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MHR Chalk Talk -- Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

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The Browns are a hard team for me to figure out.  Some portions of their game looked good or bad in the preseason, then looked completely different in Week One.  Some portions of their game varied widely from the first to the second half of that first regular season game, too.  Even their offensive line varies (looks much better on the strong side of the field than the weak side).

But in fairness, how predictable are the Broncos?  Kyle Orton didn't look too sharp in his first regular season game for Denver, failing to move the ball down the field much.  On the other hand, he gave up zero interceptions and had a good completion rate.  (Chicago fans got what Denver fans said they would - a QB that moves the ball down the field like a Pro Bowler, but gets interceptions at the end of drives instead of touchdowns).  Denver's vaunted running game?  Didn't materialize.  Poor special teams coverage?  Nope, the team did a solid job.  Denver's defense looked better than last year by far, while the offense (still star-studded) looked plain.

In short, this is a matchup of two teams that are morphing before our eyes, and anything can happen.  While I'm inclined to favor Denver, there are enough question marks that I don't think the game is a lock by any stretch.

Let's look further into the matchup, and see what is worth watching for...

Star-divide

Browns Offense vs Broncos Defense

The Browns passing offense against Denver's defense is my favorite matchup in terms of intrigue.

   vs  Doom vs Thomas (courtesy - NFL)

Elvis Dumervil is an elite pass rusher, and has beaten the best left tackles in the League.  He faces Joe Thomas, who is an excellent player, and this is going to be a terrific battle.  With the 5-2 look that Denver presents (DE - DG - NT - DG - DE and two true LBS), Denver can use the extra pass rusher to form schemes that force the OL to make hard decisions and this may help "Doom".  The Browns will counter by using TEs in to block, and the entire Browns' passing offense will hinge on the success of the Browns' offensive line.

I wrote two to three years ago about how the FB is a position being slowly phased out of modern football, to be replaced with more TEs.  (The end of this evolution is expected to be 3-TE sets).  We'll see some of this theory in the Denver - Cleveland game, as both teams will heavily rely on two-TE or 3-WR sets.  I don't expect to see a FB very much for either side.

So, given the coaching theory that 1 defensive lineman is equivelent to 1.5 O-Linemen (based on rules that allow D-Linemen to do more than their counterparts), we see 5 DLs for Denver (they run a 5-2) and 7 (two TEs) for Cleveland.  Denver has 7.5 points (1.5 for each lineman) against 7, which are close odds.  Denver's LBs shouldn't be a factor on most plays, as there are only really two true LBs on the field in the 5-2 to cover other responsibilities.

Now the key comes down to what Cleveland decides to do.  Cleveland has three worthy receivers in Braylon Edwards (a good all-around WR) and Joshua Cribbs (a deep threat who is also a monster in the return game).  Some would argue that Mike Furrey should get the start over Cribbs because he is a better all-around receiver.  But Denver has an elite secondary, with future Hall of Fame-players Champ Bailey at CB and Brian Dawkins at FS.  Denver also also has CB Andre' Goodman, who has been excellent since coming to Denver, as well as Renaldo Hill at SS.  As if this isn't enough, Denver has depth at defensive back with rookie phenom CB Alphonso Smith and several players at safety.

If I'm Cleveland's offensive coordinator, I stick with Brady Quinn's strengths and the TEs.  Quinn likes to throw to his TEs, and the coverage against even three-receiver sets should lean in Denver's favor.  Cleveland should play two-TE sets to match the Denver front five, with the added threat of one or both TEs going into quick routes.  This forces D.J. Williams and Andra Davis to make decisions between covering TEs, or watching for the run.  Expect Denver's two LBs to be in zone. 

  Andra Davis (Courtesy - NFL)

A quick note on Andra Davis.  A lot of Cleveland fans may look forward to playing against Davis.  He was considered slow (true) and not a great asset for Cleveland (true again).  But in Denver's scheme, Davis has found his niche as a very effective run stopper, and is getting put in position to (surprisingly) make a difference when the ball goes in the air.  As I wrote during the re-loading season, the acquistion of Davis makes sense for Denver.  Cleveland fans would be surprised to watch some game film of Davis in Week One against the Bengals, and with a chip on his shoulder, he might be a force in this game as well.

Watch the right side of the Cleveland offensive line.  Denver has suddenly found depth by swtiching from a 4-3 to a 5-2, and players ranging from Mario Haggan to Darrell Reid to 1st-round pick Robert Ayers may be rotated in to attack a suspect duo of John St. Clair and Floyd Womack.

A big question mark is Cleveland's RB situation.  As of Thursday's practice, Jamal Lewis was limited in practice, and Jerome Harrison practiced fully, but is coming off of a knee injury.  Cedric Peerman and James Davis were also limited in practice.  Denver's rush defense is much improved, and the new schemes in use by Denver tend to support stopping the run.

 Jamal Lewis (Courtesy - NFL)

Cleveland likes to run the ball, and did so (and well) against the Vikings.  Lewis is the kind of player that can average over 5 YPC, so I think Cleveland will continue to pound the ball and avoid some of the issues in the passing game.  Cleveland's game plan may be as simple as trying to establish the run, force a safety into the box, and then let go with a deep ball.  Don't be surprised if the biggest gain via pass turns out to be to a TE, and not Cribbs.  Denver's safeties will be making tricky decisions on whether to cover a TE or play over the top of WRs that may streak the field at any moment.

Broncos Offense vs Browns Defense

Denver's run game didn't look so hot in the season opener.  I noted two problems here.  First, Denver was calling sweeps with Peyton Hillis, who is more of a downhill guy who shouldn't be racing to the edge.  But more importantly, rookie Knowshon Moreno was dancing around instead of taking his one cut and committing.  This is something that I'm sure the RBs coach (Turner) will be addressing this week in practice.  Correll Buckhalter had some flashes, and looks to develop into an effective RB for Denver.

Cleveland's run defense was solid in the first half of Game One, severely limiting an elite Vikings gound game.  But when the second half rolled around, the defense rolled over.  In Denver, where the altitude makes endurance a bigger factor, watch closely to see if Denver goes into the second half with a lead to wear down the Browns defense.

Denver's pass game is interesting to look at.  Brandon Marshall is deadly with yards after the catch, but didn't look comfortable having missed much of the offseason either suspended or holding out.  Eddie Royal didn't have a great game, but that's a rare thing.  Denver can still count on amazing depth, having seen great play in the preseason from Brandon Stokley, Jabar Gaffney, and Brandon Lloyd.  Denver also has receiving threats at TE with Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler, as well as superior blocking from Graham and rookie Richard Quinn.

 Kyle Orton (Courtesy - NFL)

The big question mark is, as always, Kyle Orton.  Denver fans that were used to spectacular yards aren't seeing them, and this is bad.  On the other hand, Denver fans aren't seeing multiple interceptions, and this is terrific.  Orton needs to have two goals for this game...

First, continue to protect the ball.  The team can afford to be limited in passing yards while still winning ballgames.  With a slow-moving offense though, the team can't afford more than one (if that) interception.  Second, as Orton gets more comfortable, he'll need to make more passes.  Denver won't win on the running game alone, and needs at least some balance to help the running game to get consistant yards.

An entertaining matchup on this side of the game is Browns NT Shaun Rogers against Denver OC Casey Wiegmann.

Special Teams

 Josh Cribbs (Courtesy - NFL)

This is a picture of Josh Cribbs of the Browns.  Don't kick or punt to him.  If you do, the coverage teams had better be ready.  That is all that needs to be said about special teams.

Keys to the Game

Both teams share a crucial goal - get to the opposing QB.  Both QBs will have severe problems if they are hurried, and both teams sport excellent pass rushes.  The keys to the running games lay in the trenches, so both teams must rely on their offensive and defensive lines to win this game.  This game will be won or lost in the trenches in my opinion.

If Dumervil can work his magic on the weak side, Cleveland is in serious trouble.  If not, Cleveland still needs to worry about the right side of their line.  Likewise, Denver's famous OL showed some cracks against Cincy, and needs to be at their best to stop the Browns' attack against Orton.  Expect both teams to play an attacking defense.

While the oddsmakers, experts, and polls seem to show this being a win for Denver, I think the game is more evenly matched than most folks might think.  I'll take Denver too, but with the caveat that both teams' fans are probably underestimating their opponents.  I expect this to be a close game, with a big-play difference.

Denver -

  1. Pressure Quinn.  With enough pressure, Cleveland will have to use TEs to block instead of going on routes.  This forces Quinn to pass into a dangerous secondary.  If the pressure isn't effective, Quinn can pass to open TEs in the seams, and watch for a deep-threat moment to make a defining score in the game.
  2. Establish the run.  Cleveland showed defensive weaknesses in the second half against the Vikings, while Denver didn't seem to sweat against a Cincy team that had their hands on their hips trying to catch their breath in the second half.  If Denver's run game is sharp, the pass gets easier for Orton and the pass rush of Cleveland gets negated.
  3. Limit turnovers.  Turnovers often determine games, but in a game with the matchups presented in Game 2 of this season, I think they are even more critical.  Both teams will fight for short yardage, and I share Guru's predicition that a big play or two will likely swing the game.  For this reason, Denver can't afford to lose hard-fought field position on an interception or fumble.

Cleveland -

  1. Pressure Orton.  Orton is careful and can hold onto a ball for too long.  Orton is under a lot of pressure to succeed in Denver, and pressure on the field against the QB cancels out the star power of an elite receiving and TE corps.
  2. Force third-and-long situations so that Josh Cribbs gets plenty of touches on punts.  The more that Denver has to punt, the better the odds of a Cribbs punt return.  Denver has an improved coverage team over last year, but do they really want to face Cribbs several times?  A big play will likely decide this game, and if it isn't a break away pass (or run), it will be Cribbs.
  3. Don't challenge Bailey.  Better QBs and better WRs have made this mistake.  Quinn's throws can be effective to TEs, and he can make a lot of short and medium passes for moderate gains around the field.  Rookie nickelback Alphonso Smith can be a dangerous threat, as can veteran Goodman.  But a medium-range pass to Bailey is suicide.  Unless the receiver is clearly down field from Bailey, go elsewhere.  As I opined earlier, turnovers and big plays should determine this game.  Cleveland may need a deep pass or a return on special teams.  Denver will shoot for the turnovers, particularly on INTs.
  4. Chalk_talk_medium
Poll
Denver -
Wins big
121 votes
Wins moderate
478 votes
Wins close
345 votes
Loses close
34 votes
Loses moderate
17 votes
Loses big
16 votes

1011 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 138 comments  |  20 recs  | 

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Quick Question

When overloading the line of scrimmage, do you typically do it to the blind side of the quarterback or does it matter much? The ultimate goal I would assume is to pressure the QB immediately, so I would think you would overload the RT instead of the LT — but that wouldn’t be the blind side. In my mind, overloading the blind side would imply more of an “oh crap where am I going to get hit from” mentalitly, but overloading on the right side would force the QB [hopefully] to hot read to the other side of the field?

A truth can only be expressed and enveloped in words if it is one-sided. Everything that is thought and expressed in words is one-sided, only half the truth; it all lacks totality, completeness, unity.

by Todd Jewell on Sep 18, 2009 11:44 AM MDT reply actions  

Overloading

Good question! DCs will overload either side, and surprisingly, there doesn’t seem to be a preference for the weak side. Here are a few reasons why DCs overload, and the blind side of the QB actually doesn’t figure into it too much.

When offenses choose offensive tackles, the better pass blocker often gets the weakside (since most QBs are right handed, so the left is the blind side) and put the better run blocker at RT. On the other hand, defenses (in general) play most pass rushing players to the weakside, and run stoppers to the right. So there is a presumed balance so far.

When a DC overloads, he is often doing one of two things. Often, the overload is a “show blitz” to confuse the OL assignments. Other times, the overload is to compensate for a weakness on the defense (such as a deep depth substitution) or a strength on the offense. In such cases, the DC (depending on style) may choose to either shore up an area where he feels his team is weak, or to exploit an area on the offensive line where he feels the team is strong.

Outstanding question!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 12:16 PM MDT up reply actions   2 recs

The point of overloading one side

is to leave one O-lineman guarding empty air and his counterpart on the other side trying to fend off two rushers. That’s a bit of an oversimplification but we all know what we mean. The point is it works only if the offense doesn’t know which side is going to be overloaded, so to preserve the element of surprise the defense can’t afford to favor one side over the other. Since the offense has to be ready for both possibilities the balance of terror between an elite weakside pass blocker and an elite weakside pass rusher remains unchanged. At least that’s the way I read it.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 18, 2009 3:42 PM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

You bring up a very good point that I didn't.

The overload doesn’t have to be telegraphed. In my answer, I just assume that it is. As your answer points out, a defense can line up symetricaly but rush / blitz heavily to one side. When I think of overloading, I think of lining up the defense to show pressure on one side, but it can be done either way.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 3:59 PM MDT up reply actions  

Sounds like you’re describing a complicated version of Red Rover.

:) Nice breakdown.

by dr.mort on Sep 18, 2009 3:59 PM MDT up reply actions  

A lot in common!

lol

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 4:11 PM MDT up reply actions  

and thanks for doing this =)

A truth can only be expressed and enveloped in words if it is one-sided. Everything that is thought and expressed in words is one-sided, only half the truth; it all lacks totality, completeness, unity.

by Todd Jewell on Sep 18, 2009 11:44 AM MDT reply actions  

My pleasure!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 12:17 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the breakdown HT

I’d love to see an improved running game this week, i don’t think Moreno is quite AP yet but he sure does have potential.. Hope he has a breakout game!

Also hope to see improvements on the O-Line in the running game.. These two things go hand in hand and i think they are a big key to this game.

by HorseStance on Sep 18, 2009 11:47 AM MDT reply actions  

I'm excited too.

This game looks like a good test (like last week), and then we play our big rivalry game. After that, it is off to the races for how good the season really is.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 12:21 PM MDT up reply actions  

People forget that Brady Quinn nearly beat us last year...

I do not expect this game to be easy, but I do expect our improved defense to frustrate the inexperienced Quinn. Hopefully that will be the deciding factor. I also really hope our running game improves some…go Knowshon!

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

by Tim Lynch on Sep 18, 2009 11:49 AM MDT reply actions  

I think Quinn hasn't had much opportunity to improve...

…as he’s only started four or five games. But Denver’s defense (especialy at DBs) is very much upgraded, and the pass rush looks better.

Quinn and Orton will duke it out to see who looks better, but I’m betting on our defense to keep Quinn in check (unless, as I keep pointing out, we let a big play get by us).

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 12:23 PM MDT up reply actions  

Dawkins is the X factor on big plays

the big difference between this year and last. There was at least one play, maybe more, in which the ball carrier broke into the clear and Dawkins was waiting for him. That’s in contrast to last year, most notably in the Carolina game, in which the runner broke clear while the safety was still heading towards the opposite sideline. Dawkins’ tackle wasn’t spectacular. He was just sitting there, in the right place, waiting for the runner, who was unable to get past him. That’s the kind of backstop we didn’t have last year.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 18, 2009 4:15 PM MDT up reply actions  

Excellent point.

Dawkins is the free safety that this team has been missing. Heck, in fact he’s the free safety that almost every team is missing.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 4:22 PM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

People forget that Brady Quinn nearly beat us last year...

Really, I think Quinn nearly beat last years Broncos… not a lot in common with this years squad. I don’t think he will be able to take much from last year to use this Sunday.

I'm tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money. I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok.
Shaquille O'Neal

by tannji on Sep 18, 2009 5:10 PM MDT up reply actions  

Different defense....totally!

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.

by boydy2669 on Sep 18, 2009 9:05 PM MDT up reply actions  

I agree about Hillis.

Also I was hopeful that with the corner kick punting abilities of Colquitt that he would have been signed for the week to directionally punt the ball to the sidelines to keep it out of Cribbs hands, I know that a punter is not a one week sign, but those were my initial thoughts when I saw that he was being worked out….

by JALefor on Sep 18, 2009 11:51 AM MDT reply actions  

Denver's coverage unit looks a lot better...

…than the units that have gotten burned the last couple of years, but Cribbs is a legit threat. If we respect him more than we did Hester or Sproels we will do better. The key to keeping him off the field is to convert on third downs, and to do that, we need to prevent 3rd and long situations.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 12:26 PM MDT up reply actions  

Cribbs is my biggest concern

I’m worried less about Kern shanking punts than outkicking his coverage with line drives that give Cribbs a running start. That happened a couple of times last week, and I thought the coverage unit was a lot more impressive than it looked in containing the damage. At least one of those kicks would have turned into a long return last year. But I don’t like playing with fire, and if Kern doesn’t get better hang time I’m going to start thinking that maybe he doesn’t handle game pressure as well as I think Colquitt would.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 18, 2009 4:22 PM MDT up reply actions  

As slow as I expect the game tempo to be...

…(long drives and such), we just can’t afford to give up point on returns. I’m expecting a low scoring game, and any quick strike could be a determining factor. If for no other reason, perhaps because neither team is 100% convinced that their QB can lead a come from behind victory if the team has to play heavy on passes to catch up.

Cribbs is my biggest worry too (see Cleveland’s 2nd key).

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 4:29 PM MDT up reply actions  

The key to success for the Browns

will be in the air. If the Broncos DBs can shut down the passing game, and they can get pressure on Quinn, as you note above, then I don’t see them winning. The Broncos run defense looks better this year and the Browns don’t have much depth there. Meanwhile, as you also note, Denver can more effectively run it as the game progresses and try to wear out the Browns D. If Quinn goes off as he did in previous game, as Zappa noted, the Browns will have a shot at least. And that is certainly possible. But important to remember that Denver’s D last year was atrocious.

Could very well be a good, close game, especially if they make the mistake of letting Cribbs get too involved in the field position battle. We shall see!

The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".

by underdog on Sep 18, 2009 11:55 AM MDT reply actions  

Comment on the DB

twitter (from Lindsay Jones) just now:

Just got done with open locker room. I can say this: The defense is loose.

The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".

by underdog on Sep 18, 2009 12:00 PM MDT reply actions  

sorry, the Denver Post twitter

I meant. Anyway, good to hear!

The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".

by underdog on Sep 18, 2009 12:00 PM MDT up reply actions  

Did you mean Cleveland?
Establish the run. Cincy showed defensive weaknesses in the second half against the Vikings, while Denver didn’t seem to sweat against a Cincy team that had their hands on their hips trying to catch their breath in the second half.

I’m with you on your analysis on the game and one play might make the difference between winning and losing. Should be an exciting game.

by bfree2bronc on Sep 18, 2009 12:35 PM MDT reply actions  

LOL

Thanks, and fixed.

Looking at how I expect both teams to approach this game (cautious – no shoot out and good defense), I think that a big play will make the difference.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 12:49 PM MDT up reply actions  

One of the most encouraging signs last week

was that the defense, despite being on the field a lot, didn’t wear down as much as I would have expected. Either they’re better conditioned than I realized, or the first-line reserves (as opposed to the scrubs who played in preseason) are better than I thought.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 18, 2009 4:31 PM MDT up reply actions  

Consider also...

…that our guys were playing in a hot and humid environment, not the dry environment in Colorado. A few experts in the media thought this could be an issue, and Denvers practices were geared towards the early game and the heat.

At the end of the game, the Cincy team looked worn down, and our guys still looked good. I’m very well pleased with our conditioning.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 5:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

One play that stood out for me on a Moreno sweep.

I

noted two problems here. First, Denver was calling sweeps with Peyton Hillis, who is more of a downhill guy who shouldn’t be racing to the edge. But more importantly, rookie Knowshon Moreno was dancing around instead of taking his one cut and committing.

Hillis was out front leading the sweep to the right and he (IMO) went to far and looked around to see where Moreno was. Or, was it that Moreno failed to follow the lead blocker (Hillis). The play just looked wrong for some reason. The play was for no gain I believe.

by bfree2bronc on Sep 18, 2009 12:48 PM MDT reply actions  

I'm not sure which play that was.

Hillis looked like he had plays to the edge where he wasn’t supposed to cut back, and Moreno’s cut backs seemed to always be followed up with additional jukes. I thought Hillis’ problem was bad playcalling from the sideline, and Moreno’s was bad technique. Even for an old coach though, I admit that that’s not neccessarily a fair call from a comfy armchair.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 12:53 PM MDT up reply actions  

i voted

For a close win just like last week. I think cincy is a better team than Cleveland but Cleveland matches up better against denver.

"Sanity is the realization that everyone is insane to some degree." Me

by 3nS on Sep 18, 2009 1:00 PM MDT reply actions  

Agreed on each point.

Close game – Cincy a better team, but Cleve a better match-up. Good calls!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 1:02 PM MDT up reply actions  

Great analysis, HT

I have a question regarding coverages. I noticed that several sources made mention of the Broncos being in Cover 3 and using it effectively to prevent the Bengals from getting behind the defense. Any thoughts on whether that was the case, and whether you’d expect to see that (again) on Sunday?

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Doc Bear on Sep 18, 2009 1:18 PM MDT reply actions  

Wow!

I must have missed that entirely. Everything I saw was live, and I haven’t seen any playbacks (except for the final play). A lot of time, the area where the safeties are at is outside of the camera angle too. If it happened, I completely missed it (and shame on me!)

I don’t expect it at all for this game. The QB we are facing is less of a threat than Palmer, and the threat is less at WR in my opinion. We already have three excellent CBs, two solid (one legendary) safeties, and a good pass rush. In nickles, we ought to play man instead of dropping a CB back, and in 3-4 (5-2 if you prefer), we can’t afford to drop a LB back too far.

Now that I think about it, when we went prevent we WERE in 3 deep (you’ll recall that Scheff was one of the three). Perhaps that’s where it came from. But from play to play during most of the game, I don’t think we had any cover 3 shells.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 1:33 PM MDT up reply actions  

Good!

I didn’t see it either, and thought that I was missing something in a big way (wouldn’t be the first time). Perhaps the fact that they were in 3 deep on the one drive in prevent has been taken too strongly by the folks I read. Thanks for the help.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Doc Bear on Sep 18, 2009 1:47 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the clarification HT

I was wondering the same thing Bear. I was presuming 3 Deep and Cover 3 were the same thing, but didn’t feel that was correct. This was a terrific article HT. It has generated another learning opportunity and you have my thanks.

"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"We don't stop playing because we grow old; We grow old because we stop playing." -- George Bernard Shaw
Breaking jaws or the NFL in Oakland who cares? Fall on your pirate’s sword - Ponderosa

by KaptainKirk on Sep 18, 2009 7:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

I might not have been clear in my answer.

3 deep and cover 3 are the same. As I was typing my response to Bear, I couldn’t think of when the Broncos would have done such a thing. Then, “now that I think of it”, I realized that Denver did do it (3 deep / cover 3), but only for a prevent defense at a singular moment.

The confusion about what constitutes a cover defense comes from the following. “Cover 2” is not a formation – it is a system of play based on zones. It has some variants (the one most folks hear about is the Tampa 2). But cover 3 is not a system, it is a term that describes a “shell”, which means how many players are covering deep. For instance, a team may be in a quarter formation (7 d-backs) with cover three (three guys zone deep). This can become more confusing, since the players may only line up two guys deep, but drop back a third into deep coverage after the play starts. So technicaly, a “shell” isn’t a formation, but describes the type of deep coverage that will emerge when the play executes.

I didn’t want to leave you thinking that 3 deep and cover 3 are different things, but they aren’t exactly alike either. I may have 2 guys deep, but the “shell” is going to be cover 3 (when the third player drops back at the start of the play). For simplicity’s sake, I would call them the same thing at MHR, but not in a coach’s meeting.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 19, 2009 4:57 AM MDT up reply actions  

Ok. Thanks.

"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"We don't stop playing because we grow old; We grow old because we stop playing." -- George Bernard Shaw
Breaking jaws or the NFL in Oakland who cares? Fall on your pirate’s sword - Ponderosa

by KaptainKirk on Sep 19, 2009 3:23 PM MDT up reply actions  

TV Coverage

One thing that distresses me about TV coverage is that they focus on the ball. They have to. So I can’t complain too much. But I would love to be able to see the whole field so I can actually see what the defensive backfield is doing. Sorry HT. I’m just griping.

by Endzone on Sep 18, 2009 2:28 PM MDT up reply actions  

We share the same gripe.

I’ve written about it before. Good call!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 2:39 PM MDT up reply actions  

they only seem to mention this for basketball games in denver but...

… do you think the high altitude will affect the game? I don’t remember if it was an issue last year but we won a lot of close games against good teams at home.

by march20 on Sep 18, 2009 1:24 PM MDT reply actions  

Altitude and effects.

Altitude only has an effect if you wear down the other team. Passing games allow the other team time to catch their breath.

At home last year we threw the ball early and often. There was plenty of time for opposing defenses to recover. However, the classic Broncos teams used to run the ball early and often, and other teams burned out in the fourth quarter. Many folks thought that our RBs got stronger as the game went along, but the truth was that the opposing defensive lines wore out.

So yes, the altitude has an effect, but only if we run the ball at defenses.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 1:36 PM MDT up reply actions  

Then expect us to ram it down their throats early and often

I can’t remember what interview it was, but I remember McD mentioning the altitude and using it to our advantage. I’m sure he’s very aware of the best strategy for that, too. :-)

by Colorado_Kitten on Sep 18, 2009 1:57 PM MDT up reply actions  

Perhaps this will be...

…when we see the things in running that “nobody has seen before” we keep hearing about.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 2:08 PM MDT up reply actions  

Oh, I hope so

It’s been a long wait for that one. A 2-0 start would serve us incredibly well.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Doc Bear on Sep 18, 2009 3:05 PM MDT up reply actions  

I'm hoping for 3-0

Not to look ahead, but I really, REALLY want that 3rd one.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 3:21 PM MDT up reply actions  

Altitude and home field advantae

I also get the distinct impression from the talk during camp and preseason that this year the team is running more and simply working harder to get into condition. Last few years, it seemed like we gave away our home field/altitude advantage with less than acceptable conditioning…. they got winded, we got tired.

by idahobronc on Sep 20, 2009 1:52 AM MDT up reply actions  

On altitude...

…when I left the Regular Army for the Army Reserve, I had to do a PT test in San Antonio (basically sea level) one week, and a follow up in Denver the next. I was in the best physical condition of my life. My Denver run, over 2 miles, was 5 minutes slower than my San Antonio run. I thought I might die.

Altitude is huge, which begs the question: Why hasn’t home field mattered at all the last few years. I think if Denver plays as physically as they did in Cincy, it will be a huge factor in this game.

by PredominantlyOrange on Sep 18, 2009 2:23 PM MDT up reply actions  

2 points

Why home field hasn’t mattered.

First, the stadium isn’t as loud. Second, I wrote this some moments ago…

Altitude only has an effect if you wear down the other team. Passing games allow the other team time to catch their breath.

At home last year we threw the ball early and often. There was plenty of time for opposing defenses to recover. However, the classic Broncos teams used to run the ball early and often, and other teams burned out in the fourth quarter. Many folks thought that our RBs got stronger as the game went along, but the truth was that the opposing defensive lines wore out.

Second point: Ft. Carson used to allow a few weeks for soldiers to allow their blood metabolism to adjust to the appropriate levels to perform on the APFT test. I’m astonished that your post in Denver didn’t allow for the adjustment period required for Carson.

Good stuff PO

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 2:43 PM MDT up reply actions  

thought about the Stadium

and how it isn’t as loud. Perhaps a little of that is due to the newer design, but honestly, that stadium can rock it if the fans are in it. I mean look at the preseason vs the Bears. The fans were screaming at Cutler so loud the cameras were shaking – it was cool to see. We have it in us, we just need to bring it!

Hmmm…maybe if we can hook a mic up to Dawks during his pregame pep-talk to the D…let the fans hear it, too.

by Colorado_Kitten on Sep 18, 2009 2:56 PM MDT up reply actions  

+1

The design makes a difference…but the fans haven’t been bringing the fervor.

I don’t want breakaway speed. I want break-some-poor-fool-as-I-bowl-you-over power getting 6 yards off a play that should have been stopped for 2 at most.

by sadaraine on Sep 18, 2009 2:57 PM MDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

It is a little of both. The design certainly doesn’t help. But a very, VERY motivated crowd can make up for some of the deficiency. Watching the stadium rock when Cutler got booed almost brought tears to my eyes. I’m not one for booing, not even Cutler, but the unity was a beautiful thing, as was the rocking cameras.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 3:23 PM MDT up reply actions  

Yes!

It brought back memories.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 5:04 PM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

It was Fitzimmons AMC...

…and lets just say that the transition from regular to reserve is awkward in many ways. For example, when I reported, they all yucked it up because of my military formalities. I was wierd, so I doubt they put much thought into things like altitude change.

by PredominantlyOrange on Sep 18, 2009 3:15 PM MDT up reply actions  

My dad used to be the administrator of Fitzimmons.

Is it reserve now?

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 3:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

You're most welcome.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 2:08 PM MDT up reply actions  

M-m-m-m, chalk talk day.

Love it.

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Sep 18, 2009 1:42 PM MDT reply actions  

Thanks counsel!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 2:08 PM MDT up reply actions  

No, thank you!

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Sep 18, 2009 4:45 PM MDT up reply actions  

Great Post Again - Thanks

HT – On the play last week when Champ TIpped the ball and Woodyard intercepted – what coverage was that. Is Woodyard skilled enough to cover one of the Cleveland TEs?

To accomplish great things, we must not only act, but also DREAM; not only plan, but also BELIEVE.

by Broncobh on Sep 18, 2009 2:06 PM MDT reply actions  

I'd have to see the play.

If you (or someone) can shoot me a link, I’ll take a look.

I do think Woodyard can cover, and I think he’s a good choice to bring in when we expect TEs out on routes.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 2:10 PM MDT up reply actions  

Yes he can

Woodyard dropped back in zone coverage on that play if I remember right…then left his guy when the ball went in the air.

I don’t want breakaway speed. I want break-some-poor-fool-as-I-bowl-you-over power getting 6 yards off a play that should have been stopped for 2 at most.

by sadaraine on Sep 18, 2009 2:58 PM MDT up reply actions  

That play was an excellent illustration

of Woodyard’s ability to be where the ball is and make a play. Like Bailey, he’s a big-play machine. It was beautiful seeing him and Champ collaborate in that turnover. That’s teamwork!

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 18, 2009 4:42 PM MDT up reply actions  

There was a Bengals receiver in the area at the time.

I remember thinking he might be able to grab the tip. But it looked like Woodyard was faster and more aggressive going to the ball.

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Sep 18, 2009 4:47 PM MDT up reply actions  

I had the same feeling

I think Woodyard getting to the ball first had a lot to do with the fact that, like other players who turn out to be better than expected, the game isn’t too fast for him. He sees and reacts incredibly fast.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 18, 2009 4:57 PM MDT up reply actions  

If I was a receiver...

…I’m not sure I would want to fight for a tipped ball against Woodyard. Good thing I’m not a receiver though. lol

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 5:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

It was ochocinco

He went after it and got smacked to the ground by Woodyard just after Woodyard caught the ball. I rewound that play about a dozen times : )

People can use statistics to prove anything, 87% of all people know that.

by c_style on Sep 18, 2009 9:45 PM MDT up reply actions  

Love those plays.

I’d rather be a hammer than a nail and all that…

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 19, 2009 4:58 AM MDT up reply actions  

glad it was CHAD JOHNSON

 that got knock on his rear end can’t stand that guy

by papasteven on Sep 19, 2009 8:52 AM MDT up reply actions  

what i saw

what was great was woodyard covering 2x the distance that ocho covered to get to the ball, plowed between 2 cinci players, and gave ocho a good knock after grabbing the ball. absolute determination, reminded me of a certain steeler with crazy hair…

"I want this team to be tough, smart and prepared to play well under pressure...Everybody here in this organization is going to be held accountable to do their job — their piece of the puzzle to make this team a competitor for a championship every season." J-Mac

by Jay Fin Anderson on Sep 18, 2009 8:12 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks, hoosier!

I always appreciate it when the MHR staff gives me something new to think about. I’m not convinced that the altitude in Denver doesn’t play a bigger factor in our home games than some folks will admit; but I’ve always thought Denver could play to that advantage by calling roll-outs, sweeps and/or long passes in the first couple of series, and then go back to those plays in the second half. Seems to me that if Denver can get their opponents gasping for breath the battle is half won already.

by 42n81 on Sep 18, 2009 2:27 PM MDT reply actions  

I'd just like to see bruising runs up the gut.

Have the OL and the RB just smack into the defense. In the second half, they could continue the run with more power, or bring in Moreno to switch up the tempo. Either way, I would love to see more running (and more cowbell).

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 2:51 PM MDT up reply actions  

I've got a fever...

…and the only cure is more cowbell!!!!

People can use statistics to prove anything, 87% of all people know that.

by c_style on Sep 18, 2009 2:56 PM MDT up reply actions  

You've got it!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 3:00 PM MDT up reply actions  

Wow!

Good find!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 3:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

I agree with 42n81 that altitude is or ought to be a factor*

I think what countered it the last few years, in addition to general defensive ineptitude, is Jay appears to play better on the road than at home, perhaps another indication that he doesn’t handle pressure well. The Buffalo game was a specific instance of a general pattern.

*for the reasons HT gave, in addition to crowd support, etc.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 18, 2009 4:52 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks, HT

One question: Is it just me, or did you notice how much difficultly the Cleveland ILB’s had factoring on the edges/outside against Minnesota. I think we are facing a team with serious problems range problems at ILB and with a secondary that might not be real strong in run support (sort of like recent Broncos teams). I see a big day for KM, Buckhalter, and probably Graham/Scheffler. I think if Denver plays just decently on offense, Cleveland is way overmatched…and Denver could smoke them.

by PredominantlyOrange on Sep 18, 2009 2:30 PM MDT reply actions  

Edge running

OLBs in a 3-4 should reach the edge before a RB. Minnesota’s RB is exceptional and fast, but the Browns should have gotten some containment. On the other hand, I like Denver better up the middle with the one cut.

The Browns can stop runs up the center, so a good compromise might be to challenge that middle early and, if there’s no gold, to challange the edges with our new screens.

The chess match should be a good one.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 3:05 PM MDT up reply actions  

I didn't see the Cleveland game

but I wonder how many of those runs were off-tackle, in which the DE or OLB is blocked towards the outside in order to open the hole? That’s where I think we’re most vulnerable, at least on the weakside. Although the new scheme minimizes it, Doom’s most conspicuous weakness is that he can be pushed around when he’s holding his ground rather than attacking.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 18, 2009 5:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

It sure helps Doom that we have plenty of guys up front to plug the gaps, but it isn’t an absolute help either. Cleveland may try running weakside this game, and that bears close watching.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 5:08 PM MDT up reply actions  

Altitude attitude

I didn’t know passes gave the defense time to catch their breath. Seems to me that if a CB has to chase Marshall or Royal 50 yards down the field a couple of times in the first series [even if the ball doesn’t go to them] that the advantage would have to go to Denver.

by 42n81 on Sep 18, 2009 2:35 PM MDT reply actions  

What do you think?

Would it take more energy to push a 300 pound guy 3 yards with resistance or to run 20 yards.

"Sanity is the realization that everyone is insane to some degree." Me

by 3nS on Sep 18, 2009 3:00 PM MDT up reply actions  

The real question.

Why does it take more energy for a D-lineman to play against the rush rather than the pass?

"Sanity is the realization that everyone is insane to some degree." Me

by 3nS on Sep 18, 2009 3:18 PM MDT up reply actions  

My answer is below...

…but in short, because they are 1) reacting instead of initiating, and 2) because they are taking hits.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 3:26 PM MDT up reply actions  

Here's the thinking.

The CBs will get worn down either way. Whether the play is run or pass, the CBs have a lot on their plates, but they are also lighter than most LBs and DLs, so they can go longer.

The key is the DL (primarily) then the LBs. On pass plays, the DL is making the aggressive move, and the OL is trying to hold their ground. That’s bad enough. But on run plays, a few things happen that makes it worse for the DL than it is in pass plays.

First, they are taking hits from the OL and any run blockers. It is like body blows to a boxer in that it takes a toll. Second, the lineman is trying to fight out of the block, and get to a runner. Whereas pass rushing is a straight ahead motion, run stopping involves a lot of twisting and lateral movement. Sports kinesiology tells us that this is a greater strain. Third, CBs often have to limit themselves to one player, while the DLman has to watch for the runner, and watch out for himself (especialy against the kind of blocks one faces in zone blocking).

But the defense DOES suffer overall (including the CBs) on long drives. Here again, reacting is tougher than initiating. The WR knows what is coming, while the CB has to constantly adjust for whatever the WR does. It is much harder to keep up with a receiver than to be a receiver.

Good thinking 42!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 3:18 PM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

Thanks

"Sanity is the realization that everyone is insane to some degree." Me

by 3nS on Sep 18, 2009 3:44 PM MDT up reply actions  

it also seems to be a matter of T.O.P.

passing plays eat up less time.

"I want this team to be tough, smart and prepared to play well under pressure...Everybody here in this organization is going to be held accountable to do their job — their piece of the puzzle to make this team a competitor for a championship every season." J-Mac

by Jay Fin Anderson on Sep 18, 2009 8:16 PM MDT up reply actions  

Altitude

One of the things I think we have really lacked at home which would be hugely beneficial [and not just at home] would be a small package of no-huddle. Nothing drains you faster in this league than a whole series done in a no huddle package. Just watch Rogers try to stay on the field with a no huddle package.

Do it Josh, Do it!

A truth can only be expressed and enveloped in words if it is one-sided. Everything that is thought and expressed in words is one-sided, only half the truth; it all lacks totality, completeness, unity.

by Todd Jewell on Sep 18, 2009 2:53 PM MDT reply actions  

What an interesting thought

The no-huddle hs been one of Orton’s strengths since Purdue – that might be a great way to say, “Welcome to the Mile Hi City!”

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Doc Bear on Sep 18, 2009 3:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

I expect it at some point.

The no huddle makes too much sense to leave it alone. The only thing we’re waiting for (in my opinion) is for Orton to get comfortable enough in the offense to put one into play. A pro level no-huddle is a scary complex monster, and Orton is a very sharp player. But it won’t come until the coach thinks he has the new system down.

And when it comes, it will rock!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 3:20 PM MDT up reply actions  

I guess I do have an additional question [damn me!] — although you may not be the one who has an answer, I know someone here will…

What is involved in the no huddle? They still call the plays in, so is it the QB who has the issue or is it the other 10 players? He has to do some form of hand signals right?

A truth can only be expressed and enveloped in words if it is one-sided. Everything that is thought and expressed in words is one-sided, only half the truth; it all lacks totality, completeness, unity.

by Todd Jewell on Sep 18, 2009 3:26 PM MDT up reply actions  

It can be done in several ways.

Some teams have the plays set up in advance, without any need for playcalling during the drive. In such cases, the QB may make adjustments when he gets to the line. Those adjustments may be audible, hand, and in some cases, even feet (no, I’m not joking).

When the plays are called in, they can come by helmet radio or by signal, but these are fraught with drawbacks.

Most teams use a combination of pre-planned plays and side-line adjustments by signal.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 4:03 PM MDT up reply actions  

No Huddle Mismatches

Once the offense gets clicking, I think that a no huddle could be huge for the offense with creating mismatches. The same group of players could have a power running game or finesse offense on any play. This could really work to our advantage based on the defensive personnel.

I have seen Peyton Manning do this in situations where there are mismatches, but still milk the clock for his defense. I completely expect to see this later in the season.

by DieselDan on Sep 18, 2009 3:58 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks HT, good points.

I’m not sure of the adjective “phenom” in front of Alphonso Smith and “great” in front of our pass rush. I do think it’s improved, but I’d like to see more before I’m comfortable with more than “good”. Do you think we are to that point yet?

by NDbronco on Sep 18, 2009 3:30 PM MDT reply actions  

I liked what I saw from Smith...a lot.

If phenom is premature, I’m betting its only by a little…

by PredominantlyOrange on Sep 18, 2009 3:33 PM MDT up reply actions  

Maybe it's this week...

and then we’ll be referring to him as “Phenomso Smith”

by NDbronco on Sep 18, 2009 3:40 PM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

Nice!

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 18, 2009 5:10 PM MDT up reply actions  

Based on his first week...

…he looks great. That could all change, but so far I’m stoked.

The pass rush is harder to gauge. For me, I’ve become so used to inferior defensive lines that ANY pass rush looks good. Still, the pressures were there time and again, and the season is still young. I think we are in a very good position defensively.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 4:05 PM MDT up reply actions  

My game outlook is slightly more Orange & Blue shaded

Denver Defense v Browns Offense:
As noted, the strength of our base 52 is stopping the run; I have no reason to believe we won’t be effective with our front seven. Jamal Lewis is not elite, and we have no reason to fear him.
Quinn was sacked five times last week, and Denver’s pass rush has shown it can be effective also. That being the case, the Browns likely will often need to leave a TE in to block. I don’t see Nolan being afraid to directly match Champ against Braylon. With that the case, it would allow one safety to cheat over to Cribbs’ side while the other safety (likely Dawkins) would be free to run stop, cover TE’s, and blitz. It may sound odd that I think Cribbs will have more of a “double team” than Edwards, but I just think it makes sense. Not saying Edwards can’t catch a ball man’d up against Bailey, but I am saying it is safe and Bailey won’t get burned deep. That should leave a safety to wreck havoc up front.

Denver Offense v Browns Defense:
This may be more based on gut feeling than logic, but I’m not taking Kyle’s week one performance into my week two thoughts. Regardless of last week, Kyle’s strength is reading and taking what the defense gives him. Yes, running the ball early and effectively is crucial. But I also expect to see the dink and dunk style, quick passing offense, that we began to see in the preseason. Last weeks pressure is long gone, it’s week two. Kyle was largely brought here so that when the Browns blitz, he’ll often recognize from where in his pre-snap read, and quickly throw the ball to that missing link in the defense. That coupled with the run should eventually slow the pressure and open up the vertical threat of our talented WR’s.

Just my own humble opinions.

by Alex on Sep 18, 2009 3:52 PM MDT reply actions  

Oh and Rec'd

Great read! Thanks for the breakdown!

by Alex on Sep 18, 2009 3:57 PM MDT up reply actions  

Good breakdown to you too!

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 4:11 PM MDT up reply actions  

Very good thoughts.

If I had a quible, it would be that I would NOT double Cribbs. The reason is this -

Fast WRs that are deep threats are deadly in a foot race. They have a better chance of outrunning two DBs (a CB and a SAF) than getting past a deep posted safety. I would have the safety on Cribbs side prepared to drop back anytime Cribbs shows a burst ahead, with the other safety ready for either a slant from Cribbs or a play on his own side. Doubles are best against receivers who are great route runners IF neither is a particularly dangerous deep threat. I would place Cribbs CB in man in off coverage for much of the game, and take chances with the short passes. Just me.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 4:10 PM MDT up reply actions  

Wow!

That is a great analysis and will really affect how I look at the defensive backs as the game progresses. This kind of stuff is what makes these threads so good.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 18, 2009 5:15 PM MDT up reply actions  

I enjoy writing the stories...

…but the give and take in the comments is where the real meat is (in my opinion). Our membership is the sharpest in the sports community.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 5:21 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thank you

I surely defer to you here, as I’m sure your ‘how-to’ knowledge is greatly superior to my own. Although, my basic premise here remains that Denver doesn’t need four db’s to cover Edwards and Cribbs. Perhaps I’m being arrogant, but I simply don’t respect them deep against our secondary. I believe that will help when they use their TE’s.

by Alex on Sep 18, 2009 4:20 PM MDT reply actions  

I may have some knowledge...

…but the conclusions I draw are still only opinions, and no more valid than anyone else’s.

But I agree with your premise (and my only quibble is a minor one). I’ll take our defensive backfield over the Cleveland passing game too, and I’ll also do it with each CB in 1:1 coverage with our safeties back.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 18, 2009 4:25 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the insight

I’ll be sure to watch for how they cover who back there=)

by Alex on Sep 18, 2009 4:28 PM MDT reply actions  

I look forward to the day...

I can read a Denver v Cleveland article without hearing you trash Cutler (a Bear)… Sheesh!

by Whidbey Bronco on Sep 18, 2009 5:03 PM MDT reply actions  

I loved reading this spock, nice work!

Imagination is more important than knowledge. A. Einstein

by Ponderosa on Sep 18, 2009 10:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks

Glad you liked it.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 19, 2009 12:24 AM MDT up reply actions  

McD

Answering your question, I think McD had a definite plan about the defense: hire Nolan and other 3-4 coaches; retain those players that fit a 3-4 defensive scheme; instill passion and dedication with proven leaders (BDawk).

by Endzone on Sep 18, 2009 11:00 PM MDT up reply actions  

Good answer

As for my question about where Woodyard lined up before his pick, I just got through studying that play at length. It was third and 8 and we were in a 4-3 and Woodyard was the Sam. As Palmer dropped back DJ (playing Mike) drifts forward and Woodyard stays where he is, tracking the action. As Palmer releases he sees an uncovered player to his right (the offense’s left flat) and heads in that direction. DJ is charging towards Palmer, although there’s a lot of bodies between him and Palmer and he’s too late anyway. I’m wondering if he shouldn’t have been picking up the guy in the flat. Once he sees where the ball is going Woodyard heads in that direction. As the ball pops up Bailey goes to the ground, Ocho Cinco looks around and then finds the ball and goes for it. He looks like he’s about to leap in the air to pull it down. But Woodyard is bearing down from the opposite direction and it looks like at the last split second Ocho Cinco shies away from the collision and Woodyard grabs it and crashes into him. His momentum carries him to the ground and he immediately gets up to run but is tackled before he gets going. The ball was coming down over Ocho Cinco’s shoulder so he didn’t have as good an angle as Woodyard and might have misjudged it, but the way I read their body language it looked like Woodyard was absolutely focussed and undeterred by the impending head-on collision, and Ocho Cinco flinched.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 18, 2009 11:31 PM MDT up reply actions  

I love that description of the play.

It reads like a first hand account of a classic battle. Tell me, will we be fighting in the shade of the Persian arrows?

: )

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 19, 2009 5:29 AM MDT up reply actions  

Great comment; worthy of a post.

One point on how I define the OLB / DE…

I don’t see any of our “DEs” truly making a transition to OLB. I think that they are primarily DEs (both in alignment and in their own historic identity as individuals). However, much like any lineman who may pull a coverage duty (zone blitz), they may act as a LB here and there.

You are correct about the movement from the old 3-4 alignment towards a newer (though it was done ages ago) 5-2 look. Most teams, whether they use “true” DEs or OLBs have been using them at the line. I see this as part of the overall transformation taking effect in the League with the phasing out of the FB position and the emphasis on TEs. In an odd way, the League is returning to its roots as it evolves.

Wonderful stuff Spock. I’m glad you’re the First Officer on our ship, and not with the bad guys. : )

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 19, 2009 5:11 AM MDT up reply actions  

I had to read that one twice...

I do like the idea that McD chose the defense to match our personnel, as well then I suppose the type of defender available in this years draft… this would make me happily wrong about a few of his decisions. I’d expect a smart coach/GM team to do this with any team they inherited with any measure of core talent. Some big names come to mind who’ve done this successfully.

“What, then, makes them linebackers rather than linemen, or vice versa? One of your answers seemed to suggest it was a matter of inherent identity, that if linemen are playing the position it’s really a 5-2, that if it’s linebackers it’s a 3-4.”

That one always gets me too, if you don’t know the players by position, you wouldn’t know the difference. Or I should say I wouldn’t know the difference. Size?

It seems to me in this day of such complexity in defense, the day of uni-dimensional defenders is more and more …ending. I’d still take a D Thomas on our team any day but unless you know a guy is going to dominate, he better be able to not only drop back in coverage but also be smart enough to know when.

by Whidbey Bronco on Sep 19, 2009 8:28 AM MDT up reply actions  

Hi HT, I am normally with you, but we are not seeing the same things here....

I look at it this way:

Our D Line vs. Browns O Line. Advantage Denver.
Our Secondary vs. Cleveland WR/TE. Advantage Denver. Our LB’s are fast and agressive…and dont think that Davis wont be playing with a chip on his shoulder.
Special Teams. Advantage Browns…but we have some good returners as well that are not mentioned in article. Plus, at altitude, Kern should be kicking into end zone or out of bounds EVERY time that limits Cribbs.
Cleveland D Line vs. Our O Line. Advantage Denver. We had a down day last weekend and were still decent. At altitude, with our movement against Rogers I will take us every time. With KM, Buck and Hillis we should be relentless and keep making the D Line of the Browns move and tackle.
Our WR’s/ TE’s vs Browns secondary. That should be a no brainer. We are far superior.
Which leads me to the battle of the QB’s. Brady Quinn is not good….and what he did against our last years defense has NO bearing what so ever. With pressure he will get killed and throw picks agianst Champ, Goodman, Smith (he will get his first INT) , Dawkins, Hill and McBath. We will bring in many looks in secondary and ball hawk.
Kyle Orton we average last week…but threw NO interceptions. I have a feeling he is going to be the QB we saw at Purdue as the Browns secondary is set up for the picking…regardless of pass rush.
This SHOULD be a game we DOMINATE…which always worries me.
BUT…this is a new team with a new attitude.
Playing at altitude, with plenty of pressure, I see 3 turnovers, I see Orton dinking. dunking AND taking some shots…and to see out running game bruise the Browns.
Denver by 10.
Thanks as always HT…but if we cant dominate this team, we are in for a long season!

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.

by boydy2669 on Sep 18, 2009 9:21 PM MDT reply actions  

I think we agree.

I would rate the squad match-ups as you do, with the advantage to us in each category. In terms of just “who is better”, I give us the advantage. In terms of how each match-up looks, I see room for a close game.

For instance, I’ll take our OL over pretty much any team’s DL. I also thunk highly of our RBs. But the Browns specialize in stuffing the run (watch what they did to Adrian Peterson for the first half). They have a very good NT to anchor the formation, and they plug the gaps extremely well. And as much as I think of the Denver RBs, we haven’t seen the run game click yet in a regular game. I expect us to do better, but it isn’t a lock.

I’m expecting the type of game we play (and Cleveland) to be one of ball control and defense. For that reason, regardless of who the better team is (and I agree that it is Denver), I expect the game to be close on the score board (whether it is in stats or not). Sometimes the best way to win a game isn’t to dominate, but to play carefuly and try to ensure the win.

Here’s an example. I may be a much better chess player than my opponent, and could (perhaps) wipe the board with him. Depending on factors (such as “I need the win to ensure that I win the tournament”) I might choose to set aside my fancy sacrifices and other tactical flourishes and keep the game at a level where I take no chances. To others, it may look like I’m having a hard time, but in my mind, I’m keeping any dangerous variables out of the picture.

In the case of Cleveland, I wouldn’t say that they are inferior and we are domineering. I still have us pegged as an 8-8 team this year (though much, MUCH improved and getting better). But I would agree that I give us the edge in pretty much every category.

Winning by 10 sounds about right to me, and in my opinion is somewhere between close and moderate. (I voted close).

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 19, 2009 5:25 AM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks HT, appreciate the reply. great Chalk Talk as always my friend!

Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.

by boydy2669 on Sep 19, 2009 6:50 AM MDT up reply actions  

Gotta love every bit of that...

I’ve got my hopes mile high this week, another win (especially one we ‘should’ win) I believe would really go far to put the team on the same page!

I’ll ignore that last line. Too much like the thoughts in the back of my mind, nagging me.

by Whidbey Bronco on Sep 19, 2009 8:36 AM MDT up reply actions  

Great questions, great discussion

I can tell you a very few things, so I’ll stay to the stuff that can be researched. When McDaniels first came here, he made some general remarks. Over time, he was more specific. With regard to the 3-4, he has some firm ideas.

To condense, he believes that the 3-4 is a better system. there are a lot of versions and a lot of hybrids, but the overall methodology, according to McD, is that it’s just a far more versatile system. It can encompass the 5-2, “Oklahoma” variants, the Phillips, zone blitz, etc. McDaniels was specific, though – he thinks that you can do more and hide more of what you’re doing, by using the 3-4. I know that HT likes the 4-3 and I’m not assuming that I know anywhere close to enough to have an opinion one way or the other – I’m just the messenger on this one, but he made so many comments to this effect that it seems pretty clear.

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Doc Bear on Sep 18, 2009 9:59 PM MDT reply actions  

Great stuff as always Bear.

The 3-4 is indeed a flexible creature. I prefer the 4-3, but not because it is any better. One of my axioms is that each system and even formation isn’t “better” than another because they each have weaknesses and strengths. It comes down to who runs their own program better.

In my case, I’ve always been “defensive” minded, whether in football, chess, or even studying military strategy. I kind of prefer static defenses (holed up in a bunker, forcing the enemy to come to me in the open). I don’t know how this developed in my strategic upbringing, but I see it in several areas.

In chess, I like to let my opponent come at me and to let him make the first mistake. I don’t like to force games, and I prefer closed postions (few captures, cluttered positions, locked up pawns, low manouverability, etc). I prefer strategy over tactics, and most observers would call this boring. I prefer to strangle my opponent rather than to chop of his head. (My favorite historical player was Victor Petrosian. People hated his style because it wasn’t “fancy”. But he just wore down his opponents).

Militarily, I would rather be Nato (with reinforced pockets of resistance) than Warsaw (pouring troops into an exploited gap). [Current doctrine would have the allies much more mobile than the cold wat plans for the defense of western Europe].

So the 4-3 fits me. The 3-4 is flexible, and much more fun to watch in action. But I like the idea of plugging the gaps (with four linemen), and protecting my LBs. My blitzes are rare, but I don’t disguise them – I challenge my opponent to stop what he sees. Most folks don’t watch the trenches, because the “real” excitement is where the ball is. But coaches watch the trenches more than anything. For fans, the 4-3 may not be as exciting because so much of it is focused up front.

Which brings us to the 5-2. It has something for everyone. For me, I like the strong line and the freedom of the 2 LBs (who have extreme protection). For most folks though, the extreme flexibility (is that DE going to be a DE this play, or an OLB?) makes the formation more fun to watch.

I’ll put it like this. If I were coaching, I’d probably run a 4-3 (with the right personnel of course) because it fits my view of how to defend a field the best. As a fan, I would rather watch a 3-4. If I had a basketball team, I might want an NBA team. But I’d rather watch the Globetrotters. In football, the 3-4, 4-3, and even the 5-2 and 46s are all good base formations. One isn’t better than another, though each has good and bad points. So while I prefer the 4-3 as fitting my own strategic personality, I very much enjoy the Broncos adopting something that is more entertaining to watch. For our personnel, I think we will find it is much more effective than the 4-3 has been too.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 19, 2009 5:52 AM MDT up reply actions  

I reckon the reason the browns are a "hard team to figure out"

Is simply the new coach/new systems issue… It remains to be seen which of the several BB children out in the big world proves his lessons learned first.

by Whidbey Bronco on Sep 19, 2009 8:48 AM MDT reply actions  

Thanks for the learning opportunity

Once again my knowledge level just improved. I love reading your post as I learn so much from them

I will give this one a Highly Rec’d

by papasteven on Sep 19, 2009 8:54 AM MDT reply actions  

Thanks Papa

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 19, 2009 2:30 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks, HT.

As usual, I feel like I’ve been through a master class in football strategy. I should thank you for my job security as well. I am a junior high band director. My principal (boss) was Brian Urlacher’s HS coach. It’s tough to earn the respect of a coach-turned-administrator in many cases, but we have one commonality: we’re both Denver fans! With everything I have learned about football strategy on this site from you and other contributors, I can watch games more effectively, and I can hang in a conversation with a real football strategist. I have a great relationship with my boss, and I owe it in part to pieces like Chalk Talk. Plus I just love this stuff. It’s so interesting. (Insert obligatory Cutler dig here).

-Harvey J. Neptune

"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi

by HarvJNep2n on Sep 19, 2009 12:28 PM MDT reply actions  

Allow me to dumb things down a bit

We always beat the Browns. I predict Jeremiah Castille will force an Ernest Byner fumble.

Some rise by sin, others by virtue fall. - Shakespeare "Measure for Measure"

by BuddyHollysPilot on Sep 19, 2009 2:34 PM MDT reply actions  

Very nice!

I could have saved a lot of time if I’de put it that well!

: )

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Sep 19, 2009 2:42 PM MDT up reply actions  

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