Horse Tracks 7/7/09 - Let's talk Training Camp!!!!
by Douglas A. Lee on Jul 7, 2009 5:54 AM MDT
in Horse Tracks
35 comments
DB - Who’s Number One?
Mike Rice shares some thoughts on the Broncos' QBs - like everyone, he's interested to see how Orton will fare with a better supporting cast than he had in Chicago.
CSG - Broncos camp preview: a look at the offensive line
Frank Schwab examines Denver's O-Line, reminding us how far under the radar Ryan Clady flew last year.
SN - Broncos camp countdown: After tumultuous offseason, McDaniels will be scrutinized
A balanced and realistic outlook on the '09 Broncos from Teicher, Iyer and Rasizer. They see lots of talent on offense but question marks on the defense, while an unnamed opponent has higher expectations for Denver than most. Said opponent is curious to see Kyle Orton surrounded by actual talent, and calls Alphonso Smith the "best cover corner in the draft."
SN - The new guys: Broncos safety Brian Dawkins
BDawk tells Dennis Dillon how tough it is adjusting to Denver's altitude and what he loves about his new home city.
NFLN - NFL Videos: Monday's Around the League
Jason La Canfora is hearing from Denver that Josh McDaniels is taking charge and has freshened up the attitude by bringing in a nutritionist and giving the players more of a summer break.
DB - NFL Network: Royal Visits Rookie Symposium - Broncos TV
Video from the symposium; it's pretty long, so I couldn't get through it this morning. Eddie is one of the four second-year panelists.
DW - Behind the launch of the Rocky Mountain Independent
The writers formerly of the Rocky now have yet another new project, as INDenver Times didn't quite work out as planned.
SN - 10-Pack: Integration of the African-American QB
Florio examines some defining moments in the emergence of African-American QBs, starting with the Broncos' own Marlin Briscoe.
EH - Eason still basking in Super Bowl victory glow
Stillers DE Nick Eason looks back at his career, including a rough start in Denver.
SFC - Silver and Black legends have eye on young players
The guys who actually made Jokeland good have plenty of advice for the Raiders' current bunch of clowns.
KCS - Hall of Fame names new exhibit after Lamar Hunt
NFP - A look at rookie contracts
Part 1 of a series by Andrew Brandt educating us on rookie deals; first up, the signing bonus.
NYT - Giants’ Lesson From 2008: Can’t Have Enough Pass Rushers - Toni Monkovic
When's the last time the Broncos lived by this philosophy?
NFP - NFL quick hits: the holdup with Winfield - Matt Bowen
FOX - 10 teams with missing parts and how to fill them
Alex Marvez considers whether BMarsh would be a good fit for the Ravens.
CBS - Positional Rankings: Running Backs
Pete Prisco ranks his top 10 running backs.
NYT - If Only the Cowboys Had Better Blocking … - KC Joyner
NFLN - NFL Videos: 32 in 32: Carolina Panthers
NFP - 2009 NFP scouting series: West Virginia - Wes Bunting
------------------RIP Steve McNair-------------------
NFL - Police confirm woman found dead with McNair bought gun used in homicide
NFL - Details about McNair's relationship with Kazemi emerge after shooting
NFL - Fisher: Celebrate McNair's work on the field, in the community
NFLN - NFL Videos: George remembers McNair
Eddie George talks with Steve Wyche about playing with Steve McNair.
NFP - Diner morning news: 'a man among boys' - Mike Lombardi
SI - Steve McNair's murder proves athlete's image not always reality - Don Banks
ESPN - Former Tennessee Titans QB Steve McNair might be the last QB selected in the first round from a historically black school - Len Pasquarelli
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Thanks NYC,
I’m looking forward to this season more than I have for many years. With all of the unknowns, changes on our team. Will we suprise everyone? Man I can’t wait for this month to get over with.
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for to many men on the field?" - Jim Bouton
by diviesti on Jul 7, 2009 7:14 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
The 2009 was considered VERY weak at the CB position. In fact, the first CB selected (Jenkins) is already being looked at for a move to safety. The only other CB taken in round 1 is considered a major character risk/bust candidate. The next Champ Bailey was not there for the taking in 2009. Being the best CB in the 2009 draft is the equivalent to being the 4th or 5th best CB in several other recent drafts.
It all goes back to trading away an unknown future 1st round pick (in what should be a fantastic 2010 draft) for 2nd round picks in the weak 2009 draft. This was NOT an intelligent long term decision by The Coach and Xanders. I can only hope The Coach does not make a habit of pulling off hasty trades in 2010.
by McGeorge on Jul 7, 2009 7:40 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
How many times are you going to write the same thing?
Only to have others respond with the same rebuttals? The Broncos did the grading. THEY determined Smith’s grade and value. THEY determined that at 37 he was a steal — given that they had him in the 20s — meaning they’d be getting a third number one AS THEY GRADED this year, and getting that third number one, who can begin playing now, at second round pay.
How others viewed the overall draft has nothing to do with how the Broncos graded and selected. If you don’t like the pick, fine. But from the Broncos’ perspective — given the grade, the immediacy of impact, and the economics — it made perfect sense.
They will receive 4 players they graded at number one in a two year span (provided they don’t trade down next year). As it stands, three of those players are about to enter training camp. Whereas the alternative was to have 2 of those number ones about to enter training camp, and the other two still in college, performing for someone else.
Again, if the 2010 draft is supposed to be so fantastic, that means the talent pool is deeper — which in turn suggests there are more quality players to go around. Therefore, where you pick is less important as in a year where the draft contains fewer high grade players.
Moving up this year to get a player the BRONCOS had graded as a number one — in exchange for a player whom they’d have had graded a number one next season — means only that they exchanged an immediate first-round-graded player for a future first-round-graded player, one whom they’ve have had to pay more in guaranteed money.
Seems to me they made the smart value move — based on how THEY GRADED.
If you have a problem with how they had Smith graded, just say so. From the Broncos’ perspective, however, the pick makes perfect sense.
And of course, Jenkins was ALWAYS being looked at as a potential safety. It was Smith who most scouts said was the best corner in the draft; the question was always whether his size would translate into the pro game.
Evidently, the Broncos aren’t as concerned about his size as others seem to be.
by JeffG on Jul 7, 2009 10:09 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Again, if the 2010 draft is supposed to be so fantastic, that means the talent pool is deeper — which in turn suggests there are more quality players to go around. Therefore, where you pick is less important as in a year where the draft contains fewer high grade players.
This is an excellent point, which everyone should consider.
by Douglas A. Lee on Jul 7, 2009 10:30 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
nonsense!
No it doesn’t make sense.
I’m concerned about OUR GRADES.
I hope I’m wrong! Just as I hope a majority of the football minds out there who agree with me… are wrong.
Quit trying to make the folks that think we made some bad moves this off season sound foolish with that foolish logic!
by Whidbey Bronco on Jul 7, 2009 9:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever Dude
You have your opinion that I am sure will cause the Broncos to go back and re-do the draft. I am another person who does not share your opinion.
Just curious though. How many of you think if the Broncos had had only one pick next year and one this year that we would have traded next year’s first rounder if we could have gotten Ayers or Smith?
by Endzone on Jul 7, 2009 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: your hypothetical
The prospect of having to pay 4 number ones is part of the calculus, so it’s impossible to say, really.
But as TSG pointed out on one of his radio shows, if the Broncos tank — and Cutler breaks his leg in week one, and the Bears tank, as well — the Broncos would have been looking at possibly two top 10 picks in a draft where people will be looking to trade out of the top 10, precisely because the talent pool is so deep: why not grab a solid player at 15-25 instead of paying top 10 guaranteed money to the hyped players who make the Kiper top 10?
McDaniels is looking for value picks that allow him to get players who he thinks will excel here — and yet who don’t cost so much that keeping them means sacrificing depth. From that standpoint, the Smith pick makes good organizational sense.
by JeffG on Jul 7, 2009 4:19 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Economics
Yes. I think the price of a round one draft pick is exorbitant. So if you can trade next year’s pick, knowing it is your ONLY first round pick next year, for a 2nd rounder that is of first round QUALITY and costs less then I think you have to consider it. “A bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush”
No-one can predict where any team will pick in next year’s draft. Nor can anyone accurately predict whether a first-rounder will perform any better than a second-rounder. You can make educated guesses, but it is still gambling.
BTW, Dre Bly’s release may have been more cap related than skill related.
by Endzone on Jul 7, 2009 4:28 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The 2009 draft was considered VERY weak at the CB position. In fact, the first CB selected (Jenkins) is already being looked at for a move to safety. The only other CB taken in round 1 is considered a major character risk/bust candidate. The next Champ Bailey was not there for the taking in 2009. Being the best CB in the 2009 draft is the equivalent to being the 4th or 5th best CB in several other recent drafts.
It all goes back to trading away an unknown future 1st round pick (in what should be a fantastic 2010 draft) for a 2nd round pick in the weak 2009 draft. This was NOT an intelligent long term decision by The Coach and Xanders. I can only hope The Coach does not make a habit of pulling off hasty trades in 2010.
by McGeorge on Jul 7, 2009 7:41 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe Smith ought to be allowed to play a couple downs.
The idea that trading a future first rounder for a second rounder is unprecedented or illogical simply doesn’t stand the test of league history. Just like every thing else in the NFL, it has worked masterfully in some case, fallen completely flat in others. Most importantly, Its a hardly a concept invinted by Josh MacDaniels.
Obviously you aren’t real high on Smith or MacDaniels. Obviously you could be right. But isn’t it possible that Smith should be allowed to prove himself and that MacDaniels deserves at least a training camp before we can proclaim anything as unbending or set in stone at this point? I guess I don’t even understand your logic. Did McX just pick Smith because they think its fun to trade and pick guys? Or do they maybe they think they see something that you don’t? They make pretty big money, and had to do really good work for a long time to get to where they are, so I tend to go with the latter. I think they like Smith as a football player more than they liked the idea of picking him for sport…just because they could.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance-- that principle is contempt prior to investigation."
-- Herbert Spencer
by PredominantlyOrange on Jul 7, 2009 8:43 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
while the idea isn't unprecedented
His point was that the 2010 draft should be a better all around draft than the 2009 draft. This is a common opinion among quite a few people.
Put it this way. Suppose the Vikings had traded there 2007 pick to get Joseph Addai in 2006. Good player, decent production, not bad, huh? Except that 2007 pick was Adrian Peterson. Now that trade would look absolutely foolish.
Personally I hope Smith pans out. But he’s going to have a long year ahead of him. Not only is he going to have to prove he was worth a first, he has to play opposite Champ and get targeted way too often. And he may not have the pass rush support thats needed for him to be a ballhawk. Its going to be a steep hill to climb.
by trumanj on Jul 7, 2009 9:34 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
That goes both ways, though
I’ve seen it said repeatedly by pundits I respect that Alphonso Smith was a Top 20 talent, but that the missing 3/4" inch would cost him draft position. Not everybody agrees that Alphonso Smith was only rated highly because the CB draft wasn’t that strong, and thats true beyond the Bronco faithful. He’s got his detractors for sure, but he also got singled out as a possible steal for the team willing to forgive less than an inch— by virtually everybody. As for his combine time, read the pre-draft reports. Not one of them expresses an ounce of concern about his game speed. Not an ounce.
Besides, I’ve got the PFW preseason Draft Guide and it resembles the post season pre-draft guide but little. Nobody knows anything for sure about the 2010 draft until the 2009 college season has been played.
In my opinion, these draft debates have come down to squibbling over crumbs. Apparently, after all else is debunked, the new way to hate this draft is to proclaim 2010 a better one…12 months before it ever can be really evaluated or actually plays out.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance-- that principle is contempt prior to investigation."
-- Herbert Spencer
by PredominantlyOrange on Jul 7, 2009 9:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly PdO
In my opinion, these draft debates have come down to squibbling over crumbs. Apparently, after all else is debunked, the new way to hate this draft is to proclaim 2010 a better one…12 months before it ever can be really evaluated or actually plays out.
Neither draft has played a down in the NFL yet……How can you do anything but speculate? To try to reason that either is better, or the wrong players were chosen is insanity. Nothing can be proven. You cannot change it, so why worry about it?
"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."
by KaptainKirk on Jul 7, 2009 9:54 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
well said about uncertain futures
For example, many folks said the 2008 draft was lousy for QBs and folks would be better off shooting for the 2009 QB class…. Ask Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco what they think about those “draft grades”.
Brady Quinn was also considered the sure-fire slam-dunk #1 pick/franchise QB after his Jr. year… how’d that turn out….
I have a lot of sympathy for McGeorge’s thinking… he makes very sound, logical arguments. He’s absolutely justified in his logic behind his assessment.
However, I think anyone who thinks they have “the answer” (either way) to these questions needs to wait a few years and see how it plays out.
The thing I keep coming back to is this:
McD & X took a very clear strategy into free agency and the draft based on their evaluations of the players available and their analysis of the players on the team. In many cases, these were not the “easy” or “safe” choices that would allow them to hide behind “common knowledge” and fail with impunity.
As such, they absolutely will sink or swim based on their decisions. If the choices play out the way they obviously think they will, we’ll see real results in competitive play in the shorter-term. The alternative is that their clear strategic vision isn’t backed up by their player evaluation skills and the whole thing will implode.
I’m hoping for/expecting the former, but if the latter, have my torch and pitchfork ready… but there is really no way to tell for another 6 months, so its no use for anyone to get worked up one way or the other.
by cjfarls on Jul 7, 2009 3:12 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm interested in seeing before judging
I don’t remember where I read it, but one writer stated that A Smith intercepted the first 3 passes thrown his way at the senior bowl practice, In 20 years of covering the event, he’s never seen anything like it.
That’s a pretty good indication that Alphonso has some talent as a CB. He intercepts passes, sacks QBs, tackles runners and receivers for losses, forces fumbles, and takes some interceptions to the house. Draft analysts loved the guy, except for his height. If he was an inch taller, he might have gone in the top 10, so it’s a stretch to say he’s “VERY weak”.
Let the team play football and let the coaches coach. At the end of the season, we all will KNOW the relative draft positions of Denver and Chicago, we will know what players are on the draft board, and we will have an idea of Smith’s talents. When we have facts, that’s the appropriate time call someone unintelligent or more appropriate, mistaken.
Personally, I’m looking forward to seeing more interceptions, and I like that so many of our drafted players and FA signings have potential in that areas, as well as tackling ability.
I’m looking forward to seeing this team play.
by MichaelCushman on Jul 7, 2009 9:40 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
That’s a pretty good indication that Alphonso has some talent as a CB. He intercepts passes, sacks QBs, tackles runners and receivers for losses, forces fumbles, and takes some interceptions to the house.
Well, yeah, Michael, but other than that, what’s he got?……..grin
Hillis/Moreno in '09
by Emmett Smith on Jul 7, 2009 12:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear your complaints, McGeorge, but:
We don’t know that the 2010 draft will be awesome. We think it will, but we don’t know. Players get injured, or tank, or underperform, or stay in school. The Broncos DID know at the moment that they liked Alphonso Smith a lot.
And — this is really important — they saw that they could save a good chunk of cap room by grabbing him at a second-round pay slot. For a team that had Nate Webster replace Al Wilson and the M&M jokers replace the starting safeties, cap room matters. Cap room = depth. Shanny’s cap-to-the-max strategy meant the team was always week beyond the starters (should I dig up some game film of Roc Alexander getting abused by the Colts in January 2005?) Paying four first-round picks over 2 years = a big chunk of the cap. It may not fully offset the potential you see in 2010, but from many points of view, that kind of move is the essence of long-term thinking.
Also, can you clarify for me — what does the Saints moving Jenkins to safety have to do with Alphonso Smith?
by Chibronx on Jul 7, 2009 9:45 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, we get it- you hate the pick
Personally I’d like to see the guy, you know, PLAY a couple of downs before we pronounce him a mistake.
by AllBroncsallday on Jul 7, 2009 9:59 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good call.
I’ll go a step further. We HAVE seen him play, in college. He’s a machine! I don’t care about his height, and I don’t care about a future draft; I care about the kid’s record. It speaks for itself, and its pretty darned good. Smith has my support 100%.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Jul 7, 2009 1:21 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Me too HT
Let the kid play fercripessake! Until he proves he’s wasn’t worth the pick, I’ll assume he is and support him.
by AllBroncsallday on Jul 7, 2009 3:13 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Need a nickle
Denver has 2 excellent CB’s but after that only developemental players. IMO They desperately needed to get a nickle corner and got the best in the draft. If that nickle(Smith) helps D win a couple of games the price that was paid is lessened. In addition you get a CB that has an extra year of playing behind or beside one of the greatest corners of the game. How do you value that? I heard but not confirmed that if Ayers wasn’t available then D would have picked Smith. So if D’s pick next year is 20 or less, what a great move this is.
by 3nS on Jul 7, 2009 11:28 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
correction
I said 20 or less. I meant 20-32
by 3nS on Jul 7, 2009 3:59 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
do people realize what they are saying
when they say that next years draft has better players than this years draft, or that this years draft has worse players than last year?
This notion that one draft is “deeper” than another is bumpkus, and comes from collectivising the draft eligible players as a whole rather than looking at individuals.
It is human nature to engage in unit reduction to help absorb the workload of understanding complex things, and the draft is no exception. But I tire of hearing that somehow these drafts and draft prospects have value only as a collective, and not as the individuals they are.
In the final analysis you get to spend a pick on a player, not a draft class. THe mathematical nature of the number of picks per round, number of players taken and number of (football) positions at which players are available all defy anyone to somehow stand one class up next to another and somehow say that the value is or isn’t there.
There is no army so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 7, 2009 7:55 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
We exchanged a player we graded a one this year for a player we would have graded a one next year. Had we not had Smith graded a one, we likely wouldn’t have pulled the trigger on the trade.
I will say, however, that one benefit of a deeper draft might be more value in the later rounds; one is not engaging in collectivizing to note that, if there are fewer excellent players in the talent pool, there are fewer available to be drafted.
I’ve argued that in a weaker talent pool, it makes just as much sense to move up and take the quality players as it is to trade down and stockpile picks for a future draft. In the case of the Broncos, they benefit from bringing in new players immediately. Other teams will draft differently based on the philosophies, needs, and wants of those individual teams.
You aren’t necessarily a genius for bucking convention; but neither are you an obvious buffoon who is in over his head and has no plan for his team.
Unless you’re Al Davis, I mean.
by JeffG on Jul 7, 2009 9:04 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks NYC
RE: CB — There have been a number of sufficient arguments made at MHR for why trading next year’s pick was a reasonable decision. While the depth of next year’s draft is a compelling counterpoint, I personally felt that our secondary was so conspicuously awful last year that waiting another year to address it was not a viable option for the new regime. I will reserve judgment until we see how Alphonso turns out.
"They need a hero to tell them that the impossible can become possible..... WHEN... YOU'RE... AWESOMMMME!" -- Rhino the Hamster
by broncosmontana on Jul 7, 2009 8:19 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Thank You Nyc
New feature—— Mobile Commenting—- Cool stuff.
"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."
by KaptainKirk on Jul 7, 2009 8:42 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
cheers nyc
mobile commenting. That’s a cool new feature but my poor mobile gets too much use as it is
by mikebirty on Jul 7, 2009 9:47 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks NYC
Good articles for a slow Tuesday
….and all this dicussion about the depth of the 2010 draft what’s that about. 2010 will have just as many who become solid players or become busts as any other year. We are in the now not the future, let’s play the 2009 season first and see how that unfolds okay…
by bchiper on Jul 7, 2009 8:54 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, NYC.
"Who speaks for Charlie?"
by Tempestuous Binary on Jul 7, 2009 8:59 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
forgot to mention
that I personally think the reason 2010 is supposed to be so loaded is because of the QB potential…and not necessarily the other positions.
by trumanj on Jul 7, 2009 9:40 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
It takes an opposing team to finally say publicly
what I’ve been saying, too (from that TSN Broncos training camp preview:)
“I know there are a lot of people who don’t expect much from the Broncos, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see them better than a lot of people think. They’ve built a good offensive line and a nice set of receivers with different skills. I think Knowshon Moreno will fit in nicely and do some big things for them.
I do like the Alphonso Smith shoutout there too, even if some of you (above) have doubts about it/him. I still think he’s a great guy/player, so glad to see some awareness of him out there. It will be an interesting year, indeed, even if it is a transition year.
by underdog on Jul 7, 2009 9:41 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
More reasonable evaluations to come
Fair and reasonable assessments of the Broncos are starting now. As analysts actually look more closely at the Broncos, they have no choice but to see the offense is still excellent, and that D has made some progress. No one can rebuild a D in a single season, but it is headed in the right direction.
It’s easy to make sweeping statements about the impact of a trade or the draft, that’s great drama, but analysis of the team, player by player, position by position, tends to bring forth a rational conversation.
Especially once the Fantasy Football reviews come out. Pretty tough ignoring Denver players on O. We all know the D and SP teams are the key, again, to winning games and having a shot.
by MichaelCushman on Jul 7, 2009 9:53 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
thanks NYC
Are DBs are getting older so we took Smith who they had rated higher than others. Next year during the draft we wont have to darft a corner since we took Smith. We can look at the other positions on defease that we need to upgrade. Next year should be a deep draft but you never know with the injuries that happen. Just give the people who are running ARE team a chance.
live and die blue and orange
by jerry251 on Jul 7, 2009 10:54 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
FINALLY!!!!!!!
mobile commenting is available, and i can finally contribute. I read every article and every comment daily, and get myself frustrated that I couldn’t get in on the action. Thanks for the HT nyc. Bring on training camp!
"It's okay to eat fish, 'cause they don't have any feelings" - Kurt Kobain
by JChase8410 on Jul 7, 2009 11:06 AM MDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
the times, they are a changin'
"Have you ever heard of the emancipation proclamation?"
- "I don't listen to hip-hop"
"Born like this / Into this"
by BroncoJoe311 on Jul 7, 2009 11:26 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
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