Horse Tracks 5/18/09
by Douglas A. Lee on May 18, 2009 5:19 AM MDT
in Horse Tracks
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CSG - The Gazette profiles Broncos TE Richard Quinn. Despite the experts' predictions (and Quinn's own expectations) to the contrary, several teams were interested in drafting Quinn early in the third round; so Denver would not have been able to draft him later. Another reminder; the Broncos did not trade two third-rounders for Quinn - they dealt two third-rounders for one second and one fourth.
KCS - Adam Teicher discusses the "Patriotization" of the AFC West (Denver and Kansas City), offering up quotes from Dolts' egomaniacal GM A.J. Smith and each of the division's coaches.
ESPN - For what it's worth (probably not much), Pork Chop heard the Broncos were interested in former Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell before the Draft.
CCN - Broncos QB Chris Simms will be appearing at the Mile High Football Camp in June, along with linebackers coach Don Martindale, who will be offering instruction.
SDUT - New DC Ron Rivera is expanding the Dolts' defensive playbook. Certainly bad news, as his defenses in Chicago were quite successful...
CCT - Monte Poole thinks Jokeland QB JaMarcus Russell carries himself like someone with nothing to prove, and needs to change his act.
LAT - The NFL's owners will discuss a possible rookie salary cap in their upcoming meetings.
SI - Peter King says the league is on the verge of a deal to bring the NFL Network to Comcast, in addition to new deals with CBS and FOX.
MST - Vikings DE Kenechi Udeze has overcome leukemia and is ready for mini-camp.
SI - In his Monday column, King thinks the turnover of the Colts' coaching staff won't be that big of a deal, in the end.
NFL - Steve Wyche looks at teams he thinks are right on the edge of making the playoffs or sucking, basically.
NFL - Pat Kirwan ranks Denver 27th in his early power rankings, saying the Broncos will need two years to complete their transition to a 3-4 defense.
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Good Monday nyc, Thanks for Horse Tracks...
Real Power, comes with the realization that One cannot change the Moment;
only ones perception of it: Atitude! JQM
It's like an NFL news aggregator with smarts and snark!
Great job as usual, nyc.
This is getting annoying — the linked Quinn article even says it — so, why does every story insist on regurgitating that nonsense about trading 2 third rounders for Quinn? It just isn’t true.
re: Quinn
Quinn was rated as a 3/4 casp and rising in the quality draftnik sites, so his eventual draft position was not unusual. The opinion that he was a late second day pick ran counter to what I was hearing, and we discussed him in some topics that I started (who’s working out?, who’s working out II).
Quinn was featured in a short segment on the NFL channel in which he was touted as a fast riser who many teams were considering as a first day pick.
To quote myself from Who’s working out? II.
It’s hard to form an opinion of blockers, as I say above. Looking at film helps but I don’t have time to look at everyone and the clips aren’t always representative.
Quinn has been featured on NFL channel and Mayock (and Casserly?) has recommended him. Production statistics often don’t tell us much, especially for a blocking TE.
After watching him on NFL and hearing his praises, I also think he’s a wonderful 6th round choice (if he lasts). I like a lot of the TEs in that range, and for different reasons. Oddly, it’s the blocking TEs that getting hard to find, and the good in-line blockers who can actually catch the ball, too, are a rare commodity.
I admit to being out of sync with many fans, I think blocking is good.
Unfortunately, the source of my list had pegged the prospects who Denver had been working out and had concluded that Quinn wouldn’t be drafted till the 6th, and my “if he lasts” comment was prescient. He was a wonderful choice for the 6th, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t a wonderful pick for before that, too. And it’s hardly a mystery why I liked him, as did Styg50.
I think recent discussion centering on how we will use our TEs has hit the mark. I expect we’ll be seeing an interesting offensive strategy this season employing the TEs as part of that strategy. I can’t predict what exactly, so I can’t say whether it’s the Magic 3 or what it will be, but the TE position will be important.
This is Too Far
Now I know you posted this well written comment but I think NYC and you are going too far. I have it on good authority, from several angry trolls that poster here earlier, that Quinn would have lasted to whenever Denver wanted to pick him. As would all our other draft picks. Finding any evidence to the contrary is just a waste of time.
Tis better not to throw it to the deep receiver but the open receiver.
Nice...if you can't trust a troll, then...
Honestly, have I just missed all of the evidence that has come out after the draft that makes our draft look worse instead of better or that has confirmed any of the knee-jerk criticisms of the moves on draft day (my criticism on draft day included, by the way). While not perfect (hardly a criticism), it seems that JM knew much more than he was given, and is given, credit for knowing.
draftnik hubris
Good one, Kfustud.
I’ve always found the ‘better’ sites to be useful, but I use them as a form of ‘meta-analysis’ or “hive mind” accumulation of information. I’m not pretending to be a scout even though I have a reasonably good eye for prospects, probably attributable to possessing good “bodily-kinesthetic” intelligence. Pardon all the jargon.
The level of overconfidence that some draftniks display is astounding. Not only does one have to be utterly confident that their kibitzing is correct, they’re making their assessments BEFORE the athletes have played. This last fact is extraordinary. A more common cognitive bias is 2nd guessing (hindsight bias), in which critics pretend that they knew all along who would succeed (they’re omniscient, even though they never display that omniscience beforehand). In this case, they don’t even wait for the results to come in, so their pronouncements of draft success/failure are ONLY a repetition of their original kibitz.
There would be some value to these draft grades if the 2nd guessers actually demonstrated prescience at some point, but accuracy in evaluating talent and projecting draft position isn’t their forte — usually. Their primary objective seems to be to scold. There’s a bit of schadenfreude to the unrelenting negativity.
BTW — my source for the information contained in Who’s Working Out — CUB, a Florida lawyer — accurately predicted both of our 1st round picks. He also makes a good living on the side playing fantasy football.
Why the Experts Stay Experts
This I believe explains why we are forced to live with the same experts year in and year out. They are very good at promoting the times they were right and erasing their mistakes.
Good living playing fantasy football eh. That’s impressive. I can never break into that upper tier, I can usually get in the top few spots but lack the ability to consistently go all the way.
Tis better not to throw it to the deep receiver but the open receiver.
You nailed it, 'Ski
Well done! It’s great that the Broncos have a 3 deep TE set now and each can block and catch. Scheffler did much better at blocking last year. Graham is good, all-everything. Quinn is a brilliant blocker who can offset Scheffler and his skills at route running and catching are supposed to be much better than his stats. It brings TE up a notch. Since we brought RB up a couple of notches and kept the O line (while stockpiling good eventual replacements/depth), we are in very good shape.
QB- Did anyone else notice that Simms has a much better QB rating than Cutler, throwing deep? Or that Orton’s 2 minute drill QB rating blows Cutler out of the water – 101.8 to 83.6? QB hasn’t lost much – if anything. The rest is much better. The Broncos will need time to learn the new offense, but they will be very tough
Hillis/Moreno in '09
TEs
All I can say is that I have a strong intuition that the TEs will play an important and interesting role in our offense this year. I always found the assumption that we would somehow abandon the TE position odd. Much of the psychological motivation came from cognitive dissonance over the perception that McDaniels was responsible “pushing out” a franchise QB.
The default setting for many erstwhile fans is that anything they can’t understand (at a low, transparent level) is ‘further proof’ of McDaniels’ errors.
I’ve written about the psychodynamics of attitude formation lately, so maybe I’ll post something here.
Kirwan on on the Broncos...
The conversion of the defense into a 3-4 package will take two years to complete, which makes things tough on the offense.
Tougher than it has been for the last two years? It’s not like they’re taking a step down. With this offense, all the Donx D has to do is upgade to bad from abyssmal, and the team will be competitive.
At least I give Kirwan
some credit. He isn’t saying we should all shoot our coach and that it is hopeless like so many “experts.” I think two years is fair to expect before the new coach gets what he is really after although I am not sure about Kirwan’s logic in reaching that conclusion.
Tis better not to throw it to the deep receiver but the open receiver.
Thanks for the Links
The article on Quinn was great until the last paragraph when they perpetuated the myth that we traded two 3rd rounders for the last pick in the 2nd. NO!
We traded to third rounders and moved up and back. 2 picks for 2! Why is this so hard for people to understand?
Tis better not to throw it to the deep receiver but the open receiver.
Kirwan's A Fool...
“It seems like overnight this franchise fell apart with the loss of long-time coach Mike Shanahan. The Broncos also let Jay Cutler go and many veteran players have moved on as well. The conversion of the defense into a 3-4 package will take two years to complete, which makes things tough on the offense. Time will tell if the players can move on from the departure of Cutler, and the pressure on young coach Josh McDaniels could be brutal if the fans and media turn on him.”
We didn’t “lose” Mike Shanahan or “let go” of Jay Cutler, we fired the former because he had gotten stake (24-24 over the last three season and absolutely no progress to show for it) and traded the later (just because it was what he wanted, doesn’t mean wasn’t good for us). Implementing the 3-4 perfectly may take some time, but our defense was already as bad as could be last year and we were still a .500 team. Moreover, two other teams that won 10 games combined and are also switching over to the 3-4 are ranked in the middle of the pack while we are firth from the bottom. Oh, and someone needs to tell him that our players had moved on from Cutler since before he was officially traded. I suspect that most of them didn’t appreciate his part in that whole mess to begin with. And what’s this about “if” the media turns on McD? Heck, the MSM’s vitriol is the only reason why most fans haven’t gotten behind him sooner. I can’t wait to see their writing a few weeks into the season…
"The mystic chords of fandom, stretching from every trade and signing to every active account and guest all over this broadband, will yet swell the chorus of union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature". ~ Abraham Lincoln-ish
"The tree of victory must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of quarterbacks and coaches". ~ Thomas Jefferson-ish
Can anyone find...
Power Ranking from preseason 2008 from Kirwan? I cannot, but I would like to see how he did.
NFL.com "We Love the Packers"
All the makings of a drastic improvement seem to be in place in Green Bay. The Packers upgraded their defensive personnel with draft picks B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews and the return of defensive end Cullen Jenkins. The move to a 3-4 scheme shouldn’t take long to figure out.Kirwan Says TWO YEARS for Denver to Figure out the new 3-4 defense, Wyche apparently believes that because of Raji & Matthews (Totally untested rookies) that the Packers will have the 3-4 figured out just short of immediately.
ONE MAN"S OPINION – On the way back from the OUTHOUSE!!
To accomplish great things, we must not only act, but also DREAM; not only plan, but also BELIEVE.
I agree with Wyche
The Packers were a much better team than the Broncos were in 2008, despite their poor record. I don’t want to give it all away now, but I have an upcoming article which will explain why. I’ve cited this many times already, but Green Bay lost 7 games by 4 points or fewer in 2008. That is a competitive team; one which doesn’t have that far of a climb to the playoffs. Denver’s closest losses were each by a touchdown (Buffalo and Jacksonville). Close wins against the Browns, Chargers, Saints, Bucs and Falcons all made the Broncos appear (by their record) as better than they were.
by Douglas A. Lee on May 18, 2009 11:13 AM MDT up reply actions
agreed
The Packers underachieved so regression to the mean should bring them higher.
However, even though their current level of defensive talent helps them, there’s a bit of special pleading in projecting a shorter transition to the 3-4 for GB than Denver.
I tend to think that a team experiencing a major defensive overhaul can make gains more quickly, particularly when they’re mediocre to start. Again, it’s partly regression to the mean, since even an average defensive performance is a great improvement. Whereas, in GB’s case, much of the defensive changes come at the expense of what had previously been a strength for the Packers (but not last year, so much).
The 3-4 two year transition period is often cited but it’s a slightly different idea. It simply takes a while to find enough 3-4 types to stock a defense. There’s support for that idea here (we were unsuccessful in being able to draft Tyson Jackson or B. J. Raji), but we had a head start in looking for 3-4 types because of the coaching change, and many of them were already here. This last point is very important, since the transition wasn’t as big for us personnel-wise, and there was no institutional resistance to the idea of change. We’re still short on personnel but there’s fertile ground for the players to ‘buy into’ the change.
I can live with the rest
But putting St. Louis ahead of the Broncos? C’mon – that’s just insane
Hillis/Moreno in '09
lack of returning veterans?
If anyone believed that Denver needed to return its veteran defensive players, Shanahan would still be the coach.
Significantly improved talent at every area of the defense coupled with good coaching and a sound scheme should yield immediate results this year! Perhaps it will take a couple of years to see the full potential of talent in the system working with eact other, but we will be sginficantly imprved this year.
"Now we have them where we want them"
-Kieth Bishop - On the Denver 2 yard line, Cleveland Ohio, 1987
GOOD
Morning everyone. You can sure tell that it’s Monday. Thanks NYC!
With the 12th pick, the Broncos select Knowshon Moreno - Roger Goodell
That'll move the chains - Andy Samberg
Mike Florio from Sporting News
Has “Six Teams that Could be Home Again for the Playoffs” and has the Broncos at #2:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=sixnflteamsthatcouldbeho&prov=tsn&type=lgns
With the 12th pick, the Broncos select Knowshon Moreno - Roger Goodell
That'll move the chains - Andy Samberg
Ya
That article lost me the minute he said “They are much worse…”
Might as well tune him off. Although you can argue Cutler is a big loss there is no way, in any rational sense, that you can say that the team as a whole hasn’t improved talent wise.
Tis better not to throw it to the deep receiver but the open receiver.
What?
So basically he’s saying even though Jay is a square peg, he has to fit into a round hole because he is a “franchise” quaterback.
Weeks after the fact, the decision to trade quarterback Jay Cutler(notes) remains vexing. Regardless of whether coach Josh McDaniels decided he preferred Matt Cassel(notes) or whether McDaniels simply didn’t want Cutler or whether Cutler simply didn’t want McDaniels, a team should not be giving up a young franchise quarterback for any amount of draft picks or players.
Doesn’t Orton play on offense?
So now the job falls to Kyle Orton(notes), who couldn’t do much of anything on a Bears team that had an excellent defense. He’ll likely have an even harder time on a team with a mediocre defense."
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for to many men on the field?" - Jim Bouton
he couldnt do anything
but go 10-5 his 2nd(rookie even?) year. While cutler went 7-9 with far superior talent around him
HILLIS
Let's see:
A 101.8 two minute drill, a red zone stat line that includes a 22 point improvement at QB rating, 2x the sacks but nearly 1/3 the INTs and better numbers for completions, YTA and TDs, plus a much better winning record and Orton’s done ‘nothing?’ Hey, if we had that from Jay we would have made the playoffs last year. This is typical nonsense. Do the research, guys. Sheesh
Hillis/Moreno in '09
Quinn article is interesting
especially the bit about the Texans for sure going to take him in the 3rd. I’m not sure I take it as gospel coming from an agent, but there appears to have been more interest than I thought. Makes me feel better, I suppose. We’ll see when this kid hits the field though.
I can assure you
… that the interest level on Quinn was much higher than reported. We, Styg50 and I, were writing about him here. About the only complaint that could be made is that we accepted CUB’s projection of him as a 6th rounder (I thought of removing CUB’s projections but left them in). My point in posting Who’s Working Out was to show who we’d been working out, rather project their draft position.
I conducted a survey of the quality draftnik sites and Quinn’s consensus position was as a late 3rd rounder. And, as I noted, he was a ‘riser’ at the time of the draft (on Cooney’s Draft Scout, which is good at identifying trends). Mayock or Casserly did a short segment on him on the NFL channel, which identified him as a sleeper who many teams were viewing as a 1st day pick. Scott Wright’s Draft Countdown, which I find to be the most useful site, had him as the #93 BPA (late 3rd), so I don’t know how people decided he would be available later on. The indications were that there was a good chance he would be gone by the next pick. Moreover, the terms for his trade weren’t that bad, so complaints about the terms seem to be yet another opportune nag. If only this persistent nagging was well-informed.
I never sweat what national columnists say
Especially ones on the East Coast … in this day of blogs like this one you’ll inevitably get better and more informed commentary from bloggers and local beat writers than anything from Sporting News, ESPN … those guys do not have the sources or the ability to follow 32 teams to the depth they would like you to think they can.
So really, pay Sporting News no mind. I can guarantee you Mike Florio knows less about the Denver Broncos than anyone on this site.
I agree Xteve
I was just bringing the article to the attention of everyone, so this could be known. I don’t think Florios’ opinion matters to anyone here, but it is nice to be able to identify ones enemies(MSM)
With the 12th pick, the Broncos select Knowshon Moreno - Roger Goodell
That'll move the chains - Andy Samberg
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