Lack of a running game

I accidentally put this up doubled, but I think I fixed it (hopefully).

and the addition of Moreno and hope for a less injury-plagued offensive backfield are the fuel to my hopes for an offensive improvement—well, that and better play calling. I also share your personal prediction that both Jay and Josh may enjoy success, though I have to say, I do have this little voice whispering to me that Jay Cutler is somehow going to find a way to implode or fail to reach his potential. When he was our guy, It was a relatively minor suite of nagging concerns in the back of my brain: the fourth-quarter mistakes, the locking on his primary receiver, the discomfort with which he wears the mantle of leadership, the fact that he just sometimes didn’t seem to want to win badly enough, even his diabetes. Now that he’s not a Bronco, I can turn up the volume on that little voice.
It would be nice to be able to honestly say that I hope Jay succeeds, but as the season creeps closer I find myself increasingly hoping that he fails—if only to prove that McDaniels’ instinct may have been a good one, and that the intuition I’ve always had that Jay might not measure up to his mad skills was too…

I don’t wish serious injury on Jay, but some suffering to bring him realization that he was wrong would help ease the betrayal I feel he has given the whole State of Colorado. Maybe a 65 sack season would appease my Orange bloodedness. Braa Ha Ha!

but noone likely cares. it’s still jay-bashing season at mhr. you’d be better off posting why you think orton is better, all is cured, and just hop on the hate bus. the blame for our lack of more wins the past 2 seasons is squarely on cutler here, and to a much lesser degree, shanahan.

historic defenses, st’s, worst field-position in the league, injuries, bad coaching, bad play-calling, … it was all jay. the rb’s? an excuse. it appears you might be new here. if so, welcome. keep up the good work, you make excellent points, in my opinion. the running game may save us, yet. here’s to good health! and thanks again for the refreshing analysis.

power-running, baby. ya need it

His field generalship was less than admiralable, often times trying to thread a pass into coverage. His off the field (during a game) leadership was awful, just pathetic. He would make a mistake and then go sit by himself and pout, when he should have rallied the defense to get him back on the field to make good for the mistake. His locker room leadership was poor (read some of the articles of the players who played with him), not taking the lead with the team.

I don’t blame the whole failure on him, Bates and Shannahan must share the burden, but if you are a QB and you do not lead your offense then you are a failure, bottom line. No if’s, ands, or butts about it. jay cutler isn’t going to make himself any better in Chicago and probably will be worse. You can say what you want about the firing of Bates as the ultimate reason for the riff, but I’ll bet any amount of money it had to do with his behavior (play).

This new Head Coach IS NOT going to put up with any of that BEHAVIOR. That’s why jay is gone, and I’ll tell all, I’m not one bit sorry and I feel we have the better QB…13-3 Baby!!!

I like this post, and rec’d it. however, it postulates a scenario that may not hold up: i.e., that either Jay was responsible for the listed faults or the running game was. The third option – that it was coaching – was mentioned in the comments. Given J. Bates’ predilections, that is also on anyone’s list. I also have to notice something – there are a lot of opinions flying here, my friends, but no one is citing statistics nor analysis to support them, and that isn’t MHR level.

Back in school, long ago, there was often an additional option – d. all of the above. In this case, I think that is the reality. Jay’s third down performance was a miserable 72.3 QB rating. His greatest weakness was that on third down he threw an INT percentage of 7.69%. His red zone numbers I’ve cited often and they were terrible. I can’t lay that at anyone else’s door. So, yes, Cutler was at fault for a lot of it.

The issue of running on third down – I haven’t had time to dig up that stat. However, for rushing 1st downs we were14th in the league – average, but nothing more. For rushing TDs we were 15th. Stuffs per carry, 19th. Total number stuffed – a number that you want to rank low on: 32, for 24th in the league, which is very good. Our gross ypc is also very good at 4.8. But here’s where we were excellent – 1st downs per carry, 2nd in the league at 26.6

So, you see, we were actually middle of the pack on TDs, even though we tended to the pass in red zone situations. We got great yards per carry. Our rushing game was underutilized, perhaps due to a perception that it wasn’t as strong, but I can’t prove that perception statistically. We were 2nd in the league for 1st downs per carry, and our ypc was 4.8 which is incredibly good. What I’m finding is this:

1. Yes, Cutler was very weak on 3rd down and in red zone situations. That’s not piling on, just reading the numbers.
2. Our ability to produce 1st downs by rushing, over the course of the season and despite the revolving door created by injuries, was top of the line. When we ran, we ran well. Sure, a lot of that was an incredible line. But that’s part of the rushing game, and we were very good. Much better than most people thought, including a lot of members. Keep in mind, though, that some of the time we were scraping the bottom of the roster and that did matter, late in the season.
3. The coaching in terms of play calling was bizarre.

I agree with many of your thoughts, and, as always, you have backed up your comments with some excellent statistical analysis. I, too, agree that our running game was underutilized by the coaching staff and that our unbalanced offense may be largely blamed on the coaching. I also agree that there is not an either/or situation for the blame (as in it is either Cutler or the running game) but probably a combination of the two that led to an unsuccessful offensive attack.

However, statistics may be viewed through many lenses. Yes, Cutler’s statistics on 3rd down and in the red zone are quite weak. However, these statistics did not arrive in a vacuum. These statistics were derived from Cutler’s passes made against defenses that were not afraid of the run threat and therefore prepared for the pass. Much as a QB throwing against a college defense will have better statistics then the same QB throwing against NFL defenses, so too will the same QB succeed or struggle (although not as dramatically) based on the advantages of the D facing that QB (i.e. whether the QB has good receivers, a good line, and the threat of a running attack).

Although the statistics for our running attack are not terrible (although by Denver standards they are hardly acceptable), having gone and rewatched the majority of our season on NFL Rewind, it is hard to make the case that defenses were honestly afraid of our running game. After the first few games, in which they still honored the tradition of excellence in the running game, defenses knew where the ball was going, and were thus prepared.

Again, this is subjective analysis without statistical backing; however at a certain point one must trust one’s eyes. And it is hard to watch the games and argue that the running game in Denver last year was anywhere near the threat it was in years past. Especially when the brief time that Hillis brought credibility to our running attack only gave further evidence, by contrast, of the poor quality of our other RBs.

Further evidence of this lack of quality in our RB corps comes in our run/pass splits, as well as the fact that Mcdaniels clearly made revamping the RBs a major priority in the offseason.

I’ve also bought into NFL Rewind and would recommend it to anyone. Your points are well taken – again, a lot of this is laid at the feet of the coaches. Still, I’d say let’s keep some things in mind:

1. Sure, no one ‘feared’ our running game. We did have Pittman and Hillis for most of the season, though. It wasn’t until the last quarter of the season that we had essentially nothing in the power department (and still gained excellent yardage running).
2. Cutler had the authority to audible, and a lot of this leaves that fact off. If they weren’t expecting a run, Bates (first) and Cutler had the option of running.
3. Cutler loves living on the edge. He has great accuracy and believes that he can make any throw. He threw a lot of passes that he didn’t have to and shouldn’t have. Please look at that INT rate on third down. That’s no one’s fault but the guy throwing the ball. Audible, throw to the outlet (Please!), throw it away.
4. As far as changing personnel – you bet. I was never thrilled with our people overall, and I’m glad for the change. Again – that’s really a coaching decision, Mike S and J Bates (pardon me) cooperatively dropped the ball.

I think that we agree more than perhaps you might think.

“These statistics were derived from Cutler’s passes made against defenses that were not afraid of the run threat and therefore prepared for the pass”

Of course – coaching again. But seriously – the issues of coaching are agreed, yet we have to consider that Cutler’s tendencies to force (and I have to admit – I don’t buy the argument some make of him feeling pressured to win all the time at all – he just likes those decisions), to refuse to do checkdowns and to lock on all contributed to an INT rate on third down that was awful and very telling about his decision-making.

To me this isn’t about years past – it’s just about last year. I’m glad that we now have better (or so I believe) players and I’m deeply grateful for the coaching change. I belive that McDaniels will be a huge improvement over Bates.

The ability to avoid stuffs goes to the combination of a better scheme (God Bless Bobby Turner) than what was used and much, much better O line play. That last goes to the future, which, oddly, is what I started out to talk about! My apologies for hijacking my own comment. At any rate, with Moreno and the other options, a decent scheme and good health on the O line, our ability to run should be vastly improved.