Brad's NFL Picks - 2009

      Brad's NFL Picks is back for it's 9th season (second season posting to MHR). Once again we'll keep track of the home team vs. visitor record (146-109-1 in 08 in the regular season, 5-5 in the playoffs), and the NFC vs AFC record (32-32 in 07, AFC 34, NFC 30 in 08). Brad's NFL Picks was 168-97-1 through the Super Bowl last season.

     So here we go - 32 winless teams get to play with real bullets this weekend - Titans and Steelers get to start the shooting tonight. (Last season's record in parentheses).

     the Thursday night game:

Tennessee (13-3, 0-1 in the playoffs) at Pittsburgh (12-4, 3-0 in the playoffs) - 6:30 MDT. NBC. Titans won the tough AFC South last year with a 13-3 record (best in the NFL), but, alas, lost to the Ravens 13-10 in the playoffs. The T's think they have improved their passing game, which wasn't very good last year, and hope to do better than last season.

Neither team made whole sale changes in the off season, except the T's let DT Albert Haynesworth leave as a free agent. Steelers relied on defense last year, and didn't do a whole lot to improve a porous O line. These two teams met in Week 16 in Tennessee and the Steelers got pasted, 31-14. Steelers had beaten Baltimore the week before, thereby clinching the AFC North, so maybe they didn't care, but you'd think they would have wanted to win the game for the home field advantage thing. But maybe the Ravens had just tired them out. Titans think they have a good replacement for Haynesworth in Jason Jones, who filled in well for Fat Albert late last season. Titans RB's are speedy, and very good, Chris Johnson, and LenDale White, who should be motivated by his contract year. Steelers ILB Lawrence Timmons will miss the game, and I'm taking the Titans, even though everyone else is taking the Steelers.

      the 11:00 Sunday games:

Jacksonville (5-11) at Indeewaplis (12-4; 0-1) - Division game. Jags for years have thought they were close to taking over from the Colts in the AFC South, but after a 5-11 season, they need to rethink that. 15 players on IR last year will help cause a losing season, but the Jags made a lot of changes anyway. Colts have a lot of changes also, as Coach Tony Dungy retired. New Head Coach Jim Caldwell has been with Dungy for 6 years, so the Colts are hoping for a smooth transition. Jags' QB David Garrard was either sacked or knocked to the ground 110 times last year. Take the Colts at their oil drum, which is located somewhere in the same universe that the rest of us are.

Detroit (0-16) at New Orleans (8-8) - Detroit went defeated last year, while the Saints were 8-8. Detroit has a new GM, a new head coach, a new rookie QB (Matthew Stafford, out of Georgia) and a new logo (it's still a blue lion, but it looks tougher). Stafford will start for the Lions, but the Saints are a better team than their 8-8 record in 08. RB's Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush are banged up, but I expect a big game from former Bronco Mike Bell. QB Drew Brees is one of the best.

Philadelphia (9-6-1; 2-1) at Carolina (12-4; 0-1) - Eagles were 9-6-1 (remember when Donovan McNabb was astonished after the tie game at Cincinnati when he learned that an NFL regular season game could actually end in a tie?) but they made the playoffs and won at Minnesota (26-14) and at the Giants (23-11) before losing at Arizona 32-25. Carolina was 12-4 but lost to the Cardinals in the playoffs 33-13 when QB Jake Delhomme threw 5 interceptions and also lost a fumble (hey, it was the day after his birthday - give the man a break).

Coach Fox of the Panthers likes to run the ball (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart) and have Delhomme throw it occasionally to Steve Smith, one of the best receivers in the game. Their really good O line helps a lot.

Eagles made some noise in the off season by signing QB Michael Vick, recently released from prison for torturing animals. He won't play at all the first two games, and even then will back up Donovan McNabb. Anyway, Coach Andy Reid made a lot of changes in the off season (he let all-pro safety Brian Dawkins go to the Broncos) even though the team made it to the NFC Championship game. I think the Eagles' defense will take some time to adjust to playing without Brian Dawkins (their leader for the last 13 years, and he's being replaced by a rookie), and the Eagles also have to adjust to the loss of D Coordinator Jim Johnson, so I'm taking Carolina at home.

Dallas (9-7) at Tampa Bay (9-7) - 'Boys retained Wade Phillips as head coach even though they missed the playoffs, while getting rid of Terrell Owens, Pacman Jones, Tank Johnson, and safety Roy Williams. Tony Romo is the QB, Marion Barber is the RB, and Roy Williams, who arrived from the Lions last midseason, is the receiver. That's about all I know about the Cowboys. Oh, they have a new, 1.1billion dollar stadium, but that's for next week when the Giants come to Dallas.

Bucs were also 9-7 last year, but have a new GM and a new head coach in Raheem Morris, the youngest coach in the NFL (he'll turn 33 this Sunday). Morris was the DB coach for the Bucs last year, but when Monte Kiffin left the Bucs for the University of Tennessee, Morris was named Defensive Coordinator. But then, when Jon Gruden was fired, Morris was named head coach. Bucs picked up the much travelled Byron Leftwich, who will probably be the starting QB. I'm taking the Cowboys here - too many changes in Tampa.

New York Jets (9-7) at Houston (8-8) - Jets have a new head coach in Rex Ryan (former defensive coordinator of the Ravens) and a new QB in Mark Sanchez, a rookie from USC. Texans head coach Gary Kubiak is in his 4th year, and expectations are high. They have Matt Schaub at QB and Andre Johnson at wide. Texans started 0-4 last year, at least partly due to the disruption caused by Hurricane Ike, that blew up their stadium and caused game number two against the Ravens to be postponed. But the Texans finished 8-8 and hopes are high for this season. Sanchez showed some ability in the pre-season, but the game is about to speed up for him. I'm taking the Texans at home.

Kansas City (2-14) at Baltimore (11-5; 2-1) - Chiefs were 2-14 last year, and have a new head coach, who fired his O coordinator a couple weeks ago. Ravens were a playoff team last year with rookie QB Joe Flacco. Chiefs O line is not good - Ravens D line is very good. This is a no-brainer. Ravens win at home.

Denver (8-8) at Cincinnati (4-11-1) - Broncos had the big off season, with the firing of head coach Mike Shanahan and the hiring of the young Josh McDaniels, the O coordinator of the Patriots. The Broncos shipped QB Jay Cutler and a fifth round pick to the Bears for QB Kyle Orton, two first round picks and a third. This all happened after Cutler behaved like a three year old after Shanahan was fired and essentially accused owner Pat Bowlen of lying (Cutler said he'd never received Bowlen's phone calls - Bowlen said he had the phone records). Anyway, McDaniels has made huge changes in the Broncos. New D coordinator Mike Nolan has switched the D from the old 4-3 to a 3-4, or is it a 5-2? Anyway, the Bronco D has shown some aggression in the preseason, a huge change from the last few years. Brian Dawkins joined the team in the off season after thirteen years with the Eagles - talk about aggression! On O, the Broncos will provide many different looks from week to week. But the question this week is are they ready for a Bengals team that thinks it can go to the playoffs?

Bengals D was 12th in the league last year, and they think they have improved. On O, they have a healthy Carson Palmer back at QB (he missed most of last year), and good receivers in Chad Ochocinco and Chris Henry, both of whom have had attitude problems in the past, but who seem to have seen the light. This is a tough call, so when in doubt, go with the visiting team, right? I'm taking the Broncos, who will win if the D gets after Palmer early (and it will).

Minnesota (10-6; 0-1) at Cleveland (4-12) - Bret Favre has un-retired yet again, and is now a Viking. He just joined the team a couple weeks ago, but will start. He'll do well enough so that the Vikings should be able to beat the Browns behind RB Adrian Peterson, maybe the best player in the NFL, and a great Vikings defense. Cleveland is still getting things together with a new head coach, Eric Mangini, who used to be the head coach of the Jets.

Miami (11-5; 0-1)) at Atlanta (11-5; 0-1) - Two of the surprise teams last year. Miami was 1-15 in 07 but finished 11-5 in 08, good enough to win the AFC East (they lost to the Ravens 27-9 in the playoffs). A new coach (Tony Sparano), a new boss man in Bill Parcells, a new QB in Chad Pennington (released by the Jets after they signed Bret Favre) and a rejuvenated LB Joey Porter led the charge.

Atlanta was 4-12 in 07, suffering through the ugliness of Michael Vick and his torturing of animals, and also the desertion of rookie Head Coach Bobby Petrino after 13 games. But the sun came out in 08. Behind sensational rookie QB Matt Ryan and the running of Michael Turner, Falcons fans were able to forget 07.

Can the Falcons have another winning year? History says no - the Falcons have never had back to back winning seasons. And they play in the up and down NFC South. But can they beat the Dolphins this Sunday? Sure they can. "On any given Sunday..." I'm taking the Falcons at home. Should be a good game.

     the 2:15 MDT games:

Washington (8-8) at New York Giants (12-4; 0-1) - Division game. A repeat of last year's opener - Reds at the Meadowlands. Last year the Reds lost 16-7. Reds went on to win the next 4, but then went 4-7 to finish at 8-8, in head coach Jim Zorn's first year. QB Jason Campbell is in his 5th year, and has never had stability in his coaches. It's a contract year for Campbell, and I gotta hope for him - nice guy. Clinton Portis is the RB (and LaDell Betts). Giants had a good year before being bounced from the playoffs by the Eagles, and should be back with their good D. Giants' receivers are a question, but I'll pick the Giants to win this one.

San Francisco (7-9) at Arizona (9-7; 3-1) - Division game. Mike Singletary took over as head coach in mid - season last year, and the team won five of its last seven. Singletary has the Niners playing with passion and toughness, like he did as a linebacker for the Bears. Cardinals had a Cinderella year, going to the Super Bowl, which they might have won if not for the errant toss by Kurt Warner at the end of the first half which was returned 99 yards for a TD (Cards lost the game by 4 points). Cardinals have looked sluggish in pre season, and I'm thinking the Niners are going to hurt them.

St. Louis (2-14) at Seattle (4-12) - Division game. Rams have a new head coach in Steve Spagnuolo, who was the Giants' D coordinator the last few years. But despite a lousy Rams' record last year, Spagnuolo has made few changes. Seattle has a new head coach also, Jim Mora, but he was with the team last year and was already anointed as the replacement for Mike Holmgren, who had announced his retirement. Neither team excites me, but St. Louis excites me the less, and I'll take the Seahawks at home.

     the SNF game:

Chicago (9-7) at Green Bay (6-10) - Division game. Packers weren't so hot in Aaron Rogers first season as the replacement for Bret Favre, but it wasn't Rogers' fault. He had a very good year (over 4,000 yards passing), and got a contract extension as a result. Packers lost seven games by 4 points or less, two of them in OT. They are switching to a 3-4 defense (the hot thing this year), but Dom Capers seems to have them doing it nicely. Green Bay was 13-3 in 07, could have been about the same last year but for the close games, and the Pack is my early favorite to win the NFC.

Chicago is pumped about their new QB Jay Cutler. They haven't had a standout QB since Jim McMahon in the 80's. But their O line isn't so good, their receivers aren't great (except for the tight ends) and the defense is aging a bit. Matt Forte had a very good year as a rookie RB, especially as a receiver. Packers counter with Ryan Grant. Anyway, I'd be a fool to not take the Packers at Lambeau. This will be a fun game to watch.

     the MNF games:

     at 5:00 MDT on ESPN:

Buffalo (7-9) at New England (11-5) - Division game. Patriots get Tom Brady back from his busted leg (suffered in last season's opener) but they have made major changes on their defense. They're going to have six or so new starters on D. Meanwhile, the Bills signed Terrell Owens, who will not start pouting this early in the season, so I'm taking the Bills here (everyone else is taking the Patriots), even though they will be without starting RB Marshawn Lynch, who is serving a three game league imposed suspension. But the Bills released stalwart RB Dominic Rhodes, so they must feel good about their other RB's - Fred Jackson ran for 136 against the Pats in Week 17 last year (a 10-0 loss for the Bills).

     at 8:15 MDT on ESPN:

San Diego (8-8) at Oakland (5-11) - Division game. Chargers were 8-8 last year, Raiders were 5-11 (0-2 vs the Chargers). You gotta take the Chargers here, even though they traditionally start slow and even though it's in Oakland. Rivers is a much better QB than Russell, and the Chargers get LB Shawne Merriman back after being out all last year with an injury. Merriman is what makes the Chargers D go.