Bears/Broncos Follow up Data

by Kdo09 on Jun 26, 2009 9:23 AM MDT Comment 19 comments

Nothing serious here folks. Just a bit of follow up data inquired about in my previous FanPost. My comment was that the Bears Offense actually outperformed the Broncos Offense based on the Total Points scored. Bears 375 and Broncos 370.

There were a handful of comments stating that those numbers were off because they didn't take into account the Special Teams and Defensive points that contributed to those numbers. Then we had trouble definitively finding those numbers. Well, here they are and yes that did affect the outcome. The Broncos Offense DID outperform the Bears Offense. Bears 345 and Broncos 356. I think my point remains the same, however, that based on the yards of offense and points per game, the Bears Offense (Orton/Smith) was FAR more efficient/effective than the Broncos (Cutler/Shanahan).

Bears- 23.4 Pt/Game and 295 yrds/Game

Broncos- 23.1 Pt/Game and 395 yrds/Game

Lastly, there were also some inquiries as to how drastic a difference there was in starting field position. I broke that down as well.

	Bears		Broncos
Week	Starting position	ST/D Pts	Starting position	ST/D Pts
1	31	9	28
2	23		28
3	29		27	7
4	37		27
5	34	7	22
6	30		35
7	41	7	21
8	BYE		BYE
9	33		26
10	20		25
11	25		33
12	39		19
13	32		26	7
14	40		15
15	30	7	25
16	39		24
17	34		26
Average	32 yrd line	30 pts	27 yrd line	14 pts

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

The idea that Hester had an effect on ST points is zero as well.

If I understand it right, Hester didn’t bring ONE kick or punt back for a TD last year. That’s something else to consider. Call it the Hester Curve.

Peyton Hillis is also referred to in early Greek mythology by his other names such as Zeus or Poseidon.

by Joe Medina on Jun 26, 2009 9:39 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Sitting Back.

I’m on the record saying this a while back and I’ll say it again for anyone that would like to drag this out whether it’s right or wrong:

Kyle Orton will have a better 2009-10 season than Jay Cutler if both remain healthy and their teams do as well.

"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999

by ejruiz on Jun 26, 2009 10:50 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I like this analysis, and I loved your previous post.

However, wasn’t Orton injured for a spell last season? Did you take into account only the games he played? Or are some of these Grossman’s numbers, too?

-Harvey J. Neptune

"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi

by HarvJNep2n on Jun 26, 2009 11:17 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

he played on a bum ankle in the 2nd half of the season

but only missed 1 full game & part of the game in which he was injured

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Jun 26, 2009 1:40 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the info. I was too lazy to find it myself.

LOL.

-Harvey J. Neptune

"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi

by HarvJNep2n on Jun 26, 2009 5:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

yds. per point

Chicago 1 point per 13.7 yards
Denver 1 point per 17.8 yards

by 3nS on Jun 26, 2009 11:18 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I wonder what Chicago's YAC were

I’m sure Forte got a bunch.

Denver WR’s (couldn’t find the back’s YAC #’s off hand) got about 1400 yards after they had caught a pass.

Eddie Royal 359
Brandon Marshall 439
Brandon Stokely 167
Tony Sheffler 206
Chad Jackson 21
Daniel Graham 202
Total 1394

Owning the Patriots since September 9, 1960

by Darin H on Jun 26, 2009 12:13 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

According to nycbroncosfan numbers

The Bears came in at 5.14 YAC per reception, Denver at 4.90

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jun 26, 2009 2:28 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

ejruiz is right in his analogy the Broncos are better, if they stay healthy.

That is one point that has been bothering me ever since the McDaniels/Cutler falling out. Jay IMHO could of had a great year this year in the system of McDaniels, and why he chose to beat the drum out of town is beyond me. The weapons he would of had here are far better than what he has up yonder. I believe, after hearing Jay’s statement the other that he wishes he would of got on board with McDaniels and the system. He will be faced with more adverse weather conditions in Chicago, he will be throwing to receivers that are of less quality, and even though Detroit going 0-16 last year, Jay faces a stronger Division IMO. The Packers should be better this year as well as the Vikings. Jay may choked the pooch as they say, in wanting out of Dodge (Denver).

by bfree2bronc on Jun 26, 2009 12:30 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the updated info.

I still maintain that offensive skill player continuity affects an offense’s efficiency in the red zone over the course of a season. We went through 18 RBs last year. How might that lack of continuity affect scoring in the red zone. Perhaps it doesn’t affect things so much when moving up and down the field, outside of the red zone? Just a thought.

Additionally, another intangible factor that influences scoring, but is very difficult to measure, is the impact of the worst defense in the NFL in the past few decades on the psyche and decision making of a very young and relatively inexperienced QB like Cutler. How many interceptions or bad decisions are made each game, when the QB knows his defense is likely to let the other team score on the next possession? Conversely, what kind of decisions are made by an older and more experienced QB who has a much better defense? These sorts of factors, which DO impact scoring, are impossible to measure in a table.

by Broncos_FTW on Jun 26, 2009 1:39 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Normally I would say you are correct...

but our Redzone inefficiency was almost entirely attributable to turn-overs. It wasn’t failure to make plays; it was interceptions and fumbles in the redzone.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Jun 26, 2009 3:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s the interceptions and bad decisions that I address in the last paragraph. Physical mistakes can be accounted for by just being a lousy player. Mental mistakes are exacerbated by the issue in my last paragraph.

by Broncos_FTW on Jun 26, 2009 3:40 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

There may be something to it

but a great deal of the redzone mistakes occured when we were ahead or tied. There was a fanpost on this topic a few weeks ago.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Jun 26, 2009 4:36 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

This had nothing to do with the defense..

17 two minute possessions yielding just one field goal. 3 points, that was it.

Last quarter against Buffalo, two possessions. The first is an interception at the Buffalo two. The defense holds them to a 3 and out. Subsequent drive to a first and goal, then 4 straight incompletions.

That was the offense failing to take advantage of what they had and getting us into the playoffs. The defense played well enough to win that game.

by AlanC on Jun 27, 2009 3:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was interesting

There has been a slew of folks suggesting that the red zone had to do with the ‘poor’ running game. It just didn’t hold up to analysis – one of those things that sounded good and made perfect sense but just wasn’t accurate anyway. Errors, more than anything.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jun 26, 2009 5:28 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Our running game as a whole was not THAT bad last year.

We were ranked 12 with 1,862 yards for the season.

Curiously, the Bears who apparently have a “stronger running game” were at 24 with 1,673 yards.

Peyton Hillis is also referred to in early Greek mythology by his other names such as Zeus or Poseidon.

by Joe Medina on Jun 26, 2009 7:25 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Ironically enough

Chicago was ranked 14th in scoring with 375 points for the season and Denver was 16th with 370.

So if we’re going off that basis alone, Chicago was more effective both in and out of the red zone than we were. They only scored 5 more points than we did.

Peyton Hillis is also referred to in early Greek mythology by his other names such as Zeus or Poseidon.

by Joe Medina on Jun 26, 2009 7:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

But...

We were the number two ranked offense in terms of yardage. Chicago was something like 23rd. THAT was the failing of this offense last year and the year before that too. It was getting to be a trade mark.

by AlanC on Jun 27, 2009 3:30 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs