Ayer's Will Be a Late Bloomer, But He Will Bloom

Hi everybody, I haven't really contributed much too this site other than the occasional comment or fanshot.  Every once in a while I will toss in a Jab or a sarcastic remark.  However, I have been sensing a growing amount of concern over the play of Robert Ayers and I would like to address this.  Long story short, I don't think we should be worried and I will explain myself after the jump.

 

As with preseason games, we shouldn't get too apocalyptic about Ayers either. This is his pre-career.  Here is why; it is a common misconception that OT's and QB's have the hardest transition from College to the Pro's.  DE's in the 4-3 and OLB's in the 3-4 are having the most difficult learning curve right now.

The problem is that so many OT's are very good at their jobs right now.  In college a single signature move will get you a lot of sacks...be it the Bullrush a spin move or the speed rush.  The rare DE will also have a swim move or something of that nature.  In the pro's the starting OT's tackles know how to counter almost every move a DE or rushing OLB can throw at them.  Therefore, a pro must increase his repertoire and keep the OT guessing as to what move they need to counter. Even though DE/OLB is one of the more simple positions on the field that skill level required for perfection of these simple concepts has greatly increased.

My point thus far is this,   While we are seeing an increase in effective rookie play from the QB and OT position, that is countered by a decrease in effective DE/OLB rookie play.  This issue isn't a condemnation of the talent coming into the league, but it does give us an idea of where the best coaching is currently taking place in college. Even in the SEC this is advantage currently on the offensive side of the ball.

I will give one key case example named Mario Williams.  While my current career is accumulating and reporting statistics, that is not what I am going to give you now.  This is just a conceptual argument.  Mario Williams had one of the most impressive Rookie combines in history.  His measurable's and motor were absolutely off the chart, coupled with a very productive college career.  His talent was never in question. Some pundits believed that Mario (and Robert Ayers), and I'm looking at Mike Mayock here, expected these players to dominate from their position right out of the gate.  There reasoning seems sound, i.e. These guys play a simple and mostly physical position.  Mario Williams (Robert Ayers) have exceptional physical ability including: strength, speed, agility and energy.  The problem is that with only a few moves, a good left tackle (of which there are many in the league right now) can learn to counter and completely shut down even the most physically gifted and hard working rushers if they only have one move. Secondly, the schemes that college defenses employ are painfully simple.  They are so simple in fact that having a scheme where you can be both a rusher and a cover guy (3-4) is almost unheard of.  Their large rosters enable them to use role players for rushing and covering.  Therefore, the finer coaching and schematic knowledge coming to college defender's is sadly inadequate.

 

The result was that the freakishly gifted Mario Williams was almost invisible  his rookie year.  The people cried bust, the pundits claimed that the Texans surely should have taken Reggie Bush or Vince Young (LMFAO), these guys were producing.  The problem was that Mario Williams had a single move, and that was an explosive and devastating bull rush.  Even a physically weak OT can counter this if he know's it is coming.  Fast forward to last year, and Mario has learned new moves.  That is the only difference but it was the only thing that mattered.  Last year the original assessment showed its fruit and Mario Williams was utterly unstoppable.  This is because his learning finally caught up to his talent.

So, even though we want to be impatient with Ayer's, the unfortunate truth is that he lacked complete coaching in College. Ayers has a single signature move identical to Williams, i.e. the powerful and devastating bullrush.  Since the defense is behind the offense in college, the defensive rookie players will be behind the offensive rookie players.  Coaching takes time.  Therefore, nobody should expect a big year from Ayers despite his impressive talent level.  Like Williams he will probably be invisible this, his rookie year.  However, when his coaching has caught up to his talent we will finally be able to see what he can really do.

Instead of being concerned about Ayer's and his draft status we just need to accept that being a rookie playing the position he does is probably a two year project even at his draft level.  Try not to pay attention this year, don't worry about him being lost. In this day and age of the game this is unfortunately normal.  However, when it clicks expect and hope him to shake the earth. Given the simplicity of his position, we will all be able to identify the game/moment when the light comes on.  Until then though, expect to see flashes but no more than that. And give him time.

Though it may not seem like it, I am trying to be encouraging.  While I predict a very quiet rookie year for Ayer's we should not be surprised or dismayed.  His time will come, he has the talent, I think he has the dedication and desire..he just does not yet have the coaching.  He will get that coaching, but the light won't come on this year or I will be very surprised.