The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 1
by TJ Johnson on Sep 15, 2009 9:11 PM MDT
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PrintStatistics are like women; mirrors of purest virtue and truth, or like whores to use as one pleases.
---Theodor Billroth
There were 16 games played in week 1. Here's the big picture with respect to Turnovers, Time of Possession, 3rd Down Efficiency, and Field Position:
- In 12 of the 16 games, the winning team also won the turnover battle (75%)
- In 12 of the 16 games, the winning team also won the time of possession battle (75%)
- In 13 of the 16 games, the winning team had a higher 3rd down efficiency ratio (81%)
- In 12 of the 16 games, the winning team had a better average starting field position (75%)
- In 7 of the 16 games, one team won all four of the categories (turnovers, time of possession, 3rd down efficiency, and starting field position). In all 7 of these games, they ended up winning the game as well.
Average Time of Possession of this week's winners: 32:47
Average Third Down Efficiency of this week's winners: 45%
Average Starting Field Position of this week's winners: 32.15 yard line
Individual Games:
Score TOs TOP Third Down Field Pos
TEN 10 2 28:19 25.00% 20.50
PIT 13 3 36:13 28.57% 30.85
DEN 12 0 26:33 23.08% 21.36
CIN 7 2 33:27 33.33% 28.00
JAX 12 0 26:04 40.00% 27.60
IND 14 2 33:56 57.14% 32.40
MIA 7 4 29:07 36.36% 21.82
ATL 19 0 30:53 40.00% 46.91
KC 24 0 20:11 20.00% 29.64
BAL 38 1 39:49 58.82% 30.09
PHI 38 2 31:37 38.46% 39.77
CAR 10 7 28:23: 18.75% 33.33
MIN 34 0 33:22 42.86% 38.08
CLE 20 2 26:38 25.00% 27.50
NYJ 24 1 38:46 55.56% 27.73
HOU 7 2 21:14 30.00% 21.78
DET 27 3 23:30. 43% 32.50
NO 45 3 36:30 69.23% 31.92
CHI 15 4 33:03 26.67% 26.54
GB 21 0 26:57 28.57% 40.92
SF 20 1 31:37 38.89% 30.31
ARZ 16 2 28:23 28.57% 26.21
DAL34 0 26:28 30.00% 26.82
TB 21 0 33:32 38.46% 23.18
STL 0 1 27:33 18.18% 24.92
SEA28 3 32:27 53.33% 21.00
WAS17 2 23:52 41.67% 23.50
NYG23 2 36:08 46.15% 30.20
BUF24 1 22:52 40.00% 29.25
NE25 1 37:08 62.50% 33.60
SD24 2 28:23 41.67% 28.83
OAK20 3 31:37 50.00% 29.09
Week 1 down. Here's hoping the Broncos can improve in 3 of the 4 categories. If so, they'll have another week of success.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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Nicely done, Lebowski.
This is good stuff. It’s analysis without being too analytical… if that makes any sense. Thanks for being straight forward.
-Harvey J. Neptune
"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi
Interesting that we won only 1 of the 4 categories but got to win
also interesting that SD only one 1 category but won the game also.
rec’d for a great analysis
"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It
thanks BShrout
I would surmise that’s because if you are going to win one of the categories, it better be TOs. They have the highest correlation to wins of the 4. Good points for sure. Denver needs to get better in the other 3…and quick.
Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.
week 1 anomoly?
i wonder if week 1 games are more like transitional between preseason and real life and don’t reflect statistical fruition. i mean, in week 1 there always seem to be games where the “better” team took awhile to find its footing, if that makes any sense. i don’t really know what i’m saying except that week 1 football never seems to be a solid indicator of how things will truly go.
agreed
Look at the “high powered” offenses that struggled
"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It
by Brian Shrout on Sep 15, 2009 10:21 PM MDT up reply actions
Ox, Great Point
When I did the analysis of the 265 games from last year, I noticed that during the 1/4 of the season, total yardage was correlating higher than the other stats above. But during the last 1/4 of the season, Turnover Ratio was kicking the hell out of all the others. Field Position was a close 2nd in last 1/4 too.
Your point is spot on, I think. If I have time this year, I will go back and run a full regression on the last 2 seasons data. Also, I will be keeping a running analysis of this season too. So I will have more data.
But that was what I noticed last year, which is exactly your point. The offenses that were piling up yards were winning initially.
Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.
LOL
thanks for the credit, dude. it’s like you just painted the entire house and i decided that the flag on the mailbox should be red, so i get the paycheck. (good gig if you can get it) :-)
i do like that my thinking goes with your stats, though. i actually have always felt that it’s not just week 1 that’s weird, but that it’s about week 4 that teams can start to be more “predicted upon”.
related side note: i heard a debate on sports radio a week or so ago and the topic was ‘should there be a preseason in college football or not’. suddenly, i realized one of the main reasons i’m not a huge college football fan. it bugs the hell out of me that Garganimus U can be upset by Ol’ Maid Tech in week 1 and never smell the running for the title again—the season’s already over after game freaking 1! hate that.
Also remember...
Defense schemes seem to run more smoothly earlier on, and the offenses take longer to click. It is no coincidence that scores between teams are generally lower, seems to me, in weeks 1 and 2. You get the occasional blow out by those teams whose MAJOR strength is offense (eg New Orleans) but the more well rounded, and defensively orientated teams take longer to get their offenses humming.
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
Perhaps that's a correlation to the Broncos season last year.
The beginning of the season, we were going up and down the field winning games. Later in the season, when turnovers and field position mattered more, we lost. Denver was terrible in both turnovers and field position, so they are a prime example for this study.
Bringing Bronco love from 1,112 miles away
by Troy Hufford on Sep 16, 2009 8:47 AM MDT up reply actions
Interesting how the Packers had no turnovers (to JC’s 4) and yet the Bears waxed them on TOP. You’d think that Green Bay would have won that battle based on getting free offensive drives and the 3rd down conversion rate being similar for the teams.
But it’s no secret that turnovers lead to favorable field position.
hey doc
good good question. I think the answer lies in what we say last year with JC and Den. When you go and look at the yardage from that game you will see the bears dominated. Thus, what was going on:
1) J C can really move the team , especially from 30 to 30
2) This leads to a lot of yardage and sometimes TOP, given the Bears still like to pound the ball
3) JC commits a dumb turnover and they don’t get the benefit of the scores
Just a very quick blush, but I will go back and look a little more. Working on a Champ/BMarsh Post for tomorrow right now…
Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.
After one week, Chicago has the #11 offense in the NFL
if you go by yards, #22 if you go by points. Familiar pattern?
Conversation nonstarters: hoping McDaniels fails, comparing Bears to Broncos, Cutler to Orton, apples to oranges, and casual drinkers to Raiders fans.
by broncosmontana on Sep 15, 2009 10:45 PM MDT up reply actions
don't look at the same numbers for Denver, though
trust me. Not worth it. ; )
Conversation nonstarters: hoping McDaniels fails, comparing Bears to Broncos, Cutler to Orton, apples to oranges, and casual drinkers to Raiders fans.
by broncosmontana on Sep 15, 2009 10:46 PM MDT up reply actions
Nothing to see here...
Really…move along…nothing to see in yardage stats.
The leagues #1 offense is the one which most consistently scores a minimum of 1 point more than the defense gives up. You know after game 16. End of stat discussion.
"Life is a daring adventure or nothing" - Helen Keller
"He will always be a slave who does not know how to live upon a little" Horace
by PositivIntegral on Sep 16, 2009 3:13 AM MDT up reply actions
Ha!
Can really move between the 30’s. I love it.
Reminds me of the revers of this line from my Star Wars youth:
INTERIOR: MOS EISLEY SPACEPORT — DOCKING BAY 94
Chewbacca leads the group into a giant dirt pit that is Docking
Bay 94. Resting in the middle of the huge hole is a large,
round, beat-up, pieced-together hunk of junk that could only
loosely be called a starship.
LUKE: What a piece of junk.
The tall figure of Han Solo comes down the boarding ramp.
HAN: She’ll make point five beyond the speed of light. She may not
look like much, but she’s got it where it counts, kid. I’ve added some
special modifications myself.
Luke scratches his head. It’s obvious he isn’t sure about
all this. Chewbacca rushes up the ramp and urges the others to
follow.
Only that it would be reversed. She looks like much, but really doesn’t have it where it counts.
Is JC then the anti-Millennium Falcon?
Please, I need feedback on this!
or the Death Star
A big fancy weapon that, comes crunch time, blows up in your face.
"My job description is to win football games. I'm a hard worker. I'm not flashy by any means, but my job is to play football and win and I plan to do that." Kyle Orton
by odarol on Sep 15, 2009 11:55 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
HAHAHA...I like that Odarol!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
It takes years and years
To get over being a hero after every lost game. The things JC seems to lack are all fixable, and all related to maturity, IMHO. Boy will be fine if he doesn’t give up: human beings are not as simple as movie props.
Love the reference, though. For the past 57 weeks, I’d say you pretty much have Jay nailed as the inverse of the Millenium Falcon.
"Life is a daring adventure or nothing" - Helen Keller
"He will always be a slave who does not know how to live upon a little" Horace
by PositivIntegral on Sep 16, 2009 3:17 AM MDT up reply actions
As a coach myself, it is hard to fix intangibles...
You are not going to fix a “ME TOO” personality like that. He is incapable of being a team player….he sees the team as being there to support HIS goals…..and not the other way round.
This is a personality trait that wont change.
You also have a HUGE dose of soccer parent 101 coming from his dad. Dad and family are SO deep in his life, that he never really had a chance. Even when he is a bonehead, Dad will tell him he is the best, and its everyone elses fault. When this has been going on for years, its hard to fix unless you get a HARD ARSE coach.
I dont know if anyone read the interview that was in Fanshots, but here are some interesting tidbits about the family’s involvement:
- His kid sister is his assistant. Another one of the family entourage to tell him hes the bets.
- The celebration of the family when he got traded to Chicago: “We are finally going home!”. This strikes me as very strange behavior, and leads me to believe that the family was never happy in Denver, and instead of making Jay be a man and stya true to his word, they help convince him to get out of Denver as they were never happy. Very odd.
Anyway, not our problem anymore, and I hope for Chicago he is even serviceable. my gut tells me what we saw Sunday night is the tip of the iceberg……and if it goes to crap against the Steelers, watch the Death Star implode!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
Heres the link to the article...
http://www.michiganavemag.com/MA_SP09_100_NEW.html
And the photos of Jay are scary….dont say you have not been warned.
THANKS TO BRING BACK ORANGE FOR POSTING THE FANSHOT AND FINDING THE ARTICLE!!!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
I Think This is a better Photo
Tis better not to throw it to the deep receiver but the open receiver.
It will be amazing if Cutler makes the entire season.
I don’t see it happening with their OLine. Plays like that are bellowing out for shoulder, arm or hand injury.
by bfree2bronc on Sep 16, 2009 10:27 AM MDT up reply actions
Gymnastics!
I’d give that one-armed handstand a 7.5
Hillis/Moreno in '09
by Doc Bear on Sep 16, 2009 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Jay Wasn't Taking Calls
Interesting quote from the article;
…an 847 number called and I didn’t answer it. I was just letting everything go to voicemail at that point.
So we're talking differentiation here
If JC’s rate of change stays near zero – as it has the last couple years, he’ll still be the M.Falcon(-1). If that derivative goes more positive, then he’s got X-Wing potential.
Close games had dominant in all but TO and the game could then go either way
The close games seem to have had a dominant 3 of 4 team but the score was close if the dominant team lost or tied on TO. TOs, especially late ones must allow the game to remain within one score, i.e., winnable in one play.
Cincy, 3/4 and lost
Oak 3/4 and lost
NE, 3/4, tied TO and had to come from behind wining by 3
Pitt, 3/4 lost TO and only won by 3
Indy 3/4 lost TO and and only won by 2
Moral: TO above all is the win killer, What ever else you do, if you turn over the ball, the other team can hang around and come back to bite you in the end or you may need to pull a rabbit out of your hat if you don’t.
broncorat
by broncorat on Sep 15, 2009 10:42 PM MDT reply actions 5 recs
Rat
Couldn’t have said it any better myself. Thanks for pointing this out. I will rec this. Thanks!! I love it when someone from MHR adds to my stuff…especially this gem. Thanks!
Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.
Of course
the Broncos are one of the exceptions for all of those besides winning the T.O. differential at +2. I guess that this just proves you don’t win games when you turn the ball over.
great stuff.....pls keep doing every team
I asked for other teams on the other post and you had already provided it……this is great stuff, bro! Thx and keep up the good work!!
It gives great insight and some meat to support my hunches!
Ditto for me as well.
"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"We don't stop playing because we grow old; We grow old because we stop playing." -- George Bernard Shaw
Breaking jaws or the NFL in Oakland who cares? Fall on your pirate’s sword - Ponderosa
by KaptainKirk on Sep 15, 2009 11:30 PM MDT up reply actions
The Usual greatness
Make it three here. Keep it up so we can keep learning.
I’ll take winning the TO battle everytime, but the others help keep the victory safe.
Make those miracles happen - Jon Keyworth
by IgorBStrange on Sep 16, 2009 1:32 AM MDT up reply actions
Great stuff
Clean and to the point. Last stat is incalculable: enough heart to overcome deficit in two or more of your 4 categories.
Looking back, that’s what impresses me most: last year it seemed like we needed to be doubling the other teams yardage, holding the ball 39 minutes, etc. etc. to win. This year?
"Life is a daring adventure or nothing" - Helen Keller
"He will always be a slave who does not know how to live upon a little" Horace
by PositivIntegral on Sep 16, 2009 3:21 AM MDT reply actions
Oh, and another thing...
What I like about this list of stats (and I love numbers, but not football stats particularly) is that except for 3rd down efficiency, the defense contributes to all of them.
D…freaking…matters.
"Life is a daring adventure or nothing" - Helen Keller
"He will always be a slave who does not know how to live upon a little" Horace
by PositivIntegral on Sep 16, 2009 3:23 AM MDT reply actions
Defense. It works, beyatches!
Yeah, just as the Steelers.
"When a new coach comes in and expects hard work, a team attitude and personal accountability over a personal thirst for glory, I won’t fault him for the reactions of a few selfish individual." ~Hunter Ansley, InDenverTimes.com
by Colorado_Kitten on Sep 16, 2009 1:23 PM MDT up reply actions
If you want a really interesting statistical analysis of football . . .
take a look at the work done by Football Outsiders. The metrics look intimidating at first, but if you dig in a bit and hang with it, the logic of the analysis comes through. I’ve been reading their stuff for a couple of years now, and I’m impressed with how accurately they dissect the strengths, weaknesses and performance problems of each team. You can find their site here: http://footballoutsiders.com/
Another awesome post Lebowski.
Heres hoping they improve this week, but they will have their hands full and better get the run game going. Here’s hoping Moreno has a break out game this weekend. The Browns were vulnerable on the outside in the second half where Peterson ran for over a 100 yards. We all know McDaniels has already disected the Browns/Vikes game so it will be interesting how he attacks them.
Where did you find these stats?
Like average starting field position? What is the best stat website?
Well, you see....
He Taped every Single game.
Then Spent Hundreds of Hours Stopping and recording each stat individually.
Going through Cases of Red Bull, and possibly other Dudelike amenities, before finally spending HOURS doing the calculations that he was able to show to us today…..
and if thats not how he did it…….deal with it.
"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work."
- Thomas Alva Edison
"Success is not a place at which one arrives, but rather... the spirit with which one undertakes and continues the journey."
- Alex Noble
Hrm....that came off much more snippy than I anticipated.....(think jovial Comment when you read that)
"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work."
- Thomas Alva Edison
"Success is not a place at which one arrives, but rather... the spirit with which one undertakes and continues the journey."
- Alex Noble
Thanks Dude
simple. Rec’d. :-)
"When a new coach comes in and expects hard work, a team attitude and personal accountability over a personal thirst for glory, I won’t fault him for the reactions of a few selfish individual." ~Hunter Ansley, InDenverTimes.com
by Colorado_Kitten on Sep 16, 2009 1:27 PM MDT reply actions
Oh...and to follow up on my thought in your Intro post
That Donkhead was also curious about: Penalties. I had earlier posted that I was curious about one other stat:
Pentalties. I guess that would sort of be a subset in both field position and third-down conversion, as if you get an offensive penalty, you are decreasing your favorable field position and lessening your chance of getting that conversion. Likewise if you get a defensive penalty, you are giving yoru opponent better field position and increasing their conversion.
So I thought I’d see what the week 1 stats had to say about it. Below are the teams with score, along with penalties/penalty yards. No distinction between offensive and defensive penalties:
TEN 10 5/28
PIT 13 6/60
DEN 12 6/39
CIN 7 4/27
JAX 12 3/24
IND 14 3/17
MIA 7 4/27
ATL 19 4/35
KC 24 3/15
BAL 38 8/65
PHI 38 9/76
CAR 10 5/31
MIN 34 3/38
CLE 20 8/66
NYJ 24 10/80
HOU 7 6/37
DET 27 8/80
NO 45 7/36
CHI 15 3/25
GB 21 6/45
SF 20 4/31
ARZ 16 12/82
DAL34 4/41
TB 21 3/15
STL 0 10/85
SEA28 4/25
WAS17 4/32
NYG23 4/30
BUF24 9/71
NE25 6/55
SD24 9/60
OAK20 6/40
57% of the teams with more penalties than their opponents won their match-ups. What does this mean? Do penalties not matter as much as we think? Or is Week 1 just a strange beast all on it’s own and we need a bigger sample size to get a better picture? Or is there a difference between offensive and defensive penalties and we really need to break that down in order to get a clear answer?
Thoughts?
"When a new coach comes in and expects hard work, a team attitude and personal accountability over a personal thirst for glory, I won’t fault him for the reactions of a few selfish individual." ~Hunter Ansley, InDenverTimes.com
by Colorado_Kitten on Sep 16, 2009 2:45 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Penalties
Yeah, I think there’s a big difference between offensive and defensive penalties. On offense, you lose yardage, but get to keep the ball and down and try again. On defense, with many penalties, it’s almost like a turnover. If you stop a team on third down, but get a holding penalty (for example), they get to keep the ball with four new downs.
by Pat in Colorado on Sep 16, 2009 5:01 PM MDT up reply actions
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