I think Brace has had an upswing lately that’s inflated his value. We do know that there will be competition for 3-4 appropriate players but that’s already resulted in an inflated estimation of Brace’s value. I think assigning Brace to us at #48 is hardly far fetched. Quite the contrary, in fact he goes to us in many high quality MOCKs.

The downside is that Brace isn’t worth more than the #48 pick, even though he’s been embraced by some members with a little too much exuberance, perhaps because he’s offers an alternative to picking Raji in the 1st.

People are going to disagree about the ranking of specific players. I don’t presume that I can scout players, but I do take my guidance from good sources.

Scott Wright, a former NFL scout and owner of Scott Wright’s Draft Countdown, has Brace as the #55 ranked player and going to Jacksonville at #39. So, in his mock, which was done early last month (pre- Cutler trade), he does have Brace going earlier. He also has us taking Raji with the 1st pick and ‘Ziggy’ Hood with our #48, and I have to say I’d like that even more. I can only wonder who he’d have us picking at #18.

I see that Walter Cherepinsky of WalterFootball has us taking Brace in the 2nd, too. And his MOCK is very up to date, and he also has a high quality site. Some of the other MOCKers at FFT also assign Brace to us, too.

MOCKs may deviate from expectations in minor ways but if they’re well-designed and make no major errors then I have to give them credit.

It will be close. His position immediately after the season and though the all star games rose at that point but he’s fallen somewhat lately. It’s not so much because evaluators have turned off on him but the infusion of players into the upper ranks. He was considered a mid to late 2nd rounder at his peak but most good MOCKs have allowed him to slide since around January or a little later.

Just to show one — WalterFootball has him going at #77, 2 spots ahead of our 3a pick. FFT and WF are agreeing that he goes around that spot. Wright has him as the #46 BPA (#51 in his old MOCK), so it looks like he would go higher based on this. DrafTek’s simulation (revision 34) has him going at #71 (to Oak.), so it’s close according to them.

I’d settle for ‘a’ Safety, and Chung or Vaughn would work. I’d actually prefer Johnson but I’d be happy with one of the comparable Safeties in this range. There are some others, too, such as McBath and Martin

I really like Johnson as well, but I think wee need to address the front 7 with quality and size in rounds 1 and 2.
See my complete first round mock here

I stayed away from the McJaygate issue while it was unfolding but began to post once Styg50 posted his article on Cook. Although I remained mostly silent during that period — I was studying the issue. I admit to some impatience when it comes to explaining the thinking that goes into an agnatological investigation (i.e., the study of Public Relation campaigns, usually), so I apologize if I came off rather bluntly.

Re: the Broncos’ prospects. Attitudes around this time of the year (pre-draft) tend to be overly rosy, and there’s a concomitant tendency to inflate the likelihood that incoming draftees will make immediate, and significant, contributions. I use a team building template to view success. I’m less concerned with the outward signs of success, such as wins and playoff results, etc., than with inwards signs that a successful rebuilding is occurring. One diagnostic sign is the use of a multi-year planning. Teams that take a long-term view are better prepared for eventualities such as injuries, retirements, etc., and show this by how they go about their business.

McDaniels and Xanders show signs of having taken the planning aspects of team building up a notch. For whatever reason, team building became a lost art form earlier in this decade and the results eventually showed on the field. And this is because of the ‘lag effect.’ What teams do right or wrong (often) doesn’t appear till years later. By the same token, what we do right (or wrong) in this draft probably won’t be apparent for some time. The primary question for me would be — are we building towards something?

I would expect that this draft (if successful) will produce around the league average for draftee impact. A few players will contribute immediately (high picks) while most will have less impact. Next year’s draft will make a further contribution to building the nucleus of the team, so it will take until the end of the 2010 season before we’re able to get a preliminary measure of our success at team building, and we’d expect that most of the dividends would come in the following years. Expectations of instant success are unrealistic. Moreover, I’d regard advances far into the playoffs as fortuitous rather than an indication that we’d been successful in executing the team building project. This doesn’t mean that we can’t expect some wins, but rather, that we should be attending more to subtle indications that we’re on an upward slope. The use of arbitrary measures of success, such as appearances in conference title games, are part of the problem that led to our neglect of team building. Once you give in to the pressure to win tomorrow despite the cost to our future success you’ve accepted an idea that’s antithetical to the team building concept. Organizations such as Pittsburgh or New England have been able to retool without experiencing long down cycles because they were unwilling to sacrifice their core principles.