All I want for Christmas is an average defense
by broncospriestess on Jul 30, 2009 5:01 PM MDT
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We've heard it over and over: with the return of our offensive line and receivers, with healthy, more physical running backs, and with new play calling in the red zone, our offense is bound to be awesome. If our defense improves to only average, we are headed back to the playoffs. Those who drink the blue and orange Kool-Aid even believe we will finish 13-3. It sounds good. But I respectfully disagree.
Not because I don't think our offense will be very good. But because I don't think our defense will improve to average. Maybe it will become feared and respected over time. Certainly some of the building blocks seem to be in place. But I believe that this version of the Broncos defense, although improved, is destined to remain in the lower echelon this season.
Improving to average means stepping above a number of other teams with physically gifted, highly motivated players taught by some of the best football coaches in the world. I imagine that improving by several steps in the NFL is not as easy as it sounds. I think it is more realistic for us fans to hope that the Denver defense improves from awful to below average, giving us a chance to win some shootouts and improving the morale of the team as we no longer get blown out whenever the offense has an off day.
One way you can have an average defense is for it to be manned by great players who are poorly coached or under motivated. I don’t hear anyone saying that is the case with the Denver Broncos.
A second way to an average defense is by having a team full of serviceable role players with a great scheme, coaching, and team leadership. I think a number of us hope that it will work out this way for the Broncos. But this seems like wishful thinking to me. Even assuming Mike Nolan is a great defensive coordinator, we have to realize that it is going to take some time to overcome the revolving door culture of the last few years. Over the last five years, has any other team gone through as many defensive coaches as Denver? And the best schemes are not learned overnight; they are assimilated over the span of several seasons. Great teams don’t reinvent the wheel every year by throwing a bunch of stuff against the wall to see what sticks. They have a plan, and it’s going to take a while before our team learns the new scheme well enough to completely compensate for a lack of skill.
The third way you can end up with an average defense is to have average players with average coaching. Please remember that when I use the word average I am talking about those who are in the middle of a bell curve of an elite group of players and coaches. And if we assume, as I do, that the Broncos coaching on defense will be about average (at least in 2009), then we will need a team full of average starting defenders to end up with an average defense. And I don’t think we’re there yet.
Each defense has 11 starters. Backups play, of course, especially on third down, but for the purpose of this analysis I am only looking at the starters. Because teams play different schemes, you can’t, for example, rank the top middle linebackers from 1-32, but I’m also ignoring the differences in schemes and only looking at how each Broncos starter compares to his peers. Using a bell curve, the middle 16 out of a group of 32 would be considered average, the top eight would be above average, and the bottom eight below average. So basically you can rank each starter as a Pro Bowl (or close) level player, an average NFL starter, or a serviceable player without (hopefully) extreme flaws.
I don’t think most teams have all average starters. Due to the nature of the draft, most average teams would have more like six average starters, two or three great players, and two or three serviceable role players.
Does the Broncos defense have two great players? Obviously Bailey and Dawkins, if they remain healthy. But, due to their age, I think that has to be considered a big if. I think there is a good possibility one of them misses significant time with an injury. So I count one or two Pro Bowl type players.
In the average starters category I count Goodman, Williams, Thomas, Andra Davis, and Hill. Plus whoever fills in for Champ or Brian if they are injured. So that is five or six average starters. I know that I have read that DJ Williams is considered an elite linebacker. I don’t live in the Denver area, so I don’t get to see all the Broncos games, and I can only make a conclusion based on what I see. And I have seen some great hits, but I have also seen him overrun plays or get wired to blocks downfield. Maybe he was injured those days, but overall he looks pretty average to me.
In the serviceable players category I would put Ayers and Dumervil (or Moss or Crowder or Reid), who would be learning a new position, plus Peterson and Fields. I don’t think it would be realistic to think that Powell or McBean or Baker or Rulon Davis or Pedescleaux, if they win a starting position, could be considered an average NFL starter their first year of playing. So I count four serviceable players.
So one or two elite starters, five or six average starters, and four serviceable role players, along with average NFL level coaching, is my prediction for this year. Not awful, but not quite top twenty either. And I’m afraid that, with a poor pass rush and linebackers on the slow side, our defense will prove vulnerable to a short passing attack this year.
Of course, this is training camp season. The skies are blue, the sunsets are orange, and we are still undefeated this year. So win me over with your optimism! Please feel free to correct, debate, or disagree... in a gentlemanly way, of course.
No oakland raiders were harmed in the making of this post.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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LMAO
Love your closing. Great post.
I’m in the Denver area and I do get to see all the games.
1. DJ is the real deal. Add him to your list of above-average players for sure.
2. Hill is borderline above-average. He’s a great CB and still has it…is he the answer moving forward? No, but this year I predict he will be solid across from Bailey which is more than I can sway for how Bly did last year.
3. Nolan and the defensive coaches really are better than average. Nolan alone being our DC is a huge upgrade. Yes it takes time for new coaching to really pay dividends, but I really think “Average” overall is very doable this year.
I don’t want breakaway speed. I want break-some-poor-fool-as-I-bowl-you-over power getting 6 yards off a play that should have been stopped for 2 at most.
sorry, but DJ's average
Sadaraine, I’ve read alot of your comments and you always seem to make good points. But, I’ve got to disagree with you here.
This is what DJ has working for him: 1) A wonderful, promising rookie season 2) John Madden’s claim that DJ Williams is the only high school football player that he’s ever seen who could have made the leap from high school directly to the NFL 3) Incredible measureables.
But he’s never even made the Pro Bowl. And I don’t want this to devolve into a debate about the relevance of the Pro Bowl, but, suffice it to say, the league is filled with Pro Bowlers.
I believe based on Broncospriestess’ criteria, you have to label DJ Williams as average. Consider it from this perspective: If the slates were wiped clean and you were a GM building your team for this season (future be damned), which inside linebackers would you choose ahead of DJ Williams? According to Broncospriestess’ criteria, you only need to find 8. I’d take, in no particular order, Lofa Totupu, Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, Barrett Ruud, Jon Beason, Demeco Ryans, Ray Lewis or Bart Scott. And that’s just off the top of my head. In fairness, more of the league is going to the 3-4, so maybe you need to pick more than 8. If that’s the case, I’d take Urlacher, D’Qwell Jackson, Vilma and maybe Nick Barnett ahead of DJ. Maybe even more…
We all want DJ to be elite, but so far, he hasn’t proven that he should be considered in that group…yet. Sure, he has every excuse in the world. I say that earnestly. But, so far, DJ hasn’t lived up to the promise of that rookie season.
I think that with DJ, perhaps more so than with any other Bronco, reality has been distorted by familiarity bias.
I don’t disagree with your other points, so I won’t address those.
By the way, great post Broncospriestess. Great reasoning. Great writing. Just great. Rec’d.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 30, 2009 5:53 PM MDT up reply actions
Thank you
I agree DJ has flashes of greatness, along with great speed, strength and size. But I haven’t seen the consistent level of play equal to that of the outstanding players you mentioned.
By the way, where is the recommend button? I don’t get a lot of time on the computer and I’m still unfamiliar with all the features here. The rest of my family thinks computers are to be shared, mostly for listening to music. I guess we need a dedicated football computer!
"People who work together will win, whether it be against complex football defenses, or the problems of modern society." - Vince Lombardi
by broncospriestess on Jul 30, 2009 6:19 PM MDT up reply actions
rec button
The rec button is between the blue bar that reads “Comments” and the end of your post.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 30, 2009 7:05 PM MDT up reply actions
Rec Button
If you want to rec a comment, click on actions (at the bottom of the comment) then click on rec. With five (I think) recs, a comment turns green.
The sage is full of anxiety and indecision in undertaking anything, and so he is always successful.
Chuang - Tzu
Sorry, but I have to disagree with your DJ assessment
Here’s the tackles per game for the 9 players you mentioned Tatupu – 6.5, Mayo-8.0, Willis 9.8, Ruud- 7.8, Beason 8.6, Ryans 7.5, Lewis- 7.4, Scott- 5.4 and Urlacher- 6.7. Only Willis (what a beast) has a higher tackles per game average over the past 2 seasons. (I was really bored and actually did the math) DJ’s average per game is 8.6 same as Beason. Now, I am definitely not saying that tackles per game is the only measure of a LB and we could argue scheme, # of opportunities, leadership and defensive rankings to infinity but considering the guy was asked to change positions in each year (and now again this year) how can anyone say he doesn’t belong in the above average group?
"as in football so in life"
by asinsoin on Jul 30, 2009 7:29 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
AJ
I agree with your comments, but I would like to add, that DJ is finally going back to play in the position he played in his rookie year. That is also the position he was drafted for, and the position he played all through college. Vilma got picked right before DJ in the draft, and he got higher acclaim in their rookie year. I really felt (Objectively), that DJ had a better year than Vilma that year. I don’t remember if Vilma went to the Pro Bowl or won the DROY or not, but DJ was robbed. He had a career year and now that he’s back at his original position, you will see him among the team leaders in tackles once again. I will go on to say that this defense needs him to have a year like that.
Priestess,
Very, very good post. You are right in your realistic viewpoint. I am in the 13-3 crowd. I am optimistic every year (somewhat blindly, I suppose), but until we aren’t, I will stay that way. I usually sober up from my Kool-Aid buzz in time for the regular season. Then I can realistically realize where our record will be, so that I won’t be disappointed easily. Win or Lose, we will have a better team this year, but you are right, once the cancer is removed, the rehab still takes time. Rec’d
"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."
DJ was robbed
Kaptain, DJ was robbed. He should have won AFC Defensive Rookie of the Year. In my view, Vilma’s winning of the award was just another blatant example of East Coast bias that continually shafts the Broncos. As you know, Vilma was drafted by the Jets. He’s a good player, but that year, DJ outplayed him.
Asinsoin, thanks for passing along those stats. Although they’re interesting, I think this is an example of the stats not telling the whole story. I agree with Broncospriestess’ observations on his play. How often do you see DJ making the tackle four yards past the line of scrimmage? It happens frequently.
I realize that, among Bronco fans, my opinion of DJ is in the minority (nothing unusual there). But like I said above, I find other Bronco fans’ views on DJ Williams as curious and the best example of familiarity bias.
There’s an interesting post here that outlines the player ratings for the video game, Madden 10. In the post, the OP links to a Madden fan site where gamers complain about the game. I didn’t read all the comments, but I’d bet that there was one player on every team that some fan somewhere was complaining that EA Sports had undervalued or “disrespected.”
I pulled this from one of the comments:
I DON’T KNOW WHERE YOU GOT THIS INFORMATION, BUT YOU HAVE TO BE HALF RETARDED TO BELIEVE THESE RATINGS. I MEAN COME ON SERIOUSLY? CHAD GREENWAY 83? FRICKIN BEN LEBER 66! EJ HENDERSON 80! HOLY HELL THIS IS ONE OF THE BETTER LINEBACKING CORPS THERE IS RIGHT NOW. DO US A FAVOR AND JUMP OFF A F*C#IN* BRIDGE AND STOP POST GARBAGE LIKE THIS!
I don’t know about you, but I think EA Sports was being very generous by giving EJ Henderson an 80. What’s more likely, this Viking fan inflating EJ Henderson’s skill because he’s familiar with his play or that most football fans are underappreciating EJ Henderson?
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 30, 2009 9:29 PM MDT up reply actions
As I mentioned AJF
There are many variables to consider and you are correct that DJ made many tackles 4 yards off of the ball ( as do many of the top NFL linebackers) but my point is He still made more tackles than many of the so called top lb’s and therefore should be considered as at least one of them. I could argue the opposite and that due to an undersized DL and a passive scheme it’s remarkable that he has been as productive as he has been. You are certainly entitled to believe he isn’t but consider the outcome if you put DJ behind a bigger DL with an aggressive scheme and 2 reliable safeties behind him…. oh yeah that’s what JM is doing, guess we’ll see what happens.
"as in football so in life"
I could defend DJ to the death...
….much like he has tried to do for the Broncos. I challenge you to find more than a handful of games, including in 2008, where DJ wasn’t the hardest working player on the field, making amazing tackles and catching people laterally he had no business catching.
THe problem, he was always chasing from behind, or making up for Webster, or some other scheme related problem. Not impressed by his tackles? Be impressed by the fact that those weren’t HIS tackles to make. He made tackles for Winborn, Webster, even the safeties. And when Bate’s system called for funneling runners to DJ (once they got through the line..sigh…) he made EVERY tackle, leading the AFC and coming in second in the league.
You have a very natural cynicsim, Jerry, and I don’t begrudge you that, but in this case it is running smack dab into a belief that DJ deserves BETTER from Broncos fans, because we of all people have been WATCHING him every week!
The stats aren’t perfect, and the accolades from pundits and analysts aren’t there, so I don’t expect anyone outside of Broncos fans to truly appreciate what DJ has been doing every week for the last three years, toiling in obscure and nonexistent defensive schemes. But within Broncos nation? It is my mission to make sure that DJ is held in the same esteem as he holds his own job.
On a sidenote (and maybe some of the ‘old-timers’ can help me with this viewpoint), it seems that this argument is eerily reminiscent of arguments discounting the worthiness of Randy Gradishar (lots of tackels, played in a scheme where he was ‘supposed’ to get a lot of the tackles, etc., but not actually that talented.)
Thoughts?
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 31, 2009 12:44 AM MDT up reply actions 4 recs
and awesome post Priestess!
rec;d.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 31, 2009 12:45 AM MDT up reply actions
I won't fight you to the death...
About DJ.
Asinsoin has had some interesting thoughts that have made me reconsider my rating. Maybe he will do great this year playing in a great scheme behind an immoveable nose tackle. A lot of my feelings about him came from the game at San Diego when I didn’t know he was injured.
"People who work together will win, whether it be against complex football defenses, or the problems of modern society." - Vince Lombardi
by broncospriestess on Jul 31, 2009 7:41 AM MDT up reply actions
Very well
“We’ll call it a draw.”
And we’ll even refrain from kneebiting! :)
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 31, 2009 11:00 AM MDT up reply actions
skepticism
You have a very natural cynicsim, Jerry
I know this sounds pedantic, but I’m not cynical, I’m skeptical. There is a difference and that difference is important to me.
Having said that, what you’re saying about DJ’s ability and skill being disguised by his team’s ineptitude could be right on the mark.
However, I remember a 5-game stretch last season when DJ was out and the Broncos went 4-1 and the defense looked much improved. I think it was during that stretch that many of us (or at least me) grew to appreciate Wesley Woodyard. I know the quality of the competition could have played a role in my impression that the defense improved.
But I think it’s a fair question.
During that stretch, I believe the Broncos played the Raiders and the Chiefs. It would be interesting to compare how the defense fared in all the games against Oakland and KC, two with DJ and two without him.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 31, 2009 8:25 AM MDT up reply actions
That 4-1 Stretch
It’s interesting on so many levels. There are many ways to look at it, and I think some of the questions regarding that period will get some answers this season:
1. Did the play of Peyton Hillis (as a true offensive weapons) help put pressure on opposing teams? (I know we’re talking about the D here, but nothing in football happens with no impact on other parts of the game.)
2. What about that improvement in defensive play? DJ was out and Woodyard looked good. Was this what DJ has become?
3. Or was it more? Woodyard looked good, but it seemed like the whole defense looked better. Were the rookies just eager to make their mark, regardless of the situation? Would this fit with Champ’s statement about not seeing the fight in some players eyes? Did a number of the veterans just stop really fighting?
4. Styg mentioned that DJ was making the tackles that OTHER players should have been making. Did Woodyard and the kids benefit from having Spence Larsen in the middle? He doesn’t have the elite measurables, but perhaps a solid tackler with very good instincts took pressure of the other players.
I think that stretch offered more questions than it answered; but those questions are (at least in my opinion) at the REAL heart of why the defense was so bad, and why there’s potential for a decent (but not elite) defense. Was it strictly talent? Scheme? Heart? I tend to think a little bit of all three, and I think all three have been improved (at least a little). The cumulative effect may be greater than the sum of the parts.
But I could be wrong…I just hope I’m not. :o)
"Don't feed the trolls. Remember to be polite. And please show self-restraint in comment length!" -Me, to myself, because I need constant reminding.
Stu -
You have put in words thought that have been bouncing around in my head for months. Thanks for the good post. My favorite point/question was number 4.
Very good points that matched with my opinions and thoughts perfectly. Nothing to add but praise. The questions still remain unanswered but at least they are now organized in my head. I love MHR.
My image is the Circa 1960-’61 Broncos home uniform sock. Some what folk lore to me ... but referred to as the clown sock by my Dad.
by YellowStoneBronco on Jul 31, 2009 10:35 AM MDT up reply actions
First Knock
Guru’s first impressions from TC practice #1 isn’t very favorable towards the DL. I had fingers crossed (and it’s still really early)…so I guess I’ll just cross them a little harder.
Glad I could help put some of the thoughts in order! I’ve had the same issue of not quite being able to articulate what I thought, right up until that post. Hopefully we start to see some answers develop.
And I love the socks!
"Don't feed the trolls. Remember to be polite. And please show self-restraint in comment length!" -Me, to myself, because I need constant reminding.
point #4 is very important
it wasn’t just DJ that was out for those games…Webster was out too.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 31, 2009 10:59 AM MDT up reply actions
ooh
sorry about the words. Yes, skepticism is what I should have said, and I did NOT mean to imply that you believed in the potency of evil.
Also, Disco-Stu answered for me regarding the “stretch”. The only other thing I would note is that Larsen replaced Webster in the middle for those games as well. Webster was some seriously bad Juju.
I remember endorsing Niko for MLB in the preseason, on the belief that if our MLB stayed at home, the defense would be able to play better specifically because the safety could back off a bit, Champ could stop playing safety, and the OLBs could focus on their own gap responsibilities. Larsen fits the “stay at home” LB perfectly.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 31, 2009 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions
+1000000000000000
I could get seriously into debate mode vs AJF and the priestess on DJ, but I really don’t feel like fighting that fight. My opinion differs and I fully believe over the next two years people will be very impressed with DJ. He is a superior talent at linebacker and has been thrown all over the field since he got on the scene. Let’s see what you naysayers think at the end of next year.
I don’t want breakaway speed. I want break-some-poor-fool-as-I-bowl-you-over power getting 6 yards off a play that should have been stopped for 2 at most.
Interesting and well thought out post Priestess....
and here comes the “but” …. but, football is a team game where most of the time the principles of “Synergy” apply and the end result is predicated more on “teamwork” than the individual components. This is demonstrated every year when some previously unheralded defense rises unexpectedly (see Miami Dolphins 2008 #3 vs 2007 #23) and even our own team for brief moments last year (when several starters went down and the reserves produced better results).
Another concept that I believe applies here is the “Tipping Point”. I believe that last years defense lacked 3 critical elements #1) a cohesive defensive scheme #2) Consistent on-field leadership or a “field general”( Think about the 2006 Bronco’s D, they go 4 straight games without giving up a TD then Al goes down and they are a totally different team.) and #3) Safeties that were actually safeties. I believe that this is why JM made signing BDawk his first priority thereby addressing 2 of the 3 elements in 1 sweet move. I too agree with Sadaraine that Nolan will be much better than average thereby addressing the 3rd element in the tipping point.
So.. where will we end up this year? I have absolutely no clue. My best guess is somewhere between 12-20 my hope is in the top 5 and my fear is where we were last year…. but I do believe that we have addressed the most critical elements first.
"as in football so in life"
I understand what you're saying
And I agree that football is a team game where synergy really matters. And obviously some players have a gift for lifting the level of those around them. But players still have to play. And how they play matters more than any other factor. And great players play great. I think the 85 Bears would still have won the Super Bowl if they had played a base 3-4 scheme or a Tampa style defense.
Do we really know Nolan will be much better than average? Weren’t we saying the same kind of things about our defensive coordinator this time last year? And the year before that? All I’m saying is that his system sounds good to me, but I think it will take some time, years not weeks, for it to completely sink in and become second nature.
"People who work together will win, whether it be against complex football defenses, or the problems of modern society." - Vince Lombardi
by broncospriestess on Jul 30, 2009 6:32 PM MDT up reply actions
regarding Nolan
I felt the same way as you until I had one of my interns do some research.
Nolan seems capable of “turning around” a defense in one season. And by “turning around” I mean, he seems capable of making the defense above-average (the research I saw defined “average” differently than you did).
He saw the most success overseeing the Baltimore Ravens’ defense. But few would say that those teams had average talent. Indeed, Ray Lewis in his prime could be the most disruptive defender ever. Regardless, Nolan was successful in New York and Washington. His success seemed to moderate with time, however.
Regarding your other points about history (and optimism) repeating itself, I really had no opinion of Slowik until the season began. But I was excited about Coyer and about Jim Bates. I think Jim Bates’ relative success in Miami and relative failure here supports your suggestion that players trump scheme. His scheme failed when he didn’t have Jason Taylor.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 30, 2009 7:13 PM MDT up reply actions
All good points.
My personal belief is that the difference between the great and the average frequently comes down to instinct, sustained effort and focus. This explains why many players with lesser physical attributes such as size and speed outperform their larger, faster counterparts. Instinct cannot be motivated and explains why it does take several years in the same system for a player to reach their potential. Effort and focus however can be motivated both by good coaching and field leadership. Good point on the 85 Bears they could’ve lined up in a 2-6-3 and dominated and Nolan may or may not be better, his track record says he will but who knows how the season will turn.
"as in football so in life"
Nice first post!
and I agree that we will be below average on defense – at least in terms of the traditional measures. That is, we will be below average in total yards.
But that is not due to a shortage of talent. That will be by design. I believe that McDaniels, Nolan, et. al. refuse to cater to the mainsteam measures of success. They don’t care about total yards, or even points. They care about wins and the stats that lead to wins. On defense that’s turnovers, passing efficiency, and to a lesser extent, sacks.
Everything they are doing on defense this off-season seems to be focused on those three elements. Over and over we hear about the emphasis on creating turnovers, stripping the ball, picking the pass. We see most of the FA and draft focused on the secondary, especially ball hawks. We see the emphasis on “pressure” defense.
Whether you believe in them or not, we have a contrarian coaching staff on defense. They are not building this defense to rank well. they are building it to complement the offense and win games. Expect this team to exceed expectations while the players are panned.
That's a great point SWG.
If indeed you are right, then we as fans will really have to adjust our thinking to fit in line with what the Broncos will be doing defensively. In a way, it seems like the O and D might be switching roles from last year. The D will be the high-risk, high-reward unit, while the offense will try and be the steady hand for the team, grinding out time of possesion and holding on the ball.
In terms of coaching and scheme, I don’t think I can overstate how much our D of the past two years has altered my view as fan—to the point I’m not really sure what a disiplined Bronco D would even look like. As of late, they have been completely aimless. Between Bates and Slowik, there rarely ever seemed to be a “scheme” to speak of. Many players commented on how lost they felt, and how the numerous missed assignments were often the result of confusion. If we do become a turnover focused D as SWG mentioned, then that’s a large chunk of the battle right there. Now the players know what is expected of them; they have clear goals and measurable objectives. Clarity and purpose for the D can make a huge difference, especially since the two past years have been “uh, just don’t let them score too much” type defensive schemes.
even further
we have a contrarian coaching staff on defense
I’d even go as far to say that we have a contrarian coaching staff period, on both sides of the ball and in the front office. Just look at the draft. The manner and the timing of the Broncos’ selection of Alphonso Smith and Richard Quinn flew in the face of convention.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 30, 2009 9:33 PM MDT up reply actions
Nice work
Just a note – McBean isn’t changing positions. He was drafted to play 3-4 DE and ran into a logjam at PITT. I think that DJ is stellar – runner up DROY his 1st season and masters each position when he’s asked to play it, and those require a special player. But the thrust of the article is excellent. Rec’d
Hillis/Moreno in '09
Maybe you're right about DJ
And maybe I’m not so logical and rational about him. About this time last year I participated in a survey about who was going to be the defensive player of the year. I wrote in DJ Williams and was laughed out of the place. I don’t remember how I responded after about the 10th insult, but it was something witty like, “We’ll see who’s laughing in January!” Anyway, my faith in Williams was misplaced.
And although he has made a lot of tackles, when I have seen him play he has been driven downfield too often for me to give him elite status. And maybe someone has some stats available, but I don’t know that his sacks, interceptions, and forced fumbles would be above average. I love his versatility, but I was rating him strictly on his play at one position. I would love to be wrong, and for DJ to be voted all-pro this year.
And thanks.
"People who work together will win, whether it be against complex football defenses, or the problems of modern society." - Vince Lombardi
by broncospriestess on Jul 30, 2009 8:48 PM MDT up reply actions
He just needs a little help.
For any player to be truly effective on either side of the ball they have to trust that their teammates are going to be where they’re supposed to be and handle their assignment. That split second of hesitation is the difference between a pick, a ff or a tackle and getting your clock cleaned. Just knowing that Bdawk is behind you will make a huge difference……. I hope.
"as in football so in life"
+1
"Reality continues to ruin my life." - Calvin (Calvin & Hobbes)
by RockyMtnHigh on Jul 30, 2009 9:36 PM MDT up reply actions
Plus...
…he’ll be attacking more. He is very good on the attack.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance-- that principle is contempt prior to investigation."
-- Herbert Spencer
by PredominantlyOrange on Jul 30, 2009 9:47 PM MDT up reply actions
He's still nursing an injury,
it may or may not weigh heavy on him (DJ) the beginning of the season, but I look for him to flash in the twilight of this episode. He may not be the AllPro but he will contribute to this already exciting freshman defense that will IMHO astonish people this fall.
by bfree2bronc on Jul 30, 2009 10:30 PM MDT up reply actions
Great post and rec'd
The one thing I’d say at this point is, the Broncos’ defense is probably more of an unknown going into this season than at any other time I can remember. I honestly believe they’ll be better than last season, but that would be hard not to do.
But I think they could be anywhere from mediocre to significantly above average, depending on whether several key players with physical gifts can make those gifts matter at their respective (sometimes all new) positions. Those players include Smith, Williams, Dumervil, Reid, Moss, Thomas, and Ayers. Some of them are just starting; others are getting a new chance at a new position, and one – Williams – has done an incredible job just keeping his head above water, having to play a new position every single season. If even half these guys have the kind of impact their talents predict they could, I think the Broncos will be at least an average defense in 2009, and probably a little above.
What really excites me is a year or two down the road with all the promising young players we have on the defensive side of the ball.
key point
I honestly believe they’ll be better than last season, but that would be hard not to do.
That’s very relevant context.
But who will guard the guards themselves?
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jul 30, 2009 9:35 PM MDT up reply actions
To our first question: has any other team went through as many DO's than we did? NO!
How could they if we went through one a year under Shanahan? Next, the new scheme isn’t anythig new, it has been around as long as we are alive. Coach Nolan, Nunnely, Donatell, and Martindale are well versed in the scheme that they are bringing (something that Shanahan could not grasp). And the F/A they brought in are very experienced in the new scheme, only the players that remain from the old regime (Dumervil, Williams, Woodyard) will have to adapt, IMO they will, because the “SCHEME” Shanahan’s defense ran wasn’t the right fit for the players he had. IMO again, I think Shanahan was on the verge of changing to the 3-4 defense, but didn’t have the right coaches to instill it. Back to the drawing board…McDaniels in his wisdom and knowledge (not ego as Shanahan had) has acquired coaches who are every smart, and know the new scheme (3-4) and have worked in it. They acquired players who are well knowledgeble in the same scheme, so, I don’t see what the major malfunction is? 13-3 Baby!!!
Your Orange and Blue conscience
made you spend special time to defend your position on DJ Williams. Because your logic tells you “No” but the Orange Crush Whisper tells you “Yes”!
Will DJ be a top/pro-bowl linebacker this year? Maybe, maybe not… but for the first year (ever IMHO), he has finally been given all the supporting cast that he needs to acheive that.
Our Pragmatism will make us wait and see, but it’s our deep-down hidden Hopes that will end up sending him there.
13-3!
It's Orange Crush time. And no I am NOT talking about the soft-drink.
Which I beg the question: "Can liquid really be... soft?"
3 TE Set = 3 losses or less.
Do it MickeyD... 13-3!!
by USMCWall on Jul 30, 2009 8:38 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
How do you know me so well??? We've never even met!
“Your Orange and Blue conscience
made you spend special time to defend your position on DJ Williams. Because your logic tells you "No" but the Orange Crush Whisper tells you "Yes"!”
I bought an Orange Crush T-shirt last year on E-Bay. But last year’s defense made me put in a drawer. I’m a Broncos believer. But I’m still not sold on 13-3. Not this year.
"People who work together will win, whether it be against complex football defenses, or the problems of modern society." - Vince Lombardi
by broncospriestess on Jul 30, 2009 8:58 PM MDT up reply actions
Im just that good...
…and your username is “broncospriestess”. Any devout worshiper can hear the Orange Crush Whisper.
If you really want to see the light then just sit next to me at a couple training camp workouts… You’ll feel like you’re 10 games into the 98’ season all over again. :D
It's Orange Crush time. And no I am NOT talking about the soft-drink.
Which I beg the question: "Can liquid really be... soft?"
3 TE Set = 3 losses or less.
Do it MickeyD... 13-3!!
Second question: do the Broncos have 2 great starters? Are you pulling my leg? You are givivg me dandruff...
I can feel it falling down my collar…We have the “DOOM”, we have “DJ” and you say we only have 2? What up priestess? Are you on some good drugs??? And..and what about Ronnie Fields? Oh yeah you haven’t met him yet. And…and what about Darrell Reid? Ooooooooooooooooh….you haven’t seen the hit he put on that gu who’s still recovering somewhere in a secret location. And…and, oh yeah, what about Woodyard who by the way has been eating lunch with Andra Davis? Huh? Huh? Man, I can’t even believe I waste my time with you on this, because it is frivolous….Oooooooooooooohhhh, I forgot about Alphoso Smith and Robert (Big Bob) Ayers…What else you want to know??? 12-13th in the league, nothing less from this group, nothing more…offense 12-13th in the league, nothing less, nothing more…what else do you want…balance grasshopper, balance…means…13-3 Baby!!!
Ah, I just finished this post...Hail no, I ain't going to be gentle with this,
You done sold the wolf tickets, and I’m coming to the fight…Ypu gonna get some “Kaaaaaaa-Powell” this year baby, and the if you think there are any clams in this “Crowder” youv’e got another thought coming…and don’t ever think that “Moss” ever grow on you man…wolf tickets…huh…13-3 Baby!!!
Who let you into the Kool Aid BF2B?!
It's Orange Crush time. And no I am NOT talking about the soft-drink.
Which I beg the question: "Can liquid really be... soft?"
3 TE Set = 3 losses or less.
Do it MickeyD... 13-3!!
Tempered Enthusiasm
Well done broncospriestess. However, we have overall MASSIVELY improved both personnel and coaching from last year. We had probably half of the defensive squad last year that should not have been on the field, let alone classified as serviceable players. Slowik’s playcalling was a joke. So, I have tempered enthusiasm that we will have a vastly improved defense. Maybe not top 5, but not cellar dwellars or below 20th.
rec’d for writing and style and not rec’d for conclusions.
Oh
And did I mention our offense turned the ball over and did not get it in for touchdowns? Meaning the defense had to endure long times of possession by our opponents. That the defense, most of whom are no longer here, had few interceptions. That our special teams put the team in extremely poor field position and our opponents in really good field position? Oh my. The list goes on.
Some Impressions
Type of Player:
Loser = 0
Serviceable = 5
Elite = 8
Pro = 10
Last Year:
Position 08 Player Type #
DT Robertson Loser 0
DE Thomas Serviceable 5
DE Dumervil Serviceable 5
LB/OLB Webster Loser 0
LLB DJ Williams Elite 8
MLB N.Williams Loser 0
RLB Boss/Winborn/Green Losers 0
SS Manuel Loser 0
FS McCree Loser 0
CB Bly Serviceable 5
CB Champ Pro 10
Total Score 33
This Year:
Position 09 Player Type #
DT Fields Serviceable 5
DE Thomas Serviceable 5
DE Peterson Serviceable 5
ROLB Ayers Serviceable 5
RILB DJ Williams Elite 8
LILB Davis/Larsen Serviceable 5
LOLB Reid/Doom Serviceable 5
SS Dawkins Pro 10
FS Hill/Smith Serviceable 5
CB Goodman Serviceable 5
CB Champ Pro 10
Total Score 68
Coaching Last Year = 0
Coaching This Year = 5
I’d say that’s a very significant upgrade and depth. Factor in the offense and STs and there seems little doubt we will see significant improvement overall as a team this year.
by Endzone on Jul 30, 2009 10:05 PM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
Great rebuttal EZ. Nice post Priestess.....I dont agree, but nice post...
Upgrades on coaching: Check. Probably one of the BEST staffs in the NFL at the moment.
Upgrades in secondary: Check. HOF player in Dawkins, Goodman and Hill are above average players. No doubt in my mind.
Upgrades in LB Corps: Check. ANdra Davis may not be glitzy, but he has good gap contain and is a sure tackler. DJ is fit, and he is at worst an above average player. We also have some GREAT athletes in the LB corps. DOnt sleep on Darrell Reid. He will be good in this system. WW and Larsen add good depth, and the 3-4 is a better fir for Moss and Crowder, and taylor made for Ayers….who, even as a rookie, is an “average” player.
D Line: Yeah, probably not epic but will be servicable. Fields has been an effectiove NT. Powell is a sure tackler and great against the run when loking at his college performance. Marcus Thomas has continued to get better which is a miracle in itself considering the coaching the last 3 years.
There are a lot of questions for sure, a lot of what ifs, but even if we are around the 20 mark, that would be a great climb.
Nice post and rec’d.
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
Very realistic post
I for one am hoping that we’ll be around 20th in the league on ST and D. That would be enough to challenge that team near the Mexican border. Their name escapes me…
You silly rabbit..
Its the San Diego Charge(d with drug trafficking)rs. Ryan Leaf owns us!!
….sorry, too much?
It's Orange Crush time. And no I am NOT talking about the soft-drink.
Which I beg the question: "Can liquid really be... soft?"
3 TE Set = 3 losses or less.
Do it MickeyD... 13-3!!
Well I thought he was talking about them Cowboys.
"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."
If they keep on playing the way they have since 1996...
…they’re going to start getting called “Mexico’s Team”
It's Orange Crush time. And no I am NOT talking about the soft-drink.
Which I beg the question: "Can liquid really be... soft?"
3 TE Set = 3 losses or less.
Do it MickeyD... 13-3!!
I'll tell you what's silly.
I was thinking of other names to use, like Dark Horse or Oprtimus Bronco, but that’s just getting way too cartoonish.
How about:
OptimusBroncoDarkHorsepower!! Lol.
It's Orange Crush time. And no I am NOT talking about the soft-drink.
Which I beg the question: "Can liquid really be... soft?"
3 TE Set = 3 losses or less.
Do it MickeyD... 13-3!!
Now that's silly USMC
No Kaptain, although you might as well be. They’re both SB contenders every year before reality strikes each team. Which goes along with what this good post is trying to convey: great players with below average coaches make for a very average team. Our average and servicable players with the help of above average coaches will possibly produce an average D this season. I’ll take that over the past 3 years’ performances faster than I can come up with another silly handle.
That's how the Steelers won the Super Bowl, with an below average offense.
What they did have though was a #1 defense…hmmm
Rod Woodson
Was the reason I started watching football. When I was a kid I was a nut about the Steel Curtain and I had no idea what football really was. Shortly after discovering though, I signed my allegiance to the Orange and Blue forever. (BEFORE they got their SB Victories.)
It's Orange Crush time. And no I am NOT talking about the soft-drink.
Which I beg the question: "Can liquid really be... soft?"
3 TE Set = 3 losses or less.
Do it MickeyD... 13-3!!
Have always been a fan of Pittsburg defenders.
Troy Polamalu is my fav Defensive player in the league, followed closely by BDawk. (I couldn’t stop watching the Safety position after Attwater!) Though now that BDawk is a Bronco, that order may change. :D
It's Orange Crush time. And no I am NOT talking about the soft-drink.
Which I beg the question: "Can liquid really be... soft?"
3 TE Set = 3 losses or less.
Do it MickeyD... 13-3!!
It makes me wonder
What would have happened had John Lynch stayed another 2 seasons? He had the youth and athleticism to do it. There would be no BDawk in Denver.
Dude...Troy Polamalu is a monster....and my rant for Rey Maualuga
a little bigger, a little stronger, a bigger monster, and we have to play those 2 fools this year…ouch…
by bfree2bronc on Jul 30, 2009 10:59 PM MDT up reply actions
An above average offense and a below average defense will get you to the playoffs
Which leads to how the MSM argues that Denver has set themselves back several years with having traded away a Pro Bowl QB. I completely disagree with that because of Big Ben. He is the best recent example of how you can perform at an (NFL) average level and still manage to have 2 Superbowl rings within a 4 year period. With KO on our side, we’ll be fine on that side of the ball.
wow...totally awesome post
and…like…you have some way good points that you just have to wonder about…and…maybe you are right…i just hope you arent
you go sis!!!!!!
MHR...and proud of it!
Good argument
but I think you’ve short-changed a few players (Dumervil and Peterson are NFL-average guys, in my mind — though DOOM is a role-player), along with our defensive coaching staff. Are you rating them average because of ability? Nunelly, Martindale, and Donatell are great as position coaches, and Nolan knows how to adjust for the players he has. I think that we’ll be able to move into the middle third of defenses this year (~20) overall, but the key to winning and making a playoff push will be if we can move into the top half in turnovers forced.
That is true
Winning the turnover battle is good for a couple of wins each year.
"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."
We can't know for sure
I rated the defensive coaches as average because they are new. Yes, they all have good track records, but every year an NFL coach with a good track record comes to a new place and crashes and burns. I don’t think we can assume they will be great just because we want them to.
Dumervil is learning a new position. Like everyone else, I love it when he blindsides the quarterback, but how can any of us say we know he will be an average NFL linebacker? How will he do in coverage? How will he respond to audibles? A lot of defensive ends struggle when shifting to outside linebacker.
Peterson I don’t know much about. Maybe you are right about him. I didn’t give him much respect simply because his arrival hasn’t created that much buzz here and a lot of people don’t think he will win a starting job.
"People who work together will win, whether it be against complex football defenses, or the problems of modern society." - Vince Lombardi
by broncospriestess on Jul 31, 2009 7:33 AM MDT up reply actions
from what I read about Peterson,
he was in very real danger of being part of the initial roster purge that dumped McCree, Bly, Webster, etc. He made a case for himself and stayed on.
He also went to highschool (I think) with MCD. Relevant? Hmmm.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 31, 2009 11:08 AM MDT up reply actions
Good post
I agree with all of it (except about DJ, but that’s been covered). The main point is that all of this new stuff is going to take time to get good at, and not just on defense. Even though all the starters on offense return, except at QB and RB (and who cares about not returning a starter from that bunch), they still have to learn a new system. My realistic side says it will be a long but interesting season. My optimistic side says that, since all of the players McD brought in seem to be very intelligent and motivated, the learing curve will be fast. If we can just start 2-0…..
The sage is full of anxiety and indecision in undertaking anything, and so he is always successful.
Chuang - Tzu
Fast start
I think we can start 3-0, maybe even 4-0. After that it gets a bit tougher.
People can use statistics to prove anything, 87% of all people know that.
rec'd priestess
And alot of great discussion…I too believe we will be in the 12-16 rank (at least) for many of the same reasons alredy expressed here…But there was something else missing last year that I am confident will not be missing this year, and Champ said it best in (his) DP article this AM…
“Definitely, I was super frustrated,” Bailey said. "I was really frustrated not to be out there a lot of the time, but another thing is (when) you sit back and watch games from the sidelines, you pick up a lot. You see a lot. You notice what’s going on out on the field, on the sideline, the look in guys’ eyes.
“And I just didn’t see that fight in a lot of our players. And guys need to understand it. Once you lose that fight, it is hard to get that back. That was last year, this is this year, and if guys don’t want to give it 130 percent, right now, today and every day, then they need to go somewhere else.”
We WILL see that fight this year!!!
Really great post...I just hope you're wrong.
I have said many times that Denver’s real problem the last few years had little to do with talent and more to do with a rotten scheme, lack of direction, and the inability to ajust during games. Rotten schemes and lack of direction can make even great players look at or below average—so I don’t think any of us really know what we have as players until we watch them in a better scheme.
With a strong DC, which I believe we have in Nolan, I think these problems can be corected in a hurry. Maybe not overnight, but that’s why we have four pre-season games.
I also think that we are going to see very strong years from both Marcus Thomas and Carlton Powell.
And I fully plan on sticking with this simple philosophy:
During Pre-Season I don’t let either facts or logic get in the way of my enthusiasm!!
.
Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.
I wonder what is wrong with Thomas?
Is he at camp today on the practice field?
by bfree2bronc on Jul 31, 2009 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions
Haven't heard anything.
Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.
Priestess
I must say, I will try to remember this post. It is a PERFECT example of how fans can come to MHR with a (to use the most accurate word) skeptical outlook of the team, but then layout a well-thought, high-class post outlining their concerns. Then, keeping everything clean, a solid discussion can follow. Posts like this are why I come to MHR; most definitely rec’d!
"Don't feed the trolls. Remember to be polite. And please show self-restraint in comment length!" -Me, to myself, because I need constant reminding.
by Disco_Stu on Jul 31, 2009 12:24 PM MDT reply actions 2 recs
+1
Take my advice... I'm not using it!
"If you can't be kind, at least have the decency to be vague."
by BroncTastic on Jul 31, 2009 12:32 PM MDT up reply actions
And by "try to remember"
I mean “try to remember to bring it up whenever the need or occasiona arises.” I’ll remember the post regardless!
"Don't feed the trolls. Remember to be polite. And please show self-restraint in comment length!" -Me, to myself, because I need constant reminding.
Great comment Disco Rec'd
Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.
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