But looking over last years games, I would say 1 out of every 5 passes Cutler threw were forced or thrown into double or triple coverage. Most of the time he threw to Brandon Marshall, even when Stokley, Scheffler or even a RB was wide open.

By watching the games I watched again, I saw Cutler relying heavily on two seperate passes: the deep ball and short screens into the flat (roughly 80% to a RB or FB). Cutler’s mid-range game was hardly there last year. In the instances where we were down at half time, Cutler completely shut off the mid-range game altogether. It’s not crazy to see why teams would usually have an answer to our pitiful offensive play calling last year by halftime. It doesn’t take a genius to see that the short to mid game didn’t exist after half time (assuming we weren’t in the lead).

what’s your point? I’m not saying that to be rude, only trying to understand your overall point. Are you saying you agree with Burke and FO? Because I could counter many of the points you just made just as you just countered many that broncobear just made. We could do this all day long and not come to an agreement because it’s all speculation. So I’m asking, what’s your point or overall analysis? That the Broncos will win around 5 games? That they will win 2 less games than the Bears? Both?

And I do agree that it will be interesting to see what happens this year with the Broncos and the Bears, especially as it relates to these two quarterbacks.

Burke writes about Cutler’s picks as well, he was put into much more difficult positions than Orton was. Cutler didn’t have the luxury of the dump off pass.
Look, if you’re going to claim that Burke is your authority for Burke’s decisions, have at it. Logically, that doesn’t hold up, though.

I’ve done an analysis of the ‘game manager’ QB in the past. The idea that Cutler was ‘in much more difficult situations’ than Orton ignores most of the factors on both sides. Burke’s writeup of that is shallow and shows a lack of understanding of the position and how it’s played. Sorry.

But Chi has been running a short-field run-based version for the WCO. Grossman threw some deep, but the essential playcalling hasn’t changed. Grossman grabbed pine for not making throws – short or deep.

My impression is that the predictions were way off from the results. Thanks for sharing.

I just put this together real quick to get some more conversation going and hear other’s thoughts and analysis of these numbers, predictions, etc. I know we have some true statisticians on here that can provide a much more detailed breakdown of the results, its analysis and meaning (if any).

- Average discrepancy of (+/-) 2.8 wins

- 14 records were guessed low
-——- 9 of those were guessed low by 2 games or more
-——- 3 of those by 5 games or more
- 18 records were guessed high
-——- 11 of those were guessed high by 2 games or more
-——- 5 of those by 4 games or more

On averge, they were off last year by 2.8 wins (+/-) for each team; not an insignificant amount. 2.8 wins could’ve meant the difference for 9 non-playoff teams making the playoffs last year (Jets, Broncos, Cowboys, Redskins, Patriots, Bears, Bucs, Saints, and 49ers). Granted, the discussion can go both ways. Maybe they’re wrong about the 4.9 win prediction for the Broncos; maybe it will be 2.1 wins, although highly doubtful.

The point is, not only are their overall record predictions only “sort of close” at best (at least based only on 2008’s numbers), but there are far too many changes this offseason on the Broncos, and consequently historical stats and factors that are either no longer relevant and/or are not accounted for, to make their metrics and prediction of much use this year (speaking only for the Broncos).

As I stated on another thread, I understand this is their job and any fan is going to be a bit more optimistic, but I think there are many here at MHR that have provided a nice balance of optimism with rational thought and reasoning for why we should at least be hopeful for better than 5 wins. And I’m definitely one of those people! :-)

Still, thanks for digging that up, Pete! You’ve certainly sparked a lot of lively debate and discussion and that’s alway fun, especially during this very very very slow time of the football year.

Which obviously has nothing to do with the QB’s, but among the many additional or counter comments I could make to all of this stat talk, that would’ve been one of them. Which is that the defense, much of the team in fact, is new and therefore stat comparisons to last year and their relevance on this year, for the most part, are a reach. Which was also one of broncocbear’s points…. stats based on issues that don’t exist in a vacuum are inconsistent (at best and irrelevant at worst).

They are both way off base because they’re using stats for an altogether different team. Especially the Broncos but also the Bears. It’s just more MSM gobbledygook.

Cutler, playing behind Chi’s O-line, can only be expected to win about one more game than Orton. Likewise, Orton, playing behind Denver’s O-line, can be expected to win about one game less than Cutler would have, in last year’s offensive scheme.

Of course how either of them would fare in McD’s new scheme is pure speculation at this point.

Cutler was not often sacked. That is a TEAM stat. not just a QB stat. Include a factor for sacks and a more accurate and normalized analysis occurs. Swap the sacks with Orton (the Bears TEAM) and Cutler is pedestrian.

Granted, Orton had Forte. The Broncos now have a very good STABLE of running backs plus Moreno. PLUS another potentially good TE, much improved defense, etc. Again, I reiterate that Burke’s stats are meaningless.

Just my feeling, but I think that Cutler will cause the Bears to lose more games because he is not a team player.