He looks good and could be great but you have to deal with the fact that there are 4+ guys in the backfield here that could fight with him for yards and TDs.

Right now, Josh is trying to get him reps and experience, and honestly more of them and more quickly than I expected. He is almost certain to remain injury-free and maintain his good atitude, so that’s not going to be a worry. Josh is 100% sold on Moreno’s talent, and want to see him be the starter. There is no question about that. It all depends on how fast and how well Moreno picks up the offense and his responsibilities. Given what we know of his character and how many opportunities Josh is giving him, I find that likely.

That being said, there is still a semi-crowded backfield around him. There are a lot of bodies, but in the NE system that doesn’t necessarily mean severely split carries. What it means is situational split carries. So, my opinion of the realistic best-case scenario for this year is for KnoMo to get approx. 15-20 carries a game plus 5 or so catches a game. Buckhalter will spell him, Jordan will get goal-line duties, and Hillis will get some 3rd-down/goal line duties plus will split wide in a Reggie Bush-style WR/RB hybrid. I am predicting a ceiling of 1,200 yards rushing, 400 yards receiving, and 12 total TDs.

In standard scoring leagues, that means he is likely to project as a borderline RB1/RB2 and at worst an RB3. Barring catastrophic injury, he absolutely will not be a bust. I would take him sometime around Round 5 or 6.

around 1,000 + yards, but will only have 6-7 TDs. Hillis is going to get a lot of short yardage, goal-line looks. Moreno is going to be an animal this year, but the lack of goal line looks is his only issue from a FF perspective. Still a quality pick after the tier one players…
I like Felix Jones a lot too, but don’t think he is going to get as many carries as Barber – my guess is 25-30% with Tashard Choice getting another 5 – 10%.

I’ll be able to get that more specific after week 3 of the preseason.

On a very preliminary level, I have him at 5 rushing TDs and 1050 yards rushing and 2 rec’g TDs and 450 yards rec’g. Not sure he’ll break anything past a 40 yarder and won’t predict more than 1 or 2 for the year. In my league that’s exactly 12 points per game, which seems high. He may have closer to 900 yards on the ground, still w/ 5+ TDs and with 400 rec’g yards and 2 rec’g TDs (I figure he’ll score 7 TDs all in 6 and 1 or 5 and 2) and that equates to 10 points per week.

He does, however, have more value in a ppr league, which mine is not.

Since McD took the full offensive play calling over in NE (2006), the Pats had the 2nd most rushing TDs in that span (21, 17, 20). I see no reason that Denver won’t score 15-20 rushing TDs this year (a big jump from last year), and I can’t imagine Kno won’t score a third to a quarter of them. He was a very high pick and Pat & Josh & X paid him LOTS of money, so they’ll run him into the ground for sure.

Denver has a terrible schedule, so watch out for anyone saying he’ll top more than 9 td’s on the ground. He might get it, but the probability is VERY low on that.
He’s in between the 14th and 20th back taken and he should NOT anyone’s #1. He definitely has more upside than 7 or 8 fantasy TDs but, I don’t think assuming he’ll top 10 TDs is a safe play.

Just IMO.