Knowshon's Upcoming Payday

In the next few days, Knowshon Moreno will sign his 1st Professional Contract and join his teammates in Training Camp (Hurray!). Lets take a look at some numbers to figure out our young Running Backs Contract value.

Last years #12 Pick was our own Ryan Clady. On 7/25/2008, he signed a 6 year, $14.75 million contract. The deal includes $11.415 million guaranteed. Another $2.55 million is available through incentives. 2009: $2,141,250,  2010:$2,569,500,  2011:$2,997,750,  2012:$1.994 million (Voidable Year). In 2013, Ryan will become a FA.

The Panthers drafted RB Jonathan Stewart at #13 in 2008. On 7/26/2008 he signed a 5 year, $14 million contract. His deal included $10.795 million guaranteed. Another $6 million is available through incentives.2009:$2,743,750,  2010:$2,092,500,  2011:$2,441,250,  2012:$2,790,000, 2013: Free Agent.

I included Stewart here because he is a RB and the draft range is so close that it has value looking at the numbers.

For 1st round picks, the increases in bonus amounts are typically in the 8 to 12% range. In round numbers, the current signing bonus amounts for a 2nd round selection is $1.8 million on a 4 year deal, which most teams are now routinely using. That would make the 1st round bonus average around $3.2 Million.

Knowshon figures to get a deal that approaches 6 years at $20.68 Million with around $14.25 Million Guaranteed. Don't forget that Signing Bonus, and incentives such as Rookie Of the Year, 100+ carries, 1000+ yards, Pro Bowl appearances, League Leader in rush yards, 10+ TD's....and you begin to get the picture.

#10 pick Michael Crabtree is holding up negotiations for the other draft picks to sign their contracts. Some Draft "expert" claimed he should have been drafted at the 3rd pick position and that apparently convinced young Michael that he is worth 3rd pick money. I can't envision any NFL team overpaying a Gimpy Receiver that kind of Green.

In 2008, the #3 Pick was Matt Ryan. He was signed to a 6 year contract with an overall value of $72 million and $34.75 million in guaranteed money. Accordingly, the #10 Pick in 2008 was Jerod Mayo. He signed a 5 year deal(rather than the 6 year maximum allowed by the NFL's CBA) worth $18.9 million, including $13.8 million in bonuses and guarantees. That is a lot of Cabbage to dicker about.

In figuring the deals in the 1st round, the numbers used were from the 2008 draft. On a 4 year contract, the minimum salaries for each player are locked in at the following numbers for this year:

2009: $310,000
2010: $395,000
2011: $480,000
2012: $565,000

So before any bonus discussion, the player is assured of a contract worth $1.45 Million minimum value, although not guaranteed.

The negotiation of hard numbers becomes all about the signing bonus, except for the 2nd round, which due to the rookie pool, causes teams to shield part of the guaranteed amount as a one- time incentive; using the easiest categories allowable for the player to earn their incentive money. This prevents it from counting against the pool number.

In virtually every round, the "backside" of the contract becomes a secondary but important negotiation. An escalator outlines how a player will be paid in the 4th year, in the event he reaches certain performance levels. These are based on when he achieves certain levels of performance and what levels of performance are set as qualifiers.

Some teams will use a 2nd level escalator; a higher dollar amount based on superior performance such as a Pro Bowl or more playtime. If the player is involved in say 80% of the plays, he should be compensated accordingly. There are currently around 10 teams that use 2nd level escalators based on meeting playtime and performance goals.

The theory of the 2nd-level escalator is that, although it is certainly a tall task for an incoming player to make a Pro Bowl or cumulative playtime of 80%, the lure of a higher bonus escalator is one that’s a nice incentive for a player to have, no matter how hard it is to attain.

As to how high, these 2nd-level escalators usually raise the 4th year to the 2nd-round Restricted FA tender, which is estimated to be $2 million in 2012.

The point of the above is that each team is different and there is no standardization in these rookie contracts, making the negotiation much more about the "backside" of the contract than the signing bonus.

Negotiations are all about 2 things: leverage and risk. The escalator is way to allocate risk in a player contract negotiation, incentivizing the player’s upside while protecting the team’s downside with a fourth year of the contract buying out the vagaries of RFA.

The Rushing Leaders 2008 and their Salaries.

1.  Adrian Peterson  2009: $755,000 + $1.555 million roster bonus  (1760 yards in 2008)
2.  Michael Turner  2009: $1 million
3.  DeAngelo Williams 2009: $645,000                
4.  Clinton Portis  2009: $745,000
5.  Thomas Jones  2009: $900,000 + $100,000 workout bonus

Now, this has relevance in, that if KM is among the league leaders in rushing, it would stand to reason, that he would like or maybe even deserve to be paid accordingly. If I'm Moreno's agent, I'm going to want an escalator that pays my client a $500,000 bonus for rushing 1500 yards or more in one year. That plus his minimum salary would put him in the earning range of the top RB's. If he acheives that status, he gets paid for it, and if he doesn't, the team doesn't overpay for a poor performing player. A definite win/win situation for the negotiators.

All I have left to say is; Crabtree, stop being a Diva so my Running Back can get to Camp!

Sources: National Football Post , Rotoworld