Evaluations: Cutler, Orton, McDaniels
by spock on Apr 4, 2009 1:17 PM MDT
Email
PrintHow did it get so far? Saying that McDaniels blundered, or that Cutler took McDaniels' willingness to entertain offers too personally, or that Cook had a game plan for which the Cassel incident supplied a handy pretext are not totally satisfying, although I've subscribed to each. I can even add another, call it the evil genius theory, in which McDaniels doesn't think Cutler is a winner but realizes that if he just puts him on the block teams will be wary. What does McDaniels know that we don't? Even if they bid they'll do so more cautiously and ultimately less generously. If, however, he subtly pushes Jay's buttons until Jay "forces" his way out of Denver, others will see not questions about his abilities but immaturity, which they think they can deal with. Hence his trade value will be maximized.
The first and fourth scenarios raise, one tacitly and the other overtly, the issue of evaluation. Why was McDaniels willing to consider deals involving Cutler? That it's a coach's duty to listen to all offers is true but ultimately not convincing. If that's the case, why was McDaniels unable to sufficiently reassure Jay when so much seemingly depended on it? Yes, Jay was petulant, yes he should have realized it's a business. But if McDaniels really, really wanted Jay to stay he could have made it clear that even though you can never say never, still, there's no quarterback he would rather have than Jay and he can't imagine him not being his quarterback in the future. Somehow he was never quite able to express, even in accounts sympathetic to his point of view, that kind of whole-hearted commitment to "the player".
In a recent article in the Denver Post the authors write:
Josh McDaniels didn't say it, but by making a deal with Chicago, and not Washington, it was apparent the Broncos coach preferred Kyle Orton to the Redskins' Jason Campbell. Bears general manager Jerry Angelo said at his news conference Thursday that the Broncos "did a lot of work on Kyle, spent a lot of time breaking down the tape. I think that was a key component to making this happen."
If McDaniels put that much effort into evaluating Orton and Campbell, think how much more time he must have spent on Jay Cutler, the quarterback of the team he was auditioning for. Apparently he wasn't totally satisfied. That doesn't necessarily mean he didn't think he could win with Cutler, only that he was willing to consider other possibilities. In Why Jay Faded I suggested that:
Many people have commented that Jay still doesn't go through his progressions very well, that he locks in on one receiver. They also say he makes too many bad decisions. There are at least two senses in which this can be said, and the term "bad decision" doesn't have quite the same meaning in both instances. It's often used when a quarterback attempts a pass because he either doesn't see a defensive player or doesn't realize his potential for making a play. The term "bad decision" implies bad judgment, but in those instances the quarterback simply doesn't have time to recognize the danger before he releases the ball. The culprit isn't his judgment but the speed of the pass rush, his inexperience, an inherent limitation in how fast he can process information, or some combination of the three. With Cutler the first rarely applied due to excellent protection, and the third hopefully didn't, but the second most likely did.
But it didn't do so obviously, because Cutler has abilities that have tended to mask that deficit. His throws have tremendous velocity and accuracy, particularly when he's throwing on a straight line. That means he can often get the ball in even when the receiver's covered, because the ball's so perfectly thrown and gets there so fast the defender doesn't have time to react. But the other side of the coin is that Jay has to be perfect in order to avoid picks. And having to be perfect play after play, game after game, takes its toll over the course of a season. I suggest that's why Jay faded.
But Jay also made bad decisions in a second and more literal sense. Trusting his velocity and his accuracy, and preferring to risk a bad play in order to make a good one, Jay often tried to fit the ball in even when he knew the receiver was tightly covered, not simply because he didn't see the defender in time. That's a mindset McDaniels will surely want to change, if he can, and is most likely the factor that made him willing to consider Cassel as an alternative.
In an insightful response styg50 added:
What you are saying seems to be that Jay's decision making took a hit precisely because he stopped making decisions. The more the pressure mounted, the less he relied on thinking and the more he relied on his natural abilities. He wasn't choosing to thread a needle with arm strength and velocity over throwing it away or checking down to a RB, he wasn't choosing at all. By the end of the year our offense was inefficient sandlot football, and the exact opposite of week one against the raiders, where we were a relentless machine.
In a similar vein SlowWhiteGuy writes:
I think fans who don't know how to evaluate QBs don't realize how far Cutler's game needs to improve before he will actually be an elite QB. He has great tools but he is barely playing about [above?] a college QB level [in] his situational awareness, his reads (especially against zones) and his patience to work through his progressions. Based on what we've seen over the past 6 weeks I have doubts that he is humble enough to progress much farther as a QB.
Clearly there are legitimate doubts regarding Cutler's abilities as a pro quarterback. Not only does his raw talent mask deficiencies that are more central to success, having such talent also makes it less likely that he'll be motivated to develop those capabilities. But that's not the only kind of doubt that's relevant. In baseball I've often noticed that a given pitcher will have a better won-loss record than another on the same team with a better ERA. In such cases close inspection often reveals that the pitcher with the better record consistently gets better run support from his hitters. Indeed, there are "hard-luck" pitchers who seem to frequently lose games 1-0 or 2-1. Why do such pitchers get less help from their teammates? Are they really unlucky? Consistently? Less likeable? Less inspirational? Is there something about their body language? Do we really want to say they're better than the "lucky" teammate who consistently wins more games?
In today's New York Times Stefan Fatsis, who spent the summer of 2006 with the Broncos as an ersatz placekicker while researching a book, has one of the most insightful articles I've yet seen on this whole affair. After making some shrewd observations about Bowlen and Shanahan he asks, "Why would McDaniels have considered trading Cutler in the first place?" He considers various possibilities, some of which have been relentlessly rehashed in the press, then comes down to this:
I met Cutler when he was the first-round draft choice in 2006 who was expected to ride the bench for a couple of years behind Jake Plummer and then lead Denver for a decade or more. The new Elway! Finally! But Cutler is virtually absent from my book. That's because he was uncompelling journalistically and off-putting personally. I sought out players who thought deeply and were interested in explaining the physical and emotional realities of playing in the NFL. That wasn't Cutler. His demeanor often was that of a bored, eye-rolling teenage girl, with a dash of smugness for good measure. Since then, I've received unflattering reports about his behavior and indifferent-to-negative ones about his relationship with his teammates.
Should those sorts of perceptions outweigh a laser arm on a 25-year-old body and 4,500 passing yards and 13-1 record in games in which his team gave up no more than 21 points and any of the other stats rolled out by his supporters? Certainly not. But football teams, like other businesses, consist of human beings whose ability to interact is integral to their success. And no human being is more important to the success of a football team than the quarterback. Josh McDaniels may be young and inexperienced, but he's not dumb. He didn't want to sabotage his new team, or his own future. So something else must have been going on.
Here's a radical thought: Maybe McJayGate, as the Denver press dubbed it, wasn't about who dissed whom or who ignored whose text messages or whether a new coach has to earn the respect of his players. Maybe it was about something more prosaic but also more substantial: the future of the team. Maybe Pat Bowlen, Josh McDaniels and other team officials examined Cutler's statistics, his physical traits, his emotional temperament, his suitability to the coach's offensive system, his leadership ability, his off-field behavior and his overall attitude — including the evolution of his relationship with his new boss. And then they decided that the Denver Broncos had a greater chance of winning with someone else in the huddle. Even someone named Kyle Orton.
Fatsis' observations are eerily reminiscent of the impression I got from my co-worker, who was Cutler's high school teammate, which I mentioned in this comment:
As rabid a Broncos fan as he is, and as proud of Jay as he's been, it always struck me odd that when I'd say wow, it must have been great playing with him, he was always reticent about it and sort of implied, without really coming out and saying so, that he wasn't that great a guy to play for. I thought maybe he was kind of jealous. Maybe now we're seeing what he already knew.
Maybe those fans who've harped on Cutler's 17-20 won-loss record are on to something. Yes, the defense has been awful, but would it have been as awful, or as bad in critical situations, for another quarterback? In 2006 the Broncos were 7-4 despite averaging only 17.8 points per game when Cutler replaced Plummer, and went 2-3 the rest of the way, and lost the last game to miss the playoffs, despite averaging 24.8. Yes, the defense suddenly became much less effective, as it has been ever since Jay became quarterback. The coincidences keep piling up. Is Jay like those "unlucky" baseball pitchers who don't get much help? Conversely, Plummer, who had a very good won-loss record with the Broncos, was known to be extremely popular with his teammates. I don't mean to minimize his deficiencies, which in Shanahan's opinion, which I agree with, limited how far the Broncos could go. But Plummer's teammates supported him, in the most meaningful way possible, by playing their hearts out on the football field even when Jake was playing badly. It has been during Jay Cutler's tenure, and only during his tenure, that the Broncos have regularly and embarrassingly underperformed. Is leadership what we've been missing?
Denver fans have been so mesmerized by John Elway's howitzer arm that this factor has defined the quest for his successor. But John's relatively low completion percentage and early tendency to throw into coverage weren't temporary deficiencies due to inexperience. He won not because of his cannon arm, not because he could quickly find the open receiver a la Joe Montana, but because of his mobility — keep running around until you find someone — and his leadership and iron will. He's the greatest Bronco ever and a Hall of Famer because time and time again he somehow found a way to win. His biggest play in the biggest game of his life was not a pretty pass but the helicopter first down. The unalloyed joy he felt when he lifted that trophy high was made possible by teammates who gave everything they had in response to his leadership.
About Orton we know very little, except that he's 21-12 overall and 15-2 at home. McDaniels, who like all members of the Parcells-Belichick coaching tree is acutely aware of the bottom line, has to have been affected by this one. For better or worse it's McDaniels' judgments that will determine the Broncos' fate during his tenure, and Bowlen, as is his want, has chosen who he thinks is the best man and left him to succeed or fail on the strength not only of his coaching but also his evaluations of men and situations. As fans we can do no less.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
112 comments
|
25 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Orton's also 96.0 in the red zone.
Cutler is 74.1.
"I’m gonna take the lead of the guys who have the rings...It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you don’t win." -- Brandon Marshall
KO: LWLLWWWWWWWWLWWLLLWWWLLWWLWWLLWLWWWL
JC: LLWWLWWLLLWLLWWLLWLLWWWWLWLLLWWLWWLLL
Wow. That's good to know.
A lot of people are assuming we got the lesser QB in the deal. We just got the less physically talented one. The one with a (much) better record. The one who’s better in the red zone. Plus two 1st round picks and their 3rd for our 5th. Bwahahahahahaha.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
Something I've noticed is that Jay never really improved.
People love to throw the word “potential” at him, but I wonder if he hasn’t already hit his ceiling. As for Orton, I think he can thrive in our system, and I absolutely think he will have a better statistical year than Jayby. I look forward to drafting him in my non-Bronco fans fantasy drafts. I think he will be excellent value in the mid-rounds.
I seem to have lost my future self.
The more that I hear how good Orton's numbers are-record, red zone numbers, etc.-the more I like the trade
and think we are closer to a division title. Although we have Orton…we still have a LONG way to go.
"When you put on that jersey, the name on the front is more important than the name on the back." - "Miracle".
"Winning means you're willing to go longer, work harder, and give more than anyone else." - Vince Lombardi.
The thing about Orton or Simms we will see much more of
Is accuracy and read-progressions.
Both these guys seem willing to learn and both look like they can make reads and solid decisions. So who cares that they can’t throw the ball 50 yards down the field….just get it to Marshall and let him plow over a couple people to pick up that 50.
We’ll be fine whoever is our QB.
I don’t want breakaway speed. I want break-some-poor-fool-as-I-bowl-you-over power getting 6 yards off a play that should have been stopped for 2 at most.
Passer rating
is almost certainly what he’s referring to. I can’t think of anything else it could be.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
percentage.
kyle orton is past perfect! haha
"It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you dont win" -Brandon Marshall
Yes, passer rating
sorry for the confusion. the stat was posted in response to broncosmontana’s mention of KO’s 96.0 red zone passer rating.
Very very nice!
"I’m gonna take the lead of the guys who have the rings...It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you don’t win." -- Brandon Marshall
KO: LWLLWWWWWWWWLWWLLLWWWLLWWLWWLLWLWWWL
JC: LLWWLWWLLLWLLWWLLWLLWWWWLWLLLWWLWWLLL
by broncosmontana on Apr 5, 2009 8:00 PM MDT up reply actions
Great stat Montana.....thanks mate...thats an eye opener!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
Indeed!
"I’m gonna take the lead of the guys who have the rings...It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you don’t win." -- Brandon Marshall
KO: LWLLWWWWWWWWLWWLLLWWWLLWWLWWLLWLWWWL
JC: LLWWLWWLLLWLLWWLLWLLWWWWLWLLLWWLWWLLL
by broncosmontana on Apr 4, 2009 7:59 PM MDT up reply actions
That's cause he gets there so few times
Also helps when nobody expects you to pass since you suck ass and your main threat is the RB.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the one with the gun, A-hole" - Ash from Army of Darkness
How many #1-caliber receivers do they have again?
For that matter, how many average receivers do they have??
"I’m gonna take the lead of the guys who have the rings...It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you don’t win." -- Brandon Marshall
KO: LWLLWWWWWWWWLWWLLLWWWLLWWLWWLLWLWWWL
JC: LLWWLWWLLLWLLWWLLWLLWWWWLWLLLWWLWWLLL
by broncosmontana on Apr 6, 2009 4:03 PM MDT up reply actions
Excellent article Spock, rec'd.
Can we describe a function of leadership as putting those around you in the best position to succeed? I get the bad defense arguments, and I don’t dismiss them, because our defense hurt me as a fan. But, as a leader, shouldn’t the QB by charged with putting his defense in the best position possible? Factor in that that also coincides with what would suit him best as a non-leader QB (points), and you have one of the greatest indicators pointing towards your “unlucky pitcher” analogy.
Very well laid out.
Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
+1
My image is the Circa 1960-’61 Broncos home uniform sock. Some what folk lore to me ... but referred to as the clown sock by my Dad.
by YellowStoneBronco on Apr 4, 2009 3:10 PM MDT up reply actions
You're right
A true “field general” is always going to be thinking about how his actions affect the whole team and its chances of winning. If his defense is suspect he’ll avoid leaving it in difficult situations. I suspect he’ll also do everything he can to help the defense’s morale, and perhaps in the process help it play better. I suspect Cutler, seeing how he treated even talented receivers, did exactly the opposite. It’s been painful these last two and a half seasons watching this team quit when the going got tough. How are they going to persevere when the “leader” doesn’t? Winners have wins and losers have great excuses. Including being unlucky.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
Subtle Observation
Very insightful Spock. Did anyone else notice that when McDaniels held up the Cutler # 6 Jersey at the recent Owner’s meeting that it was an “away” jersey rather than a ‘home" jersey? Why would such a detail oriented individual do that? Coupled with his expression, It struck me at the time that Josh was demonstrating his control rather than truly extending an olive branch. After thinking about it I dismissed my gut reaction and decided was reading too much into it – but now I’m not so sure.
LOL
Sweet! No, I didn’t notice. Nice catch. Demonstrating control or Freudian slip? There are subtleties and there are subtleties.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
He was also blinking "torture" in morse code.
Clever guy, that McDaniels.
: )
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Apr 4, 2009 8:11 PM MDT up reply actions
wow...interesting take from Fatsis.
Of course as a rookie Cutler probably didn’t have a whole lot of insight into NFL life to give.
Good post. rec’d.
"C" is for Championship...that's good enough for meeeee!!!
Thanks
He could have talked about what it’s like being a rookie, or a highly touted rookie, in the NFL. Fatsis makes it pretty clear that his absence from the book has a lot more to do with personality than having little insight due to being a rookie. But yes, Fatsis’ overall level of information and insight, including where Bowlen wants to be in the next few years, makes it the best piece on McJayGate that I’ve seen.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
Great analysis Spock...
but I think there’s even more here. While the media and many fans harp on this “#2” offense they don’t realize that it actually wasn’t as good as they imagine. Yes Jay compile a lot of yards (mostly between the 20s) but that’s mostly because he threw more than anyone but Drew Brees. His completion rate (62.3) tied him for 14th with Jason Campbell and his yards per attempt (7.3yds) ranked 12th.
McDaniels seems to be very aware of statistics and was probably quite aware that Cutler, while very talented, was not as good as the hype indicated.
BTW: passing Y/A is the statistic most strongly correlated to wins.
Well, that "even more" has been well-covered
by you, me, and others, even as the less enlightened have continued to bray about our “#2 offense”. I’ve pointed it out several times on Denver Post forums. You’ve mentioned the Y/A correlation before. Is there no correlation between the TD/INT ratio and wins, or is the Y/A simply stronger?
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
The correlation...
seems to be between int/att and it is also very strongly (though negatively) correlated. But that would be piling on.
Ahhhhhhh!
So TD passes aren’t as relevant, maybe because it doesn’t matter how you score so long as you do. But interceptions are killers. It’s mistakes, more than anything else, that lose games. I remember an article, I think on Football Outsiders, that quantified quarterback mistakes, with a much higher negative value being assigned to an interception that goes for a TD than one that stops a drive at midfield. I don’t remember if a red-zone interception also has a relatively high negative score. The results showed that Tom Brady makes fewer critical mistakes than any other quarterback, and by a fairly wide margin over the second-best, Peyton Manning. I wonder what the correlation would be if we used the ratio of total TDs to interceptions?
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
I would say offensive penalty yards
I actually built a decision tree on data got from NFL.com from 98 -2004, and the single statistic that split wins/losses the most, around 60%, was offensive penalty yards. Obviously, the lower the opy, the better.
another thing i heard
didn’t Jedi say something about it was the FIRST time in history a team with almost the most yards was in the lower half in scoring…or something like that?
And i am totally upset with HIM...omg...i could just slap His face off...i shouldnt feel this way but...wow...like i just feel like i should go get my hair done and put on that special dress and stilleto heels and show Him what Hes gonna miss...cuz Hes never touching this again!!!!!!!!!!
Yes Our girl...
We finished 17th in scoring!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
Nickname...
..for Coach McDaniels.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Apr 5, 2009 5:13 PM MDT up reply actions
yds/att differential and pts/att differential
2008 regular season (yds/att differential):
Team Value
ATL 1.9
CAR 1.8
PIT 1.7
S D 1.4
DAL 1.3
PHI 1.2
N O 1.2
IND 1.1
MIA 1.0
TEN 1.0
BAL 0.9
ARI 0.7
G B 0.6
HOU 0.4
NYG 0.3
T B 0.1
MIN 0.1
S F 0.0
NYJ -0.1
WAS -0.2
DEN -0.2
N E -0.3
BUF -0.5
CHI -0.6
OAK -1.1
JAX -1.5
K C -1.6
SEA -1.7
CIN -1.9
STL -2.1
CLE -2.3
DET -2.6
2008 regular season (pts/att differential)
Rank Team Value
1 BAL 0.43
2 TEN 0.42
3 CAR 0.41
4 S D 0.34
5 ATL 0.31
6 NYG 0.29
7 PIT 0.27
8 MIN 0.21
9 CHI 0.15
10 NYJ 0.14
11 PHI 0.14
12 MIA 0.13
13 N E 0.12
14 G B 0.04
15 IND 0.02
16 BUF 0.01
17 N O -0.02
18 S F -0.03
19 T B -0.04
20 DAL -0.06
21 WAS -0.06
22 SEA -0.07
23 ARI -0.15
24 HOU -0.18
25 OAK -0.20
26 JAX -0.23
27 K C -0.31
28 DEN -0.31
29 CLE -0.31
30 CIN -0.32
31 STL -0.60
32 DET -0.64
Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 4, 2009 4:17 PM MDT up reply actions
Yes Great analysis Spock...
How do 3&OUT’s correlate to wins? That’s something The playbooks don’t seem to have a catagory for, you have to go in and manually count them. I think they are more important than most think, how do you feel?
Tactics without Strategy is the noise you hear before Defeat!
Haven't actually counted them
but you’d think there’d be a correlation. Hard to score when you continually give the ball back right after you get it, and doesn’t help your defense much, either.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
I think they averaged 3 a game ( thats my count)
Tactics without Strategy is the noise you hear before Defeat!
I don't think 3 and out
actually correlates to losing, but time-of-possession (which they certainly affect) does affect scoring. If you think about it, a 3 and out, followed by a 45 yd punt and 10 yard return, is no different than 42 yard drive followed by a missed field goal. But the lack of ToP leads to more opportunities by the opposing team to score points.
However, Football Outsiders does track a statistic they call Drive Success Rate which indicates on the average how successful a team was at converting a set of downs into a 1st down or score. Denver was 4th best at 74.1%
Loooooong drives
that ended with mistakes, followed by short drives that never really started. I really don’t want to go back and think about that anymore!!! I wanna thinka bout the draaaaft!!!
Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 4, 2009 6:06 PM MDT up reply actions
Don't get me started on T.O.P!
They only commanded the TIME OF POSSESSION 3 out of 16 games last year.
Tactics without Strategy is the noise you hear before Defeat!
Very true, SWG
That statistic of #2 leaves out much more than it tells. Red zone efficiency is one facet (Orton’s is much better). Completion rate is another (Cutler’s is better than Orton’s). But look at the #2 offense in the light of the full year.
We were strong in that 1st quarter. We fell off like a lead snowflake after that. We didn’t score points. As McDaniels pointed out on 104 The Fan:
In 17 two minute drives last year, we scored all of 1 FG. That’s not a powerhouse.
We had 30 turnovers, 2nd most in the NFL.
We can thank Jay for most of them, between his fumbles and his interceptions.
Jay fumbled two of them without even being hit.
We were one of the first teams in history to be in the top 5 in yards and not make the top ½ in points.
That #2 offense number is only the number of total yards. It’s nice, but not it’s not a telling or even important stat by itself.
It’s a testament to Cutler’s arm, certainly. Orton’s ball isn’t as pretty nor as fast, but he’s a lot more powerful than the current MSM wisdom is pretending and very accurate over most of the field.
It’s a testament to our offensive line, which Orton will love and Jay will miss, especially after Orton’s past few years. He will prefer being sacked 11 times to 29, believe me.
It’s a testament to our receiving corp, which Orton will inherit. Cutler will get Devin Hester, who isn’t Eddie Royal on his routes, Bennett, who is a middle of the pack talent, certainly isn’t Marshall and whoever they draft, which is a toss-up, won’t be Brandon Stokley or Tony Scheffler.
The more I’ve looked at this, the more I believe that Orton can score more points than Cutler did with this offense. That may surprise people, but I’m becoming convinced that it’s true. Orton is exceptional in the no huddle offense. You can go back to his college days and see that he finished his senior year at Purdue with 31 TDs and 5 INTs, a 60.7% completion rate and 3090 yards. Note this from his pre-draft analysis:
As was the case with former Purdue star Drew Brees (Chargers), it may take Orton longer to make the transition to the NFL than other quarterbacks that had better experience in a more traditional offense
If you want to like the guy, recall that Orton wears No. 18 in honor of quarterback Brook Berringer, who led the Cornhuskers to the 1994 national championship and who was killed in a plane crash on April 18, 1996. Arm strength? Not Cutler’s, but in Orton’s final regular-season college game, he threw for 522 yards (33-of-54 passing) and six touchdowns against Indiana on Nov. 20, 2004. He had 401 yards in the first half. The 522 yards tied a school record (held by Drew Brees).
Ok, so how about as a pro? Well, the most important stat is still 21-12.
By the way – ths is a great effort, spock.
Hillis in '09
I don't want to go too far with this....
Neither Orton or Simms (who was statistically better) are anything more than caretaker QBs. But, for now, that’s all we need. Until our defense improves to at least average and we cut down on turnovers, the rest won’t matter.
As I said before, Cutler is supremely talented, but he has some really bad habits that he hasn’t made progress on. They are similar to Grossman’s bad habits so I have to wonder if the Bears coaches are really up to the task of grooming the diamond in the rough that they have just acquired.
One of them might turn out to be more than that
but I agree, caretaker would work. So long as we can keep from shooting ourselves in the foot we can, uh, take the next step.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
McDaniels has already shown
what he can do with a caretaker qb
One thing I know for sure - I'm usually wrong.
SWG
I think Cutler had another bad habit that got over looked way to often was His poor play fake. He just seemed to be burened by having to doing it, so He was very lazy with it half assed and wouldn’t sell it.
Tactics without Strategy is the noise you hear before Defeat!
I know where you are coming from SWG...
But I think both are a bit untapped. Orton is only 26 and was drafted by a team that did not suit his style, yet he was successful. I think I am going to do a post on Kyle Orton tonight…and a theory I have…just researching now.
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
Looking forward to it!
I would tell you that you’re one of my favorite posters, but at this point I have so many favorites…but i always enjoy your posts.
by SlowWhiteGuy on Apr 4, 2009 7:32 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
thanks for the plug...
Spock is also one of my favs too. There is an amazing synergy here that puts the MSM to shame.
by SlowWhiteGuy on Apr 5, 2009 1:48 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
As you point out, Doc
our ordinary (in terms of points scored) offense was far less than that for most of the year. And that’s not counting the turnover that wasn’t against the Chargers. If it had counted it would have been about as unforced an error as you can have. I just checked Orton on Wikipedia — did you know he’s already listed as a Bronco? — and he had a 10-5 record in his rookie year with a QB rating under 60. Just as the Patriots regularly outperform their offensive and defensive yardage totals on the scoreboard, perhaps Orton outperforms his QB rating in the won-lost column. Which shows that the official QB rating, like yardage totals, can be highly misleading.
I agree that Orton (or Simms, whoever plays) is going to be in heaven with our line and receivers. I’ve been thinking the same thing. I read where someone said Cutler will make the Bears’ receivers better, and I thought, How’s he going to do that? Is he going to run their routes for them? But a great line and receivers who can get open will sure help a quarterback. And I think Orton will do a better job of taking advantage. When Royal, as the second or third receiver on a play, gets wide open I think Orton will do a better job of finding him.
I don’t doubt that Orton will be able to score more than Cutler. The stats you cite — the 17 two-minute drives for one field goal, the second most turnovers in the league, the relative unprecedentness of the gap between yards and points — are eye-opening. I suspect the NFL cognoscenti are going to have their eyes opened when they see how well Orton, in his fourth full year as a player (not counting the year he was injured), does in this offense. By the way, has anyone else noticed that we in effect traded quarterbacks with the Titans, Ramsey for Simms, and came out way ahead?
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
Great post as always Spock.
I knew Spock was god when I watched all the historical documents as a kid!
That said, I do feel like my intense desire to buy into any analysis that shows Orton’s superiority to Cutler is influenced by my anxiety around whether we’ve done the right thing. This sort of analysis is fun and thinking about football and trying to predict outcomes is part of what makes being a fan fun, but in the end all we can really do is let the movie play out and see what happens. The analysis are kind of screaming in the dark.
That said, keep’em coming! I like the taste of that Kool-Aid!
I like mixing it :)
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
Superb post Spock
Rec’d and very very well presented. It should help quite a few Bronco fans put things in perspective and come down off the ledge. : )
I don’t want breakaway speed. I want break-some-poor-fool-as-I-bowl-you-over power getting 6 yards off a play that should have been stopped for 2 at most.
Back away from the skunky beer!
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
Beautifully-written and thoughtful post (as always), Spock
It does all come down to winning, and some guys just have “it”. However, I don’t agree with your baseball analogy. Luck plays a very large and quite real factor in baseball. The pitching mound is always in the same spot, the plate is always 60’6" away. However, the parks are all different, the batters are different, and the fielders behind the pitcher affect each and every batted ball. It is established and known that pitchers have unlucky seasons. The best pitchers in baseball do have years where their W-L record in no way represents the quality of their performances. Pitchers such as Johan Santana, Brandon Webb and Roger Clemens are undoubtedly all-time greats; they are expected to win around 20 games each and every season. Nobody has ever questioned their labels as “winners” and all are considered great team players. However, each have suffered through seasons where their teams failed to support them – not because they pitched poorly, but because things just didn’t quite go their way. It happens in baseball.
Examine these seasons…
Johan Santana, 2005 & 2008
Roger Clemens, 2005 & 2006
Brandon Webb, 2005 & 2006
What you will see are perennial winners who failed to win their typical number of games, despite remarkably low ERA’s and WHIPs. So, they didn’t give up many runs, hits or walks, but they didn’t win very much. It’s not because they’re bad teammates – in their other great years, they win plenty.
I always leave something out...
In baseball, there are not pitchers who are unlucky over the length of their careers. It just doesn’t happen. Pitchers are either good or they’re bad, or somewhere in between. Good/great pitchers have unlucky seasons where they don’t win much, and not-so-good pitchers can have wildly lucky years where they win a bunch of games despite pitching like crap. Steve Trachsel in 2006 was a perfect example of the latter. But you don’t see consistently good pitchers (low ERAs and WHIPs) who fail to win over the course of their careers.
by Douglas A. Lee on Apr 4, 2009 5:45 PM MDT up reply actions
You raise some interesting points
but given the data you cite your argument is inconclusive. Undoubtedly there is variance from year to year, just as there is from game to game (the same would be true for quarterbacks), but that’s not inconsistent with some pitchers having on average better (or worse) “luck” at a given level of stinginess and a given level of proficiency by their team’s offense (i.e. for all games, not just games that player pitches in). The impression that I reported shouldn’t be treated as a fact either, of course.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
I understood your original point to be that there are baseball pitchers who typically appear “unlucky” because their teams don’t score many runs for them, and it seemed your implication was that their teammates don’t “play” for them. My point, is that no pitchers are “lucky” or “unlucky” throughout their careers. It just doesn’t happen. They have lucky and unlucky years, sometimes related to balls falling in for hits that didn’t the year before, the defense not playing well behind them, or the offense not scoring enough runs to support a quality performance. But over the course of entire careers (larger sample sizes), a pitcher’s won/loss record matches his performance.
I agree that perhaps Cutler hasn’t won since high school because he’s just not a leader. It’s a very strong possibility, despite all the excuses we’ve offered up (poor football school in a tough conference, poor defense in the NFL). I just don’t think his case relates to baseball pitchers. Cutler not winning hasn’t (so far) been confined to a single season.
by Douglas A. Lee on Apr 4, 2009 8:39 PM MDT up reply actions
If it seems like the point I'm making above is not quite the one I made originally
it’s because I softened my stance in response to your most excellent argument. :)
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
Nice work as usual, Spock....
One of the little things that used to bug me about our last quarterback (i.e. “the player”) was the way when he came off the field, you’d often see him sitting by himself on the bench. Anyone else notice this? He’s not like Roethlisberger yapping with his linemen, or Peyton scheming with his OC, or even Phyllis talking trash with his crony goons. It always seemed like Cutler was on an island. I know he had friends in the locker room, and the fellas liked to hang out at his party pad and all that, but I never thought he was the kind of guy that inspired his teammates. I don’t know how much this is worth, ultimately, but I think it’s connected to what you’re talking about….
"The way you motivate a football team is to eliminate the unmotivated ones."
~Lou Holtz~
I noticed that as well
Manning and Brady are furiously pouring over pictures of the defense and talking animatedly with teammates and coaches and “the player” looks like he is about half asleep. I never liked that.
It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09
Excellent post Spock. Highly rec'd.
This belongs on the front page.
It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09
Excellent post, and rec'd.
I always brag that we have lawyers, doctors, former coaches, engineers, etc amongst our membership. I’d mention science officer / first officer starfleet guys, but I just don’t think anyone would believe me.
Your post makes clear a point I have failed to put down in print. While I have said Cutler is the better QB (in my opinion), it is clearly raw, physical talent. Orton is (perhaps) smarter, more cautious, and a better game manager. While Cutler has more potential in my eyes, Orton is a steady hand. I see Denver improving each year for several years, but still don’t imagine our current QB roster taking us to the promised land. I don’t want a ’09 QB draft pick. Perhaps ’10.
Very, very well laid out and supported.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
Plus
Orton has a neck beard! ’nuff said!
http://www.davusx.net/assets/db/la_la_land.gif
"We should have kept Seattle and dumped San Diego from the Division"
Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!
I could easily see McDaniels
taking a QB in mid to late rounds every year until he strikes gold. I’m wondering if he had a hand in selecting Cassel. If he’s a good evaluator of QB talent we don’t need to spend a high draft choice now or ever. It’s so hard to project QBs at the next level the one we’re looking for could as easily show up in the 5th round as the 1st.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
Like.....
Graham Harrell? Please?
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
Better Quarterback
In my opinion the value of the quarterback must be defined within the type of offense he is asked to run. The steady hand of Orton may be a much better fit, and therefore a better quarterback, in McDaniels’ offense than Cutler’s strong arm.
It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09
This actually made me excited
hopefully Orton goes through his progressions and makes good decisions that he is said to do
Like it said in your article we could have the power house from week 1 all season.
My dad was in the hospital three years ago.
We went to visit him, and as a distraction, we put a Broncos preseason game on the screen. I remember leaping out of my seat as the rookie QB Cutler hit Kircus in stride for a long TD. AmazIng!
I remember Cutler hitting Javon Walker for a brilliant 65 yard TD to Javon Walker in Arizona. Breathtaking!
But where is Denver?
Jay Cutler’s physical talents are breathtaking. In the best of times, they leave me shaking my head and giddy. In the worst of times, I’m throwing objects all around the room. Luckily, we try to keep soft, squishy objects around. :)
So where am I? I wanted Jay Cutler and Josh McDaniels to get along. I wanted the offense that Shanny built to make The Leap. I wanted the points (rather than the yards) to flow. That didn’t happen. So where am I? Denver has the same offensive line (an elite group), the same wide receivers (I think the progression will be McCaffery to Wilson to Royal), and an underrated group of RBs (including Hillis….I was high on him early, and I remain VERY high to this point…wish my wife hadn’t picked him up in our keeper league :) ).
I want the defense to be intense. They may not be elite, but I want to believe that they will show up and leave it all on the field. I want the offense to be intense. They won’t have a QB that can make miracles happen…but I want them to break huddle as a team, the do whatever they need to move the ball forward and score points.
I want a team I can call the Denver Broncos. I wanted a Denver Broncos team that was lead by Jay Cutler…but if that isn’t where Jay wants to be, I want the Denver Broncos.
~Uffdah
obviously, you need to bribe the wife.
You know what she wants. Give till it hurts, but GET HILLIS!
Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 5, 2009 12:12 AM MDT up reply actions
Nope sorry...Hillis is mine!
I shall not be bribed! Besides, Styg…I usually get what I want anyway. ;-)
"I'm not looking for the best players; I'm looking for the right ones." ~Coach Herb Brooks in "Miracle"
by Colorado_Kitten on Apr 16, 2009 3:16 PM MDT up reply actions
I missed some points
Not that a leadership progression would go McCaffery to Wilson to Royal…but that my JERSEY progression would go McCaffery to Wilson to Royal. Otherwise, I was excluding Rod Smith…the man to whom all Broncos (hell, all football players, even MEN, should be measured). I don’t have a Smith Jersey…but I cannot have more respect for a man than I do for Rod. Just to clarify. :)
~Uffdah
I got my first jersey this year
after being a Bronco fan for 49 years. Royal.
It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09
Thats awesome...think my first will be Dawkins or Orton!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
I have my #47 John Kynch jersey... which I'm still proud of...
but I sure thought that I would get more mileage out of it while he was still on the team. I was on the verge of a Cutler jersey when all this happened. Dodged a bullet there! I guess my next one has to be either Royal or Clady. Marshall is still a question mark.
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
...er.... John Lynch
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
I can't believe what I'm reading
You almost have me believing if we would have traded Jay for Orton straight up it would have been a good deal. The fact of the matter is the Bears were doing coin flips to see if he would start last year. We didn’t have a coin flip to see if Cutler would start and I’m sure the Bears aren’t either with Cutler. I can see us flipping a coin this year though.
My first jersey #34 Tyrone Braxton 89’ . My second jersey #56 Al Wilson 01’. My third jersey #?? Raji / Maualuga
I don't think anyone is saying
that Orton (or Simms) is as good as cutler. jay made some plays neither of the other two could ever make. He also made some mistakes on throws neither of the other two would ever attempt. The problem is that football is an asymmetric game. Mistakes cost a lot more than good play benefit you. I don’t know if it’s true but my coach used to claim that you had to make 7 great plays to make up for a single turnover. So a less talented QB who simply doesn’t turn the ball over as much my not be a sexy, but he can actually help his team out more.
We may very well be flipping a coin to see who starts. But, in the end, it’s not yards, TDs, points that matter. It’s wins.
A comment from a new member
Hi guys! I’ve been lurking on MHR for over a year now, and firstly, I wanted to say how insightful I think the posts on this site are. In this time, MHR has become my first choice source for my Bronco news and analysis. I’m really glad I found my way here.
Now for my actual comment:
While I agree with most of the points made in the article, I’m have to disagree with this section:
In 2006 the Broncos were 7-4 despite averaging only 17.8 points per game when Cutler replaced Plummer, and went 2-3 the rest of the way, and lost the last game to miss the playoffs, despite averaging 24.8. Yes, the defense suddenly became much less effective, as it has been ever since Jay became quarterback.
I believe that this is, in fact, a coincidence that had nothing to do with Jay becoming the starter. The Broncos’ defensive shortcomings down the stretch in ‘06 and since then are a result of losing Al Wilson to a neck injury about the same time as Cutler was promoted (a game later if I’m not mistaken). The loss of Wilson’s impact on the defense as a player and leader are what has been missing, not loyalty to Jay. Al Wilson’s presence on the Bronco D has never been replaced, and that is why the defense has underperformed during the Jay Cutler era.
Welcome aboard
and good point. That’s what makes this such a great site, posters like you holding other posters accountable. I agree that the loss of Wilson (and Brandon) and Lynch’s abrupt decline had much to do with the collapse. So also was an increase in turnovers by the offense. While that is to be expected of a rookie QB is certainly was/is a factor.
Wilson made the DTs more effective
and protected Lynch, so a LOT was resting on him. Factor in his leadership, and that was the begining of the end.
I wonder often about what would have ahppened if he had stayed healthy. It is only a mental exercise, of course, but his play was beginning to decline before the injury, and its intriguing to picture how we would have ideally addressed the defense going forward if he hadn’t hurt his neck. Would we be here in 2009 saying draft Reyrey to replace Wilson who retired in 08? Would he have been cut after 07? After 08?
One thing is for sure, there seems to have been NO ONE to pick up the slack. Why Champ, DJ and Lynch weren’t able to keep the defense at a highlevel has been a persistent mystery, revolving around inept Dlines and bad coaching, but it really felt like they couldn’t make the rest of the defense CARE. I don’t doubt how much they cared, but the rest of our defense has always had a ‘meh’ feeling about it. Perhaps that comes from the abnormally high number of them that were ‘patchwork broncos’ and not born and bred (re. drafted) into the Blue and Orange.
A defensive haul is certainly to be valued in this draft, if that is the case, because in many ways, we have created an existing structure that is similar to what existed under Shanny: veterans from other teams, so sense of self and identity. A strong defensive draft, and an even stronger program from McD are absolutely critical right now…
Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 5, 2009 2:44 PM MDT up reply actions
I tend to push a theory till it breaks
No, Jay didn’t make the defense bad all by himself. Still, people who see the bottom line and conclude that quarterback A finds ways to win and quarterback B has excuses for losing aren’t all wrong. It’s not a stretch to imagine that a quarterback with a bad defense but a knack for winning might in little ways manage to help his defense out, by leaving them in better field position, by keeping them on the sidelines via ball control, by inspiring them and maybe even influencing them with body language. And maybe as a result going 21-16 instead of 17-20 and getting into the playoffs before getting knocked off. He’s not going to make a bad defense good and his team is not going to be a threat to win the Super Bowl, but he’ll raise his game enough at critical times and inspire his defense enough with his leadership to eke out a few wins that might otherwise have been losses. And I think one sign of a true leader is that his team will be far less likely to just pack it in, when they’re having an off day, and have a loss turn into a 40-point blow-out. That sort of thing has happened far too often during Cutler’s tenure. That happened to Elway, too, when we lost 55-10 to San Francisco, but Elway that day was up against a quarterback who was his equal with a team that was vastly superior.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
Welcome Bailey
Gosh, now all the Jay haters are going to blame him for Al’s injuries. Ouch!
I agree, Larsen shouldn’t get any bigger. I am getting tired of his bone crushing hits knocking the pixels off my TV, once they fall to the floor they are very hard to find.
by Arctic Bronco on Apr 6, 2009 10:54 PM MDT up reply actions
Yes!
So, styg? How should we used those two first round picks? Grab that RB, or go with D? I know, we have 5 in the top 84 (and could trade one to get to 6). It’s so tempting either way – any thoughts?
Hillis in '09
draft
I, for one, would like to any combination of 2 out of jenkins, jackson and maualuga with #12 and #18.
I’m also praying that connor barwin will be around in the second. I’d like to get a NT in the first couple of rounds, but there doesn’t seem to be anyone that really feels right early in this draft, which seems pretty weak at that position.
what do you guys think the chances are that barwin falls to #48?
by bailey disciple on Apr 5, 2009 3:17 PM MDT up reply actions
5 in the top 84
but 10 overall, with quality CFAs after the draft. I won’t know RB or D till we get to #12 but I will say that I have a preference for somehow getting any two of these guys:
OLB, Aaron Curry
RB, Knowshon Moreno
DB, Malcom Jenkins
WR, Michael Crabtree
TE, Brandon Pettigrew
RB, Chris Wells
RB, Andre Brown
C, Alex Mack
DT, BJ Raji
ILB, Rey Maualuga
ILB, James Laurinaitis
DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo
OLB, Connor Barwin
OLB, Brian Cushing
SS, Patrick Chung
If we reduce it to the guys most likely to still be there at #12 and beyond (our first educated guess), we get:
RB, Knowshon Moreno
DB, Malcom Jenkins
TE, Brandon Pettigrew
RB, Chris Wells
RB, Andre Brown
C, Alex Mack
ILB, Rey Maualuga
ILB, James Laurinaitis
OLB, Connor Barwin
OLB, Brian Cushing
SS, Patrick Chung
Next, I’ll remove anyone who I think we could potentially get at #48 (up to 30 picks later), and who plays at a position where there are other exceptional choices (by my rating, lets say 3 and 4 star prospects). This will be our second educated guess:
RB, Knowshon Moreno
DB, Malcom Jenkins
ILB, Rey Maualuga
ILB, James Laurinaitis
OLB, Connor Barwin
OLB, Brian Cushing
SS, Patrick Chung
Next, lets ADD any high value choices who are likely to be gone by #48 but that don’t have the as high of value as the above group had. We will cull from that group any players who play at a position where there are other exceptional choices (by my rating, lets say 3 and 4 star prospects) going forward in the 3rd and 4th rounds:
RB, Knowshon Moreno
DB, Malcom Jenkins
ILB, Rey Maualuga
ILB, James Laurinaitis
OLB, Connor Barwin
OLB, Brian Cushing
SS, Patrick Chung
RB, Andre Brown
WR, Jeremy Maclin
DE, Tyson Jackson
DT/DE, Peria Jerry
DT/DE, Evander Hood
WR, Hakeem Nicks
WR, Percy Harvin
CB, Vontae Davis
OLB, Clay Matthews
Next we will eliminate duplicate position choices, taking the best choice at each given position (and considering both players in the case of a tie):
RB, Knowshon Moreno
DB, Malcom Jenkins
ILB, Rey Maualuga
OLB, Connor Barwin*
OLB, Brian Cushing
WR, Jeremy Maclin
DE, Tyson Jackson*
Basically I would take any combination of two out of the above guys. The two guys with stars represent major variables, in that Barwin and Jackson both could slip to later, but neither seems likely to slip 30 spots all the way to #48. They would ideally be picked up in a trade back scenario, but I think they are eligible to take at #18 if no trade is possible. That is seven guys for 2 picks, any two of which I would be happy or content with. If we take any other players than these, I would assume that either someone (raji, perhaps) slipped to us, or that the Denver warroom disagrees with me about the depth of certain positions in this draft.
Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 5, 2009 6:08 PM MDT up reply actions
longer than I thought it was going to be...
whoops
Amnesty, the idea that you can forgive transgressions against you, gives as much to one side, as it does the other. It has the noble quality of bestowing mercy to both parties.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 5, 2009 6:09 PM MDT up reply actions
Not to beat a dead horse... but
Jay seems to me like that person in High School that was perhaps smarter or more mentally gifted than others but still got mediocre grades. This was the case because they knew that they could get the same results as other people with less effort. I think this attitude sometimes results in an overconfidence in there abilities.Then there was the other student that may have worked harder with less smarts and achieved a better result.
I feel like Jay is the qb version of the first student. Very gifted physically but not really interested in putting the study time into improve his game. He relies on his talent to overcome his bad habits which has cost the team dearly at times. In short in his mind he already is an elite QB and doesn’t need a coach that is going to try to teach him any different. I feel that Bates was probably too young to mentor him properly and Shanahan admitted last season that he only talked to him once or twice a week. I see McDaniels as having a more hands on role which may have been why Jay and McD didn’t see eye to eye from the start. Which boss do you like better the one that leaves you alone or the one that directs you more even if that improves you?
Orton or “neckbeard” seems to be the second type of student the one that isn’t as gifted but realizes his limits and realizes hard work and preparation can minimize that. He will study film and manage the game without taking the huge risks that Cutler would take. McDaniels seems to know that he can get farther with a QB that is willing to listen and learn the system with less talent than a gunslinger that fails to work on his bad habits. I think I would go with the student vs the gambler. Cutler is immensely talented and that may be his biggest downfall. In my opinion you want the consistent quarterback over the course of a career that is going to win more games than the gambler.
Just some thoughts. I am excited about the possibility that Orton may prove to be underrated when he actually has an O line and the talented receivers that he know has. Pour me a glass of the cool aid.
uhhhh
I meant to say " the talented recievers he now has. Can you imagine being Orton and basically winning the QB lottery by being traded from Chicago to Denver.
More and more
I think that Cutler’s arrogant tendences are just a front. I agree he certainly comes off arrogant..What, with the stronger-arm-than-Elway comment, the “I bet it is a sad day in Denver”, but the more of him I see, the more I think he’s just trying to deal with the pressure of the NFL. And of course this is all absolutely just my opinion.. But he is young, and he grew up in small-town Indiana. He just seems like he’s still trying to learn to deal with the added pressure of the fanbase, the media, and adjusting to the the “business aspect” of it. I don’t think he 100% wanted to play in Denver or for the Broncos, whichever it was, and for whatever reason, but I think that was the case once Shanny and Bates were gone, and so, he left. I’m happy for the Bears, I think he’ll do well there, and I think we will be all right too. And I wish him well.
New coach, new qb, new era.
"according to the map, we've only gone 4 inches"
Leadership issue
Good thoughts. However I think the decline of the defense coinsides coincidentally with Cutler’s insertion into the lineup, and DIRECTLY with Al Wilson’s injury.
Found this 2005 draft scouting report on Kyle Orton
Kyle Orton, QB, Purdue Sr 6-4, 233
By: Andy Silvester
Another QB here in the 3-7 range, who could still end up dotted from the bottom of the 2nd round to the top of the fifth. Orton began life as a true freshman starter and has played in all seasons since.
Positives
A true safety-first QB. Will never, ever force a deep ball or anything into double coverage unless it absolutely needs it (just 5 picks in his senior year). He has the field-reading skills of a 10 year NFL vet and can diagnose a blitz instantly, and is happy to sit in against it and make his reads. Good timing is a huge part of his play, especially in the underneath and short-medium range passes. He won’t even consider parting with the ball until he is certain his receiver is open, and may be on a par with plenty of NFL quarterbacks when it comes to play action – think ol’ Peyton but slightly less polished.
Negatives
One thing will stick out to NFL scouts – watching him throw a long ball is just plain painful. They’re either off target ( a long way ), underthrown so the receiver has to slow down to a crawl to receive it, or he sits in the pocket so long he gets snapped in two. Another warning sign has to be his benching towards the end of his senior season when it all fell apart rather briskly. One more slight knock is that he played almost all of his college career out of the shotgun spread offense, and will take a long time to adjust to the complexities of an NFL passing scheme.
Pro Potential
Orton is one of those QBs that you just know can be successful in a particular system. In a short to intermediate passing game he could well be a comfortable NFL starter as long as he can adjust to the rigours of the big league.
Best fit
Somewhere in a conservative system with plenty of underneath passes (think the Patriots) where he has a couple of years to learn his trade at a higher level. He gets those two – solid NFL QB in a few years.
Perfect
I’ve finally read something on here that agrees with what I’ve been thinking all along. I am just a poor writer.
That is exactly how I see it. Nice work!!
QB record
Orton was 9-5 in 2005, while having a season QB rating of less than 60. The Bears had the best defense in the league that year by a mile, Orton gave he ball away 18 times while scoring 9 TDs.
Orton was 8-6 in 2008, would have been 8-7 if he hadn’t gotten injured against Detroit and Rex Grossman had come in and gotten the win with a couple of TDs. He had an 80 rating with 17 giveaways and 21 TDs.
Orton has lost 5 games when the defense has given up 21 or fewer points and has played in 33 games.
Simms was 6-4 in 2005, with a more respectable rating of 81, but gave the ball away 11 times while scoring 10 TDs. In 2005 the Bucs had the best defense by yards, and the 7th best by points.
Simms has also lost 5 games when the defense has given up 21 or fewer points and has played in only 20 games.
Cutler on the other hand has never had a passer rating lower than 86, has never had a negative TD to turnover ratio with 9 to 7 in year 1, 21 to 18 in year 2, 27 to 20 in year 3.
Cutler has lost 1 game when the defense has given up 21 or fewer points while having started 37 games.
I don't think anyone
is saying that Simms or Orton are better than cutler. cutler is the better QB, that’s a given. The question is how much of a dropoff there might be between cutler/Shanahan-08 and Orton/simms/McD-09.
I would expect the total yards to go down, but only 1 of the top 5 offenses in 08 even made the payoffs. But will the overall team improve?
by SlowWhiteGuy on Apr 6, 2009 11:51 AM MDT up reply actions
more info
Good point but lets add sacks to you list of stats
Orton in 2005 2 sacks/gm
Orton in 2008 1.75 sacks/gm
Simms in 2005 2.64 sacks/gm
Cutler in 2006 2.6 sacks / gm (5 games)
Cutler in 2007 .875 sacks/gm
Cutler in 2008 .6875 sacks/gm
Cutler obviously benefited from a better offensive line too.
by Lean n' Mean on Apr 6, 2009 12:21 PM MDT up reply actions
One more stat
Cassell was sacked 47 times while throwing for almost 3700 yards with McD as his O Coordinator.
food for thought.
I hope we get some playmakers in the draft.
2 TDs to 4 INTs in the last three games of 08... to blow a playoff spot
Cutler on the other hand has never had a passer rating lower than 86, has never had a negative TD to turnover ratio with 9 to 7 in year 1, 21 to 18 in year 2, 27 to 20 in year 3.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Getting Social With MHR
Web Stuff
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Jim Irsay says he would welcome Peyton Manning back … at the right price
- Roddy White isn’t thrilled with Roger Goodell’s $20 million salary
- Could concussions actually kill football?
- J.T. Thomas arrested for possessing some marijuana
- Bucs hire Butch Davis as ‘special assistant,’ have no issue with his double-dipping
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
