Fun Facts About 2008 - A 2009 Denver Broncos Draft Analysis
by Douglas A. Lee on Apr 27, 2009 4:30 PM MDT
in 2009 NFL Draft - Denver Broncos
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PrintDraftivus Weekend 2009 may be over, but it seems to me that the only draft-related activity as fun as predicting the outcome is in sifting through the results and grading them. Sure, it's a little early to do so; but we all do it, and I'm pretty sure we all seek out what the "experts" have to say in order to validate our own opinions (or cast them aside as idiots). Here are some of the reactions I've seen over the past 24 hours on MHR and across the web, and I paraphrase...
- How could the Broncos not draft more D-Linemen or Linebackers?
- What?! Another running back?! Denver already signed Arrington, Buckhalter and Jordan in addition to having about 12 holdovers.
- More defensive backs? What, are they going to start 9 DBs? How many corners and safeties could the Broncos possibly use?
- Josh McDaniels is a moron because he didn't draft the guys I wanted him to!!!
Personally, here is what I thought as the Draft approached...
- Obviously, we'll come away with at least a couple of D-Linemen, including a nose tackle.
- And of course, we'll end up with an excellent new linebacker.
Obviously, I was wrong. But I'm no expert.
Now, let's examine some undeniable facts...
- The 2008 Denver Broncos were 8-8
- Denver's so-called "explosive offense" scored 370 points, good for 16th-best in the NFL
- They allowed 448 points, which was 3rd-worst in the league
- The Broncos' point differential was -78, or 25th-best league-wide.
- Seven teams had a worse point differential than Denver, and those seven teams all missed the playoffs, averaging a record of 3-13.
- Only one team (Green Bay) with a positive point-differential won fewer than 8 games.
- The Broncos lost to Oakland by 21 points (at home) and at Kansas City by 14 points. The Raiders and Chiefs combined for 5 wins against teams not named the Denver Broncos.
- Denver lost to the Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders, Panthers and Chargers by an aggregate score of 187-67, which averages out to 37.4 to 13.4.
- At various points during the 2008 Season, the Broncos were down to running backs such as P.J. Pope, Cory Boyd, a seventh-rounder in Peyton Hillis, a fifth-rounder in Ryan Torain, and a guy who had been selling mobile phones at the mall (Tatum Bell).
- Denver had the 5th-fewest rushing attempts in the NFL.
- The Broncos' time-of-possession ranked 24th in the league.
- During this same season, the Broncos had folks like Vernon Fox (cut by the Skins), Josh Bell (cut by the Chargers), Josh Barrett (a seventh-rounder), Roderick Rogers (dumped by Minnesota), Calvin Lowry (cast aside by Tennessee), and Herana-Daze Jones (dumped by Cincinnati) either starting or playing crucial roles on the defense.
- The Broncos' pass defense allowed opponents to connect on 67.3% of their attempts, which was 4th worst in the league.
- The Broncos intercepted 6 passes in 2008, 2nd worst only to the Lions. One of those picks was made by DT Marcus Thomas, who promptly fumbled the ball away on the ensuing "runback."
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| Recognize this 2008 Bronco? Me neither. |
I realize these are some depressing numbers, but this is 2009. I offer the stats above to remind everyone that 2008 wasn't such a hot year for our beloved Broncos. The '08 version of the Broncos couldn't control the clock, couldn't produce sustained drives and couldn't hold onto the ball on offense. On defense, they couldn't rush the passer, stop the run, defend the pass or take the ball away. Injuries left us with guys we practically picked up off the street playing running back, safety and cornerback.
Didn't everyone here learn from 2008 that a team can never have enough running backs and defensive backs? Keep in mind that the veterans Denver signed at those positions this offseason, in Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan, Brian Dawkins, Renaldo Hill and Andre' Goodman will all be at least 30 years old this season. They will hopefully provide skill today, but they will definitely not do so in the distant future.
The 2008 Broncos had a lot of holes; while Atlanta and Miami were both wonderful examples of remarkable one-year turnarounds, their stories are exceptions. This team needs to be competitive first; if they can also win more games than they lose in 2009, I see that as a bonus. We're talking about a team which fired almost its entire coaching staff and enters 2009 with a new starting quarterback. For me, the Broncos were so bad in 2008 that I cannot expect every hole to be filled by 2009. We're talking about a process here, and it sure seems that Josh McDaniels, Brian Xanders and Company are making their way towards that end.
Yesterday, we saw a draft strategy we're to this point unfamiliar with. Yes, Mike Shanahan is an all-time great and brought home two Championships. However, when drafting for need over taking the best player, the Broncos ended up with guys like Marcus Nash, Paul Toviessi, Ashley Lelie (over Ed Reed), Jarvis Moss, Tim Crowder, Deltha O'Neal and Willie Middlebrooks. The new regime quite obviously sees the draft through a different viewpoint, and when their top choices went off the board (Raji and Jackson), they chose Knowshon Moreno. Not because they came in wanting a running back, but because they felt he was the best player on the board. That's how Minnesota got Adrian Peterson, by the way.
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| How about this guy? If you do recognize him, you'll probably be glad to know that he's no longer on the Broncos... |
As I mentioned above, I'm no draft maven; but what I like about the "experts" reactions is this - everyone who criticizes the Broncos' 2009 Draft, from Jamie Dukes, to Pete Prisco, to Mel Kiper, to Todd McShay offers this basic thought - they love the players Denver drafted, they just don't think Denver filled the holes they would have chosen to fill. Personally, when I read draft analysis the day after, I want to see that Denver chose players widely accepted as being excellent football players. Used to be that our draft choices were either "undersized," "injured during senior season," "questionable character," "slow for the position," among other lovely tags. Today, they're "solid citizens" and excellent football players, but why do the Broncos need another defensive back or running back? As for where they'll play, I think we should leave that up to the Broncos' Coach and General Manager.
I'm not trying to provide a sunny outlook here; I'm just examining some facts. Some of you are happy about our '09 Draft results, others are bewildered. Both viewpoints are just fine by me - but don't forget the prism of 2008's season when looking at the makeup of the 2009 Broncos.
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"show me a good loser and i'll show you a loser" - coach
Nice!
I totally agree. The coach said he would draft BPA in positions of need, and I believe that’s what he did— you make great arguements above and I’ve read others suggesting that the defensive backfield and offense (in all areas) needed help.
Sure, I would argue that our front seven needs more help, but what the hell do I know? The notion that ButteBronco, Mel Kiper Jr., Mike Mayock, [insert MHR memer or staff member here] know more about the Denver Bronco’s needs is ridiculous.
"Talking tough is easy when it's other people's evil and you're judging what they do or don't believe. It seems to me you'd have to have a hole you're own to point a finger at somebody else's sheet" -- Mike Cooley
For fun,
was the first guy Corey Boyd or PJ Pope?
The second guy I remember well…grrrrrrrr. Lowry is a kickers name….by golley.
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
oh, and that first guy...did he score our only TD against Carolina last year? lol
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
this is a good post
since I’m probably the poster boy around here for unhappiness with the draft, i’ll offer some thoughts on the paraphrasing of my position:
1. That about sums it up.
2. I love Knowshon Moreno, and even the biggest haters of this draft would agree with me. What I don’t get is signing (and committing all kinds of money to) Jordan, Arrington, and Buckhalter if there was a plan for this.
3. Pretty much. I’ve read the idea that there way tons of value here for the future, and I guess I buy that, but how could this be the virtually the ONLY defensive position there was value? Why Bandaid these spots in the first place?
4. i guess some people are saying this, but I’m not one of them.
I’ll add a couple no one seems to want to address:
5. the horrible trades to move up. trading a first, potentially a high one in a deep draft, for a mid 2nd is borderline robbery. Look no further than the Seattle blogs and boards to see how ecstatic they are — that’s all the confirmation we should need we were fleeced. and then the trade of 2 3rds to go to 64th (and a low 4th) for a player probably still there in the 3rd. why? Or the trade of a 5th next year for the QB? That shouldn’t have been needed if we’d just held onto picks…
6. Everyone talks about how we had to replace all of the age in the defensive backfield…yet we signed all those old guys to long contracts ourselves! So we made a need, then there’s accolades going around when we fix that need? O_o We could have just skipped the whole committing all this money to aging players thing to begin with, right? Note: I like the Dawkins signing still.
I realize this is a new strategy, the whole BPA thing, and I love it at some level. We’ve been drafting for need for FAR too long, I agree. But there should be moderation in all things, and I think we see-sawed over to BPA too much, far too much. There should be a balance between need and BPA.
Again though, nice post. The team is better than before the draft…I just wish we hadn’t mortgaged the future or ignored need so much.
I think our defense was upgraded the instant Mike Shanahan and Bob Slowik were fired.
We are underdogs this year. I love it! Play with the big ole chip on the shoulder please!
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
If nothing else doctor and Zappa...
I believe the defense is instantly better because they aren’t “second class citizens” among the team anymore. They are just as important as the offense. Having a DC that cares about that already helps tons.
That was said by Champ Bailey, btw.
"It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you dont win" -Brandon Marshall
Who also said
That Slowick was one of the best coaches he ever worked with (prior to him becoming DC)
To thedoctor in response to #5 of "this is a good post"
We traded next years 1st for this years high second, not mid second. Next year first round picks are worth this years high 2nd rounders each and every draft year. We didn’t get screwed on that deal.
We traded 2 3rds for a the last pick in the 2nd and a 4th, not just for a 64th as you say we did.
It’s okay to be upset at these moves, just please be accurate when you express your displeasure. Trying to exaggerate the facts to support your view point is misleading to those who don’t know the true facts and invalidates your argument somewhat in the eyes of those who do.
If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.
ok, high second whatever, and i believe i mentioned the 4th pick at some point.
this is nitpicking and semantics, and changes no ones view, least of all yours or mine. :)
Don't let the facts...
get in the way of your argument…
“whatever” and “at some point”
really?
by Douglas A. Lee on Apr 28, 2009 2:55 PM MDT up reply actions
Wouldn't it be fair to say
though, that the defensive backfield need was created by the “previous administration” as it were? The fact that they both signed new guys as FA’s and drafted several more could also be seen as evidence that the defensive backfield was abysmal last year. There is a new GM and a new coach, and they inherited that disaster. Champ Bailey was the only bright spot and he was injured part of last year. We all agree that Dawkins was a good signing. But I’d argue that the lack of talent at safety especially last year, and the lack of depth at corner was due to some bad acquisitions the previous few years. I do like Josh Barrett but I can’t blame the new coaches and GM for wanting to restock that cabinet, because it was a mess last year.
A Question Doc
1. What would you have done to fix the secondary considering what was available in FA and in the draft?
This is not a slam or anything, just curious on how you would have handled the situation if you were in charge. I liked what we did in that aspect, I however am not a fan of the pick up of all the RB’s, especially with Knowshon on board, but really, how much of a cap hit are we really going to take when some of these guys are issued walking papers? From what I remember of the signings, not really a whole lot.
BtD
If you think I hate you, you may have a point.
a good question. im not as well versed in the exact guys out there in FA. I’m not sure I would have pursued the secondary as hard. Maybe just a signing of Dawkins? Maybe some younger/cheaper guys at FS and RCB than Hill and Goodman, so as not to create this old secondary business?
I also would have gone after a front 7 guy in FA. Olshansky would have been an interesting signing, and certainly would have made passing on the front 7 like we did safer. I’m sure there were other lesser names too.
In the draft, I know for sure what I would have done: let the draft come to me. No trading next year’s #1 for sure. No trading up for players with a good chance to fall to the very position I have. And certainly harder negotiating if did want to make a deal. Our moves were such huge overpayment they seemed desperate.
I will admit, there were a few guys out there...
but they came with hefty price tags. Compared to what else was out there, I was not too disappointed. Also, with the number of holes that we had, they would have eaten alot of valuable cap space and if you look at what we signed our “old” secondary too, they were cap friendly and good blue collar players. Not flashy or stars, but solid footballl players with good attitudes.
I would have loved Olshansky too, but one thing to remember he had alot of bad blood with Denver. I would not be suprised if that played into his decision on coming here or not.
I agree 100% with your last point, I like the players we picked up, but I certainly did not like how we did it. I thought it was alot of rookie mistakes, but I was willing to give it the benefit of the doubt this year. Next year is a different story.
BtD
If you think I hate you, you may have a point.
I think a big reason for signing guys like Hill and Dawkins
was their hunger to win. Everyone wants to win, but guys like Dawkins who are clearly respected across the whole league, I think guys like Dawkins want a ring more. Having a guy that’s this close to the end of his career is beneficial for us. His leadership abilities are second to none. But I think his desire for a championship ring will make him rise to the occasion every Sunday, and when you have someone as effective as him on your defense, it works. He WILL fire up everyone on the defense, and on the whole team for that matter.
Not to blaspheme in the Denver Broncos haven here, but maybe the whole team wants to win a Super Bowl for a guy like Dawkins, just the same way they all did for Elway. Elway has always been Denver’s man. He always will be, but Dawkins is such a force around the league. Every player and coach wants to see him win the big one. Hopefully he can with us, we’re his last shot.
Off topic, here’s a really cool fact about BDawk: He is the only player in NFL history to record a sack, an interception, forced fumble, and touchdown reception in a single game. (2002 v. Houston)
"It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you dont win" -Brandon Marshall
You make a great point
For the last two years it didn’t even seem as though our defense really cared a whole lot. I can’t wait to see the passion this year. That alone will get them off the field earlier. Dawkins can tackle, Champ can tackle Goodman can tackle and Woodyard loves to hit and tackle. Andra Davis too. There will passion and excitement. These guys are gonna wanna get after it. I can’t wait!
by dmitchell624 on Apr 27, 2009 7:53 PM MDT up reply actions
You sign those "old" vets to give the draft picks you just brought in
time to develop without the pressure of having to be “the man” right now. You also sign “old” (30 isn’t old, i.e. Hill, Goodman & Champ) to pass along the knowledge and experiences they have had in the NFL onto these young prospects so that when its their turn they are well versed in the ways of the NFL and how to continually get better while maintaining the hunger to improve.
That’s why you sign them even with a plan to draft more.
"You can make mistakes, but you are not a failure until you blame others for those mistakes." -John Wooden
exactly.
and for the record, I don’t think a players 9th or 10th season makes them OLD by any means, but it seems that everyone thinks that’s an old player.
"It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you dont win" -Brandon Marshall
Randall
Any chance you are going to do a breakdown of the UFA’s? A couple of them sounded very interesting and I would love to see a take on em by you.
BtD
If you think I hate you, you may have a point.
3 FA pickups today that look good
Chris Baker, nose tackle, Hampton
Baker comes off a tremendous junior campaign in which he looked like a one-man show, and he created a lot of opportunities for his team with the ability to be a disruptive force. He?s an athletic player with good size and one who could eventually develop into a starter at the next level if he keeps his focus on the field and stays in condition year-round. Baker is likely to be drafted much later than his talents warrant, but he is definitely a player to get excited about. Third/Fourth Round
Lee Robinson, inside linebacker, Alcorn State
SI Analysis: Robinson is an explosive linebacker best playing downhill. He possesses the size, skill, and mentality to be used on the inside of a 3-4 defense. Fourth/Fifth Round
Rulon Davis, defensive end, California
Davis is an athletic lineman who makes a lot of plays in every direction of the field when he’s in the lineup. He possesses terrific size, growth potential, and has the ability to start as either a two-gap end or in a conventional system opposite right tackle. He will only get better as he physically matures and receives more playing time on the field, yet Davis must start to show durability if he’s to ever meet his potential. Fourth/Fifth Round
It's all good and I would not have been able to either.
If you think I hate you, you may have a point.
Ayep, those were 3 of em and I also was intrigued by these two:
Pedescleaux transferred from the University of Minnesota to close out his collegiate career at Northern Iowa. He recorded 62 tackles, 11 1/2 tackles for loss and 6 1/2 sacks to earn All-Missouri Valley Conference first-team honors last season. He blocked six kicks at Northern Iowa, as well, where he also played on the basketball team. In fact, he signed with Minnesota as a basketball player before transferring.
Shelton leaves Temple as the school’s all-time leader in kick return yards with 2,507, shattering the previous record by almost 1,000 yards. He averaged 31.3 yards per return last season, leading the nation. As a senior, he played in 11 games with four starts. He finished his career with 64 catches for 784 and four touchdowns.
BtD
If you think I hate you, you may have a point.
thedoc
I can certainly see your view point. over all I am happy with the draft, it looks like the broncs picked up some nice players that will contribute this year or the next. While I dont think all the trading up was “horrible” it did strike me as being a little jumpy and hair trigger. Maybe it was the rush of being in control of his first draft. Or pehaps it was the result of their approach of having fewer players on their big board. Fewer options make you more desperate to get the ones you do have rated well. My thought is that you should do what it takes to get the players you want. If the trading a first round pick for Alphonso Smith is the worst mistake Mc D ever makes in the draft I can live with that. I remember Shannahan wasting four or five first round picks on guys like Lelie, Middlebrooks, etc. No doubt McD made some mistakes this draft but nothing egregious.
by podtosociety on Apr 27, 2009 6:21 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't have all the answers for you doctor but for #2...
He signed those players because he would rather have them for depth rather than Young (Injury Prone), Hall (Fumble problems) and Torain (Injury history – will be around but can’t be depended on)…so
The signing of those guys were as if McDaniels said – I don’t have any running backs except Hillis, so lets restock the whole unit and let the best survive.
Moreno in 2009! - Check
Mays in 2010!
Also remember
that he picked up the FA RBs at a time when he still assumed that JC would be our QB, and probably had a different view of the needs of the offense. For at least a couple of reasons, if we still have JC we probably would not have drafted Moreno. Once JC is out of the picture, McD goes with the flow and rethinks his offense. That’s my take.
AND...
If Raji had been there at 12, Knowshon Moreno would be a Charger. Why does everyone assume that who Denver drafted this weekend were the players they hoped to get coming into the draft? Things change!
by Douglas A. Lee on Apr 27, 2009 8:58 PM MDT up reply actions
Good points you guys...
I often wonder how one could know what ingredients we need at that store when we don’t know what we are cooking for dinner?
Moreno in 2009! - Check
Mays in 2010!
Hey, Steve O'
Do you cook, too? Wow. LOL
(Actually, me too, heh, heh – even grow my own herbs on the veranda.)
Lets not forget that
free agency comes BEFORE the draft. You don’t ahve a choice about signing guys then before others take them, if you are trying to make the team better. From a team building perspective it would work better if free agency came AFTER the draft, both for professional scouting and contract purposes.
Maybe in some future cba :)
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 28, 2009 12:09 AM MDT up reply actions
A couple of things.
Frist, just because there is a defensive player on the board, doesn’t mean he can come into this system and be better than guys already here. All the players that were lousy are gone. We have added at least 3 players by FA to the defensive line and they all look like they can play and be productive. Why do another desperation draft like the one that gave us Moss and Crowder?
I like what McDaniels did and I agree on the ability of the players that were left. There wasn’t impact help at those picks. Moreno on the other hand will be an immediate impact player this year in this system. The FA signings were made knowing that we needed to upgrade the RB position, but they are all role players. The by committee approach would have worked for this year, but now it just got eons better.
We have added some bee for the defensive line with some UDFA signings that may work, but if they don’t we have not given jp the farm to get them. Everyone of these draft picks is quality that has a chance to come in and compete right away.
More than one expert has said that trading up to get Smith was a value pick. I love the looks of the guy. He’s a player. We added depth to the offense, young depth to the dfensive backfield, talent to the special teams and now we are working to improve the the DL still. Ayers is a monster. Apparently he ate Oher alive in the Senior Bowl and everyone thinks he is a top shelf left tackle. His highlights show he can rush from the edge, inside the tackle and even on stunts inside the guard. He can shed blocks to make the tackle and his motor seems to be full out all the time.
Signing leaders to a backfield that was bereft of talent was the best move of FA IMHO. You don’t start the season with rookies at safety and corner in the NFL if you want to win. But we got olid back up for them if they go down. These guys are brigth, talented and they will be learning from the best on the field. There is no contradiction to signing leaders and rookies to the same position.
You aren’t suggesting Dalton and Hill play on special teams I assume. Or were you happy with that part of our game last season. ST has been as much a need as the defense has. McDaniels is building a solid foundation here and with a group that is going to be good this year.
"Now we have them where we want them"
-Kieth Bishop - On the Denver 2 yard line, Cleveland Ohio, 1987
no one is suggesting a desperation draft like the moss/crowder draft, just balancing of need and BPA. Heck, even the supposed-BPA kings — the patriots — took a few players based on need! And to suggest the CFA signings will be the answer…I mean, nothing would make me happier than 3 starters from the CFA ranks, but CFA signings are a long shot crap shot at best. i wonder what the stats on most of them even seeing the field are…1 in 10? 20?
And you say all 3 DL ones will be productive? Not buying it. :)
thedoctor...
RE #2 –
It seems like I’ve heard this point made a 100+ times by a lot of people. I don’t understand this argument at all. First off, I doubt if there were no RB free agent acquisitions, you would be any happier about the Knowshon pick. Second, a lot of the RB’s we had last year were not very good. Why wouldn’t we try to bring in some new talent, FA’s and draft picks? Third, this is the NFL, just because we sign someone, doesn’t mean we have to honor the contract, or even pay them a dime outside of the signing bonus, if there even was a signing bonus, so what is the big fuss about the FA’s? We bring back last years group, a few new FA’s, and a couple of rookies and let them compete for the roster spots.
If there is some fundamental issue that I’m missing here regarding free agents, please explain it to me because I don’t see the problem with bringing in the new blood.
Taylor Mays in '10
I would indeed be happier with the Moreno pick without the 3 expensive FA signings at the same spot. It would imply an ability to balance need and BPA.
Why wouldn’t we try to bring in some new talent, FA’s and draft picks? Because there were more needs than just the secondary or RB. The new aquisitions needed to be spread around at the various needs, or one weakness will swamp out the gains made elsewhere. We have a really good looking group in the secondary, but I’m of the opinion (and I would say this is even common knowledge) that a secondary is only as good as the pass rush and run stopping in front of it, not the other way around.
It’s true that we don’t have to honor contracts, but it’s considered extremely bad form to cut vet FAs after they’ve been signed. why would future desirable FAs come to Denver when they know the team may just cut them in a couple months after they move their families, etc? It’s yet another way of ignoring the future. It’s also a waste of the bonus money, as you say, and bonus money is always a large part of FA contracts.
Yawn.
Those three “expensive” FA’s cost us little really. 4 years $10 million? Come on. Knowshon Moreno’s contract alone will equal what we are paying all three of those guys combined.
You will be the first hater to buy a Knowshon jersey. You watch.
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
You keep reffering to the "expensive" FA sigings at RB
Where exactly have you seen an info that makes you think our 3 FA RB’s have “expensive” signing bonuses? I’ve been doing some digging and all the info I found for JJ & Buckhalter have said financial details have yet to be disclosed. I did find info on LaMont Jordan however. His signing bonus was $500,000 (not exactly expensive as you indicated). Please let me know where you are coming up with your “facts” on this detail you keep focusing on.
If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.
I'll dig up the page later
But the guarantee was $1.8 million each, I believe. Not insignificant, but not back-breaking.
And there’s always the chance that Selvin Young is gone, Denver keeps more RBs than is necessary….and either waits for another team to lose their backs (see Seattle, WRs, and Colbert last year) to get an extra pick, or injuries hit Denver again (shudder), but insurance is there.
~Uffdah
Jesus, I can't believe I'm having this conversation...
Yes, you’re right, there were more concerns than DB and RB. But we got THE BEST G***AMN RB IN THE DRAFT! Why do you refuse to acknowledge that? Who did you want at #12? Please tell me. Also please tell me who you wanted the team to sign in free agency. I think we did a great job in free agency, but apparently you know of some young, cheap, 3 – 4 studs that I don’t know about, so please enlighten me. WHO? Please don’t say Haynesworth or Peppers (who I know is not a FA) because you will be walking into a swarm of questions that will resemble an angry bee hive.
If Orakpo was so great, why did every 3 – 4 team pass on him? I’ll tell you that I don’t know, and I spent every available hour watching game tape and reviewing scouting reports. But the consensus was from every 3 – 4 team,that he was passable for some other player. These decisions were made by multiple GM’s who were advised by hundreds of different sources, and I have a feeling that they had a little better grasp on the situation than you or I.
The cutting a vet FA argument is the worst argument I’ve seen you make in the last week. Come on, even you don’t believe that. Who cares about bad form, really? I guarantee you every owner, player, coach, FO worker down to clerical knows that this is a business. Whatever generates money and is good for the bottom line will stay. If you can prove to me that any of these FA’s have moved their family to Denver since their signing, I’ll personally buy you a steak dinner. Either you produce and beat out your competition, or you’re gone. Everyone in the game, and most of us watching it understand this. Nothing is guaranteed, least of all in mid April.
Taylor Mays in '10
Trading away the 1st round pick
That Seattle is happy about the deal isnt proof that it was bad. Clearly McD and crew thought they were getting a good value so I assume they are happy too, as are many of the posters here. Is the fact that people here are happy with the deal – recognizing there are some exceptions, including you – evidence that Seatttle got fleeced?
denver fans: arguing back and forth about the move
denver media: universally says it was overpayment
seattle fans and media: universally ecstatic
yeah, i would say the unanimity of the seattle reaction is pretty telling, and the debate in denver just as telling.
bleh.
The Bears and ESPN say we screwed up the Cutler situation too. Screw them. I am happy that whiny baby is gone. As for Seattle, they got a good deal…but only because everyone and their mother(and you) expects the Broncos go win no more than 5 games next year. I think we go 8-8, or better. The Bears, I think they go 9-7 or so. Either way, we got the guy Mike Nolan wanted. Enough said.
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
When the MSM start liking our moves
That’s when I start to get worried. Do you really buy the crap they are selling?
If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.
I really don't see how we mortgaged the future...
we still have picks in every round next year.
Regarding the Smith pick, we traded a1st round pick next year for an early 2nd round pick this year – which would most likely be between 10 and 20 slots worse than the pick we would have next year. By most accounts there is not that much of a drop off in talent in those 10 to 20 slots. If the staff really loves the guy and thinks he can be a long term starter for our team then it seems worth it to me as a fan.
Personally, I don’t like short ball hawking cornerbacks and would prefer a tall ball hawking cornerback, but if this is the guy they think can fit the bill, then the swap of draft picks just doesn’t seem like that big of a deal.
by anotherNYCbroncofan on Apr 28, 2009 8:05 AM MDT up reply actions
please tell me that we didn’t mortgage the future when seattle has a top 10 pick from us next year. I hope not, but I am pretty sure it will be.
Valid concern
But Denver still gets to play Kansas City and Oakland twice each, and I think they’ll show up for those games (if there was one thing that annoyed me more than anything, it was a team that didn’t seem to show up for division rivals!) I think the Bengals and Browns are good bets to win, and we’ll be tough at home (yes, I’m chugging kool-aid here :o) ). Worst case scenario, I think Denver picks in the mid-round…while Chicago doesn’t do much better.
~Uffdah
You're right doc...
I’m tired of this argument. Let’s all just cut our own throats now, why deal with the season. F’ it, lets do it, you first then me. I swear, I’ll end it all right after you.
Taylor Mays in '10
A couple quick points
Running on three hours of sleep, and haven’t done as much research here…I’ll put more up something if I have it:
Regarding the secondary, I can’t speak for other members of the secondary, but I seem to recall that Dawkins contract was a five-year deal…but was structured in such a way that he could be released with very little penalty after the first two years (at which point, Champ’s contract is either up or nearly up…I believe it will be done).
Also, Chibronx makes some points in this post that suggest that the biggest issue with the defense may NOT have been the defensive line. Don’t get me wrong, nobody will confuse Denver’s front 7 with an elite one just yet…but there were a disproportionate number of “long” runs. (My question there is: did those “long” runs go down in proportion when Webster was out and both Larsen and Woodyard were in…might need to research that.) It may be that a more competent group of tacklers in the BACK 8 may do more for Denver than a single lineman could do.
That wasn’t as coherent as I’d hoped. I need tea.
~Uffdah
Trades
We traded next years 1st for this years high second, not mid second. Next year first round picks are worth this years high 2nd rounders each and every draft year. We didn’t get screwed on that deal.
We traded 2 3rds for a the last pick in the 2nd and a 4th, not just for a 64th as you say we did.
It’s okay to be upset at these moves, just please be accurate when you express your displeasure. Trying to exaggerate the facts to support your view point is misleading to those who don’t know the true facts and invalidates your argument somewhat in the eyes of those who do.
If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.
The Draft "Experts"
That are shaking their heads and questioning the Bronco draft, are the same “Experts” that are saying the Patriots, and to a lesser extent one or two other teams had solid drafts for following the same strategy of drafting the best available rather than drafting for need, that the Broncos followed. So which is it? If you’re not a media darling of the moment you get knocked for doing the same thing the so called ‘dynasty’ is doing? It just serves to solidify the hypocrisy and lack of knowledge and understanding in the MSM.
Well, Denver doing something different and against the tide doesn't put peoples asses in seats...
But following every other team that follows the other will…People don’t want to be challenged to think, they want things how they are fed to them. No different.
"It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you dont win" -Brandon Marshall
I just wish people would check before the jump to conclusions
There is a slight premium evident in our transactions, which suggests to me that Denver pushed to get a lot of the trades done. However, it’s hardly dramatic and is on a par with what a substantial proportion of other teams yielded.
McZanders clearly went after what they wanted, and they could even be accused of being a ‘prodigal son,’ but there’s only a small bit of truth to the charge.
What we really need is an explanation of why specific moves were taken. We’ve received some explanation but it’s inadequate for PR purposes in the McDaniels-hater climate we’re in. The moves themselves are fine but people aren’t operating on normal cognitive arrangement. It’s what I call the “all roads lead to Rome” argument. Every move that fans don’t understand (they don’t understand most) is taken as further evidence of the our “young” HC is being hoodwinked again. The cognitive default setting is that anything is proof of McDaniels’ blunders. Prejudice — and that’s what this is — doesn’t need proof, it thrives on ignorance.
"experts?" -- asymmetry of power in bargaining
Firstly, Casserly was just on TV defending the deal, so this so-called consensus opinion of experts (ex-jocks are experts??!!) doesn’t hold water.
The reason I jumped in is because what’s being assumed here is that there’s an even playing field and that all trades occur on this field. Trade terms vary with 1 – initiator v. respondent, 2 – time, discounting for future value, 3 – willingness v. recalcitrant. This is just my list, off the top of my head, but they’re all verifiable.
Our trade terms in this draft WEREN’T different than some teams, but teams like New England, and others, were able to obtain more favorable terms. WHY? Probably because they either didn’t ‘need’ to trade or weren’t the “initiator” of the trade. There are also some other factors, such as actually having picks available for trade, but the playing field is not level, and comparisons between trades that assume there’s a common rate of exchange are misleading.
Take a look at the trades, HERE.
This about sums it up
(and thank you nyc — this is what I was trying to say in an earlier thread:)
However, when drafting for need over taking the best player, the Broncos ended up with guys like Marcus Nash, Paul Toviessi, Ashley Lelie (over Ed Reed), Jarvis Moss, Tim Crowder, Deltha O’Neal and Willie Middlebrooks.
The Broncos were a bad team last year. Really bad. Their defense was horrible but their offense wasn’t always so efficient either. We sifted through DBs and RBs like they were pistachio nuts. Anyway, this is a really sobering reminder as to how bad they were, and how the drafting for need over drafting best players strategy is often a disaster.
great post
I hadn’t thought of the draft in that context, and I had sort of dismissed just how bad we were last year, you did a great job of providing some perspective on just what we had last year.
Great and insightful wrtie up dude!
Hey people relax. Every draft is unknown until three years down the road. The Broncos may get six starters out of this or none. The only two guys they got that will start are Moreno and Ayers but even that isn’t a given. And from everything I say and read this was one of the weakest drafts in terms of talent on defense in years so if Josh says he saw better value in what he picked then I will trust him. He knows a hell of alot more about talent than any of us weekend draft hackers do. And maybe just maybe the defensive front seven talent we have, Mike Nolan, thinks is better than they have played as Shannie never cared enough about defense to keep any continuity. Three D coor. in three years, Four in five and boatloads of free agents. None of these guys have ever been given a chance to succeed under Shannies tutelage. You have to remember fellas that this defense the last three years was the worst in Broncos history and that all goes under Shannies watch. It may take two ro three years to rebuild and this draft just wasn’t the one to do that. Don’t discount how great Moreno will be he is a complete back running, catching and blocking and he is very coachable. With one of the best lines in football and one of the most talent laden young offenses in football he will be a difference maker. Finally this team wasn’t going to win a Super Bowl this year or next with the piss poor defense any way so lets give Josh and Xanders a couple of years to mold this team in their own way. Why is it no one wants to give them a chance. It seems everyone is writing them off before they have even coached these guys or played a meaningful game. Shannie and JayC are still here we are looking at another 7-9 season with no upside. I beleive they may be 8-8 this year but the upside will be enormous. Have faith fellas!!!!
If D-Will was an example...
Who’s to say Alphonso Smith doesn’t come in and beat Andre’ Goodman for the starting spot across from Champ? Now, I hope someone doesn’t write “well, why did they sign Goodman if they knew they were going to draft Smith” – the answer to that would be that you don’t sign free agents having any clue who you will draft. There are too many ways the draft could play out. Just like B.J. Raji being taken before Denver had a chance to get him. What? Jacksonville wanted to trade down? How does anyone know that? Maybe they did earlier last week, but maybe once the first 2 OTs went, they decided to stick at #8 so they could get their man.
Look, we don’t have to assume that McDaniels and Xanders are right in everything they do, but I think it’s fair to presume they consider other possibilities, perhaps even pursue them. So many people assume the trades are there to be had, but that is often not really the case. Just like Denver had opportunities to move down but didn’t – are other fans elsewhere saying “why the heck didn’t we trade up to 12?”
by Douglas A. Lee on Apr 27, 2009 8:54 PM MDT up reply actions
Good counter-argument NYC.
I like that.
"It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you dont win" -Brandon Marshall
Also......
I agree that alot of “experts” didn’t like their draft only because they didn’t fill needs but as said above they loved their picks. These guys all have football player un their belts not just wanting to be football stars. There is a big difference. None of these guys were reaches so lets see how it plays out!
What can I say? Just what I've been saying all along about the upcoming season...
.
.
.
Playoffs here we come !!!
Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Little, Wright, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.
HA!
Sorry, CB – I actually meant to put the “Fun” in quotations. Whoops.
by Douglas A. Lee on Apr 27, 2009 8:56 PM MDT up reply actions
Great job, and rec'd!
Fun facts and funny comments (No, I didn’t know who that picture was of either! I had to cheat and check it out!)
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
Some facts were fun others sobering - great post regardless!
Rec’d!!
Moreno in 2009! - Check
Mays in 2010!
The most truthful statement
made so far was by Legendary:
Fair enough, it just boils down to my lack of faith in the new administration.
Like most everybody in the world we come to a decision on a gut level regarding something first, then use thinking to find ways to justify the decision. The fact is, and we all know this, no one has any idea how any of this will turn out. The real question behind all of the discussions about the draft is, do you have faith in the new administration or not.
I personally do, so I allow myself to be convinced by all the (being as objective as I can possibly be, very good and convincing) arguments as to why the draft turned out well for us. On a gut level I like the intelligence displayed by McD in his pressers, I like the idea of moving to a more disciplined team and I felt early on very uncomfortable with the “don’t fix it (the offense) if it ain’t broken” approach that was so common in the MSM and even here before the draft.
But some of the arguments on the other side are very good, too.
The great think about MHR: discussions have been great and probably the need to bolster one position or another in this debate has lead us to some analysis for both sides of the issues that has gone way beyond what we otherwise could have gotten, not to mention the civility here. (I can’t even force myself now to read blogs off SI or DP any more.)
I love the new approach!
I get frustrated by all of this why sign all the stopgaps if we plan on drafting players at the same position. The whole point of BPA is you don’t know what positions you will exactly take. You are more open to drafting all positions and you don’t have any idea during free agency what positions are gonna have value at what pick. To me that is rediculous. Not trying to be rude but seriously . Anyways i am also dissapointed we didn’t get more help up front, but we did get a first round pick at DE. After all there are only 3 DL starting spots. Were we suppose to get all three this year? That is silly if Ayers mans one DE spot that leaves about a half dozen other players to compete for the other spot. As i side note i can’t be anymore happy about our return to a running football team. Which will help our defense more than any NT in the league.
Great Post nyc, I really don,t follow alot of college football---so my exposure to the draft and the college
players comes primarily from you fine folks here on MHR. I really enjoy the articles and posts ( Horse Tracks )
written by the staff and other fans. I became feed up with msm and the east coast, larger market bias years
ago. Its been refreshing and very educational finding MHR.
nyc, your take of the drafts of 2008 and how it compares to 2009, really brings alot into focus. In my opinion,
atleast from what I,ve heard—-the greatest complement you can give to a player, is call him a “Football Player”.
I believe the new approach for Denver is just that, fill the locker room full of “Football Players”, not only in the
draft but also F. A.
McD has a plan—I have nothing to base it on, but I believe he is the real deal, and 2009 will be a turn around
year—-we will be smiling in Dec.
GO BRONCOS
Rec’d
Real Power, comes with the realization that One cannot change the Moment;
only ones perception of it: Atitude! JQM
Somebody…. sorry Im losing track of all the information I’ve absorbed to day… sporting news or Fox Sports…somebody rated all the teams drafts.
For the Western Division this is how they ranked the four teams:
Denver A-
KC B+
SD D
Oak. F
I have never seen anyone say Denver had the best draft of the diivision, ever that I can remember. Not the day after anyway. I would say McDaniels and Xanders are off to a good start.
"Now we have them where we want them"
-Kieth Bishop - On the Denver 2 yard line, Cleveland Ohio, 1987
Do we have to remember 2008.....
Lord we were painful to watch at times.
Hopefully this won’t create a shite storm, but we didn’t start losing in Mile High until Cutler was our QB….. He really did have a problem in the red zone and I believe it will follow him to Chicago. The simple fact of this draft is that we are, without a doubt IMHO, going to be better in the RZ offensively. We were already MUCH better defensively after FA, not that it was hard to improve on 2008…yikes, and the results from this weekend’s draft just solidified the fact that we are better than last year…..I believe we are immensely better but that’s an unknown until next January LOL.
Thanks for posting a great baseline on how we judge this year’s performance!
A proud prognostication of 10-6 in 2009!!!
We didn't start losing at Mile High until....
we lost Al Wilson and Trevor Pryce. I will always believe that the number one problem over the past three years was Shanahan’s inability to deal effectively with the defensive side of the team.
by anotherNYCbroncofan on Apr 28, 2009 8:19 AM MDT up reply actions
I did have man-love for Pryce as well
and that’s a valid addition as to why we started losing at home. Well said.
A proud prognostication of 10-6 in 2009!!!
was not a fan of this draft...
But you do make me feel better. Thanks.
I still feel like the team needs more than 8 wins this season to be successful. There have already been seasons of sacrifice. Shanahan could have stayed for another 7-9 season.
Now that they are here, lets get to work. All Ready!
Look back at the stats again
And tell me the 2008 Broncos deserved to win 8 games. For me, they overachieved well above their talent level. The 2009 Broncos can win 8 games and also be a major improvement over 2008.
by Douglas A. Lee on Apr 28, 2009 10:35 AM MDT up reply actions
maybe...
Jon Gruden was known for saying “In this league, you get what you deserve”. They lost games they should not have also.
If the Broncos are better on defense, special teams, and scoring, they should be better. Right? Coaching and roster upgrades means better preparation and execution, right?
I think we as fanatics should ask for more than 8-8. That has been the result basically for the past three years. The Broncos can do better. We pay for better. We are not the Chargers, Chiefs or raiders. The history of the franchise is better.
I WANT WINNERS. Lets go. All Ready!
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