Checking Facts (or wouldn't it be nice if they would?)

by BShrout on Jun 22, 2009 9:00 PM MDT Comment 89 comments

After watching Solomon Wilcots' interview in which he gave his opinion of the Broncos I found myself wondering how nice it would be if he, and other MSM "reporters," were to actually check their facts before they open their mouths to speak. Wilcots repeatedly made the comment that Josh McDaniels' "prototype" quarterback for his system is a tall, strong armed player who could throw the ball 40 yards down the field. He referenced Drew Bledsoe, Tom Brady, Matt Cassel and Jay Cutler to illustrate his point. He commented that Orton did not fit the prototype, due to being shorter, and not having a strong an arm.

I found myself wondering just how accurate Wilcots' points were, so I went to nfl.com and pro-football-reference.com to check some facts.

Regarding Size

The following heights & weights were listed for the players named by Wilcots:

Drew Bledsoe 6-5, 238

Matt Cassel 6-5, 230

Kyle Orton 6-4, 226

Tom Brady 6-4, 225

Jay Cutler 6-3, 225

I find it interesting that of the quarterbacks named, Jay Cutler is the smallest.

Regarding Arm Strength

The following stats reflect the number of completions which were 40 or more yards each quarterback has thrown in their careers and the longest each player has thrown.

Tom Brady -- 59 in 8 seasons, or 7.3 per season.

Drew Bledsoe -- 94 in 14 seasons, or 6.7 per season.

Matt Cassel -- 6 in 1 season or 6.0 per season (all of Cassel's 40+ completions occurred in 2008)

Jay Cutler -- 16 in 3 seasons, or 5.3 per season.

Kyle Orton -- 7 in 3 seasons, or 2.5 per season (he threw no passes in 2006)

So I will give Wilcots a pass on the issue of arm strength, as reflected by completions of 40 or more yards. Which means that he was half-right.

What will be interesting to see is whether or not McDaniels is able to develop Orton in the same way that he developed Cassel and Brady (two players with whom Orton shares similar physical size -- despite Wilcots' claim to the contrary -- hmmmm . . . maybe McDaniels wasn't impressed with Cutler because he was too short. JK)

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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In college

During the summer between high school and college, Orton won a scholarship to Purdue University partially on the basis of out-throwing Jon Kitna, then an NFL QB, and completing a pass of 72 yards. This entire story of him not having a strong arm has been wildly exaggerated and is just as accurate as the nonsensical story about him being too short.

As an example, in the game against New Orleans, 14th game of the regular season 2008, with a bad right ankle and being unable to throw properly off his back foot, he nearly completed a pass of over 50 yards to Devin Hester. It was overthrown by about 1 foot. Hester did a double move on his route that got him free but took up slightly more time than they had worked out. If that’s what he does injured, the entire silliness come crashing down when he’s healthy.

While he needs to master some mechanics and will never throw the long ball the way some QBs do, he can make any throw that an NFL QB needs to make. Oddly, when he was playing well in the 1st half of the 2008 season, writers around the league were praising him. When the trade came along, suddenly he was trash. Some folks just need someone to hate. That hasn’t changed in 10,000 years.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jun 22, 2009 9:33 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

i think you're absolutely right

some people just aren’t happy unless they’re complaining about something

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 22, 2009 9:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

When the trade came along, suddenly he was trash. Some folks just need someone to hate.

That and its just plain easier to talk about the trade when you simplify it as Cutler for Orton. It takes too much work to look at the actual, bigger picture. I tend to think that the physical discrepency between Orton and Cutler is more than offset by the additional players Denver got out of the mix, but thats just Kool Aid talking, I guess.

In otherwords, being logical and fair takes a lot of bite out of one battle tested method of ripping Josh McDaniels and the Denver Broncos. It’s like expecting a hippo to leave one perfectly good wallowing pool for another.

I am an idiot walking a tightrope of fortune and fame
I am an acrobat swinging trapezes through circles of flame
If you've never stared off in the distance, then your life is a shame
and though I'll never forget your face,
sometimes i can't remember my name.
--Counting Crows, "Mrs. Potter's Lullaby"

by PredominantlyOrange on Jun 23, 2009 11:33 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Forget that punk, NFLN is getting as bad as ESPN.

I’m getting sick of the whole bunch of them. This isn’t anything that we didn’t already know B, and why those creeps (MSM) love to lie to the world, it is beyond me.

by bfree2bronc on Jun 22, 2009 10:03 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice stats...

And just because he doesn’t have alot of stats for throwing over 40 yds doesn’t mean he can’t. More a victum of the Bears offense than anything else.

by bchiper on Jun 22, 2009 10:37 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

+1!

My thoughts exactly. I don’t KNOW that Orton’s 40+ yard pass numbers will increase with Denver because he was in offense that didn’t feature the long ball or have receivers that were a threat in that area, so we just don’t know for sure yet. However, I can almost guarantee you that Cutler’s 40+ yard pass numbers WILL go down in Chicago next year. What will Wilcots say then? So, as always with stats, they can be deceiving and manipulated to prove just about any point, and no one does that better than the MSM.

And by the way, someone wrote a post not too long ago about how overrated the long ball and its corresponding stats actually are over the course of the season. If I can find it, I will post it here (I almost want to say it was BShrout, but I don’t remember). I bet if we broke down Brady’s long ball numbers PRE-Randy Moss, it wouldn’t be quite so high. He was definitely more of a short to mid-range passer and a dink and dunker for his first few years with the Patriots and we know how that turned out. But, as always with the MSM, revisionist history, stat manipulation and even complete B.S. (see QB sizes and weights above for an example) are just par for the course.

I’m glad some of you do it because it keeps us informed, but I won’t even watch, listen or read all of the garbage from the MSM anymore. When I do I can literally feel it sucking out the last few neurons I have left rattling around in my head, as well as slowly destroying my soul. So hats off to BShrout and the others who can take it. You are much stronger and more patient than I.

"Reality continues to ruin my life." - Calvin (Calvin & Hobbes)

by RockyMtnHigh on Jun 23, 2009 12:17 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's the post I was referencing about the long/deep ball and how it's somehwhat overrated.

It was by bfree2bronc, not BShrout (sorry, bfree). You might be surprised by the numbers. I was.

Don’t “RAG ARM” me, man! by bfree2bronc

"Reality continues to ruin my life." - Calvin (Calvin & Hobbes)

by RockyMtnHigh on Jun 23, 2009 12:35 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks rmh

I’m also wondering how much of the long ball passing yardage is a result of yards after catch, but I don’t know how to go look that up. :)

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 23, 2009 6:34 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was the stump I run into doing that post B, and thank you RMH for the referrence.

I was watch replay on NFLN yesterday with the Bears and Saints. On one play Orton threw the ball nearly 50 yards to Hester. Hester made a move to his left and had to slow a little to get to it and was bumped and an arm from the defender caused a penalty. Hester dropped the ball because of the defenders arm and hand, but never the less the ball traveled 46 yards plus in the air. Admittedly he threw way more short passes but the 50 yarder is there if they choose to throw it. I do not have any idea why the MSM are so adament about Kyle having a weak arm.

by bfree2bronc on Jun 23, 2009 9:01 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

If it's available

watch the replay of the Bears vs Saints in 2007. Game 16. Orton made several throws over 40 yards. They were all on the money. I’m very tired about all the BS from MSM about Orton’s arm. Kyle’s arm comparable to Brady, Manning, Roethelsberger, Bledsoe, Cassell, etc..The key for 2009 is the upgraded line and receivers. There will no longer be the need for Orton to make lemonade out of lemons. Once he develops his timing with the great Bronco receivers, the sky will be the limit with or without BM.

by rocko1 on Jun 23, 2009 9:26 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks rocko1.

The way McDaniels will use him it won’t be necessary to chuck the ball down the field on every set of downs. Maybe once or twice a game for balance. I loved his check offs in that game yesterday, and I didn’t see him make any major mistakes all game. One interception was a deflection off the receiver, and his foot work wasn’t all that bad. He has been working on certain parts of his stance and drop back technigue and outlined in broncobears post a couple of weeks ago. I believe we will see a much improved QB in Kyle Orton this year, and Chicago may be sorry they let him go.

by bfree2bronc on Jun 23, 2009 9:56 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anytime

Kyle’s only 26 with 31 starts in the NFL. Allways room for improvement and Orton will put in the hard work necessary to achieve it. He has a great work ethic and attitude. Leadership baby!

by rocko1 on Jun 23, 2009 10:34 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

And let’s not forget whose tutelage he’ll be doing all of this under. I think it’s safe to say McDaniels knows a thing or two about coaching QB’s and maximizing their strengths and minimizing their weaknesses. Plus, he didn’t just accidentally get Orton in this trade. He obviously saw something there he believed he could work with and make successful. And, as was mentioned, throw in the far superior O-line and plethora of receiving options (WR’s, TE’s & RB’s) and I don’t think it’s unrealistic to expect a solid, if not great, year from Orton.

"Reality continues to ruin my life." - Calvin (Calvin & Hobbes)

by RockyMtnHigh on Jun 23, 2009 11:18 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

LFJ posted yesterday and babbled something about Turner teaching Cutler patience

I had to admit,- I was stunned. did Ron turner ever teach a QB much of anything? Has he turned out an All-Pro QB? Learned how to use one by adapting a game plan to their skillset? I don’t say this to rag on Turner, who’s probably a good guy, but to ignore McDaniels ability to teach QBs is kind of bizarre

Rocko, I also watched Orton in the Saints game, Game 14 of 2008 just yesterday. On a bad ankle he just barely overthrew Hester, who was touch late getting out of his second break on a nice route – 50 yards, and slightly overthrew one of the fastest guys playing. This silliness about his inability to throw long is just that – hype.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jun 23, 2009 11:59 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's an interesting history

Between jay and Turner- read here

Interesting how Dad cutler says it’s all cool now, while Turner pretty much denies their account of what happened.

by AllBroncsallday on Jun 23, 2009 2:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

A good indication

In 2007, Orton played only the last three games of the season. 1st game against the Vikings he was rusty and the Bears lost at the Metrodome. 2nd game against the Packers was the 50 mph wind game in Chicago(Orton clearly outplayed Brett Favre). 3rd game was against the Saints. one of my reasons for pointing to this game was the fact the Bears actually had better receivers than 2008. Bernard Berrian and Mark Bradley were with the team. Orton outplayed Drew Brees and made just about every throw imaginable that game. Everything from screens to deep routes. He looked very sharp in leading the Bears to a W. Just a sample of things to come for the Broncos. I completely agree with the point about the benefits of upgraded coaching RockyMtnHigh.
Broncobear, the hype about Orton’s arm will probably not go away until he has his first 400 yard game with the Broncos.

by rocko1 on Jun 23, 2009 2:27 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

And then people will complain

that in that 400 yard game no single receiver had over a 100 yards (because of the way the ball got spread around) LOL

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 23, 2009 4:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

No way

I know some people get really critical, but if Orton throws for 400 yards there is no way someone gripes about that….now if we still lose or he throws 5 picks, I can see some grumbling. But otherwise no way.

I don’t want breakaway speed. I want break-some-poor-fool-as-I-bowl-you-over power getting 6 yards off a play that should have been stopped for 2 at most.

by sadaraine on Jun 23, 2009 5:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

When he does, they'll complain about the running game

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jun 23, 2009 5:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haaaahaaaahaaaaaaa...you are absolutely right.

by bfree2bronc on Jun 23, 2009 6:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

and Solomon Wilcots

will complain about Orton going 1 for 4 on deep passes over 40 yards.

by rocko1 on Jun 23, 2009 9:07 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

rolling to his left

with a defender in his face. On a bum ankle. In the wind.

by JeffG on Jun 24, 2009 12:14 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the snapshot from a Bears game

I’ve got NFL rewind, but haven’t had the time to go back & look at each of Orton’s 2008 games.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 23, 2009 10:54 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

do yourself a favor

Watch the 1st half of the Philly game. Heck of a snapshot. Madden was drooling about Orton, couldn’t praise him enough, and Orton kept proving him right.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jun 23, 2009 12:00 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll check it out, thanks for the suggestion

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 23, 2009 1:39 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

WOW

What great dicussion my little two liner resulted in. You guys rock.

by bchiper on Jun 23, 2009 4:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

and you rock

for tossing that “little two liner” into the mix.

thanks for the contribution

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 23, 2009 5:31 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

What’s the purpose of the “Jay’s the smallest” point? Who cares, I’d still trade for him. He went Vanderbilt and was an honor student so he can learn any playbook.

Needagoodtime!

by Loveforjoy! on Jun 22, 2009 10:57 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

sorry if offended lfj

it was a knee jerk reaction to Wilcots’ statement that Orton was shorter than the other players named, when in fact, in terms of height, Cutler is. It was aimed more at Wilcots’ not bothering to research his data before making a sweeping statement.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 22, 2009 11:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

The capacity to learn and the ability to make decisions quickly are two very different animals.

by Velveeta on Jun 23, 2009 9:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

BShrout

You are a much respected poster here….

How do we bring back the, “Mile High Salute”….?
.

Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.

by Mike Clark on Jun 22, 2009 11:19 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

ty Mike

I love that picture, and I believe we’re going to see Hillis and other members of the offense getting to do a lot of it this year.

13-3 Baby!!!

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 22, 2009 11:50 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

We all need to e-mail Eddie Royal and encourage him to promote it.

by bfree2bronc on Jun 23, 2009 9:04 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

and Hillis

Graham, Sheffler, Gabney . . . . :D

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 23, 2009 1:40 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just having fun with this one...

Most of all… we won’t have to see Hillis get a bad hand-off from “he who must not be named.” LOL!!!

Again… just having fun! Cutler has mad skills, I know. Just having some fun with the topic. Don’t flame me…

Take my advice... I'm not using it!
Just click your heels together three times and say, "There's no player like Hillis... there's no player like Hillis."

by BroncTastic on Jun 23, 2009 12:22 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

You bad...very bad...bad.bad.bad...LOL.

The defender got in on that play, the redneck can’t make them all, but he will IMHO be a hit this year.

by bfree2bronc on Jun 23, 2009 9:07 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah...

No doubt. I love the Moreno pick now, but when it first happened I thought, “What? What about Hillis?!!!!” I’m looking forward to seeing what Moreno and Hillis accomplish together in that backfield.

Take my advice... I'm not using it!
Just click your heels together three times and say, "There's no player like Hillis... there's no player like Hillis."

by BroncTastic on Jun 23, 2009 9:24 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

in re: wilcots' "the morale has taken a hit" statements

take a look at the linked video about running red rocks in horse tracks.

20 players (or a quarter of the current roster) volunteered for an optional alternative workout. They were working, razzing one another and joking for the camera crew. Josh Barrett commented about how great an opportunity it was for bonding with teammates.

Really sounds like a group with morale problems to me. :D

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 23, 2009 7:18 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Life time Bronx fan, first post on MHR

My take on the over “40 yrds” thing is this, many believe that KO has the arm strength to throw the ball deep it is his long ball accuracy that comes in to question. However if memory serves me correctly Tom Brady’s deep ball wasn’t to impressive, until a few years ago.

IMO he developed his accuracy thanks to coaching and improving his mechanics (McD?) along with the addition of Randy – I can make any quarterback look good – Moss.

In short I believe KO’s 40 yr percentage will improve this season thanks to better receivers/coaching.

Just my take on it.

13-3 baby!

by Five Peace on Jun 23, 2009 7:31 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey FP

thanks for jumping right in, looking forward to seeing more from you in the future.

I think you’re absolutely right, I think the deep ball throw is something that can be developed. Plus, I see Orton and a quarterback like Jay Cutler to be two distinctly different styles of qb. To use a baseball analogy (if I’m allowed to do that on a football blog ;-p): Cutler is a fastball, power pitcher while Orton is a finesse, placement type. Each has it’s advantages and disadvantages, and each can develop a more balanced repertoire.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 23, 2009 8:22 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take finesse over the fastball

While both styles are effective and have their place. I think you keep the defenders (batters if you will) guessing and off balance with the finesse approach.

by bchiper on Jun 23, 2009 4:56 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

yep yep

the poor defenders’ heads will be spinning trying to figure out who he’s going to throw to next. :D

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 23, 2009 5:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't anybody believe McDaniels won't have Kyle throw through a tight hole on the move at long distances.

And he will be doing it until he becomes comfortable with it. Some of these teams practice methods just blow me away. I read an article about Roy Williams yesterday, and he was saying he never did a weight training program even with the Lions. I just can’t believe they would let an athlete play on his God given talent. Back to Kyle, I don’t know how his conditioning was in Chicago, but those methods are thrown out the door with McDaniels. Good to see you five peace.

by bfree2bronc on Jun 23, 2009 9:16 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right on FP!

Working with real NFL quality receivers(and the same ones) will help Kyle improve on his accuracy. you are spot on about Brady and Moss. Tom Brady frequently underthrows Moss. Moss has the ability to go up and take the ball away from DBs.

by rocko1 on Jun 23, 2009 9:45 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Logic Problem is That

Unless I had bouts of temporary coma over the last few years is that Cutler didn’t set the world on fire with deep ball accuracy. He tried a lot…but with very little success. He’s has benefited as much from Y.A.C as any QB in the league right now.

The dude is extremely talented and will probably be great. Its the revisionist history that I can’t deal with.

by PredominantlyOrange on Jun 23, 2009 11:39 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great point on YAC

… which coincidentally is what I want to do every time I hear Cutler’s name these days. ;-)

But how many times did we see Royal, Scheffler, or Marshall turn a short pass into a long long gain?

by ShawnDenver on Jun 23, 2009 1:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

ditto what sd said

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 23, 2009 1:41 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Royal beating a DB TWICE on the same play comes to mind

by AllBroncsallday on Jun 23, 2009 2:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Long ball

Cutler threw deep (over 20 yards) 80 times for a 33.8% completion rate, 10.0% TDs and 8.75% INTs for 11.80 YPC and with a 76.3 QB rating. Just since we’re talking about it.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jun 23, 2009 8:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

just out of curiosity bb

do you have those same stats for Orton?

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 23, 2009 8:38 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

Courtesy of nycbroncosfan, as usual, Orton, 57 throws, 31.6%, 8.93 YAC 2.33% TDs, 3.49% INTs and 56 QB rating. Not as good as Cutlers, but a substantially lower INT rating, as usual. Sacks were not listed, but on every down and distance they were quite a bit higher. Chi also has thrown a short game rather than a deep game for decades, so the shorter numbers of YAC make sense even though the completion % is nearly the same. He’s not as efficient on the long ball – that’s always been Cutler’s strength. Better receivers matter as well, as does the O line. the receivers need to get loose, the line needs to hold and neither happened that often.

There’s another issue, and this has nothing to do with the skills of either (Cutler’s arm strength comes out here and no one should say different). In studying Walsh and some other theorists, it’s been constantly hammered home that incessant repetition is essential for those plays to work. Chicago works far more on the short game, and last year Denver was working hard on the passing game. Orton’s numbers, even with better receivers and a better line, wasn’t likely to be as good since that’s Cutler’s strength. However – to do as well as he could, Orton would have to be working on timing patterns for those passes, 5 step drop, count silently, throw, X number of steps, Y spot of reception. It’s intense, and at times under-worked.

The ability to see someone getting open and just throw it also comes in, certainly, but to increase efficiency the above factors need to come in.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jun 23, 2009 10:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

YPC/YAC

Are these the same? Also, what does TDs mean? Is that percentage of touchdowns thrown when attempting to pass? I tried confirming the stats at http://www.pro-football-reference.com and didn’t have any luck.

by Endzone on Jun 23, 2009 11:16 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks for jumping in

YPC = yards per catch; which is usually the total passing yards divided by the number of completions.

YAC= yards after the catch; which is the yards the receiver traveled after catching the ball, and is considered part of the quarterback’s total yardage (if I’m not mistaken).

TD=touchdown; as it’s being used above it reflects the percentage of completions over 20 yards that resulted in a touchdown.

hope that helps.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 23, 2009 11:30 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

That does help.

I’m still a little shaky on comparing the statistics with nfl.com stats and pro-football-reference stats. Neither place has a YAC stat column under quarterbacks. They both have “AVG” for what I think you are calling YPC.

by Endzone on Jun 24, 2009 12:52 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

to find YAC

you’d have to look at each of the team’s receivers; I believe that one of those two sites has that as a column (but then, my memory sometimes betrays me LOL)

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 24, 2009 1:13 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

oops hit return too soon

find the YAC for each of the qb’s receivers, add those figures up, then subtract it from the qb’s yardage. For YAC on the longest pass in a season, you’d have to go to a play by play of each game & find that specific pass.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 24, 2009 1:14 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wrong Place?

Sorry. I just can’t find YAC on either nfl or pro football reference. I’m hoping there’s another site I don’t know about that you guys are using.

by Endzone on Jun 24, 2009 1:33 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

hosted.stats.com

I know that various other sites are used as well.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jun 24, 2009 9:21 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great!

That site has a lot of the info.

by Endzone on Jun 24, 2009 9:48 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

nfl.com stats show cutler with 55 +20 and 7 +40 attempts. That doesn’t add up to 80 attempts, so I’m a little confused there. Also Orton attempted 34 +20 and 3 +40.

Finishing my Curious Too post completion percentages related to long balls: Cutler 16.15%, Orton 13.60%, Best (Jake DelHomme) 21.95% followed by Jamarcus Russell at 21.72%; Worst (Ryan Fitzpatrick) 7.24% preceded by Jason Campbell 11.75%. Median value is 15.52% of 32 quarterbacks.

I also noted that nfl.com uses a different ranking than you posted for each quarterback. I think nfl.com uses the standard definition (see Wikipedia "Passer Rating). Cutler is rated at 86.0 and Orton at 79.6 So once again my curiosity is piqued where you and nycbroncosfan find these cool statistics.

Median longest pass: 71 yards. Orton’s longest was 65; Cutler’s was 93; League’s longest was Gus Frerotte at 99 yards.

Anyway, I enjoy statistics but sometimes think Gruden was right when he said “statistics are for losers.” It’s like calculating value using objective facts (such as comparable sales) and subjective opinion (such as using a capitalization rate) to come up with an opinion. We may be all working off the same objective facts but using different subjective factors can radically change the ultimate opinion. Which would you rather have? A stream of income of $300 per month for 10 years capitalized at 5% or at 3%? Emotionally you’ll pick the 5%, but you’ll get more present value if you pick the 3%.

My approach seems to be that if a player meets certain measurable statistics, then the question becomes more intangible regarding the player and more specific about the team and their opponents. On paper we have a much better team on offense and defense than the Bears. Not special teams, but that’s another story. Orton clearly meets my metrics and the intangibles for Orton makes me feel is he a substantial improvement over Cutler and will succeed with the Broncos.

by Endzone on Jun 23, 2009 10:53 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

agree and disagree

I’m not sure I agree with Gruden that statistics are for losers, they do have a function in analyzing tendencies and patterns.

But I agree that statistics are more about how a team performed than how an individual has performed. As has repeatedly appeared in comparisons of Cutler and Orton, individual statistics ignore the complexity of a football play which requires 11 guys all doing the right thing at the same time for the greatest success, and to a lesser degree, you have to factor in what the defense was doing (or not doing) at the same time. Until someone finds a definitive way to quantify all of that, I’m not sure that you can really make a case that one player is better than another, based on statistics alone.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 23, 2009 11:36 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gruden

is given to hyperbole. I cannot imagine discarding statistics. But I have seen far too many instances were statistical analysis used incorrect data, inadequately researched or applied formulae, and both well intentioned and bad intentioned application to arrive at faulty conclusions. GIGO So sometimes I blithely ignore them, statistically sometimes to my benefit and sometimes to my detriment.

by Endzone on Jun 24, 2009 1:03 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

know the feeling

I once heard it said that you can use statistics to prove any point of view.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 24, 2009 1:15 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Curious Too

I’d really like to find out where you get your cool statistics.

BTW, using NFL.com stats, Drew Brees led the league with 16 +40 attempts, Cutler had 7 and Orton had 3 (in his shortened season). Highest overall ranked quarterback was Philip Rivers who attempted 12 +40. Lowest ranked attempted was David Garrard with 1. Jake Delhomme and Jamarcus Russell had the best overall completion percentage calculated by adding all +20 attempts and dividing by total number of completions (including under 20/yd attempts).

by Endzone on Jun 23, 2009 10:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I misunderstood 'long ball'

When I think deep or long, I’m talking the 40+… always thought of 20 as mid.

That’s one of the things I love about MHR. Always learning.

by PredominantlyOrange on Jun 23, 2009 11:44 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm in the same boat with you

I typically think of long ball as 40+ also, but from what I’ve been reading, it seems that the deep ball tends to be the exception rather than the rule. Most of the M(B)SM pundits keep saying that you need a long ball threat to force the defense to back up. Orton’s proved that he can do that.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 24, 2009 12:52 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

21+ was the correct stat

deep balls were broken out that way. Knowing nyc, I can assure you – he drew from multiple sources, and he’s almost certainly right. It’s possible that I could mis-read his charts – YPA was the correct notation – my dyslexia kicks in at times – but as to the rest- don’t bet the farm.

BTW, using NFL.com stats, Drew Brees led the league with 16 +40 attempts, Cutler had 7 and Orton had 3 (in his shortened season)…Median longest pass: 71 yards. Orton’s longest was 65; Cutler’s was 93; League’s longest was Gus Frerotte at 99 yards.

I’m curious – what does that mean? Is a longest, mean, or median pass? No one threw a longest median pass at 99 yards unless they threw the rest over 100, which seems unlikely, so that’s just the ongest completion. Cutler’s median longest is 93? Umm, that would mean that many were longer. I believe that his longest – to Eddie Royal – was 93.

It’s fine to not understand some stats – most of us don’t. Throwing the baby out with the bath water isn’t helpful, though. There is now a formula, nyc told me (I believe that it’s on nfl.com although he uses pro-football-reference-, hosted.stats.com and others), that you can fill out to get the QB rating in any given set of situations. That’s both helpful and available, for example. Sack percentage, INT percentage, TD percentage (that’s just touchdown percentage, of course) are all pretty normal stats.

When you say that stats are for losers, you’re really saying ‘I don’t understand stats’, which is fine. I understand some, less so on others.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jun 24, 2009 9:35 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Welcome 5 Peace

Stay awhile, you will enjoy it here.

"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra

by KaptainKirk on Jun 23, 2009 8:09 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

40 yards downfield

A more telling statistic would be completion rates for passes beyond 40 yards. The problem with Orton in Chicago was that to complete a pass like that, he had to wait for the receiver to get open downfield. Usually by the time a WR got 25 yards downfield, Kyle was either under a pile of defensive linemen or running for his life.

by Velveeta on Jun 23, 2009 9:50 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Usually by the time a WR got 25 yards downfield, Kyle was either under a pile of defensive linemen or running for his life.

And running for his life was made much more difficult after the ankle injury about week 7.

Take my advice... I'm not using it!
Just click your heels together three times and say, "There's no player like Hillis... there's no player like Hillis."

by BroncTastic on Jun 23, 2009 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stupid Question

Which ankle did Orton hurt and how severe was it?

by Endzone on Jun 23, 2009 12:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right ankle

Very severe high ankle. Happened in the Lions game on a freakish play. I just assumed it was broken after seeing the replays. He was originally supposed to be out 3 to 4 weeks, but ended up just missing one game.

by rocko1 on Jun 23, 2009 2:35 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're proving to be an invaluable resource here on MHR, rocko

glad to have you!

There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.

by Jeremy Bolander on Jun 24, 2009 1:53 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

I should have checked first. It was a high right ankle sprain. NOTE: His throwing ankle!!! He had to be taken off the field on a cart. He did not have surgery. He was back on the field in a month, even though most treatment calls for 6 weeks to recover.

by Endzone on Jun 23, 2009 12:08 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

You should have seen him limping back to the huddle for several games

As gutsy as anything I’ve seen in a while.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jun 23, 2009 3:14 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gutsy?

Yes, but hmmm. Back in one game? Hmmmm!!! That sounds suspiciously like going back to playing before it was fully healed. Love the gutsy part, but I’m suspicious of the Bears’ medical staff and coaches.

by Endzone on Jun 23, 2009 3:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was Orton's decision

on when to come back. He had to have a special supportive boot made to give him stability. Everyone new he was playing hurt. He had to know his stats would suffer, but winning ruled the day. Grossman was the backup and looked absolutely terrible in the one game Orton was out. Orton playing hurt was the Bears’ best chance.

by rocko1 on Jun 23, 2009 8:00 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Winning ruled the way...

McDaniels saw something in this kid to make him believe he could be a play maker for this team.

by bfree2bronc on Jun 23, 2009 10:00 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's crazy to say that any NFL QB "can't" throw beyond 40 yards.

You could say that they lose accuracy on balls thrown beyond 40 yards, but they all certainly have the arm strength to throw it that far. I would bet a vital organ that there is not one single QB on an NFL roster (practice squad included) that physically can’t throw farther than 40 yards. KO’s arm is fine.

Have a good time all the time...that's my motto. - Viv Savage

by TD4HOF on Jun 23, 2009 5:44 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

excellent point

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 23, 2009 7:51 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point...

I’m 52 and play in a Sr. flag football league and I can throw 40 yards….ok maybe it was 35… but my arm is definitely stronger than Elway’s and Favre’s…. Janet and Deanna can’t chuck it past 20.

"as in football so in life"

by asinsoin on Jun 25, 2009 8:03 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

I’m 50 & can chuck a football about 30 yards (with a strong following wind) but I can almost always hit whatever I’m aiming at in the 0-25 yard range.

Hmmmmm . . . .maybe that’s why I’m not so impressed with cannon arms.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Jun 25, 2009 8:07 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Me either B but you know what they say...

CHICKS DIG THE LONG BALL!!!! no offense to any women out there.

"as in football so in life"

by asinsoin on Jun 25, 2009 11:15 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

rofl

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Jun 25, 2009 11:33 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

O Line

While I believe that KO will prove to be a better player than the MSM project, I believe that next year the O Line will see a slight deteriation in their performance. My reasoning for this is that KO does not appear to be as mobile as JC, and this will increase the number of sacks given up.

On the plus side, KO has a better O Line to work behind, so he will gain some extra time in the pocket. From reading other posts on MHR, I understand that KO is better than JC at going through his progressions, so he may not hold onto the ball as long as JC sometimes did waiting for BM to get open!!!!!

KO also has a better group of receivers(including TE and hopefully RB) available to him than he had in Chicago. I believe that he will be suited to the short passing game that the Patriots (McD) uses because he had to perform a similar role in Chicago. I am hoping that Eddie becomes the Patriots Welker in terms of productivity and value to the team, particularly with his YAC abilities.

Also the Broncos running game should be improved on last season, with a more balanced offensive philosophy, and this may cause the oposition defense to pause for thought before constantly blitzing the QB knowing he was going to pass the ball.

It all looks good for the future, even if the W-L column does not imrpove significantly next season because of our tough schedule

by CockneyBronco on Jun 25, 2009 2:15 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

As long as they play hard I won't fault them if they lose this year,

especially with all the transactions that have transpired. It would be nice to see Marshall, Royal, Gaffney, Hillis, Moreno, and Sheffler on the field at the same time. The confusion would be tremendous.

by bfree2bronc on Jun 25, 2009 7:30 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

amen to that b2b

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 25, 2009 7:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

On any given Sunday

I tend to be of the opinion that we have been put so far below the radar by everybody else, that we’re going to stun a lot of people, particularly in the 1st half of the season, and by the 2nd half, we will have had a tremendous amount of time to truly gel as a team, so we’ll surprise some more people.

13-3 Baby!!!!!
Living in La La Land and Lovin’ It.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

by BShrout on Jun 25, 2009 7:50 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs