The case for Knowshon at #12

by Sharpe as a Tack on Apr 3, 2009 4:06 PM MDT

With the twelfth overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft, the Denver Broncos select:

Knowshon Moreno, running back from Georgia

This is the scenario I feel is the most likely, and most ideal all things considered. ARE YOU NUTS?!?! you ask, thinking of our already full stable of Buckhalter, Arrington, Jordan, Torain, Hillis, Young, and Hall. Stay with me here...

Moreno's talent is superlative. I take that as a given. If you don't see that, you and I are watching very different football games. I won't even try to argue that. Given that fact, is he worth #12? Absolutely. A 6-star talent like him is worth a top-ten pick. An argument could be made with some decency that he would be available at #18. Perhaps, but that's taking a HUGE risk with such a stellar talent. Moving on. So, will he fit in? Can he be our guy?

Edit 4/4/09: I am blockquoting this because it seems in the discussion on this and other posts that this fact is being overlooked. McDaniels has made it clear that no-one's job is safe, everyone will have to work for their spot on the roster, and he will utilize people according to the skill set they have and the situation they are presented with. It is impossible to overemphasize this point: NUMBER OF GUYS ALONE MEANS NOTHING. Neither does the fact that we just signed them this year as a free agent. What matters is need, and we DO NEED a guy with Moreno's skill set to move forward with our QB situation in flux.

It's obvious that the new look of the Broncos is team first above ALL ELSE. Moreno passes that test. So why use such a high pick on a position of little need? Well, it depends on what you mean by "need." The trio we picked up in FA are not a long-term answer. They are an attempt to bring competition and respectability into the Denver running game. For this reason, I am quite certain that Hall at least and probably Young as well will be casualties of the 53-man roster. Buckhalter is a good talent, but has injury questions. Arrington is best on ST, and has a very similar skill set to Hillis but completely lacking the ability to drag defenders 10 yards with him. Jordan-- well, I never was happy with signing him. I suspect he's there mostly for insurance and to teach the other guys the ropes. I would be very happy if he gets axed as well. Torain I am personally high on, but he needs to seriously improve his conditioning before he can be counted on. Hillis is a mega-stud but would be grossly misused if he gets more than 10 carries a game (and maybe 5-8 passes). He is best used in a motion set, or on a gadget/trick play, or on 3rd down, or at the goal line. Think of him as the Brandon Stokley of our running back corps.

It should be clear now that I believe that simply having a bunch of running backs by no means indicates there is no need at the position. In fact, I think that the time is nearly ideal for taking such a top-flight talent like Moreno now. Here's what I see: The Broncos transform, at least for 2009, into a run-first team. This gets the most value out of our QBs, who are simply not designed to carry the team on their shoulders. We run about 30 times a game. With a plethora of talent at the RB position, and a wide variety of skill sets, it allows us to use whichever guy is best in the situation presented to us. Also, it allows us to bring on Knowshon slowly, allow him to learn the ropes of the NFL and adjust to its speed. Last year was a statistical fluke that will not be repeated for at least 10 years: rookie RBs rarely make a huge impact, and doing so significantly decreases their overall lifespan. This way, we get a year to assess our status and enter 2010 with a loaded hand of cards.

Right about now, you're probably saying, "But what about guy X over here? Wouldn't we need him more and wouldn't he make a more immediate impact?" Well, let's look at those guys.

Rey Malauluga:

I just can't pull the trigger for him at #12. To me, that's reaching for him. He's a monster, yes. But his best quality, what sets him apart from the others at his position, is his explosiveness: his ability to deliver big hits. But the downside to that is that he leaves himself exposed to getting beat, and sometimes has trouble wrapping a guy up. To me, that is the most overrated quality in a DB, a lot like arm strength for a QB (just facts, no sour grapes). It makes for good highlight reels, but how much the team as a whole is better once you factor in the back-breaking runs given up or the drive-killing interceptions thrown... well, I can't justify #12 with that.

Brian Cushing:

Not at #12, and absolutely not with the depth of talent behind him. Also, we can't overlook the allegations of steroid use, not to mention his injury history and subsequent lack of playing time. I would rather spend #12 on a best-available guy and get Conner Barwin, Larry English, or Clay Matthews later.

James Laurinitis

Not at #12. That's the only reason. The guy is the second coming of Brian Urlacher-- I'm really high on him. But, chances are high he will be available at #18 (whereas it is likley Moreno will be gone by then) and you can bet your sweet fanny I'm targeting him there.

Malcolm Jenkins

Well, if he falls here, I may have to rethink my position. However, I think that scenario highly unlikely-- most drafts have this guy going just outside the top 5.

Vontae Davis

I see red flags all over this guy, and I would only consider taking him late in the first round.

Everette Brown/Tyson Jackson

I'm including both of these guys together because they are both at the DE positions. Honestly, I don't know enough to pass final judgment on these guys and this draft slot, but what I do know tells me a few things. First of all, there are strong indications that between moving DTs to the DE or using rush OLBs, we may have what we need at least for this year at DE in a 3-4 alignment. Second of all, it seems a bit early to bite on a highly-touted DE again, after the bust-in-the-making that was Moss/Crowder. I'll need a lot of convincing before I take these guys over Moreno.

Patrick Chung

He is the only one of the safeties worth considering at #12, but it's just not a good idea. Don't get me wrong, if he and Laurinitis are both available at #18, I would be pulling my hair out if I were McXanders. Still, not a better prospect for the position than Moreno.

I'm sure you have your guys who you think would be better deals, as well as your disagreements with me over Moreno's value. But hey-- that's the fun of football, right? I've exhausted myself now; let me know what you think.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

I appreciate your post

I think this is well-thought and presented in a fantastic way. Kudos to you.

I have to say that I have not even considered taking Moreno, until last night. I think taking the pressure off of our starting QB will be monumental to that person’s success.

This situation kind of reminds me of the year the Colts drafted Anthony Gonzalez (I use this example because I was living in Indianapolis during this time and a lot of my in-laws are Colts junkies). None of my family could believe that they would draft a wide receiver in the first round when they had so many glaring needs on the defensive side of the ball. Now, I am not saying Gonzalez is the best WR on their team, but he is definitely worth the 1st round pick they used to acquire him.

Basically, I don’t see a problem with drafting Moreno. Once again, great argument and way to present your opinion. There are a lot of people that could learn from the way you presented your perspective.

Go Broncos!

by adamriggs on Apr 3, 2009 4:16 PM MDT reply actions

Yeah, I don't see a problem with Moreno either. We'll probably need a good running back since we don't have a good quarterback.

I can definitely see Denver becoming a run-attack team. With Moreno back there, why not? I could really see Denver taking him because McD said that we would draft the best talent in the early rounds, and would draft anyone who could make the team better. The only problem, is that we need D-E-F-E-N-S-E! But, I guess there really isn’t anyone on defense worth taking. I don’t know…I think I am gonna jump on the Moreno bandwagon…plus San Diego wouldn’t have a chance to get him!!

What I want the Broncos to do before the start of next season:
1) Improve the defense drastically.
2) Improve terms with Jay Cutler.
3) Talk Jay into firing Bus Cook as his agent.
4) Sign Torry Holt to a 1 year deal.

Let's go BRONCOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by broncoholic on Apr 3, 2009 4:33 PM MDT reply actions

That's just the problem

We can’t afford to wait on a guy like him. Especially if he could land up opposite us in our division.

I see things the same way. Just because our defense was horrible last year means nothing about how it will be next year. We have an entirely new scheme, numerous fairly high-profile free agent acquisitions, and a new head coach. Yes, we have several holes to fill around here. Still, I can’t say that this means automatically that all our picks should be defensive in the top rounds. That assumes there is little to no value to be had in the later rounds, and in this year’s draft that is simply not true. With our new scheme and free agents, DL is perhaps the only absolutely glaring area of need on the defense.

"3rd and 6, Elway shotgun... Elway, scrambling, looking, running-- DIVING!!!-- inside the 5 yard line for a first down! Is he only 37?! How important is this football game? How bad does John Elway want to win this football game? Where you see the quarterbacks go down: Not Elway!"

by Sharpe as a Tack on Apr 4, 2009 12:57 PM MDT up reply actions

A lot of the defenses problem from last year..

..could be fixed by better coaching/coaches. Poor discipline all around (arm tackles, over pursuit) and very, very poorly designed coverage schemes.

Not to mention the asinine move of lining speed rushers like Jarvis Moss lined up in 4- or 5-technique instead of the 7-technique that his speed and lack of strength would seem to dictate. You can’t take a speed rusher and make him an anchor.

But Slowik sure as hell tried.

"You can make mistakes, but you are not a failure until you blame others for those mistakes." -John Wooden

by Randall15 on Apr 24, 2009 11:28 AM MDT up reply actions

Oh, I meant to say 7-tech and further out, i.e. 8-, 9-tech also

"You can make mistakes, but you are not a failure until you blame others for those mistakes." -John Wooden

by Randall15 on Apr 24, 2009 11:30 AM MDT up reply actions

Nice post although

I just can’t agree on taking Moreno anywhere in the first round. Not with our nonexistent defense. We just have too many holes to fill. I think there are 3 positions on defense that don’t need improvement: Williams (LB), Champ (CB), and Dawkins (SS) (and we even need to find a successor to B.Dawk ASAP!). Everywhere else could (and hopefully will) be upgraded in the draft.

To take a RB with such a high pick, I honestly believe he would have to be on par with AP and I just don’t see it with Moreno. Don’t get me wrong, he looks like a player in his game tape, but EVERY running back being considered in the first round looks like a stud and a lot of them end up failing. I’ve posted the link to this article on where Moreor stacks up size/speed-wise on a differ post so sorry for the repeat, but I think it bears some thought:

http://espn.go.com/melkiper/s/2001/0227/1113401.html

Bottom line: WE CANNOT AFFORD FAILURE IN THE FIRST ROUND ANYMORE.

by Elway's Ghost on Apr 3, 2009 4:50 PM MDT reply actions

I totally agree

that we can’t mess up in the first round. Like I said in my initial post, I haven’t even thought about taking Moreno and now I am having mixed feelings. I think I would rather have him over Tyson Jackson. I just don’t know anymore!

by adamriggs on Apr 3, 2009 5:07 PM MDT up reply actions

I agree, but...

There are many problems with running backs taken in the first round who fail, and the two most glaring ones are 1) over-inflated stats due to a system and/or playing in a non-NFL-style division; and 2) rushing them into a superstar role too early. Moreno comes out of the SEC, which is arguably the most NFL-ready division in college football. Also, in my scenario, he wouldn’t really be the feature 20-carry-a-game back until next year, and even then he would be splitting carries to maximize his potential and minimize his injury risk.

I understand the gun-shy character of a 1st round RB, but Moreno is one of the safest guys I’ve seen in a very long time.

by Sharpe as a Tack on Apr 4, 2009 12:24 PM MDT up reply actions

Here's the problem

I think Moreno will be there at 18, Rey will be gone well before then, I would say the same for Cushing, but his recent bust for roids may drop him out of the 1st round entirely. Larenitus to me looks like a more classic MLB in a 4-3 versus an ILB in a 3-4, so I would take him off the board at this time, Brown likely won’t be around at 12 (especially if Matthews and Cushing fall), I am not sold on Jackson, although others are, I think he is more of a late 1st/early 2nd pick, Chung is not likely to be a 1st rounder. So I agree that many of the players you listed will be at 18, but I think Moreno’s stock is also dropping, so he will likely also be there at 18.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the one with the gun, A-hole" - Ash from Army of Darkness

by Broncoman on Apr 3, 2009 5:08 PM MDT reply actions

that is the trick right there

who falls who stays. For both players everything I see indicates it is 50/50 for either one to be the slider…

Which means they both go in the top 10 and this is moot… :)

Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.

There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.

by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 3, 2009 7:36 PM MDT up reply actions

Huge risk

Maybe he will be and maybe he won’t. A lot of that will depend on who gets taken before him. Many mock drafts have either the Saints, the Texans, or the Chargers looking for a RB in the first round (and these are all post-LT-contract). The Saints are definitely in need of a good guy, although Wells might fit them better. The Texans, while needing to update their secondary desperately, have got to know that Slaton can’t carry the entire load on his own. The Chargers are a longshot to take an RB, but Hester just hasn’t panned out for them yet and everyone knows LT is on his last legs.

To me, Moreno has the panache and in-your-face style of Clinton Portis combined with the elusiveness of LT and some healthy doses of the athleticism of Adrian Peterson. This guy is a once-every-five-years talent, and while we’ve got some serviceable role players in our RB stable now, we don’t have anyone to really carry the load over the long haul. Especially with our QB situation in flux, we need this to be rock-solid, and we can’t risk waiting another 5-10 years on that.

by Sharpe as a Tack on Apr 4, 2009 12:38 PM MDT up reply actions