the vision of the big board. I think you really need to pick the best available guy and not look at reaching, everyone is in love with Jackson, but in all honesty, he is a five technique with limited to no pass rush ability, he was graded a 2nd rounder before the draft and other than he has size and played for a good program, nothing makes me think he is worthy of a 1st round pick, similar guys to Jackson can be had in the 2nd and 3rd round. I guess my point being if the Broncos grade out say Moreno as a top ten talent, and let’s say at 18 he is still on the board and is vastly superior to the other players grades on the board, then you take the talent versus reaching for a need, that is how to best build a team long term.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the one with the gun, A-hole" - Ash from Army of Darkness
by Broncoman on Apr 24, 2009 9:32 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
BPA is the only way to go.
If you draft based solely on need you’re going to overvalue prospects and that leads to busts/un-productive high picks, see Shanahan era defensive picks.
As long as the team drafts whomever is top on their board, regardless of what the MSM, fans, millions of mocks and other teams think, then they’re building the right way.
Look at the Pats every year. Logan Mankins, Jerod Mayo, etc. These weren’t names that were slotted to go where they went. Yet, the Pats took them and both were exceptional starters from Day 1, even DROY.
It really is the most successful strategy. If the team lets the fans and MSM dictate whom they take. Then they’ve already lost. No one knows who fits the team better than the people molding the team.
"You can make mistakes, but you are not a failure until you blame others for those mistakes." -John Wooden
by Randall15 on Apr 24, 2009 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
In a way I think you contradicted yourself here. You use the Patriots picking of Mayo, Mankins and note how they weren’t nearly considered the best player available at the time the Patriots took them. In effect the Patriots weren’t drafting BPA, they were drafting BPA for a position they needed or maybe a better term would be valued.
I feel you need to draft with your needs in mind otherwise you aren’t going to solve your problems and I look at the Millen Lions as a classic example. They arguably drafted the BPA several times taking large receivers and although some of those worked out, Williams and Johnson they certainly never improved as a team.
I would look for value, a combination of how you view a players ability and how they would help your team. The trick here is don’t overshoot for the BPA that doesn’t fit what you need and don’t go crazy looking to get a player at a position you are weak at overpaying for them at the time. The draft is tricky huh?
I wouldn't say Mankins and Mayo
were absolutely needs for the Pats, especially Mankins.
However, they were the BPA on the Pats draft board.
That’s what is meant by BPA. Not BPA based on fans thinking, MSM thinking, etc., its the BPA from your organizations board. When it comes time to pick and you pass on the #1 guy on your board (say Moreno) and take the #4 guys just because he fits a need, you’ve already had a failed draft day.
Whomever, is at the top of that list when your pick comes up, that needs to be the pick no matter what. Sure its loosely going to be based on team needs (I doubt OT is on the Broncos board) but if there is a player who you feel is an upgrade over your current players (say Moreno or Sanchez) that’s your ticket to success.
Mendehall couldn’t have been considered a need for the Steelers, yet, they took him anyway. And before his injuries he looked like he could develop into a good NFL back who can compliment Fast Willie.
"You can make mistakes, but you are not a failure until you blame others for those mistakes." -John Wooden
It's easier to draft BPA on either side of the ball...
…when you have a D like the Steelers have. When you had one of the crappiest D’s in the league last year however, you need to draft BDPA not BPA.
If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.
Why?
If Moreno is the top player on your board. Draft him. A strong running game is very beneficial to a defense. So a running back pick is a pick with an eye toward the offense and the defense.
Its very doubtful that we are looking OL, WR or TE early in the draft. Everything else should be fair game.
The idea is to improve the team. If a player you draft is an upgrade over what you have, does that not improve the team?
"You can make mistakes, but you are not a failure until you blame others for those mistakes." -John Wooden
Besides, I've said it before
and I’ll say it again.
A lot of our defensive struggles from last year were coaching related:
Poor discipline – Arm tackling, lack of gap control, constant over pursuit.
Poor coverage schemes – If you don’t have a pass rush what do you think is better? Play zone and give the WR’s a 10-15 yard cushion, thus allowing the quick pass? Or play bump man and force the WRs to get open later in the route, thus allowing your pass rush a little more time. The one time I saw bump man last season; Paymah had a nice INT. One time, we get one of 6 INTs. Boy if only we’d used it a little more. We might have had 10 INTs.
Poor use of personnel – I can’t count the number of times Jarvis Moss was lined up in a 5-technique position last season. With a player who relies on speed and lack strength it boggles the mind how anyone could expect him to line up across from the OT and anchor versus the run. Moss needed to line up in the 7-tech away from the LT. He needs to be in a position to use his speed to beat a OT around the corner, not try and push through him. Don’t even get me started on lining Josh Barret 20-30 yards from the LOS during the Panthers game.
Our defensive staff and the schemes they employed last year were an embarrassment to any self-respecting defensive coach on the planet. I expect our defense to show improvement simply by being around quality NFL defensive coaches for the first time in a few years.
Sure the talent needs an upgrade. But it doesn’t mean there isn’t talent there already.
"You can make mistakes, but you are not a failure until you blame others for those mistakes." -John Wooden
I agree the coaching and schemes defensively were a huge problem for us last year
But it’s not like we had a good D line that wasn’t used properly. Our D line has been the weakness of our team for quite some time now.
Your last sentence was referenced to our D, but is the same argument that can be applied to our O, specifically in regards to drafting a RB early. Sure the talent needs an upgrade. But it doesn’t mean there isn’t talent there already.
Take a look at the talent we have on each side of the ball. It’s obvious where we need to focus in this draft. Count me in the camp of D line early and D often. We can’t afford to use a 1st round pick on Moreno or Sanchez. We have bigger needs on D. They key to us getting back to a great football team lies in our ability to shore up our defense.
If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.
Yes, an improvement is an improvement
Don’t get me wrong, I would not be upset if we drafted Moreno if he’s on the board at out spot. I just think we would be drafting for want at the expense of need. Our D line needs a lot more help than our RB’s. We can improve our team in either case. I feel like it would be more of an improvement to our team to focus on D early, rather than drafting a RB or QB early.
If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.
You know what else is beneficial to a defense?
A quality D Line.
If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.
That's debatable regarding the Lions
Yes you can say that the Lions were drafting what the thought was the BPA, but reality was their scouting was severly flawed and the whole BPA term needs to be put into proper context (sp?). Anyways, when you look at a board you grade each player, part of that grade is can he play in our system. You may have a higher grade for say Moreno over Wells based on that factor which may not mean that overall Wells isn’t a better talent than Moreno, it is just that Moreno fits your system better, hence he gets a better grade.
Also in that vein is what is the value of the position, positions that are hard to find and critical to the success of the team like say QB, LT, DE, CB are going to get higher grades than positions that are easier to find like OG, LB, S. In addition, there are inherient risk factors in that QB, WR, DL usally take longer to develop and generally have higher flop rates than say a RB or LB, so that may push a grade up or down on a player.
So when the term BPA is applied to a particular board, I think that grade has to take into account all the other factors, not just he runs the fastest or can do the most bench presses. So someone like Moreno may be graded as a top 5 player on the Broncos board and say Sanchez is a top 20 player, and say Jackson is a top 30 player, then I think even though RB may not be a critical position or one of need, the value you get over taking that player versus the risk of the other players is why you take Moreno (if he is graded that way).
The whole point I think SWG was trying to make is that is how the Pats generally grade a player in that he is the BPA based on their board, not say Mel Kipers board. And that they don’t reach for a player based on need, I can remember them drafting a TE almost ever year for awhile, even when they had Graham and Watson, they obviously graded them higher and it allowed them to let Graham walk since they had depth there. Conversly when they were short on WR they didn’t reach for players in the 1st round, they looked to address the position through FA and trades, there are more han one way to attack a weakness on a team.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the one with the gun, A-hole" - Ash from Army of Darkness
Well now the picks the Lions were taking in the early rounds were never based only on their opinions. It is true that they have problems at scouting but they selecting what was widely considered large talent in the first rounds and in several cases hit it big. My examples of Williams and Johnson were there for that reason. Their busts of Rogers and Mike Williams wouldn’t have lasted long if they hadn’t gone where they did.
However, in even getting such talent the Lions are a bad team because they have continued to ignore glaring deficiencies in the draft. So you can’t ignore need. In fact I would argue that most teams tend to ignore their needs to a greater degree than they ignore the best player available, to their peril in these drafts.
Now I think we are all in agreement that their is a balance to maintain here and I believe coach McD says it right when he talks about drafting the BPA for a position they need. He is talking about balance. Now the Patriots and Steelers are fortunate enough at this point that they can look around more than many teams for players because they have solid team they want to add to. They aren’t rebuilding from the ground up but for teams that need to do this, and I am not sure Denver really is a team like that, simply taking the best player you see may be a bad idea.
So where are we now, I think for the most part we all agree on the fundamentals, maybe we need a better term than BPA to talk about our draft ideology.
+1
what’s going on in the universe. I keep agreeing with Broncoman ;-)
All kidding aside. Great points. Reaching for need by Shanahan is part of what got us in this dismal state in the first place. When they settled on and started paying attention to the big board we got the 2008 draft. No team can afford to stray too far from BPA.
by SlowWhiteGuy on Apr 24, 2009 11:22 AM MDT up reply actions
Great take Broncoman....
Guys in the 1st round need to be game changers.
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
Big props on great article...
Plenty of D to fix the fence please…
the internet? that thing is still around?
~Homer Simpson
So I was reading a blog by Mike Rice over on DB.com
he was responding to a to some questions and he Mentioned Adam Schefter thoughs on the Broncos moving up from the 18th to 13th, 14th, or 15th pick to target someone like Moreno to get ahead of SD.
bigvon…I think you could be on to something when it comes to Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno.
This from our colleague Adam Schefter, who does an outstanding job and is making the move from the NFL Network to ESPN. On 850 KOA on Thursday afternoon, Adam said after talking with many people and trying to put together various pieces of information, he believes the Broncos are trying to move up from 18th to the 13th, 14th or 15th range for their second pick of the first round.
Adam speculated, and he stressed it was simply his thought, the Broncos could very well be targeting Moreno with that selection.
Another idea was that the Broncos, if they like Moreno that much, could take him with the 12th pick and then take a defensive player after moving up from 18.
Even before hearing Adam today, I felt in my gut the Broncos will take an offensive player in the first round.
This is why the lead-up to the draft is so much fun. No one knows for sure how it will turn out.
Mike
This is very Interesting
by gnarlybroncodude on Apr 24, 2009 10:19 AM MDT reply actions
While this is a well written article
I beg to disagree with the fundamental premise: that we have needs on defense that should supersede the principle of BPA. This seems to imply that there are glaring holes on defense that will keep us from being competitive if not filled. Three months ago I think that was true. But the FO has done such a great job through FA that I don’t think that is the case anymore. At every position on the team, offense and defense, we have capable starters and acceptable substitutes.
I hear what some of you are saying: “Fields (or whoever) is a backup at best!” To that I would respond that what makes you think any draft pick is any better than that? Do you realize that almost 1 in 4 first round picks are complete busts? that less than 1/3 first round picks are capable of starting their rookie year and that only about 1/10 are capable of performing at the level of the average starter?
Let’s not be fooled by last years draft. Clady and Royal were amazing picks, but that’s the exception. The statistical reality is that you are drafting players who are not likely to make an impact for a year or two. Since that is the case we should be looking to take the BPA with only a few exceptions, those being positions where we already have quality and depth. Off the top of my head OT is the only position that is true for.
We should just draft BPA.
+1
We should just draft BPA – except Tackle.
SWG has just summed up my thoughts in a nutshell. Nothing to add!
by British Bronco on Apr 24, 2009 11:33 AM MDT up reply actions
I disagree...
Teams that only consider bpa don’t have successful track records, partly because they don’t consider what they really need and partly because they don’t evaluate talent very well. (the Browns and the Lions come to mind on both accounts) Teams that tend to have the most success in the draft, like say the Colts, (it’s sick how many of their players have never played a down for another team) consider lots of things. The best guy left, whether a player “fits” the system AND what they need. While I agree a team can’t let needs blind them to a good opportunity, they also can’t let the “best of what’s left” prevent them from fixing problem areas. As you point out a lot of first rounders are busts. Just because a guy is good in college doesn’t always mean he’ll be good in the NFL, but more importantly just because a guy is a good fit with one NFL team, doesn’t mean he’ll be a good fit for another. It’s best to consider everything.
by racer39girl on Apr 24, 2009 11:39 AM MDT up reply actions
so BPFTPYN kinda thing
Best Player For The Position You Need
by lovewatchinthegame on Apr 24, 2009 11:42 AM MDT up reply actions
Not if it requires you to reach on a player.
That was Shanny’s mistakes. We needed DE’s so we reach on Moss, Paul Toviessi, Crowder, etc. We needed CB so he reached on Foxworth and Paymah. It doesn’t work.
That’s the Lions, Browns, Bengals, Niners and Raiders problem.
Take the best player on your organizations board
"You can make mistakes, but you are not a failure until you blame others for those mistakes." -John Wooden
Don't confuse BPA with the ability to evaluate talent....
I think a lot of crappy talent evaluators use the BPA as a smoke screen for their lack of ability to evaluate talent. However, you do raise a very good point that BPA is a relative concept based on the systems and players a team already has. The BPA for one team may not be the BPA for another team. The best example can think of DT. One DT may be BPA for a 4-3 team and not even be a consideration for a 3-4 team.
But teams that draft based on need don’t tend to do well.
by SlowWhiteGuy on Apr 24, 2009 12:39 PM MDT up reply actions
I disagree racer39girl
There are more than one way to attack a need, look at the Pats (gag), but they had a weakness at WR for a long time, rather than reach in the 1st round, they decided to address the position through FA (Welker, Gafney, Stalworth) and trades (Moss), and they used their draft to address other needs by getting players in the 1st round that could usally start early or provide depth at positions. The whole issue is putting together the big board and evaluating the talent correctly, that is the bigger issue. I think teams like the Lions got too swayed by the media and fans into their picks, rather than doing solid scouting, the whole Mike Williams thing was Mel Kiper hyping this kid and Matt Millan not doing his homework, every legit scout said the guy was too slow to be an effective WR at the next level and ran too sloppy routes, well Lions justified the pick as BPA, but we all know he wasn’t.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the one with the gun, A-hole" - Ash from Army of Darkness
You are correct...BPA
the big guy last year Glen Dorsey (4th overall i believe) struggled with the chefs last year and is even on the traiding block this year. we got extremally lucky last year with our picks…
the internet? that thing is still around?
~Homer Simpson
Dorsey is on the trading block becuase he doesn't fit the 3-4 system
Too small to be a NT, and too short to be a DE, but I think the fact he came in injured hurt his production last year and it takes time for most D-lineman to be good at the NFL level. Mario Williams struggled, nobody heard much about Chris Long or Adam Carricker. Dorsey has the talent to be a good 4-3 DT, and some team will be happy to snag him.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the one with the gun, A-hole" - Ash from Army of Darkness
I agree...COMPLETELY
Defense, then defense again. The organization cannot afford to move up and therefore they won’t. The best value in the draft is right where they are at. Quality with a lower front end price tag.
Sanchez is anything but a lock and we already have 2 quality QBs. I can see McDaniels taking a QB with coachable fundamentals in the later rounds, 4 through 7, but not in the first unless Sanchez fell to number 12.
This is an opportunity to establish the heart of this new defense for the next 10 years and it cannot be wasted on players who cannot stop the run in the 4th quarter with games on the line.
"Now we have them where we want them"
-Kieth Bishop - On the Denver 2 yard line, Cleveland Ohio, 1987
Spot On Sports Guru
No. 1 problem facing Broncos is Defense, Defense, and Defense. If we don’t fill OLB, DE or CB/S then I will be crushed.
You forgot NT
If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.
Have a great trip John!
Thanks for all you do!
Moreno in '09!
by Steve O' on Apr 24, 2009 11:33 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree but...
I have to say that I would ecstatic if somehow the Broncos ended up with Raji and Jackson and a stud CB and the rest ended up being bust’s
BUT
I have a sneaky feeling that HCMcD is looking at Sanchez and is seeing the next Cassel, same system, same coach , same attributes and it’s been said that Mark had a stellar workout for the Broncos staff. I can just see him saying to Nolan I just want one pick this year you can have the rest. If he should fall to 12, I don’t know how he could resist. We’ll see
by lovewatchinthegame on Apr 24, 2009 11:38 AM MDT reply actions
I am all excited for the draft
and now that I have MHR again twice as excited. Whoever we draft I will root for.
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Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!
JT....where you been man???
Great to see ya again (or read you)…you know what I mean!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
Our little town
made an attempt to upgrade our internet! with limited success I have been a snail for two weeks having to watch NFLN and ESPN. DONT EVER GO WITHOUT MHR EVER!
http://www.davusx.net/assets/db/la_la_land.gif
"We should have kept Seattle and dumped San Diego from the Division"
Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!
by Jon Tollerud on Apr 24, 2009 1:12 PM MDT up reply actions
Great having you back man!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
Agree completely
Sanchez would be a panick move. Josh is already on my list for how he handled Cutler. If they trade up for Sanchez with so many other glaring needs, with no guarantee whatsoever that Sanchez will be a franchise QB, I think my head will asplode. Address the front 7 on the D. For the love of God, address the front 7 on the D.
MHH: Shagging Dater one contributor at a time.
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