Smart football blog on Brandon Marshall trade situation.

by MadDogExtra on Jun 19, 2009 12:34 PM MDT

I don't mean to club BM's topic to dead after Guru's articles and numerous MHR's readers comments but Chris at Smart football blog has a good thought on the BM situation, so I thought it may entertain our Bronco's fans especially the works here are slow on Friday regardless the status of the economy. For those who are not aware of Chris's Smart Football Blog, his works are very highly thoughtful, well presented analytically, logically and technically (Xs & Os) and might be a good addition to MHR's readers.

Deal or No Deal and the incoherent views of "trade value"

Notable quote

"The upshot is that "trade value" should not be confused with the maximum possible upside. Yes, Marshall has big upside, but all the risks surrounding him bring that value down, just as it does for Plaxico, Pacman Jones, Vick, T.O., or even guys on the total straight and narrow who are an injury risk. Just because a player might be great, or has the potential to be great, does not necessarily make their trade value better than another player. There's a difference between upside and realistic expectation."

With the realistic expectation in place, Bronco should trade him if some clubs offer 1st round draft pick but the hardest choice would be an offer of 2nd round draft pick (as in Chris's comment). If that is the case, should you just trade him with 2nd round draft pick or have forced him to play with his current contract?

Your thoughts?

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

Hey Mad Dog...

…thanx 4 the feed. I agree with your point about the guy being logical. He makes some good points.

It is better to keep silent, and appear to be wise, then to ramble on and remove all doubt! The Wisest Man, Solomon.

by metalman5050 on Jun 19, 2009 1:07 PM MDT reply actions

You're welcomed.

He’s very strong in analyzing plays, tactics and strategies too. College level that is.

Words can fool men but Nature doesn't give a damn!

by MadDogExtra on Jun 19, 2009 1:52 PM MDT up reply actions

Yeah, interesting piece...

Nice give and take with the Shutdown Corner guy in the comments too….

"I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today" -- Wimpy J. Wellington

by Broncs Cheer on Jun 19, 2009 1:17 PM MDT reply actions

It'll never happen...

but if it did I’d like to see Marshall for Anquan Boldin… Heck, toss in a 7th rounder to compensate for the hip injury and off the field stuff..

Done.

by Jezru on Jun 19, 2009 1:22 PM MDT reply actions

How much would you give for BM?

If I was a GM, I would not part ways with a first rounder to get BM. If things do not work, out that is the kind of decision that will cost a GM a lot. Marshall could very well face multible suspensions in the comming years – he seems to have a nack for getting in trouble.

As a GM I would serriously consider a second rounder, and if BM pans out I would bask in the glory of my wisdom.

If I was GM of the Cardinals I would not bring in BM and certainly not for Boldin. I would consider taking BM and a second rounder for Boldin. But not at a first resort.

by Jeeeeens on Jun 19, 2009 2:15 PM MDT reply actions

First round pick from which teams?

Will a GM from a team, if being realistic, figures to have picks #1 to #5, have a completely different set of value/risks assessments about their #1 and the value/risks of BM to their team compared to the GMs of teams with #27 to #32? If I have several good receivers and want to pad the roster and will have a #28 next year, why not? If I have no good recievers and no one coming out looks worth #3 money, why not?

broncorat

by broncorat on Jun 19, 2009 2:40 PM MDT up reply actions

interesting blog, thanks

to me, no on the second-rounder. in fact, no to a draft pick. we have enough youth and risk already, and we need a player who is proven like marshall, in my opinion. a quality starter would be the only deal i would make, with picks evening up the trade, if necessary. we could end up with nothing, or just much less, and it’s more doubtful we draft a pro-bowl 2nd-rounder, or even 1st, if it’s low. my take, anyway

taste my blintzkrieg!
2009-year of the secondary?

by davecheffy on Jun 19, 2009 3:46 PM MDT reply actions

It's all about unknowns

His potential upside is known and his injury recovery could be known in time. The unknown is BM’s behavior. The probability of him tangling with the legal system is very high and hence the probability of suspension. If it happens, a 2nd round draft pick is better than BM even with its own unknowns of whether a draft could materialized. What good is that if a star receiver can’t perform due to suspension or jail time? Any draft is better than Michael Vick or Plaxico Burress in the dog house.

On the other hand, if you don’t trade him when an opportunity arrived then his value can go down to zero if he goes ballistic again. He might be lucky with many dropped charges in the past, but Lady Luck doesn’t have infinite patience. Xander is facing a hard choice and whatever his decision would become backfired one way or another. If BM screws up and he didn’t trade then people with 100% hindsight on one side would question “Why didn’t you trade him? Don’t you read the Guru timelines lately?”
If he traded him and later BM changes to become a super star elsewhere then people with 100% hindsight from another side would question “Why did you trade him? Did you know that BM has tremendous potential upside as everybody know it?”

My take is this:

1st round: trade him no question asked but I don’t think that would happened for any decent GM to part 1st round pick for a damaged good. The order of draft pick has to be there for a reason or else everybody would jump to 6th round pick for another TB2.
2nd round pick or any equivalent swapped draft picks: go for it because with BM behavior tendency, the chance that Lady Luck drops him is very high. I understand It’s hard decision to make for those with emotional investment in BM.
Keep him is the least favorable choice but I understand the reason behind. It’s all about hope.

The 2nd choice doesn’t gain much advantage over the 3rd choice hence the most difficult decision. Most GM probably would make the safest decision by not trading him and let him forced their hand. And that what I expect to see BM in training camp too. He needs the Broncos more than the Broncos needs him.

Disclaimer: I also like to clarify that this is not a dig against any one camp but rather a poking fun of how serious we are about the certainty of our knowledge for an unforeseen even. Any hurt feeling is unintended.

Words can fool men but Nature doesn't give a damn!

by MadDogExtra on Jun 19, 2009 7:57 PM MDT up reply actions

Pick between

20 and 32 in the 1st round is what I would give up. If I am a GM of a playoff team with a big need at wide receiver I would take a chance and go ahead and give up my 2010 1st round pick for Brandon if I believe I will be a playoff team. I am sure a team that trades for Brandon (I think he will be traded before the regular season starts if someone offers a 1st rounder and other pieces) will want to give him a physical and interview him before a trade is made but if healthy Brandon is not only one of the best receivers in the NFL but one of the best players period. I wish him well if a trade is made but Josh McDaniels is on a 2 year leash to me. I don’t expect much in 2009 but he better be in the playoffs in 2010 or I think Bowlen will fire him. I have posted on here that Cutler and Marshall would be the best duo in the NFL for a decade or so and be like Montana and Young to Rice but McDaniels has destroyed that possibility, at least in Denver anyway. I can’t believe how crazy this offseason has been and the craziness continues. I don’t think any NFL team in history has gone through as many big changes as the Broncos have this offseason. We will see how things play out on the field and I can’t wait for the season to start!!

by broncorob on Jun 19, 2009 4:04 PM MDT reply actions

Thanks for the heads-up. I like his style, will read more.

And if Marshall winds up making the pro-bowl elsewhere, then they can (or at least should) be able to safely say that they made the best decision they could under the information they had.

This is something I hope to expound on further at a later date in a complete Fanpost.

I fear that there are those out there both inside and outside Broncos Country who will take our continued optimism if things go awry as ad hoc rationalization, worth next to nothing in objective terms. This quote shows just how wrong these people would be in thinking that.

"3rd and 6, Elway shotgun... Elway, scrambling, looking, running-- DIVING!!!-- inside the 5 yard line for a first down! Is he only 37?! How important is this football game? How bad does John Elway want to win this football game? Where you see the quarterbacks go down: Not Elway!"

by Sharpe as a Tack on Jun 19, 2009 4:46 PM MDT reply actions