Interceptions and the havoc they create!

by adamriggs on Jul 7, 2009 12:38 AM MDT Comment 35 comments

This is a little spin-off of BShrout's piece about red zone effectiveness. As I was reading his post and subsequent comments, I started thinking about how the drives after interceptions ended up. The following is what I discovered:

via www.riggsdesignsolutions.com

(click here for large view)

Quick Hits:

The average starting field position from Cutler's interceptions is the 50 yard line.
When the opponent started on their own 20 yard line, it was due to the interception being thrown in the end zone (except the New England Game).
Cutler threw six red zone interceptions.
Points were scored on 13 of the 18 interceptions (9 touchdowns and 4 field goals). Some of these can be attributed to great starting field position, and some can not.
Of the interceptions that were not in the opponent's red zone 7 of nine were converted into points (4 touchdowns and 3 field goals).
Two interceptions were pick-six's. Those 14 points can not, in any way, be attributed to the defense.
The defense forced 3 punts on 3 drives lasting a combined 12 plays after a Cutler interception.
The average number of plays per drive after a Cutler interception was 4.39 (including the pick-six's as possessions) or 4.94 (not including the pick-six's as possessions).

I won't belabor the points of the table, because I like to let everyone think about the reason why the numbers are what they are. However, I should explain how I laid out the table, because it can be confusing. The third column is the point of view of the Broncos opponent. When it says "Opponent 27 yard line" it means that the drive started on the Broncos 27 yard line.

All in all, the defense was consistently put back on their heels after a Cutler interception. Either they were deep in their own territory or they were thrown into the fray when they thought the offense was going to come away with points.

Of the 448 points the Broncos' opponents scored, 434 can be attributed to the defense. Secondly, only 373 were scored in the normal flow of the game (I know interceptions are part of the normal flow, but I couldn't figure out a way to word that phrase. Also, I didn't look at the fumbles and how the subsequent drives fared).

Take what you will from this little research and let me know your conclusions.

Poll

How do you think the defense REALLY fared last year now that you know the field position they were routinely given by Jay Cutler?

They were still historically bad

67 votes

They still sucked, but not as much

68 votes

They weren't bad, but they weren't good

25 votes

They were good. I can't believe Cutler put them in so many binds

1 votes

161 votes | Poll has closed

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

8 recs | Comment 35 comments

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Comments

Thanks for putting this together

I would like to see a similar analysis of Orton. Right now all I can take from this is that one NFL QB was indirectly responsible for nearly 5 points to the opposing team per game last year. Don’t get me wrong, that is a big deal, I just want to know how bad in comparison to the rest of the league.

"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway

by jibbons on Jul 7, 2009 2:38 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

oh yeah

rec’d

"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway

by jibbons on Jul 7, 2009 2:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, as I was putting this together

I was thinking the same thing. I will have to do that, in a little bit. Thanks for the great feedback!

by adamriggs on Jul 7, 2009 9:39 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jibbons has a good point

would you please add a part 2 adam?

"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."

by KaptainKirk on Jul 7, 2009 8:52 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I sure will.

It will be a couple days, but I will get it done.

by adamriggs on Jul 7, 2009 9:45 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which QBs ar eyou gpoing to do?

There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.

by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 7, 2009 8:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't decided

I figured the obvious one is Orton. Then I was thinking maybe P. Manning, P. Rivers.

I am definitely open to suggestions though.

by adamriggs on Jul 7, 2009 11:56 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Throw in D. McNabb,

he had similar stats to Cutler with the exception of the picks.

I think Favre would be interesting as well, he has the most similar style to Cutler, and he is the only player who threw more picks.

And could you make me a ham sandwich when you get done?

"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway

by jibbons on Jul 8, 2009 1:48 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

SUDO make me a sandwich

That should work better…

There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.

by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 8, 2009 9:30 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's make it ham and turkey and you have a deal!!!

by adamriggs on Jul 8, 2009 10:39 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

rec'd

This is helpful information.

I’m currently working on a post that looks at the play-calling and the results of that. And I believe that you’re absolutely right about the havoc turnovers can wreak. I voted for our defense not being good/not being bad, because IMHO many of the problems our defense faced originated in failed drives and turnovers by the offense (as in having to defend a short field too many times, having to come back on the field with too little rest after too many 3-downs-and-out).

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Jul 7, 2009 8:55 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice...Rec'd

Add another vote on a part 2 to compare Orten’s picks and the subsequent result.

by bchiper on Jul 7, 2009 8:59 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Orton Interceptions

Anyone wanting to compare Ortons interceptions he threw them in Tampa Bay, Philly, Minnesota, Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Green Bay games. Comment later. Thanks for the research

by 3nS on Jul 7, 2009 9:04 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Thank you for this research. Ive been wanting to look this up for myself and you did it for me. appreciate it. Things I noticed. 1 pass play against Jacksonville, Cutler was 3rd and 7 on his own 43 and was intercepted at Jacksonvilles 7. Worked out as good or better than a punt. So that interception can be forgiven. The next interception against New England Cutler was 3rd and 3 on his own 40 and was intercepted at New Englands 17. For the same reasons that one can be forgiven.
The 3rd interception against Miami was a 3rd and 24 at the 15 and was intecepted at the 43. Denver was down by 6 at the beginning of the 4th. So this could be forgiven but if he didn’t throw the first 2, he wouldn’t be in that possition. BTW Props to Denver’s D for keeping them in that game.

Cutler was 3-0 in games he didn’t throw an interception while Orton was 4-4. The crazy thing was that in games in which interceptions were thrown Cutler was 5-8 and Orton was 4-1.

Cutlers int’s were more costly than Ortons.

by 3nS on Jul 7, 2009 1:43 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is one way to look at it.

And it may have to do with play calling, but why on 3rd and 3 are you throwing the football 40+ yards? You only need THREE yards to keep the drive alive.

You make good points, but I am not sure that an interception is just as good as a punt. I would rather try an 8-yard pass and have a higher chance of completing that pass and then punt than throw an interception on third down.

by adamriggs on Jul 7, 2009 3:35 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

BTW

thanks for the feedback. I didn’t mean my last post to sound attacking, and I fear it may have come across that way.

by adamriggs on Jul 7, 2009 3:36 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its OK

Thats why they call it a discussion. Just because someone has strong views doesn’t mean he is attacking. You Have a good point but would you rather a QB throw a long int that (and I’m assuming this) can’t be returned or have the QB throw it out of bounds and line up for a punt. (This is also assuming no one is open for the 1st down) I know I’m assuming a lot. I’m just saying there may be times when taking a chance throwing down field where you may have a completion or an interception may be better than punting.
But like you said 3rd and 3 its hard to believe that there was nothing short if he had the time to throw long.

by 3nS on Jul 7, 2009 3:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I think it is definitely a case by case approach. The first example you cited is definitely a good example of this. Would we really have pinned the opposing team inside their own 10? I doubt it. But, if it turns out he had someone open ten yards downfield on that play, then yeah, it was a bad interception.

by adamriggs on Jul 7, 2009 4:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

we are on the same side of the same argument.

by 3nS on Jul 7, 2009 5:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t need stats to prove or disprove that last year’s defense was historically bad…I watched the games. They

"C" is for Championship...that's good enough for meeeee!!!

by PosterNutbag on Jul 7, 2009 9:38 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

ooops...posted too soon.

They were terrible.

"C" is for Championship...that's good enough for meeeee!!!

by PosterNutbag on Jul 7, 2009 9:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

The terrible D was probably what made the interceptions so painful,

you would watch a Cutler bullet fly into triple coverage, and you knew deep down that the other offense was just going to march down the field.

I don’t mean to deflect criticism from Cutler either, he knew how bad our Defense was. I would think that there would be added incentive to not make risky throws if your D can’t defend a short field. Cutler however, paid no mind and threw several dumb passes a game (or maybe last year was an example of him holding back the riskiest throws he had considered, thats a scary thought for Chicago fans).

I can’t help but wonder what last year would have been like if we could have fielded a middle of the pack defense. Maybe we wouldn’t have given back so many points on these picks. But this is a silly pursuit as we DID have a terrible D last year. You have to play with the cards you are dealt, and unfortunately Cutler seemed to think he was playing with the Patriots cards (meaning a high powered offense coupled with a non-laughing stock D).

Really I think this sums up the whole Shannahan Cutler fiasco. Cutler refused to play with the cards that had been dealt to him (with exception of the Tampa game if memory serves), and Shannahan refused to deal a new hand (in the form of yet another D coordinator).

"It's the first time that I've probably ever seen a 260 pound back run into a free safety and go flat on his back, I mean it was exciting." ~John Elway

by jibbons on Jul 7, 2009 11:33 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great point, jibbons

I don’t mean to deflect criticism from Cutler either, he knew how bad our Defense was. I would think that there would be added incentive to not make risky throws if your D can’t defend a short field.

That’s been misunderstood and mis stated since this situation unfolded. Cutler had a responsibility to the team to protect the ball (fumbling twice in one season without anyone else touching the ball was equally strange, but less of an issue over the season). While the idea that he was emotionally distraught because the defense wouldn’t protect his leads has been put forth, the idea that it’s a good idea not to place them in those situations and give up more points hasn’t really been explored before. Great post, great comments – thanks, guys

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jul 7, 2009 12:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can't find it.

…the idea that it’s a good idea not to place them in those situations and give up more points hasn’t really been explored before.

When a lot of folks were bashing the defense (including me), Guru wrote a story about how the offense had put the defense in such bad positions. I don’t recall the title (hence no link). I still blame a terrible defense, but the offense was very overrated, and hurt our defense quite a bit too.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Jul 7, 2009 2:13 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed HT.

There’s always a double edged sword with this kind of topic. Did the offense throw away stupid interceptions? yes they did. Although some of them set up our defense with good position, it still killed a drive that could have been 7 more for us. It’s understandable to see it like some of you do. The defense was terrible, but an interception never has anything to do with OUR defense. It’s 100% an offensive mistake, regardless of the field position our defense may have had.

Peyton Hillis is also referred to in early Greek mythology by his other names such as Zeus or Poseidon.

by Joe Medina on Jul 7, 2009 4:39 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

It can be a two-sided mistake

It promises that you can’t gain 3-7 points, and apparently ensures that the opponent will

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jul 7, 2009 7:00 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good memory!

Now that you mention it, I do recall. in fact, it has been explored – more accurately, since the Cutler debate and debacle, I’m not aware of a full post on the subject. But JohnB had it first

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jul 7, 2009 6:59 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

here it is guys

Denver defense.

Inspired by the KC loss, I figured either that game or the oakland game.

Gah.

The oakland game. We got blown out by oakland…

(find a happy place, find a happy place)

There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.

by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 7, 2009 8:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

link

Denver defense

There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.

by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 7, 2009 8:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was a great post and analytical look at the offense I have never read.

Especially from the DP. Thanks for the find styg…

by bfree2bronc on Jul 7, 2009 9:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, styg

For anyone who is new, our archives are a wonderful resource for material for posts or for personal study. JohnnyB, HT and styg have nearly anything that you’d like to learn about.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Jul 8, 2009 1:25 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Part of what makes this so dramatic . . .

is that our D was not getting interceptions at the same time. There was no, or incredibly little counter-balance with respect to game flow, opportunities, psychological damage, etc.

It's "just" football

by Donkhead on Jul 7, 2009 10:30 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

strangely enough though

in 4 of our 8 losses, we actually won the turnover battle. I’d have to go back and see if I still have which games those were written down somewhere.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.

Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Jul 7, 2009 4:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very nicely done adamriggs.

Teams are going to have their share of downovers, afterall it is part of the game. It is how the team as a whole overcomes those misstakes and gets back in the game. Was it 9 of the interceptions that resulted in a TD? There were QB’s who had more, but the defense seemed to pick them up, our defense under the scheme and system they had failed at least 9 times.

by bfree2bronc on Jul 7, 2009 6:43 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, the defense sure didn't help Cutler

A couple of the touchdowns were from interceptions deep in the opponent’s territory. One of them (the first San Diego game) the Chargers went 96 yards in three plays. That is just hideous.

But, there was the first KC game where Cutler threw an INT and the next play the defense forced a fumble, then the next play Cutler threw another INT and the defense forced a punt in three plays.

The best and the worst. Too bad the middle couldn’t have been on the good side. sigh

by adamriggs on Jul 8, 2009 12:00 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs