• Denver had 632 passing plays.
• Denver was sacked 12 times. 
• A Denver running back ran 316 times for 1558 yards and a 4.93 yards per carry average.
• Receivers "ran" 14 times for 104 yards and a 7.43 yards per "carry" average.
• As a whole, they average 4.8 yards per carry.

Although receivers do get running plays, it isn't the same type of execution or blocking as if a running back gets the ball. We will focus on the running game from backs and protecting the quarterback.

When we look at last year, three lineman had a combined Casey Wiegmann was forced into the center position in his first year with the Broncos. Ryan Clady was a rookie at LT, and Ryan Harris at RT was only in his second year.

Denver suffered a great deal of injuries at the running back position. Even though this happened, as a unit, they still performed well considering the circumstances.

On to the projections.

Here is last years performance. I am going to leave out the totals for wide receiver because it is more useful to pay attention to the running backs.

Last year, this system Shanahan had in place was simply much more simple than the way in place now. The turnover rate has been huge. However, as we have seen so far in preseason, the first unit offensive line has performed as well as they have last year. No one is expecting this unit to perform any worse than it did last year, regardless of the upcoming year against great defenses.

Here are last year's opponents and their total sacks and sacks per game for the year. This year's upcoming schedule is to the right.

What we can draw from this is simple:

• Denver still plays some teams that are terrible at getting to the quarterback. CIN, CLE, WAS, and two games with KC is 4 games with teams that had under 20 sacks and one under 30.
• I am willing to adjust SD to above 30 simply because Merriman was out the whole year. With him in the lineup, SD had 46 in 2005, 61 in 2006 and 42 in 2007.
• On the other hand, they play some of the best defenses in DAL, PIT, PHI and NYG. Although BAL has a top notch defense, they only had 34 sacks to show for it.

Here is a look at last years games and how Denver faired as a unit against the pass rush.

Against their division, Denver allowed a total of 2 sacks in 6 games. Against everyone else, Denver allowed a total of 10 sacks in 10 games.

Denver had a total of 8 games where they did not allow a sack. The most allowed was 3 against NE and CAR. When you look at these two games, Denver was outscored 71-17. As much as I want to be realistic and believe a 44-7 or 31-10 outcome is possible, I truly can't find anything that suggest that. Denver has shown, even if it is the preseason, they they will use long and methodical drives to score. They most likely will win the TOP battle. Not to mention, they were last in the league in 2008 with a -17 TO differential. They may be in the negative, but we can all assume they will not be at -17.

This is important because although that would seem like it gives other teams more opportunities to sack the quarterback, it will do several things.

1. The opponent will have fewer opportunities to score
2. Our defense will be fresher and more productive
3. If we get a lead, passing will not be as necessary
4. Even if the Broncos are down, if it is close or even just two scores, they can still rely on the run as well and stay two-dimensional
5. Denver will have a much improved running game which will help all of these areas

Sure we can only "assume" that they will stay healthy, but the chances of all of them going down for most of the season at some point is very unlikely.

Since the sample size is only 16 and not at least 30, we can't exactly sat they are outliers. However, these two games do appear that way, where all the others were either 1 allowed or none at all. This is a huge plus for Denver.

On to the negative. As I said earlier, they face a lot of great defenses.

For this instance, sacks are difficult to project simply because for a team like Denver who has a great offensive line, a sack is not the norm. If we use the sample size of 632 dropbacks, then each of the 12 sacks would definitely count as an outlier. Often times, what causes a sack is simply a mistake or miscommunication. Other times it is a great play by the defense.

Struggling Defenses: I see no reason why Denver will not shut out their division 5 out of the 6 games. I believe they will allow 1 sack in SD. Not too much has changed for those teams, and I believe Denver has shown a little improvement. TOTAL: 1

Middle of the Pack: Denver faces CLE, CIN, WAS and IND who were not very successful at getting sacks. That is 4 more games where I believe Denver could easily allow 0 sacks. BAL and NE also had modest sack totals considering the talent they have. I will give BAL and NE one sack each. TOTAL: 2

Elite Sackers: Finally, Denver faces DAL, PIT, PHI and the NYG. For DAL - it is at the beginning of the season, which means there is a good chance Denver will start fast and be healthy. For PIT and NYG, the Broncos are home as well. PHI is the only one of these teams that the Broncos go on the road against. For this reason, I am projecting they only get sacked 6 times from these teams, going 1-1-2-2 in any order.

The reason for this is because Denver will be throwing less than last year and will be closer in the games they struggle allowing for a more balanced attack.

Let's assume that Orton has the same constant of a 55 percent passing offense with 9 possesions each game and 7 plays per possesion. This comes out to 35 attempts per game or 560 for the season. If we apply their rate from last year at 1 sack every 52 passes, then it comes out to around 11 sacks.

Although Denver faces 4 great defenses when it comes to sacks, Denver allowed only 1 sack to their top-two opponents from last year in MIA and the NYJ. Denver actually faired worse against NE and CAR, but I already addressed those games. With half of the teams Denver faces this year being very average, there is no reason to believe allowing only 10 sacks is too lofty of a prediction.

Although the offensive line is the most important part of a running game, in the end, the running backs have to stay healthy, find the holes, and play well.

All we have to go on right now is the career averages for the 4 main running backs the Broncos have. Here is each of their YPC averages.

1. Moreno: 5.5 (2 years - college) As long as he stays healthy, there is no reason to believe he will showing anything less.
2. Buckhalter: 4.5 (8 years - Eagles) He has only played 5 seasons and has had his best two years in 2007 with a 5.0 YPC average and in 2008 with a 4.9 YPC average. I believe he will also be around these totals as well with a superior offensive line.
3. Hillis: 5.0 (1 year - Broncos) He may be great for short yardage situations, but he is still a very good runner. Last year, he was the leading rusher and had a great average for his style of running. Even with the situations he may be put in, I still believe he will maintain an impressive average YPC.
4. Jordan: 4.2 (4 years - Jets, 3 years - Raiders, 1 year - Patriots) He struggled with a bad Raiders team for 3 years, but with the Jets and the Patriots, he has a 4.8 YPC average. Last year is probably the most likely statistical performance from him of any of the other seasons in his career. He will be in a lot of short-yardage situations, but he is capable of repeating his performance from last year.

Although games will fluctuate depending on who is healthy and running well, these are simply averages.

As I have projected earlier, Moreno will have 5.3 YPC. I will take Buckhalter's last two years where he has been playing the best of his career, giving him 4.9 YPC. Hillis may not be able to match his great average from last year, but that is all we have to go with, giving him 5.0 YPC. Jordan will most likely duplicate his season from last year, giving him 4.5 YPC.

I have already designated Moreno with 14 carries per game. I believe Buckhalter will get 6-7 carriers per game because he will be the number 2 back and will play a lot between the 20's I believe Hillis and Jordan will get 3-4 carriers per game each as an average.

Now lets adjust Moreno's carries per game to 13, 12 and 11, and give those to Buckhalter, the number 2 back.

*Note: receivers had 14 carries last year, or about 1 per game. Since their average of 7.4 was significantly higher and can only help the rest of the team, I left them out and gave the carries to everyone else.

From what we can take from this, the most common occurence is that the running backs as a whole will have a 5.0 YPC average. This obviously depends a lot on whether Moreno's great 5.3 avergage holds up. For now, that is the projection I will hold on to. After the first 4 games of the regular season, I will come back to this and improve this projection. An interesting note, though, is Denver had a 4.8 YPC average with a less talented group than this year. A 5.0 YPC average seems reasonable here.

*    *    *

To close, I believe it is too difficult to really set up a true "model" to statistically project in the scientific meaning that Denver will allow a certain sack total against Group A and then another total against Group B. Sacks are simlply too random.

Too often, people want analysis based on stats. I believe that is what most of you who have read my recent posts would want. On the other hand, I base stats off of analysis.It isn't perfect, but it uses reason instead of just an outline that never changes.

So here is my projection based on my analysis and opinion for the Offensive Line.

You may disagree with the results and my methods, but I never said it was perfect. It is as much a surpised to me as it is to you. For me, it isn't about the final numbers, but the process to figure out what has to happen to get them.