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The Dudes Abides...Who Won the Bailey-Portis Trade? (and why Daniel Snyder doesn't care)

I've read that it's hard to know who got better end of the deal in the Champ Bailey - Clinton Portis trade.  

 

If you reside in Oakland and your friends know you as Raider (insert your first name here), it might indeed appear that you can't really know if the Broncos got the better end of this trade.  Of course, if you live in Oakland, it's possible that you are struggling to complete the 8th grade.

 

The truth is that one can measure almost anything, if one establishes up front what is to be measured.

 

One of my areas of expertise (aside from quoting The Big Lebowski)  is business valuation.  In this field, free cash flow is king.  If one can determine how much free cash flow a business generates, one can arrive at a legitimate understanding of value, and in turn, success.

 

But what about the NFL?  How do we determine who "got" more value out of this particular trade?   Was it Washington or Denver?

 

One way to look at this is through the eyes of our mild mannered Joe Six-Pack fan.  This is the guy that tailgates, listens to talk radio, and generally doesn't pay much attention to the intricacies of the 3-4 defense, Cover 3, or whether or not RB is more important to a team than CB.  He cares about what almost everyone cares about, which is wins and losses.  In short, the more wins a team gets, the more successful it is.  The more losses, the less successful.

 

Thus, one way to approach the Bailey-Portis trade is simply to examine the win and loss records of both teams after the trade.  In addition, one ought to consider such things as playoff appearances and division titles (every fan likes to say we won our division last year).  

 

The trade was made at the end of the 2003 season.  Here's what has transpired since:

 

Denver Broncos

Year

Wins

Losses

Division Titles

Playoffs

2004

10

6

1

2005

13

3

1

1

2006

9

7

2007

7

9

2008

8

8

Totals

47

33

1

2

 

Washington Redskins

Year

Wins

Losses

Division Titles

Playoffs

2004

6

10

2005

10

6

1

2006

5

11

2007

9

7

1

2008

8

8

Totals

38

42

0

2

 

Denver has notched 9 more wins than the Redskins and 1 more division title.  Both teams have made the playoffs twice.  From this perspective, Denver has gotten the better end of the deal.  9 extra wins in 5 seasons and an AFC Championship game are good proof.  But certainly anyone would admit, in the last 3 years, both teams haven't exactly been tearing it up.

 

This is another way to look at the trade, however, and this is through the eyes of both Pat Bowlen and Daniel Snyder. You see, they don't measure success exactly the same way that Joe Six-Pack does.  Sure, they care about wins and losses, but they also care about the bottom line.  And in the NFL, the bottom line ain't too bad.  It ain't too bad at all.

 

Here are some statistics you probably haven't seen that often.  They are the total valuation of the Redskins and the Broncos since 2003, along with Gross Revenues and the Operating Profit of each team.  The figures are in the millions.

 

Denver Broncos

Year Valuation    % Change    Gross Revenues    % Change    Operating Income    % Change    Op Inc./Gross Rev.
04   815              N/A                 183                            N/A                 42.8                             N/A                 23.39%
05     907              11.29%          202                           10.38%          49.4                             15.42%         24.46%
06     975              7.50%            207                            2.48%            26.9                             -45.55%       13.00%
07     994              1.95%            212                            2.42%            15.9                             -40.89%        7.50%
08     1061            6.74%            226                            6.60%            18.8                             18.24%         8.32%
          Totals          N/A                 1030                          N/A                 153.8                            N/A                N/A

 

Washington Redskins

Year  Valuation    % Change     Gross Revenues    % Change    Operating Income    % Change    Op Inc./Gross Rev.
04      1104            N/A                  245                            N/A                 69.6                             N/A                 28.41%
05      1264           14.49%           287                            17.14%          53.8                            -22.70%        18.75%
06      1423           12.58%           303                             5.57%           108.4                          101.49%        35.78%
07      1467            3.09%            312                             2.97%            66                               -39.11%         21.15%
08      1538            4.84%            327                             4.81%            58.1                            -11.97%        17.77%
           Totals          N/A                 1474                           N/A                 355.9                          N/A                  N/A

 

 

For those of you who don't like to stare at charts, let me give you the big picture:

 

  • Bowlen has increased the value of the Broncos by 30.18% since the trade.
  • Snyder has increased the value of the Redskins by 39.31% since the trade
  • Since the trade, neither team has seen a decrease in gross revenues.
  • Snyder has done a better job of keeping more of his bottom line as represented by Operating Income as  Percentage of Gross Revenues.  In Synder's worst year, he retained 17.77% of his gross before taxes.  In Bowlen's worst year, he still retained 7.50% of his gross before taxes.
  • Both are incredibly successful at making money with their teams (a big DUH!).


There are not many business in which your operating margins are 7.50% of gross...in your worst year.  This speaks to the massive success of the NFL.

 

 

But back to the question at hand.  From this perspective, who "won" the trade?

 

From the fans perspective, I say a clear case can be made for the Broncos.  More wins, more division titles, case closed.  But from an owner's perspective, the Redskins have done very well and Synder has been able to increase the value of his business more than Bowlen.   However, both franchises are in the top 11 with respect to valuation, so don't shed a tear for Mr. Bowlen (shed some for Al Davis, though, the Raiders are 31st). 

 

And ultimately, this is the point.  From Bowlen and Synder's perspective, the trade is probably a wash.  Both men have continued to use Bailey and Portis to market their teams and sell merchandise, and ultimately, increase the value of their assets.  

 

Still, I'm going with the Broncos on this one, and not simply because the wins support the argument.   Here's why. When Bailey enters the Hall of Fame (on the first ballot), he'll be a Bronco.  Portis?  Well, he's not getting in.  

 

This Hall of Fame opportunity (and hidden opportunity cost Snyder did not think about) will continue to generate revenues in ways Bowlen can smile about down the road (sales of the Elway jersey don't slow down after retirement).  

 

It's elementary, really.  

 

Don't tell Daniel Snyder, though.  He may try and buy the Hall of Fame and switch the jersey.

 

Go Broncos!!!!!!

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

Comment 28 comments  |  12 recs  | 

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Another aspect is what the player means to the team.

Portis from what I’ve seen hasn’t done too much in Washington’s locker room. Although I could be wrong, I doubt his impact has come close to Champ’s. For that, I give Denver the 3rd win for the knockout.

"FLAG! Fail on the field. Re-do." -Disco_Stu

by Joe Medina on Aug 17, 2009 9:43 PM MDT reply actions  

It wasn't Portis that provided moral boosts...

It was Dr. Do Itch Big. lol

It is said that ducks crash and die on the blue turf.

by Welcome2Boise on Aug 17, 2009 10:11 PM MDT up reply actions  

CJ

I would certainly say Champ is a “quiet” leader. Portis doesn’t strike me as a leader, but more so as a guy who makes the other guys laugh. But a lot of guys can make people laugh.

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Aug 18, 2009 9:27 AM MDT up reply actions  

Portis has been a huge boost to the marketing of the redskins due to his highly entertaining personas and interviews.

Whether this contributes to the lockerroom I guess is questionable (though i tend to think it has probably helped to keep things upbeat and happy even when the team was losing), its undisputably a benefit to the organization.

in terms of on the field performance (including indirect effects of lockerroom leadership), Denver totally ripped off Snyder by getting Champ and a 2nd… but I think the point that Snyder may not care is right on.

by cjfarls on Aug 18, 2009 12:52 PM MDT up reply actions  

Probably a wash

Both teams gained from the trade.
But in the end, a franchise RB > a franchise CB.

About as good a trade as you see in the NFL though, and, can always jump down to the mall to see Tatum Bell, and get some anytime minutes.

In the end, Denver wins

by Orange Crush on Aug 17, 2009 10:29 PM MDT reply actions  

OC

Nice addition with the Tatum reference. You had me laughing out loud. I thought about including him in the analysis, but I did not want to complicate the issue with respect to wins and losses.

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Aug 18, 2009 9:39 AM MDT up reply actions  

Another angle

Was it easier for the Broncos to replace Portis than for the Redskins to replace Bailey?

With our O Line & coach/scheme I would say yes it was. A great O Line can make it much easier to trade a great RB for the best CB in the league. The Champ Bailey’s of the world don’t come by as often as the Clinton Portis’.

People can use statistics to prove anything, 87% of all people know that.

by c_style on Aug 17, 2009 10:46 PM MDT reply actions  

C style

I think many people would agree with you. Good point. I think perhaps this is why we have seen a trend of RBs drafted later and later in the draft over the last several years and the running back by committee approach.

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Aug 18, 2009 11:17 AM MDT up reply actions  

Excellent

Dude, that is by far the best breakdown that I would never been able to manage even w/mind altering buffs. Maybe you can save the economy!!!

Say hello to my fast...

by dcrespo7 on Aug 17, 2009 10:48 PM MDT reply actions  

Thanks again, BS

Always aim to please, and if I can get a punch in at the Raiders, I will do it…wait a sec, their coach already does that.

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Aug 18, 2009 11:21 AM MDT up reply actions  

And look at it this way Dude,

who’s got a million f***ing dollars in their trunk? Huh? (or a billion or whatever)

by SlowWhiteGuy on Aug 18, 2009 9:49 AM MDT reply actions  

hahahaha, SWG

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Aug 18, 2009 11:21 AM MDT up reply actions  

Great Post.

But you are missing one important thing.

Champ will not make the hall.

Because he is a Bronco.

Don’t hold your breath. Someone much less qualified will get in instead, or they will put him in the catagory of kicker and say he just doesn’t measure up.

Sorry. That’s where I am with that place.

by precisiontint on Aug 18, 2009 10:39 AM MDT reply actions  

Precision

God I hope this won’t happen. I think if there was a lock for the HOF, it would be champ. Especially when he gets his ring this years…:-)

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Aug 18, 2009 11:19 AM MDT up reply actions  

If Champ, Brian, Alphonso and Jack

compliment eachother as well as I feel they will – It may just seal Champ’s lock on the hall….

Great read dude, I think Champ in the hall would really ‘tie the room together’

First team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! and then some, right? I think four and we oughtta let someone else have a fair shot : )

by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Aug 18, 2009 10:44 AM MDT reply actions  

PJBGF

Totally…..

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Aug 18, 2009 6:58 PM MDT up reply actions  

When this trade happened

I felt that I would make the deal from either end, meaning it was about as fair a trade as you will ever find. IMO, both sides got what they wanted, and even the players got what they wanted(although Portis may be rethinking this). So in effect, it was a win-win-win situation.
You make some valid points here Dude. Well Done.

"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"No, I'm from Iowa, I only work in outer space."

by KaptainKirk on Aug 18, 2009 1:08 PM MDT reply actions  

thanks Kaptain

I was nice to work on something other than Orton/Marshal for a change.

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Aug 18, 2009 6:53 PM MDT up reply actions  

Great Post

My two cents for it’s worth…

It’s a tough one for me, but I honestly think that the whole complex of the Broncos changes if you keep Portis. I know it’s all speculation and hard to really say, right or wrong, it’s more of idea.

I don’t think the Redskins won because they didn’t use the weapon right but I think the Broncos lost because of what they could of had.

In the first two years of Portis’ time with Denver he ran for over 1500 yards in each campaign. There were times when Portis would take over a game, he produced 5 touchdowns against a good Kansas City team. Champ Bailey meanwhile, greatly helped the Broncos in one season, 2005. He was dynamic, the D’ was good enough but I honestly feel since then that our Defensive decline (no fault of Champ’s) means that Denver, like it or not, has wasted him.

In 2003 without Bailey, the Broncos defense was ranked 4th in the NFL, in 2004 with Champ the offense ranked 4th in the NFL, was it Bailey or guys like Al Wilson and Trevor Pryce. Deltha O’Neal had 10 picks in 2003 which means Denver probably had a better front seven. Shanahan never protected his interest by acquiring the right talent and since then we have lost key players and the Defense has steadily declined.

Here is where I speculate, if Portis showed such promise in 2002 & 03 wouldn’t you assume that he would only get better in the Zone Blocking system and hit his stride right around 2006 when Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall come board? Now you are looking at the potential for a dynamic offense instead we have a Hall of Fame cornerback who in all likelyhood will be a serious question mark as to whether he Broncos will keep him after next season when his cost is so great and we will Alphonso Smith with a year under his belt and is playing on a Defense that by all measure is a work in progress.

It’s hard to ever say that acquiring a great player like Champ Bailey was a bad move, it wasn’t, but I think the Broncos haven’t gotten better on Defense and that was the purpose add in that they gave away a guy who while in Denver showed that a 2000 yard season wasn’t out of the question while he ran in the Zone Blocking scheme.

Moreno in 2009! - Check
Taylor Mays in 2010!

by Steve O' on Aug 18, 2009 2:15 PM MDT reply actions  

Steve

All valid points. Sound argument. I REALLY agree with you about Champ being wasted. Certainly he has been misused at best. The year he had the picks he was being considered for defensive MVP, however. So in his years, I think this was the one year they got it right.

Regarding Portis, it is extremely hard to know for sure, but I think he would have been a better back in Denver’s system than he’s shown in Washington.

Thanks for the compliment too!

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Aug 18, 2009 6:57 PM MDT up reply actions  

the extra 2nd rounder Denver got was the key and they used it on Tatum Bell

As far as Portis/Bailey I think it’s a tie. Each one is superb. What could have made this a great trade for Denver was the 2nd round pick they got. Tatum Bell had a couple so-so years but nothing great. He was then traded fo Detroit for (I think) part of the Dre Bly deal. If Denver had drafted a better 2nd rounder it would have been a great win for Denver. As is I think Denver won because they had Tatum for a couple years and he did a so/so job and won a few ballgames.

by mauibroncofan on Aug 18, 2009 3:31 PM MDT reply actions  

maui

I did not include Tatum in the analysis, but I could have put it any better myself.

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Aug 18, 2009 6:57 PM MDT up reply actions  

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