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Tales from the SunnySide: Alphonso Smith

The Tale of Alphonso Smith

There's not much debate about one thing - Alphonso Smith is the second 2nd-round pick in two years to ignite an instant firestorm of controversy in Denver. Eddie Royal managed it first - think back, now, to that weekend and to the things that were said.

When that 42nd pick came in, Broncos fans were shocked, stunned and horrified. Begrudgingly, they accepted that perhaps he could be worth the pick by his prowess in the return game.

Giving up a 2nd-round pick on a scrawny kick returner with some receiving skills was a big stretch, the media agreed, but perhaps Mike Shanahan really felt that the team needed a return guy. DeSean Jackson, the consensus went, would have been a better pick. Getting a defensive tackle would have been a much better way to go all around. And so it went. This year may prove to be somewhat redundant in that respect - everything that I've been able to accumulate about Smith indicates that he, very much like Eddie Royal, may become a favorite of the Broncos' fan base in the near future.

Star-divide

A brief bit of background - the best discussion of his high-school career came from Consensus Draft Services:

"Alphonso is a 2004 graduate of Pahokee (FL) High School where he was an all-everything athlete in both football and basketball. A talented player at both quarterback and defensive back for the football team, Antonio was runner-up for state Player of the Year as he helped the Blue Devils to a 13-1 record and the 2B state championship. He was named the MVP of the state title game during which he threw a 58-yard TD strike to current Deacon teammate Demir Boldin. As a quarterback, Alphonso threw for 2,400 yards and 32 touchdowns and also rushed for 640 yards and six rushing TDs. All in all, he was responsible for 38 touchdowns as a senior, including scores on interception, punt, kickoff and fumble returns. He notched 27 tackles, a sack and four interceptions as a cornerback, earning first-team all-state honors. He was also selected to play in the Outback Bowl and the Palm Beach All-Star Game. He was also a starting guard on the basketball team."

NFLDraftScout.com started their discussion about Alphonso Smith this way:

Smith is just the third player this century to amass 20 or more interceptions in a career, joining Jim Leonhard of Wisconsin (21, 2001-04) and Mitch Meeuwsen of Oregon State (20, 2001-04), and only the second in Atlantic Coast Conference annals to reach that lofty mark (Dre' Bly of North Carolina had 20, 1996-98). Only nine other players in the history of college football (all levels) have produced more interceptions in a career than Smith.

What makes Smith even more valuable at his position is his ability to make big plays in the backfield. Few cornerbacks, much less ones that stand just 5-feet-9 can boast having nine sacks, 23.5 tackles behind the line of scrimmage and eight forced fumbles on those hits during a career. He also adds to his resume as a capable kickoff returner, averaging 20.7 yards for his career, along with using his superb leaping ability and timing to block five kicks during his time at Wake Forest.

As I was researching this article, I kept reading the same sorts of information, laid out in slightly different ways, but containing no news or insight on the facts that would have helped me to understand this player, this pick. My thought was that unless I found out why Coach McDaniels was looking at this player at this time, the rest of the arguments wouldn't make sense. I got to the New Era Scouting report and finally found what I was looking for. Here it is:

Best Fit Position/Role: Boundary Corner

Ideal Schema/Role: Cover 2/Cover 3

Smith is a great playmaker at the corner position. He has the potential to change games when on the field. Beyond his excellent ball skills Smith has shown to be a complete player with his ability to blitz and play the run. His lack of size and top end speed make him an ideal zone coverage corner, and with his instincts and playmaking ability he will be able to play the long side of the field in that scheme and be left out on an island at times.

That put it all in perspective. Josh McDaniels is probably either going to a zone coverage system or is looking to use zone attributes for Smith. He believes that he will be able to play the long side of the field. He probably trusts him to be left on an island some of the time. It might be just that simple. Oh, and he's also aware that Smith's already accomplished something that exactly three college players in the past 100 years have done. When you consider this pick from that perspective, it suddenly makes a lot more sense. But is this right? After all, Cover 2 is a system in which there is a balanced approach to playing the pass and the run and which uses zone coverage to achieve that, while Cover 3 is a formation. They're not telling us everything. What else is missing?

Also from NFLDraftScout.com:

Man Coverage Ability: Smith is a natural ball thief with outstanding feet and ability to mirror and adjust to the receiver's movements. He can stick his hands in the face of his man to impede his opponent's vision of the ball in flight and does a very nice job of planting, redirecting and flipping his hips. He is equally efficient playing the trail, cover or cushion, and rarely allows cushion on the route.

That filled in a lot of the gaps. Apparently, Smith has some versatility. Where did New Era suggest that he be taken? Top 20, 1st round. Whichever side of the controversy you stand on, it's worth putting that into perspective, too. Won't the Broncos need a corner, this year or next? Of course. Did we have a chance to get a top-20 1st-round pick to add to 1st-rounders #12 and 18? Yes, and depending on where the Bears finish, we may have another. Are we going to use a zone-coverage system? Almost certainly, but having a player with the additional abilities to play trail, cover or cushion and to be a constant threat for interceptions as a ball-hawk adds spice to the soup. Whether you approve of the pick or not, it makes sense to try to understand why McDaniels would go this route, and there is a lot here to recognize. Are there things beyond his skill in coverage and at interceptions that might have drawn the Broncos?

There are - The NY Times ran a great article on Ed Reed, one of the greatest to ever play the game. Here's what they said:

When Reed joined the Ravens, another former Hurricane, Ray Lewis, taught him how to do his N.F.L. homework during early-morning and late-night film sessions, in season and out, often at Lewis's home. Other players marvel at the details Reed picks up; sometimes it is more than other players or even coaches have unearthed.

Whenever you see photos or film of the mini-camps, you can see Alphonso standing next to Champ Bailey. Smith is no fool - he's gifted with a chance to learn from one of the best corners in NFL history. He's constantly asking questions, listening to Champ, gaining insight. But what about the film room?

That's another area that Champ will teach Alphonso. He's a pro in the film room, and he does incredible prep every week, for every game. Sun Tzu, in his immortal work ‘The Art of War' noted, "First, know yourself. If you know yourself and you know your enemy, you will not be defeated, even in 100 battles." Champ may not read Sun Tzu (although I wouldn't be surprised if he did), but he understands the lesson inherent here. The cornerback who already knows what his opponent likes to do, tends to do and will do unconsciously has a huge advantage. Speed is nice, but it's of little use if you are at the seam and your receiver has broken to the sideline. Height is good, but it doesn't matter if the cornerback is between you and the ball and has already deflected it. Knowledge is the second key of a great cornerback.

What is the first key? As Charles Dimry, cornerback for the Denver Broncos in the early 1990s and a 12-year veteran of the game told me, the first key of a great cornerback is confidence. Confidence is what matters because every single cornerback is going to get burned. Look up the top-10 cornerbacks in history and you have a great list of the guys who have been burned, over and over. They just didn't let it get to them. They came back just as confident, shook it off and used their skills to harm the confidence of those who beat them the first time, or even used it as overconfidence to snatch the next pass out from their very hands.

New Era Scouting covered that, too:

Smith is fearless on the field, routinely coming up to support the run. A natural playmaker, Smith left Wake Forest as the ACC's career leader with 21 interceptions. This penchant for the big play translated onto the practice field at the Senior Bowl, where Smith intercepted passes in front of hundreds of scouts on each of the first three days of work.

Inevitably, it all comes down to this; Alphonso Smith is one of the top college CBs of the past decade - and beyond. He's set records, disheartened opponents, has football intelligence, experience at playing quarterback that he translates into his cornerback position, and possesses playing speed and timing that are other-worldly.

But he's 5'9" (and change). To some, that's the kiss of doom in the pros. To others, it's a fact of life that has a relatively small impact in correlation to the other factors present. To McDaniels, it was a simple decision. He had four #1 picks  over the next two years, and he chose to use three of them this year. He felt that Smith was a consensus 1st-round pick and that given what they saw in their copious film on him, that he was worth the pick. It was worth it in part because by doing it this way, they got a full year's experience from a player, and it made the player one year closer to being ready to start in the NFL. He used it, and that's the end of that part of the story. Whether you support it or not - it's done.

But a question that is constantly ignored in the heat of a superficial ‘is he/isn't he' type of discussion is this - What is his best use and what type of coverage is he perfectly suited for? You see, that's the real question here. Not where he should have been drafted, not whether a #1 next year is worth a #2 this year, not how tall he is. If you understand where he belongs in coverage, you can begin to formulate how the Nolan/McDaniels secondary is planning to play, because that's exactly what he's being chosen and groomed for.

Consensus Draft Services didn't rate him that highly, compared to the other scouting reports out there. In fact, they were the only one to consider him solely a second-round pick, so I want to get their opinion in this as well. I'm trying to be fair, despite my feelings on this subject. Here is what they had to say:

Amazingly gifted athlete who plays much bigger than he lists. Exceptional anticipation skills, and really reads the QB like a book. Jumps routes and disguises what he is going to do until the last second. Can play a little bump and run, despite his stature. Strong and compact for his size. Will fight the ball away from bigger receivers. Times his leaps and his deflections perfectly. Dekes the QB into committing, then jumps the route and picks the ball. Very good hands for the interception. Gifted technician who does not get by just on his excellent speed. Versatile. Big play corner. Ball hawk and game changer

Okay, please remember that these are the folks who didn't think him as highly rated, and that alone should give you pause. Their knock on him is size, purely and without equivocation, although they tossed in that his vertical leap wasn't elite, and that's true too.  And, that said, here was what they described as his weaknesses:

Size will always be a limiting factor, but he should start as a nickel year one in a good secondary, or start year one for a team with no proven NFL-caliber corners. Career starter from at least year two. #2 corner for anybody, and a Pro Bowl verge player.

This is a player who they expect to be a career starter at year two and, as they suggested earlier, he's going to be the nickel starter this year unless Jack Williams gets a bonfire lit under him. He should be a #2 corner who can play multiple approaches in a zone coverage and/or a Pro Bowler. And this is from the people that don't like him as well. That really means a great deal, because it tells us just how good the draft scouts think he will be.

Alphonso Smith and the Combine

Alphonso Smith really didn't have a great Combine. In a world where careers and millions of dollars ride on doing a group of exercises that may and may not particularly have anything to do with your future job or present skill level (and yes, I'm prejudiced about anyone's Combine, because at this point so much of the scout grading starts to ignore the film), Smith had the following scores:

5'9"+ 190 lbs.

40 - 4.51 (cds said 4.53)

Bench - 13 - not much of a factor in zone coverage and his arms are long for his size

Broad jumped an impressive 10'9"

Vertical - 34 (some are using 32, but 34 is the accurate Combine number)

3 cone - 7.09

20-yard shuttle - 7.38

He's not scoring highly in any of these categories. Despite this, his film and on-field abilities are absolutely stellar. Looking at his records, you have to recognize his skill set and quality. Looking at the Combine numbers alone, perhaps he's not as good. The question will be whether or not he can make the jump to the NFL level, and that question remains. On one side are the measurables; on the other, the film and performance record. They just don't agree, and that's certainly something that's worth debating.

Alphonso Smith: NCAA Career Rankings

The next part of this debate is purely a discussion of what his college performance was like. To answer that fairly, you have to be willing to look at his NCAA career rankings. It's true that the pros are not the same as college opponents, but no one argues that Knowshon Moreno is any less of a back because he decimated other college players. As far as Smith's NCAA rankings, there are several, among players active in 2008:

  • Interceptions - #1
  • Interceptions - yards - #7
  • Interceptions for TDs - #1
  • Interceptions per game - #3
  • Punt Returns, TD - 18

To help people make their decisions, I've included some YouTube links that show off his work. I can't add much more - his accomplishments speak for themselves

Leveling Shun White

Interception YouTube:  

Highlight YouTube: 

And finally, getting his freak on, pregame

Injury History

As you probably know, I always look at a player's injury history when formulating an opinion on him. I took a long look at Smith's, and found very little. In fact, he's never missed a single game.

Eddie Royal? As long as we're comparing ill-received 2nd-round picks, let's recall that Eddie came with a warning label. He'd had several leg issues from a problem with a hamstring pull to compartment syndrome in his calf, and from a leg bruise to a sprained toe. There was a lot of hue and cry that a man his size couldn't hold up in the NFL. Now? Yes, I know, they are different players...but the total lack of injuries matters when you're looking at a player. A four-year starter who has never missed a game is a rare player, no matter how you perceive him.

A lot of pre-draft scouting reports suggested that Smith has a lot in common with the game of Jim Leonhard. I've added a link to help you understand what that might mean. That's a good compliment.

I'm not interested in changing a man's point of view. The right to one's opinions is sacrosanct. What I am interested in is expanding the knowledge basis that makes up that opinion. After that, which way you go doesn't matter to me at all.

Alphonso Smith has already done what only three men in a century have done. Does that make him a great pro? No. As a matter of fact, many very good college corners can't play in the NFL. But in general, that's not about size. It's about skill. His level of skill isn't unusual. It is very good. He's one of the best college players in a decade - and very likely, longer than that. That's what makes it far more likely that he'll be a good - a very good - NFL cornerback. That, precise timing, superb reflexes, and a tremendous football intelligence. Those things aren't opinion. They're just facts.

Beyond that, we really can't say. There will be no end in sight to the size/skill debate, and that's as it should be. The answer will only come with time, with practice, and with a new NFL season of football. I don't know about you, but just from me personally -

Bring on Training Camp!

If anyone would like to suggest or recommend a particular player for Tales from the SunnySide, please contract Doc at mhrtales@gmail.com

26 recs  |  Comment 69 comments |

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BALL HAWK!!

A Smith – Junior & Senior Years – 15 Interseptions for 199 return yards and 3 td!!
Thanks, Broncobear for another great intallment. Rec

To accomplish great things, we must not only act, but also DREAM; not only plan, but also BELIEVE.

by Broncobh on May 18, 2009 2:55 PM MDT reply actions  

Blocking five kicks on sheer athletic ability is Beastly.

 Love droppping by here time to time to read the analysis posts. Can’t believe you dropped a little SunTzu action in there.

by andyreidswaistline on May 22, 2009 9:06 AM MDT up reply actions  

Fantastic Tales, Doc! Rec'd!

And I am SOOOO ready for training camp!

"From the get-go, we targeted a certain type of player: tough, smart, competitive, versatile, a good person that loves football and wants to win." -Coach McDaniels

by Colorado_Kitten on May 18, 2009 3:03 PM MDT reply actions  

Getting excited about special teams

Like a lot of people around here, I’ve been conditioned to think of a player’s special teams ability in terms of returns. After all, it’s easy to identify the contribution of the guy who’s catching the ball. But here, it’s the fact that the blocked five kicks that stands out. If you look at Darrell Reid, Alphonso Smith and David Bruton, you see a shift to picking up players who are skilled at BLOCKING the kicks and punts. The Broncos are now valuing people who play different roles on ST. This really thrills me.

by Chibronx on May 18, 2009 3:14 PM MDT reply actions  

not to mention

blocking for the returners and tackling the other teams return guy. I have hated every aspect of our return game for the last 10 years (in terms of production and field position). I’m just glad we finally have a coach who pays attention to that stuff.

Have a good time all the time...that's my motto. - Viv Savage

by TD4HOF on May 18, 2009 4:29 PM MDT up reply actions  

I really like this pick...

but saying that he is only the 3rd player this century to rack up 20 picks sounds more impressive than it is…“this century” started less than 10 years ago.

Al Brosky, Illinois (1950-52) 29 interceptions / 356 yards
John Provost, Holy Cross (1972-74) 27 / 470
Martin Bayless, Bowling Green (1980-83) 27 / 266
Tom Curtis, Michigan (1967-69) 25 / 440
Tony Thurman, Boston College (1981-84) 25 / 221
Tracy Saul, Texas Tech (1989-92) 25 / 425
Jeff Nixon, Richmond (1975-78) 23 / 377
Jim Bolding, East Carolina (1973-76) 22 / 143
Bennie Blades, Miami (Fla.) (1984-87) 22 / 355
Mike Sensibaugh, Ohio State (1968-70) 21 / 226
Barry Hill, Iowa State (1972-74) 21 / 202
Chuck Cecil, Arizona (1984-87) 21 / 241
Terrell Buckley, Florida State (1989-91) 21 / 501
Jamar Fletcher, Wisconsin (1998-00) 21 / 459
Jim Leonhard, Wisconsin (2001-04) 21 / 251

Again, I love this guy, and I love the article. 20 Picks is impressive in any century.

Have a good time all the time...that's my motto. - Viv Savage

by TD4HOF on May 18, 2009 3:15 PM MDT reply actions   1 recs

New fan in NC

You have a new fan in NC. Phonze SET the ACC record with 21 interceptions in our bowl game this year. Great article, you will be happy with your pick.

by deacon85 on May 23, 2009 5:47 PM MDT up reply actions  

Yippeee!
I’m not interested in changing a man’s point of view. What I am interested in is expanding the knowledge basis that makes up that opinion.

I love this. Bear, you have a way of informing us that is definitely worthy of the name “Sunny side.” This tale stands as a testimony to the intelligence of Pat Bowlen and Coach McJedi, and make the dreams of all La-La Landers’ achieveable. Thank you for your research and I look forward to the next “Tales.” Rec’d and Buzz’d

With the 12th pick, the Broncos select Knowshon Moreno - Roger Goodell
That'll move the chains - Andy Samberg

by KaptainKirk on May 18, 2009 3:16 PM MDT reply actions   1 recs

awesome insight into the man behind the name
rec'd

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and hope you come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on May 18, 2009 3:20 PM MDT reply actions  

Thanks Bear....like I said before my head did an exorcist spin while screaching, "What!" at the Eddie Royal pick..

Man was I wrong. I did almost the same thing with the Alphonso pick after finding out it cost us a number 1 pick next year. But this is no kidding…it was my experience with Royal that helped me keep my cool. Instead of thinking it was stupid I did a quick study on Alphonso. I not only now think he is a great pick….he is a high-energy-player with a built-in-excitement-for the game that you don’t see very often. Man, I am really happy i didn’t get around to buying a Cutler jersey…..now I got to figure out who.

Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.

by Mike Clark on May 18, 2009 3:36 PM MDT reply actions  

I watched...

…his one-on-one just before reading this and combine the two and its hard not to be very optimistic about this guy. He seems to combine it all: talent, skill, experience, brains and character. Usually guys like that are good bets.

I am an idiot walking a tightrope of fortune and fame
I am an acrobat swinging trapezes through circles of flame
If you've never stared off in the distance, then your life is a shame
and though I'll never forget your face,
sometimes i can't remember my name.
--Counting Crows, "Mrs. Potter's Lullaby"

by PredominantlyOrange on May 18, 2009 3:36 PM MDT reply actions  

Great article Bear...

Looking forward to seeing all the new faces in blue and orange!!

Moreno in 2009! - Check
Taylor Mays in 2010!

by Steve O' on May 18, 2009 3:44 PM MDT reply actions  

Smith

Certainly taking Smith caught me off guard. I had us pegged for taking the guy out of Utah later or so. When I think about last year though we seemed to get killed by our third CB when they were on the field. How often did Denver make the opponents number 3 receiver look like a stud?
With Champ and veteran company locking up sections of the field I can see lots of balls being funneled to wherever Smith’s zone is. I like his odds to be a playmaker for this team.

Tis better not to throw it to the deep receiver but the open receiver.

by Kfustud on May 18, 2009 3:50 PM MDT reply actions  

Thanks Bear!

I’m very, very excited to see Smith do his thing on the field next year. I was already confident he would be great, but the additional detail and analysis you provided here made me even more so. : )

by NedBronco on May 18, 2009 4:05 PM MDT reply actions  

Great info!

Great job Bear, full of interesting info. I to was a bit skeptical when I first heard the pick. Since then I have done some research as well and came up with a few of these tidbits you tossed our way. I do have to say I did not find near the amount of info you have here. Keep up the good work! Go Broncos!!!!

by Broncanatic on May 18, 2009 4:31 PM MDT reply actions  

i hate that misleading stat

nice article, but i think you got nabbed by that very misleading NFLDraftScout stat (“Smith is just the third player this century to amass 20 or more interceptions in a career”). by “this century,” i think they are referring to the year 2000 on, not the last 100 years. otherwise, the other stats don’t make sense.

by ssc on May 18, 2009 5:38 PM MDT reply actions  

ah too late

sorry, i just saw TD4HOF’s post. apologize for the double post.

by ssc on May 18, 2009 5:42 PM MDT up reply actions  

It's Ok

It did confuse me!

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Doc Bear on May 18, 2009 6:13 PM MDT up reply actions  

Wow, Fast Eddie and now the Phonz!!

Thanks, Bear, for helping us to become a bit more acquainted with him and to understand why they selected him. He’s going to help that secondary become a strength . . .

Never argue with a fool, lest you take on his appearance. - my daddy

by AZDynamics on May 18, 2009 6:19 PM MDT reply actions  

Plays smart and fast.

What more could you want in a CB. Nice article Bear.

by bchiper on May 18, 2009 6:23 PM MDT reply actions  

Excellent Story

We should have a very exciting secondary to watch this year. May there be many third-and-long’s.

by phondonkey on May 18, 2009 6:28 PM MDT reply actions  

I can’t wait to hear the Mile High crowd shout “AYYYYY” with thumbs extended after this guy makes a play.

by Velveeta on May 18, 2009 6:45 PM MDT reply actions  

Great job on the post Doc!

It is nice to be able to get the skinny on these new guys without having to do the research! Buzzed and Rec’d.

It is better to keep silent, and appear to be wise, then to ramble on and remove all doubt! The Wisest Man, Solomon.

by metalman5050 on May 18, 2009 7:38 PM MDT reply actions  

Royal

When Royal was the pick, I was celebrating, the great 40 time and the most reps for the bench press from RW and TE’s, along with character, sounds like we’re finishing the team with the same type of dudes!

by bmania on May 18, 2009 8:08 PM MDT reply actions  

Awesome post.

I fell in love with Alphonso before his press conference even finished. Great character, and the football skills to match. And the more I read or see, the more excited I get. Bring on Training Camp, indeed!

"Man of few words, aren't you?"

by Tempestuous Binary on May 18, 2009 8:29 PM MDT reply actions  

Stature, statistics, and intangibles

How often do we need to see an athlete perform beyond our expectations before we realize heart and dedication mean more than combine performance or a tape measure? This incredible young man is going to go prove everyone who skipped over him just how valuable his talents are. Go ahead! Take someone two inches taller and see if it makes you a player! I teach juniors golf and it’s not the most physically gifted kids that amaze me, it’s the ones who apply themselves and outperform those with more talent. This kid has something to prove and I for one can’t wait to see him do it.

by Ponderosa on May 18, 2009 8:30 PM MDT reply actions  

Great post, Bear....

I’m very excited about this pick…

"I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today" -- Wimpy J. Wellington

by Broncs Cheer on May 18, 2009 9:16 PM MDT reply actions  

Fantastic post!

You really do set high standards for this website. I love your articles and am that much more excited about “The Phonz”.

"Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence."

Vince Lombardi

by Denver_Native on May 18, 2009 9:18 PM MDT reply actions  

Hey guys, if Smith can prove that he is prime starter this year, would you be up to trading Champ?

I mean we can all agree that Champ is getting up there in age and he hasnt been himself the past 2 years b/c of injuries, but if Champ can do well this year and we can get great value for him, i would be up for it.

by Calibroncoboy on May 18, 2009 9:22 PM MDT reply actions  

No

Champ still has something left, and in this era of free agency, I want to see him retire as a Bronco. Let him teach our young corners some things.

by BroncosBassist on May 19, 2009 4:18 AM MDT up reply actions  

I'll add my "no" as well

We’re going to need Champ for our 2010 SB run! And then we’ll need him for our 2011 back-to-back campaign.

If we could have just screwed another head on his shoulders, he would have been the greatest QB who ever lived.

by c_style on May 19, 2009 12:42 PM MDT up reply actions  

Another great post!

How many second round draft choices have their own press conference? He left me with a great first impression…well spoken, confident, and happy to be a Bronco! Of course his play on the football field speaks volumes. I think we made great strides in improving the secondary and that is priceless!

by sbsbroncofan on May 18, 2009 10:13 PM MDT reply actions  

Champ is champ

Champ had a fantastic year playing soft cover that allowed him to read the QB and react to the ball faster than the reciever could.

Then came Bates with his messed up idea of defense that put Champ up close and turned his back to the QB in coverage.

Then two more years of needing him to play outside backer and make tackles as well as cover down field and we wonder why his production has declined.

See how this defense lets him play before you start talking of trading one of the best corners in the league.

"Now we have them where we want them"
-Kieth Bishop - On the Denver 2 yard line, Cleveland Ohio, 1987

by AlanC on May 18, 2009 11:51 PM MDT reply actions  

comment of draft position

I’ll talk about Smith later, but I wanted to point out that many teams can be excoriated for their drafts if we believe some of the draftnik sites. I was just looking at DrafTek’s Big Board and the actual draft — the divergence is stunning. Either all the teams are crazy or the draftniks got it wrong, way wrong. My point is that criticism of Denver’s draft has obvious roots in the Cutler-gate controversy, but many other teams are open to the same criticism if one views the amount of supposedly poor draft choices.

by Colinski on May 19, 2009 2:12 AM MDT reply actions  

I completely agree!

Imagine if McJayGate had never happened. Shanahan is fired and Jay’s response is “He is a great coach and a better man, but I’m looking forward to whatever changes we make in order to win!” Then McDaniels is brought in. Reports from the workouts and minicamp are gushing over the already tight relationship between Josh and Jay – Brady who? Cassel who? Stories pour out of the DP and ESPN about how improved Cutler’s technique already seems to be; how this is the making of a dynasty! Oh then…on top of that! Then we draft Moreno! Holy cow! Nothing is going to stop these Broncos! I know they were only 8-8 in ‘08 but – move over Steelers and Patriots, because the sky’s the limit for this team!

"From the get-go, we targeted a certain type of player: tough, smart, competitive, versatile, a good person that loves football and wants to win." -Coach McDaniels

by Colorado_Kitten on May 19, 2009 3:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

more comments -- long post

Smith was actually considered a ‘value’ for the spot he was taken, so the consensus Big Board that DrafTek uses placed him as a late 1st round choice. Many sources placed him higher. For instance, Scout’s ranking of prospects which specifically considered Combine performance put Smith as the 2nd best CB, and there are other (quality) rankings that had similar rankings, although I won’t attempt provide links here.

Discussing the reaches/ & values — DrafTek shows a great number of reaches, and they frequently run into the hundreds. DrafTek’s Big Board is carefully culled from some of the best sources so they represent the ‘best’ of what was out there. And they still show that virtually all teams reached (in the opinion of draftniks) and often reached massively.

My point — which I’m attempting to make as clear as possible here — is that critics have ample ammunition for attacking the wisdom of ANY team’s draft strategy, that’s IF they assume that the draftnik sites are correct in their player evaluations and the teams were wrong.

Evaluations of Smith are uniform in their praise of him. And this is unusual, and you’d be hard pressed to find any other draft prospect who’s regarded in such a uniformly positive manner.

I like to compare Smith to Butler, as well as some of the other CBs such Jenkins, because Butler’s rise helps explain the thinking that teams employed in their draft decision as well as the slight re-ordering of the CB pecking order. Firstly, I prefer Smith to Butler because Butler has a weakness in run support.

Butler’s rise in the CB rankings (although not all, as he comes in at #6 versus Smith’s #2 on Scout) exemplifies the metric-based thinking that often takes hold before the draft. There’s also a rough re-shuffling that occurs as team’s use a comparative logic to rank position groups, and this ranking ultimately translates into overall BPA rankings.

What’s apparent in Denver’s overall draft strategy is an emphasis on on-the-field ability and production. Metrics are considered, but they’re not the overriding criteria, as dramatically illustrated by teams such as Oakland.

Moreover, as Hoosier Teacher so ably explained, much of Denver’s draft was guided by the desire to find DBs with pass coverage ability. This is especially noticeable with the Safeties, who are unusual in their pass coverage abilities, and this ability doesn’t come at the expense of run support. Whereas many Safety prospects are now specialists, who can do one thing well but have weaknesses in another area, Denver’s DB prospects lack for little in pass coverage ability while still showing skill in run support.

One possible exception to this rule is Bruton, who I happen to like more than most here, although I’m not overlooking the weaknesses in his game. It’s unlikely that later picks (he was a 4th rounder) will meet all the draft criteria, and Bruton’s weaknesses are clearly not physical but experiential so he can be considered a developmental project, but the obvious answer to his selection is his extraordinary Special Teams ability.

This brings us to a second issue regarding Denver’s draft — the Broncos were more than willing to sacrifice value in order to get prospects that they liked. They often paid a premium to get the players they wanted. This deserves an explanation. Curiously, I came to a similar conclusion regarding what would be the correct draft strategy prior to the draft.

The tendency is to regard value like money and hope that your team can conserve value (draft picks) while at the same time buy as much (draft players) as possible, thus receiving the most talent for your picks. In a general sense, more is more, but there are important caveats and limitations to this strategy. Getting what you want is also extremely important, although there’s often complaints about this strategy from fans who believe the team has ‘thrown away’ value that could be used to acquire more talent.

The fear of ‘wasting value’ leads people to confuse ‘goodness of fit’ with ‘superior talent.’ This takes some thinking, I admit. The tendency is to view this hypothetical value as fungible and any expenditures as wasting talent. This is what I call the ‘willy nilly acquisition theory,’ in which teams obtain as much talent as possible and let competition sort things out.

The ‘hopscotch math’ of increased draft utility doesn’t allow teams to improve their draft merely by dogmatically increasing value (think of a number line), because — in part — BPA is a mathematical idealization that doesn’t exist! Also, roster limitations make much of the added talent superfluous when players are later cut.

To illustrate this idea — a team sees a player they know will fit their system and is highly skilled. They want to draft him but they’re worried that he won’t be available. Should they move up? Let’s say they don’t and wait, only to find him gone. Value becomes a nearly useless concept if teams have to settle for players that have appropriate BPA ranking but are inappropriate to their scheme. There’s an “apples and oranges” comparison going on here that assumes that all players can be ranked on a single number line. It’s helpful to view the concept of ‘goodness of fit’ as perpendicular to the that value number line. For instance, a player such as Orakpo was good according to BPA rankings but he probably was in-appropriate (I’ll ignore discrepancies in ratings, which is a moot point).

The dogmatic belief in value is like trying to build a house by going to the building products store and buying as many low priced bargains as you can find and then expecting that all that value you preserved will become a well-built house.

To use another example — many people apparently believe that if Denver had spent draft picks on more DLs during the draft then we would have a better DL. Oddly, caponomics produces a situation in which money that’s used unwisely is wasted, so purchases made under BPA logic can still be wise (in the bargain sense) but are a waste of money. I like the example of cheap tools that one buys at a discount store. They appear to be a deal, because they fit into the tool category and supposedly do all the things that more expensive tools do, but they wind up being thrown away in favor of a higher quality product. You don’t save money by going cheap, since it’s not the difference in cost between the cheap tools and the more expensive ones, you lose the entire cost of the cheap tools. And many people foolishly do this, and they do it over and over again.

more later………………….

by Colinski on May 19, 2009 3:53 PM MDT up reply actions   2 recs

Excellent discourse Colinski

I understand what you are saying. I imagine that was hard to put thought into words. This computes to a good return on the investment. +1

With the 12th pick, the Broncos select Knowshon Moreno - Roger Goodell
That'll move the chains - Andy Samberg

by KaptainKirk on May 19, 2009 6:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

there's a lot to this subject

I’ve pondered this subject but it IS hard to put some aspects to words so analogies work best. Most people have been in situations (e.g. repeatedly buying cheap but inadequate goods) so they recognize the problem with buying ‘deals’ that never quite add up to what you want or need.

Fungibility is a mathematical nicety. Despite what they say about BPA, player ability is not a magnitude on a single number line. No matter how good a player is, if he’s not good for you then he’s ‘not good.’

Filling needs and taking the BPA are different criteria. There’s an inherent contradiction that many analysts make on this subject. And this doesn’t even address the problem of teams having produced a different BPA rating than the draftniks. It’s as if people are saying don’t trust your scouting reports and, either, don’t take what you need, or, don’t take what you want.

by Colinski on May 19, 2009 8:28 PM MDT up reply actions  

generally agree, but...

First off let me say that I like the players we drafted… in no way is my slight concern about the players… its more about the draft pick management and potential sacrifice of value.

My potential concern is that the draft strategy used by McD/X assumes teams/scouts actually can accurately identify talent/fit. This in the face of evidence which shows even the best drafting teams only hit on maybe 65% of their picks.

McD’s draft strategy presumes that the guys they gave up value to get (for example Alphonso and Quinn) are at least that much more likely to be a success in McD’s system than the (multiple) guys they might otherwise have grabbed. The high NFL washout rate and the uncertainty in projecting college players into pro systems, is why many teams emphasize the “maximize value”/shotgun approach to drafting. Given the general uncertainty of all picks, this strategy if used consistently may be unsustainable.

Now, without seeing the team’s draftboard and evaluation of the guys we took vs. the guys we might have taken had we not moved up, and the eventual performance of these players on the field, I have no way to evaluate whether the draft strategy was optimal for this particular draft class.

However, I do think the strategy employed does imply a level of arrogance/self-confidence/hubris in McD/X’s draft evaluation skills. McD and X basically said, we know what we’re looking for, we see it in these players, and we’ll get it…. If they are as good as they think they are and these players are “hits”, then they’ll have proven the strategy to be correct. The team will succeed over the long-run, and fans like us will rejoice.

However, if any/many of these guys washout and “miss”, McD & X have already basically eliminated any margin for error… they sacrificed value to get “their guys”, so McD and X will sink or swim given the results.

Should be interesting to see either way.

by cjfarls on May 19, 2009 9:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

This
However, I do think the strategy employed does imply a level of arrogance/self-confidence/hubris in McD/X’s draft evaluation skills. McD and X basically said, we know what we’re looking for, we see it in these players, and we’ll get it…. If they are as good as they think they are and these players are "hits", then they’ll have proven the strategy to be correct. The team will succeed over the long-run, and fans like us will rejoice.

will be the difference. IMO

With the 12th pick, the Broncos select Knowshon Moreno - Roger Goodell
That'll move the chains - Andy Samberg

by KaptainKirk on May 19, 2009 10:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

Not quite...

you are making an assumption that the value the “experts” have assigned players is a true representation of the players true value. If that were the case, then what you say has credence. But the “experts” who really aren’t experts at all, just journalists, have an even worse record that many teams.

What this turns into is a huge gamble involving risk and uncertainty. Generally speaking, in a climate of high risk and uncertainty the optimal strategy is to minimize your risk of loss. Hence trading away future risk/uncertainty for a player you feel is less risky today is a sound strategy. Heavy game theory/prospect theory so I don’t want to bore everyone. But it is a mathematically sound strategy and not at all arrogant.

by SlowWhiteGuy on May 19, 2009 11:20 PM MDT up reply actions  

No. I meant

That McD and X’s assessment of Personnel and fit to their grand design will be the difference, and that they would surely have to be somewhat arrogant/confident in this.
And that the difference would equate to success in the near AND distant future.

With the 12th pick, the Broncos select Knowshon Moreno - Roger Goodell
That'll move the chains - Andy Samberg

by KaptainKirk on May 20, 2009 11:04 AM MDT up reply actions  

after pondering this for a long time (another long post)

Yes, they should be confident, although much of the character assassination against McDaniels because of Cutler-gate focused on portraying him as an egomaniac, etc., which had no empirical support.

There is a tendency to compare paying a premium for good fits to stretches, which, as I’ve said, are more often the players whose physical metrics and apparent ‘upside’ lures teams into thinking that they will succeed (and they sometimes do) if only given the proper coaching. ‘Upside’ players often present a risk initially, too. Brandon Marshall had character concerns that moved teams to eliminate him from their board. We took a chance and received a high reward but paid a price when his suspension(s) revealed that character concerns were a real concern.

To add to a point I made before — the profile of many (nearly all) of our draftees is low risk. That was the point of emphasizing character. Avoiding locker room cancers and getting players who would dedicate themselves to learning the game and become good teammates had an upside, too.

Our emphasis in this draft was on on-the-field production, so we didn’t try to project players at positions they hadn’t performed. They’ve already shown they can handle the positions that we’ll be using them at, so the risk that they’ll washout is quite low. Washout rates are misunderstood, too, since players washouts are often relative to expectations. They underperform mostly, rather than being complete busts. And it’s often character problems, i.e., off-the-field issues, that contribute to these busts. Another factor is lack of stability in the demands made of them, or being rushed into service too soon. High profile draftees that are drafted by losing franchises misuse their talent. Sometimes it’s the quick turnover of coaching staffs, who are fired because of the team’s poor performance. Each new staff may have different expectations and uses for a player, so players are continually re-learning their position or learning new ones (in essence).

Oddly, it’s the lack of reaches that some fans are complaining about. To use an example — why didn’t we take Maualuga? Or, why didn’t we go after more of the DLs? I think the answer in both cases is risk. I wasn’t down on Maualuga but a lot of teams passed on him for some reason. Was it because he didn’t perform that well technically (overrunning plays like Webster) but made his reputation on big, crowd pleasing hits? Was he a two-down player, whose cost couldn’t be justified because he wouldn’t see the field enough?

Let me point out something — every single draftee in this class has a roster position that he can easily fill. Take a look at the roster.

1a) – Moreno. This is too easy, despite the MSM’s poor math on this subject. Of course we needed a feature back, especially like him. GOODNESS OF FIT: excellent. CONCERNS: almost nothing, no injuries, character problems, etc.

1b) – Ayers. Obviously a big need. GOODNESS OF FIT; fits our system very well, although many don’t understand why yet. Has superior ability and technique. Can run stop, so he doesn’t fall into the one-dimensional pass rusher group, where washouts are a big concern. CONCERNS: few, some criticism of late bloomer status, but this is typical. Has good physical metrics (very strong lower body), production (pressures, TFLs) in good competition, shows good speed – 4.7 something at Pro day.

2a) – Smith. Certainly room. Everyone except Williams is a cast off. High production and looks very good on tape. GOODNESS OF FIT: very good, should benefit greatly from tutelage by Champ. No pressure to produce prematurely and won’t be used unlike what he’s already done.

2b) – McBath. Lots of room. GOODNESS OF FIT: will be asked to do what he’s already been doing. CONCERNS: none that I can see.

2c) – Quinn. Room for another TE certainly, only 3 on the roster (not including Branson). GOODNESS OF FIT: I expect this to be good, but we don’t know exactly how he’ll be used. Blockers are almost never bad fits so it’s hard to see how he wouldn’t be a good fit. BTW — Some of the criticism of this pick is ill-informed, despite purporting to be otherwise (you can see WalterFootball’s typical immature rants). Pettigrew was a 1st round pick. Why? Was it because he was a fast, pass catching TE? CONCERNS: none that I know of. Aside — religiosity is common in this class. I like that, but it’s not because I’m endorsing a religious belief. It tells me something about their values, and that they won’t turn into party animals (see various).

The second day of the draft is interesting for what they didn’t do. They didn’t draft a bunch of defensive players who might, and might not, ever become quality NFL players. No projects on the DL.

4a) – Bruton. Definitely room at Safety and even more on Special Teams. GOODNESS OF FIT: needs to learn his position. Niche logic is very apparent, can fill two spots. CONCERNS: not on character or physical metrics.

4b) – Olsen. Certainly room and need for backup interior OL. GOODNESS OF FIT: OK, we’ll see if he is a ZBer, but he’s versatile (niche logic again) and was part of a great OL. Love his attitude; very grounded and serious, an adult. Our scouting probably told a different story than other sources, which downplayed ZB appropriateness. CONCERNS: none. I love the fact that he can play OT. I was specifiably looking for backup interior OLs who could swing outside because our OT depth is poor.

5) – McKinley. Lot’s of room, especially if multiple sets are used. GOODNESS OF FIT: very good. Good route running ability, which we strongly prefer, and good speed. Lots of production, and in challenged circumstance that didn’t take advantage of his talents. CONCERNS: some injuries.

6) – Brandstater. No backup on roster, so definitely room. GOODNESS OF FIT: good, has maturity, smarts and physical skills, so he’s exactly the type of backup QB to groom.

7) – Schlueter. Room for a backup at OC. Numbers could become a problem but not really crowded. Lichtensteiger could wind up at OG. GOODNESS OF FIT; excellent. Experience, maturity, and a great 40 (~4.7) that might allow us to use him in creative ways, as Lick was used last year.

My point in this ‘yet another long post’ is that nobody we drafted should have a difficult time making our roster. The ground is fertile for their success. And unlike the normal ‘impact’ criteria, which emphasizes ability to contribute quickly, we have good situations for these draftees to come in and learn the position. Their chances are better because of this. All of the 2nd day picks have versatility that makes it easy to justify keeping them even if they aren’t “significant backups” initially.

The pattern of our draft shows that areas of this class that were deep were the areas that we drafted late. We took what was available rather than reaching for developmental prospects on the DL. Positions such as OL or WR were extraordinarily deep and I said so before the draft. That depth allowed us to find value in the later rounds.

The interesting story is really (IMO) in the UDFAs. We did a superb job of attracting the best UDFA crop and, even better, it contained a lion’s share of the 3-4 appropriate players. I can’t emphasize this enough.

Players such as Baker, Pedescleaux, DJ Johnson, Carter, and on and on, are really interesting talents who fit our needs beyond our wildest dreams. The goodness of fit and quality are amazing. There’s also an obvious attention to special teams ability.

There’s been a bizaare form of non-orange Koolaid being passed around that says everything McDaniels does is immature, foolish, etc., but I’m not the Koolaid drinking type, whether it be orange or anti-orange. The impression I keep getting is that McX are doing a remarkably good job. Their attention to detail is impressive. I’m not buying into the Koolaid stuff but every time I try to reverse engineer their work all kind of interesting stuff falls out. I’ve never seen this level of emphasis on team building out of a Bronco GM & HC.

by Colinski on May 20, 2009 2:29 PM MDT up reply actions   2 recs

These are the same things that I have noticed

If anyone was an egomaniac it would be Shanny or to some extent Cutler.

Our emphasis in this draft was on on-the-field production, so we didn’t try to project players at positions they hadn’t performed.

I noted this and it showed me positive hope for the future of our team.The impression I keep getting is that McX are doing a remarkably good job. Their attention to detail is impressive.

I had summarized this also.
I understand your point that the draft is NOT a science as the consensus thinks, because there are too many variables to filter to ensure success, but while I have taken this thought process to .0001 , you have gone to about
.0000000001 Thanks for the deep thinking, and taking the time to put into words what I had been seeing.

With the 12th pick, the Broncos select Knowshon Moreno - Roger Goodell
That'll move the chains - Andy Samberg

by KaptainKirk on May 20, 2009 3:51 PM MDT up reply actions  

fun with 'formal' problems

I probably should have broken much of this out into its own topic long ago, but this is a nice juncture to discuss draft strategy as a formal problem.

What I picked up on with Xanders and McDaniels was the influence of modern management techniques, such as statistical process controls (TQM) that would have been taught to them. Whether they studied it formally (Xanders could/should have as part of his MBA) or not, they still could have been exposed to these ideas, which are now ubiquitous in the management world.

Teams throughout the NFL have adopted many new ideas in recent years that came from outside the sport. And many of the younger managers have quite obviously been exposed to ideas of a more recent vintage in academia.

Football franchises aren’t any different than other areas of business, so it’s hardly surprising that the practices of the business world would eventually make there way into the NFL. It took some time for this development, and there are still some old timers whose education and practices harken to a different time, but novel ideas from the outside have made their way into the game — finally.

by Colinski on May 20, 2009 6:24 PM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

Thanks again

With the 12th pick, the Broncos select Knowshon Moreno - Roger Goodell
That'll move the chains - Andy Samberg

by KaptainKirk on May 20, 2009 6:33 PM MDT up reply actions  

when was the last time

we actually had a legiotimate GM/HC combo, where both were legitimate, proven talents, and neither answered to the other?

As time goes on, i think Broncos fans will enjoy breaking downt eh work of Xanders, though I suspect that for a time, he will reside behind the McX mask. The better to do his work….

There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.

by Jeremy Bolander on May 20, 2009 3:52 PM MDT up reply actions  

we didn't, ever

Football operations have always been underneath the HC, and the GMs have pretty much always answered to the HC. Beake was the best GM in recent times but he had some of his duties taken over by Shanahan’s guy.

The organizational story was part of the Broncos’ success story, when things went well, and part of their lack of success when it didn’t.

I’m still trying to figure out the interplay of these organizational dynamics, as they pertain to the historical functioning of the team.

Good LINK.

by Colinski on May 20, 2009 6:35 PM MDT up reply actions  

Actually, journalist value is not what I'm talking about

I’m talking purely generic “draft pick” value from draft value charts (which are based on historic market value for those picks). It is exactly as you said, we sacrificed “draft pick value” (uncertainty) for guys we perceived had “player value” (more certainty?).

Its the same thing as folks who pick invidual stocks vs. simply buying index funds. The assumption is that your skill at evaluation allows you to predict what individual stocks will succeed. McD/X’s draft strategy was basically to trade $20 of index value (draft pick value) for $18 of individual stock value (player value).

This requires the assumption that McD/X can “beat the market” in their player evaluation skills. I definitely don’t think this is out of the question, but it is what we’ll find out.

by cjfarls on May 22, 2009 8:49 AM MDT up reply actions  

late response

To reiterate; pick value is converted into an increase in probability of success. This is the horizontal line in my graphic explanation. Goodness of fit is the horizontal line and BPA rating is the vertical line. McX were indeed betting that players who they looked at up close (you can see my Who’s Working Out) and had thoroughly vetted and had previously produced at their position (wouldn’t have to learn a new position or be projected based on physical metrics) would have a higher rate of success.

Having more information allows a team to make calculations of players’ chances of success. And by using the player in ways that they’ve been used in the past, where they’ve gained experience so they’re further advanced just as veteran players are, the team is better able to calculate that the player has a chance of contributing at a high level.

Predicting market behavior is a whole different ball of wax! Interactive settings can produce non-deterministic results. The whole point of market speculation is, as you say, to “beat” the market. Speculators are trying to find “deals,” but a perfectly efficient market HAS NO DEALS! In other words, you pay for what you get. Price and value are the same in perfect markets. We’re not trying to beat the market, we’re trying to pay for what we get. We’re looking to reduce uncertainty rather than gamble that we’ll find overlooked bargains (e.g., Brandon Marshall, etc.).

We’re not trying to beat the market by taking on risks, such as taking “upside” players who have good and bad traits, or the other risks that I’ve mentioned, such as projecting them to new positions. We’re reducing the horizontal distance on the ‘goodness of fit’ line.

The vertical line is the BPA line. Taking players whose BPA rating has been inflated despite some flaws (say Jarron Gilbert) is a risk. Maybe you get a get a prize, like B Marshall. Maybe you don’t. You take a chance that they’ll develop because (often) of their amazing physical metrics. Maybe you make a horizontal reach and take someone who’s never played in your type of scheme. They rate higher vertically, too, and that’s why you take the chance that they’ll be able to learn a new scheme.

There’s a fundamental difference between being conservative, i.e., trying to conserve value, and being speculative or risk friendly, i.e., trying to gain value or “beat the market.” Risk friendly strategies court risk in the hope of gaining, but also at the risk of losing, in the belief that their superior knowledge will let them beat the averages. Conservative strategies avoid risk and attempt to build carefully by attending to fundamentals.

by Colinski on May 22, 2009 3:31 PM MDT up reply actions  

Exactly... a perfectly efficient market HAS NO DEALS

… and the NFL draft is absolutely NOT a perfectly efficient market.

However, history shows that pick # X in any given year is roughly equal to ~ “Y player value” given there are smart & stupid GMs, etc… this is the basis for the “draft value chart”… the actual value Y also is open to considerable dispute, but studies have shown it is roughly correct. It has gotten more complicated in recent years by adding the salary cap constraint, etc., and for that reason many think the version Dallas released years ago (and still used by the draft media guys) now over-values high-first round picks.

Consequently, while every team has rough agreement on the generalized “value” of a given pick, each team may have its own version of the draft value chart they take into any given draft based on the # of players they need, etc (e.g. if you think you only have room for 3-4 players to make the team, you may still favor a small number of high-round picks even if another team was willing to give you absurd “draft value” in multiple lower-round picks)..

Regardless of how you define this generalized value of a given pick, McD/X gave up some marginal amount of pure “draft value” to maximize the “player value” they added to the team based on their evaluation of the picks, including all the risk factors, etc. Their strategy was indeed one where they took the “draft value” they had, and maximized it by minimzing the risk of washouts, etc.

The fact that the market is not perfect is why McD/X’s strategy could indeed be a great one, if their player evaluation skills exceed the “draft value” they gave away in the trades (the amount of which has been highly overblown by MSM, by ignoring the time value discount on the Smith trade, and forgetting the 4th rnd pick on the Quinn trade).

You rightly point out the areas of risk McD/X eliminated by taking the players they chose…. the only problem is that you seem to assume that every other team in the NFL is not ALSO figuring those risk-factors into their draft evaluations. That is what determines the “market value” of any player… not anything stupid like what Kiper, etc. says.

Perhaps “beat the market” is the wrong term for what they were doing… because you’re right, for each individual player they took, they minimized risk within that selection. However, there is another way to minimize risk (besides player evaluation), which is to take MORE “draft value” (aka buy index funds), and simply recognize that some of it WILL wash out (just like some portion of the stocks in any given index will under perform the index as a whole).

Conservative/Aggressive draft strategies you seem to be talking about seems more akin to whether someone is buying small-cap stocks vs. large-cap… McD/X bought all “large-cap” players that have relatively less risk…. but each of the players is still part of the larger draft “market”.

EVERY TEAM is trying to beat the market in one way or the other, either by minimizing washouts (the McD/X strategy), maximizing gains (grabbing “high-risk/high reward” players), or some combination. If teams couldn’t “beat the market”, you would have a perfect cycle where teams won, then pulled back to the pack overtime, then won again over time because the “loser teams” are GIVEN more draft value every year through the pick order. The fact that good drafting teams like Baltimore, Philly, Pitt, Indy, SD and to a lessor extent Denver & NE stay good overtime is often because they are better able to convert “draft value” to “player value”.

by cjfarls on May 25, 2009 12:12 AM MDT up reply actions  

a few points, cjfarls

I worry about overconfidence, too, since it’s one of the most common cognitive biases. But let me point out a statistical assumption you’re making.

‘Good fits’ are NOT the instances where washout rates are high. They are the opposite, because you’re making a judgment that a player has skills that fit perfectly with the criteria your looking for.

Players such as Alphonso Smith and Richard Quinn prompted moves by Denver because McX were certain that they held high value and had a high probability of success. I’ve watched both and done the research on them and both appear to have little chance of failure. Smith has almost no flaws in his game, and blockers rarely lose their ability, so both these players are almost certain to make it. Our strategy was less risky than conservative, even though it’s bold by changing position in order to go after good fits.

Neither Smith nor Quinn were obtained at particularly high premiums. Quinn would have gone in the 3rd, and we paid about a 25/26th in the 2nd to obtain him. I trust the reports that Houston would have taken him at #77, so we prevented that loss. Smith was valued as a 1st rounder by many. We gave up an estimated pick at #12 for a player we ranked at #20, only 8 slots for the interest, so to speak.

I’m aware of the logic of the shotgun approach, but it’s actually still being employed through the class of UDFAs. Caponomic logic says that you need to minimize your risk level, and that’s exactly what we did with the draftees. And our later picks are very low risk, too. In fact, like last year, we could very easily keep the entire draft crop, or very close to that, because of the way we drafted. I make a point of predicting this now — before we’ve even gone to camp — so you can check me on it in 3 months.

Our UDFA crop contains the risk, so to speak, but we’re risking far less because we have less investment. And that’s why I expected the UDFAs might have some issues, as they did.

Shotgun approaches make more sense when BPA is your guiding criteria. We emphasized ‘goodness of fit’ more, even though we kept of reaches down (you should look at the numerical values on DrafTek to see this). Shotgun approaches are also more common when you make projections based on physical metrics. Also, converting a player to a new position makes a washout more likely. Washouts are also more likely when you employ wishful thinking, i.e., hope that you can simply teach their bad tendencies out of them. I think of the WRs here and the tendency to believe problems with poor ball skills, drops, etc, will go away if you emphasize fundamentals with them.

My impression is that the Broncos were very careful to conserve value rather price. In other words, they bought expensive tools rather than cheap tools.

by Colinski on May 20, 2009 1:48 AM MDT up reply actions  

no disagreements with this

I actually have nothing here I disagree with.

Both the McD/X method of maximinizing fit and minimizing risk, and the alternate value maximization approach are completely valid ways of conducting a draft, and the “ideal” probably very much will depend on the particular players in a draft and your evaluations of them. There is literally no way to tell whether the strategy taken was a good one until we actually see ssome results on the field for a few years (even 1 year won’t be enough unless the whole class washes out).

For that reason, I think that folks who completely blast the draft (in the MSM there seems to be a lot of these), and the folks who definitively say this was a great strategy (dominant here on MHR), are both being premature and/or overly simplistic in their analysis. There is literally no way to tell.

All we can say is “McD/X followed this strategy”… and wait to see if it was a good one.

I do think there is however value in some of the posts here an MHR that are impressed that you actually can SEE a strategy in place. If McD/X fail it will be a direct result of their actions… there is definitely no wishy-washiness in their decision making/strategies, and that I do think is a positive sign. The question is whether they have the skill/player evaluation talent to back up their clear vision and direction, and that is simply impossible to know at this point.

by cjfarls on May 22, 2009 9:04 AM MDT up reply actions  

You are right cj

But that is also the reason for my optimism.

With the 12th pick, the Broncos select Knowshon Moreno - Roger Goodell
That'll move the chains - Andy Samberg

by KaptainKirk on May 22, 2009 11:16 AM MDT up reply actions  

As my grandfather used to say...

you cannot save money on shoes that don’t fit!

Great post.

by SlowWhiteGuy on May 19, 2009 11:13 PM MDT up reply actions  

Your grandpa was a wise man!

"From the get-go, we targeted a certain type of player: tough, smart, competitive, versatile, a good person that loves football and wants to win." -Coach McDaniels

by Colorado_Kitten on May 20, 2009 7:54 AM MDT up reply actions  

Yes

but my girlfriend would ask why anyone would try to save money on shoes ;-)

by SlowWhiteGuy on May 21, 2009 12:36 AM MDT up reply actions  

Another great post, Bear!

I’m excited to see Smith suit up in orange and blue this year. I think he’ll make some highlight reels as nickel, and will most likely be called upon to start at some point this year. Think about it — who has ever had two 30+ corners start all 16 games in a season? Intelligence can overcome slight physical disadvantages (height and timed 40 speed).

by BroncosBassist on May 19, 2009 4:21 AM MDT reply actions  

Great Analysis

This “short” corner will be picking off balls for years to come!

by bodieiscool on May 19, 2009 8:39 AM MDT reply actions  

Will help the defnesive line

A good secondary will make that defensive line look that much better. In a game of split seconds, having those receivers covered a little longer will help those guys get to the quarterback.

by keeroc on May 19, 2009 10:35 AM MDT reply actions  

Awesome work Bear!

Really, really, really top notch, and rec’d.

Moreno is an easy pick to shine right away. But I think that Smith was our real steal of this draft. Thanks for giving this young man the coverage he deserves.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on May 19, 2009 1:43 PM MDT reply actions  

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