Is the Broncos' Zone-Blocking Scheme Ineffective Near the Goal Line?
In Jon Tollerud's post, "Are We Supportive or Blind?", we got a bit off-topic and I suggested that the Broncos' Zone-Blocking scheme was limited near the goal line. Slow White Guy pointed me to a site that compiles interesting statistics that seemed to disprove my theory.
First, just let me say, SWG, I'd never heard of that site before, so thanks for the tip. I checked out the stats you referenced.
Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.
An interesting stat, but since it also includes runs outside the Red Zone, it doesn't perfectly capture my idea. And neither does the "Stuffed" stat, since it's completely independent of field position.
So I talked to one my interns, the lovely Jenny (who could be a supermodel, but wants to be a secret agent instead,) and explained my theory about the limitations of the zone-blocking scheme in the Red Zone. I asked her to do some research into the Broncos' outcomes in the Red Zone. Specifically, the Blood Red Zone - the 10-yard line and in.
My theory is that, because the Broncos' zone-blocking scheme requires more agile guards who tend to be undersized, they would have a hard time moving the line of scrimmage in short-yardage situations - particularly when the field has been shortened and the safeties can crowd the line of scrimmage.
In fact, this isn't the case - at least according to Jenny's research.
Last season, the Broncos had 33 events inside the Blood Red Zone. They turned the ball over 9% of the time. They kicked a field goal 21% of the time. They scored a touchdown 70% of the time. 36% of the time they scored a rushing TD. 33% of the time they passed for a touchdown.
Jenny limited her research to the Broncos, so I don't know how these numbers compare to league averages. Nevertheless, I think these numbers disprove my theory. It appears the Broncos were able to move the line scrimmage and "punch it in." I haven't looked at the roster of events myself, but Jenny said that many (the majority?) of the rushing TDs in the Blood Red Zone were scored by either Michael Pittman and Peyton Hillis - two bruisers.
The limitations of Jenny's research are that she screened for plays for which the last line of scrimmage (LOS) took place in the Blood Red Zone and then backplanned from there. So, let's say that the Broncos had a first down on the opponent's 17 yard line. On first down, they run for 2 yards to the 15. On second down, they run for 4 yards to the 9 yard line. Then they're facing 3rd and 4 from the opponents 9 yard line. This would be considered an event, since the last LOS was inside the Blood Red Zone.
Another limitation was that she included play sequences near the end of halves and games. So if the Broncos were forced to kick a FG on second down because there was only 2 seconds left in the half, that was an event.
Finally, keep in mind, Jenny's just an intern, and although she looks great on French Maid Friday (that's one of the fun, theme-based activities I've implemented to keep morale high - my favorite is Wet T-Shirt Tuesday), she's still developing her research skills.
Incidentally, if you're curious, Cutler was 15 for 34 for 75 yards in the Blood Red Zone. He threw for 11 touchdowns and - I believe - all 3 turnovers could be tied to him. The Broncos also had 30 rushing attempts for 75 yards, a 2.5 average.
I'm contemplating tasking Jenny or maybe one of my other interns to do additional research going farther back. Perhaps the additions of Pittman and Hillis, both of whom I'd consider "power backs," contributed to the Broncos' success last year. Or maybe my theory is wrong.
Your tax dollars at work.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
6 recs |
34 comments
Comments
LOL
Thanks AJ for that look at the inside the 10 stats.
Given the poor Red Zone record referenced in other posts, when compared to the stats you’ve presented, I’m left wondering what our stats look life between the 20 & the 10.
Love the humor you injected also.
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
by BShrout on Jun 9, 2009 8:27 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
don't thank me, thank Jenny
I’m off to stakeout a “gentleman’s club.” I’ve convinced my superiors that lots of ne’erdowells conduct unsavory business at these fine establishments. I love my job!
I won’t have my laptop (a man looking at a laptop at stripclub would be very suspicious).
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 9, 2009 8:52 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
btw
when do we get pictures of the french maid? LOL
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
by BShrout on Jun 9, 2009 9:02 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't say I'd deliver them LOL
Given the nature of the business, I’m not sure I can compromise her security by posting pictures of her in her maid outfit. By the way, today is Thong-Bikini Thursday.
Wednesday is the only day that the girls dress appropriately for work, because I can’t come up with any alliterative title for Wednesday. So they call it “Work Clothes Wednesday.” It sucks.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 11, 2009 7:06 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
depends on what you use the laptop for
you could be an addict after all…
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jun 9, 2009 11:55 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
btw
I’m picturing you as Bill Murray.
Hope you don’t mind…
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jun 9, 2009 11:56 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm the everyman.
My job requires me to not stand out in crowds. People look right through me.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 9, 2009 3:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks AJF...
I think you will find, based on common sense, that most teams had a high % of success inside the 10’s. I think the fact we had close to a 10% turnover in the 10’s is pretty pathetic IMO.
I, too, would also like to know our success between the 10 and 20. In a lot of ways, the “Boy Genius” Bates was forced to run the ball in the 10’s….but anecdotally we threw the ball a TON in the between the 10 -20 area, even when our running game was doing well. Bates seemed to have a problem, which was exacerbated by Cutler’s need to throw the ball vertically all the time, where we never “ground it out” between the 10 -20. Many times, the 3rd and ? was not manageable because we had thrown on the first 2 downs….instead of picking up 3 here, 3 there and having 3rd and 3 or less.
Thanks for the humor too…I voted for the French Maid outfit….AND THANK YOU JENNY!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
by boydy2669 on Jun 9, 2009 8:58 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
What seems frustrating to me...
Was the number of times that the Broncos had a 1st and goal inside the 10 and did not score or settled for a field goal.
I don’t have stats on it, but I have that burning feeling that it happened all too often.
Couple that with the most telling, to me, which is that out of 17 2 minute posessions last season, we had only one field goal to show for it.
I think your proposition may have been more true in past years when the line averaged in the area of 285 lbs and was the smallest in the NFL. I think the Broncos have managed to get a lot bigger now than they used to be.
The early talk of McDaniels blending Denver’s zone blocking with gap blocking and the use of different schemes in close may prove to be the remedy that would make us far more effective in the "bloof red " zone. (love that term by the way.)
Good post and good discussion.
"Now we have them where we want them"
-Kieth Bishop - On the Denver 2 yard line, Cleveland Ohio, 1987
by AlanC on Jun 9, 2009 9:07 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
could be
I don’t know about the 1st and 10 inside the 10. Shouldn’t be too difficult to find out.
I was surprised at how often the Broncos punched it in last year. Could be a function of the weight and power of the running backs.
I think you could be right about prior years. I haven’t asked Jenny to do any more work on this because she’s about to depart for some training. But maybe I could ask one of the others…
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 9, 2009 3:39 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think the zone blocking scheme is really that limiting
I think what you have to look at is who do we have running the ball and who is playing QB, giving the ball to guys like Tatum Bell and Selvin Young on the goal line is basically a losing proposition, you need guys who have a nose for the end zone and can work in tight places. I think you will see thatsome guys can excel at that Davis, Portis, Hillis, and some guys just aren’t that good at finding the gap or driving into the end zone. I would be curious what the rates are through Shanahan’s tenure has been, based on who was the RB and who was the QB. The other problem is if you have a QB that the oppossing team doesn’t respect, then they can stack the line and take away the run.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman
by Broncoman on Jun 9, 2009 1:56 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
changed over time
I still haven’t looked at the roster of events, only the report – actually the executive summary. Like I said originally, Pittman and Hillis scored most of the rushing touchdowns and, as you probably know, Pittman was hurt early on.
I don’t have any numbers to back this up, but it seemed like that, as the season progressed and our running back ranks thinned, we passed more in the Red Zone. I remember growing frustrated because our play-calling grew very predictable inside the 20s. But then, if you’re starting tailback is Tatum Bell…
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 9, 2009 3:43 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that the paly calling definately went away from the run late in the season
But once Hillis went down I really couldn’t blame them for going to a pass first mentality.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman
by Broncoman on Jun 9, 2009 5:28 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey! As much as we make fun of
Tatum… I thought he did an extremely admirable job for us at the end of last year… especially given how he had to be picked up from the mall kiosk!!!
Hurmph…
If you’re reading, Tatum, don’t mind these ingrates (j/k btw). Thanks for your service last year and here’s to hoping you resurrect your career!
lolz…
by tunga77 on Jun 10, 2009 8:51 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
surprising
Those stats are very surprising, I’d of thought it was alot worse as others have mentioned. Tell Jenny she is an asset to the firm.
what was the site SWG sent you to if I may ask?
sbhchawk
Here to drink the KoolAid poured by KO
by sbhchawk on Jun 9, 2009 4:01 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
site
It was either bigboobs.com or footballoutsiders.com. Methinks it was footballoutsiders.com. Very interesting site.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 9, 2009 4:57 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
bigboobs.com
is interesting too!
tell Jenny that was some nice analysis!
by SlowWhiteGuy on Jun 9, 2009 5:30 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
9%, really, 9%!
It sure seemed like a lot more than that.
BTW, is Jenny available for a Comprehensive Study? :-)
With the 12th pick, the Broncos select Knowshon Moreno - Roger Goodell
That'll move the chains - Andy Samberg
by KaptainKirk on Jun 9, 2009 8:32 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
that's a very probing question
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 11, 2009 7:08 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not directly addressing the points you brought up
but there is nothing inherent in a zoneblock, or ina zoneblock “suited” line that would make it trend towards finnesse or any other measure of being a bit underwhelming where it matters most: in the redzone.
The idea is that lighter agile palyers can be pushed around at the point of attack, but it just isn’t true. Lineplay is 90% technique, and zoneblockers are as likely as anyone to be very well versed in technique. they also benefit more from the players around them than iso-style blocking units, so you also gain a power in numbers aspect as well.
It comes down to individuals, as it always does. Zim and T.Jones and Stinky were all zoneblockers who were tough and mean and onery, adn the zoneblocking looked like it, even to teh extent of getting labelled fantastically filthy dirty. (ooh look! A can of worms!) As B-Man said above, the RB matters, and in Denver’s one-cut system the RB REALLY matters. Not in terms of pure talent (which is very helpful) but in their one-cut running skills, primarily: patience behind the line of scrimmage, vision at the line (ability to read the proper gap selection (our scheme creates options)), cutback timing and aggressiveness, and acceleration through the hole.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jun 10, 2009 1:13 AM MDT reply actions 2 recs
Bravo!
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jun 10, 2009 5:54 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
that could be
I’m as big a fan of Schlereth as there is. And I’ve always liked Zimmerman, even when he was a Viking. And those lines during the Super Bowl years were amazing. And, yes, they had Terrell Davis bursting through the slots they created.
But there was a period after the Super Bowls when the Broncos were terrible in the Red Zone year-in, year-out. Maybe it had to do with the quality at running back. Maybe the line’s technique had fallen off. The multitude of variables means there are a multitude of potential explanations.
I haven’t tasked anyone with going back to look at the previous years. But I’d bet that if you go back and look at the Griese and Plummer years, you’d find the Broncos were unable to or run the ball effectively in the Blood Red Zone. That’s my hypothesis. As for the cause, well, you’re right: Since there are so many variables, it’d be very difficult to tease out the root of the problem.
But let’s say you’re right: That technique wins. I’m willing to accept and believe that (I can remember when I was at CU, Christian Fauria absolutely dominating larger D-Lineman because of his exquisite technique). Then maybe the Broncos’ lack of success at running the ball in the Blood Red Zone was a function of the shorter field, which allowed the opposition’s safeties to pay more attention to filling those gaps.
I don’t know. The problem is, I thought that we had trouble running the ball in the Blood Red Zone last season. And Jenny’s research revealed that we didn’t – or at least during the first half of the season, when we still had options.
So I wonder if we’ve had trouble running the ball in the Blood Red Zone in the past or if that, too, is a figment of my imagination. I remember complaining about it.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 10, 2009 8:22 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who's this Schlereth you speak of?
I only know of Rock Hoover!
Oh wait… show got cancelled… =/
But seriously… I think it certainly has a correlation to the quality of backs that we’ve implemented in the RZ of late. You forgot that after TD and the SB’s, we also had a pretty good back in Portis, who scored a good amount of TDs. I can’t tell you offhand if that was all from outside the RZ (he did have some long runs), but I bet he punched it in within the RZ a fair amount too. Also, I believe Mike Anderson was a pretty good RZ back as well.
Very interesting question and good stats to support! But more importantly, please send pix of Jenny. kthxbai!
by tunga77 on Jun 10, 2009 9:01 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
and oh btw...
The injected humor was excellent as well… I particularly love the last line. ;)
by tunga77 on Jun 10, 2009 9:05 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
We could very well have been bad
which is why I pointed out that I wasn’t addressing your points directly. That would take a ton of research.
The research is in on 2007 though, and it makes an interesting contrast with your data from 2008. 2007 was “The Year of the Backup”. Before 2007 we had the George “I can has cheezeburger now?” Foster era, which was crippling in its own right. We also went through a period int eh Griese Plummer days when we were REALLY undersized, a product of ONLY culling CFAs and late rounders for the Oline. Gibbs had left at that point as well, so the lack of his input may have affected things a bit.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jun 10, 2009 11:01 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd
Very nicely done!
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jun 10, 2009 6:00 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know...
The ’97 and ’98 Bronco teams were pretty effective in the Red Zone, and they were all about the ZB. True, that was a long time ago and the League has a whole has adjusted somewhat, but is it now ineffective as a system in the Red Zone?
I’d say “no”- I think our problems have much more to do to do with personnel, execution, and technique.
Interesting stuff to ponder, thanks!
by AllBroncsallday on Jun 10, 2009 9:30 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Let's clear up a misconception about zone blocking...
While it is generally true that you have to move the defensive line in order to run effectively in short yardage, that does not mean you have to push them backwards. Most drive blocking “smash mouth” teams will try to do just that. But watch closely and you’ll also see that many defensive lineman just submarine the O-line and try to stack things up at the LoS. Try pushing someone backwards who is already on all fours?
Zone blocking schemes move the defensive line by forcing them to move laterally. Instead of submarining and digging in, the D-line has to move laterally and maintian their gap. The O-line then tries to hook, turn, or cut the defender creating a hole to run through.
But even a pure ZB team like Denver doesn’t alway run ZB plays. Denver often will run straight ahead drive blocking plays. However, because of the threat of the ZB, the D-line still can’t just dig in. They have to read and react, giving the blockers a split second more time to get better position.
What makes scoring so difficult in the “Blood Red Zone”, as you called it, is that you are playing in confined space. The safeties are playing up at the line because there is no deep threath (you can’t throw a 40 yd pass from the opponents 3). So the runner has to be able to run through arm tackles, while protecting the ball, and probably run through a shoulder to reach the end zone. Mike Anderson did this well; Terrell Davis was fantastic at running tough in the red zone. Gary and Bell were so so.
by SlowWhiteGuy on Jun 10, 2009 11:25 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I've got a better idea
Try pushing someone backwards who is already on all fours?
I’d like to try pushing Jenny FORWARD while she’s already on all fours.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 10, 2009 4:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
secrets are my stock and trade
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jun 11, 2009 7:07 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
easy tiger.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jun 10, 2009 5:11 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post, LOL
I can’t help but think of you as the cop in Usual Suspects now…..very cynical, always to the point……..there can’t be any deep sophisticated plan to what the Broncs are doing with the draft and scheme. Just evaluate it on face value, it doesn’t make sense…..the pics, the FAs, etc.
So now that I have you psychologically stereotyped, I gotta say you might be DEAD right…..oh yeah, I really like reading your stuff too!
by BideshiBronco on Jun 10, 2009 9:55 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

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