A Brandon Marshall thought experiment - the dropoff in stats

He needs to prove he is a team player, and a team leader.
Please someone….and I mean ANYONE remind me when Brandon Marshall has been clutch for us?
A PREMIER WR will step up when stepping up is needed.
Is it not interesting to anyone that when Cutler needed a clutch play he went to Royal or Stokley.
Marshall , at best, and I am speaking at this moment, a possession reciever, with a lot of talent, but whos MO is goes missing in BIG GAMES when he is needed the most.
If he could have a season where he makes LEGITIMATE big plays and is clutch like guys like Moss, Harrison, Wayne etc he will see his pay day, regardless if his stats drop.
You think team dont take into account system they are playing in?
Teams out ther know he was the primary target for Jay, so they will take that into account. They will do the same in the new system.
Do you think anyone is seriously considering him better than Randy Moss because Moss has less catches????

As usual boydy is ahead of me, but a few points to add. I’ve seen a couple of posts mention this already and it drove me nuts. Depending on which source you use BM either led the league or was 3rd in the league in drops and I also recall 4 fumbles, 2 of which may have been game changers. So factor in these points plus Boydy’s point that BM is not clutch and then layer on the injuries and off field issues. I just do not see any way you can throw out a big contract right now. So to answer your question the risk/reward factors would lean heavily toward making him prove that he is healthy, has his past behind him, can grasp the new system and can hang on to the ball vs. try to save some money now because he’ll cost more later. Nice post and rec’d.

I think it would cost us more money to sign Bmarsh next year if he stays clean and continues to play up to his potential on the field. I don’t think Bmarsh would see much of a hit in value based on his stats in the upcoming season simply because the blame for his lack of productivity would be placed on Orton or Coach McD. I would rather we make sure Bmarsh is ready to act like a professional before we pay him like a true professional, even if it means we pay more for him next offseason than we can sign him for this season. A Bmarsh with his head on straight and healthy as a horse is worth that extra dough and the safe bet is to try and wait him out and pay him next offseason if his play and off field manner warrents it.

Most professional Athletes usually perform at a high level during a Contract year, knowing that it would lead to a bigger payday. But BM seems to be an anomaly. If he shows up and has an outstanding year, that will help is efforts to get what he wants. IMO, that would only be a good start.

I Don’t know and I Don’t care.

Although several writers have mentioned that Marshall’s numbers are likely to be less next year I don’t think that really has anything to do with his value to the Broncos or to other teams. First, personnel guys do not look at raw stats, at least the good ones don’t. They look at the player, his skills, and his football knowledge, and they project that into their system. There isn’t a team in the league that wouldn’t want a healthy Brandon Marshall playing for them. Manning said as much at the Pro-Bowl, although everyone would like to see him take care of the ball better. Some of that was likely to be coaching. Supposedly Shanny wanted his guys to fight for every yard. That’s just stupid football. There’s a time to fight for extra yardage; and a time to take care of the ball. His drops really aren’t an issue – he drops at about an average rate.

I think there real issue is whether a healthy Marshall will be available. First there is the issue of the hip problems. If you watched him over the season, Marshall was having trouble gaining separation later in the season. Looking back I wonder if he was having trouble with hard cuts and acceleration due to pain.

But the bigger issue is really the risk of suspension. Until the league decided on his latest infraction, there was a genuine risk that he would be suspended for several games. While the league did not take action on that incident, they explicitly held out the possibility of action depending on the outcome of his trial later this year.

The question of Marshall’s worth is hard to determine until you know the likelihood and length of a suspension. I don’t think anyone knows the answer to that.

on the contract/$$$ matter. As so many have pointed out, he holds no cards – THUS, THIS IS THE ONLY PLOY HE HAS, EVEN IF IT’S NOT A VERY GOOD ONE. And it is simply not enough to say that if he keeps his nose clean over the next year, it won’t matter if his stats go down a bit. These guys ALWAYS have to consider the possibility that today’s game – or even today’s practice (or in BM’s case, today’s goofing around close to the TV) – could be the last day of his NFL career. (How many milimeters just to the left or right in BM’s TV mishap would it have taken to have spelled permanent career-ending damage to his hand/arm?)

Fairly speaking, all of us would have to agree that BM, even with the injury and disciplenary risks, would normally be paid more than what he is making now – he is not even our highest paid WR, is he? So, again, wanting more money and using his only ploy to try to force something seems like a reasonable business risk/decision, and it’s done all the time in the NFL.

What demonstrates BM’s immaturity is the “good-bye” posted on his blog at this stage of the game. Even if Pat said what he is reported to have said, you don’t say “sayonara” until you KNOW you’re out of there. Stupid.

As to how good BM is: a lot will depend on how good his hip is. (The hip situation may simply have reminded BM of his own (NFL) mortality, or – scary thought alert – BM may know/feel that it is much worse and that’s why he is trying to get the big pay-day now – he’s afraid it’ll be his last!) Although I don’t think he is as good as some think he is, I still think he is VERY good and could continue to get better. I think boydy’s and others’ points regarding the possible lack of “clutch-time reliability” (including drops and fumbles at key times) are well made. But I also remember the point made in another post relating to the possibility that BM could take on a Moss-type role in an expatriate (living in Japan, I have been dying to use this pun for the longest time – apologies) style offense. In other words, he could have a lot of balls thrown his way this year. Plus I love his YAC energy and his ability to force the defense into double coverage and special attention. We are simply much better with him than without him.

On the off-field side, ughh – I’ve seen these kids who think “love” is entirely a physical free-for-all, that has to be either an intense fun-high or punch-fest brawl. There’s just no settling down because outside of partying and fighting, these people are unaware of anything else in life that could hold their attention. It’s like the addicts dilemma – if I stop doing drugs, what could ever make my life as interesting again? These people have just never learned, as corny as it sounds, the profound joy of the simple pleasures in life – reading a good book, talking about your dreams for the future, (ones that you CANNOT instantly fulfill with the $$$$$$ from an NFL salary or with the most recent credit card you received in the mail), with someone you love, enjoying the small accomplishments in life. For me, this is a deeper problem than “BM needs to stop beating on women.” Seems to me that he and his women just don’t know what else to do with the fantastic luxury of their lives. (Living in the US EVEN in this day and age still puts these people in the top 0.00001% of the luckiest humans that have ever lived from a materialistic standpoint, not to mention the prestige and $$$ of an NFL career.)

Anyway, conclusion, we need to sit on him, keep him, in the absense of a VERY substantial offer, (which I don’t see coming), check out his hip and maybe agree to recontract IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SEASON at some somewhat pre-arranged figures, with penalties/disincentives, assuming that health and off-field don’t interfere on the field.

Sorry for the long ramblings…….

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