I’m down with your message, Kdo09. I also like the table comparing Rivers and Orton. I plan on using this information the next time my Oakland Raider fan bugs me about our new QB. He didn’t like me bringing up the won lost records of Orton and Cutler, maybe he’ll appreciate this more.

Rec’d

I especially liked the Rivers/Orton comparison as well. Why would any professional analyst suggest that the Bronco offense will be worse this season? Cutler vs. Orton on arm talent alone (shallow), Shanahan vs McD on track record of NFL accomplishments (dated) and the need during this evidence-less time of year to go negative on somebody as an analyst can’t go positive on everyone and the Broncs are an inviting target. Relax! Just walk around with that sly knowing smile.

I think Rivers shaded Jay as best QB in the AFC West….due ti being clutch when needed.
Rec’d.

In a word NO!

rec’d for great analysis. Thanks for pointing these things out. This quote from above, IMHO, sums up why everyone thought our offense was so great:

blinded by the incredible arm, the fantasy production and all those beautiful yards.

Fans in general, and the M(B)SM in particular use a Fantasy Football view of offense. In FF, the largest factor is on yards (which also happens to be the way the NFL chooses to rank offenses). It’s simple, easy to measure, and usually fails to be an accurate measure of the effectiveness of an offense.

You broke down the numbers to clearly show how JC (too funny with the initials) is over-rated and Orton is under-rated. I for one and very much looking forward to what Orton can do this year.

Great work and thanks for the reference to my post on the McD, Bowlen interview. I think McD really came to show Bowlen how the O was not as strong as everyone thought and accepted it to be.

But your work is clear, makes sense, and pursuasive.

Very, very rec’d!

I’m sitting here with a big smile because the more I hear from our new coach the more I feal like we will surprise a lot of people this year. Rec’d

I share your frustration.

I’m writing this because I’m frustrated. Not with anyone here at MHR or the conversation on Orton, but with the focus of the comparisons/criticism/outlook. … But, the only REASONS given are #1. Losing Jay Cutler and #2. Losing Mike Shanahan.

Zealots on both sides of the Jay Cutler issue annoy me. Yet the comparisons with Orton and between the Broncos and Bears are useful. I really like that you’ve added comparisons with the Chargers. Could you add the Broncos receiving corps stats ?

Was our offense broken? They were competitive but could have been, and in my opinion will be, better. Replacing Shanahan with McDaniels? Look at the Tom Brady stats. The point is that the McDaniels offensive system worked better than Shanahans. Bates was predictable and RB’s too fragile. Who have we lost on the offense other than Shanahan, Bates, and Cutler? Selvin Young couldn’t pass the physical. We replaced some other RB’s with proven and experienced RB’s. We drafted a stud RB. All the other players and coaches stayed. (Well, we’ll see how the Marshall drama works out.) All in all I am also puzzled why anyone would suggest our offense is broken other than their belief that #1 Cutler is God and #2 Shanahan still is “The Mastermind.”

I’ve taken the high road and just ignored the ignorant.

It is impossible to defeat an ignorant man in argument. ~William G. McAdoo

That’s a comparison I’ve never seen, and it really is fascinating – nice job there.

Would have liked the whole thing better without the random trashing of Cutler at the end. First off, I wouldn’t call him “Far and Away” the least impressive of that group – the last 3 seasons you have on the chart are very similar. Those are also all much more established QBs than Jay. And every one there is a Pro Bowl QB – hardly a shabby group to be considered with any way you choose to spin numbers. I know Cutler isn’t a Bronco anymore, but while he may have been over-rated based on potential rather than production, he is by no means suddenly a terrible QB just because he acted like a baby and went to another team.

They went 11-5 and made all the way to the AFC Championship game. I wonder….

and that the Broncos are worse without him, but then went on to project him to throw 23td and 18int. ??? I am thru reading bullcrap…luckily I get things like this post to read. Thanks man! :)

Obviously as a Bronco fan I want him to succeed. And as a bitter ex-Cutler fan I want Jay to be mediocre or fall into a Jeff George type career death spiral. Screw the best wishes and/or good luck, I hold a grudge. :)

Anyways, like I said, I’m cautionsly optimistic about Orton for the illustrated reasons above (well done and rec’d) as well as:

1) His leadership abilities in Chicago and Purdue
2) His extremely impressive college resume and production (in a spread offense no less)
3) His game management ability and win/ loss record in the NFL
4) Work ethic to grasp the new system and be a quality NFL QB (can’t teach that)
5) Ability to read defenses pre and post snap (extremely important)

I think when you combine those attributes with a top tier offensive line, TEs, and WRs you will be productive and win a lot of games. Throw in a little Knowshon and Hillis with a determined and disciplined QB (Orton) you have an extremely dangerous Offense. Sprinkle in McD’s scheme and the sky is the limit.

Go Broncos!

I am just waiting for the season to begin and then end. I am excited to compare the 2009 Broncos to the 2008 Broncos, the 2009 Broncos to the 2009 Bears and in particular Orton 2009 to Cutler 2008 & 2009!

After that we will know who is right, the MSM or we @ MHR…

you have to give jay credit, he was only 3 years in the NFL, the rest of the group were twice the tenure. Play calling probably was one of the big problems for the offense last year, calling the same plays over and over. jay’s first look to Marshall probably had a lot to do with it too. Bottom line is jay could have gotten better IMO with the coaching at hand, but he is not here and will play with Ron Turners playbook. I have a feeling Kyle Pee’d his pants when he found out he got promoted to the Broncos (no offense Bears fans), and was jumping for joy. Who wouldn’t with Royal, Marshall, Scheffler, Stokely, Hillis, Graham, and now, Moreno. Wow. The blessing have bestowed that young man, and he better take advantage of it while he can. Great Post Kdo09. Oh yeah, that was my post “What In The World Was Pat Thinking”, and I have a sneaking suspicion he may have come right out with that dialog, and diametrically speaking, it was totally necessary.

Thanks for the great post!

Thanks for the info. I like your slant on this thing.

I’ll be honest. I really was disappointed when Cutler left. I had just won my fantasy league with him as my QB ($3,600 yeah baby!) and bought his jersey. He was so exciting to watch that it’s tough to let him go. However…
I’ve got to say you guys have really shown me the light. The more numbers I see and the more I learn about McD and his system, I have to believe that this was a good trade. Cutler was not a “check down” QB which is required in McD’s system. Yes, the kid is talented, no doubt, but talent alone do not score TDs, as we all saw last year and in your numbers Kd. I for one can’t wait for KO to show what he can do in McD’s system. Imagine the 2007 Patriots(they went 16-0 for those not keeping track) with a better O-line, better RB’s, maybe a slightly worse defense, and that’s the 2009 Broncos. I for one am pumped up for this year. Anything less than a 10-6 season would surprise me. Pass the Kool Aid, shots on me.

You guys all rock. I appreciate all the kind words and am glad if …..anyone was able to glean a little from my thoughts. It’s still a bit hard for me to understand WHY Cutler wouldn’t want to play in McDs system. I truly have very little ill-will towards the guy. Anyways, Thanks Again for listening to my “vent”.

Rec’d!

Great analysis and comparisons, the obvious favorite is with Phyllis and KO.

As most have mentioned I concur the info is logical and comprehensive.
Received – thanks!

Endzone, browse for the image on the internet, double-click the image to view it’s path, copy the entire link, and go back to the post. Click the image link (tree) and paste the copied link into that text box.

That’s it.

I think JC will be better in Chicago than he would have been in Denver. He out himself in a situation that if he doesn’t correct his bad tendencies then he makes McD look like a genius. To JC that would be worse than death. He would not have had as much incentive to work on these areas if he stayed in Denver. I think Denver will be better because if Denver fails to do well MSM will paint McD as the biggest idiot since Adam ate the fruit. But if McD succeeds without JC, he will look like the greatest genious since Einstein. 6 wins or less he’s an idiot. 10 wins or more he’s a genious. 7-9 the debate will continue for at least another year.

I’m going to try to upload these pics. First time for everything!

The first shows Hall of Fame Quarterback stats, courtesy of the NFL Hall of Fame

The second shows 2006 through 2008 top rated QB’s, courtesy of nfl.com stats

Of course, you have to factor in that the HOF guys stats are for their entire careers and the QB Leaders stats are for only one year.

Bottom Line:
Pass Completions: HOF 57.71% QB Leaders 64.79%
Rating HOF 81.4 QB Leaders 99.7

Therefore, extrapolating these numbers, if a QB performs in the current game/year above 60% completions and an 89 rating, that is statistically one very good quarterback.

Orton’s career stats are 55.3% and rating is 71.1
Cutlers career stats are 62.5% and rating is 87.1

I’m not suddenly becoming an apologist for Cutler. Obviously statistics don’t tell the whole story. It may be Polyannish, but I think Orton will exceed all expectations here in Denver because of our superior OLine, receivers and revamped RB corps.

No time to comment, but thanks for the excellent breakdown!