Trading A Future First Round Pick.
by ejruiz on Apr 25, 2009 8:47 PM MDT
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PrintA future first round pick is not worth nearly as much as some people on this blog seem to think. Even the most cursory look at past trades involving such selections illustrates that fact. The trades made in 2007 that included such deals:
- San Francisco traded its first-round selection in 2008 and #110 to New England for #28.
- Cleveland traded its first-round selection in 2008 and #36 to Dallas for #22.
- Indianapolis traded its first-round selection in 2008 and #126 to San Francisco for #42.
Sure, the 49ers seem to have gotten a better deal than we did, but that's only because everyone and their mothers knew that they would fall flat and that the subsequent future pick would be extremely valuable. Check out what the Browns had to pay to work their way back into round one for Brady Quinn or what the Colts gave up to snag a falling Tony Ugoh! I'd go further back, but I don't think it's necessary because this proves the point sufficiently.
So, can we please dispense with the nonsensical meme that screams roberry at the thought of our trade for the pick that because Alphonso Smith? People need to take a step back and analyze the draft in full before flipping out simply because the team didn't take the guys they wanted or address the positions they thought we needed. We had our shots at a lot of those guys (Matthews, Maualuga, Brace, Gilbert, etc.) and we passed, so our management either didn't like them as prospects or believes our current options are superior. Give it time, people. More thoughts to come from me following the completion of the draft.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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+1
Let’s all (that means everyone who liked the choice and those who didnt’) put our heads together, drink a beer together as we’re typing and see if we can’t figure out the plan the coaches are using. I think hoosierteacher gives us some great insights into that.
Here's a list of likely 1st rounders in 2010, tell me which one A. Smith is better than
Sam Bradford QB – Oklahoma
Colt McCoy QB – Texas
Sergio Kendle DE/OLB – Texas (Think Orakpo except better)
Carlos Dunlap DE – Florida
Gerald McCoy DT – Oklahoma
Eric Berry S – Tennessee
Taylor Mays S – USC
Joe Haden CB – Florida
Brandon Spikes ILB – Florida
Ndamukong Suh DT/NT – Nebraska
Rolando McClain ILB – Alabama
Terrence Cody NT – Alabama
Marvin Austin DT – North Carolina
George Selvie DE/OLB – South Florida
Reshad Jones FS – Georgia
Jevan Snead QB – Ole Miss
Cause that is what w gave up, a shot at getting a much better player next year, this year’s draft is a weak class at best and Smith is a smaller and slower version of Jack Williams.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the one with the gun, A-hole" - Ash from Army of Darkness
For the most part I like the picks today, but I agree we need more size on D
Last season convinced me of that. But at least it feels like they have a vision and a plan.
"according to the map, we've only gone 4 inches"
Personally?
I like him better than Haden, Suh, Austin and Jones. Snead would be a fool to declare with that top heavy QB class. Projecting a draft class a year early is a foolish proposition. The point of this post is to prove that we paid the going price.
"The mystic chords of fandom, stretching from every trade and signing to every active account and guest all over this broadband, will yet swell the chorus of union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature". ~ Abraham Lincoln-ish
"The tree of victory must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of quarterbacks and coaches". ~ Thomas Jefferson-ish
Except he's bigger and faster than Jack Williams....
and a more productive college player, who played against a higher level of competition, and played his best football against the best teams on Wake’s schedule. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
by Ted Bartlett on Apr 25, 2009 9:46 PM MDT up reply actions
A bird in the hand?
That would have been Jay Cutler……
More like a turd in hand with Cutler.
An unhappy player who was stinking up the locker room with his, ‘I don’t like the coach attitude.’
Personally I am glad we got rid of the stink we had stuck to our hand.
"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway
He is neither
Jack Williams 5’ 9" 186 pounds, 4.45 40 yd dash
Alsphonso Smith 5’ 9" 190 pounds 4.56 40 yd dash
So tell me how this isn’t Jack Williams except slower?
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the one with the gun, A-hole" - Ash from Army of Darkness
Kinda perplexing for sure
things that make ya go Hmmmmmmm
by lovewatchinthegame on Apr 25, 2009 9:51 PM MDT up reply actions
We STILL HAVE A PICK
in the first round next year folks! Not saying I wouldn’t have loved two, but to state that we only had one shot at any of the above players is being a bit melodramatic. IMO.
"They need a hero to tell them that the impossible can become possible..... WHEN... YOU'RE... AWESOMMMME!" -- Rhino the Hamster
by broncosmontana on Apr 25, 2009 10:28 PM MDT up reply actions
what i'm saying is
I dig the draft’s best ballhawking CB this year. My opinion.
"They need a hero to tell them that the impossible can become possible..... WHEN... YOU'RE... AWESOMMMME!" -- Rhino the Hamster
by broncosmontana on Apr 25, 2009 10:29 PM MDT up reply actions
just to clarify, i realize
you weren’t saying we only had one shot, but i just felt it’s important to remember we could still end up with one of those players.
"They need a hero to tell them that the impossible can become possible..... WHEN... YOU'RE... AWESOMMMME!" -- Rhino the Hamster
by broncosmontana on Apr 25, 2009 10:32 PM MDT up reply actions
Not to mention
the fact that we are going to be bad enough to get a very high 1st round pick in next years draft
Calm down, dude
Think of it this way— his junior year William Moore was a top-15 pick had he declared. His senior year he slipped into the second round. What a difference a year makes. Sen’Derrick Marks was also supposed to be a top first-rounder for this draft at the start of the 2008 season. You can’t predict what will happen from one year to the next.
The point is, they gave up a first round draft choice for Smith. McDaniels and Co. thought that Smith was worth a first-rounder. Most draft experts agreed with that in principle. There is no way to predict (least of all from an armchair) what kind of situation we will be in heading into the draft 2010, or which guys will be available for us at whichever position we’re picking at thanks to Chicago…
Are you catching on to all the uncertainty? The only certainty is that McDaniels, et. al. pegged Smith as a first-rounder and were happy to draft him as such. Speculating on the position we will be in next year is very pointless.
"3rd and 6, Elway shotgun... Elway, scrambling, looking, running-- DIVING!!!-- inside the 5 yard line for a first down! Is he only 37?! How important is this football game? How bad does John Elway want to win this football game? Where you see the quarterbacks go down: Not Elway!"
by Sharpe as a Tack on Apr 25, 2009 10:39 PM MDT up reply actions
Not a single player on your list helps this team win this year.
The Broncos do potentially prevent a salary cap issue with a maximum of 3 players coming out of the first round rather than 4 in two years.
They actually do get pretty good value in the trade when you look at it with the context of previous similar trades, whether or not you personally grade the pick as a reach, the two picks’ value seems to match up. Although if you have evidence that the Broncos got jobbed in relation to similar trades that have gone down, please do share.
They do get the player they had targeted (most likely with specific reasoning, I’m sure it was more than simply looking at his int numbers, although they clearly contributed). We will most likely never know who else would or would not have taken Alphonso, but we do know that for better or worse they never got the chance, because we have a FO that looks for specific players and makes a point of getting them.
But most importantly we have a new CB to compete for the Nickle Back, because clearly not everyone here or in the FO are comfortable with Jack Williams. Hopefully we as Bronco fans know that there is more to the CB position than speed and height. I would bet that the Broncos FO knows that too.
"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway
I doubt Smith is going to help win anything this year
The point is that if you are scouting then everyone is saying next years draft is far more loaded, no reason to reach for a player this year and give up more value next year.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the one with the gun, A-hole" - Ash from Army of Darkness
For the last time
Not only will we still have a first-round pick next year (from Chicago), it will (we hope, we think) be higher than the pick we traded (our own).
Some of those players on that list, as well as players you didn’t mention whose stock has a full year to rise, can still be had.
"I'm a Michigan Wolverine, which means I'm the only one who watches 'Rudy' hoping he pulls a hamstring or pops a quad." - Rich Eisen
Time will tell.......
You may be completely right about this draft. Maybe McD had this plan the whole time. I just wonder why we give up a first instead of trading up by dealing our 3rd’s or 4th & 5th. Obviously I don’t know 1% of the behind the scenes stuff but I just think we could have been more creative.
Congratulations on getting your man Knowshon. I’m sure he will be a great RB and I am excited about him running behind our OL and our new TE. We have a bunch of ballhawks in our secondary now and that is great.
I do have a clarification to make though. On one hand, I can’t stand people who belittle McD and are overly negative. On the other, I don’t like blind loyalty and the “Can’t we all just get along” attitude. We could have had an Al Davis draft and I suspect people would have maintained McD is still brilliant.
Also, I don’t automatically buy your theory about precedent regarding trading next year’s first. If you look at prior cases of trading the next year’s first, they are almost always less of a reach than what we did today. By most accounts, next years draft is much more deep than this years. With that said, we possibly sacrificed long-term for short-term.
Once again, I could live with this draft but I liked it a lot more before we traded our first
by swg777 on Apr 25, 2009 9:14 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Colt McCoy
Will not even carry any 3rd string QB’s Lunchbox
My Dad told me about the 4 seasons:
Pre-season
Regular-season
Post-season
Off-season
don't like the odds...
37th pick verses in all likely hood a top 10 pick next year….we’ll see if you are still chirp’n about this trade come next years draft???
One other point
is that if we had Smith ranked as a first rounder on our board, getting him for a second round contract is a good deal for us. Presuming we’ve done our homework and he’s a solid pick, but that’s a disclaimer you have to attach to any rookie.
"They need a hero to tell them that the impossible can become possible..... WHEN... YOU'RE... AWESOMMMME!" -- Rhino the Hamster
by broncosmontana on Apr 25, 2009 10:34 PM MDT reply actions
Counter point
If we had him on our first round boards, then many opinions of McKid have been proven
Counter counter point
Actually A Smith is a lower first round player on several of the more reliable published “big boards.” If he wasn’t on yours, all it proves is you judge talent differently than the Broncs FO.
This year
this year is McDaniels chance to take chances and learn from his mistakes. While he is leading by the examples of his NE roots, he will come into his own.
You can’t be upset with the fact that he was very shady in his first draft campaign. While we don’t understand the majority of choices now, they are what they are. He has a plan for our team, and it’s something he believes will lead us into the future, while giving us a legitimate chance to win NOW as well.
What’s most important to remember is that McDaniels real tests start next year. It’s not very common for rookie coachs to have success. Before everyone nails him to the cross for his choices today, we have to remember that rebuilding and revamping rarely happens in ONE year and ONE draft. Let us wait and enjoy the ride friends.
"It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you dont win" -Brandon Marshall
+1
Totally. He only gets one chance to have his first draft and make the statement that goes along with it. If this guy has a plan (which he clearly does) then who can blame the man for using the draft to fill the plan with as many of his desired pieces as possible.
"Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space."
"It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems just with potatoes" Douglas Adams
by orange&blue_aussie on Apr 26, 2009 1:45 AM MDT up reply actions
I meant to imply
that even if the 37th pick trade was marginal, give the guy a pass mark to let him do what he needs to do.
"Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space."
"It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems just with potatoes" Douglas Adams
by orange&blue_aussie on Apr 26, 2009 1:49 AM MDT up reply actions
I am unsure of any of the picks other than Moreno
And who really knows how he will turn out? I realize that many people are going to disagree for some time on these picks and thats fine and fairly healthy but if you want to feel any better about today just jump over to Silver and Black Pride and you will feel much better. The people blogging on there are in complete disbelief and there is so much bad blood its hard to imagine anything worse than what they are going through.
Its like Lord of the Flies over there…
Thank God for Al Davis
Because if he didn’t do what he did, I would feel much, much worse
At least now we can only have the 31st worst draft
Only problem I have with this analysis,
is I don’t think we needed to trade to get Smith or a player of the same caliber.
Question on the trade
I’ve just scanned a few web sites looking and I’ve not read a definite description of the trade.
Do the Seahawks get Denver’s or Chicago’s pick? Or is it the highest or lowest of the two?
Thanks for any help MHR. I’ve tried and failed!
"Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space."
"It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems just with potatoes" Douglas Adams
by orange&blue_aussie on Apr 26, 2009 12:38 AM MDT reply actions
It appears Seattle receives Denver's natural pick.
scroll down about halfway:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d80ff4515&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true
Great... thanks Boylen
That’s interesting. I’m glad that’s the pick. The consequences of it’s value are in Denver’s own hands.
And the bears traded out of the 2nd round! Apart from Cutler, they haven’t done much to improve have they? Their receiving corp is weak. I wonder how they’ll go next year? That pick really looks like it could be anywhere.
I suppose how you view this trade is directly related to your views on Denver’s chances next year. In my head Denver will be a touch and go play-off team. So maybe around the 18-20 mark for the pick. Given the time value and the extra year Smith gets in the system as opposed to next year’s player. I’m quite comfortable with the value of this trade. Especially given how high they rate Smith as a player.
"Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space."
"It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems just with potatoes" Douglas Adams
by orange&blue_aussie on Apr 26, 2009 12:57 AM MDT up reply actions
It's like trading John Elway for Ryan Leaf
Trading a top 10 first round pick for a second round pick is like trading John Elway for Ryan Leaf.
Good thing we didn't trade a top 10 pick then, huh?
And don’t straw man. Your Elway/Leaf analogy is very off base.
"I'm a Michigan Wolverine, which means I'm the only one who watches 'Rudy' hoping he pulls a hamstring or pops a quad." - Rich Eisen
The difference between Jack Williams and Alphonso Smith
Smith is a better CB whose best scheme matches what McD and Nolan want to run and has a lot more interceptions than Williams.
Hillis/Moreno in '09
Hey ejuiz
Geat post. Could not agree more. Can never go wrong with a 5’ 9" corner. Good thing Bowe and Jackson are not in AFC West.
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