REBUILDING -- a developmental perspective
There are many ways to categorize things. A book by George Lakoff, Women, Fire and Dangerous Things; what categories reveal about the mind, comes to mind when thinking about how we see the world. And it should be noted that I, like other males, tend to remember the title of that book as Women, Fire and [OTHER] Dangerous Things, which says something about my attitudes -- I guess.
What's this about?
Broncobear wrote an exemplary topic HERE which breaks down the Broncos into neat categories but there's another way of looking at the team. That is -- age.
I wish I could say that I had an elaborate entry complete with graphs and pictures but I don't. This is a subject that I had to post because I couldn't find another topic to attach it to.
We know that players develop over time, and the dreaded "upside" that we often talk about is often simply a function of age -- young players become better once they're given experience. So the question of how well we'll perform this season could be re-categorized into one that simply looks at age.
The first thing that one notices about the Broncos is that they're now very young.
OFFENSE
QB - Brandstater (1st yr.)
RB - Moreno (1s yr.), Torain (2nd yr.)
FB - Hillis (2nd yr.)
WR - Royal (2nd yr.), McKinley (1st yr.)
TE - Quinn (1st yr.)
LT - Clady (2nd yr.), Polumbus (2nd yr.)
LG - Lichtensteiger (2nd yr.)
OC - Schlueter (1st yr.)
RG - Olsen (1st yr.)
RT - Harris (3rd yr. - first yr. was lost)
DEFENSE (note: I'm guessing on positions and who will make the team for the defense, which doesn't change the point of this topic)
LDE - Powell (2nd yr. -- lost first year), (?) - McBean, (3rd yr. -- yet to play in regular season)
NT - Thomas (3rd yr.). (?) - Baker (1st yr.)
RDE - (?) - Jones (1st yr.), (?) - Pedescleaux (1st yr.)
LOLB - Crowder (3rd yr.)
LILB - Larsen (2nd yr.)
RILB - Woodyard (2nd yr.)
ROLB - Ayers (1st yr.), Moss (3rd yr.)
CB - Williams (2nd yr.)
CB - Smith (1st yr.)
SS - Barrett (2nd yr.)
FS - McBath (1st yr.), Bruton (1st yr.)
This is a graphic way of demonstrating that we could field a team composed of young players if we wanted to. It wouldn't necessarily be a good idea but we're not going to be forced field an inexperienced team because we do have some veterans. Here they are:
OFFENSE
QB - Orton, Simms
RB - Buckhalter, Jordan
FB - ? -- (roster space limits this position)
WR - Marshall (4th yr), Stokley, Gaffney, (?) - Lloyd
TE - Graham, Scheffler (4th yr.)
LT - ?
LG - Hamilton
OC - Wiegmann
RG - Kuper (4th yr.)
RT - ? - Gorin
DEFENSE
LDE - (?) - Clemons
NT - Fields
RDE - Peterson
LOLB - Reid
LILB - Davis
RILB - D.J. Williams
ROLB - Dumervil (4th yr.)
CB - Bailey
CB - Goodman
SS - Dawkins
FS - Hill
It wouldn't be good if we had to field an extremely young team but there's a number of veterans who will be the starters.
I won't attempt to over-explain the developmental thesis but the basic idea is that teams that MUST rely on rookies and younger (as in lacking experience) players don't do well, but that's all depends on 'how much' they have to rely on those younger players. Teams can be young in terms of depth as long as they don't have to rely on too many rookies in key positions. The real question here is -- do we have enough quality veterans in key positions to carry us?
Curiously, many of the 'older younger' players are on defense and there's still room for them to develop and deliver on their upside. And this could be a good thing. We know that DLs take longer to develop so the fact that we have many slightly older young players could mean that they're ready to break out.
A sub-topic to this post could be summed up as: Are Thomas, Moss and Crowder ready to break out? Although many people feel that some of the aforementioned are busts, it's tough to measure success and particularly tough when DLs have undergone a rough developmental experience such as Bates' Run Contain and Slowik's scheme of last year. In particular, it's very hard to believe -- for instance -- that we simply blundered when selecting Crowder, and this could also be said of Moss, even though many believe that we should have waited to pick him.
I'm not down on traditional categories such as: will we have a pass rush?, etc., but an easier way to look at the situation is through age/experience. The defense's performance in 2007 & 2008 suffered from coaching, scheme changes and a lack of talent. Sometimes a weakest link logic applies and it's hard to point out where the problem is, and everyone looks bad as a result. That's also the saving grace since a number of incremental improvements can yield a major improvement in team success, and especially for defenses.
I won't try to predict but young teams often do have growing pains, but that also assumes that we'll be fielding a team of young starters -- which we will not. The bright side of the story is that we have an enormous nucleus of young talent that will be able to play together and grow. Unlike many fans who see our draft in terms of their own expectations, I see the largest accumulation of young talent in Bronco history.
You can question my Kool-aid drinking tendencies but the proof is in the roster above -- which is why I wanted to present it in graphic form to make my point. We already began the rebuilding project in 2006, even though many of us may not have realized it, and even the Cutler trade helped in terms of bringing more (although not necessarily qualitatively better) talent into the fold. This is a young and very talented team that should get better as they gain experience.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
11 recs |
28 comments
Comments
Agreed
Especially true if previous high draft picks for DEs make the transition to LBs, then the last 3 drafts look solid and set the foundation for many years to come.
by MichaelCushman on Jul 5, 2009 5:32 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
early indications were good
Throwing them into the run-contain didn’t help, and Moss went out early and had to rehab for a year, only to be confronted with the Slowik ‘thing.’ It should be noted that we were guessing that Harris was a bust around this time last year. Rumors had the staff as very disappointed and looking to find a trade partner. He never had a chance — of course — because of his injury, but it sounded plausible.
The difference with Harris is that he plays in a scheme that’s been in place for a long time and he had veteran players and coaches to help his transition.
I expect that there will be some further confusion this year but the infusion of all the veterans will help greatly. And Nolan isn’t going away for a long time (IMO) so we’re going to get the chance to let the DLs develop in a stable environment — for once. It should be noted that run-contain was abandoned during 2007 and we briefly abandoned Slowik’s scheme for a trial run with the 3-4 for a while. We had more than two new schemes in the last two years! Just having a new coaching staff should help them. And the nucleus of (many) young players could catch fire at some point. A little success could go a long ways towards changing their outlook and confidence.
A better, and graphic, way of demonstrating how much we could improve is to look at last year’s lineup alongside this year’s. Which would you prefer, knowing what you know now about Webster, McCree, etc.?
BTW — I was writing about WRs and saw where Colbert ranked at the end of 2008. It wasn’t pretty. Does anyone think we couldn’t be better at evaluating talent this year? Recall that the Colberts of our FA class were bargain basement players that nobody wanted (Wiegmann wasn’t wanted either but fit our ZB well). The previous experiment with high price Travis Henrys didn’t work much better. I see a distinctly different profile now.
"If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". W. I. Thomas
by Colinski on Jul 5, 2009 8:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
regarding both Moss and Thomas
the ‘inexperienced’ category subsumes them both quite well, and I think we may need to throw out traditional developmental timelines for both of them, and set our standards differently. (i.e. I don’t think ‘3 years for DL’ applies here).
Moss: One true productive year at Florida, having suffered from a paralyzing pelvic infection which has had its effects felt well into his NFL career (inability to quickly gain weight, overbalanced body). On top of this he came out early, then entered the familiar track you mention, under two defenses whose ability to teach and inculcate experience appears woefully deficient.
Thomas: Also came out early, and missed significant playing time in his final year (suspension) which effect continued to be felt in his NFL career in terms of conditioning, which cost him additional time on the field due to exhaustion. Then he, too, suffered under two dysfunctional incarnations of defense.
As to a different standard? Hard to say. I know I will be happy if they are the inaugural class that establishes a REAL tradition of defensive consistency in Denver. Production on the field? I think I might just be ecstatic with progress….
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 6, 2009 11:10 AM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
Great reply, styg
You get a rec’d just for fitting in inculcate. If they let me have another, I’d give it for remembering the specifics of Moss’ situation. He might be very good, given a little time and some decent coaching.
Hillis/Moreno in '09
by Emmett Smith on Jul 6, 2009 3:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
for all intents and purposes
We were rebuilding the last few years. I’ll try to find the article that described the distinctly different modes that rebuilding teams employ versus the one that perennial football powers employ, but it’s not essential here.
Rebuilding team mode — constant scheme change and coaching turnover. Young players are often thrown into action before they are ready, and they often fall out of favor with new staff who are looking for different type of athlete. The learning process is hampered by coaching turnover.
Perennial power mode — players are heavily scrutinized for certain traits. Players are groomed over a period of time and aren’t thrown into action until they’re ready. Draftees apprentice under veterans. Coaching staff is long-tenured, stable and have extensive experience with their system.
We didn’t exactly push Moss, Crowder, et al, into action too early (although maybe we did to some degree) but their development couldn’t have been helped by the dysfunctional environment they began their NFL careers under.
I don’t get the impression that any of them are ill-suited to our new scheme, but we might as well consider their first few years as mostly a waste. As you say, styg50, we should throw out the timeline (and the expectations that accompany it) and work on developing them. They may be somewhat overpaid but that’s our fault for not developing them properly, and we can’t recoup the cost anyways, so it’s merely a question of whether they’re better than competing prospects.
[SALARIES: Moss – 660K, Crowder – 460K, Dumervil – 530K (FA in 2010)] These are reasonable, we can’t get a FA for anything near this price, and we have them for a while, too.
Truthfully, we’re probably not going to find better prospects. I don’t want to sell anyone short but the best bet seems to be in putting more time and effort into their development. I trust that Nolan & McDaniels, et al, can use them in a way that maximizes their talents. The veterans we added should help us in the interim, and it would be best if fans’ expectations were tempered somewhat. Expectations were part of the problem, as it led to poor decisions by Shanahan, whose rotating scheme & defensive coaches contributed to the problem.
We don’t have to be a great defense initially, just a decent one. Keeping the core of talent together and working on their development should pay dividends in time. We can’t employ a quick fix now. Our problem is that we failed to retool when we needed to, so we’ll just have to persevere for a while and trust that the reward is down the road.
"If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". W. I. Thomas
by Colinski on Jul 6, 2009 4:42 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd add Tyler Polumbus at RT
Another 2nd year man…
Hillis/Moreno in '09
by Emmett Smith on Jul 5, 2009 5:53 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
re: Polumbus
He’s listed at LT.
Tyler played LT in college, as well as for us last year, so I left him there. He’s another of my alums so I’m also aware of where he played in college. They’ll probably move him over if necessary, and that’s a distinct possibility given the low number of OLs on the active list, but both Kuper and Olsen can play RT so that’s a likely substitution, too.
Polumbus was active for all the games last year, which could be because he’s backing up the most important position. I believe the issues on OL backups are competence (familiarity, skill), handedness (surprisingly), and the number players dislodged (moving three OLs to fill one position may be disruptive). I’ve looked this issue a lot and paid attention to how they handled it last year.
BTW — I didn’t try to resolve positional issues. My main point was to illustrate how many younger players we have. And I wanted to show that the veterans form an armature around which we can develop.
"If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". W. I. Thomas
by Colinski on Jul 5, 2009 7:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a note
Polumbus also took a few (gave a few?) snaps at center in preseason last year. He may be pretty versatile.
Hillis/Moreno in '09
by Emmett Smith on Jul 6, 2009 3:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, I was reminded of that and thought of mentioning it
Polumbus was a talent coming out of HS. His college experience wasn’t particularly conducive to his development since it straddled the coaching change from Barnett to Hawkins. The scouting on him pegged him as a “waist bender,” which is fixable. He competed in baseball and basketball in HS, which tells me he’s more athletic than many OLs. He was also a fairly good student (academic All-Big Twelve as a soph. & junior and 2nd team as a senior).
I don’t have a homer mentality about him — in fact, I was surprised they kept him — but 26 teams contacted his agent after the draft, which is a strong indication that he was fairly highly considered. He was considered one of the top talents remaining on the board when the draft ended.
His somatotype looks good for a ZB OT, so I think he was a good find, even though he didn’t garner much attention. His desire to stay in the Denver area (he’s a Cherry Creek grad., which means something to Colorado residents) was instrumental in his becoming a Bronco.
An added thing in his favor is his work on STs last year. He also fits the New England mold for OTs so I don’t see him losing favor with the new staff. Lastly, he’s played LT his entire football career, so that’s also in his favor.
"If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". W. I. Thomas
by Colinski on Jul 6, 2009 3:40 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Always appreciate your perspective Coliski.
This is a good way (among several) of looking at this year’s Broncos.
I noticed you used the term “rebuilding” above. I take it you are not scared off by the baggage that term sometimes carries. ??? In your opinion, would we still be in a rebuilding mode if we hadn’t traded away Cutler?
by NedBronco on Jul 5, 2009 6:04 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
no
I think the fear of rebuilding led to our avoidance of the process. The Brownco experiment looks absurd now because we failed to rebuild. We addressed this last year in a topic (I focused on team building). I wouldn’t say the FAs were the problem since the draft drought played a bigger role, but the “just a few pieces away from a championship” rhetoric looks nuts now. And to think that the pundits thought THIS draft crop was bad!
"If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". W. I. Thomas
by Colinski on Jul 5, 2009 7:30 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a foolish notion to say a player like Moss or Crowder is a bust.
For crying out loud, they really haven’t had a chance to play. Like you said ski it take a few years for these players to develop. This year will be the tell tell sign for some of them, and if they haven’t grasped the system and scheme then maybe it’s time to show them the door. McDaniels is IMO a very smart character blending the older veterans with the younger set. The older ones still have some gas left and will teach and lead the others to be team oriented players. Thanks ski for the great post. rec’d.
by bfree2bronc on Jul 5, 2009 6:43 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes
The developmental metaphor is nice because it changes the context from a “he didn’t have the talent” situation to “you didn’t train him very well” context. I recall reading about the difference between bad franchises: where coaches & schemes frequently change and young players never get the proper development, and the good franchises: where players are carefully scrutinized for their fit to a certain role and then groomed over a period of time.
Coincidentally, the complaints about not taking the BPA at certain junctures in the draft has unwittingly adopted the bad franchise model as the ‘best’ way of doing business!
Implicit in the developmental metaphor is the idea that environment counts. And moreover, that coaching counts. I saw flashes early on with Moss and Crowder and then they disappeared. It’s not a question of drinking the Kool-aid, they simply went through a horrible period to learn NFL football. And that’s why I don’t like the “take the BPA in the draft and see if you’ve struck gold” theory of drafting. It ignores the coaches’ influence on the players’ development.
I used the Crowder example because there’s almost no explanation as to why he hasn’t developed. Nobody can say they “knew it all along.” He simply hasn’t had a chance, and who could thrive in the Bates and Slowik schemes anyways? Dumervil was an exception, fortunately or unfortunately.
"If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". W. I. Thomas
by Colinski on Jul 5, 2009 7:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dumervil is a question mark in my mind.
Will he be able to pass rush and back peddle in pass defense? He is doing something out of his ordinary and he may have trouble adjusting in that role. If he does, Mcdaniels/Nolan better recognize it quick so alignments can be, or teams might capitolize on it.
by bfree2bronc on Jul 5, 2009 8:53 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
From a scouting perspective
he has all the physical tools to be a monster zone coverage guy. But he has zero experience in ACTUAL zone coverage. If I was a betting man (and I am) I would bet on DOOM to adjust nicely. THe wildcard here is the type of mind(set) he approaches and plays the game with, and he has a long history of just where he rates in that area….
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 6, 2009 11:16 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Glad you brought up the "early flashes"
with regards to Crowder and Moss. Without those ‘flashes’, I’m afraid I would have to categorize both as washouts. I agree with those that question how they were used in the past or raise the possibility of poor teaching environment, but the fact remains that they weren’t able to get on the field, even within a talent-deficient defensive front seven based on pure ability alone – as opposed to someone like Doom. So, while the new coaching staff, aggressive mindset and scheme might play to their strengths, I think to expect too much from these two is somewhat unrealistic.
It's "just" football
by Donkhead on Jul 6, 2009 11:23 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
rec'd & thanks
for one more way to see what McDaniels is doing with our team.
great post, ski.
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It
by BShrout on Jul 5, 2009 7:25 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
An ideal blend
The best thing is to have an ideal blend of experience and youthful enthusiasm/passion. Too young is no good as is too old. Rebuilding means you’re going to have an overall younger team which isn’t all bad. Clearly some of our young players are going to have to step up this year and play beyond their years. Remember last year when rookies filled in for injured vets and we actually played the best defense of the year.
by Ponderosa on Jul 5, 2009 10:40 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
If we generalize the age category
as ‘inexperience’, does it change anything?
For example, DOOM will be dropping back in pass coverage (presumably only if he can: a crucial caveat), which is entirely new to him, so maybe he belongs in the ‘youth’ category above? (A ’tweener category? Realistic, but is it a worthwhile exercise?)
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 6, 2009 11:19 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Clemons is inexperienced at 29
It’s weird but true. And I consider him a developing talent. Usually, we’d be looking at a player of his age as having missed the boat, but I see him as untapped talent who might still develop with coaching.
"If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". W. I. Thomas
by Colinski on Jul 6, 2009 4:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: Dumervil's inexperience at OLB
I went through the same thought process. I considered Dumervil as belonging in the Young Talent group but I wanted to make a cutoff somewhere meaningful. I also wanted to show that we were fairly well covered with veteran talent, too.
I originally included Orton and Simms in the Young Talent group, too.
I was trying to illustrate several ideas graphically. There’s an upside to having youth. I was also trying show that youth could be a negative unless balanced by experience, both in terms of having seen playing time and in terms of veteran FAs. Some players were both young and experienced. There’s also an upside to having a nucleus of players who develop alongside each other. We have much of the team ‘blanketed’ with youth.
The real question from my viewpoint is whether the vets, i.e., Fields, Reid, Davis, etc., can play well enough to stabilize this defense. One fact that shouldn’t not be ignored is that these are leaders who don’t fit the cheap FA category of last year. These are the kind of conditions in which the defense could easily surpass our expectations of late.
Comparing this year’s and last year’s roster side by side is an illuminating experience. This is a much more talented team, and maybe we need to account for the dysfunctional nature of the last few years and not buy into the “we have no talent” MSM meme. I don’t think we’re untalented, in spite of recent results. Pundits have ‘inferred’ a dearth of talent, but the recent results were partly because of poor coaching & other circumstances. We’ve boughten into the ‘we have no talent’ narrative, although it may not be readily apparent to us that we have, and we need to readjust our thinking now to account for this overlooked level of talent.
"If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". W. I. Thomas
by Colinski on Jul 6, 2009 5:43 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It still hasn't really sunk in...
One fact that shouldn’t not be ignored is that these are leaders who don’t fit the cheap FA category of last year. These are the kind of conditions in which the defense could easily surpass our expectations of late.
I still can’t believe we acquired Brian Dawkins. I think Bronco nation is going to collectively come out of a strange form of FA shock when they see him suit up and play for the first time as a Bronco…. It simply isn’t the type of signing broncos fans should be used to….
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 6, 2009 8:46 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
he callls the defensive signals, too
I dislike talk of leadership because it’s so often used loosely, as part of rhetoric or political speech.
In this instance we’re talking about someone who’s known for leadership, and having him run our defense is an immeasurable boon compared to last year’s leaderless defense. That one fact alone makes our prospects better than we might ordinarily assume given all the other aspects.
"If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". W. I. Thomas
by Colinski on Jul 6, 2009 9:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Age Was A Number
Unfortunately, everyone does not mature intellectually, emotionally or physically at the same rate. Unlike Shanahan, Bates and Slowik, I want the best player on the field whatever his chronological age.
BTW, Hillis is in his 2nd year. And you left out my favorite second year prospect who did not play last year, Carlton Powell.
by Endzone on Jul 6, 2009 12:39 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
fixed Hillis mistake
"If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". W. I. Thomas
by Colinski on Jul 6, 2009 3:03 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's all good
Metaphorically speaking :-)
by Endzone on Jul 6, 2009 3:29 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great stuff.
We have quite a team of young guys (whether they atart or not) to develop over a long term. Now is the time to excercise patience and keep the coaching staff in place and have a year to year program (ie systems) that stay in place so that our youngsters “grow up” in it.
I think this first year will be rough. But I think we’ll see improvements from year to year (even this year).
The age (really “experience” factor) is one I’ve overlooked. Very nicely done Ski!
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jul 7, 2009 2:29 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Fine job, Ski!
Have never seen this slant before, regarding age. Really enlightening! Rec’d, BTW!
" Life is what happens while you're making other plans "
by hairybear on Jul 7, 2009 3:20 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

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