Horse Tracks 6/28/09 - Foxworth goes home

I will get to see Foxworth play against both the Broncos and the Bears this year. Both are a win/win. Interesting that the Ravens tend to fill holes a little differently than the Broncos and that they emphasize defense. Nolan has both Baltimore and Denver links.

So says Football Outsiders:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/fo-espn-feature-columns/2009/ei-25-most-overratedunderrated-players-decade

Overrated
1. DeShaun Foster
2. Michael Vick
3. Chris Chambers
4. Jamal Lewis
5. Adam Vinatieri
6. Reggie Bush
7. Ty Law
8. Stephen Alexander
9. Dante Hall
10. DeAngelo Hall

Underrated
1. Derrick Mason
2. Matt Lepsis
3. Adrian Wilson
4. Aaron Smith
5. Shaun O’Hara
6. Dan Koppen
7. Bobby Engram
8. Keith Bulluck
9. Shawn Springs
10. London Fletcher

And here’s a particularly interesting post in defense of Lepsis:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/fo-espn-feature-columns/2009/ei-25-most-overratedunderrated-players-decade#comment-708724

by Kibbles :: Sat, 06/27/2009 – 3:56pm

The fact that you think it’s clear that Lepsis was not better than Ogden and Roaf demonstrates just how underrated he was. The likely reason why you think it’s so clear is because the media spent so long telling us how good Ogden and Roaf were, and both luminaries made so many pro bowls and all pro teams, that we think they surely must have been head and shoulders above some no-name like Lepsis who never made a pro bowl. I know that Dr. Z, who actually breaks down game tape and grades offensive lineman, said that Matt Lepsis was better than Walter freaking Jones back in 2005, back when people were arguing that Jones was the best offensive player in the entire NFL (iirc, Lepsis and Nalen wound up grading out as the two highest-rated offensive linemen that season, and neither made the pro bowl).

To use a more statistical and less anecdotal argument… in 2005, Lepsis’s offensive line allowed a lower sack rate than Jones’s, Ogden’s, Roaf’s, or Pace’s, and RBs averaged more yards running to the left in Denver than anywhere but Indianapolis (despite Lepsis playing with Mike Anderson/Tatum Bell instead of Shaun Alexander, Jamal Lewis, Priest Holmes, and Steven Jackson). In 2004, Denver’s offensive line ranked 3rd in adjusted sack rate, rating ahead of Jones’s, Ogden’s, Roaf’s, or Pace’s, and RBs averaged more yards running to the left in Denver than anywhere else in the league (replacing Mike Anderson with Reuben Droughns in that RB list). In 2003, Lepsis’s line allowed a lower sack rate than Jones’s, Ogden’s, or Pace’s, although Roaf’s line finally beat out Lepsis’s. Denver also finished above Baltimore and St. Louis in yards running to the left, although KC and Seattle both beat Denver that year. That’s pretty forgivable, in my opinion, given that Matt Lepsis had never played left tackle in his entire football career prior to the 2003 season.

In 2002, when Lepsis was at Right Tackle, Denver ranked 2nd in the NFL on runs to the right… which isn’t that impressive, because Denver actually had a good RB that year and ranked in the top 4 no matter which direction they were running. In 2001, however, Denver didn’t rank higher than 12th in any direction… except on runs to the right, where they were second in the league.

Basically, Lepsis was near-elite in pass protection (just below Pace and Jones and on par with Roaf and Ogden, imo), and possibly the best run-blocker of the past decade (yes, over Roaf and Ogden, mostly because he was so far above everyone else in space, even if he lacked their raw power at the point of attack), and yet he never received so much as a pro bowl invitation. He had everything that the Ogdens, Roafs, Joneses, and Paces of the world had except for the pedigree and the recognition (and one could argue that the second usually follows the first). I honestly believe that if he’d been a top 10 draft pick coming out of college instead of an undrafted TE making the conversion to offensive line, we’d be talking about his hall of fame credentials right now instead of discussing how he never received so much as a single pro bowl invite.