Horse Tracks 7/6/09 - Bly bitter about 2008
by Douglas A. Lee on Jul 6, 2009 5:26 AM MDT
in Horse Tracks
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PFW - Broncos rookie Ayers a quick study
Dan Parr and Co. are hearing good things about Robert Ayers. Thanks to Doc for the link.
FOX - 7 Points: NFC North has interesting QBs, for once
Ed Thompson still thinks the Broncos should trade BMarsh and disagrees that doing so would set a bad precedent. He even compares the situation to T.O. - ouch.
VP - NFL cornerback Bly relishes the same role with new team
Dre' Bly says he was made a scapegoat for last year's defensive woes in Denver, and that the Broncos defense was too predictable and lacked aggression. Sounds about right, Dre'. Of course, it also lacked talent.
SI - Matt Birk guest authors Monday Morning QB for Peter King
Harvard alum Matt Birk uses MMQB to pass along some excellent thoughts on retired players, the dramatization of players missing OTAs, and more.
NFL - Shooting death of former Titans, Ravens QB McNair ruled a homicide
NFL - Ravens fondly remember McNair as leader and friend
NFLN - NFL Videos: NFLTA: Sabol and Fisher on McNair
NFLN - NFL Videos: NFLTA: Top 10 McNair moments
PFW - Adversity allowed McNair to bring out his best
PFW - Notable events in McNair’s college, pro careers
SI - McNair's legacy was about being a true leader - John P. Lopez
NFP - Sunday at the Post
Lombardi senses little patience among the Denver fan base. Say it ain't so, folks!!
TSN - Rehab specialists: Three first-year coaches could engineer quick turnarounds
Dennis Dillon could see Jim Mora, Steve Spagnuolo and Eric Mangini making instant impacts with their new clubs.
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Bly
My sympathies go out to Dre. I thought he was a victim of Slowik last year. He had little or no safety help and had to play 10-15 yards off his assignments. Having said that, McD must have seen something he did not like since he released Bly.
It was interesting that Bly singled out predictable play calling, lack of aggression and that Denver had no pass rush.
The team has addressed those issues:
- Predictable play calling = new coaches
- Lack of aggression = new coaches and players
- Pass Rush = RELEASED unproductive players responsible for the pass rush: Engelberger, Robertson, Koutouvides, Peterson, Webster, Jackson, Manuel, McCree, Winborn, Green, Boss Bailey. SIGNED new players: J’Vonne Parker, Nick Greisen, Darrell Reid, Renaldo Hill, Ronald Fields, Andra Davis, PLUS RETAINED, DRAFT & CFA players. The combination of new players and coaches will have a dramatic effect on the team’s pass rush.
Time will tell, but I feel very optimistic with these changes.
Can't disagree with this.
What NYC said about the lack of talent is interesting, too, when I remember what DJ said about last year’s defense. He too forgot to mention a lack of talent. Well, everyone has pride, but Slowik should have made up for that. Good coaching and leadership will make a talent-poor squad play better and offset the lack of talent, to a degree (it will be interesting to see how Philly performs without Dawkins). And, conversely, sometimes bad coaching and a lack of leadership will be detrimental to overall performance, regardless of the amount of talent there.
"Who speaks for Charlie?"
by Tempestuous Binary on Jul 6, 2009 7:43 AM MDT up reply actions
totally agree
bly didnt look great- neither did champ. the guy took a lot of flak, maybe some deserved, but it seems the needs are being addressed.
"I want this team to be tough, smart and prepared to play well under pressure...Everybody here in this organization is going to be held accountable to do their job — their piece of the puzzle to make this team a competitor for a championship every season." J-Mac
by Jay Fin Anderson on Jul 6, 2009 9:13 AM MDT up reply actions
Thanks for the Horse Tracks, NYC.
"Who speaks for Charlie?"
by Tempestuous Binary on Jul 6, 2009 7:31 AM MDT reply actions
Dre Bly is an interesting look at what we already knew.
Slowiks’ scheme and system was missing the pass rush and putting pressure on the DB’s. It’s strange that Shanahan let that go, he is smarter than that. Thanks nyc.
Thanks NYC
I agree with you Endzone, Bly was a victim. I believe McD has upgraded though. I hope Dre does well in SF.
"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."
Matt Birk's Monday Morning QB piece is a great read.
"Who speaks for Charlie?"
by Tempestuous Binary on Jul 6, 2009 7:52 AM MDT reply actions
"Matt Birk's Monday Morning QB piece is a great read. "
Totally agree.
The sage is full of anxiety and indecision in undertaking anything, and so he is always successful.
Chuang - Tzu
Thoughts.
Great to hear Ayres is picking things up. Sounds like the kid has the drive to make himself a player. Can’t coach work ethic. And I can’t wait to see what we have when the pads are on.
If not for Scott O’Brien, Bob Slowik was the worst/least talented coordinator in the NFL in 2008. There was no better reason to fire Shanahan than his recent coordinator carousel that brought us this undistinguished list of hacks: Jim Bates, Jeremy Bates, Heimerdinger, Slowik, Scott O’Brien. The 2008 coaching staff a joke and not a funny one.
As for BM… If Denver should have dug in its heels with a player, Cutler was the better option than Marshall (if for no other reason than Jay’s team friendly contract with three years remaining). If a mediocre team like Tampa offers a 1st round pick in 2010 (likely the strongest draft in a decade), Denver should think long and hard about making this deal (1st and 3rd rounder from a NYG type team). Marshall is a Hall of Fame talent based on his game day production, but the guy is too risky to rely on when you consider his countless off field fiascos and pending $9MM+/year deal.
However, if no team will offer a 2010 #1 (seventy-five cents on the dollar for a 100+ catch player that is 25), then Denver should live with this headache. Guys with BMs talent come along once a generation. He is the most gifted Bronco since John Elway.
Good Thoughts
except for BMarsh. Several posts here have thoroughly debunked the notion that BMarsh is that great. It was WAY over the top to say he is the “most gifted Bronco since John Elway.”
BM is special. For good and bad
I stand by what I said, but I’ll clarify. BM is the most physically gifted player since Elway. As BM is mentally and socially retarded, I do agree that he is not the complete package of gifts.
Still, the guy has TWO 100+ catch seasons before his 25th birthday. That is historically rare in the NFL. There are not many WRs in the NFL that had accomplished as much as BM has this early in a career. If BM had half a brain, he’d be one of the best five players in the NFL. Unfortunately, he is an off field nightmare and it’s holding him back from reaching his almost limitless potential.
OK
I’m glad you like him and are sticking up for him. Did you read this Fanpost?
Brandon Marshall’s On-Field Problems
There are some older posts too, but this one was good and recommended reading.
I’ve read this article before. Not enough TDs, too many drops, too many fumbles, low ypc, tons of balls his way, etc. I’ll add that his fumbles last year (esp the one vs Buffalo inside the red zone) were killers.
BM is not there yet. But how many WRs tear up the league in their first few years? The answer is few if any any. Look at the list of great WRs and it is apparent the best WRs are always guys aged in the mid to late 20s. They’ve figured out the game, how to run routes, how to prepare for a season, how to avoid hits, how to manage their life outside football. Again, BMs production at his age is historically rare. That can’t be overlooked. The guy is absolutely a $10+/year player on game day – not so much during the off season.
Marshall is ahead of most every WR in the NFL history as far as catches and yards gained before his 25th birthday. He is just entering his prime and he does seem to have some control over his life (SOME, not a lot).
Just like with Cutler, if Denver loses BM, there is a chance that we just let go a 10 year dominating force in the NFL. That is not how you win in the NFL. Draft great players and keep the core guys long term. BM is supremely gifted and could be on the cusp of a Hall of Fame career. He is a first round Hall of Fame player if he keeps up his current production for another 6 years (which would only make him 30).
Too bad his off field antics make it impossible to give him a contract this off season and also make him a question mark for any future suspensions are bound to be LONG.
Others
While no-one is in Elways class, I do not deny that Marshall has skills. If we are focused on younger players, may I suggest, however, that Ryan Clady and Eddie Royal may have more to offer? I also like Hillis.
I LOVE Hillis, but he hasn’t done one 100th of what BM has done in this league. It’s easy to forget that Hillis was deactivated several times early in the year and was a backup to a converted LB in a number of games. He looked amazing for a few weeks until his injury and I can’t wait to see what he does in the future. I could see some All Pro FB nominations in the years to come. Still, the guy can’t be favorably compared to BM at this point in his fledging career. He has four good games under his belt, BM has a Pro Bowl start and two incredible seasons as a young WR.
Love Royal as well by his YPC are much lower than BMs and he didn’t score many TDs either. He had some careless drops and fumbled the ball a time or two. Eddie also disappeared in a few games. Happens to rookie WRs all the time. His rookie year was nonetheless amazing, but his ceiling is not nearly as high as BMs (nor his floor as low). Again, I love Royal and think he was Shanahan’s best draft pick considering the options at WR available when he took Eddie. I just don’t see many Pro Bowls in his future. Rather just one solid, productive and long NFL career.
Clady is the real deal. He is the best young Tackle in the NFL. I bet 32 of 32 NFL teams would take him over Joe Thomas, Jake Long or any other young tackles. Still, Clady has a long way to go in the run blocking department. If you had asked me to rank the Broncos in order of talent after the 2008 season – mine would look like
1. Clady
2. Cutler
3. Marshall
4. Royal
5. Harris
6. Champ
BM is a special talent, well beyond a Hillis or Royal. There are precious few NFL players with his talent. Too bad his head isn’t screwed on correctly. Hopefully he’ll put it together in 2009 for Denver and he may when he realizes his coin is on the line. We better hope so. A contributing BM will be the difference between us winning and losing several games in 2009. He pretty much won the Charger game alone in 2008. If we want to consistently beat teams like San Diego, we’ll need players of BMs caliber playing at maximum effectiveness.
Ryan Clady is also an O-lineman. While I recognize his immeasurable importance, I watch football for the bombs, big hits, ints and game breaking runs. Focusing on O-linemen is boring, especially good ones like Clady that just push pass rushes out wide or stand them up at the line. I’m grateful he does it, but I’m a fan, not a coach. For me, watching the O-line and DTs is usually monotonous.
Re: letting go dominating forces. The opposite is also true: a common way that teams LOSE long-term in the NFL is by paying big coin for players who could be, might be, long-term dominant forces. But they’re not. Those teams tie up their cap in guys who don’t produce, or who produce in superficial ways. And those contracts cost a team depth and the ability to sign free agents when the time is ripe for a run at a ring. The argument for locking up young, talented guys could be used to justify the big bucks thrown at Javon Walker, or Peerless Price, or Yancey Thigpen before him, or any other number of wide receivers with good stats and lots of potential.
I’m not sure what to say about the idea that hanging onto great players is important. Yes, sure, of course it is. Nobody would say otherwise. The more relevant question is: Is Marshall great, and if not, what are the odds that he will be? Without really looking hard at those questions, you’re just speculating on a guy’s upside, and doing so at high cost. That seems like the kind of approach the Broncos have (justifiably) been working to shed.
I think we have to take the stats about Marshall’s production with a grain of salt, too. Passing game records are obliterated with regularity these days. It’s true, Marshall has caught a lot of balls, and it’s true, he’s racked up a lot of yards. But he’s also played for a pass-wacky team in a pass-wacky league. The best WRs in the 70s, 80s and 90s never had the chance to put up stats like that because there simply weren’t enough passes called; beating them out in the stats is not necessarily such an accomplishment.
Those who did put up remarkable numbers (like Jerry Rice ‘94) caught passes with greater frequency, for longer yardage, or for more yards after the catch. The ONLY number I could find that made Marshall stand out from his young peers, is the number of times he was thrown to. You want a player to stand out because of what he’s done when the ball comes his way, not because of the fact that it was directed his way with such frequency. Marshall could be that guy. But it will cost a lot of money to find out, and you need more than one hand to count off the risks attached to him.
Screwy Website
I don’t “get” this website at all. I see a link on yahoo under the articles that says Bly bitter about 2008. Once I click on it, it takes this site about 47 years to fully load, and then there is no article anywhere with that title, just a list of articles on real websites, regarding Ayers, interesting QBs, and then one about Bly but titled differently.
Doesn’t this site have original content? Or is it merely a commentary of other writers’ and websites’ work?
Original content
is linked down the right margin. If you go back to the home page there are a number of categories of original content such as MH University, which goes into a lot of X and O stuff. Tales from the Sunnyside carries a ton of player profiles. Also there are usually original content on the front page but its the off season.
I'm always wary of any screen name...
..at a Bronco site that has ‘donkey’ in it— that’s like picking ‘CommieObama’ as a handle at a liberal site— so I don’t know your intentions, but there is a lot of original content on this site. It just happens to be July. As for load times, that’s clearly a hardware issue because navigating this site is like navigating my cable box for me.
Its a good place to talk Broncos if that’s what you’re looking for. If you’re looking to antagonize, then knock yourself out. You’ll probably be disappointed, though.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance-- that principle is contempt prior to investigation."
-- Herbert Spencer
by PredominantlyOrange on Jul 6, 2009 9:00 AM MDT up reply actions
Heh, good call
I’m calling troll. Sorry if I’m wrong but the handle is a dead giveaway. And anyone who knows remotely how to surf the web can clearly see that there are tons of articles teased on the MHR home page that are original commentary/analysis pieces. Not that I don’t love nyc’s daily wrap ups here, too.
Anyway… I’d ignore the above, folks.
Okay
after reading your posts below, I take it back (sort of). I still don’t get the screen name being a sign of a Bronco fan. But hey, welcome, anyway. If you were sincerely just confused about the site content, then I apologize for misjudging you. Welcome.
Dear Fried
Welcome. This is a fan website. I am a relative newbie myself.
There are many original articles here. See the MHR University, Scouting Services, and others (to the left). I can’t explain why you had a problem with the Bly link. And I’m a little confused when you say a “link on yahoo.” I usually right click and open most articles, links and posts in a new tab. The other option is to right click on the highlighted text and find the URL info.
PSS
Some of the best original content and discussion is contained in the right column “FanPosts” and “FanShots”
You should also read the Rules of Conduct PLEASE READ – This Will Be The Only Time I Say This – MHR Code of Conduct
(PS to John Bena & MHR webmasters – Why don’t you put the Rules in the Sections list?)
Thanks NYC!!!
Take my advice... I'm not using it!
Just click your heels together three times and say, "There's no player like Hillis... there's no player like Hillis."
Content
Thanks guys for clearing that up. It’s just that, contextually, on the nfl page on yahoo, it makes it seem as if your titles, i. e. Bly bitter about 2008, are article titles because Mile High Report is posted directly under the two article tabs.
As for fried donkey, you’d be surprised, it really does taste like chicken.
And to make a real comment: Don’t you all wish we could get into Shanahan’s head and see what he thinks about all the moves the new regime has made. He would have never drafted a RB in the first round—he was always trying to find the next TD—but Moreno should really be able to help in the red zone, which has been the offenses biggest trouble over the past few seasons: no solid running game inside the twenty.
Content
I always liked Shanahan, but he’s gone so I really don’t care what he thinks.
There have been a lot of discussion posts lately regarding what happened inside the twenty. There’s one going on right now started by BShrout titled Red Zone Play-By-Play. After reading the various posts I’ve concluded that the problem was Bates’ playcalling (too many and far too predictable passes). The running game was a lot better in the red zone statistically than I felt it was emotionally.
BTW, I agree with PredominantlyOrange about your screenname. Maybe not the best choice for a Broncos fan.
About the screen name . . .
Keep it! It’s the content of your posts that matter, not the screen name. My screen name may seem like blasphemy to some, but I’ll put my 45 years (some of them pretty bleak) of following Bronco football (pretty religiously) up against anyone. There have been numerous nicknames associated with this franchise for decades and they haven’t mattered a bit. It’s entertainment folks – don’t take it so personally!
It's "just" football
I don't know....
…Shannahan said his plan was to draft Maroney in 2006 if Cutler had gone in the Top 10. He also said last year’s pick came down between Clady and Jonathan Stewart. I’m not so sure that he doesn’t draft Moreno at 12…although the availability of Orakpo at 12 probably would have been too tempting to pass up. Remember, Shannahan was all about building the big lead and holding on…so Moreno would have made sense in line with that philosophy.
Anyway, welcome.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance-- that principle is contempt prior to investigation."
-- Herbert Spencer
by PredominantlyOrange on Jul 6, 2009 10:32 AM MDT up reply actions
I agree
I think if you’re playing a 4-3 defense (as would be likely under Shannahan), Orakpo has too much potential to pass up for most any RB… yes, he has some injury and “motor” questions, but was generally regarded as one of the best 4-3 DE’s in the draft. I was quite upset initially when we passed on him.
That said, Orakpo was a bit of a “square peg” for a 3-4 defense, and I have greatly come around on the decision now that I think I see more clearly the strategic direction the defense is taking. Its unclear if he’d really be that much better than Doom, Moss, et. al. of the 4-3 DE’s we have making the switch to OLB.
If we’re really lucky, Moreno is the next “Brian Westbrook” and the Def gels around the “amoeba” scheme. If so, watch out because we’ll really surprise folks.
I think more likely Moreno is a “Joseph Addai”, which while not worth the #12 pick (In My Opiion considering we already had Hillis), should still help the team. That combined with better coaching and strategic clarity (highly lacking in recent years by Shanny) should put the team in a good place going forward, even if Cutler—>Orton is a step back in the short term.
PS- Just because I don’t think that a “Joseph Addai”-quality RB is generally worth the #12 pick doesn’t mean I necessarily think there were any/many better options this year. Unfortunately, there seemed to be only a few folks really worth a top-15 pick for a 3-4 DEF team this year, and they were gone by #12… Moreno very well might have been the best option, even if I only rate him lower given the relatively short careers and general fungibility (at least in terms of performance/salary cap) of RBs between the mid-1st & 2nd/3rd rounds.
Denver’s 12 pick was bound to disappoint the moment Tyson Jackson, Raji and Curry were off the board. I’d have taken Jenkins at 12 (AND NOT TRADED our 2010 1st for Smith), but picking Jenkins at 12 would have been no better value than picking Moreno at the same spot.
Unlike in 2008, having the 12th pick in 2009 was not a good spot for Denver to address both value and need. We went for need and I think The Coach did the best he could after being dealt a bummer hand.
Hopefully Moreno becomes more on an Emmitt Smith (was considered a Jack of all trades, but King of none) rather than a Addai – part time RB.
value at RB
I argued the “take a RB later” line but came to the conclusion that Moreno could easily be our wisest choice at that point in the draft.
There’s a bit of math involved in making my point but I’m a mathematical intuitive so I rarely run the numbers. Firstly, the drop in value at RB is somewhat overblown. A good way of looking at how the values have been affected is to imagine that the value range has been extended and the specific value of backs is depressed somewhat. A back of Moreno’s caliber is still worth a high pick but probably not a top ten pick. Some of the lesser backs should go later than in the past, but it’s not as if you can predict who is going to become a Forte’ and who’s not.
“I’m not trying to outrun the bear, I’m trying to outrun you!”
Part of the value story of RBs is a league-wide phenomenon, but that doesn’t apply to every team. Many teams have satiated their demand for RBs (last year’s crop satisfied a lot of demand), so there weren’t many teams that could justify the pick. However, it doesn’t matter if 30 teams don’t need a RB if the only other team left does. What’s true in general can be false in the specific. Our competition wasn’t all the other teams but a few, and they did value Moreno highly.
A back of Moreno’s caliber can still impact a game, and he can also produce far sooner than a player at any other position. He’s also a very, very good fit for our scheme, which also allows us to disregard some of what’s been said about the value of RBs.
The cognitive dividing line on Moreno may be in where you think we are talent-wise. People who think that we’re years away from being competitive may consider him an unwise pick. People who think we have a chance at being a pretty good team next year may view him as a very justifiable pick. Different assessments yield different utilities. And some pundits think we’re so terrible that we should sit back and enjoy the fruits of our dis-merit by stockpiling picks for a while.
"If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". W. I. Thomas
by Colinski on Jul 6, 2009 7:15 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
yep
I think I agree with this completely, and is basically what i was trying to say…. that while I don’t generally like RBs in the early 1st round, given the choices available I don’t have a problem with Moreno at all.
added thoughts
We agree. My problem with the many extant opinions regarding draft philosophy is that there are mathematically incoherent decisional criteria involved which makes it hard to support generalizations such as — don’t take a RB early. For instance, RBs are supposedly devalued (and they are) but a team with a need can draft a RB and expect a greater immediate impact than a player at any other position. Why would they pass on him?
There are shades of “making the perfect the enemy of the good” in many of the criticisms. I looked at the draft landscape very intently and concluded that there just weren’t many defensive players that were going to fit. Should we have made a major reach and taken a player such as Moala or Gilbert? I hope not, but even my suggestions for players such as ‘Ziggy’ Hood weren’t any better. BPA is meaningless unless the player fits your team. The belief in BPA has become so dogmatic that obviously poor fits are ignored by fans obsessed with a few points difference for a player listed on free site somewhere by a self-proclaimed expert. I take opinions seriously in an inverse relation to how loudly the advocate proclaims to know how good or bad a player/choice is.
Our needs were fairly well identified but that doesn’t mean a solution was at hand. This is an amazingly obvious point but it’s routinely missed by even supposed draft experts. Somehow and some way we were supposed to draft a DL early, and the fact that he didn’t fit our scheme or wasn’t really that good doesn’t appease these critics.
Honestly — I think we did a great job in the first round. We were really, really lucky to be able to pick Ayers. And Moreno will contribute more in his first year than any other player we could have drafted. I even love the Smith pick, although I’d have loved it more if we could have gotten him cheaper.
"If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences". W. I. Thomas
Actually, I don't
really too much care what Shanahan thinks of the new regime. I just finished the Fatsis book, and after doing so, I’m glad we’re moving past Shanahan who really seemed very stuck in his ways. I highly recommend that book to everyone on this board.
by AllBroncsallday on Jul 6, 2009 3:09 PM MDT up reply actions
D wins championships
Shanny’s greatest failure was his inability to put together a solid defensive unit that could put pressure on the passer with some consistency without blitzing. He didn’t have to recreate the Bears of the mid to late ‘80s or become the Ravens but he did need to more than just have shut down corners. I don’t care how good you are if you are you can’t cover a receiver forever. How many times did the Broncos give up 3rd and long over the last several years? It seemed like better than 50%. Why? No pressure from the D line or line backers on a consistent basis. Am I wrong? Is it more complicated than that?
by Manwhoknewtoolittle on Jul 12, 2009 8:34 AM MDT reply actions
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