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Knowshon Moreno 2009 Projection

I will try to keep this one short as well. I had so much fun with the hypothetical projection with Kyle Orton that I worked it out with Moreno. Man it was tough and complex, but I believe it could potentially be a great year for this running back.

Again, all of these are only but so valid considering he only has 3 carries, 18 yards and a 6.0 yards per carry average to his NFL career. The fact that it is also in a preseason game, we do not have a lot to go with. His college stats will have to do, knowing very well that most backs do not transfer their production from college to the pros. For this fun argument, let's say he does.

Here are his totals from Georgia:

  ATT YDS YPC TDS REC YDS TDS GMS
Career 498 2736 5.5 30 53 645 2 26

 

I went through and used the same stats for the running game as I did from the passing game with Orton. If the offense runs the ball 45 percent of the time, has 9 possessions per game and 7 plays per possession, then the running backs will get a total of 28 carries.

Let us assume that for his rookie campaign he gets a maximum of 14 carries and a minimum of 10 carries for each game.

Let us assume that he at best, duplicates his college average with a maximum of a 5.5 yards per carry average and a minimum of 4.7.

Finally, let us assume that he plays all 16 games.

If we focus on the first variable - carries per game, while the YPC stays the same at 5.5, here is what it will look like.

CAR/G YDS
14 1232
13 1144
12 1056
11 968
10 880

 

If we then decide his touches will stay constant at 14, but his YPC average will drop, here is what it will look like.

YPC YDS
5.5 1232
5.3 1187
5.1 1142
4.9 1098
4.7 1053

 

Again, these are all relative to his college performance.

If we then take his average of both of them, we get 12 carries per game and a 5.1 YPC average, his total yards will come out to 979 yards.

In college, he averaged 91.2 yards per touchdown and 16.6 carries per touchdown.  If we use those for the averages, then he will wind up with 11 touchdowns according to his yards and 12 touchdowns according to his carries.

There is a lot more that I went into, and you can see it here:

http://denverstats.webnode.com/stats/august-2009/a2009-regular-season-predictions-and-projections/part-2/running-back/

However, here is my final hypothetical projection. 

For this chart, I believe he will get 14 carries a game. I also believe he will only suffer a slight drop in YPC average at 5.3. Finally, I factored in health or learning curve and used 15 games instead of 16.

ATT YDS YPC TDS REC YDS YPR TDS
210 1113 5.3 13 32 390 12.2 2

 

The biggest question mark that I have is that Moreno was the featured back while he was at Georgia. Here, he may not get all the looks that he did in college, especially if Jordan and Hillis get carries near the goal line. The only real change that I felt would be difficult to achieve would to lower the TD total to around 8 or 9.

With all that said, I believe it is possible for him to have an awesome rookie season. Like these stats, though, it is paramount for him to stay healthy.

Here is me hoping he remains healthy and becomes the great running back that the coaching staff believes he could be.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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