Nolan's Added Value

by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 25, 2009 10:23 AM MDT

To their credit, many denizens of MHR have been able to maintain their positivity despite the uncertainty surrounding this offseason. My responses to this optimism have ranged from acceptance to sardonicism.

One of popular MHR positions that I've often questioned has been the near-universal praise of Josh McDaniels' selection of Mike Nolan as the Broncos' Defensive Coordinator.

Given what I knew about Nolan, I couldn't understand the optimism. I thought it was another example of the 13-3 crowd believing that Pat Bowlen's money was magic and that once Nolan cashed his first check, he'd magically transform into Buddy Ryan.

But the fact was, aside from being familiar with his resume, I'd never really taken the time to study Nolan's track record as a Defensive Coordinator.

To assess Mike Nolan's track record, we created an index called the Greg Nolan Defensive Coordinator (GNDC) Index. I say "we" because I couldn't have done it without the help of one of my interns, Aimee, who compiled the data and who always turns heads on Wet T-shirt Wednesday.

The GNDC Index evaluated how Mike Nolan's defenses fared compared to NFL averages in six categories: Points Allowed, Yards Allowed, Opponent's Third Down Percentage, Sacks, Interceptions and Fumbles Recovered. These differences were then normalized and multiplied based on relevance. For example, since we know firsthand that the amount of yards a defense surrenders doesn't matter as much as how many points it gives up, points allowed is weighed more heavily than yards allowed.

Year	Team	Nolan DC?	GNDC Index	Special Notes?
1992	NYG	No	-38.0
1993	NYG	Yes	23.7
1994	NYG	Yes	3.2
1995	NYG	Yes	-3.4
1996	NYG	Yes	10.9
1997	NYG	No	41.7
1996	Wash	No	-8.7
1997	Wash	Yes	11.0
1998	Wash	Yes	-31.4
1999	Wash	Yes	-1.6
2000	Wash	No	23.0
1999	NYJ	No	-1.0
2000	NYJ	Yes	7.7
2001	NYJ	No	9.9
2000	Balt	No	61.3
2001	Balt	No	19.8	Nolan WR coach
2002	Balt	Yes	-4.6	Ray Lewis played only 6 games
2003	Balt	Yes	46.2
2004	Balt	Yes	25.9
2005	Balt	No	11.7

I'm the first to admit that the GNDC isn't perfect. Some important stats might have been excluded and the multiplying factors are quibble-worthy. But the fact that 2000 Baltimore Ravens defense, arguably the greatest of all time, logged the highest score in this analysis provides a measure of validation for the methodology.

So what value does the GNDC add? I believe it can give us some insight into whether or not Greg Nolan can turn a defense around. And I think the GNDC Index suggests he can. Consider Nolan's GNDC values during his tenure as DC with the Giants. He was hired in 1993 and his efforts translated into a 60+ point swing in GNDC value.

If you compare the GNDC values logged in the years before Nolan was hired as DC with the values logged during Nolan's first years as DC, the numbers almost always go up. The lone exception was in 2002, Nolan's first year as DC for the Ravens. In that year, Ray Lewis was injured and only played in 6 games.

Lewis' injury brings up an element that can't be overlooked: Personnel changes. Because the GNDC Index was calculated solely on statistics, any personnel changes weren't accounted for. I heard Josh McDaniels recently acknowledge that 47 of the Broncos' 80 players are new to the team. As we well know, many of those are on the defensive side of the ball.

I was disappointed to see that, in most cases, a team's GNDC Index value increased in the season following Nolan's departure. I think there are several ways to interpret this, but for now, I have other things that need attending.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

I'm gonna need to see proof of the Intern and Wet Tshirt contest

"Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence."

Vince Lombardi

by Denver_Native on Jul 25, 2009 11:34 AM MDT reply actions

Greg Nolan?

Our DC is MIKE Nolan. Otherwise, nice article.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Doc Bear on Jul 25, 2009 12:41 PM MDT reply actions

brain fart

I went to graduate school with a Greg Nolan. Guess I had him on the brain. To my knowledge, Greg Nolan hasn’t ever coached or played football.

But who will guard the guards themselves?

by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 25, 2009 12:57 PM MDT up reply actions

Aimee needs a raise.

"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."

by KaptainKirk on Jul 25, 2009 1:46 PM MDT reply actions

the experience invaluable

The experience she’s getting should help her land a job, even in this economy. She’s nearly fluent in Arabic. And if this experience doesn’t pay off, she can always dance exotically. Trust me on that.

But who will guard the guards themselves?

by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 25, 2009 2:50 PM MDT up reply actions

She gets one from me.

Sorry. Sorry about that.

; )

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Jul 27, 2009 12:47 PM MDT up reply actions

Nice post AJ, I'm not a stats guy so,

I’ll take your word on it—-However like the other bad boys
in the neighborhood, I’ll vote for Aimee in the next contest.
Rec’d

Real Power, comes with the realization that One cannot change the Moment;
only ones perception of it: Atitude! JQM

by UB3 on Jul 25, 2009 3:54 PM MDT reply actions

Awesome

I’ll let you decided which article points I liked the most. :D

It's Orange Crush time. And no I am NOT talking about the soft-drink.
Which I beg the question: "Can liquid really be... soft?"

3 TE Set = 3 losses or less.

Do it MickeyD... 13-3!!

by USMCWall on Jul 25, 2009 8:26 PM MDT reply actions

Nix the Fumble recovery

One of the things that Football Outsiders has found is that fumble recovery is totally random. So I think you might make this more accurate if you take that part out.

by Fan in Exile on Jul 25, 2009 8:59 PM MDT reply actions

I took out the fumble recoveries

…and little changed. So I guess fumble recoveries aren’t that material.

It diminished Nolan’s turnaround job with the Jets somewhat.

I think a more interesting result is what it did to the Baltimore Ravens’ defense. In 2000, the Ravens’ D recovered 26 fumbles – more than twice the league average. In 2002, when Ray Lewis played only 6 games, including fumble recoveries gives the Ravens’ D a rating of -4.6, implying it was worse than average – at least to the extent that this index is relevant. When you exclude the fumble recoveries, the Ravens’ D score on this GNDC raises to 5.4, suggesting it was above average.

What role did Ray Lewis’ hypermanic style play in the Ravens’ ability to force and recover fumbles?

But who will guard the guards themselves?

by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 26, 2009 8:41 AM MDT up reply actions

Fumble recoveries may be random....

but fumbles causes is not. And since recoveries is random it functions as a useful and easy surrogate for fumbles caused.

by SlowWhiteGuy on Jul 27, 2009 7:32 PM MDT up reply actions

that's kind of what I thought, but whatever

But who will guard the guards themselves?

by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 27, 2009 7:47 PM MDT up reply actions

Perhaps my dictionary is old or something

But where I come from random means things don’t correlate well. As in there isn’t a relationship between the two so it’s random.

by Fan in Exile on Jul 28, 2009 8:36 AM MDT up reply actions

in either case, I took it out

However, as I discussed a couple of comments above, I find the results of removing the fumbles and then considering the results through the lens of Ray Lewis’ participation, suggests, at least as far as Ray Lewis is concerned, fumble recoveries don’t seem to be random.

But who will guard the guards themselves?

by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 28, 2009 8:45 AM MDT up reply actions

Good post AJF

I’d like to see the Broncos D, 1990 – Present on this scale…. Hmm

First team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! and then some, right? I think four and we oughtta let someone else have a fair shot : )

by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Jul 27, 2009 2:04 PM MDT reply actions

I'll see if I can get someone to calculate that

That’s 19 years though…so if the lights dim in your residence or workplace, don’t be surprised. It’s just our superduper computers working.

But who will guard the guards themselves?

by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 27, 2009 4:08 PM MDT up reply actions

LoL!

And I only type that when I actually do.

= )

First team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! and then some, right? I think four and we oughtta let someone else have a fair shot : )

by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Jul 27, 2009 6:50 PM MDT up reply actions

here are the results

First, a caveat, Aimee said that she used NFL.com as her data source and she noticed some inconsistencies in their data. She said she saw different points per game for Denver for the same season on different pages. So….I couldn’t ask her to find a different data source. I just couldn’t. Sorry. I just can’t justify any more time on this, at least with her (evil chuckle).

Anyway, if you’re willing to bet that Aimee used the “correct” points per game surrendered in the analysis, then here are the results for the Denver Broncos. The machine won’t let me paste in Excel cells into comments so here are the rankings in a less aestheticly-pleasing format:

Year GNDC Index
1991 39.07917754
1992 -8.472176167
1993 6.529150753
1994 -36.84982991
1995 -20.2927005
1996 26.65221885
1997 20.26030251
1998 8.350270802
1999 12.91877778
2000 8.37401603
2001 7.482721641
2002 -10.92913994
2003 7.061286606
2004 11.19965859
2005 11.15647192
2006 5.512749028
2007 -17.26335672
2008 -36.10759288

One other thing, Aimee said that she didn’t calculate the Index based on the NFL’s average, but rather the median. And she said, when there wasn’t a clear median, she averaged the 16th and 17th ranked teams stats.

The worst scores were logged last year (no surprise) and in 1994. I can’t remember any specifics about that defense other than I believe there were still some pretty good players on the team (Atwater, Smith, Meck…maybe Simon Fletcher). But the index only considers average points per game, average yards per game, sacks, interceptions and opponents’ third down conversion percentage. So…I’m not sure how relevant this is.

But who will guard the guards themselves?

by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 27, 2009 6:29 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs

Still

Thanks (and tell her thanks) a lot for the details!!!

They actually look close to what I fathomed. I haven’t looked, but I’m almost 100% that Simon wasn’t still there in ‘94, and don’t recall if Karl was either…. Nonetheless, that’s awesome to have, to help illustrate the ‘overall’ of a defense. Definitely a lot better of a scope than yards allowed, or points allowed, by themselves…. You’re awesome for doing/having her work those up…. So is she! (which I’m sure both you and her are aware of)

Right on JF

First team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! and then some, right? I think four and we oughtta let someone else have a fair shot : )

by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Jul 27, 2009 6:57 PM MDT up reply actions

I'll pass it along

I wish I could have passed along the numbers from next season.

But who will guard the guards themselves?

by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 27, 2009 7:17 PM MDT up reply actions

Me too!

= )

First team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! and then some, right? I think four and we oughtta let someone else have a fair shot : )

by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Jul 28, 2009 7:41 AM MDT up reply actions

Well…with McD heading up the offense and Nolan the defense, we’ve got two of the essential guys behind the best offense ever and one of the best defenses ever. So?

"C" is for Championship...that's good enough for meeeee!!!

by PosterNutbag on Jul 27, 2009 5:37 PM MDT reply actions

not much longer

Reasons abound for both optimism and pessimism.

The best part is, it’s not May or June. We’re nearing the end of July and training camp is officially upon us. Very soon, the number of firsthand accounts will swell as MHR’s associates venture to Dove Valley and report their observations. Then, it won’t be long before the San Francisco game, when we get our first glimpse into the Braintrust’s plans.

Cincinnati isn’t that far off.

But who will guard the guards themselves?

by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 28, 2009 8:35 AM MDT up reply actions