Brandon Marshall's On-Field Problems

by Chibronx on Jul 1, 2009 7:52 PM MDT Comment 50 comments

In just 15 games in 2008, Brandon Marshall caught 104 passes. The feat ranked third in the NFL for the season (behind Andre Johnson and Wes Welker) and second in the all-time history of the Denver Broncos. With our own eyes, we saw the remarkable degree to which he keyed the offense. We marveled at his acrobatic catches (think of the rising, back-of-the-endzone grab in Kansas City) and his often astonishing ability to stay on his feet, describing a perfect circle behind the defense as he hauls in the ball on the sideline, shakes off a defender, and cuts back behind the grain. It was wonderful, and as much as we all loved Rod Smith's dedication to the game and technical expertise, Marshall's physical gifts captured our attention in a unique way.

But our eyes often deceive us, and the highlight-reel memories we assemble of a player can misled - often badly - when it comes to assessing his impact on the team. This article looks at the considerable cost at which Marshall's accomplishments came, and asks what a fair appraisal of his production (as opposed to his talent and potential) looks like. Two points before we jump in. First, a hat tip to Jaffe28, who posted a more concise form of these statistics earlier today. I've been working on this for awhile, and don't want it to be seen as plagiarism. Second, I want Marshall to stay on the team - this is not a hit job. My point of departure is the observation that he has asked the Broncos to evaluate his potential. Given all the if's attached to this young man, I want to ask what his production has looked like once we account for the disproportionate number of times Jay Cutler threw to him last year. Every throw on the football field comes at a cost - of another receiver not thrown to, or of a run not taken. To me, the dominant question is: how efficient were the Broncos when they directed the action Marshall's way? The analysis below doesn't try to answer the quesiton of whether Brandon Marshall or Jay Cutler or Jeremy Bates is at fault for Marshall's underwhelming numbers. It just asks what those numbers are, and contextualizes them via comparison to the league's other frequently targeted wide receivers.

Putting aside his injuries, legal troubles, contract demands and attitude, a closer look at the numbers suggests several important qualifications to Marshall's on-field performance. We all know about his relative lack of touchdowns. Marshall reached the end zone just six times last year, and just seven times the year before that. But a bigger concern to my mind is the relative inefficiency of the passing game when it has been directed Marshall's way. Rather than dance around the point, I'll cut straight to the table:

Table 1: Reception Percentage (Receptions/Targets)

Name	Team	Target	Rec	Reception Percentage
Wes Welker	NE	150	112	74.7%
Anquan Boldin	ARI	126	89	70.6%
Eddie Royal	DEN	129	91	70.5%
Lance Moore	NO	113	79	69.9%
Donald Driver	GB	107	74	69.2%
Steve Breaston	ARI	113	77	68.1%
Andre Johnson	HOU	170	115	67.6%
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	CIN	137	92	67.2%
Greg Camarillo	MIA	83	55	66.3%
Derrick Mason	BAL	121	80	66.1%
Hines Ward	PIT	126	82	65.1%
Greg Jennings	GB	125	80	64.0%
Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	112	71	63.4%
Kevin Walter	HOU	95	60	63.2%
Reggie Wayne	IND	130	82	63.1%
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	154	96	62.3%
Lee Evans	BUF	102	63	61.8%
Michael Jenkins	ATL	81	50	61.7%
Antwaan Randle El	WAS	87	53	60.9%
Antonio Bryant	TB	138	84	60.9%
Steve Smith	CAR	129	78	60.5%
Laveranues Coles	NYJ	116	70	60.3%
Bobby Wade	MIN	88	53	60.2%
Ted Ginn	MIA	93	56	60.2%
Muhsin Muhammad	CAR	108	65	60.2%
Matt Jones	JAC	107	64	59.8%
Roddy White	ATL	149	88	59.1%
Vincent Jackson	SD	101	59	58.4%
Brandon Stokley	DEN	85	49	57.6%
Santana Moss	WAS	138	79	57.2%
Brandon Marshall	DEN	182	104	57.1%
Devin Hester	CHI	92	52	56.5%
Isaac Bruce	SF	107	60	56.1%
Marvin Harrison	IND	107	60	56.1%
Dwayne Bowe	KC	157	86	54.8%
Randy Moss	NE	126	69	54.8%
Chad Ochocinco	CIN	97	53	54.6%
Marques Colston	NO	87	47	54.0%
Amani Toomer	NYG	89	48	53.9%
Torry Holt	STL	119	64	53.8%
Donnie Avery	STL	104	54	51.9%
Calvin Johnson	DET	151	78	51.7%
DeSean Jackson	PHI	121	62	51.2%
Bernard Berrian	MIN	95	48	50.5%
Mark Clayton	BAL	82	41	50.0%
Terrell Owens	DAL	140	69	49.3%
Santonio Holmes	PIT	114	55	48.2%
Roy Williams	DET	82	36	43.9%
Braylon Edwards	CLE	138	55	39.9%

On his way to completing those 104 throws to Marshall, Jay Cutler threw the ball his way 182 times. Andre Johnson, the league's second most thrown-to receiver was targeted "just" 170 times and finished with 310 more yards. Putting aside, for a moment, the question of what kinds of throws the quarterbacks in question made, we have an easy explanation for Marshall's comparatively low yardage production: Compared to the league's best wide-outs, he caught a small percentage of the balls thrown his way. To be specific, Marshall's catch-conversion rate (that is, the share of times he caught balls thrown his way) was 57.1% -- the thirty-first best rate for wide receivers targeted at least 80 times.

Pro football has many kinds of receivers, routes, and plays, so I'll try to put the number in context. First of all, look at the top three receivers in the table. Wes Welker and Eddie Royal (OK, I buried the lede on that one) run different kinds of routes - shorter, lower-reward, and far more likely to result in completions. Welker caught nearly three out of four balls thrown his way, and Royal caught seven out of ten. Anquan Boldin, while more obviously athletic, plays a similar-ish role on the Cardinals' offense. As far as I'm concerned, he's a revelation, and if I were a desperate team targeting a disenchanted wideout with iffy health and dollar signs in his eyes, I know who it would be.

OK, let's take another cut at the numbers. Draw an imaginary line below Michael Jenkins. That line marks the league-wide completion percentage of 61% for last year; every Wide Receiver above the line had a catch-rate (or, if you prefer, completion percentage) above the league average. That's a noteworthy achievement for a wide-out because the league-wide completion rate includes lots of low-risk, check-down throws to running backs, #4 wideouts, and other players who make good targets precisely because they're such lesser threats that the defense often leaves them open. Look closely at the twenty players above the line, and you see many (although not all) of the truly elite #1 wide-outs: Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Lee Evans, Greg Jennings. What's notable here is that Marshall comes in behind not only these highly accomplished monsters, but behind a number of receivers - Matt Jones, Tedd Ginn, Jerico Cotchery, Kevin Walter, Antonio Bryant - who earn far less acclaim.

OK, fine, he didn't catch a lot balls, you say, but catching the ball is not a wide receiver's only job. He's also supposed to make big plays. Sure, the Walsh offense and increasing sophistication of the passing game have made it a lower-risk, lower-reward endeavor, but a deep threat that stretches the defense and moves the team down the field in big leaps still has a lot of value. Despite his physical gifts, Marshall is not that player. To the contrary, despite his low reception rate, he performs better as a short, possession receiver - drops and all - than he does as a deep threat.

Table 2: Yards per Reception

Name	Team	Rec	Yard	Yards/Reception
Bernard Berrian	MIN	48	964	20.1
Vincent Jackson	SD	59	1,098	18.6
Steve Smith	CAR	78	1,417	18.2
Calvin Johnson	DET	78	1,331	17.1
Mark Clayton	BAL	41	695	17.0
Marques Colston	NO	47	760	16.2
Greg Jennings	GB	80	1,292	16.2
Lee Evans	BUF	63	1,017	16.1
Braylon Edwards	CLE	55	877	15.9
Roddy White	ATL	88	1,382	15.7
Michael Jenkins	ATL	50	777	15.5
Terrell Owens	DAL	69	1,052	15.2
Kevin Walter	HOU	60	899	15.0
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	96	1,434	14.9
Santonio Holmes	PIT	55	821	14.9
Antonio Bryant	TB	84	1,249	14.9
DeSean Jackson	PHI	62	912	14.7
Randy Moss	NE	69	1,008	14.6
Muhsin Muhammad	CAR	65	923	14.2
Ted Ginn	MIA	56	790	14.1
Reggie Wayne	IND	82	1,145	14.0
Isaac Bruce	SF	60	833	13.9
Andre Johnson	HOU	115	1,575	13.7
Donald Driver	GB	74	1,012	13.7
Santana Moss	WAS	79	1,044	13.2
Steve Breaston	ARI	77	1,003	13.0
Derrick Mason	BAL	80	1,037	13.0
Devin Hester	CHI	52	665	12.8
Hines Ward	PIT	82	1,047	12.8
Donnie Avery	STL	54	684	12.7
Torry Holt	STL	64	796	12.4
Bobby Wade	MIN	53	645	12.2
Brandon Marshall	DEN	104	1,265	12.2
Laveranues Coles	NYJ	70	850	12.1
Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	71	858	12.1
Amani Toomer	NYG	48	580	12.1
Roy Williams	DET	36	430	11.9
Dwayne Bowe	KC	86	1,022	11.9
Lance Moore	NO	79	928	11.7
Matt Jones	JAC	64	750	11.7
Anquan Boldin	ARI	89	1,038	11.7
Antwaan Randle El	WAS	53	593	11.2
Greg Camarillo	MIA	55	613	11.1
Brandon Stokley	DEN	49	528	10.8
Eddie Royal	DEN	91	980	10.8
Marvin Harrison	IND	60	636	10.6
Wes Welker	NE	112	1,165	10.4
Chad Ochocinco	CIN	53	540	10.2
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	CIN	92	904	9.8

More interesting than Marshall's numbers are the overall numbers for the Broncos' passing game. Marshall ranks 33rd in yards per reception among the highly-targeted players here, but first among

Broncos. Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokely followed, each at 10.8 yards per catch. (Tony Scheffler is another story, but he plays another position). This fascinates me because I believed that the Broncos employed a high-risk, high-reward passing game last year. The numbers here suggest it was more like a medium-risk, low-reward game.

OK, before wrapping it up, let's look at the most commonly cited mitigating factor in Marshall's production. The guy racks up a lot of first downs. In fact, it was posited - quite smartly - early today that his low Yards per Catch rate owes to the fact that the team asked him to run lots of routes only as far as the first-down marker. On this count, most of us feel that he succeeded. But once again, the numbers tell a different story.

Table 4: First Downs per Times Thrown to on Third Down

Name	TARG	FD	First Downs per Target
Derrick Mason	36	23	0.64
Hines Ward	37	23	0.62
Steve Smith	31	19	0.61
Greg Jennings	35	21	0.60
Steve Breaston	27	16	0.59
Matt Jones	27	16	0.59
Anthony Gonzalez	29	17	0.59
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	46	26	0.57
Roddy White	51	28	0.55
Wes Welker	33	18	0.55
Steve Smith	32	17	0.53
Vincent Jackson	37	19	0.51
Reggie Wayne	39	20	0.51
Dwayne Bowe	39	20	0.51
Brandon Stokley	39	20	0.51
Laveranues Coles	26	13	0.50
Jason Avant	26	13	0.50
Anquan Boldin	34	17	0.50
Davone Bess	25	12	0.48
Patrick Crayton	25	12	0.48
Andre Johnson	30	14	0.47
Donald Driver	39	18	0.46
DeSean Jackson	37	17	0.46
Santonio Holmes	44	20	0.45
Isaac Bruce	40	18	0.45
Jerricho Cotchery	34	15	0.44
Bernard Berrian	26	11	0.42
Brandon Marshall	43	18	0.42
Amani Toomer	25	10	0.40
Brandon Jones	30	12	0.40
Lance Moore	35	14	0.40
Chad Ochocinco	28	11	0.39
Devin Hester	29	11	0.38
Antonio Bryant	46	17	0.37
Mark Clayton	28	10	0.36
Kevin Walter	34	12	0.35
Bobby Engram	26	9	0.35
Justin McCareins	26	9	0.35
Muhsin Muhammad	35	12	0.34
Braylon Edwards	38	13	0.34
Santana Moss	35	11	0.31
Terrell Owens	43	13	0.30
Calvin Johnson	45	13	0.29
Torry Holt	39	9	0.23

In 2008, 44 NFL receivers were targeted 25 or more times on Third Down. Collectively, Quarterbacks threw 1,509 passes their way. They converted 687 into first downs, for an average conversion rate of 46%. Brandon Marshall earned 18 first downs on 43 third-down targets - a success rate of 42%. That figure places him 28th in the group.

Overall, Marshall is in the middle or the bottom of the pack for every statistic that describes a specialized wide-receiver skill. He did not catch a particularly large number of the balls thrown his way. His receptions went for short yardage. And on third down, he moved the chains at a below-average rate. On none of the receiving statistics above did he rank above 28th in the NFL.

So am I saying he's a lousy receiver, and that the Broncos should kick him to the curb? No. I think he can flourish, and mightily, in the McDaniels system. My analysis is not the most charitable. He probably should not be blamed for Cutler forcing the ball to him as often as Cutler did. The problems of the Jeremy Bates scheme are not his fault. And yet those problems are the reason why Marshall, despite the many what-ifs surrounding his future performance - can he stay healthy? Will he give his all to the team? Will he stay on the roster? Will he stay out of lock-up? - is demanding his payday. If Cutler had spread the ball around more or the Broncos had called more running plays (as they should have), his numbers would not be so gaudy. As the tables above show, the single most impressive thing about Marshall's on-field performance was the number of times Jay Cutler threw him the ball.

Marshall's talent captivates me. I want him to succeed. And I want him to do it in a Broncos uniform. But when weighing the many risks of his future against the documented inefficiency of his production with the Broncos, I don't like the results. I hope the team can keep him this year under his current contract. Barring that, I hope that some other team - hello, Dan Snyder - focuses on his upside rather than his production. Because I fear that's the only way the Broncos will get maximum value out of this gifted, frustrating athlete.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

A few notes:

Stats are from footballguys.com. It’s not the best data source, but fantasy people are the only ones who seem to keep track of such finely grained statistics

I would welcome criticism that tries to place these numbers within the context of Marshall’s skills, his role in the Bates offense, etc. I’m best at the bird’s-eye view, and would love to learn from someone willing to break down what happens on the field in more detail.

Oh, and sorry about the loooong tables, but they’re a huge part of the point.

by Chibronx on Jul 1, 2009 8:14 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Chibronx

Sweet analysis. I don’t think you are being too negative. The numbers are what they are. If one had the time they could go back and look at every Cutler to Marshall forced pass and add more to this analysis. Also, it might be worth a post to look at who Marshall was getting his catches against. For example, it’s fairly well known now that during week 2, when Marshall had 18 catches, Antonio Cromartie wasn’t just hurt, but hurt big time. In my opinion, there is no way in hell he gets 18 catches if Cromartie doesn’t have a freakin broken hip.

Great job and Rec’d. It takes awhile to put together a good article like this.

by TJ Johnson on Jul 1, 2009 8:59 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice article

Its amazing what you find out when you actually look at numbers and statistics and remove emotion and memory.

"No matter how far a Jackass travels it will never come back a horse"

by SpaceCowboyInLG on Jul 1, 2009 9:50 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Rec'd Chibronx

Good Analysis, I would also like to keep Brandon if he stops being a tool, I think whats hard to measure is the types of coverage he draws and his impact in keeping our other receivers routes open.

I guess I wouldn’t like to see us trade him unless we got good value in return, not a discounted rate because of his antics.

Cheers again on a good article

by Scotto on Jul 1, 2009 10:04 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

He may be a tool

But he’s not acting like the sharpest tool in the shed…

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jul 1, 2009 11:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

With you on that Bear

I don’t think hes ever going to be in danger of winning a Nobel prize.

by Scotto on Jul 2, 2009 6:56 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Totally right, Scotto

I’d love to have information on all that. And I do think that the fact the Broncos directed so much action to Marshall, opened up room for Royal.

But to me, the burden of proof is on Marshall, and it’s pretty steep. I’m just trying to imagine the mitigating factors that could account for him placing so consistently poorly on these measures. Which isn’t to say that they don’t exist. I’m just going to stick with big skepticism until convinced otherwise.

by Chibronx on Jul 2, 2009 8:24 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

passing game

Royal may have been a new, and thus less feared, threat earlier in the season but it didn’t take long to establish himself as a threat in his own right — the first game, as I recall.

It’s just as easy to say that Royal opened things up for Marshall, if we take a purely logical track, but without a complete record it’s hard to tease these numbers apart. What we really need is a record of every down and situation.

The argument that Marshall is being regarded as a threat by defenses is sound but the statistical evidence suggests that he was often thrown to anyways (and there’s game film that also suggests this). And Royal’s receptions numbers & efficiency metric along with Stokley’s 3rd down efficiency suggest that we should have used Marshall as a threat EVEN MORE and redirected more throws to Royal, Stokley, and others, because we more efficient when we did. A better question is — was Cutler locking in on Marshall, and was that a move that helped us or ill advised? There’s still a chance that he threw to him because he was one receiver who could catch the ball there was no other target open. There’s enough evidence to conclude that they had too much of a two-man game going on.

It’s often a bad sign when a single individual has high statistical totals — oddly. I always prefer seeing high team totals combined with balanced individual numbers. In a strategic sense, having more players with receptions is a sign that you’ve spread the ball around in response to what the defense has taken away. The statistic that I find most telling is the (lack of) receptions by the RBs — Hillis (14), Pitman (10), Bell (10), Hall (3), Young (3), Pope (3) – TOTAL = 43 receptions for RBs.

I’d say that we were unbalanced in the distribution of our passes, and the RBs receptions’ statistic is yet another indication, besides Marshall’s stats.

"If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". W. I. Thomas

by Colinski on Jul 2, 2009 11:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even if Cutler threw to him too much, having an obvious #1 target has benefits

You bring up an interesting point. Even if someone isn’t producing so well in the passing game, the FACT of centering the passing game around him creates a tension for defenders and opens up space elsewhere to exploit. What I worry about is that even if he was used unwisely, Marshall required such severe attention in coverage that the passing game was better off as a whole. Putting aside the part about Cutler’s seeming disinterest in exploiting it.

The holy grail here would be to watch the games and mark down the kinds of routes each receiver ran, and how they were covered. I’m sure the Broncos have a full-time employee who does those kinds of things. Oh, man, to know what he knows….

by Chibronx on Jul 3, 2009 7:55 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Locking on

I always prefer seeing high team totals combined with balanced individual numbers. In a strategic sense, having more players with receptions is a sign that you’ve spread the ball around in response to what the defense has taken away.

I agree, ‘ski, and this also relates to the running game. A lot of fans are looking to find out if McD will use Moreno as a primary back or use more of a RBBC approach (over the course of the season, both will probably happen). I’m more concerned with our attempts and average gains than I am with who totes the rock. As far as that goes, if they fake to Moreno and have Buckhalter (or Hillis, etc) run it through a resultant hole, we gain just as many yards.

Marshall’s open concern with who got the ball and how many times was an additional example of why he’s achieved a measure of disgust with Mr. Team, Rod Smith. I do, however, believe based on what I found in research on the Pats, that we will spread around both throws and carries.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jul 3, 2009 1:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very well done and rec'd

As we all know stats can be deceiving. In this case it’s the # of catches that is actually deceptive. The other stats that intrigues me are his number of dropped passes and fumbles which either kill a drive or give the other team field position. That analysis doesn’t favor BM either. I do agree that with the right coaching in the right system he could become a top tier receiver but he’s not there yet.

"as in football so in life"

by asinsoin on Jul 1, 2009 10:06 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

He could, but as we all know, it's about attitude and character that makes players great.

Until he acquires those traits, it’ll be tough. If he wasn’t so bull headed he would listen to Rod Smith. Smiths’ been there, done that.

by bfree2bronc on Jul 1, 2009 10:14 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well it seems this little puzzle has taken on a few more pieces,

off field issues, on field issues, off field issues, owner/coach issues, what’s next? Marshall should show up at training camp before some dumb owner/coach finds this information…hurry boys, shut out all non MHR fans, before he’s worthless, or is it useless, to trade? Nahhh…Great Post Chibronx

by bfree2bronc on Jul 1, 2009 10:09 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah Chi...rec'd for the great works...

by bfree2bronc on Jul 1, 2009 10:15 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not the data, it's how you interpret it.

Chibronx, I genuflect in reverence. You have accomplished a revealing glimpse of the cold, hard, facts, & even more importantly, the truth. You were able to articulate facts I could not coherently verbalize. Great research, & even more importantly, great interpretation. Stats can be very deceiving when weilded by a fool in his folly, or they can be sharper than a two edged sword, revealing truth, when weilded by a wise man. You are that wise man. Thanks for the awesome expose.

"He can take his'n n beat your'n, or he can take your'n n beat his'n." Florida A&M Coach Jake Gaither on Alabama Coach Paul "Bear" Bryant.

by turnerstoe on Jul 1, 2009 10:45 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I had looked at

the 1st down percentage numbers for all three of our WR’s, so I knew this would be a good post. Thanks for going a little deeper with this Chibronx. Nice job. Rec’d

"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."

by KaptainKirk on Jul 1, 2009 11:07 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I just noticed that I hadn't rec'd this article

My apologies – it’s certainly worth one. Great research – thanks for contributing! Rec’d!

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jul 1, 2009 11:27 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

rec'd for a great article

The more I see things like this, the more I understand why McDaniels has taken the approach he’s taken.

MSM and a lot of fans have based their perception on fantasy league statistics where the typical process is to stress total yards and points scored by qb’s, rb’s, and receivers. Those perceptions have also been deepened by the NFL’s overly simplistic means of ranking offenses according to yardage amassed.

Thanks for helping us better understand what was truly going on.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Jul 2, 2009 12:02 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Awesome post and rec'd!

You and I obviously saw some of the same things to make us suspicious of Brandon’s real production. You’ve done put in a lot more work to make your point than I did, and it makes more sense as as result. Great job!

by jaffe28 on Jul 2, 2009 1:06 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Great Post

It’s always nice to have my preconceptions challenged. It is good to to see a truth, but important to remember that stats can prove anything.

I think that BM would be phenominal in the Josh McD offense, as we now have a QB that works through his progressions and will hopefully find the open man, rather than just throw it to BM in coverage as happened too many times last year.

A lot of hard work went into this post. Rec’d

by CockneyBronco on Jul 2, 2009 1:57 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow. Great Research.

I loved the numbers you were able to scrounge up. The number of receptions that BM caught in the past year is the most common stat analysts have used to prove his worth as an “elite” receiver, but when you put those numbers in context we get an entirely different picture. The numbers make him out as nothing more than an over-targeted possession receiver—not really a big play threat at all, at least not in the way he’s painted to be. I love BM’s talent and I think that in the right circumstances he can be very effective. But due to a number of reasons he just wasn’t a very efficient offensive weapon last year, and these stats back it up.

Rec’d indeed.

by bowma101 on Jul 2, 2009 2:19 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Yep....I have been saying for months he was nothing more than a possession WR with potential....

Great post and rec’d.

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.

by boydy2669 on Jul 2, 2009 5:36 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Table 3 is on its way

Thanks for all the kind words folks. I just looked at this again and realized that in my efforts to cut out some of the html formatting problems, I nixed some of the article by accident. Not that it isn’t long enough, but hey, you’ve all been very charitable about the garble in the middle.

by Chibronx on Jul 2, 2009 6:22 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

You did a great job...do you want to do a team post?

by bfree2bronc on Jul 2, 2009 9:41 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

More on yards per target

Oy — all my attempts to clean up the middle of the article and reinsert the botched table have made things much, much worse. On the subject of yards per target, I had another table showing all of the highly targeted players. Steve Smith was at the top, at 11 yards per target. Then came Vincent Jackson and Greg Jennings. Then lots of other people we know well. Then Greg Camarillo and others we don’t know so well. Then Bobby Wade. Then some more people (all in the 7-8 yard per target range). Then — yes — Devin Hester. Then, 38th on the table, we run into B-Marsh, who averaged 7 yards per time Cutler threw the ball his way.

Think about it this way — the Broncos’ passing game to Marshall was about 63% as efficient as the Panthers’ passing game to Smith.

Sorry again about the mess in the middle of the table. If anybody can straighten me out on HTML tags, I’d be grateful for the help.

by Chibronx on Jul 2, 2009 8:22 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

No problem Chi

you can always do a Part 2. ;-)

"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."

by KaptainKirk on Jul 2, 2009 8:49 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Very nicely done - you put in a lot of work

Do any of your data sources allow one to determine how many passes were defensed per target?

It's "just" football

by Donkhead on Jul 2, 2009 9:20 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Don’t I wish. That’s the great shortcoming of this approach, and it’s the reason why I limited the analysis to talking about his production, rather than assigning blame/responsibility.

by Chibronx on Jul 2, 2009 9:37 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cutler

IMO, Marshall’s statistics reflect a QB problem as much as anything. While Cutler has been reinvented as already a franchise QB, the grumblings about his tunnel vision and inability to quickly adapt to defensive adjustements were happening long before it was fashionable to criticize Cutler There were a disportionate amount of times when Marshall simply had no reasonable chance to make a play because he was blanketed. There were also a disporportionate number of times when Scheffler, Royal and Stokely would be visibly frustrated with Cutler on the field. Things were just excacerbated after the first KC game last year, when Shannahan publically defended Cutler trying to force balls.

I think more optimistic view on Marshall can be seen in his first season. As a rookie— as just another cog in the machine— he converted fewer opportunities into a much higher percentage of big plays. Once he became the focal point, that complicated things…which is only natural. However, the desire to get him the ball became almost pathological, and by then, even the 2009 Broncos defense could have contained him and mitigated against his real impact.

In a balanced attack, he has as much promise as any guy out there in whatever role is chosen for him. I tend to think that Kyle Orton will make him better because Orton will utilize the options around him more.

I am an idiot walking a tightrope of fortune and fame
I am an acrobat swinging trapezes through circles of flame
If you've never stared off in the distance, then your life is a shame
and though I'll never forget your face,
sometimes i can't remember my name.
--Counting Crows, "Mrs. Potter's Lullaby"

by PredominantlyOrange on Jul 2, 2009 9:27 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs

I’m in something approaching full agreement with you, Orange. One of the great things about doing this work was that it disabused me of all my lingering affections for the 2008 Broncos passing game.

But all that said, from a bargaining/agent standpoint, Marshall is the beneficiary of a lot of those forced balls. While a lot of them were certainly uncatchable by any measure, I’m sure he also snared his share of ill-advised passes, too. They count for the catch and yardage totals, and are one of the reasons why he made the pro bowl, and one of the reasons why he’s pushing for a raise.

by Chibronx on Jul 2, 2009 9:41 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree completely with your general argument, for sure.

But I think the big plays will come back if he has a QB willing to utilize the whole scheme. To me its almost surreal that this is happening, because I’m convinced that this scheme will not only improve his game but also eventually expand his pocket book. But that naturally leads to the maturity issue…and who knows when that light will come on for him.

I still hope it happens in Denver.

by PredominantlyOrange on Jul 2, 2009 10:12 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh Yeah

And if Xanders and Bowlen happen to log on to this site, you’ve given them every counter argument in the book for their upcoming meetings with BM and his agent.

It's "just" football

by Donkhead on Jul 2, 2009 9:28 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs

This probably goes without saying, but I’m sure they know way, way more about this than I do.

But re: bargaining, here’s the thing. From Marshall’s point of view, the issue isn’t what his production merits, it’s what he could get from another team. Pointing out that the bottom line in his production has been problematic does not change the fact that another GM/owner is likely to plunk down some big cash based on his totals.

by Chibronx on Jul 2, 2009 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great article Chibrox

Very informative and rec’d

by rocko1 on Jul 2, 2009 9:34 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

My only concern

I seem to recall Marshall pouting in a couple of games when he wasn’t the focus of Jay’s offense. I would have to consider the possibility that Marshall might not be entirely Ok with the fact that winning is more important than who is getting the catches. While this isn’t unheard of with good WRs, it’s a problem that McD is unlikely to view with sympathy

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jul 2, 2009 9:58 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's a thought Bear.

I wanted players who wanted to be in the game. They have the confidence, and seem to play with a high drive. BUT those same players come with a drawback – they often seem to tend towards selfishness and not the “team”.

It is a fine line. The same trait that can lead an athlete to push himself and to focus can be a double edged sword. (In my case, I always made it clear that I wasn’t going to listen to pleas to “Put me in Coach” because they were distractions. If a player wanted to talk to me, it needed to be about something else, like an observation [“That RG is tearing us up Coach”] or an injury [“My shoulder’s hurting pretty bad”].

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Jul 2, 2009 11:03 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well said!

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jul 2, 2009 3:35 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Broncos need winners not whiners

Between Cutler and Marshall, they have had one winning season since high school. Central Florida in 05.

by rocko1 on Jul 2, 2009 3:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent stuff!

Rec’d!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Jul 2, 2009 10:58 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

ESPN

See this story: http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nflnation?tag=building%20blocks%20afc

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nflnation/0-8-95/Ultimate-Building-Blocks—AFC-West.html

Brandon got some love from Bill Williamson. I can’t imagine why he would pick Shawne Merriman. His Knowshon Moreno pick is completely without basis until Knowshon proves himself on the field. How could he pick a rookie who has never played a game?

by Endzone on Jul 2, 2009 11:30 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Another interesting analysis

Great job with the analysis on Marshall. It would be good to see other data, such as % catch-able balls for all of the top receivers as well. I am guessing that of the times Marshall was targeted, that he had a lower percentage of catch-able balls when compared to the other top targeted receivers, thus affecting his reception percentage. Alas, this data would probably be very difficult to come by.

by FtCoNative on Jul 2, 2009 1:36 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Very nice analysis chibronx

It would seem many of our failures in the red zone could also be attributed to the mediocre production when it counted by our star receiver. As you so astutely point out mere # of catches and yards don’t make you an elite receiver except superficially. Marshall remains a legend in his own mind who really hasn’t done anything yet on the football field to warrant his inflated ego. Highly rec’d

by Ponderosa on Jul 2, 2009 3:18 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I love statistics, and good opinions to back them up.

Solid, well, thought post, and that goes for Jaffe’s post earlier today as well.

by NFL Junky on Jul 2, 2009 4:46 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Definitely rec'd!

Thank you for your efforts in this analysis Chibronx! And the heads up on the stat. source!

First team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! and then some, right? I think four and we oughtta let someone else have a fair shot : )

by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Jul 2, 2009 8:09 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Outsiders

I’ve been looking at Outsiders’ DVOA and DVAR statistics, which attempt to renormalize the WR statistics in a way that overcomes the problems we’re discussing here.

DVAR: Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average WR in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player’s performance.

DVOA: Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this WR caught the ball, compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

i won’t attempt to explain their statistical methods but I’ll include their WR ranking so you can see where players rank:

~~////////////////~~—DVAR———--DVOA

Royal: -—- #32 -———— #47
Marshall: – #42 -———- #58
Stokley: -- #55 -———- #55
Gaffney :— #56 -———- #53

ALSO in the 10 – 49 receptions group

Lloyd: #17

"If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". W. I. Thomas

by Colinski on Jul 3, 2009 1:38 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I generally believe in their methods and approach (which, yikes, came to even more negative conclusions than I did). But they’re constrained in the same way we are. They can do a more sophisticated take by factoring in defense and replacement value, but at the end, the Football Outsiders stats don’t let us assess blame, credit, etc. We know the Broncos’ passing game was horrifically inefficient. Now I want to start asking: why?

by Chibronx on Jul 3, 2009 7:59 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lloyd

Lloyd may turn out to be a great pickup. I saw a brief blurb on Channel 9 (Denver) where he talks about looking forward to being on the team and went on to praise BMarsh.

by Endzone on Jul 3, 2009 10:56 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

These are awesome comments. And Cutler seems to be the common thread

I don’t know about everyone else, but for me, the discussion of Marshall’s efficiency is ultimately about Jay Cutler and the number of balls that were forced B-Marsh’s way. I think this is something most of us believed. But the more we talk it out here, the more I’m grasping just how flawed Cutler’s decision-making was. Which isn’t to say it couldn’t have improved in Denver. But now, more than ever, I understand McDaniels’ approach and the reason why he didn’t go to the mat to keep Cutler in town.

by Chibronx on Jul 3, 2009 8:04 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I just realized how pointless yards per reception is

"Really, I'm a high-motor guy. Tough, hard-nosed, a hard runner, can make you miss at times. And just competitive. I love to play the game and I bring that energy to my team. So, we'll see how that goes." - Knowshon Moreno

Knowshon Moreno=ROY

by stedtfeld on Jul 3, 2009 12:44 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Excellent Post.

One reason why I love baseball is the advanced stats of statistics. This kind of post reminds me that the revolution is underway in football as well. Thanks for sharing this research with us. Marshall, like Cutler, is another guy who is talented but overrated. Raw stats and highlight reels tend to do that… thanks ESPN! Seriously though, keep up this great work, man.

"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999

by ejruiz on Jul 3, 2009 3:19 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs