the wet blanket
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on May 31, 2009 8:28 PM MDT
97 comments
When I was in college, I used to work at Ball Aerospace in Boulder as a janitor so I could eat more than ramen. The engineers there used to keep signs on their cubicles that read, "Screw reality; Think positive."
I always thought that was an interesting perspective and I could never tell tell if they were being ironic.
I believe that many of MHR's denizens tend toward optimism - at least as far as the Broncos are concerned.
Normally, I'm a positive person. But I worry about the upcoming Bronco season. Not about the offense. But about the defense, specifically the front seven.
Consider the group that I'm projecting as the starters (granted, it's May):
NT: Ron Fields - Couldn't start for the 49ers last season.
DE: Ryan McBean - Played in one game for the Steelers last season. Spent 3/4 of the season on the Steelers' practice squad. Having said that, I kind of like McBean. But we can't expect miracles, right? Last time I checked, the Steelers weren't too shabby at evaluating talent.
DE: Kenny Peterson - Folks here seem excited about this kid. I'm not sure why. I watched every Broncos game last season and can't remember him making a single play. But my memory isn't what it used to be. Is it fair to say, he's no Richard Seymour?
OLB: Elvis Dumervil - Converting from 4-3 DE. Learning a new position.
MLB: DJ Williams - Learning his fourth position in 6 seasons.
MLB: Andra Davis - The Browns were comfortable letting him leave in free agency.
OLB: Robert Ayers - A rookie.
Tons of question marks. And I know I took the most negative perspective on each of these players. I didn't do it to tick anyone off, but I just hadn't seen anyone else point out that most of these players are unproven.
Originally, I intended this to be a comment on the schedule post, but my fingers got loose, so I decided to start a new one.
I know we have no choice but to trust that Mr. Bowlen made the right choice in firing Shanahan, hiring McDaniels and then firing the Goodmans. Now we have to trust that McDaniels is making the right choices.
And I'm happy to do it. I thought it was time for a change and have been thus far impressed by Coach McDaniels. But Rome wasn't built in a day.
Given my concerns about the front seven, this is the way I forecast the upcoming season's results:
@ Bengals - W - (1-0)
Browns - W - (2-0)
@ Raiders - L - (2-1)
Cowboys - W - (3-1)
Patriots - L (3-2)
@ Chargers - L - (3-3)
@ Ravens - L - (3-4)
Steelers - L - (3-5)
@ Redskins - W - (4-5)
Chargers - W - (5-5)
Giants - L - (5-6)
@ Chiefs - W - (6-6)
@ Colts - L - (6-7)
Raiders - W - (7-7)
@ Eagles - L - (7-8)
Chiefs - W -(8-8)
I guess I don't believe that the Giants, Colts and Ravens are going to fade as much as some here do. And I'd feel more confident about the Bengals and Redskins games if they were at home.
Wow, this schedule presents several challenges.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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Yes, many in the front 7 are unproven
That’s the bad news.
The good news is that, as a whole, they are larger. Thomas is entering the year where you hope it all clicks for him. Fields was hand picked by Nolan and Mike Lombardi called him the “perfect player” for a 3-4 team. Peterson, Powell, McBean … no more guys at 275.
DJ will be playing in a scheme that allows him to fly to the ball. Davis, Woodyard — solid tacklers and maintain their gaps. Strong tackling corners and solid safeties upgrade the defense before the team even hits the field.
I keep arguing (well, over at the DP, where one doesn’t argue so much as withstand a barrage of accusations in what may or may not be English) that the d-line, just by virtue of the size upgrade, will be better — and I think the line coach will be a real help to guys who are ready to take that next step. The concern (for me) is OLB.
But as SWG pointed out, we have remarkable versatility at that position, and plenty of competition. I would feel more comfortable if we had at least one other true OLB, but we do have a slew of guys who fit that hybrid mold many teams are now drafting for — and these players have experience in the league and may have been heretofore misused by the Broncos. Then there’s always the chance somebody like Robinson sticks.
A heavier d-line and a better secondary — plus upgrades at linebacker (at least in terms of gap discipline) — are reason enough to believe that the defense has improved.
Anything and everything else — if, for instance, Thomas or Peterson has a breakout season, Dumervil, Moss, Reid, or Ayers show they can move well in coverage, Fields shows the promise he showed on the special film evaluations for line play San Fran put their players through — is gravy.
Heavier and still athletic
I agree with you Jeff.
The whole front 7 is about 20 LBs heavier on average. One of the great weaknesses of the Broncos in the last decade has been a light defense. The benefit was speed. However, the big power running backs had their way with the old Broncos, especially in the 4th, where the big runs come from missed tackles. The benefits of speed disappear when the other team pounds the ball straight down field.
This new 7 is just as athletic, but more suited to stop the run.
But Jeff is right, there’s going to be doubt about this unit until they prove there’s improvement when it counts, in games. I’m looking forward to the preseason to get some live data.
by MichaelCushman on May 31, 2009 9:29 PM MDT up reply actions
Agent Jerry
I can live with your forecast, and although I think we swap the oakland and dallas games, we could very well have what I would consider to be a letdown, if we lose to the faders in either game. Jeff , I like your quote:
I keep arguing (well, over at the DP, where one doesn’t argue so much as withstand a barrage of accusations in what may or may not be English)
The Yahoo sites are just as bad and I regret even scrolling down to them when I read anything there.
With the 12th pick, the Broncos select Knowshon Moreno - Roger Goodell
That'll move the chains - Andy Samberg
Not a wet blanket.
Good post. I am guilty as charged for being more optimistic than some (and maybe more than is justified). Still, I am very, very encouraged by the interviews and news I have seen recently from the front 7. I think they sound rather promising as an underrated and (hopefully) solidly-middle-of-the-pack group. The comments on the scheme and Nolan very positive and smack of sincerity.
With regard to our ILBs, I (like HT and others) am extremely excited about where they are likely to be placed. I think they might excel there. I’d love to see someone comment on Peterson (or Thomas). I’ve seen some positive comments, but don’t feel qualified to say a lot. My gut says Ron Fields is a bada$$, but I can’t back that up a ton either. The OLB questions seem legit. Time will tell, but I think there is cause for hope with our front 7…
And, fwiw, a solid (read: not wildly lucky) 8-8 would a good outcome for this year, imho.
Thanks and rec’d. Appreciate the thoughtful perspective.
thanks for being receptive
I’m encouraged as well. So far, so good. The players seem enthusiastic. It appears they’ve bought in to what the coaches are telling them.
I wish I knew what was being said by the team at this time last year. I really can’t remember.
I do remember that several summers ago, Darius Watts was being discussed amongst the game’s all-time great receivers. Okay, I exaggerate. But remember how everyone was amazed by his capacity to get open. Just think, if he only had feeling in his hands, he’d probably be a perenial Pro Bowler. If…
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 1, 2009 9:30 AM MDT up reply actions
Your suffocating under that 'wet blanket'
and you really need to come out for fresh air. If you think this present defense will be as good (BAD) as the last one then no more can be said or done to persuade you. Slowik is not even considered to be in the bottom of the can, so to speak, he is beneath the can trying to scratch his way inside.
Mike Nolan is one of the best defensive coaches around and the new defensive system he will install fits the players more than what they were used to playing. There is no doubt that we have the talent, they were mishandled by the previous regime. If the defense is better than they were last year and with our offense projected to be even better (at least at scoring) then we should be no less than 13-3 Baby!!!
bfree to drink the Kool Aid!
I love your appraisal. I still think there are too many variables to speculate accurately, but it’s sure fun trying!
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
Jerry, Jerry
While your analysis is thoughtful and considered, I disagree. The defense certainly needs to prove that they are considerably better, but you’ve not factored in the remarkable upgrade (at least on paper) of the special teams with dynamic and committed playmakers. Field position makes defensive scheming and success much different in games and I really believe superior coaching is going to maximize talent and minimize deficiencies in these players. I guess the proof will be after 7-8 games when we’ll have a better idea of our team. I think your assessment is too pessimistic, but it is a challenging schedule based on last year’s roster which may not apply at all this year as we’ve seen. Still given the variables, we could see a team with three or more wins or losses this year than in 2008. 13-3 is still dependent on drinking the Kool-aid.
I agree with the special teams deal, but we're still going to have some problems.
This is a team who finished close to last in defense, lost their rocket arm QB(even though that was probably a step in the right direction), have a new type of offense and defense, a new coach, and a troubled WR who could be out for a few weeks. You can say all you want about the improved defense and special teams, but this team has a long way to go before they are SB caliber. Learning a new system isn’t all that easy. I hate to be pessimistic, but that is what I see when I look at this team. I do see bright spots as well, but we can’t avoid the negatives this team has. I see this Denver Broncos team going 8-8, or around that. If we get lucky, SD will not have improved much and we might make it into the play-offs. Although this team may not be SB caliber, I can see them in the play-offs in a few years.
"When you put on that jersey, the name on the front is more important than the name on the back." - "Miracle".
"Winning means you're willing to go longer, work harder, and give more than anyone else." - Vince Lombardi.
thinking. . .thinking
I agree, I think. I don’t see this next year being a very good year for us. Offensively, I’m guessing we will be top third. Defensively, I hope middle third. Special teams, top third. But with our schedule, I’m not sure that will be enough. New England, Pittsburgh, NFC east, Baltimore, Indy will all be tough teams to match up against. I’m not worried about our offense, but I am terrified about our defense. Good post!
To offer up an opposing argument D-fence:
Although the schedule will be brutal, I tend to think people give the NFC East entirely too much credit. Yes, all of those teams were good last year. That was last year. Yes, some teams have upgraded (Haynesworth, I’m lookin at you). However, all of those teams have given up key players (Hey, I don’t like TO either, but he was a big part of Dallas’ minor success).
While I’m not holding out too much faith in our team to go better than 8-8, I believe they have caught fire with McDaniels and his coaching. If they can keep that positive attitude, they will do a lot better. The days have passed when we can go out and beat the tar out of the playoff caliber Jets, and then lose our ass to the sorry Chiefs and Raiders right afterward. The days of not preparing for the weaker teams are over. The times of having the same game plan for every game are over.
I’m not seeing things through my orange colored sunglasses here, I’m being logical about it. No, we haven’t seen what McDaniels can do as a head coach, but he’s been in the job for almost 6 months now, and the players are pumped to play already. It’s only JUNE!
Is it too early to guarantee we’ll do well? Absolutely.
But it’s never too early to believe we can beat the crap out of any team we play.
The teams of 2009 will almost be nothing like they were in 2008. There’s too many things that have changed in 6 months to think that anymore. Great post, and great discussion everyone. Rec’d
"It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you dont win" -Brandon Marshall
by Joe Medina on Jun 1, 2009 2:23 AM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
Fair points, and rec'd!
Your points are valid. I’m neither an optimist (I think our shedule is very rough) nor a pessimist (I like our player mix much better this season).
My thoughts…
Your comments are confined to the front 7 of the defense. I think our offense is in good hands, and our defensive secondary is legendary at this point (with arguably the best CB and best FS in NFL history, as well as one of the top interception rookie CBs in college history). So let’s stick with the front 7.
Ayers – rookie? Yes. Also at the top of most draft boards.
Davis – Fits a role in Denver better than in Cleveland (as either a Ted Blocker or a run stopper amongst other LBs focused on speed).
Williams – Has never faltered learning those positions each year. In fact, according to Williams himself, this is the position he wants anyway. It is also (as I’ve been harping on for a few months) the position I wanted him to end up in if we were going 3-4. It gives him a chance to grow into a Lewis-like LB.
McBean – We agree. Of course, I’m not so sure he’ll start either.
Fields – Nolan saw something he wanted in the guy, or he wouldn’t have wanted to bring him along.
Doom – I agree, to the extent that I just don’t see a guy with his reach covering a TE or stopping the run. Then again, I’m not from the hybrid player school of thought, so my opinion probably isn’t fair. If he is used as a pass rushing OLB (as in the 5-2 program), I think he could continue to excel.
Peterson – I’m not sure that I’m all that excited about him either as a 3-4 DE. I’m also not sure he’ll get the start.
All in all, I think our record this year will be close to what you predict. On the other hand, I’m not focused on the record this year. I want the players to play better as a team this year, and I want the coach to get his feet wet as a new HC. As long as we play well (regardless of record), I’ll be excited for 2010. I think we are moving in the right direction.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jun 1, 2009 2:40 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Dumervil's reach
Thank you for the kind words.
I’ve seen you comment about Dumervil’s reach elsewhere as well and I’m confused. I thought that Dumervil had long arms for someone his stature. And those long arms helped him overcome his lack of height to become a better pass rusher. Maybe I’m wrong. But wouldn’t long arms help in coverage and in shedding run blocks?
I’ve never played the position so I honestly don’t know.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 1, 2009 9:11 AM MDT up reply actions
My mistake.
I always get messed up when talking about Doom. He’s a little guy with long arms (I almost get a picture of a guy with dragging knuckles). His reach is his strength, not his height (as you correctly point out). You are also correct that he uses that reach when he plays at DE (shed blockers / protects his space from runs).
But I don’t see this translating to the OLB spot. Reach is great (for a DB) because (presumably) you have the speed and the experience shadowing receivers. Smith, for example, doesn’t have ideal height, but his speed and experience has demonstrated that he can cover. With a life of playing at DE, plus the short legs, I don’t know that Doom will have the opportunity to use those arms. WIth reach and a low center of gravity, I love the man as a pass rusher. He might turn out to be good at shadowing a TE, but I haven’t seen it yet. (By the way, if he rushes the edge at ROLB, none of this has to be a major factor).
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jun 1, 2009 11:17 AM MDT up reply actions
Is it too early to say we will fail? Absolutely
I respect just about everyones perspectives and opinions here. This is my perspective and opinion.
I have 2 keys on my BRONCOS keychain. Here they are:
1) The NFL – Every year, 32 teams start undefeated and winless, and a myriad of circumstances happen to play out over the course of the NFL season. The team that won 1 game last year goes on to win their division, or the team whose coach QUITS on them, ends up in the playoffs. We never know which teams will be great or lousy. I believe the 2009 schedule for our team looks like 16 opponents, not brutal, not easy. We won’t know until the clock expires.
2) Coaching – I’ll just say this; 3rd and 5, CB’s 10 yds off of WR’s. My fellow Broncos fans, WE ALL can convert that!
The D-line – Coach Nunnely.
LB Corp – Coach Martindale.
DBs – Coach Donatell.
DC – Coach Nolan.
Do your research, and show us where our weaknesses are. I’ll be here, believing our 2009 Broncos got as much a chance to win it all as the other 31 teams.
Those are my keys. GO BRONCOS!!
No inspirational quote here, just this...GO BRONCOS!!!
Nice thoughts.
I tend to agree with the “foresight is blind” idea. 16 opponents. And McD seems to focus on beating each one in a unique way. Here’s to Josh knowing what he’s doing!
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
If nothing else...
The nice little thing I keep thinking about is this:
If we do perform lousy and go 6-10 or 8-8 this year, the MSM won’t be able to argue that McDaniels probably just had a rough first year as a HC. Luckily, he knows what he’s doing though.
"It means nothing to throw for 4500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and you dont win" -Brandon Marshall
Great post!
This is exactly what I wanna see. The alternative side. I think we do sound a little rosy sometimes. I know I do. I especially like what you are pointing out about the front 7. If 6 of the front 7 are the same as last year (a conclusion that sounds possible), then what difference can really be expected. I like what you said and I wanna try and capture my thoughts on this in a post. Please give me some feedback when I do.
SCHEME, man, scheme!
If we put these people in the right places, with the right mix and the right playbook, the same guys could perform very differently. It’s like building a house: If you put up the roof before the walls or foundation, it won’t work. But, if you use the same components in the RIGHT order, the result is a strong structure.
I’m not trying to sound overly rosy. I’m just saying that the same personnel is not the sole indicator of the same results. Just as there’s no support for an overly rosy outlook, there’s just as little support for a dim prognosis, either.
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
Entitled to your opinion...
But do you REALLY see this team as not being improved?
Name the upgrades that will help turn Oakland and Kansas around. Of all the AFC West teams, Denver has improved the most, and in the best ways when looking at coaching and players.
San Diego will be tough, but they have not taken a quantum leap away from denver.
The schedule? Thats all it is….a schedule.
The Colts, Ravens, Cowboys and Redskins will struggle BIG TIME this year based on coaching turnover and player acquisition.
The giants are just BLAH and will miss Burress big time.
We traditionally play the Steelers tough, and Philly could be a coin toss…..I have said this all the time….we could be anything from 6-10 to 12-4/13-3.
I can only listen to the team, and they are talking of great team chemistry, excitement and single minded focus.
Our team could be a beast.
Our D…..if it is only average will be enough to help us make the play offs, and many have rated Fields as the best under the radar pick up of the year.
I am willing to hedge my best on Nolan knowing more than you, me or any MSM types.
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
I was ecstatic when they dumped Bly
Dumping Bly and his rope-a-dope tackling style was an immediate improvement. I’m not sure why he’s still in the league.
Aside from that, I want to address some of your points.
Of all the AFC West teams, Denver has improved the most, and in the best ways when looking at coaching and players.
At this point, we have no idea who will be the better coach: Haley or McDaniels. And, depending on what version of the story you believe, McDaniels, himself, coveted Matt Cassel. Did he covet Cassel more than Orton? Maybe you know, because I don’t.
The Colts, Ravens, Cowboys and Redskins will struggle BIG TIME this year based on coaching turnover and player acquisition.
Why is it that the Colts, Ravens, Cowboys and Redskins will struggle because of new coaches and players, yet the Broncos won’t? I’d say the Broncos have changed more drastically than any of those teams, both in coaching staffs and players. I do believe, however, that changing coaches can be worth a couple wins…sometimes. Last year, Mike Smith in Atlanta and John Harbaugh in Baltimore exemplified this. Then again, for every Mike Smith there’s a Bobby Petrino. Plus, I believe other forces may have played a role in Atlanta’s success.
The giants are just BLAH and will miss Burress big time.
That’s some insightful analysis. I hadn’t thought of it that way. Thanks for opening my eyes.
I am willing to hedge my best on Nolan knowing more than you, me or any MSM types.
On this, we agree. But that would be the case with any NFL defensive coordinator. Probably any high school defensive coordinator. Just because he knows more than I doesn’t mean he’s the greatest defensive coordinator the world has ever seen. I have to be honest, I don’t remember him when he was previously with the Broncos. But I was pretty young. He seemed competent while in Baltimore…but he had unbelievable talent and that defense has continued to excel without him.
Anyway, thanks for your thoughts. I always enjoy reading your comments.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 1, 2009 9:06 AM MDT up reply actions
Hoosier Teacher wrote
a great post about the role of safeties a several months ago. It explains how Bly could go from an amazing corner in Detroit to such a low producer here in Denver, and it has to do with the CB’s relationship to the safeties and to the front 7. Remember, when we picked up Bly, we were supposed to have the best cornerback tandem ever assembled on the field. The fact that it didn’t turn out that way, may not be ALL Bly’s fault. But he’s gone, and it’s OK. “Stagger onward, rejoicing” – W.H. Auden.
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
I would add....
…that even Bailey looked so-so the years that Bly was here. I blame the coaching (safety in a box, 3 man rushes) and the front seven (no pressure), not Bly.
I think Bailey and Goodman will have a good year this season, and Bly would have too if he had been here. I don’t think he was utizlized properly, and he’s one of the few players I can excuse over the last couple of years.
Thanks for remembering the article Harv.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jun 1, 2009 11:20 AM MDT up reply actions
Thanks for writing it!
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
Ted B also chimed in with some great points
The first thing to understand about Dre is that he has definitely lost a step. He once had average CB speed, and it’s now below average. Michael Lombardi from the National Football Post wondered aloud last season if he can run a 4.8 anymore. I don’t think it’s quite THAT bad, but it’s an issue. He definitely needs safety help on deep balls. He is best playing tight, and facing a WR head-up, where he can get a jam on the guy.
The Broncos usually deployed him in off coverage, with no jam, and his back to the sideline, forcing the WR to the inside of the field. That is Champ Bailey’s strength, playing that way, (which makes him one of a kind, really) but Dre is very ill-suited for it. A lot of the passes which were completed against Dre were plays where the WR just took what Dre’s assignment gave them, and ran a Slant or an In. The LBs and Safeties for the Broncos were lousy in coverage in 2008, so whatever inside help that was schematically supposed to be there never arrived. You can’t blame a guy for playing the way he was assigned to play, even if it was a pretty stupid idea. Really, poor schemes have been a big factor the last two seasons. The Broncos have played a great deal of single-high coverages, with an eighth man in the box, because they were worried about the run.
When Champ Bailey got hurt and missed half the season, Dre started seeing a lot less passes thrown to his side. He was playing head-up and tighter, which helped, and the quality on the other side (in the form of Josh Bell and Karl Paymah) was lacking. I thought Dre tackled better during this stretch of the season than I had ever seen him do in his career. He’s never going to be an outstanding tackler, but he was very solid at it in the latter stages of 2008. My evaluation is that Dre is still a useful guy for a reasonable salary. With Walt Harris’s injury, I expect Dre to be a starter for the 49ers, opposite Nate Clements, and if he’s used right, he can be a good addition for them. I think signing him was a move with no downside, and pretty good upside.
Hillis/Moreno in '09
I think I'm higher on Dre than Ted.
But I think Ted sees Dre the way I do, whereas most folks just assume that Dre wasn’t that good to begin with. For a stretch of many years (just before coming to Denver), Dre was second only to Champ Bailey in INTs. I think he’s very underrated, and Ted thinks he is underrated.
Which goes to show that Ted and I are two, pretty smart dudes.
lol
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jun 2, 2009 7:48 AM MDT up reply actions
Bly's tackling was what made frustrated me
I have no idea what role the scheme played in Bly’s man always being wide open. So I can’t really fault him for that. But I don’t think scheme had anything to do with his poor tackling. He personified the idea of “arm tackling.” It was like he was playing with two separated shoulders all season.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 2, 2009 8:35 AM MDT up reply actions
Bly..
Several points on Bly.
One, his guys were always wide open because both he (and Bailey) were forced to cover receivers for a long period of time (thanks to no pass rush). Not even Bailey can stay on top of a receiver forever.
Second, Bly’s strength isn’t tackling. Few CBs can tackle a RB (again, blame the front seven). In a proper scheme, Bly should have been jumping routes to inercept or break up passes. In his old cover two in DET, he played under the receivers (the safeties were the tacklers, and the CBs covered passing lanes). In Denver, we was playing over. That’s not how he should have been used.
It is a poor analogy, but it is like blaming Bailey for being a bad DT if he were put in such a position. It just isn’t what he does. An underneath coverage guy who has made his career based on jumping routes or (when that fails) making the tackle at the moment of reception is just not going to thrive playing over coverage. He should either be zoned underneath, or playing man (over) with a ruh and a safety in place behind him. Without knowing if the safety was going to help his side of the field, he had to guess on every play whether or not to commit or to drop back as the play unfolded. That’s a terrible position for any player to be in. (It happened in a vey clear and disaterous example to Superman Champ Bailey in a GB game).
I just don’t think it was fair to expect Bly to stick to his receivers (no pass rush) or to all of a sudden play well over the top (with no safety support) given that he just never played that way. Given that, he was going to be out of place and in a poor position to make tackles outside of his own choice.
That’s just my opinion, but I think a look at the games over the last two years support that. It is one thing to say a player played poorly (which he did). But I believe that a deeper look shows that his poor play was in synch woth Bailey’s poor play, and both of them were cheated by defensive coordinators that rushed three guys and only kept one safety over the top. That’s why I think Bly was out of place and (by implication) was out of place to do any better than try to make terrible arm tackles.
He didn’t have this problem in Detroit, and Bailey didn’t do so poorly until we started pushing the SS into the box and forgot the meaning of “pass rush”.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jun 2, 2009 9:41 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks AJF...
Really quick…and I enjoy your post.
Coaching:
- Colts – Have lost Mudd and Moore. HUGE to the development of Peyton Manning, and big holes to fill.
- Ravens – Coach Ryan was the driving force and schematic master for the Ravens defense. No matter who you bring in he will be hard to fill.
Player Staff:
- Colts – Lost Marvin Harrison. No REAL pick ups at WR and some O line problems.
- Ravens – Loss of Bart Scott, Jim Leonhard. Still injury questions on Landry. These are big holes to fill. Biggest pick up to help secondary was Fox.
- Cowboys – Loss o TO is huge. Loss of Canty is huge.
- Redskins – No doubt they got a good player in Haynesworth, but you have to question what fire power they have on the O, and loss of Jensen will be big on that line.
- Giants – Loss of Plaxico and Ward. Release of Toomer. Did not pick up a good WR in FA.
Denver:
- Coaching – Nolan> Slowik.
McDaniels > Bates.
Dennison and Turner remain.
Nunnely, Martindale and McCoy are great pick ups and elevate the coaching staff.
- Players – Dawkins/ Hill> Manuel, McCree.
Goodman/ Smith > Bly/ Bell.
Champ and DJ remain.
Andra Davis> Nate Webster.
Focus on special teams vs NO focus on special teams
My post this morning was rushed, but when I look at the majority of teams out there that we play (at least the ones mentioned) I see some HUGE question marks.
Does Denver have question marks? Sure does. But our questions are more of how much BETTER our team is…..it is hard to be any worse when looking at player turnover and the massive improvements in our secondary.
When looking at other teams we play, I dont see any massive OBVIOUS improvements…..I juts dont and thats got nothing to do with drinking kool aid.
Our Broncos last year were the most OVER PERFORMED 8-8 team ever….we had a lot of luck and some great performances by rookies (which is encouraging).
Thanks man, and keep the posts coming, but I see many more questions when analyzing other teams we play than from our own team.
Peace.
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
by boydy2669 on Jun 1, 2009 12:52 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
75% of the roster is new
Or something like that…I thought I saw somewhere that the Broncos brought in 40 new players. Granted, not all will make the team, but my point is I can’t see how you can say you see more questions with the Broncos’ opponents than with our beloved Broncos. And that doesn’t even take into account the nearly wholesale changes in the coaching staff.
I like the back and forth, so let me attempt to address a few of your points. They were good ones, so I don’t know if I can refute them.
Colts – Mudd and Moore. I must admit, I didn’t even know who you were talking about until I did some research. I might be alone, but if there are other readers who also didn’t know, turns out they were offensive coaches. Both retired to maximize their pensions. I agree with you that these losses could be significant. But is there quarterback in the league you’d trust with a coaching change more than Peyton Manning? And if you say Kyle Orton, you’re credibility is shot. Peyton’s routinely described as a coach on the field. I’ve even heard it said that he could be a player/coach right now. In short, Peyton is the system in Indy. As for Harrison, only a fool would say he won’t be a loss. Nevertheless, I’ll try to minimize it because I’m stubborn. He’s still a free agent, suggesting that the league thinks his skills have diminished. To wit, in terms of production, the 2008 season saw his catches and yards drop off considerably. Anthony Gonzales isn’t bad.
It’s hard to find a defensive coordinator who didn’t look like a genius while coordinating Baltimore’s talent. I’m much more willing to dismiss Rex Ryan’s contribution than others might be. The list goes on and on…Jack del Rio, Marvin Lewis, Mike Nolan…I know I’m forgetting another. But the point is, the defensive coordinator for the Ravens might be the easiest coordinator job in the NFL. Watch: Whoever they plug in there will do well; the Ravens D won’t miss a beat and he’ll soon be promoted to NFL headcoach somewhere.
As for the Giants, I think the loss of Plaxico could be – to use your word – huge. I think he’s a special, albeit dumb, talent. But let’s not make Derrick Ward more than he was. Derrick Ward couldn’t start for the Broncos this year. Although he likely would have beaten out Tatum Bell last season.
Finally, I have the Broncos beating the Cowboys and the Redskins.
Turning to your comments about the changes to the Broncos’ roster and staff, I agree that the roster appears to have been upgraded. I don’t know anything about Nunnely, Martindale and McCoy. But I guess I’m unwilling to believe they’re the greatest position coaches in the league just because they’re now being paid by Pat Bowlen. And we still don’t know much about Josh McDaniels. He could be the next Scott Linehan. True, I don’t believe he will be, but that belief is based more on hope than anything else.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 1, 2009 1:46 PM MDT up reply actions
Moore
Moore was Peyton’s OC from the beginning and he (Manning) frequently stated that Moore’s steadiness and the consistency of having the same OC was a major reason for their success, especially when it came to in game adjustments. Moore was a master at reading and communicating to Peyton what the defenses were doing. As for the Ravens you’re right, but I have wondered if it’s just the players or having the right system (3-4 / 5-2 hybrid) for the player that is the key to their consistent success.
"as in football so in life"
Who could forget what Moore did to Roc Alexander?
Remember how Moore just kept going after him? It was like he was saying, “This guy doesn’t belong in the NFL.”
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 1, 2009 2:24 PM MDT up reply actions
Man
The first half of the game, I was screaming at Roc. By the 4th quarter I was trying to find a phone number for him so I could call him and offer to buy the poor guy a beer or two and tell him my company was hiring.
One of the most brutal game-long beat downs I have ever witnessed. Second only to Royal making Hall look like a fool and end his raiders career early (which, come to think of it, Hall owes Royal a thank you card for getting him out of Oakland).
Check out the website listed below...
by EastCoastBronco on Jun 2, 2009 8:10 PM MDT up reply actions
Manning
Manning is a brilliant QB but a very rare one. He has been given a large amount of freedom and responsibility and with a new coach you wonder if they will give him the same or not.
Tis better not to throw it to the deep receiver but the open receiver.
Jerry - about Harrision
I don’t have a lot of NFL connections. However, I am hearing one little thing out here in Indiana.
He’s still a free agent, suggesting that the league thinks his skills have diminished.
I’m hearing it has nothing to do with his skill. There is some concern about his past that isn’t public, and may involve some serious legal issues. This surprises me, becuase I always considered him a quiet, reserved playmaker. But I’ve heard that he may be quiet out of neccessity, because he really doesn’t need a spotlight on him.
The recent shooting incident in Philidelphia has drawn closer scrutiny on Marvin, and what teams are finding out about Marvin’s past may not be helpful.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jun 2, 2009 7:56 AM MDT up reply actions
I assumed
I assumed and could be wrong. I remember reading about lawyers, guns and money.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 2, 2009 8:37 AM MDT up reply actions
Boydy
In regards to #4, The ’Skins are really high on Stephon Heyer. He started a few games last year at LT and RT and did well. Jansen was disappointing last year and he is getting old. Please refer to my post “Hail to the Redskins.”
I think Jansen will do OK in Detroit this year ,maybe next too. He will surely be an upgrade for them and a steady locker room presence.
With the 12th pick, the Broncos select Knowshon Moreno - Roger Goodell
That'll move the chains - Andy Samberg
Thanks KK..
I really like JJ as a team leader and old hard head!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Dawkins/Hill > Manuel, McCree"
Make that >>>>>>>>>>>>>.
"In the empty spaces - lacunae, vacuums, pauses, voids, black holes - new things begin. We are born anew from the unexplored space, the badlands, the outlaw territory." - Sam Keen
agreed
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 2, 2009 8:37 AM MDT up reply actions
Hey Boydy
I can only listen to the team, and they are talking of great team chemistry, excitement and single minded focus.
As opposed to all the other NFL teams that are talking of lousy chemistry, boredom, and double vision?
Just giving you a hard time, but all NFL teams and players are into spin.
Growing older is not for sissies. Jack Palance
Get that Bradley....
But for the past few years with OUR team I have not being hearing it as much as I hearing it now…not even close!
Thanks for tha hard time…..I like it!!!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
Just so you know...
I tend to agree with you. Reading between the lines (or trying to) I do think I’m hearing genuine excitement out of Dove Valley. Just trying to be cautious.
Growing older is not for sissies. Jack Palance
Totally cool man. You know much respect to you!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
I'll just say that I'm more excited about this season than any I can remember
I don’t care what the record is. Well, that’s a lie. I do and I’ve been telling anyone that will listen to me that we’re going 11-5 next year, with the full knowledge that I could very well be eating crow at the end of the season.
On to your article, I don’t think the front 7 was the huge problem it was assumed to be last year. I believe HT wrote an article on it, saying that McD was a genius for addressing the secondary in FA and the draft. I don’t have the stats, don’t even know how/where to get them, but I believe that our DL played pretty good against the run, the problem was LB’s out of position and a poor secondary that allowed long runs to go unchecked into huge runs. I think Denver had the most runs against of 20 yards or more.
Basically I think the scheme and coaching will make a big difference in our LB’s this year and we’ll perform much better on defense this year. That and we won’t have Nate “where’s my freaking helmet?” Webster out of position all the time. There’s no where to go but up, we were the 30th ranked defense last year, so if they can be better than last year, say in the 16 range, our teams fortunes will be vastly improved; as long as the offense can perform somewhat as well as last year. Scoring offense was 16th so it has a lot of room to improve.
I’d just like to finish by saying that I did not make up that nickname for Webster, I read it on this site in another post many moons ago. I don’t want anybody thinking that I’m that clever. ;)
We don't devote nearly enough scientific research to finding a cure for jerks. - Calvin
I'm not enough of a "football scientist" to know
I don’t know what the defense’s problem was last year, all I know is Dre Bly became Public Enemy #1 in my house.
Was it the front seven? Not sure.
I can say that the revolving door at the free safety position drove me insane. I commented elsewhere that I believe experience wins out in the NFL. And while there might be other positions where experience counts more than safety, there aren’t many. So I was really happy that the Broncos picked up Dawkins. I don’t know much about Hill, other than I read that McDaniels said he was the toughest defender to game plan against last season. For me, the fact that he has started in the NFL on a respectable defense gives me some confidence.
Finally, to your subject line, I share your excitement. I can’t remember a season that I’ve anticipated as eagerly as this one. I hope I’m wrong. I hope Ayers is Defensive Rookie of the Year. I hope Fields was unappreciated and underutilized. I hope Ryan McBean got the short shaft in Pittsburgh. I hope DJ Williams finally lives up to his potential in his new position. And I hope McDaniels and Orton prove that good coaching, discipline and execution will beat a “laser, rocket arm” every Sunday.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 1, 2009 9:23 AM MDT up reply actions
A Bronco fan friend of mine
hated the Pats with a passion. Of their 18-1 season a couple of years ago, he said, “Brady is a technician. Yes, the Pats get wins. But they are no fun to watch!” His point was that there was no heroism in the Pats’ offense, no razzle-dazzle.
I tend to think I’ll take a W over a dazzling losing effort any day. But I am gonna miss Jay’s SUCCESSFUL amazing plays. Hopefully in a good system, Orton can show a little gunslinger as well. I’d rather not watch a formula offense. But if it works, I won’t complain.
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
Just a follow up...
I seem to remember that our defense played fairly well against the Jets and Falcons last year. I also remember that Webster was hurt and Larson and Woodyard were given starting time. I think this fact, more than anything, leads me to believe that our D can be better this year.
Also, not to compare McD with Bill Walsh, but Walsh had a system that a noodle armed QB did very well in, in one Joe Montana. BroncoBear wrote an excellent article that proves that a noodle armed QB and a good system can win in the NFL. That McD transformed a QB that hadn’t started a game since High School into an 11 game winner last year, makes me hope that he has just a similar scheme. But then again, I’m drunk on the Orange kool-aid. :D
I don’t know how to paste in a hyperlink ,but hopefully you can get this to work, if you haven’t read it already. http://www.milehighreport.com/2009/5/27/886729/bill-walsh-bill-parcells-and-the
We don't devote nearly enough scientific research to finding a cure for jerks. - Calvin
Thanks, solace
As with most writers, give us a nod and we try to steal the stage…nah, but regarding Fields? He was projected as the starting NT in SF for 2009 when we stole him. Lots of good reasons why, too. Here’s a link to that info – might be helpful. It comes down to explosiveness, hand speed and experience. There’s a reason that DL need a few years to mature, and he’s already done that.
I’m usually very hesitant to pigeon-hole players and outcomes with a single word or phrase, but overall I really liked the article and the response it’s generated. Thank you, and rec’d.
Hillis/Moreno in '09
Me either AJF...
But I do know that there is a reason they call them safeties and last year our safeties were anyhting but safe. System, scheming and coaching are absolutely critical but when it’s all said and done the players have to execute. From everything I’ve read the system works, we’ll have the flexibility to scheme and the coaches can all coach. Soon enough we’ll know if the players can execute.
"as in football so in life"
I too have the same worries.
Each year I get excited about our revamping of our front seven…each year I have been disappointed.
As for your W/L predictions….again, what is up with the winning in KC? We are 13-40 all-time in KC. Seriously, we lost last year to KC and they went 2-14. lol I just don’t see it.
Everything else…I can see happening, even the victory over SD. :)
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
win in KC
I had to do it to get them to .500. I guess you could swap out that win for one in Oakland. I think either will be difficult.
Truthfully, I’m not very confident about the Washington game either. If it were at home, sure. But it’s not, so I’m worried.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 1, 2009 11:07 AM MDT up reply actions
I think we upset a few of the L's you got up there too....
we always seem to lose a few we should win and win a few we should lose…even when Cutler wasn’t the QB.
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
some upsets are inevitable
But they’ll likely even out, don’t you think?
Maybe the Bengals will upset the Broncos in Week 1. The scary thing is, I’m not sure the Broncos will be favored in that game. I think Vegas has set the over/under win/loss total at 7.5. If that’s the number, I’ve already said I’ll take the over.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 1, 2009 4:22 PM MDT up reply actions
I can see a few upsets too. We surprised a lot of people when we beat San Diego and Atlanta
last year. Plus with Cutler gone, there won’t be as many turnovers as there used to be. That was one thing I hated about Cutler while he was a Bronco, he was careless with the football.
"When you put on that jersey, the name on the front is more important than the name on the back." - "Miracle".
"Winning means you're willing to go longer, work harder, and give more than anyone else." - Vince Lombardi.
Andra Davis
I’ll be shocked if Bronconation isn’t very pleased with this aquisition before all is said and done. His departure from Cleveland was more about regime change than his abilities. He’s not a side line to side line guy, but he can take guys on and shed very nicely. He’s a great tackler. His teammates describe him as a locker room leader. He’ll be a huge upgrade over Nate Webster, who probably missed a 1,000 yards worth of tackles the last two years.
I am an idiot walking a tightrope of fortune and fame
I am an acrobat swinging trapezes through circles of flame
If you've never stared off in the distance, then your life is a shame
and though I'll never forget your face,
sometimes i can't remember my name.
--Counting Crows, "Mrs. Potter's Lullaby"
by PredominantlyOrange on Jun 1, 2009 11:50 AM MDT reply actions
Davis
Proven. Thing about Davis too is that he is proven. There aren’t question marks about him, we know what we are getting and we can design things to use him well.
Someone with lots of time should go through all the plays last year and calculate what Davis would have been worth to us by taking each missed tackle by Webster and replacing it with a tackle by Davis.
Tis better not to throw it to the deep receiver but the open receiver.
The more I look at Davis, the happier I am.
I’ve always liked getting Davis. I love speed at LB, and Davis doesn’t have that, but he’s a solid guy. But the more I read about his leadership, the more of a steal I think we have.
Pencil it in. Davis starts this year at LILB.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jun 2, 2009 8:01 AM MDT up reply actions
Unproven???
REMEMBER RYAN CLADY?
I may be in LALA LAND but I am very optomistic about the D this year, Because, of the changes.
It is better to keep silent, and appear to be wise, then to ramble on and remove all doubt! The Wisest Man, Solomon.
I have said it before...
The bar on D isn’t exactly set too high.
Tis better not to throw it to the deep receiver but the open receiver.
Nice Post Agent
When did you work at Ball? My grandpa was an engineer there for years. Did you ever know Charlie Anderson?
"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway
I didn't know him
This would have been in 1992 or 1993. And I didn’t work for Ball; I worked at Ball for MasterKlean, a contract-janitorial service.
It was cool. The engineers treated me well. They’d let me hold globules of liquid nitrogen and stuff like that. At the time, they were working on a fix for the Hubble. I was a biology major with an interest in cosmology, so I had fun. I don’t remember passing a background check, but I must have given the nature of their work.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 1, 2009 3:15 PM MDT up reply actions
You would have remembered it.
The paper work I had to fill out for a clearance was one of the miserable experiences of my life. I HATE job applications, or filling out forms to see a new doctor, or college financial forms, etc. My clearance took days to fill out. The voice stress test (kind of like a polygraph) was MUCH less stressfull than trying to find out old addresses, names, phone numbers, etc of every school, friend, residence, job, etc.
I had nothing to hide. I just have some deep seated hatred of paperwork that isn’t in narrative form. (Perhaps I was molested by a human resources staffer as a kid).
: )
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jun 2, 2009 8:09 AM MDT up reply actions
Nice post....
It seems like you could sum up your post with one word – uncertainly.
There are signs that McD may be a good coach – but no one knows for sure.
There are signs that the defensive coaching will be better – but no one knows for sure.
There are signs that the FO has a plan – but no one knows for sure.
The Broncos could be better or they could be worse – but no one knows for sure( that includes Clayton).
Here are some things we do know:
Davis > Webster
Bailey/Reid ~= Bailey/Winborn
Peterson/Clemmons ~= Eng/Eck
Field/Parker/Powell > D-Rob (mostly cause he could only play 50%)
Thomas/McBean ~= Thomas/Clemmons
Doom/Moss = Doom/Moss
DJ/Woodyard = DJ/Woodyard
Bailey/Goodman >= Bailey/Bly
Dawkins/Hill >>>>>> Manuel/McCree
Nolan, et. al. > Slowik, et. al.
the 2008 defense was epically bad. But, while there are a lot of questions on defense, across the board we are either better or the same. The worst positions (Manuel, McCree, Webster) have been significantly upgraded. I don’t expect Denver to be a top 10 defense next year, but they won’t be a bottom 10 either.
I’m actually more concerned with the offense. There’s this prevailing meme the Denver had the 2nd best offense last year. Unfortunately, in every category that correlates to meaningful results (points and wins) Denver was merely mediocre. There’s been a lot of hype, back and forth, as a result of the culter-gate nonsense but the fundamental question, with or without jc, remains: how well will the Broncos offense integrate McD’s new system and perform on the field?
precisely
You nailed it, SWG
I’ve made it clear that I believe experience wins out in the NFL. Heck, I think the Patriots’ success is a testament to this idea.
So, I’m willing to hear what McDaniels has to say. I’m willing to listen to the players too. But, unlike frontalobe, I don’t equate listening with swallowing hook, line and sinker.
And while I’m listening, I’m also remembering that the other coaches and front office people are paid too. They’re also pros. Just because the Broncos’ decision makers are now being paid by Mr. Bowlen doesn’t mean they’re suddenly geniuses. There’s nothing magical about Pat Bowlen’s money. Dove Valley isn’t Hogwarts.
So when I broke down the front seven through the lens of experience, I did so under the guiding principle that the NFL’s other, non-Bronco coaches and general managers know what they’re doing as well. There were reasons why Ron Fields and Andre Goodman were available. Is it possible that we’ve discovered some underutilized, underemployed hidden gems? Absolutely.
But I have some questions for the 13-3 crowd: Back in the day, did you think Gerard Warren would be the next Warren Sapp? How about Selvin Young morphing into the next Terrell Davis? Or Nate Webster into Al Wilson? Or Darius Watts? Or Ashley Lelie? Or Karl Paymah? Or Hamza Abdullah? Or Boss Bailey? Or Nike Koutivides? I’ll stop there.
One other thing: I believe it would be a mistake to gloss over the players’ ability to change. With the exception of Ron Fields, every Bronco is learning a new scheme today. And many players, including several starters, are learning a new position.
I coached my son’s basketball team this year and the boys would grow frustrated when they’d miss a shot. And I’d tell them, “If it were easy, everyone would be in the NBA.”
Well, the same holds true for playing in the NFL. And even though these players are world-class atheletes, there’s a learning curve. We need only look at our own DJ Williams for proof of that.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 2, 2009 8:59 AM MDT up reply actions
As one of the 13-3 crowd
I too believe in listening. So far as “swallowing . . .”, my 13-3 position is based more on a choice to choose the path of optimism than on blind faith.
Do I truly believe in my heart of heart and brain of brains that we will go 13-3? Probably not. But I hope/pray for the best, while listening to all of the other posters to help me prepare for the worst. In reality, I believe that we will come down somewhere in between those two extremes.
Based on the excitement I hear in player interviews, the cautious optimism in McD’s interviews, the analysis I’ve been seeing from the many knowledgeable fans here at MHR (and I include both the Kool Aid crowd and the less inclined to use orange-colored glasses in that group of fans) I’m inclined to believe that we will do much better than the MSM predicts.
I agree that there will be a learning curve, which is why I applaud McD’s choosing to bring in Gaffney and Paxton — two players who are familiar with the new system, the bringing in of Dawkins — a proven veteran leader who knows how to motivate his teammates, the bringing in of Davis and Hill — two players who were (if I’ve read the posts correctly) instrumental in Miami’s turn-around last year — two players who know how to change to help bring success.
At the end of it all, should we happen to not go 13-3, I’ll be in line saying “Well, there’s always next year,” because I’ve been there and had to do that before. And each following off-seaon, I’ve gone back to chanting 13-3. :D
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
forgot Gaffney
I forgot that Jabar isn’t learning a new system as well. As for Paxton, I’m not sure what impact a system has on a long snapper.
But to your broader post, I think your optimism is totally reasonable. I believe Vegas’ win total is 7.5 wins for the Broncos. If you listen to the MSM, it’s probably closer to 5. So I feel like I’m being optimistic forecasting 8 wins.
Given the state of the team and, specifically, the defense, at the end of last season, I think that if the Broncos win 8 games and don’t make the playoffs, I’d be okay with that. I’d be disappointed, but my expectations were pretty low after that Buffalo game. Think about that: We lost to Buffalo.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 2, 2009 9:31 AM MDT up reply actions
I agree -- I was totally stunned that we lost to Buffalo
so far as Paxton goes, I think my take is that it’s less about what impact a system can have on a long snapper than on his ability to serve as a locker room leader for what McD’s trying to do — he’s been part of it first hand, seen it in practice etc., and help the other guys pick up on the terminology etc.
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
At least in the case of Goodman...
…we got him right after he had a terrific year.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jun 2, 2009 9:48 AM MDT up reply actions
yep, and Hill had a nice year too
Not all of our acquisitions are retreads off the junk heap.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 2, 2009 9:54 AM MDT up reply actions
Interesting points
But I have some questions for the 13-3 crowd: Back in the day, did you think Gerard Warren would be the next Warren Sapp? How about Selvin Young morphing into the next Terrell Davis? Or Nate Webster into Al Wilson? Or Darius Watts? Or Ashley Lelie? Or Karl Paymah? Or Hamza Abdullah? Or Boss Bailey? Or Nike Koutivides? I’ll stop there.
Other than being hopeful that Shanahan knew what he was doing on Niko, the answer was no, AJF. By the way, did anyone ever think Warren was the next Warren Sapp?
I know – your point was a generalization and there is very good reason for what you’re saying. Deliberate overstatement can be a useful rhetorical device. I respect your willingness to challenge what is being said around you. At the same time – generalization can get tricky. If you see a tendency to over-generalize in the positive, and you do, is it really better to do so in the negative? Critical thinking requires taking each point separately and dispassionately.
My point is simply this – There’s nothing wrong with critical thinking until neutrality is replaced by an overall cynicism that replaces one generalization (positive) with another (negative). We get Fields, who was slated to start at NT in SF because we paid him good money and because he likes Nolan. Goodman played the best ball of his career last season and was an available free agent. I’m not as big on Andra Davis on the field as are some but his benefit in the locker room is incalculable.
That’s true of Dawkins, too. We deeply missed a true leader last year, and have ever since Wilson went down. I think that it would be an error to ignore his impact there and he’s also a massive improvement over last years odious crop of safeties. Hill, too, played extremely well last year. Since McDaniels played Goodman and Hill twice last year he’s keenly aware of the problems they caused him. Certainly that influenced their acquisitions. Based on last year’s outcome, would anyone not take Hill and Dawkins over McCree and Manuel?
Peterson is often ignored because of the awful scheme last year and because folks say, “Well, I didn’t see him stand out”. Breaking down film, he often did a good job and it’s the nature of the position that when they are doing well, you don’t hear from them. Is he now a Pro Bowler? No. Just a decent rotation guy.
Who disbelieves that Moreno is an improvement over Young? While folks were hopeful, I don’t recall anyone thinking that he was gong to be TD. You can go through player by player and see clearly that our pieces this year are far superior to last year. This, too – the quality of our coaches has also changed for the better by any standards I can think of. Consider Nolan’s historical track record against Slowik’s. Over the past four years, did McDaniels or Bates have a better track record for the offense? The two best coach we had were Bobby Turner and Dennison, based on performance at their positions and they both are back. Overall coaching looks much better, basing that on last years outcomes.
How much better will we be or not be? That’s why we play’em!
Hillis/Moreno in '09
by Doc Bear on Jun 2, 2009 12:26 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
that's fair
If you see a tendency to over-generalize in the positive, and you do, is it really better to do so in the negative?
That’s completely fair. And, you’re right, I was exaggerating to prove a point. I doubt anyone believed Selvin Young was going to be the next TD. But I’d bet there were more than a few MHR denizens who believed his goal of rushing for 2000 yards was attainable.
To another of your points, I’d say I’m more skeptical than cynical. For much of my adult life, Mike Shanahan was the coach of the Broncos and all you ever heard from the old regime (and from the local media) was that the Broncos’ offseason additions were all Hall-of-Famers in the making and that with a sprinkle of Shanahan’s genius, they’d finally realize all their potential.
So my hopes would rise, the Broncos would start 4-1 or better before the wheels would inevitably fall off.
This is a new staff and maybe McDaniels is actually being honest. Maybe the spindoctors have left the building.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 2, 2009 3:40 PM MDT up reply actions
Pittsburg cuts McBean
Does anyone remember the circumstances w/McBean when he was cut and picked up by Denver, did Pittsburg want to bring him back but were undercut by Denver, or did Pittsburg decide he was a loser?
I am not sure how the transaction came about,
but, I’ve heard that he can’t be much good because the Steelers let him go. When has the Steelers become the “Brain Child” of the NFL? Would somebody please tell me.
Well hell
they dumped Joey Porter and what has he done ;-)
Santana Moss if I remember correctly as well.
by SlowWhiteGuy on Jun 1, 2009 10:54 PM MDT up reply actions
But Joey Porter was a proven starter. I haven't seen McBean playing for Pittsburgh on a regular basis.
"When you put on that jersey, the name on the front is more important than the name on the back." - "Miracle".
"Winning means you're willing to go longer, work harder, and give more than anyone else." - Vince Lombardi.
I disagree a little bit bfree.
1) The Steelers as brain child:
They always seem to have a high turnover in players, because they consistently bring in high talent at low cost. I think the Steelers front office is, quite frankly, one of the best front offices in th League. They let great players go, and replace them with unknowns who perform. In fact, Pittsburgh always seems to be a contender for the playoffs. (I won’t even add that they’re the current SB champs).
2)
…he can’t be much good because the Steelers let him go.
Players get let go for a host of reasons. Cost, scheme change, personalities, etc. I would never confine my analysis of a player to “He no longer plays for team X, therefor he must not be too good”.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jun 2, 2009 8:14 AM MDT up reply actions
Look at some of the players Shannahan let go...
…Bertrand Berry, Reggie Heyward, Desmond Clark, Billy Miller, Dominik Hixon, Monte Reagor…and others…all of whom made significant and sometimes huge contributions else where. The point being, getting released one place doesn’t necessarily mean that you can’t play. I say that knowing nothing about McBean…but only to make the point that he isn’t necessarily incapable of being a good NFL player.
I am an idiot walking a tightrope of fortune and fame
I am an acrobat swinging trapezes through circles of flame
If you've never stared off in the distance, then your life is a shame
and though I'll never forget your face,
sometimes i can't remember my name.
--Counting Crows, "Mrs. Potter's Lullaby"
by PredominantlyOrange on Jun 2, 2009 8:39 AM MDT up reply actions
one team's 2nd tier player
can become another’s A-list player
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Well said
Breaking into the Steelers’ defensive lineup is not a small job. McBean is a project, or at least he was. He was raw coming out of school and everyone who scouted him (that I could find) agreed that he needed two or three seasons in the weight room. He’s had a couple now and he’s showing some skill. I don’t place him on the 1st defensive team based on a mini-camp, but he might be helpful in rotation. Over time, perhaps more, perhaps not, but he had an injury issue (I didn’t get the details) and the Steelers’ roster was loaded. No big deal.
Hillis/Moreno in '09
thanks for your perspective agent.
It’s good to hear from those who don’t dive as deeply into the kool aid as I (and others) do. :D
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
listen to McD
it’s interesting how all of you are such great talent evaluators, maybe you should pay more attention to what the coach says and less to your reptilian brains, you have no idea what he is going through, the hours of evaluation, if he is wrong then ravage him , but until then, please give him the benefit of the doubt, i will be the first one and admit that i made a mistake if McD fucks up, and then i will move on, but until he proves himself to be a monkey brain, i love all of his decisions, how can you be so ignorant and arrogant to think you know more than he does? and you don’t even have 1/1000th of the information that he does. does any one remember what shanahan turned this franchise into for the last 10 years? If they don’t go 9-7 or better this year, then i will be the first to begin the negative conversation.
Where did that come from?
You might want to actually read some of the comments before making a remark like that. I don’t think you are responding to what you think you are.
You might want to tone things down a little to. We don’t roll with calling other members “arrogant and hateful” and “reptillian brains”. I didn’t agree with the post either, but my reply was respectful, and the author of the post wrote an intelligent opinion.
Step back, take a deep breath, and try again.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jun 2, 2009 8:18 AM MDT up reply actions
who are you addressing, frontalobe?
It’s almost as if think you’re commenting at the Denver Post …
arrogance
i appreciate the info of this website, i don’t aprreciate the arrogance, see you in december eggheads.
In the immortal words of Ace Ventura
La-hoo-za-her!
Everyone else on the sight has taken time to articulate their opinions. They may be right; they may be wrong. But they respect everyone else enough to be thoughtful. You are merely venting. Talk about reptilian brains!
by SlowWhiteGuy on Jun 1, 2009 9:26 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Don't mistake arrogance for optimism...
and whatever you do don’t upgrade that limited vocabulary.
"as in football so in life"
I tend to agree
with what you’re saying and I’ve predicted numerous times an 8-8 finish. The blessing is that we’re in the AFC west so that might just be enough. But I wouldn’t call you a wet blanket, just realistic. See the thing is, if everything goes right for the Broncos this year they could be great. The potential is there to be good but potential remains potential until it is realized. Like you said there are tons of question marks. Maybe 50% end up positive and 50% negative. Maybe nothing pans out for the Broncos and we finish at the bottom. We won’t know until the guys get on the field. All we have is hope right now and the comfort in knowing…at least we’re not the Raiders.
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