I just mentioned it as a conversation starter, because at first glance it’s the most obvious explanation even if not the most plausible when you think about it. I think some of the other things you listed are relevant, especially scripted plays for the first few series explaining his high early numbers, and an ultra-conservative offense when protecting a lead his low numbers afterwards.

all the way down to…

This is all spitballing of course.

That’d be my analysis knowing full well that there are a billion variables at play that can’t be quantified without ALL sorts of missing information. But I’d bet that in close games, in the second half, Orton mostly threw on obvious passing downs, which amps up the degree of difficulty considerably. With a more dynamic and balanced attack, Orton should get to make more higher percentage throws throughout the duration of a game.

but didn’t have a good per-carry average. If they were protecting a lead I imagine they got super-conservative, with the average series being two running plays stuffed at the line of scrimmage, then a passing third down with the other team teeing off on the quarterback. I suspect a “prevent” offense is as ineffective as a prevent defense often is, especially if the line can’t keep the QB upright in obvious passing situations. I notice Orton’s sack percentage in the first half (sacks divided by attempts plus sacks?) was even higher at 5.95. Where did you find the sack percentage against the blitz? How much worse than average are those figures? I think this team has been well-designed to get a quick lead and then pound the ball, with short passes thrown in to keep the defense off-balance.

he disgraced the team and hisself. The Pro Bowl is an honor that alot of players are not afforded, and to portray himself in such a manner was pure me first, the heck with the organization, and to heck with the fans. That was one of the several reasons I am glad he is gone. I have no respect for an athlete who feels we the fans owe him a dept of gratitude. Good luck Chicago in morgaging the house for the payments might be hard to swallow when the quarterback economy starts to go in the tank.

Plus I think more partying was going on than football.
It will be interesting how the Bears O line performs. Week 3 in the pre season will be interesting to see where our D stands as well.

He was really hung over ;)

as you suggest. As I mentioned above I doubt arm strength/endurance is relevant. I just threw it out to get the ball rolling. I think our o-line and receiving corps, including our pass-catching running backs, is going to transfer to Orton the advantage Cutler had last year. Right on about the pro bowl. Placed on a level playing field, with the same talent the other QBs had, he was nothing special.

Protecting a lead implies you are running the ball more. Wouldn’t that open up passing opportunities making it more likely that a pass would succeed? If true, that should increase the percentages.

A prevent offense is as ineffective as a prevent defense. Interesting about preparing for the first few series and then not making effective counter adjustments. I guess when offense isn’t your forte you’re not going to be very good at making adjustments, either. I think one of the hardest to when playing with a lead is continuing to do the same things that got you the lead in the first place. That means not only in play calling, which I think was a definite Bears limitation in that situation, but also the offensive line cranking up its intensity to match the desperation of the other team’s line. Otherwise the runs will get stuffed, the QB will have to pass, and the team trying to come from behind will keep getting the ball back on three and outs. Thanks for your input.

Adding those turnover stats brings another instructive element. Cutler had more interceptions even with a superior OLine and better receivers. I don’t know the reasons for Orton’s picks, but I think Cutler’s were mainly because he was focusing too much on Marshall AND he would try to force a ball somewhere it didn’t belong.

Correct me if I’m wrong (seriously) but in McD’s system, it’s throw the ball quickly (most of the time) isn’t it?

I think there are two fixes for this. One, with our o-line he can afford to hold it longer. Two, McDaniels’ coaching and schemes will help him make decisions quicker. In broncobear‘s Peyton Hillis, Hands and History he refers to "the emphasis that Walsh placed on reducing the number of decisions that the quarterback made. . . . When Walsh’s QB came up to the line of scrimmage he might have 5 receivers on the field, but he will already have chosen which side of the field he is going to throw to, reducing the number of options to 3 – a primary, secondary and an outlet receiver." And he goes on to show how his pre-snap read could reduce those options to two. Given what he did with Cassell I think it’s reasonable to suppose that what he did with him and is doing with Orton is comparable and that Orton will flourish as a result. While I think he’s capable of making any quarterback better, including Cutler, I think he saw in Orton someone who could especially benefit from his teaching and system. I think a lot of teams are going to be stunned by what Denver’s “ruined” offense does to them.

Since he played half his games at Soldier Field the second half conditions there might well have had a disproportionate effect on his overall stats.

and you’re probably right that playing the second half of the season hurt didn’t help his stats. I doubt, however, that it affected the pattern of a fast start and drop off, for which a number of plausible explanations have been advanced. I definitely think his o-line was prone to being overpowered, especially in the obvious passing situations that a very conservative offense will tend to find itself in. And yes, It’s conceivable that his receivers got less effective as the game wore on, altho we have no way of knowing for sure. Certainly their overall lack of talent must have hurt his stats, because it’s hard to fit the ball in when the receiver can’t get much separation.

there’s a lot of interesting articles here.

I have to get some zzz’s before going to work so don’t have time to give this much thought. It apparently debunks the notion that he benefitted from a great YAC, although it doesn’t immediately clarify why he didn’t. My impression is that a lot of his completions were to a receiver who had stopped and planted, with the ball rocketing into his body before the defenders could react. No YAC on such plays. Plays which did have a large YAC component often had Scheffler getting open behind the defense and continuing downfield after making the reception. I don’t recall seeing him throw many slants in which he hit the receiver in stride leading to a long YAC gain. One of the longest YAC plays for the Broncos was the 93-yard TD in the Cleveland game, but that was also one of Cutler’s worst passes. I think a lot of Cutler’s air yards were due to him being able to throw to a spot 10 to 20 yards downfield with tremendous velocity and accuracy. Although he doesn’t go through his progressions well he might be the best kind of quarterback for a receiver corps that doesn’t do a good job of getting open. It’s conceivable that both Cutler and Orton are the better quarterback for the team they ended up with.

but it would be the blind leading the blind. Were you wanting to post them to this thread? I’d think a jpg would work.

into MS Word, then using the Word icon on the post import it into your post..

to throwing against the prevent defenses of opponents protecting leads. Of course, it might be that he’s just good under pressure, but his red zone and two-minute ratings suggest otherwise.

I think you’ve highlighted several interesting anomalies and these can be entertaining to discuss. I know from other posts of yours that you are well aware that there’s so much that just isn’t reflected in statistics. At some point we just have to see what shows up on the field.

If you’ve got access to NFL Rewind, watch the Philly game. Note the 1st half vs the second. Then pick a few games at random, try for one where they are up 6 or 7 points at the half. Rocko noticed something and I checked it when he made mention. Do you recall the bizarre dropping of a successful rushing attack by Jeremy Bates at frequent points in the season last year? That was Ron Turner and the Bears. Do not ask the Great and Powerful Oz…he doesn’t know either.

Oh, I understand using the WCO (and the Bears sort of run a variant) and the idea of gaining a lead and counting on defense and running. But I also understand that when your team is doing something successfully, you don’t let your foot off the opponents’ necks.

but in a different way. Cutler can rocket the ball into a tiny space better than almost anyone, but I think Orton will be better at leading the receiver and steering him into a running lane on short and medium crossing patterns. I’m not sure how their accuracy differs on long passes, but I think Orton is likely to be better at throwing a high arcing ball that settles into a receiver’s hands, while Cutler doesn’t seem to be as accurate when putting air under the ball but can throw an accurate frozen rope much deeper than most QB’s. That kind of pass, however, is the kind the DB can cut underneath and pick off, since it doesn’t drop in over his head. A telling indicator of each QB’s risk vs reward tendencies is their TD-INT ratio on their own side of the 50, 2-5 for Orton and 2-13 for Cutler. What that shows me is that Cutler isn’t just high risk-high reward, but often high risk-low reward. He gambles on giving up a TD or putting his defense’s back to the wall just to get a first down. He does have a much higher first down percentage inside his own 20, something like 32.5 to 20, but his TD-INT ratio is 1-6 vs Orton’s 0-1. Even a high-risk high-reward strategy is less effective than a minimize mistakes approach, but if you take unnecessary risks you might as well mail in the losses. All of the apologists’ references to how he was hamstrung by a weak defense fail to note how often he hamstrung his own defense rather than protect it. Deep in your own territory it’s smarter to play it safe and then punt rather than risk everything just to get 10 yards farther from your own goal line.