…but I see Denver winning 19-6 in a game not really that close. Carson Palmer might, maybe, potentially return to form, but they can’t protect him. They have a terrible mismatch at S against the Denver scheme, which means Roy Williams, Crocker, and guys like Rey Maluga are going to be forced into coverage situations they can’t handle. Denver, meanwhile, will move the ball will relative ease but be stiffled in the redzone for the most part.

My game MVPs:

Offense— Huge game from Hillis, mostly catching the ball.

Defense- Doom makes life miserable and forces at least two turnovers through pressure.

ST— Matt Prater nails at least 4 field goals, mostly inside the 20.

Final: Denver 19 -Cincy 6, but very misleading.

for fear of jinxing. ;-) So I abstained here.

But I think it will be a fairly close game, and have a good feeling about it, will just say that much.

I believe the only two sustained and long drives in our last two games against our D came during the hurry-up.

I think we match up better than Colin Cowdung thinks and we should win this one….the red zone play will be key for us.

Cincy’s problems at TE and pass-catching RB. They are not in a position to exploit the Denver D’s biggest weakness.

but worry that people will overreact no matter what happens in this game. As you point out above, they had a huge blowout win to open last season and looked good at times for awhile after that but ended up imploding terribly last season. With a new coach and scheme and a lot of new players, while they’re perfectly capable of winning this game, and the schedule does start off easier and gets harder, they still seem like a team that will play better and better as the season progresses.

I can’t get this point across to people who are ready to crucify at the drop of a hat, but still would like to emphasize a little patience. A win to start would be huge, no doubt, but whatever happens won’t foretell the team’s long-term future with McDaniels.

I would say we probably loss close for three reasons:
 
1) Historically we don’t do well on early morning away games.
2) I think Cinncy sees this as a must win since they have a tough division to play in.
3) We typically don’t do well in Cinncy, I can remember the Corey Dillion game and that Monday night game, I don’t know what it is but we have a tough time playing there

as per Denver Post

(barring a last minute stitches in time to save nine)

Wearing a glove on his right throwing hand to protect his bandage, which protects the stitches to close the gash on his right index finger, Orton is throwing the ball with his usual zip and depth.

Orton, perhaps by coaches orders, said: ""We’ll see on Sunday." But he also said he has had no limitations.

would be that Denver is actually competitive in every game it plays this year and well equipped to avoid a blowout by anyone.

I think the best teams I have seen in the last 10 years all started a bit shaky in the early season games, caught some breaks and were able to continue to improve allseason long reaching a peak in late December.

While a blowout win would be nice, I will be wellengouraged with a team playinga s one and being competitive throughout the game with a moerate win. If that happens, we will see a lot of good things from the team all season long.

I also expect this group to look a lot diffrent than they did in preseason. The offense will look diffrent particularly in the ara of what kinds of passes are being thrown and the defense will look far more varied and agressive than they have in the last four games. This is when it counts folks.

I won’t et my hopes up that they will come away with a victory in this contest. If they do then we all celebrate but the rebuilding isn’t over yet. Lots of things have to come together to make this team great and it isn’t about Kyle Orton or losing Jay Cutler they are just parts of this puzzle. They will eventually get the ball going in the direction it needs to go.

Make mine 21-16 with Cincy winning.

I think red zone execution will be the determining factor in this game. From what I’ve seen, Denver still struggles in the red zone.

IMO, I feel like our D will win this game for us. Its just a tingling sensation deep in my mind that says Doom will pummel Palmer, causing 1 forced, “empty-hand” fumble, that Super Mario will return for a TD. I also look for tipped passes to turn into INTs, hopefully multiple, and Weapon X is gonna open that can marked “Full Funk 45” on any receiver foolish enough to catch over the middle.
I’m sooooo psyched for Sunday!

The first regular season game this century without Shanahan at the helm, and though I think the off season has left a lot to be desired in terms of handling of players, I do think that McDaniels has the potential to be a good, perhaps even great, coach….there is more riding on this game for him than perhaps any rookie coach in the league..a convincing win with improved play on both sides of the ball will buy him some measure of credibility from fans and perhaps even some “experts” in the media. I for one expect a few surprises and I am not sure that we should use preseason as a guide for what might happen…perhaps I am just drinking the kool aid, but I expect/hope to see a more disciplined squad, playing more physically and with more precision and I think that will translate to a good start.

Your pre-game Chalk Talk posts really help me identify what to look for and understand the game better.

this is just from fantasy football perspective, but thought it cool to see Hillis get some love.
In Brandon Funston’s Week 1 Wild Cards column for Yahoo:

DENVER BRONCOS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Option play: Peyton Hillis(notes), Denver, RB (Yahoo! Plus ownership/start percentage: 17%/1%)

Deep thoughts: It appears likely that Hillis will handle goal-line carries for the Broncos. In addition, he’s an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Don’t be surprised if new head coach Josh McDaniel finds a way to get him 8-10 touches a week, even if Knowshon Moreno(notes) and Correll Buckhalter(notes) are healthy. With Moreno expected to be limited in Week 1 as he comes back from a preseason knee injury, there’s an even higher probability that Hillis gets 10-12 touches.

You called out several things I had not considered. Very helpful.

I voted “too close to call”. This is NOT a gimme by any means.

Thanks and rec’d!

Great work HT!

Here’s how I see our offense attacking the Cincy D:

1. Forcing their suspect safeties and nickel corner into coverage duties and taking advantage of them. Cincy has strong CB’s, so I expect to see a lot of Stokely working against their 3rd corner, this is a strong matchup, and one our new “Amoeba” offense should be able to take advantage of. I also see us finding ways to get deep and challenge Roy Williams, who couldn’t cover Ronald Fields on a deep route whilst roped to him. My secondary team is the Dallas Cowboys, I have seen this travesty of a coverage safety in action, engage him and get big yards, very simple.

2. Due to Cincy’s strength against the run, we can put all those bubble screens and RB screen passes we worked so much on in the preseason to good use. I can’t wait to see Knowshon in space doing his thing.

Everyone is think Orton is wounded and sucky on the med- to long passes. That’s where it’s going – probably to Sheffler (those 30 yard catches he’s so good at) and Hillis (a la Miami last year). Balanced by power running up the gut.

I pick Denver to win this game in a close one.
My longterm opinion is that this team has not quite gelled yet. It still seems like it is not running on all 8 cylinders. Some of that is injuries to key people. It seems like the players who needed to be there to make things gel ended up injured. i.e. Orton, Moreno Buckhalter, Bmarsh, Bdawk. Fortunately seemingly the first 4 games are lesser opponents. i figure 3-1 in those games. Then by the 5th game the team should come together but they then face seemingly better teams. so statistically or according to the score they won’t seem better but actually will be. so next 5 games 2-3. The finally 7 games the qquality of opponents will ease up again. Denver will go 5-2 during this time. Ending up 10-6 and a much better team than they are right now.

at the line of scrimmage offensively and defensively. It appears that Cincy’s lines are mediocore.

Thanks

As long as this team respects Cincy (and I believe that they do), I see us sneaking out of there with a win.

My hope is that we stop the run early, and force them to play pass. A quick score from our offense would help that issue as well. With an Cincy OL that is not entirely cohesive, I think that gives us the advantage. Also, middle pressure will be key. If Fields and Baker can push the pocket in the middle, then Palmer should be seeing a lot of Doom. Without it, the OTs can just slide the edge rushers right by and behind Palmer on pass plays. No real middle threat due to the loss of their TEs should help here as well, by allowing Nolan some additional freedom in the blitz package. My main areas of concern are the flats, the deep stuff and the use of the no-huddle.

On offense, I hope to see a huge day from Knowshon and Sheffler. If we can get these guys going early, then the outside stuff is going to be there. Especially with Cincy’s depleted DB corps. Also, long drives are a must, even if they only lead to FGs. The same thing applies to Palmer and Ocho that applies to Manning and Wayne: They can’t hurt you from the bench. Prater is going to need to hit everything he attempts this game as well.

Anyway, great stuff, HT. Much appreciated.

Chalk Talk is back!! Thanks HT.

…At least if it’s THIS glove he’s wearing:

while reading this, I came up with two questions.
Since we are running a variation 3-4 and 5-2 Defense because of the strength of our personnel, Do you think we will draft or acquire through FA, personnel that closer fits the 3-4 theme in the future?

Is it too late to trade Marshall and Orton for Carson Palmer? :-)

da Broncos are going down final score Bengals 27 broncos 16 WHO DEY

If they can at least break even here, they’ve got a decent chance. They’ve got enough “gelling” challenges without having to compensate for these. Brandon and Knowshon are not in “game shape” yet, so hopefully they won’t be too exposed.

The season’s finally here! Go Broncs!

I think the key to the game will be turnovers. If we win the turnover battle, we win!

OLine – advantage Denver
DLine – advantage Denver (who woulda thunk it after last year?!)
QB – advantage Cincy
RB – advantage Denver
WR – push
TE – advantage Denver
DB – advantage Denver
ST’s – push
Coaching – advantage Denver
Intangibles – advantage Cincy (stadium + weather)

I am excited to see the real “new-look” Broncos! A lot of attention will be focused on our QB. Believe in the Force (OLine) Kyle! Do Your Job OLine, esp. with some of the new schemes, and avoid downfield penalties.

Our D edges and mid field crossing pattern D will be tested all day. I’m not as convinced that the Bengals have that good a running game considering their new OLine and reliance on Cedric Benson (a Chicago wash-out). I foresee a lot of strongside challenges since that was our greatest weakness in preseason.

Special Teams will be just fine (Hester doesn’t play for the Bengals). It is extremely important for them to win the field position battle.

Broncos Win!

Great pregame post, HT. The D is going to be the key to this game, IMO.

Go Broncos!

You got me fired up for the first week of FOOTBALLL!!! Go Broncos

Benson may have turned it around but for most of his short career he’s been a disappointment. He needs to prove it on the field during the regular season. But fair’s fair. The same can be said for Denver’s run defense and pass rush. Both looked encouraging in preseason but we haven’t done it for real yet. My biggest concern is Cincy’s big three WRs having a big game. We have our own studs but Marshall can’t be as well integrated into our offense as their three receivers are into theirs. And while it might be an artifact of the preseason our running game, too, hasn’t been that impressive. On the other hand I think Cinci’s biggest potential weakness, if we can exploit it, is protecting Palmer. This is a pivotal battle that might well decide the game. I’d feel better if it was taking place at home rather than on the road. I can see why the Bengals are a slight favorite. That’s why I voted “too close to call.” Here’s hoping both teams come out of the game as healthy as they went in. Keep em coming HT. One asset we have that other blog sites don’t is a bevy of knowledgeable and articulate analysts who prove it on “paper” week in and week out.

great stuff!! I especially liked your insight on how you think McD will progress from the 5-2 to 3-4 based on the offensive play-calling of Cincy. It really shows the strategical depth of starting with the 5-2, especially in light of personnel weaknesses from last year.

It puts into perspective how he developed his defensive strategy and Denver’s own limitations (no real DL superstar)…..anyone who thinks this is Nolan’s D is crazy…..of course, saying, “Well hiring Nolan was the only good offseason move Denver did…” will be a perfect source of praise for the media that avoids praising McD, but its missing his contribution…..this D is a product of understanding, on an extremely deep level, those things that defenses that challenged NE did well:

transition fluidly from one strategy to another (with personnel & scheme), hide intentions, use pressure to challenge the QB (Phi, NYG, and Bal (maybe even NYJ) all did these things well in 2007 when the NE O had unlimited options to attack a D

You think Orton’s play will be most important…. I think you may be right, but only if its terrible. The D’s play is gonna be most important…..I expect to see pressure, turnovers, 3 and outs, etc. in a way that blows away the media and pundits. I think it seals the deal on this win too.

Of course, I think we are completely speculating on this stuff. According to job description, I agree with you on Nolan and I would say its Priefer. They are the ones responsible for sure and could be the ones making the majority if not all of the decisions. However, it means McD didn’t take one of the major principles of a Belichickian FB team…..there is one center of gravity and it revolves around the HC. The HC is also the FIRST responsibility for all things on the FB field. Those that think delegation is the key are completely wrong. SUPERVISION is the key. Of course, to supervise you gotta have experience and an idea of what you want. I think McD has very concrete ideas about both. His ideas, in my mind, will demonstrate both strategic depth and coherency and some aspects of his experience in NE. Nolan will be the one running the nuts and bolts, but following McD’s guidance.

I just don’t think this 5 man front is something from Nolan. I’m pretty sure he’s been a pretty static tactician when it comes to his defenses. Now I’m sure there is a lot of collaboration, but the notion that Nolan is running the D on his own is naive.

Couldn’t find the link, but Lombardi had a great mention about Belichick’s relationships with his assistants. Now McD is not Belichick, but I’m sure he is heavily involved in everything as his manner of wandering the practice field demonstrates. He is gonna be giving clear guidance and creating a coherent strategy for both sides of the football to win games. I may need more space and time to explain this though……..good response….thx.