Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations
Happy Tuesday, friends. It's a happy week in Broncoland, hopefully one of many to come this season. There was some good, some bad, some lucky, and some spectacular on Sunday. We'll discuss it all, like we always do, and we won't apologize for winning, because a win is a win. Ready.... BEGIN!!!
1. The Broncos on Sunday reminded me of the Patriots of about 2005, only operating at about 60% of potential. The defensive looks were varied, the tackling and coverage were solid, and the whole was generally greater than the sum of its parts. On offense, there was a lot of commitment to running the ball, some screening, and mostly lower-risk stuff when they did go downfield. The team played like they expected a close game, and did the sorts of things you have to do to win close.
Consider the following:
a. The Broncos committed no turnovers, and forced two. (I personally count the bad snap on the FG, which doesn't technically count, and don't count Scheffler's interception, which does.) I now reiterate my belief that turnovers are the number one determinant of winning and losing.
b. The Broncos committed few penalties, and they were minor ones, the obvious exception being the Casey Wiegmann holding call on the successful 4th-quarter Correll Buckhalter screen.
c. Brett Kern had one notable shank, but mostly punted very well, helping the Broncos in field position. (I now reiterate my belief that field position is the number two determinant of winning and losing.) The return work for the Broncos was very shaky all day, and I would say the Broncos lost the field position battle by a bit. It would have been a lot worse without Kern's solid work, and some good coverage on punts.
d. The clock management methodology at the end of the first half was right out of Bill Belichick's book, and we can expect to see it repeatedly over the coming years. I want to talk about this in some detail, because it's going to become a key part of the character of the Broncos football team.
The unsophisticated observer of football tends to think that a "2-minute drill" calls for clock conservation and a sense of urgency. You know, people like Dan Fouts. It's not that simple, though. You have to consider field position and how many timeouts you have, and do a mental calculation of the probability of your offense scoring, and failing that, the probability of pinning the opposing team deep, and giving them no good shot at scoring, should you have to punt.
The Belichick 2-minute ethos is simple. The number-one objective in a 2-minute situation is to prevent the opposition from scoring. The number-two objective is to score yourself. Deep in your own territory, you make the clock run, almost always by handing off from a spread-out shotgun look. The Patriots have been doing this with Kevin Faulk forever, and I knew that's what the Broncos were doing on first down on Sunday.
Eddie Royal returns the ball to the Denver 17, with 1:48 to go, and 2 timeouts.
DEN 1-10 own 17 yard line 1:48 Handoff to Correll Buckhalter for 7 yards
DEN 2-3 own 24 yard line 1:17 Handoff to Buckhalter for 6 yards
DEN 1-10 own 30 yard line 1:01 Screen pass to Buckhalter for 7 yards
DEN 2-3 own 37 yard line :40 Incomplete deep out to Jabar Gaffney
DEN 3-3 own 37 yard line :34 WR screen to Eddie Royal for 11 yards
Timeout Denver
DEN 1-10 own 48 yard line :26 Deep out to Jabar Gaffney for 21 yards, out-of bounds
DEN 1-10 CIN 31 yard line :20 Incomplete downfield pass to Tony Scheffler (near fumble)
DEN 2-10 CIN 31 yard line :14 Inside handoff to Buckhalter for no gain
Timeout Denver
DEN 3-10 CIN 31 yard line :05 Matt Prater makes 48 yard field goal, Denver leads 3-0 at halftime.
This is very good clock management. The likelihood of driving 83 yards in 1:48 with 2 timeouts, and getting a Touchdown is pretty low, particularly when the offense has struggled all half. The likelihood of getting close enough to try a field goal is much higher.
If you go 3-and-out really quickly on 3 incomplete passes, there is suddenly about 1:35 left, and it's 4th and 10 on your own 17. In 2008, over 2,293 punts in the NFL, the average net outcome was a change in field position of 39.53 yards. Add that to 17, and you just gave the ball to the other team at their own 43, with 1:20 or so to go. They only have to go 20-25 yards to get into field-goal range, which is really manageable. That is why your starting field position matters to your strategy in a compressed-time situation (I don't like the term 2-minute drill. This is the real thing, not a damn drill. It's the old Boatswain's Mate in me). When the Broncos have the ball inside their own 30 or so, expect them to always follow this strategy at the end of the first half.
2. Information from my eyes, from a second pass of the Broncos-Bengals game:
a. The Broncos have a terrific set of CBs. Champ Bailey showed his worth, and Andre' Goodman made one outstanding downfield play, deflecting a ball, and generally had good coverage, even when balls were completed near him. The guy who continued to flash star ability, though, was Alphonso Smith. The Broncos are never going to regret taking this guy.
b. Brett Kern really punted well Sunday, except for one shank. The pass rush bailed him out of that, which I will get into a bit later. For awhile, Kern was the best weapon the Broncos had.
c. Knowshon Moreno ran sideways way too much Sunday. Bobby Turner will certainly be on his back about that, and let's hope the lesson sinks in very quickly.
d. I am not the first person to say this, but I wanted to see more of Peyton Hillis carrying the ball. I wonder if Spencer Larsen's injury caused the staff to shy away from it, since Peyton is really now the only available FB for awhile.
e. Andra Davis had a fantastic game, with 9 tackles, 3 for losses, and 1 sack. He played downhill all day, and thumped some Bengals. That's exactly what we need from him.
f. We need Wesley Woodyard to come in for Davis in coverage situations too, and we got some return on that, with his interception.
g. Wrapping up in the tackling game needs to definitely be better.
3. Information from my eyes, other games' version:
a. The Cardinals really struggled to protect Kurt Warner on Sunday, and it was the main reason they lost to the 49ers. The Niners sacked him 3 times, but hit him a lot of times more than that, 8 according to ESPN.com's box score. The 49ers also struggled in protection, but in key moments, they kept Shaun Hill upright.
b. Warner hasn't looked quite right to me, through the preseason, and into today's game. I haven't figured out what it is yet, but there's something wrong. It's almost like his personal sense of timing isn't there, like it is when he is going well. It will bear watching in the coming weeks, but if he falls off really sharply, the Cardinals will have something to worry about.
c. I really don't like Shaun Hill's skills, but he finds a way to win games. I can see why Mike Singletary likes him, because he is sort of similar to Jim McMahon from a skill-set perspective. I kind of feel bad for Mike, actually, because at no point in his career, as either a player or a coach, has he ever had a big-time QB to work with.
d. Cullen Jenkins is a beast, and he dominated against the Bears on Sunday night. Nobody on the Chicago line could handle him. I've said it before, but his injury almost single-handedly sunk the Packers season last year. When you have a guy like him, you have a really good chance to be stout against the run with 7 in the box, which is what their old Jim Bates-inspired (Bob Sanders-coached) defensive scheme is predicated upon. When they had to stack the box, they couldn't cover well enough anymore, and all of a sudden, they're a 6-10 team.
e. I believed it, and said it on Draft Day, and I believe it even more strongly now. The Packers messed up drafting B.J. Raji, despite the strong likelihood that he'll be a good player. They badly, badly needed help at Offensive Tackle, and they should have either traded up for Eugene Monroe or traded down a bit and taken Michael Oher. Chad Clifton is horrible on the left side, and Allen Barbre, the new RT, looks quite a bit worse than Mark Tauscher, the out-of-work, washed-up guy he replaced. This is a big enough problem to potentially make them struggle to make the playoffs, and it's otherwise a Super Bowl-caliber team.
f. Jay Cutler flat-out choked with that 4th pick. And like on the first three, Cris Collinsworth blamed the receiver. Guys, Cutler doesn't need enabling. That's the lesson from Denver that nobody seems to learn. (He needs to be coached with a foot in his hind parts, actually.) While it is true that the guy (Johnny Knox) needed to shield Al Harris from getting inside him, it was a terrible decision to go there anyway. KC Joyner's bad-decision metric would kill Cutler's game Sunday, because he threw the ball straight to the other team 6 times, with them only catching 4 of them.
g. There were a lot of dropped passes across the NFL this weekend, it wasn't just the Broncos and Bengals. I don't know if receivers were just rusty or what, but it was pretty bad.
h. I loved the call on third-and-one with 1:18 to go in the Packers-Bears game. Aaron Rodgers threw a great ball and hit Greg Jennings for a 51-yard TD pass. Jennings ran a textbook go-route on the play, widening out on Nathan Vasher, and then taking a great line to the catch spot. They exploited the hell out of the whole Bears secondary on that play, and it was an easy pitch and catch.
i. NBC criticism time. Bob Costas doesn't know what the hell he is talking about. (The Colts lost their outstanding receiver Anthony Gonzalez today! Really? Outstanding?) Rodney Harrison can barely get a clean sentence out, and reminds me of Emmitt Smith already, as a TV guy. Tony Dungy is going to get old quick, and the holdovers from the NBC studio still aren't that good either, though I'm glad to be rid of Jerome Bettis. Collinsworth is really hit or miss, but mostly missed Sunday night, and Al Michaels just seems like he doesn't care anymore. Twenty years ago, he was pretty good, but now, he's the worst play-by-play guy in the business. He blows more calls, and misspeaks more often than anybody. It's like a George W. Bush speech with him, every game. It makes me wish Madden 10 was real life, and Tom Hammond was in there instead. Michaels' toupee is atrocious too, but that isn't exactly new news.
j. I got beat up for this a couple weeks ago, but I still think Joe Flacco is better than Matt Ryan, and I want to reiterate it. He can do everything Ryan can do, but he has much more zip on his fastball, and he's significantly more mobile, too. It's kind of reminiscent of the Chris Paul/Deron Williams debate (now, non-debate) in the NBA. Both are really good, but the one who was drafted lower is a bit better.
Flacco was hurt by a lot of drops on Sunday, but he personally looked really good, and was the primary reason Baltimore beat Kansas City. The Chiefs tied the game at 24 with 5:21 to go, and Flacco went and won the game, beating a blitz with a great deep ball to Mark Clayton (who I should have started in the official MHR fantasy league).
k. Tamba Hali continues to look pretty good as a LB in the 3-4 for Kansas City, but Mike Vrabel alternately looked lazy and washed-up on the other side. Big things are allegedly expected from Vrabel this year, but I sure can't tell.
l. My brother Chris (a fellow Broncos fan, and sometimes MHR lurker) was stuck with the Jets-Texans game at home in Los Angeles on Sunday, but he said it was worth watching, so I took in the Short Cut. The Jets defensive front did a job on the Texans O-line, and I asked Chris if it was primarily schematic, or primarily a man beating a man. He said it was some of both, and I agree wholeheartedly, after watching the game. Rex Ryan is definitely still at it, sometimes lining up a three-man line as a 1-technique, 3-technique, and 5-technique, all to one side of the Center, having nothing but LBs on the other side. Nice evaluation, Chris, if you get around to reading this.
Vernon Gholston actually showed some flashes of being able to play, which was surprising, and the Jets clearly have a plan to overload blitz from a lot of fronts. Darrelle Revis did a great job on Andre Johnson, too, really taking Houston's best player out of the game.
m. The second-best defensive rookie I saw this weekend (behind Alphonso Smith) was Brian Cushing of the Texans. He was constantly around the ball, and looked like a better, more downhill-playing Chad Greenway.
n. I continue to be very impressed with Mark Sanchez. He looked poised and talented, which I expected. What I didn't necessarily expect was how well he would bounce back from throwing a TD pass to the other team (for Houston's only points of the game.)
o. So, you remember that thing about your objectives when getting the ball inside 2 minutes of the first half? Here's an example of the wrong way to do it. Tampa Bay started with 2 minutes to play, at their own 14-yard line. They led the game 7-6 at that point.
TB 1-10 own 14 yard line 2:00 WR screen to Michael Clayton, loss of 1 yard
TB 2-11 own 13 yard line 1:21 Byron Leftwich runs out of bounds for a gain of 1 yard, rather than staying in the field of play and gaining a couple additional yards.
TB 3-10 own 14 yard line 1:14 Handoff to Clifton Smith for 4 yards, burning 6 seconds
Dallas Timeout
TB 4-6 own 18 yard line 1:08 Punt out of bounds, Dallas ball, own 44 yard line
DAL 1-10 own 44 yard line 1:01 Tony Romo passes to Jason Witten, 9 yard gain, out-of-bounds at TB 47
DAL 2-1 TB 47 Offsides by (disappointing) Gaines Adams, 5 yard penalty, first down Dallas
DAL 1-10 TB 42 :55 Romo passes to Miles Austin for a 42 yard TD
This is the exact scenario which I described above, that you're trying to avoid.
After Tampa hit on a long pass to Michael Clayton, and Mike Nugent missed his second field goal, Dallas led 13-7 at the half, and went in with all the momentum. In a compressed-time situation, (especially when you lead 7-6), the status quo is okay. Write that down, the status quo is okay. THE STATUS QUO IS OKAY. The dumb play was Leftwich running out of bounds, and it cost the Bucs bigtime.
p. You know who might be the comeback player of the year this year, if he can stay healthy, is Cadillac Williams. He ran with suddenness and violence on Saturday, and looked better than he has since his rookie season.
q. The Patriots offensive line probably makes them not a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Of course, I thought the same thing of the Steelers last year, so take that for what it's worth. It is very, very difficult to be a championship team with a bad offensive line, though, and both of those teams have bad offensive lines.
r. I still think Tennessee is the best all-around team in the AFC. They're really strong on both lines, and their rookie WR, Kenny Britt, is going to open up their running game even further as the season progresses. I picked them at the last minute against Pittsburgh, and though the Steelers won, I feel like I had the game right. The Steelers couldn't block Tennessee, and Tennessee mostly could block Pittsburgh.
s. A rookie CB who was impressive was Derek Cox from the Jaguars. He had a fantastic interception of Peyton Manning in the end zone, on a fade route, and recovered a fumble too. He was hurt by getting beat deep twice by Reggie Wayne, but all in all, I think he's a find at CB, as a 3rd-rounder from William & Mary.
t. The Patriots definitely deserved to lose on Monday night, and there are serious issues with their team. Their offensive line is bad, they lack much talent at RB, and their defense can be thrown on, if they don't get pressure on the QB. They're brilliantly coached, but talent-deficient in some key places. They don't need to apologize for winning, but they do need to remember that they got dominated all game.
u. How about the effort and discipline showed by the Raiders? They came to play football Monday night, and the Chargers mostly looked like they want to sleepwalk through the early part of the season again.
v. Speaking of the Raiders, they must be really happy with the acquisitions of Greg Ellis and Richard Seymour. Those two players really improved their defense, and both got sacks Monday night.
w. Marcus McNeill looked awful against Seymour, and don't underestimate the importance of a long-term Nick Hardwick injury (an assumption, since he left by cart). The Chargers have no quality offensive line depth, not even anybody as good as Russ Hochstein or Seth Olsen.
x. Great coverage by the Raiders, especially Tyvon Branch and Chris Johnson. Branch, especially, did a nice job on Antonio Gates for most of the game. Nnamdi Asomugha was his normal self, even if Vincent Jackson did get a TD on him in the 4th quarter.
y. The Chargers defense is not very good, and the Raiders' suddenly seems like it is. I am positive that the Broncos' defense is better than San Diego's, as I have been saying for a couple weeks now. Shawne Merriman is staying blocked, and they're less talented at DE and ILB than they've been in recent years.
z. You may recall that Louis Murphy was one of my Draft favorites. And, incidentally, he caught a great throw by JaMarcus Russell too, after he struggled for a lot of the game. He is coming along as a player, as I said a couple weeks ago. Russell did struggle with accuracy a lot of the night, but I can see a lot of improvement in his process and decisiveness over this time last year.
aa. Hopefully, Darren Sproles is still having trouble fielding kicks in about 5 weeks. He flubbed three of them Monday night.
4. Between The Lines, Week 1: (Big up bchiper for suggesting the name about a month ago, when I solicited input from the community.)
a. Denver at Cincinnati
Denver Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense:
i. The Broncos offensive tackles were both outstanding, in both pass protection and the running game. Ryan Harris technically gave up a sack, although after 5 seconds and a trip on a shoestring tackle as Ryan rode the player deep and outside; it was totally on Kyle Orton. Antwan Odom got that sack, and another on Russ Hochstein later, and Robert Geathers was a total non-factor in the passing game, mostly against Ryan Clady.
ii. The interior of the Broncos offensive line was much more of a mixed bag. Ben Hamilton was called for holding and a false start, on the key 4th-quarter drive where the Broncos didn't score. He mostly carried out his assignments beyond that, but those lapses are very troubling. Hochstein gave up two sacks, and didn't look good. He really made me miss Chris Kuper. Casey Wiegmann had maybe his worst game as a Bronco, and got pushed backward a few times in the running game. The holding call on the successful Correll Buckhalter screen pass in the 4th quarter was really not much of a hold, but you can't be taking that penalty in that spot.
iii. The interior line for Cincinnati did a much better job than I thought they would, and mostly maintained their gaps in the running game. Hochstein and Wiegmann struggled some with Pat Sims and Domata Peko. I was impressed with their play for the Bengals, and they played a key part in the Broncos running game never really getting going.
iv. Among 20 running plays, I counted 11 zone-blocked plays and 9 man-blocked plays. Buckhalter had good success both ways, and LaMont Jordan had a nice run on a zone play. Peyton Hillis had his only carry behind man-blocking, which I think suits him best, and Knowshon Moreno ran both ways, having more success in man-blocking, which didn't have him running sideways, which was largely his downfall in his underwhelming debut.
v. I would call this battle pretty much a draw, which means the Broncos underachieved. Both sides had some success at times, in a battle that most would have expected the Broncos to win going away. The Broncos have some work to do on the offensive line. Statistically, the Broncos rushed 20 times for 75 yards, 3.8 yard per carry average. Orton was sacked 3 times, and hit 5 more, but really never faced significant pressure from a 4-man rush. Cincinnati really only got there by blitzing.
Cincinnati Offense vs. Denver Defense:
i. The good for Cincinnati: Andrew Whitworth did a pretty nice job at Left Tackle. He showed the ability to be fine there this season. The bad: Anthony Collins had a pretty rough time on the Right side, and looked like a guy who needs to be a backup. Collins never handled Elvis Dumervil well when he rushed from that side, and he got pushed backward a lot in the running game.
ii. As a general statement, the Broncos defensive line did an outstanding job of maintaining the line of scrimmage, and often resetting it a yard behind the blue line on the screen. It was a very encouraging sign against a big offensive line. I was very pleased with the interior performance of both Ronald Fields and Marcus Thomas. They didn't get their names called much, but both played with excellent leverage and physicality.
iii. I felt like the Denver DE/OLBs could have done a much better job in setting the edge in the running game. That is their number-one job, and several times, the interior successfully strung running plays out to the sideline, only to see Cedric Benson get some room out there. They're going to have to get better there.
iv. Of the Broncos' 3 sacks, all came from players who are classified as linebackers. Andra Davis and Mario Haggan both just barely beat Dumervil to the QB. Darrell Reid rushed with his hand down from a DE position on 3rd down, right after Haggan's sack, and beat Collins like he stole something on the play. Those two sacks were really important, incidentally, because both came right after Brett Kern shanked a punt and gave Cincinnati outstanding field position.
v. The Broncos won this battle, no question about it. They wore down a little at the end, but the defensive line was terrific in this game. They allowed 86 yards rushing on 27 carries, with 1 TD. That's a 3.2 yard average, which is very good, especially against a really talented guy like Benson. The pass rush was okay, but can get better. They hit Carson Palmer 4 times, in addition to the 3 sacks, and hurried him several other times.
b. Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Jacksonville Offense vs. Indianapolis Defense:
i. The key matchup featured Dwight Freeney against Eugene Monroe, who was making his NFL debut. Freeney dominated Monroe early in the game, notching a sack, and barely missing another, when David Garrard pulled out of his tackle. Monroe did better as the game went on, and the Jaguars took advantage of Freeney's constant proclivity to rush upfield by running several successful draws to his vacated spot. Monroe did have the key block on Jacksonville's only TD play, impressively hitting Antoine Bethea in space, a la Ryan Clady. On the negative side, Freeney had a neutral-zone infraction in the game, giving Jacksonville a first down.
ii. The Jaguars' other rookie Tackle, second-rounder Eben Britton, also was a mixed bag, mostly against Robert Mathis. He stoned Mathis a few times, got pantsed by him a couple more, but mostly they played close to even. Mathis did have a few impressive plays in the running game as the backside DE, crashing down the line.
iii. I was impressed by the job done by the inside guys for the Jags, including Maurice Williams, Brad Meester, and Vince Manuwai. They opened a lot of holes for Maurice Jones-Drew and anchored very well in the passing game. I only saw one very impressive defensive play by a Colts interior player, and that was a pursuit play by Ed Johnson. I was more impressed with his effort in hustling for 25 yards than anything, really.
iv. The Colts D-line looked the same as ever, with speed from the edges, not much anchoring power, and averageness inside. The Jaguars are much better up front than last season, and I would venture to speculate that they'll be a good offensive line 8-10 weeks from now, when Monroe and Britton have a bit more experience.
v. Statistically, the Jaguars rushed 26 times for 114 yards and 1 TD, a 4.4 yard average. David Garrard was sacked once and hit 6 more times. The numbers tend to support my conclusion that Jacksonville had a slight overall edge in this area.
Indianapolis Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense:
i. Indianapolis' Left Tackle, Charlie Johnson struggled somewhat, mostly against Derrick Harvey. Harvey didn't do a lot in the pass-rushing game, but he made his presence felt in stopping the run. Some were surprised that Johnson ended up as the starter, with Tony Ugoh on the bench, but I was a charter member of the Ugoh-Is-Soft-And-Lousy club a year ago, when the BMIA's of the world were still loving on him. Harvey is improved from his rookie year, but is still a better run player than pass rusher, and probably always will be. He's just not a fast-twitch guy, and smartly tries to play with power rather than quickness.
ii. I've never been the biggest Jeff Saturday fan, and Sunday's game was a good example of the reasons why. He really, really struggles when you ask him to anchor against a power player in pass protection or move a defensive lineman vertically in the running game. This has always been the case to some degree, but he's declined somewhat since his best years, from the looks of things. Saturday's strength is getting out to the second level and hitting pursuers. His quickness is an asset there, and his lack of power is minimized as a liability. He did look good several times in that tasking. I don't think he's a good Center anymore, overall, though - he's more like an average one.
iii. John Henderson had kind of an underwhelming game for the Jags from a playmaking perspective, but he generally was stout inside in the running game. He spent a good amount of time pushing Mike Pollak and Saturday backwards in the running game. Really, the Colts' whole O-line spent a lot of their day a step into their own backfield.
iv. Jacksonville's pass rush was marginal, and they got only one sack, from Reggie Hayward, who subsequently broke his shin and went down for the season. Ryan Lilja got beat for the sack, but the blocking scheme put him in a tough spot, coming from the inside to block an outside rusher.
v. The numbers tell two stories. The Jags were stout against the run, allowing 71 yards on 31 carries, a 2.3 yard average, with 1 TD. Peyton Manning had his way in the passing game though, taking one sack, and only getting hit two additional times. Give the slight edge to the Colts for volume, and if you're the Jaguars, you know you've now gone two offseasons needing pass rush help, and not satisfied the need.
5. The following is the schedule for the regular season for the Between The Lines feature.
|
Week |
|
|
1 |
Jacksonville at Indianapolis |
|
1 |
Denver at Cincinnati |
|
2 |
Houston at Tennessee |
|
2 |
Cleveland at Denver |
|
3 |
Green Bay at St. Louis |
|
3 |
Denver at Oakland |
|
4 |
New York Jets at New Orleans |
|
4 |
Dallas at Denver |
|
5 |
Atlanta at San Francisco |
|
5 |
New England at Denver |
|
6 |
Baltimore at Minnesota |
|
6 |
Denver at San Diego |
|
7 |
Arizona at New York Giants |
|
8 |
Denver at Baltimore |
|
8 |
Cleveland at Chicago |
|
9 |
Green Bay at Tampa Bay |
|
9 |
Pittsburgh at Denver |
|
10 |
Chicago at San Francisco |
|
10 |
Denver at Washington |
|
11 |
Miami at Carolina |
|
11 |
San Diego at Denver |
|
12 |
New York Giants at Denver |
|
12 |
Pittsburgh at Baltimore |
|
13 |
Houston at Jacksonville |
|
13 |
Denver at Kansas City |
|
14 |
Green Bay at Chicago |
|
14 |
Denver at Indianapolis |
|
14 |
Philadelphia at New York Giants |
|
15 |
New England at Buffalo |
|
15 |
Oakland at Denver |
|
16 |
Seattle at Green Bay |
|
16 |
Denver at Philadelphia |
|
17 |
Chicago at Detroit |
|
17 |
Kansas City at Denver |
All 32 teams will be evaluated at least once. I'll evaluate the Broncos 17 times, obviously, and the next most frequent subjects will be Chicago and Green Bay with 4 appearances, Baltimore and the Giants with 3, and Cleveland, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Kansas City, New England, Oakland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, San Diego and San Francisco twice each. All other teams will appear once.
6. My apologies for the lack of Lighting Up The Scoreboard Friday. I was having software problems on the recording from the Madden end, and I don't even know if it will work this week, when i try again. I will at least shoot to have an audio podcast this week, even if I can't get the Madden content in there.
7. Retired for John Elway.
8. Man-cavery:
I have been fighting the urge to spend $1,000 on another living-room TV, and I have managed to keep that beast at bay, for now at least. I brought the TV on the right (a 32" job), in from my bedroom for gameday, and I think I will continue to do so for awhile. I had the Red Zone channel on the bigger laptop, the main game I wanted to see on the bigger TV, and another interesting game on the smaller, moved-in TV. I was keeping notes on the smaller laptop, on the couch. My only problem was changing channels, because the remote wanted to change the channels on both DirecTV receivers, when I only wanted one to move. Does anybody know any solutions to that?
That's all I have after taking up a lot of your time. Have a great week, and let's hope I can get my software issues worked out this week. It's Browns week, which means a lot of grief for me from the locals here in Cleveland, but it's the kind of grief I am happy to absorb if the Broncos win. In any case, we'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations.
31 recs |
123 comments
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Comments
Great reading as always, Ted
Loved your analysis of the 2-minute drill at the end of the first half. Thanks for all the work it takes to put these together.
"I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today" -- Wimpy J. Wellington
by Broncs Cheer on Sep 15, 2009 7:22 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
2-minute drill
Incredibly detailed and well-presented article Ted. Thanks as always!
I am not sure about the 2-minute drill analysis though given the circumstances at the end of the 1st half in the Cincy game. I was upset at the handoff to Buckhalter with 14 secs left. If Cincy had let him run and stopped him from scoring then the team would have had no time left for the field goal and been left with no score. I preferred a pass play.
by Endzone on Sep 15, 2009 9:58 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Ted
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for to many men on the field?" - Jim Bouton
by diviesti on Sep 15, 2009 7:28 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Excellent analysis.
This team has a long way to go, but the signs are encouraging. I concur wholeheartedly with your comments on turnover margin and field position (both of which were dramatically improved). The reason I am still not sold on this team is that I consider a third element to be as important as these two: scoring efficiency. It can be measured several different ways (the MSM is too fixated on Red Zone Percentage) but the point is that moving the ball is not enough. To be successful, you must score points, and the elite offenses do that at a higher rate per drive or per yard than the rest of the pack. This is where we have yet to demonstrate that we have improved over last year.
by db8632 on Sep 15, 2009 7:36 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Predictive/Causative, or just Correlative?
My one concern about “scoring efficiency” is that it seems like a correlative variable, not a repeatable “skill” that can be predictive of future performance. For this, I’m assuming you mean something like “yards needed per point”, etc.
In any given year, my guess is luck/randomness/etc. will make that stat fluctuate… in the years it fluctuates to the good side, they will score lots of points, win games, and folks will say “see, scoring efficiency is really important”…. except the next year, the balls bounce the other direction, and folks say “oh, they really messed up by not doing X, and their scoring efficiency dropped”… but that in itself is/was in no way predictive of what will happen the NEXT year. It doesn’t tell you anything we didn’t already know, as good offenses tend to score more, AND gain more yards…
I think if anything, “scoring efficiency” is more a symptom of special teams and defense… teams winning the field position battle will score more points with less yards for an equal offense.
Basically, I’ve just never seen anything that makes me believe that stat tells us anything about an offense beyond what we already get from points, yards, and other more advanced stats like “success rate” and efficiency ratings you can from folks like FootballOutsiders, KC Joyner, etc.
by cjfarls on Sep 15, 2009 11:10 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Great post
I have tried to make the same point quite a few times but far less efficiently.
by rururuland784 on Sep 16, 2009 4:57 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
We need a definition
If the term “scoring efficiency” is defined as “yards per point” then I agree: it leaves something to be desired. It might be a decent rough look at a team (since, as you said, it is really just a combination of other, better stats), but you can’t really base conclusions off it alone.
However, there is another way you could define scoring efficiency, and it was something that Styg was looking into last year: points left behind. Again, this is another stat that combines facets of other stats, but it does remove some of the defense and special teams influences: whether you started in field goal range or you drove down the field, did you you come away with points when the opportunity was there.
Or maybe it’s just better to stick with field position, TOs, time of posession, and 3rd down efficiency. Pretty straight-forward stats.
"Don't feed the trolls. Remember to be polite. And please show self-restraint in comment length!" -Me, to myself, because I need constant reminding.
by Disco_Stu on Sep 16, 2009 2:35 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never lay up
The 2 minute strategy McD is using is the same as laying up in golf. It might not be a bad strategy for a close, defensive game like this one, but for a shootout it’s “nothing ventured, nothing gained.” I would have prefered an early timeout, especially after the first 1st down, and then to kill the clock with spikes later on if time was an issue.
I also find it odd that in the 4th quarter, when the “lay up” propositiion was to run the ball on 3rd and long and kick a field goal, (I think there was about 5 minutes left in the game and Denver was up by 6), McDaniels chose not to be conservative and called a pass play. Much criticism has been leveled at Orton for taking a sack on that play, but the call was bad, the protection was bad, and the receivers did not recognize the blitz. Where was Orton’s out man?
Some rise by sin, others by virtue fall. - Shakespeare "Measure for Measure"
by BuddyHollysPilot on Sep 15, 2009 7:39 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
4th Qtr Drive
I agree that if McDaniels was so concerned about losing field position due to a sack (and so critical of Orton as a result) he should have either called a run or called a pass play with a more robust protection package. Orton really had very little time to get rid of the ball in a way that would not be intentional grounding.
Keep Moving Forward.
by ColoradoOwl on Sep 15, 2009 11:35 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I considered the stratagy to be very poor in the first half...
Laying up gets you par. Laying down & running the clock get’s you a low percentage chance of any scoring and almost zero chance of a TD. Clearly McD had zero faith in his offense.
In the fourth quarter I didn’t mind the pass call as it would have been a long field goal but I agree that Orton had little opportunity to get rid of the ball. Was the pass rush really that good or could we have run a play with better protection or even a roll out to give him a sure fire chance of being able to bail on the play?
As far as Orton’s performance… we’d be calling it pretty good I think, if our receivers would have caught just a few more of the balls they should have. I still see him as a one year stop gap QB.
As far as our defense which I loved… I’m thinking we’d have all loved it considerably less if Cinci’s Wr’s would’ve caught a few more balls which THEY should have caught…
On Cutler. Dead on the coaching style needed for that fellow. I still wish we had him, I’m sure he’ll straighten up but… How about his post game comments? Yikes. Even if half (maybe) of his errors were WR related… He needed to get up there and cop to playing like garbage and taking dumb chances in a close game! Foot in ass? Absolutely.
Great article Ted, thanks for putting in the work. How the hell do you find the time?
by Whidbey Bronco on Sep 15, 2009 6:44 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice read, Ted - thank you!
I’ll have to digest the ‘Lines’ later, but thanks for the explanation of the ‘compressed time’ offense and clock management. I was a little frustrated by the seemingly lackadaisical offense at the end of the 1st half, but was of course pleased (and admittedly surprised) when we advanced enough for the score. It’s certainly a different approach than driving the ball downfield with higher-risk passes; but we didn’t execute those particularly well the last several years either. So, thanks for giving me another perspective on it.
My take on Kern was not that positive. I don’t have the numbers at hand, and will defer to your experience and closer look. My feeling at the time was that Kern’s early punts were relatively poor, but that the coverage was good (kickoff coverage was noteably good too, btw). We were always in the hole, and the one big kick he got off outpaced the coverage, and the net was about the same. Again, that’s just my perception, but I felt we were always fighting uphill in the first half, and feared that field position would cost us the game there. Big kudos to the D for shutting down Palmer and his big WRs!
by MakeCents on Sep 15, 2009 7:48 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Ted. Kern had a good game other than the shank. Did Cincy have any big returns? Nope. Some of that has to do with the punter, as well as the coverage guys. Just like in preseason, our coverage has been good and our return game has been bad.
And we should not have had to punt as much as we did. If Prater can use a tired leg excuse, why can’t the punter?
Colquitt was a nice prospect, but it’s time to move on. Did anyone else even sign Colquitt?
Love the Broncos, don't like their Coach.
by McGeorge on Sep 15, 2009 8:21 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m really disappointed in the return game, too. But the lock-down coverage teams are so exciting they almost make up for it. For years, I just assumed that one of the staple components of Broncos football was allowing the other team to start at mid-field every third drive.
by Chibronx on Sep 15, 2009 8:29 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Certainly
I don’t deny the symbiosis between punter and coverage, though we can agree that a 30-yard punt with decent hang time is still only a 30-yard punt, even if it’s well covered. I’m not characterizing Kern’s punts as all 30-yarders, and I don’t have the figures. I think I was plain that it was my perception he wasn’t really hitting them consistently well. In a close game like that, one shank can lose it.
Look, I’m not pining for Colquitt; Kern beat him and a decent prospect in Paulescu last year (and convinced two different coaches, to boot). As for a tired leg, he got stronger as the game wore on. Perhaps it was just nerves, and he will come on strong this year. Best thing, of course, is not to use him so much!
by MakeCents on Sep 15, 2009 12:36 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
What happened on Cincy's TD drive? ...and DirecTV remote solution.
Great job as usual Ted!
One question: What happened on Cincy’s TD drive? Did the Broncos switch to a prevent defense? It looked like they reverted to a standard and relatively ineffective 4-man rush. Any analysis?
On controlling two DirecTV receivers in the same room: Leave the remote for one DVR set to InfraRed (IR, the default). Set the other remote and DVR to Radio Frequency (RF). The channels will change independently. (You may need to buy a new $25 RF-compatible remote from DTV.)
by Wilde1 on Sep 15, 2009 7:49 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
We only rushed three or four guys most of the drive and Palmer picked us apart with ample time in the pocket.
Palmer is a very good QB from time to time and that last drive… well, he was on.
Love the Broncos, don't like their Coach.
by McGeorge on Sep 15, 2009 8:17 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree with McGeorge
Cincy spread the field and we were in a zone with a more limited rush most of the time. I always wonder why teams go away from what was working in situations like this.
Keep Moving Forward.
by ColoradoOwl on Sep 15, 2009 11:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree McGeorge....to a point.
Palmer had time to pick apart, but he was picking from very few receivers to begin with. In that scoring drive, he got a lot of good things done, but not once did he get a deep ball off all day. Considering the nature of that game, knowing their best shot at scoring would be on the ground, I think we did a good job at stopping that as well as keeping the deep ball out of his game plan. No doubt that the short passes up the middle need to be stopped better, but for their first full 60 minute game, I think the starters did a pretty decent job.
One other thing that I noticed and loved was that aside from that scoring drive from Cincy, our defense seemed to get better as the day went on, not worse. That’s a welcome change from years past.
"FLAG! Fail on the field. Re-do." -Disco_Stu
by Joe Medina on Sep 16, 2009 12:40 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah I forgot that bit...
wrong defense vs Palmer and his WR’s!!
by Whidbey Bronco on Sep 15, 2009 6:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the analysis
These things are what I love about this site
by HurdanMori on Sep 15, 2009 7:50 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
wow ted
That is an awesome setup in your living room jealous
The power rankings on yahoo put us at 27th, which i guess is warranted cause our preseason ranking was like 31st or something. but how long do you think it’ll take for us to get some of that respect dawkins was talking about before the game?
by march20 on Sep 15, 2009 7:55 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Prisco put us at 17 on his
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for to many men on the field?" - Jim Bouton
by diviesti on Sep 15, 2009 10:56 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Personally, I’m fine with low power rankings. Flying under the radar would be fine for the rest of the season and a pleasant change in terms of the recent attention the team has received. MSM power rankings higher may give us a sense of pride, but that’s about it.
Those lists are so silly. Eventually it will look the same as a list of the team with the most wins. And still wild card teams or the Cardinals make the Super Bowl.
We should realize that every team is full of professionals, and most teams win 8 games give or take 2. That means every team loses. From here on out, we deal with team preparation, injuries, adjustments, and (un)lucky breaks.
by dr.mort on Sep 15, 2009 12:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Power rankings? Are we trying to get a bid to the Cotton Bowl or maybe we settle on the Alamo Bowl.
Does respect = high power ranking. IMO, power rankings are fun to read and a complete waste of time.
Love the Broncos, don't like their Coach.
by McGeorge on Sep 15, 2009 1:50 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome. Post.
Wow, lots to digest, Ted. I might have to come back later and hit it again. Some thoughts:
1. One thing about Andra Davis came to mind this morning, but I didn’t see mentioned elsewhere. He was back in his old divisional stomping grounds, beating up on an old enemy. It would be like Al Wilson coming back to play the raiders, I’d imagine. Not to take away from anything he did in the game, but I wonder if it was part of why he did well. I’m hoping he keeps it up!
2. Maybe Costas got Anthony Gonzales confused with Tony Gonzalez? :)
3. Great teaching point on how not to run the 2-minute offense in TB. I like that it came up in the same week.
4. You’re the second person to say that Marcus Thomas played well. That warms my heart a bit. I’ve been pulling for him for his entire career. I want to see him finally live up to the potential.
by BroncosBassist on Sep 15, 2009 8:00 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I showed my wife your man cave picture...
and she stated she was glad she wasn’t married to you.
I, however, was impressed.
by margabelle on Sep 15, 2009 8:07 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Marcus Thomas
I listened to the Bengals’ broadcast on XM radio while driving back from vacation.The only lineman those oafs mentioned was McBean, whom they called “Bean.”
Thanks as always, TB. I’ve been worried about the interior OL for years. The loss of Kuper was clearly important, but I also fear they can’t rely on Hamilton or Wiegmann for long.
by Chibronx on Sep 15, 2009 8:09 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Meant to ask.... how much did Thomas play?
by Chibronx on Sep 15, 2009 8:10 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
A lot. He had a very good game. Marcus Thomas got into the backfield often and was active all game. I was impressed.
Love the Broncos, don't like their Coach.
by McGeorge on Sep 15, 2009 8:14 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
He didn’t just anchor, he got into the backfield? That. Is. Awesome.
by Chibronx on Sep 15, 2009 8:23 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The new D-line coach taught our guys how to slap the O-linemen’s arms away right off the snap. It’s helping us get better interior penetration than in years past. Watch our D-line vs Cleveland. There are all using a swim move constantly and it seems to be working rather well. Thomas took to the new coaching by Nulley.
Love the Broncos, don't like their Coach.
by McGeorge on Sep 15, 2009 8:29 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
One day...
maybe we’ll have Thomas and Baker on the same line — with Pedescleaux.
Beasts, all.
by JeffG on Sep 15, 2009 8:47 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very good point, McG
In all the other things that drew folks attention this offseason, the signing of Wayne Nunnely by the Broncos was under-reported and under-appreciated. This guy is the Bobby Turner of the defensive lines and we’re lucky to have him. As I was watching the Chargers/raiders game last night, I thought at one point how poor the Chargers D line looked, even compared to last season. While they have some injuries, the overall play looked lifeless. Ron Rivera, the chargers DC, brought in a couple of his friends from his time in Chicago. Steve Wilks is a good coach in the secondary, but the line coach, Don Johnson, is a 4-3 guy and the line looked off. The Chargers also tried to run some 4-3 fronts in preseason and they’re not built for that to work for them.
Ted – thanks, again. This is always on my have-to-read list for the week and no a column goes by that I don’t learn something about the game. Since that was the first thing that drew me to the site, it’s appreciated more than you know. Great job!
Hillis/Moreno in '09
by Emmett Smith on Sep 15, 2009 10:43 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh yeah, thanks for pointing that out
I hadn’t factored in Nunnely!
by Whidbey Bronco on Sep 15, 2009 6:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
SO GLAD
we have Nunnelly. He and Nolan were two excellent excellent hires!
Conversation nonstarters: hoping McDaniels fails, comparing Bears to Broncos, Cutler to Orton, apples to oranges, and casual drinkers to Raiders fans.
by broncosmontana on Sep 15, 2009 1:38 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
great spot, McG! I hadn't picked up on that.
"When a new coach comes in and expects hard work, a team attitude and personal accountability over a personal thirst for glory, I won’t fault him for the reactions of a few selfish individual." ~Hunter Ansley, InDenverTimes.com
by Colorado_Kitten on Sep 15, 2009 8:17 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Our Head coach sure knows how to build a staff!
Now if he only new how to build an offense or pick a QB ;-)
I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. Coach Norman Dale "Hoosiers"
by dmitchell624 on Sep 15, 2009 8:35 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Might be looking at a high-round Center pick next year
Wonder who’s available…
by BroncosBassist on Sep 15, 2009 8:10 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Olsen is inline to replace Hamilton in 2010.
Hamilton may be in line to replace Weigman at that same time.
Love the Broncos, don't like their Coach.
by McGeorge on Sep 15, 2009 8:16 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I forget Hamilton’s cap number for next year, but I think it’s high. He’s had enough lapses of late that it’s hard for me to see him getting moved to a new position. I think the more likely result is that he’s cut. I’d guess they start Olsen in Hamilton’s place next year and draft their 2011 center early on.
by Chibronx on Sep 15, 2009 8:27 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ben’s cap number is high and we need to resign Kuper so you may be right about Ben getting cut. It’s really too bad neither of our past two draft picks at Center worked out.
Love the Broncos, don't like their Coach.
by McGeorge on Sep 15, 2009 8:31 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
We've been drafting Center prospects for years
The only one who’s worked so far has been Hamilton, amusingly enough. We been terrificly lucky that we haven’t needed a young center yet- because Nalen played so well for so long, and right when he finally had to hang up the cleats, we got Weigman.
by jack_ on Sep 15, 2009 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hamilton is a free agent after this season
by Douglas A. Lee on Sep 15, 2009 8:32 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tx. Now I remember — I thought he would be a cap casualty this year.
by Chibronx on Sep 15, 2009 8:34 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Me too.
Don’t think Ben will be back in 2010 unless he takes a pay cut to say.
Love the Broncos, don't like their Coach.
by McGeorge on Sep 15, 2009 9:16 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It took me like an hour and a half to read this. And it was time well spent.
You need to vacuum.
Funny line about Anthony Gonzales. Very true. What has he ever done in the NFL?
My take on San Diego is that they used to have the best NT in the NFL. J Williams was the anchor of their outstanding run D for nearly a decade, but he is old now and really slowing down. He’s still decent, but far from his former dominating self. Without a top notch NT, it exposes Castillo and the other DE for the average players they are and it puts a lot more pressure on their LBs, which are better at pass rush than run defense. Ligaments Out looks like his steroid induced injury did a number on his confidence.
Cromartie is vastly overrated, but Jammer is equally underrated. Weddle is a mixed bag and Hart is god awful. Their nickel CB Cason is solid. It’s a decent D, but Dolt fans cannot accept or realize that J Williams was the key to their former excellence and he is definitely on the back nine of his career, maybe nearing hole 18.
LTD, also not the player he once was. Far from it actually. The Dolts are a 10-6 team and early AFC playoff fodder, especially if Hardwick is out for a while.
If it’s not somewhat obvious, I HATE San Diego.
Love the Broncos, don't like their Coach.
by McGeorge on Sep 15, 2009 8:13 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
based on their o-line play and that they may have two starters out — 10-6 looks generous to me
A truth can only be expressed and enveloped in words if it is one-sided. Everything that is thought and expressed in words is one-sided, only half the truth; it all lacks totality, completeness, unity.
by Todd Jewell on Sep 15, 2009 8:18 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope I was overly generous. Their schedule is the same as our minus with the exception of two games.
We play in Indy and the Dolts play in Tennessee (advantage Denver)
We play at home to the Pats and they play at home vs Miami (advantage Dolts)
As much as I HATE Rivers, he is one of the best QBs in the NFL. Teams with great QBs are never terrible.
Love the Broncos, don't like their Coach.
by McGeorge on Sep 15, 2009 8:25 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
I can’t stand the Dolts, and feel that they are a vastly overrated team. They could very easily finish 5-11, but Rivers is a good enough QB to get them three or four wins. Monday was not a very good game for him, he made some really poor decisions on bootlegs that killed a couple of drives. Rivers is an example of a QB who makes his receivers better. Vincent Jackson (while I love him for his UNC connection) is not a great receiver. Chambers, and Enenenene (I don’t remember his name) are not conficance inspiring WR. The SuperDolts are on the backside of mediocrity and are heading to the basement within the next three years. KC and Denver will be fighting it out for the next few years, if Denver gets a better QB and KC can find an O line. The Faders scared me a little bit. I saw fight in them for the first time in a while. I don’t think they are a good team talent wise, but I do think they are going to play hard and keep the game close.
by D-fence on Sep 16, 2009 12:23 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!
by Trinidad Jack on Sep 16, 2009 10:26 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ladianian Tomlinson looks average at best to me. Good news!
Someone needs to break Sproles hand so he can’t field kicks!
"Kool-Aid Kool Aid, Tastes Great, We Want Kool Aid, Can't Wait"
by littletinybroncos on Sep 15, 2009 8:41 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The way Sproles was fielding kicks
last night you’d think he did break a hand. He was a mixed bag as well last night, but he was on when he needed to be at the end.
by bchiper on Sep 15, 2009 9:25 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget, they also lost Wayne Nunnely
Big advantage for Broncos!
by Bronkfan on Sep 15, 2009 8:51 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Williams
He had two more surgeries in the offseason and he’s going to be 35 when his contract is up next year. They brought on the Canadian guy, Vaughn Martin, in hopes that he can learn the NFL game quickly enough to take over from Williams next season. so far he’s struggled – he hasn’t played against NFL caliber opposition and like anyone, he’s a bit shell-shocked so far.
I didn’t expect SD to look like a SB contender, but I was shocked at how badly they played on both lines. They did pull out a win, but they didn’t look anything like the team that won out last season. Another sleep-walking start? They need to get the team alarm clocks.
Hillis/Moreno in '09
by Emmett Smith on Sep 15, 2009 10:47 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
In addition to OL and DL issues
I think Oakland’s resurgence took SD by surprise — it did me, anyway. Seymour had a much bigger impact than I expected.
SD also has big question marks at RB (they waived Gartrell, btw) and DB (Hart just isn’t what he used to be, and Cromartie is inconsistent). Rivers and their WRs make them dangerous, and I think SD remains one of the best in the AFC when they’re firing on all cylinders, but AJ’s drafts aren’t what they once were and SD is slipping a bit.
by CoastalBronco on Sep 15, 2009 10:57 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was surprised when they cut Johnson
Although he struggled in the first couple of preseason games, he looked excellent during the 4th. I had it down to a choice between him and Bennett during final cutdowns and I was surprised when they kept both. Cutting him shortly after also caught me by surprised, but I’m sure that AJ feels that he has his reasons. After seeing Tomlinson yesterday, who looked like he’s lost a step, I was happy for the Broncos that they didn’t keep Johnson. He was a compensatory pick, but as a 4th round selection I thought that they’d work with him a little more.
Hillis/Moreno in '09
by Emmett Smith on Sep 15, 2009 11:15 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Their loss, IMO
Giants gain…and our since he’s now not something we have to worry about. And now I can cheer for him!
"When a new coach comes in and expects hard work, a team attitude and personal accountability over a personal thirst for glory, I won’t fault him for the reactions of a few selfish individual." ~Hunter Ansley, InDenverTimes.com
by Colorado_Kitten on Sep 15, 2009 8:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jamal Williams
I agree… he really was the heart of that defense, and from what I saw, the Raiders’ center was pushing the NT of the SD backward without help pretty much every play the first half… thats a sure-fire way to lose playing a 3-4 Defense if your center is not demanding a double-team, because on each of those plays I watched at least one guard immediately go to the second level and blow up a LB.
by cjfarls on Sep 15, 2009 11:21 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
You need to vacuum
I was so close to having some tea in my mouth when I read that….so glad I didn’t. lol!
"Don't feed the trolls. Remember to be polite. And please show self-restraint in comment length!" -Me, to myself, because I need constant reminding.
by Disco_Stu on Sep 15, 2009 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
what happened to Cromartie, he was really good two years ago...
what ever it was I like it
by Whidbey Bronco on Sep 15, 2009 6:50 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
10-6?
We may catch them this year after all but i say they are 8-8 or 9-7 and Norv waves bye bye
I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. Coach Norman Dale "Hoosiers"
by dmitchell624 on Sep 15, 2009 8:38 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks TB
Its funny how much impact one play can have on the resulting analysis of a game. This is the only fair one I’ve found. Everybody else is talking about Denver’s miraculous good fortune, when in fact they deserved this win. The reality is, after Buckhalter converts that 1st down— sans the penalty— Denver salts the game away with at least a field goal and probably shuts the Bengals out. If you look at the box score, other than TOP, Denver is either roughly even or better in every key category. I blame the TOP on a still disjointed and emerging offense. I can’t wait to see these guys when they get in a rhythm.
Can I get a shout out for that Defense that McX so incompetently and maliciously ignored?
Woohooo— Alphonso Smith (I’m going to ride the A.S. pony into the ground…as a matter of principle.)
by PredominantlyOrange on Sep 15, 2009 8:46 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Indeed
I do think they deserved it as well. Game seemed pretty even but Denver just managed it better, imo. The penalties at the end where what killed us. That last drive for Cincy you could see all the momentum with them and even though people didn’t like the zone defense at the beginning when they blitzed Ocho ate them up.
Tis better not to throw it to the deep receiver but the open receiver.
by Kfustud on Sep 15, 2009 8:54 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is there room for me on that pony?
Loved the Smith pick from the beginning. He’s going to be good.
by BroncosBassist on Sep 15, 2009 11:13 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Elway and the Man Cave
TB you ended with:
7. Retired for John Elway.
8. Man-cavery:
That really hit home for me last weekend. I had a vendor booth for my company at the Good Times Expo this weekend held at the Merchandise Mart. A show for mens luxury items. Worse show I have done as far as customers but by far the most entertaining. They had the Coors Light Girls, Playboy Girls, Bronco Cheerleaders and a booth that gave haircuts and massages by sexy girls in little skimpy outfits. Vito from the Sopranos was selling cigars. AND John Elway was in the MAN CAVE for 2 hours on Saturday. I was given a free pass to the man cave and got to hang out with John Elway and about 30 or 40 of his new best friends. The best was sitting around the poker table and playing black jack with Elway as the dealer. Very Cool!!
by Bronkfan on Sep 15, 2009 9:08 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
sounds like a great time, BF!
Not sure my wife would have approved, but damn — blackjack with Elway!
Conversation nonstarters: hoping McDaniels fails, comparing Bears to Broncos, Cutler to Orton, apples to oranges, and casual drinkers to Raiders fans.
by broncosmontana on Sep 15, 2009 1:37 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
As always
another great ST&NO Ted. Thanks for the shout out as well.
Thought the offense looked completely out of sync for most of the game, but did show some flashes was what is to come. Overall the D looked solid and ready to play. Loved the intensity they showed.
As I was watching the game I heard the play by play guys continually talk about the small Denver defensive line. Now I know we beefed up there, but,are we still smaller than other D lines in the league? Or did the guys in the booth just ignor that this isn’t last years line?
by bchiper on Sep 15, 2009 9:19 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
They didn't do their homework.
We got the Z-list crew. I think during bye weeks those guys call curling and 3rd rate quarter horse circuits.
by PredominantlyOrange on Sep 15, 2009 9:37 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
They were looking at our front 3 only.
As far as the MSM are concerned, we’re playing a 3-4, and as front 3’s go on 3-4 teams, we’re on the smaller side. Since we’re actually playing more of a 5-2/3-4 hybrid, you have to look at the front 5, and there we’re plenty big enough.
by db8632 on Sep 15, 2009 11:39 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome.
Thanks for the hard work and great read Ted. Love Between the Lines!
by NedBronco on Sep 15, 2009 9:59 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
what NB said, twice. Thanks, TB
by CoastalBronco on Sep 15, 2009 10:01 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
IMO that holding call on Wiegmann was complete BS,
just TERRIBLE. That drive was the difference between locking up the game and a potential loss.
I’m very proud of how the defense played. I know games like that are not extremely exciting to watch, but it was refreshing to see the Broncos play fundamentally sound hard-nose defense. The improvement year over year cannot be understated (yes, I realize it was only one game – we were just that bad last year). I think McBean is on the hot seat, Marcus Thomas is breathing down his neck and LeKevin would be as well if he were healthy.
I was disappointed with Knowshon and hopefully he will show us why he is was the #12 pick in the draft. Overall we need to get better this week and hopefully get in a rhythm in the running game.
Gread job TB – rec’d for the article and the mancave.
by DBronx777 on Sep 15, 2009 10:04 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
ref'ing in general is suspect
I saw many questionable calls over the past couple of days. It does seem like they’re picking on on Denver’s blocking, though (in preseason, as well). KnoMo’s shoulder pads in a rushers waist being flagged as a chop block also disturbed me.
by CoastalBronco on Sep 15, 2009 10:43 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It will be interesting to see
if Mike Pereira talks to Rich Eisen about that call today. I thought he was a little high myself.
(No allusion to Travis Henry intended.)
Conversation nonstarters: hoping McDaniels fails, comparing Bears to Broncos, Cutler to Orton, apples to oranges, and casual drinkers to Raiders fans.
by broncosmontana on Sep 15, 2009 2:19 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree. I've been wondering for time
if the league has been telling it’s officials teams to keep a real close eye on Denver for chop blocks. It seems that Denver gets more than it share of that kind of call and many of the last several calls have seemed a little suspect. Or is it just me? Is it possible the Broncos really do chop block more often than other teams?
If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!
by Trinidad Jack on Sep 15, 2009 3:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's just utter jealousy
of our world famous trademark unstoppable running game.

Just ask Elmo.
Conversation nonstarters: hoping McDaniels fails, comparing Bears to Broncos, Cutler to Orton, apples to oranges, and casual drinkers to Raiders fans.
by broncosmontana on Sep 15, 2009 3:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bad Ref
The Faders got robbed in their game. They had a touchdown and the refs took it away.
by Endzone on Sep 15, 2009 3:31 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed. I couldn't believe they actually turned that touchdown over!
No evidence at all from any angle that he didn’t have control. That was bogus.
"When a new coach comes in and expects hard work, a team attitude and personal accountability over a personal thirst for glory, I won’t fault him for the reactions of a few selfish individual." ~Hunter Ansley, InDenverTimes.com
by Colorado_Kitten on Sep 15, 2009 8:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
This one drove me nuts
The Defensive player met 2 Broncos at the same time, one high, one low. There is NO WAY a player should pause for a second because the other player MIGHT be engaged by a teammate in the next instant.
That was a very poor call.
by Arimaris on Sep 15, 2009 4:44 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice Post as always!
But what’s up with the lamp??
by bodieiscool on Sep 15, 2009 10:11 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
lol
"When a new coach comes in and expects hard work, a team attitude and personal accountability over a personal thirst for glory, I won’t fault him for the reactions of a few selfish individual." ~Hunter Ansley, InDenverTimes.com
by Colorado_Kitten on Sep 15, 2009 2:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stellar writing as always, Ted
I just emailed a whole bunch of my non-Broncos fan friends and implored them to read this column. It’s peerless in the world of MMQB writeups.
by Douglas A. Lee on Sep 15, 2009 10:24 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Just mentioned the Ellis/Seymour duo in another thread...
They have seriously improved the fader D.
I also noticed ALOT of dropped balls this weekend. I have a man cave simliar to yours, and was watching a plethora of games at all times. Moss, Welker and Gates were victims of the dropsies as well last night…that’s odd.
Hopefully it’s just a matter of getting comfortable with game speed.
Thanks for the great analysis!
A proud prognostication of 10-6 in 2009!!!
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams
by Broncotodd on Sep 15, 2009 10:52 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I think all the drops in the Broncos game was a result of the sun. Several times I noticed Weigman, Coles, Orton and others squinting. Both teams were dropping passes. BM dropped two (it looked like he didn’t see the bomb because he didn’t really react), Stokely had a easy drop, Hillis had an easy drop and Scheff had a drop.
Coles had several drops, and the Bangals TE, RB and Caldwell had drops.
It wasn’t contained to one or two players, it was everyone on the field dropping passes.
Love the Broncos, don't like their Coach.
by McGeorge on Sep 15, 2009 11:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just watched again on DTV Shortcuts...
…and Cincy had 7 drops, Denver 8. Interestingly, the Denver drops were much bigger relative to the situation. I counted 5 missed first downs on Denver drops. 5 of Cincy’s drops were shallow routes with closing defenders, so they were largely— or at least probably— inconsequential. Those details alone can explain the discrepency in ToP, which is the only statistical category where the Bengals had the clear advantage.
I don’t care what anybody says. Denver deserved to win, and the biggest bit of luck on the day is that the Bengals didn’t end up getting embarrassed in front of the home crowd.
by PredominantlyOrange on Sep 15, 2009 12:31 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
great info
thanks for the take!
by CoastalBronco on Sep 15, 2009 12:39 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed! If luck equals preparation meets opportunity
then the Bengals were just prepared enough to not be embarrassed, and we gave them the opportunities not to be. : )
Conversation nonstarters: hoping McDaniels fails, comparing Bears to Broncos, Cutler to Orton, apples to oranges, and casual drinkers to Raiders fans.
by broncosmontana on Sep 15, 2009 2:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really hope you are right about the BM bomb one… to me it looked like he just didn’t try
A truth can only be expressed and enveloped in words if it is one-sided. Everything that is thought and expressed in words is one-sided, only half the truth; it all lacks totality, completeness, unity.
by Todd Jewell on Sep 15, 2009 12:40 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
He didn’t react because he didn’t see the ball. The sun was directly overhead and likely made it hard to track a high pass. 15 drops in one game (7 for one team and 8 for the other)? That is more than just one guy loafing.
BM made a few nice catches and run after grabs. His first drop was a very poor throw on the WR bubble screen. He held on to another poor throw that got him leveled. Royal dropped his. It was far from BMs best game, but he did miss the last several months with a major injury to his hip and then a near catastrophic injury to his ego. He should be better next week. Let’s hope Orton is too.
Love the Broncos, don't like their Coach.
by McGeorge on Sep 15, 2009 1:57 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
lmao!!!
near catastrophic injury to his ego
Is there a special IR for that? Or is that what we call suspension? ; )
Conversation nonstarters: hoping McDaniels fails, comparing Bears to Broncos, Cutler to Orton, apples to oranges, and casual drinkers to Raiders fans.
by broncosmontana on Sep 15, 2009 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look again
The shadows on the field indicated the sun was sideways to the field.
by Endzone on Sep 15, 2009 3:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
BMarsh wants to get paid
I hardly think that he’s intentionally playing poorly since that would hurt him in that regard. He’s just rusty. Heck the etire O looked rusty and BMarsh is behind them in the learning curve with all of his missed time.
People can use statistics to prove anything, 87% of all people know that.
by c_style on Sep 16, 2009 10:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post....thx
I thought the SD Defensive performance was also an indictment of Ron Rivera’s ability as a D.Coord……in the end, he is just not a good fit.
Your note about Tenn’s interior lines makes me think the fact they struggle with teams that come close to matching their physicality is a sign of their limitations. Collins has to be able to get the job done under pressure.
When it comes to Oak, the scariest question to ask is where would this team be if it wasn’t in Oakland….or, even better, had so-so as a coach (this question is only relevant if the team is NOT in Oakland though)?
Really surprised you mentioned Benson as a “talented” player….. I’m thinking good or decent at best. Then again, I hope Cincy proves to be gangbusters for the rest of the year….keep up the good work!
by BideshiBronco on Sep 15, 2009 10:55 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Well done, Ted. Great analysis and write-up!!
..my eyes agree with everything that you saw. Few points:
1. Glad you called out Hochstein – this was an absolute disaster and a real cause for concern going forward (depending upon Kuper’s recovery and/or willingness to play Olsen instead)..
2. KnowMo looked the same way that Tomlinson did after returning from his knee ‘avulsion’ injury: lacking explosion and hesitant to make hard vertical cuts
3. I don’t understand why Hillis isn’t getting more carries. I know we had difficulty establishing the run, but Hillis’ power will help to wear down big D-lines
4. Glad you gave a shout to Seymour from the Raiders – he was a MONSTER, esp in the 1st half when he was fresh and the Raiders were winning the possession battle.
5. Our LBs played solid, but I agree we have got to be able to make it to the edges to stop the run. We made Benson look much better than he is..
Thanks again. Great work.
by SteveAssassin on Sep 15, 2009 10:57 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Another great post, Ted!
Thanks for your efforts.
" Life is what happens while you're making other plans "
by hairybear on Sep 15, 2009 10:59 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
DVR Remote Suggestion
if you want to go low tech I usually just turn the boxes at very strange angles so they don’t catch the same signal. With a little trial and error you can usually make it where if you aim the remote at one wall you’ll change one box and if you aim the remote at the other wall it will change the other box.. takes a little work sometimes though.
Great writeup as always!
by DCBroncos on Sep 15, 2009 11:25 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
DVR SOLUTION
I used to do the angling thing. Still annoying. The remotes can be programmed to control their specific DVR. I had a direcTV guy do it for me in two seconds. Call direcTV and ask. They will tell you over the phone. It’s so much easier.
by Evilfonzie on Sep 15, 2009 11:43 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Man Cavery
We need to get a thread on this: everyone post their man-cave photos, so that we may all bask in their collective glory
"Don't feed the trolls. Remember to be polite. And please show self-restraint in comment length!" -Me, to myself, because I need constant reminding.
by Disco_Stu on Sep 15, 2009 11:55 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
just vacuum first. ;-)
"When a new coach comes in and expects hard work, a team attitude and personal accountability over a personal thirst for glory, I won’t fault him for the reactions of a few selfish individual." ~Hunter Ansley, InDenverTimes.com
by Colorado_Kitten on Sep 15, 2009 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great stuff, Ted.
Well worth the time to read. I got a lot out of this.
I’m also both jealous and afraid of your man-cave. Two TVs side by side, awesome! (I know that’s not how you usually roll but that was funny, but made sense, too, given how much you were trying to follow.)
I didn’t catch most of the NBC game but heard from other people how annoying Collinsworth was, about Cutler in particular. Enough already. Can’t wait til they do a Broncos game, er, if they do this season.
The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".
by underdog on Sep 15, 2009 12:17 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Andra Davis
no doubt had a little edge that comes with familiarity against former division foes. May help us against Pittsburgh, as well.
Great read as always, TB. Love love love this feature.
Conversation nonstarters: hoping McDaniels fails, comparing Bears to Broncos, Cutler to Orton, apples to oranges, and casual drinkers to Raiders fans.
by broncosmontana on Sep 15, 2009 1:11 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting how both MHR and Cincy Jungle feels their team was the best team on the field yesterday
Score says, right now, we’re pretty evenly matched. But I certainly feel good about the W, especially given the way we shut down their long passing game.
Conversation nonstarters: hoping McDaniels fails, comparing Bears to Broncos, Cutler to Orton, apples to oranges, and casual drinkers to Raiders fans.
by broncosmontana on Sep 15, 2009 2:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
All I can say is Wow
And others would say you need to get a life! But I really enjoyed your thorough end of half Clock Management analysis! Totally insightful!
And I’d tell you all about my man cave, but you’d be jealous!
by Trogdoor on Sep 15, 2009 1:51 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Great, GREAT stuff as always Ted!
One thought that I had….
I was glad to see that we were sticking with a lot of zoneblocking, but was terribly dissapointed to see a lack of one cut, downhill running. Knowshon had the roughest time commiting to his cut – he would dance around instead of going north south after his first move. I imagine Turner will be hitting this hard in practice.
Rec’d!
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe
by Steve Nichols on Sep 15, 2009 2:05 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Passing game thoughts?
In your analysis of Denver’s offense, you didn’t mention our passing offense (other than the protection), which is supposed to be the centerpiece. I’d be curious to hear your thoughts regarding its utter ineffectiveness.
Thanks for the post.
by Broncos_FTW on Sep 15, 2009 2:35 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
We either faced a pretty good defense Sunday
or our offense stunk to high heaven. Dropped passes, missed running routes and OLine penalties. The fix better on or it’s going to be a long season for the defense.
by bfree2bronc on Sep 15, 2009 4:09 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Low-Tech directional remote
Take a paper towel cardboard tube and slide it over the end of the remote. If this covers too many essential buttons, cut 6-inch sections and tape them to your receivers centered over the remote sensor window. Either option should work fine as long as you are using the infrared remote signal.
great post, as usual.
I'm tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money. I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok.
Shaquille O'Neal
by tannji on Sep 15, 2009 4:58 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Excellent post, Ted! Rec'd. The pic of your man-cave made it special.
I remember an interview with Bobby Turner about the RBs that he coached. He mentioned that when he first worked with Clnton Portis, Portis didn’t want to run downhill – the 1-cut and go. He instead wanted to blast around the end. I suspect that Knowshon is getting the same training from Bobby.
I caught the last 38 seconds of our game when the network switched from the Atlanta-Miami game. I jumped higher than I thought I could when I saw Stokley catch that tip.
Since I watched the rest on my computer, I saw the play calling and clock management on the drive to the FG ending the 1st half. Thanks for your explanation on it. I really like this kind of football. Our guys are using what the opposition is giving them. I think that we beat a good team Sunday. Their defense was good enough to keep our O off balance. Sometimes that is all you have to do to slow down an offense.
Thanks for all your insights.
A note on your man-cave: we take our shoes off at the front door and walk around either barefoot or in socks. It helps keep the place clean. Might shorten your vacuuming chores.
by Blackknigh on Sep 15, 2009 5:54 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Stellar writeup
loved the 2-minute drill breakdown (never really thought of it that way) and of course your general observations from around the league are solid as always.
Nice cavery too!… I don’t have a cave myself, more of a man-corner…. :)
John’s cave is hard to outdo though… you all may have caught a glimpse of it on MHR radio… And lets not forget the only place to be in Germany!
Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.
by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 15, 2009 6:16 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
If your reciever uses an Infrared remote you can just put a piece of tape or something in front of the sensor diode on the bigger screens reciever
CentSports free 10 cents to bet with , completely ad-supported, no personal info check it out
Tom Brandstater -nstater +y =Tom Brady 13-3 baby
by RiG on Sep 15, 2009 7:23 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Or
if you set the reciever to AV1/2 from DirectTV in the setup menu under remote
menu> settings> setup> remote> receiver mode>AV1
then slide to av1
youll probably have to reprogram the remote to 00002 by holding Select & Mute wait for green light then enter the #
CentSports free 10 cents to bet with , completely ad-supported, no personal info check it out
Tom Brandstater -nstater +y =Tom Brady 13-3 baby
by RiG on Sep 15, 2009 7:38 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow Ted Awesome Job.
Great insightful work and a great read.
by RudyR on Sep 15, 2009 9:26 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

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