I am not a stat. guy

by Jon Tollerud on May 6, 2009 12:24 PM MDT Comment 48 comments

So you all know, I follow a few stats and know a few but I am a production guy. Like Brandon Marshall said "4500 yards... means nothing" I want a tick in the "W" column on the sports page. Hillis and knowshon each had 150yards? great, did we win? no, then I dont care. I am not saying that stats are bad or that you can't tell anything by stats but look at this:

Name /Gm

Cmp

Att

Pct

Yrds

Avg

Int

Rat

Player 1 16

297

467

63.6

3497

7.5

88.1

Player 2 15

302

471

64.1

3227

6.9

85.3

Who's stats are the first? Who's are the second?

Hint:

Player 1 ended 7-9 (2007)

Player 2 ended 9-7 (1992)

Need more?

Player one is Jay Cutler and Player 2 is Brett Favre. Both Players were in their second season. neither made a big enough impact on their team to lead them to the playoffs. I know Jay had undiagnosed diabetes but that has little ,in my opinion, to do with the bottom line here. 20 TD's to 14 INT does not bode well for his career.

Now I am not trying to pick on Jay Cutler OR Brett Favre, I am showing that those "nice" statistics meant nothing in the end. Sure you need to rack up yards and complete passes but if you dont score the touchdown you can't win the game. I would rather start every series north of the 50 and have my QB throw for 1500 yards and 40TD's than have my QB throw for 3000 yards and 20 TD's

anyway enough rambling ha ha

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

0 recs | Comment 48 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Your into Statistics,

Just the W-L statistic. Me too.

by diviesti on May 6, 2009 12:35 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Everyone's a stat guy, when it comes down to it

It just comes down to whhich stats you think are important, and which stats you ignore. Real statistical analysts would actually agree with you to some extent, because their real goal is to find the stats that come closest to the W-L statistic.

"Tree stumps are short, too, but have you ever tried to move one?"
J. A. Adande on Chuck Hayes

by jack_ on May 6, 2009 1:12 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some people, of course lose sight of that goal...

"Tree stumps are short, too, but have you ever tried to move one?"
J. A. Adande on Chuck Hayes

by jack_ on May 6, 2009 1:12 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

http://www.davusx.net/assets/db/la_la_land.gif

"We should have kept Seattle and dumped San Diego from the Division"

Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!

by Jon Tollerud on May 6, 2009 1:42 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Me three

kinda reminds me of the 13-1 stat that was floated around during the trade; a couple of good posts addressed that.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and hope you come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on May 6, 2009 12:42 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

exactly

http://www.davusx.net/assets/db/la_la_land.gif

"We should have kept Seattle and dumped San Diego from the Division"

Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!

by Jon Tollerud on May 6, 2009 1:43 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep in mind...

That those of us who emphasize statistics do not value statistics over end-of-the-day results. In the end, we’d all agree that what really matters is who won and who lost. John Elway had atrocious stats for most of his career, but he won games.

What statistics do (when examined properly), is tell us what potential may lie within a player. They tell us whether teams are under- or over-performing. They give us a more-informed idea of what to expect in the future. Statistics also correct our misperceptions, of which we all have many.

Those who misuse statistics utilize them as an excuse, or perhaps a distraction from reality. Statistics can never tell the whole story in any sport. Those who rely solely upon stats are missing much of the picture. But likewise, those who dismiss statistics as "only for nerds" or "for the non-athletes among us" are missing the point. My favorite is when folks play the "I played/coached and you didn’t" card. Frankly, I think those folks are intimidated by newer/higher thinking – it’s ridiculous to trust only your eyes or only your brain. Those who balance both will have the best understanding of what’s really going on.

by Douglas A. Lee on May 6, 2009 1:10 PM MDT reply actions 2 recs

Second this immensely. Good metrics can tell a lot of the story about a player, and a heck of a lot more than a guess at intangibles or a highlight reel can.

by draco193 on May 6, 2009 1:46 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand that NYC

one of the reasons I used Brett and Jay was to point out that it didnt matter how “good” their stats were or what may be underlying, they still didn’t show up when it mattered. a lot of people thought after proper treatment Jay wouldnt have the INT problem as bad but low and behold he did. Stats can show a lot but the W is the only stat i want

http://www.davusx.net/assets/db/la_la_land.gif

"We should have kept Seattle and dumped San Diego from the Division"

Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!

by Jon Tollerud on May 6, 2009 1:46 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ultimately W's matter

But don’t you want to know more? Like why the Broncos were 8-8, how they could have been better or worse, what exactly they need to improve? Yes, on Sunday nights it only matters whether they got it done. But isn’t there more to think about?

For me, the Broncos over-performed at 8-8. They have a long way to improve, and they can make a giant leap forward and still only be 8-8. Someone who doesn’t look at more numbers would say, “If the Broncos are 8-8 in 2009 then why did they bring in McDaniels? He’s no better than Shanny, nor is his team.” We ALL know better than that, don’t we?

by Douglas A. Lee on May 6, 2009 1:54 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

sometimes

but also sometimes you can see it in game and dont need the stats. why did we end 8-8 lack of pass rush and horrible run stuffing, week 4 when LJ busted a 40 yrd run i didnt need stats to see that. I dont have a problem with stats but using them blindly i do

http://www.davusx.net/assets/db/la_la_land.gif

"We should have kept Seattle and dumped San Diego from the Division"

Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!

by Jon Tollerud on May 6, 2009 3:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmm....

i never really get the “cutler sucks as bad as favre” deal. i’ve seen it come up a lot, but really, if cutler turns out to be a 3 time MVP and wins a Superbowl and becomes the winningest QB ever… i mean, is being compared to favre such a bad thing?

We are ready for an unforeseen event that may or may not occur.—Al Gore

by oxmouth on May 6, 2009 1:55 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

These things could, potentially, all happen. It’s the countless interceptions, the drama and the annual Should I Retire Palooza that wouldn’t be such a good thing. Remember, Favre’s image and legacy were a lot shinier 2 or 3 years ago (rightfully so).

by Douglas A. Lee on May 6, 2009 1:59 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

yep

and honestly, i’m one of those who never was a huge favre fan. not so much the quantity of the interceptions as the quality of them—he seemed to have a penchant for the untimely.

i think it’s okay to be a broncos/orton fan and still admit that jay’s a damn good—and likely a great—quarterback. (ouch. that still hurts a little…)

We are ready for an unforeseen event that may or may not occur.—Al Gore

by oxmouth on May 6, 2009 2:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your argument makes no sense.

“one of the reasons I used Brett and Jay was to point out that it didnt matter how "good" their stats were or what may be underlying, they still didn’t show up when it mattered. a lot of people thought after proper treatment Jay wouldnt have the INT problem as bad but low and behold he did. Stats can show a lot but the W is the only stat i want”

Say what you will about Cutler, but Favre is the #1 All Time Winningest QB. 3 Time League MVP and Superbowl Champion. I think he has proven his ability to win. The INT thing turns out to mean diddly squat.

by miner00 on May 6, 2009 2:41 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

when surrounded by a team

and Favre is only the winningest QB because he has stayed around so long what 18 soon to be 19 season now? its nothign to stack up wins when you do it for 20 years you are bound to be the winingest QB by default

http://www.davusx.net/assets/db/la_la_land.gif

"We should have kept Seattle and dumped San Diego from the Division"

Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!

by Jon Tollerud on May 6, 2009 3:10 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brett Favre took the Winningest title on Sept 16, 2007.

That was in the first month of his 16th season as a starter. (full disclosure, he played the previous year in Atlanta without a start or a pass attempt).

The man he took the record from played 16 seasons with win-heavy seasons at the end of his career. Or did John Elway only have the record because he played for so long?

Either way you look at it, Favre did it within 3 or 4 games of the amount of time Elway needed.

I can’t believe that you are forcing me stand up for Brett Favre, but I am not in favor of bashing for the sake of bashing.

If you want to complain about the Drinking, fine. If you want to complain that he took a dive for Strahan to get the sack record…fine. If you think he is a Schmuck…Fine. But don’t make crap up about the man to make your point. That makes us look like a bunch of uninformed homers!

Yes, Favre’s record had a great deal to do with the fact that he was surrounded by a good team. Thank you for making my point for me!

It should also be noted that the Packers had only had one winning season out of the last 6 prior to his (and Holmgren’s) arrival. It isn’t like he stepped into a good team and benefitted from previous work, he helped build it from the ground up.

by miner00 on May 7, 2009 8:43 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

But don’t make crap up about the man to make your point.

I dont think I did this with the above argument. If I did I am sorry, but liking the guy or not I think Montana is still the Winningest QB 4 Rings is hard to argue. Once again Favre may have a ton of wins but only one ring which kind of plays to my point i think. Montana may not be the top in every category but he does have 4 rings which puts him a top the big W column in my books

http://www.davusx.net/assets/db/la_la_land.gif

"We should have kept Seattle and dumped San Diego from the Division"

Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!

by Jon Tollerud on May 7, 2009 11:20 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course he is... When did we start talking about Montana?

Now I am getting confused.

My point was simply that Favre is a Winning QB. Yes, he is not Montana, but that doesn’t mean that he “didn’t show up when it mattered”.

by miner00 on May 7, 2009 11:30 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

my point was just that stats like yards et al matter not if your team ends 9-7, 8-8, 7-9 and out of the playoffs. Stats arent a reliable way of looking at a players “W” production.

http://www.davusx.net/assets/db/la_la_land.gif

"We should have kept Seattle and dumped San Diego from the Division"

Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!

by Jon Tollerud on May 7, 2009 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

There area lot of Favre stats that I DO NOT LIKE

and wins is one of them. Yes, I am biased becasue he overtook Elway to have the lead there, but he really strikes me as a compiler.

There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.

by Jeremy Bolander on May 7, 2009 1:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thats funny....Orton just wins games too!

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????

by boydy2669 on May 6, 2009 1:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think your going for the;

“Liars can figure, but figures never lie. "

by diviesti on May 6, 2009 2:44 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

As someone who loves statistics

I think the real problem is what statistics are used and how people use those statistics. None of the readily available statistics actually correlates to winning. In fact total passing yards (what the MSM loves to grab hold of) actually has a negative correlation. On top of that, most people are prone to cherrypicking their stats. They make a value judgements about some player or team, then proceed to grab those statistics that support their case while disregarding the ones that don’t.

At the same time, there are some statistics that do correlate with winning. While total yards does not correlate with winning, yards per pass attempt has one of the strongest correlations of any indivifdual statistic. Also, total interceptions does not correlate to losing as strongly as interceptions per pass attempt.

So there are numbers that do tell the story. They’re just not the ones you find on ESPN.com or any of the other MSM sites.

by SlowWhiteGuy on May 6, 2009 3:15 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Definitely, SWG!

I hope you got a chance to read this post, as it covers exactly what you’re writing about here!

My First Post: Fortified With Stat Nerdery

by Douglas A. Lee on May 6, 2009 3:21 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did

loved it, just haven’t had time to give it the response it deserves.

by SlowWhiteGuy on May 6, 2009 7:12 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rec'd that comment!

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on May 6, 2009 3:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

More on point...

And my personal interpretation of those stats above…
Both Favre and Cutler were pretty efficient as QBs. They were productive in terms of yards, and their QB ratings suggest that each player threw more TDs than INTs and had a solid YPA. However, their TD/INT ratios were both atrocious. As a comparison, Philip Rivers had 34 TDs and 11 INTs last year.

Looking just at those numbers, I’d say both QBs were pretty good. Certainly not great. If you showed me those numbers and asked me to guess what their respective team’s records were, I would say “I have no idea.” Anyone who would claim to know better would frankly be fooling themselves. Obviously, you need to know what type of running game, defense and special teams complemented each player.

You want a stat, aside from won/lost record that tells you more about a sports team than anything else? Look at their net points. Teams that score a lot more points than they give up almost always have excellent records, and those that don’t have good records either underperformed or couldn’t win the close games. During the season, those net points will tell you a lot about where a team is headed. It was the case last year with the Broncos and Chargers. Denver had a 3-game lead but had a big net-point deficit. The Chargers were just the opposite, and everything evened out in the end. The Chargers were in the playoffs, where they belonged, and the Broncos were at home, precisely where they deserved to be.

by Douglas A. Lee on May 6, 2009 1:25 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Rivers

Just as an aside…

Everyone says we got rid of a Pro Bowl QB but honestly, Rivers probably should have got that honor last year.

Tis better not to throw it to the deep receiver but the open receiver.

by Kfustud on May 6, 2009 3:12 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha, probably

Oh well, punks can’t be pro bowlers. That’s why Rivers didn’t get the invite. …………. wait, JC went. Nevermind. Forget what I just said.

by broncointheville on May 6, 2009 3:14 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ummm...Are you Comparing,

Jay Cutler to Brett Favre…and saying it is a Bad thing?

The Chargers were in the Playoffs, not because Rivers was any better than Cutler. The Chargers had a good running game, a good defense and decent special teams. I agree that they deserved the playoff spot, but it doesn’t have a diddly damn to do with the QB’s.

by miner00 on May 6, 2009 1:58 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I disagree, wholeheartedly

Rivers was light years better than Cutler. He was the NFL’s leading passer in TDs and QB rating. If Rivers had thrown the same number of passes as Cutler did, and kept the same TD% he would have had 44 TD passes to Cutler’s 25. The Chargers’ rushing game was not good – they failed to top 100 yards in 9 games. Their defense was 25th in yards allowed and 15th in points allowed. Philip Rivers carried the 2008 Chargers into the playoffs on his back. No doubt in my mind.

by Douglas A. Lee on May 6, 2009 2:04 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Rivers had thrown the same number of passes as Cutler did...

He wouldn’t have kept the same TD%…that is the point. This is the same reason that you can’t just extrapolate data from 1 game to determine who wins the Superbowl. It is a silly mathematical game based on comparing non-similar data.

by miner00 on May 6, 2009 2:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm just illustrating how much more efficient Rivers was

Obviously, I don’t need to extrapolate. Rivers had 34 TDs, Cutler had 25.

by Douglas A. Lee on May 6, 2009 3:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sadly, I have to disagree as well

I watched and broke down a lot of tape on SD last year. Other than the occasions, and they did happen, where Rivers fell apart and threw bad INTs or fumbled to kill drives near the endzone, overall he outplayed Cutler. He deserved the Pro Bowl, but after the diabetes press and the opening to the Broncos year, Cutler was going to get it.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on May 6, 2009 3:55 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about this guy...what do his stats say about him?

Player 3 16 327 605 54.0 3891 6.4 18 65 23 70.2

What does the 18/23 TD to INT’s and 70.2% rating say about his career?

Hint – This player went 11-5

by miner00 on May 6, 2009 2:08 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

did he ever try to take a snap from a guard?

We are ready for an unforeseen event that may or may not occur.—Al Gore

by oxmouth on May 6, 2009 2:15 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

by miner00 on May 6, 2009 2:16 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously

You didn’t actually read what I wrote. You are either glossing over it, picking a fight, or both.

by Douglas A. Lee on May 6, 2009 3:06 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is also Irresponsible to say that Diabetes wouldn't have any effect.

Symptoms of Type 2 Diabetes are:

Extreme Thirst
Extreme Hunger
Weight Loss – Muscle and Fat
Fatigue – Body and Mind
Blurred Vision
Slow Healing

Honestly it is incredible that he played as well as he did in ’07. It is difficult to manage Diabetes for regular people. let alone managing it for an elite athlete burning thousands of calories a day in practice.

by miner00 on May 6, 2009 2:19 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Who do you expect to argue with this statement?

“I would rather start every series north of the 50 and have my QB throw for 1500 yards and 40TD’s than have my QB throw for 3000 yards and 20 TD’s”

Sign me up for that team!

by miner00 on May 6, 2009 2:31 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

not an argument

just saying stats are a hard thing to judge someone by.

http://www.davusx.net/assets/db/la_la_land.gif

"We should have kept Seattle and dumped San Diego from the Division"

Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!

by Jon Tollerud on May 6, 2009 3:11 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Long Story short

Stats help determine where your effecient or deffecient, but reading into stats can only take you so far. At the end of the day W’s are all that matters. If we went solely off stats like the msm, the Broncos are in for a long season.

by diviesti on May 6, 2009 3:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ultimately stats can only tell you what happened in the past

Stats show past performance.
Compile a large enough of sampling of them, and use that sample to determine if patterns exist, then based on those patterns, make an educated prediction about future performance.
But when all is said and done, it is still only an educated guess.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and hope you come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on May 6, 2009 5:02 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I rather have my QB throw for 8000 yd and no TD

And I want my RB to have 10 yds and 200 TDs, yes stats are really meaningless

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman

by Broncoman on May 6, 2009 5:26 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs