Anyone follow FootballOutsiders' DVOA rankings?

I haven’t followed the DVOA rankings and don’t really know how they calculate all of that stuff, but I don’t see how Denver can be 31st. They won!!!!!

I don’t know. Maybe they stopped calculating after the Bengals Touchdown.

We have one data point. There are not trends to compare yet. Preseason is a joke.

Interestingly, this has held up surprisingly well for the last couple of years. The major exception being the Patriots/ Giants Super Bowl game which caught quite a few of us by surprise.

We will beat the Bowns…
.

Playoffs here we come!!

I like the methodology they use to come to their ratings. I like the fact they watch every play and break it down – including assigning success/failure to defenders.

It’s far more meaningful, then just looking at a team or a player’s raw stats.

Essentially what they are doing is analysing how succesful teams and players are at getting the job done i.e. moving/stopping the chains. After all if a player leads the league in tackles but most of the time these tackles were made after the 1st down was made, is that really a good indication of how well he has played.? DVOA is a worthy attempt to bypass the mundane stats we put upfrom the MSM.

That said I have found greater success beating Vegas simply using Walt Football’s predictions. Walt’s a bit of a sloppy analsyst, but he usually finds a way to come out just ahead by Monday evening to make a nice small profit on the weekend. He does try and break down the psychology factors for each game more and it does seem to work, even though scientifically perhaps it shouldn’t.

Despite my enthusiasm for Football Outsiders I can’t help thinking that their system needs some tuning if it is to be used effectively as a prediction tool.

just found the site through another FO fan…..great site with interesting approach….thx for the link and insight!!

Is to bring a sabermetrics type attitude to the NFL. With the revolution that sport has gone under, it stands to reason that any sport can benefit from an analytical/statistics based approach. The Houston Rockets have used many concepts described in Money Ball to improve their team— they’re one of the first in the NBA to do it, and do it cost effectively.

While the numbers may be subject to hole-poking, they are making a definitive stand based on a series of outcomes, and that counts for a lot more than most analysts. I personally believe that they do a very good job, and their data on offensive lines has really helped me in fantasy football.

I will always believe that a skill at stats won’t make up for a lack of football knowledge – the game is just too complex. the numbers often are misleading, since the tackle numbers don’t include (and can’t) everyone on the tackle and many things such as ‘drops’ are helpful but ultimately imprecise. That doesn’t mean that these guys aren’t darned good at what they do, though, and their information is extremely helpful at times.