Horse Tracks 7/13/09 - KC Joyner compares Cutler to Rex. Yes, THAT Rex.
by Douglas A. Lee on Jul 13, 2009 5:12 AM MDT
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Happy Monday, MHR Friends! Now, I'm sure some of you are thinking "Will NYC just get over the Cutler thing?" Unfortunately, there is no Broncos news today. So, the most interesting thing I found this morning comes courtesy of KC Joyner, who thinks JC will bring back memories of Rex Grossman for Bears fans. Obviously, it is just one opinion, but Joyner naturally has some stats to back up his point. After all, he is a fellow stathead.
NYT - Sorry, Bears Fans, Cutler Isn’t the Answer - KC Joyner
KC brings up some interesting stats that remind us it's not all about Cutler's 4500+ yards passing. Keep in mind folks, a lot of guys could throw for that many yards with 616 attempts. Anyway, Joyner spent much of Thursday afternoon defending himself against rabid Bears fans. Frankly, it will be interesting to see if the Great Defenders of Cutler will read this column; will they dismiss Joyner's assertions? Have at it, friends!
SDUT - Exorcise program
Apparently, the Dolts have their own version of Travis Henry. Antonio Cromartie has seven children in five different states, all under the age of five. He does blame himself for his predicament, and has rededicated himself to getting into top shape.
PFW - Chiefs struggling to learn new defense
PFW is hearing the Chefs who are switching positions for the 3-4 are having problems adjusting. Of course, we're talking about minicamp; plus, I'm sure we'll be hearing the same things about the Broncos...
NBC - Raiders Tag Team With Martial Arts Girlfight
Oh my. Jokeland is offering ticket packages for their home game versus the Broncos, paired up with a female MMA title fight. Desperate times...
NFL - Game's best quarterbacks produce stats as well as victories
To no great surprise, Bucky Brooks has come up with a much more sensible list than our buddy Sapp.
NYT - Should the N.F.L. Be Worried About the U.F.L.? - George Bretherton
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good mornin!
gawd, Cutler?
It’s getting closer to the Bronco’s games!
I’ll go ahead and savor my summer until then.
Good Morning
Thanks Nyc
"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."
KC is headed for 2-14 ville (AGAIN)
KC Joyner?
I hate all these football contrarians trying to draw blood from a stone with each garbage article. So what that he threw for 4,500 yards or his team was 8-8 with the least talented Defense/special teams in the NFL, did you see his 4.6% bad decision ratio based on near ints vs high sticking infractions.
Bad Decision Rate? WTF stat is that? Joyner is a D*bag with far too much time on his hands. These journalists need to do a Peter King and take a F*ing vacation.
lmao McG
I’m not the staunch defender of Cutler I was last year, and I’ll admit I like a little MSM validation from time to time, even the fast-and-loose variety, but I have to agree with you on that point. Sad that they can’t be a little more imaginative with their offseason coverage these days.
As with the Broncos, I’m willing to wait and see how JC performs in a Bears uni before passing judgment. At this point, I can only guess their improvement will be marginal unless their offensive philosophy changes and they become committed to some serious play action and bootlegs. Can’t really see them opening it up for his cannon, but you never know. And it wouldn’t surprise me to see them make a play for Shanny next year.
"They need a hero to tell them that the impossible can become possible..... WHEN... YOU'RE... AWESOMMMME!" -- Rhino the Hamster
by broncosmontana on Jul 13, 2009 8:34 AM MDT up reply actions
Joyner is probably
the most rational journalist out there. He compiles detailed statistics on every player based on breaking down every individual play. Unlike some of the mindless drones in the media, he doesn’t just look at easy stats like gross yards – he reviews individual plays and studies tape. For example, when he rates offensive lineman he tracks how many plays were run with them as the point of attack, whether they succeeded in their block or not, if the were pushed back or the play was strung out, etc. He is not going on some emotional read; he’s telling everyone what the stats say. If he is a contrarian, it is only when reality is contrary to popular opinion.
Bad decision rate is just what it implies – what percentage of passes represent a poor decision, a pass that should not be thrown, e.g. intercepted or nearly intercepted. It should be no surprise that a QB who threw the 2nd most ints also has the highest poor decision rate.
by SlowWhiteGuy on Jul 13, 2009 8:41 AM MDT up reply actions
Bad Decision Rate
Interesting stat but where did he get that and isn’t it a bit subjective. Like assigning errors in Baseball. Sometimes its obvious but other times iffy. Though a negative stat, it can be changed. Just a thought it might be why McD didn’t retain Bates. BDR might be a result of bad coaching as anything.
"Sanity is the realization that everyone is insane to some degree." Me
The baseball comparison is apt.
Its tricky to measure things like errors or a bad decision rate because both stats are dictated by one person’s opinion of what they think the play should have been. I know that in baseball, sometimes making the extra effort to field a ball results in the error, but if the same player had made no effort at all, the ball would land in play, yet the fielder would not be given the error. Its a weird stat that in some cases, seems to punish effort and reward laziness. KC says that the BDR is created based on the % of passes that were interceped or should have been intercepted, but I wonder: what about ill-advised completions, throws where the defender misplayed the ball and the receiver ended up catching it through sheer good fortune? Or what about the reverse, when the conrner makes an incredible play to catch a ball that was thrown to a wide open WR? There’s just way to many variables and chances for human error when it comes to a stat like BDR. I love the intent of it, but right now it feels imperfect. That said, I do tend to agree with KC’s point. Jay made too many obvious mistakes that his talent was sometimes able to cover. I think of last year’s Jacksonville game where every other throw seemed to hit a defender in the chest, yet they couldn’t catch it because of the velocity. I can’t imagine how many INT’s Jay would have if the D could actually catch his throws.
Especially with Jay...
A lot of his completions were bad decisions- thrown into double or triple coverage when another receiver was wide open.
But the fact that he could complete those made him really exciting to watch- and maddening.
Putting stock in Joyner scores high on the bad decision rate metric
Cutler = Grossman = most rational journalist? Give me a break.
Near interceptions? WTF does that mean? If I had a nickel for every time an announcer said a “pass was nearly picked off” after some bullet glanced off a CBs pinky before landing in row 9, I’d be a millionaire several times over. That is not a stat anymore than plays strung out.
It’s also not surprising that a guy that threw 616 passes in one season had the 2nd most picks in the league. Did you care to consider the number of passes Cutler attempted when looking at his ints. Drew Brees (top 5 QB) is the only player that threw more passes last season and Brees threw one less pick than Jay. One. Does Brees = Grossman then?
A lot of people here spit their coffee all over their computer screen when Sapp said Cutler was a top 5 NFL QB. I don’t agree with Sapp, Cutler is top 10, but NOT top 5. Sapp is a guy that played pro ball. In fact (unlike Solomon Wilcox) Warren was a damn good player. I’d take Warren’s option over some scrawny stat D*bag like Joyner telling me about near ints or O-linemen getting pushed backwards.
Joyner, most rational journalist? Unbelievable. Are all these stat junkies a byproduct of that godforsaken time-suck known as fantasy football?
I don't think I agree about the Sapp comment
Sapp was a great player, no question, but in no way does that mean he has a capable understanding of everything that happens on the field, and even more, that he can analyze a football game from a wider perspective and communicate it to an audience. The attitude that statheads have nothing to give a football audience because they never played the games themselves is misguided. Stats help to paint a wider picture of all these minute things that happen on a football field that we can’t pick up with the naked eye. There’s the analogy that a football team is like a machine—every part has to work in harmony to find success. When KC talks about “near ints or O-lineman getting pushed backwards,” he’s really analyzing what components, in any given play, don’t function as they should. What gears are malfunctioning and hurting the machine? To me, you need an outsider’s perspective to analyze that sort of thing. Sapp’s perspective just isn’t broad enough.
by bowma101 on Jul 13, 2009 1:48 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Wow.
Breaking out the “D*bag.” Must have touched a nerve.
Incidentally, it’s possible that some of these “football contrarians” might actually believe what they write — even if that means having to publish heterodoxical assessments of Jay Cutler on occasion.
Just a theory I’m working on, but I think there might be something to it.
His metrics are a lot like the ones teams use to grade out their own players
Baseball writers used to make fun of VORP, RZR, OPS, DIPS, and all those other stats that sounded silly, but corrected for the conceptual problems with errors (you don’t get a chance to commit one if you’re to slow to get near the ball), RBI (can’t collect them if your teammates stink at getting on base) and ERA (which can fluctuate by 1 full run-plus, depending on the quality of your defense). And then the teams that used those stats started to win, a lot. And then they became conventional wisdom.
What, exactly, is so weird about the idea of a Bad Decision Rate? We complain all the time when a QB locks onto a covered guy, or doesn’t see a DB, or ignores a wide-open guy. We hate it. So Joyner sensibly looks at lots of film and tries to formalize that. To me, that guy’s not a hack. That’s a guy who loves the game and is trying to replace yapping gasbags with people who actually watch football instead of talking about stars and gumption and whatever other crapola substitutes for watching the actual game.
His argument remains unassailable, to me. Compared to 2007, Jay Cutler completed a lower percentage of his passes last year. His yards per attempt fell. His touchdown percentage and did not improve. His interception percentage worsened. His touchdown-to-interception percentage fell. The only statistic at which he improved last year was in passes attempted.
All that said, yes, Cutler is not Grossman. That’s lame. But no matter how hard I look, I can find nothing to substantiate the idea that his play improved last year.
by Chibronx on Jul 13, 2009 9:15 AM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
I gotta agree with that last part.
As much as I like Cutler as a player, I have to agree that he showed ZERO improvement as the 2008 season progressed. If anything, he got worse from week one to week 17. Was it bad coaching from Bates? diabetes? Learning to play with diabetes? a QB hitting his ceiling as a player? horrible defense/special teams? hard schedule?
I don’t know. But he played a lot better in September than he did in December. And a similar thing happened in 2007.
And BTW: The fact that our medical staff missed his diabetes diagnosis, missed Marshall’ hip injury and missed the cumulative amount of weight our players lost in 2008 makes me wonder if we have the best medical staff? Do we have the equivalent of Slowik and O’Brien on our medical staff?
I agree with you about the trainers
I can’t understand why we kept this crew after the past couple of years.
"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway
Right.
The journalists all need to take some time off, lest they dig up meaningful stats and put together coherent arguments. God forbid one of them actually writes something not out of peer pressure or to strengthen the momentum of the bandwagon, but based on research he actually did. What is the MSM coming to with these entitled pricks like KC Joyner writing articles and actually backing them up with something substantial…
No stairway... Denied!
by papigrande on Jul 13, 2009 11:22 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks NYC
"They need a hero to tell them that the impossible can become possible..... WHEN... YOU'RE... AWESOMMMME!" -- Rhino the Hamster
Joyner's article is weak
Thanks NYC. To compare Cutler with Grossman is absurd. No matter how you try to slice and dice it, Joyner is way off on this one. Grossman is 3rd string at Houston for a good reason. Too short, slow, hates to get hit, and panics.
Yes and No
Joyner’s article flows directly from his stats and is well backed up in an “objective” sense. KCJ is one of the best writers out there for trying to step back from MSM yap-house and really look at what happens, and in that respect, his article is fine. Cutler DOES have some questionable decision-making reminicent of Grossman, and that was the whole point…. so his statement is factually correct, and at times he will likely remind Bears fans of Grossman.
As you say though, Cutler has a few things Grossman doesn’t…. #1 being he doesn’t have the tendency to panic, run backwards, and randomly heave the ball in some direction (a trait shared with Jake Plummer). Cutler makes bad decisions at times, but it tends to be more about staring down receivers vs. panicked toss-ups.
Stats are cherry picked
and I don’t buy the objective sense. I’ve watched all of Grossman’s games, and there is not one common thread between the the play/potential of Cutler and Grossman.
How often did Grossman throw a bad decision ball?
Is it more often, less often, or approximately equal. That is not to say that they are the same player if that one stat lines up, just that they have a similarity in that regard. I didn’t read it as Joyner saying they were clones, just that they share a similarity.
"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway
KC's comparison of Cutler and Grossman is ludicrous like you say rocko1,
but one thing that caught my eye was the fact that when Grossman or Orton had had a bad game the fans throw them to the wolves? If Cutler has a few bad games such as he had in Denver and begins his pouting sessions then will the fans stick with him or throw him under his own Bus?
by bfree2bronc on Jul 13, 2009 10:31 AM MDT up reply actions
Chicago fans are no different from Bronco fans.
They didn’t like cheering for a panicky half-wit like Grossman.
Orton left Chicago with well wishes from several fans and teammates. Orton was not despised or thrown to the wolves in Chicago. Saying Orton’s rep and treatment in Chicago were similar to what Grossman received is wildly inaccurate.
In Denver, a lot of people liked Cutler, but he had his share of vocal critics as well.
Let’s try to remember things as they were/are, not the way Joyner falsely describes them.
In complete agreement
i have lost all respect for Joyner after this statement – “Cutler will make Bears fans remember Rex Grossman. He’ll make just as many crazy passes”. He obviously never watched the ridiculous play of Grossman. Orton had nothing but respect and support from the vast majority of Bears fans. To try to lump Grossman and Orton together is nothing short of absurd as well.
No offense to Rocko, but Bears fans define knee-jerk
The annual hand-wringing over the quarterback here is a bizarre, fascinating ritual. A lot of this is facilitated by the local media, which lean hard on any story they can find. And let’s face it, the Bears have been more or less bad for 30+ years. Chicago is less of a football town then Denver — given the quality of play and the alternatives, why shouldn’t it be — and the fact shows in a quarterback-centric understanding of the game. Nobody talks about line play, or schemes. It’s only ever: the QB, Brian Urlacher, Devin Hester, Lovie. A circus-like atmosphere.
And no offense to you, either, McGeorge. It was nice to agree with you above. Looks like the difference of opinion has mostly to do with your optimistic nature and my habitually skeptical outlook.
Over the top Chibronx
I believe both cities are great football towns. Denver had a great run with Elway. Chicago, over our considerably LONGER history has had some great runs as well.
True. And it once had a booming middle class, a thriving industrial economy and a wonderful mayor named Harold. But we’re talking about today.
I always thought Denver’s football-obsessiveness had a lot to do with the Broncos being the only game in town. Back in the 1960s, they were the laughingstock of the AFL, but people loved them, because there was nothing else to love. Chicago, meanwhile, was fresh off the ‘59 Sox. It had some record Cubs disappointments, compelling players by the handful on the ’Hawks, and a basketball team that would one day when 6 of 8 titles (all while Denver has, you know, never been to a final). During the past 4 decades, those teams have often been very good, and the Bears have often been very bad. Calling Chicago less of a football town wasn’t an insult. If I’d grown up here, I wouldn’t have been anywhere near as into the Bears as I was into the Broncos as a kid. Why would I have been?
I'll be the first
one to criticize the Bears management for the way they have run the team since Jerry Vanisi left. There’s a lot to criticize. When you state that Denver is the better football town, you are really criticizing the Bears fans which I believe is over the top. Then you bring up the economy, middle class and Harold Washington of all mayors????
Sorry, Rocko. Bad job on my part. I love Chicago. I brought up Harold Washington and the manufacturing economy to point out that things change (per your comment that Chicago has a longer football history). That was confusing.
Here’s where else I spoke poorly. When I say Denver is a bigger football town, I mean no dis to Bears fans and no compliment to us Broncos fans. I’m just pointing out that Denver is an easier place to be a football fan — better team over the course of my life, and fewer alternatives for one’s spectating pleasure. Now, I’m not very sentimental, so to me, that’ s not an insult to Bears fans. I’ve never been much for the idea that there’s something special about being a die-hard, stay-true fan. People have hobbies, and sports is one of them.
All I’m saying is that Bears fans have been treated horribly by the management. They have had more compelling teams to root for in their home town. Neither of those things is true of Broncos fans. Chicago is a less enthusiastic football town because being a fan has paid so miserably since the Kennedy years. That’s not a criticism of manhood or heart. To me, the only stakes of someone being a serious football fan are this: I can talk about football with them, in lots of detail, for a long time. After a decade-plus here, I still have no friends who can talk about football in anything approaching the amount of detail I would like. It’s frustrating because I like talking about football. But I make no value judgments. If the Broncos had had 15-20 losing seasons over the course of my life (as opposed to 6 or 7 or whatever the ridiculous number is), I wouldn’t be anywhere near as obsessed with them. No way. It’s only human, and no insult to anybody.
Thanks for the explanation Chibronx
With only one championship over the past 45 seasons, many fans are fed up and frustrated. Bringing in Cutler is viewed as a positive step by the media and many fans. As a critic of the trade, i view our problems are mainly at the top of the organization. We traded a player who worked his azz off, kept his mouth shut(during the Grossman saga), improved each year, and had one of the biggest hearts on the team. in my playbook, that’s the guy you do everything to keep and help succeed. Imo, the long term direction of the team will not change for the better, until there are significant changes at the top.
I just gotta say,
you are by far one of the best visiting poster’s rocko. You and the charger’s poster who was hanging out here last year.
"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway
Thanks jibbons
As a Purdue grad and Orton fan I hope to have an extended stay. MHR and the members have been great. The in depth analysis/discussion about football are second to none.
I think you are welcome here rocko
I like your passion for the game and your take on things. You are fair minded, reasonable, and an intelligent contributor here, IMO.
"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."
Like I've said before rocko
anytime you’re around my neck of the woods, you’re getting a beer on me. I love your attitude, and I wouldn’t say it’s easy being a fish out of water in these parts (for the lack of a better phrase). I enjoy reading your comments because you’re always well educated and well versed in your points. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with disagreements. I think the argument at hand is one of silly nature.
While there are great points had by Chibronx and yourself, we all know at the end of the day that you believe the Bears are number 1 and I believe the Broncos are number 1. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with it. It’s how we are as people. All I can say is that I appreciate you not making immature claims and tossing insults around (as so many people have done). And for whatever it’s worth I happen to have great respect for the Bears franchise. I have an Urlacher jersey I wear with pride because of the man it represents, not the colors or team.
Peyton Hillis is also referred to in early Greek mythology by his other names such as Zeus or Poseidon.
Thanks for the kind words Calijoe
The upcoming 2009 season will be an interesting one to say the least.
Cutler and Grossman
My read of Joyner’s article was that Bears’ fans are fickle and will treat Cutler like they did Grossman after Cutler loses a few games. I did not get the impression that he was direclty comparing Cutler and Grossman as quarterbacks other than Cutler will make just as many crazy passes as Grossman.
In short, he’s telling the Bears fans to wake up and smell the coffee. Fans should not be all that excited about Cutler.
Agree & Disagree
I think he also hypothesized that the fact Chicago fans are in love with Cutler for the most part might give him a better chance of being accepted by fickle fans despite the bad decisions he is going to make (as all QB’s do to varying degrees).
I think he is saying that Cutler will do something dumb with the ball just about as often as Rex did, but his upside will keep the Chicago fan’s on his side.
"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway
The Title Says It All
From Joyner’s article:
Sorry, Bears Fans, Cutler Isn’t the Answer
He does hypothesize:
Chicago’s fan base is so in love with him that they will forgive the nutty throws he makes in ways that they never forgave Grossman.
Still, I think his bottom line is Cutler is NOT all that and a bag of chips.
I'll buy that.
I think there is a widely held perception that Cutler is an elite QB, and while I would agree that he is an elite talent, he still has a lot to learn/prove. Ultimately, I think Cutler will make Chicago fans more happy than angry, just not to the degree the optimists expect.
"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway
The Bears' Kool-Aid is just a sweet
as the brand served in Denver. We drink about the same amount as the Broncos’ fans. The fans in chicago can be just as “fickle” as the fans in any other NFL city, including Denver.
Can anybody help?
I don’t mean to hijack this thread, but my browser has gone whack and I can’t see background, graphics, the color changes showing new comments…even the font colors are some new aged crunchy yuppy tints. One of two things happened— I let Explorer update its self— though this seems the unlikely culprit because it worked fine for a while— or my girls hit some short cut on the keyboard that I can’t figure out.
Its driving me nuts.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance-- that principle is contempt prior to investigation."
-- Herbert Spencer
by PredominantlyOrange on Jul 13, 2009 9:16 AM MDT reply actions
Try
Try going to control panel then appearance and personalization. maybe your girls changed something in there or restore to an earlier time when it did work.
"Sanity is the realization that everyone is insane to some degree." Me
Thanks...
…nothing seems to work. I’m wondering about a virus because now I get ‘blue screen’ errors just out of the blue (excuse the pun).
I can usually solve this type of crap, but this one has me totally perplexed.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance-- that principle is contempt prior to investigation."
-- Herbert Spencer
by PredominantlyOrange on Jul 13, 2009 11:33 AM MDT up reply actions
Are you using Internet Exploder
or one of the non-Microsoft browsers? If you are unsing Exploder try switching to Firefox or to Google Chrome.
by SlowWhiteGuy on Jul 13, 2009 1:28 PM MDT up reply actions
+1
Mozilla Firefox is what I use.
"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."
Whoo Hooo!!!
Thanks for all the tips. The problem: Accessibility Options were set to high contrast. That solves the browser issue. I didn’t realize that Accessibility can be adjusted in the control panel, too.
As for the blue screen errors, the jury remains out…
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance-- that principle is contempt prior to investigation."
-- Herbert Spencer
by PredominantlyOrange on Jul 13, 2009 6:03 PM MDT up reply actions
Ideas
1. Update your drivers (filehippo.com has a good “Update Checker” program")
2. Do a “System Restore”
3. Uninstall your monitor and video card then reboot.
4. Clean and compact your registry (I use Uniblue Registry Booster)
5. Check your power supply and cords.
6. Limit the number of programs you are running. Subset, check how many programs automatically load when you boot and eliminate the ones you don’t normally use.
I'm not sure what the argument is on Joyner
Other than McG’s kneejerk insults and profanities, what is the argument here? Grossman had terrible decision-making. He also was tossed under the bus, and Chi does not have a good record with developing its QBs. Joyner didn’t say that Cutler’s other qualities were similar to Grossman.
Responded Joyner: "It’s funny. Whenever I say Cutler will remind Bears fans of Grossman, they get all up in arms. All Grossman did was take Chicago to their first Super Bowl in years and the Bears fans couldn’t run him out of the starting spot quick enough. They’ll win with Cutler but man will they grit their teeth when he blows a game or two with his over the top risk taking.
Well, that’s true. Grossman did get them to a SB. He also had terrible decision-making and that cost him his job (rightfully). As has happened with Cutler here, folks tend to only remember the bad with Grossman. Yes, there was lots, but he also did some good things. And, yes, Cutler will win some games and they will pull out their hair when he loses some games. Since Joyner specifically says, ‘a game or two’, what’s the argument?
Hillis/Moreno in '09
My sentiment EXACTLY!
Broncobear, you hit the nail on the head. Joyner said NOTHING that was not true. The quote you put up clearly shows that. I am puzzled by the “knee-jerk” reactions of fans. The comparison he was making was only in the decision-making of the former and current QB . . . NOT the skill level.
My only question is how long the “honeymoon” will last with the Chicago fans? How many “bad decisions” will Cutler have to make before the city of Chicago turns on him? And more importantly, how will Cutler respond to ANY criticism or booing from the crowd? I look forward to watching the Bears next season.
Go Broncos!
"The men who have done big things are those who are not afraid to attempt big things, who were not afraid to risk failure in order to gain success."
- B.C Forbes
Anyone watch NFLN's "Top 10" show?
Yesterday, I watched the “10 Best Gunslinging Quarterbacks” and “10 Greatest Comebacks” episodes, and you’ll never guess who wasn’t on either of those lists.
Actually, you probably will. In fact, it should be very easy.
In the “Gunslingers” episode, there is no mention of John Elway. Weird, because I always thought he was under that class of “gunslinger” that all the MSM would-be poets like to describe quarterbacks as. Anyway, I watched as the likes of Darryle Lamonica (who?), Brett Favre (the winner, which kind of makes me want to scream), Jim Kelly (?!?!?!?), Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, and Warren Moon finished ahead of the Greatest Ever.
In the “Comebacks” episode, I watched no less than four 49ers comebacks, three of which were from meaningless regular-season games (and one against a winless Saints team). At least three of the games were from Monday Night Football, and none of them were taken from the 40+ that Elway engineered. I will give them some leeway because it seemed like they were going for comebacks from down by huge amounts of points rather than last-minute heroics, but still, the 1991 escape job against the Oilers would more than fit that criteria, and it was a game that actually counted.
So, send your hate mail to the NFLN like I have. Troops, consider yourselves rallied. Huzzah.
No stairway... Denied!
I wonder why you guys love Joyner and find him completely rational while Football Outsiders are a bunch of subjective flaming douchebags.
Chris at Smart Football disagrees with KC, have at him.
Personally my favorite QB stat is ANY/A, of which Cutler has a 6.9 rating and Orton a 4.5. Peyton Manning’s career ANY/A is 7.1, Matt Hasselbeck’s 5.8 and Alex Smith’s 4.7 for reference.
Cynics
RaiderPete, there are plenty of cynics here at MHR. Any of us are willing to take shots at poorly supported articles, posts, comments, etc. We are also well aware that stats can be meaningful or meaningless depending on context. There have been spirited discussions on this site regarding the Air Yards stats and their relevance.
Thanks for the link.
I think you missed Joyner’s intent. Merely to say that Cutler is not “The Answer.”
Actually I love both Smart Football and FO
but in this case I think Chris is mis-construing what Joyner is saying. I don’t see Joyner as saying that Cutler is equal to Grossman. What he said was that Cutler would probably make many of the same kind of poor decisions that infuriated fans when Grossman was QB. I think most would agree that Cutler is a better QB than either Orton or Grossman were in Chicago.
I do think Adjusted Yards per Attempt is a useful statistic in looking at QB performance. As for Air Yards, while I love the Advanced NFL Stats site, I think this stat is overblown in terms of its significance. It does indicate how much of a teams passing yardage was the result of YAC versus the pass itself. What that actually means is an open question. Brian has begun to acknowledge that air yards may be a measure of the system more than the QB. Nonetheless, it is an interesting number to look at.
As I have said before, cutler is not as good as his proponents advocate nor as bad as his detractors claim. He is not a top 5 QB, but probably is a top 10. Whether that is enough for Chicago to overcome poor pass protection, a mediocre running game and an aging and often injured defense remains to be seen.
by SlowWhiteGuy on Jul 13, 2009 3:54 PM MDT up reply actions
Air yards is helpful in determining WR vs QB success
Like the case of 2007 Brett Favre who benefitted greatly from Jennings and Driver. It’s interesting that for as much as people here say that Cutler was successful in large part because of his receivers (although most people give tons of rightful credit to the o-line) Orton benefited far more from YAC than Cutler did last year.
As for what Joyner was trying to say about Cutler it seems pretty clear:
I also don’t understand why there seems to be such excitement about Cutler. Yes, he threw for over 4,500 yards last year, but that was in large part because he put the ball up a whopping 616 times. His 9.8 vertical YPA was lower than that of 19 other QBs last season, and his 4.6% bad decision rate (a bad decision being a mistake by the QB that leads to a turnover or a near turnover) was easily the worst of any QB. He was also the offensive leader for a team that blew a three-game division lead with three games to go. . . .
He only put up big numbers because he threw so much (not true, his attempt averages are all good), his vertical YPA is bottom third of the league (what does vertical YPA mean in relation to QB skill or performance?) and his bad decision rate is the worst in the NFL (now we’re just making stuff up). He clearly paints Cutler as at the very least a below average QB and like you said he’s a top 10 QB who’s 25 years old. If Joyner can’t see whats to like about that then he’s a lost cause.
Good Points, RP, all of them.
But I can’t blame Joyner for trying to make sense of the reinvention of Jay Cutler. He’s supposed to carry the Bears to the Superbowl all the sudden when he couldn’t beat the Raiders at home (no offense meant here other than losing to the Raiders at home in any year is a bad thing), he couldn’t make a difference against the Buffalo Bills at home with the playoffs on the line, and he’s never had a winning record at a major level. He hasn’t done anything to deserve his current savior role. He’s widely being viewed as the QB that he can be, rather than the QB that he currently is. Its like Broncos fans making Superbowl plans on the back of Knowshon Moreno. Its a little premature. All we’re seeing here and among some of the bloggers and pundits is a backlash against the complete reinvention of a player.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance-- that principle is contempt prior to investigation."
-- Herbert Spencer
by PredominantlyOrange on Jul 13, 2009 4:59 PM MDT up reply actions
Baltimore really needs a #1 WR now.
Saw that Mason retired unexpectedly from the Ravens this afternoon. Baltimore had been considered a trade partner for Denver for BM and now they don’t have a #1 WR with Mason hanging them up.
BM for Suggs or better yet N’gata?
I love BM, but we need a pass rushing OLB or NT just as bad if not worse than a #1 WR. Baltimore has to be desperate all of a sudden.
Interesting,
do you think Baltimore would consider trading N’Gata for an injured BM? I don’t know if he has that kind of value until we see his hip in action.
"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway
Not a chance
Why anyone thinks B-more would even consider trading a NFL top-5 NT for B-marsh is beyond ridiculous… there is absolutely no way Newsome does anything but politely decline, hangup, and then laugh his A$$ off that Denver would even propose that.
Remember all HT’s lessons he’s been giving us on the critical nature of 3-4 NT? Why would the Ravens even consider getting rid of one of the best (and youngest) in the game for a WR with prima-donna tendencies and the potential for a long-term suspension at the next whiff of trouble.
Baltimore wouldn't trade him straight up
But we could see what else we would have to give up with BMarsh to get N’gata. We are desperate for a NT and relatively deep at WR, while they are deep at DL & desperate at WR. A deal could be worked out, at the very least I don’t think the Ravens FO laughs at the audacity of our interest.
People can use statistics to prove anything, 87% of all people know that.
As long as
it isn’t Ray Lewis. I doubt the Ravens would trade N’gata and I don’t know who else they have we would want over our current squad. Suggs is entering his 7th year. But you’re right that the Ravens have gotta be desperate. Maybe a three-way trade with another team?
Well here's my homegrown stat
It’s called the GTRPMO index: God That Really Pissed Me Off.
I don’t have detailed numbers, but this index has been fairly high when I’ve watched Jay Cutler the last few years, and I suspect it was similarly high for Bears fans watching Rex Grossman. In fact I personally experienced a high GTRPMO index when watching Grossman hand that Super Bowl to the Colts.
Examples of spikes in my GTRPMO index for Cutler include the unforced fumble that led to the Hochuli debacle, numerous ridiculous throws in the red zone, and chewing out Royal after overthrowing him by ten feet. The GTRPMO index is always higher for a player that has Cutler’s upside, BTW, because the OWCHB index (Oh What Could Have Been) is similarly high.
Interestingly, I don’t recall the GTRPMO index being anywhere near as high when Plummer was our QB, even though his reputation when he arrived was such that I should have expected it to be through the roof.
I don’t know what Orton’s GTRPMO index for Bears fans was.
Disclaimer: even though I never said here that Cutler = Grossman, nothing that I said should be taken to imply that Cutler = Grossman. Such a comparison would be absurd, since there’s a totally different number of letters in the two names.
by ShawnDenver on Jul 13, 2009 4:31 PM MDT reply actions 2 recs
Of course that left-handed throw by Plummer was pretty silly too
Almost forgot that one.
+1
that rant was hilarious, I thouroughly enjoyed it. Well done.
"It's okay to eat fish, 'cause they don't have any feelings" - Kurt Kobain
by JChase8410 on Jul 13, 2009 11:49 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
If KC is such a stat expert, why is he putting his argument on the (tireless) win-loss ratio and loss of the division over the final three games of the season? Even ignoring the Broncos defensive performance, a rational observer of the Broncos season without a preformed opinion would see that we were nearly running 75% or so out of passing formations for the second half of the season due to injuries in the running game. What does that lead to? More interceptions across the board as opponents played zone coverage and didn’t rush the passer. This also led to interceptions in the red zone and deep in our own territory where no team respected the run. The lack of running game (essential to Shanny’s offensive schemes) led to the utter failure to compete in cold weather games towards the end of the year.
I admit that Cutler may very frustrating throws, but given that the entire offense and defensive flaws were put upon his back down the stretch, he did an outstanding job for a QB of his age and experience.
Smoke and Mirrors
Linmoo, I was surprised by an earlier post (a month ago?) that showed the team statistically ran the ball a lot more than my emotional recollection. I agree it felt like 75%, but if I recall correctly it was statistically about 53% in fact. The biggest problem with the run game seemed to be that Bates abandoned the run game in the red zone. It was especially noticeable in the 3rd quarter where Bates in general abandoned the run, leading to a LOT of passing in the 4th quarter. I also seem to recollect that our running game ranked 12th (Chicago was 16th?) …Anybody remember that post & discussion?…I want to say it was Broncobear? Bshrout? Colinski? [[Shoot! I’m gonna have fun hiding my own easter eggs this year]] Here’s a good one though by Bshrout The Best Defense is a Good Offense
Respectfully I disagree that the entire offense and defensive flaws were put upon his back. This is, after all, a team sport.
Not quite correct
Last year the Broncos had 387 rushing plays, 616 passes, and 21 sacks for 1015 offensive plays.
that’s 38% run, 61% pass and 1% sack.
by SlowWhiteGuy on Jul 14, 2009 8:39 AM MDT up reply actions
I don't think that Cutlers
desire to play or desire to win has ever been questioned. I agree that he gave his best effort and yes he did remarkably well for his age and experience in the system.
"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."
The thing I love and hate about stats
with the right set of stats added (or not added), you can make ANY quarterback look like an all-star.
Peyton Hillis is also referred to in early Greek mythology by his other names such as Zeus or Poseidon.
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