The math behind McDaniels

In wake of the Cutler saga and everything that the new coach has done to rattle some of us Bronco fans and certainly the local sports radio market, I've been forced to dig into last years stats and see what lies beneath the surface of our defense and offensive rankings.

We all know

Offense YPG -396 (2nd) Points/g - 23.1 (16th)

Defense YPG - 374.6 (29th) Points/g - 28.0 (30th)

At first glance it is clear that our offense accumulated a lot of yards, but struggled to put the ball in the end zone and between the uprights. The defense, well, was no better than 3rd worst any way you look at it.

Naturally, our first reaction would be find a way to stick the ball in the endzone and take drastic action to improve the defense in any way possible.

Below are some stats, split into games we won and games we lost

                                   W                      L

Offense  YPG       423                 377

Offense PPG       30.75               15.5

Defense YPG       375                  372

Defense PPG       22.6                 33.3

Off. ToP                  30.37               26.75    (avg, 28.75 (the decimal is 10ths of a minute, not seconds)

From this breakdown we can see that offense always put up big yards, but scored half as many points in losses. The defense, consistently gave up about 375 ypg but 50% more points in losses.  So, both sides consistently gave up big yards, but there is a bigger difference in the offensive scoring than in the defenses ability to keep points off the scoreboard.

The Offense clearly struggles to put the ball in the endzone, even while racking up big yardage

The Deffense just couldn't stop anyone.

So, which is worse? Is the poor defense responsible for the additonal burden on Jay and cause for 18 interceptions? Is their inability to stop anything why Jay had so much pressure to force throws and carry the team on his back?..maybe.

If you look at ToP (Time of Posession), When winning the offense and defense were, on average, on the field for 30 min. each. When losing, the defense was on the field for 6.5 minutes longer than when they were winning. 6 of the worst 16 defenses in the NFL had ToP in their favor.

However, this does not solve anything. It is equally as important for the defense to get off the field as it is for the offfense to sustain drives and keep the opposing defense on the field. So who is worse?

                                                          W                      L                        avg

Offensive time/ drive               3.05 min.             2.45 min           2.77 min

Defensive time/drive               2.96 min              3.06 min          2.99 min

There is not much difference in time per drive against the Broncos Defense, but there is a substantial difference in the offense drive time wins and loses. The defense had less time to rest in between drives.

Further

                                                                W                  L

Offensive TO's and 3 n' outs                 28                52

Defensive TO's and 3 n' outs              39                  31

In conclusion, it is clear that our defense was just not good last year, but it was not as aweful as it appears. The offense did little to support it's defense by turning the ball over and failing to sustain drives. The offensive production was inflated by poor field position which had the opposite effect on the defense.

So, when McDaniels suggest that the offense and special teams need just as much improvement as the defense, he has a point and there is legit data to back it up.

This being said, improving time of posession, field position and offensive turnovers will only do so much to help the defense, it is clear that last years defense was below average. So it still puzzles me as to why didn't we throw 1 or two more pics at our front seven?

McDaniels sees promise in your young front 7. There are not many defensive lineman that make a big impact in their first two years. The 'busts' Thomas, Moss and Crowder are entering their third year of service. Dumerville is entering his 4th. From the last years D line, only K. Peterson and Ekuban have more than 4 years of service.  

According to ESPN.com..

The Steelers have 7 D lineman with 5 years of service or more

Redskins have 7

Patriots have 6

Giants have 5

Ravens have 4

Eagles have 4

Reggie Hayward had 8.5 and then 11.5 sacks starting in his 3rd year

Bertrand Berry didn't have more than 6 sacks in a season until his 5th year

Trevor Price's first 4 years went like this: 2, 8.5, 13, 12 sacks.

This obviously isn't the sole reason for the defensive woes in Denver, but you get the point. McDaniels obviously sees something in what we have here to not make some kind of move for more help on the D line via the draft. I wouldn't be surprised if we are all surprised next fall.

Use the force young Jedi