When Is a Pass, Not a Pass?

Isn’t YAC a part of the game? I can’t understand why people want to take that out of Orton’s stat line. If you did that for the other quarterbacks it be the same. In the MNF game Peyton threw a pass to Clark that was between 20+ yards that went for, what, 80. There was also the game winning play. So I guess those shouldn’t count either. What I’d like to know is how often quarterbacks attempt 30+ passes threw the air and the comp% of those passes. I think that be interesting.

The immaculate reception that put the the Steelers in the Super Bowl, which they won that doesn’t count does it? The longer the ball is in the air the greater the risk of being picked off. Go Orton!

I may have been one of the people you had in mind regarding Stokely’s luck, but if so, I first of all apologize for getting your dander up and secondly, I would contend that you misinterpreted my point. Of course the play counts and it should – there will probably be a play down the road where Orton and the Broncs are caught on the other side of that luck coin – these things tend to even out over time. My only point was that I don’t think anyone should get caught up in these selective statistical things regarding Orton’s YPC or anything else, particularly after just two games. I think the guy’s played pretty darn well and I admit to not having much confidence in him going into the season based on his play in the preseason. But he made some nice throws this past weekend and if he keeps progressing like he has over these past two games, this offense is going to be something else – I really don’t think we’ve scratched the surface yet. Let’s have fun with it and worry about the only statistic that really matters – wins! Go Broncs!

I’ve heard too often about our ‘fluke’ win in week 1 already…

A.) We got a win out of it.

B.) We (and Kyle and Brandon more specifically) now have the record for the longest pass play for a TD, from scrimmage, in the last minute of a regular season game. That’s a bad a$$ record to have (period—>).

C.) I don’t expect your average football fan (even Bronco fan) to know that Our team practices tip drills and things like that, but ‘things like that’ are actually well prepared for.

The worst is, when for instance, one of Our receivers (memories from past games, don’t want to recall specifics), misses and tips a catchable ball that ends up turning into an INT and losing the game for us, and the QB takes the noticeable bad stat for it…. Therefore the ‘bad press’ as well…

Anyway, I guess you got me goin’ too LoL – but I like what Donkhead said as well, I don’t think we’ve scratched the surface of seeing the potential that this wonderful team we know as the 2009 Denver Broncos, possesses.

I doubt even the logic of your rant (and it IS logical) will change the minds of some of those that disagree with you. There are those that simply wish to have a QB that “looks good”. Winning percentage will not outweigh the need to be able to brag about the strong arm of the QB, especially since for many fans the QB position is the one (or one of just a few positions, including the RB and receivers) that they actually watch during the game. I believe the difference we are discussing here is the difference in what brings satisfaction to those that really view the game as a team sport (as you do), and those that say those words but really are attending to mostly a small group of “skill” positions. Due to their attention to primarily on these skill position players, I believe they tend to view the rest of the team as only supporting characters for the particular reality TV they are watching…… to them, the style team we are building would lack the form of entertainment they are seeking. To us, our reality show involves the function of the whole team, including the trenches, the coaches, the schemes, etc. Thus, it is no different than several people going to a movie and disagreeing about how much they enjoyed it. Each side has the right to look for the form of entertainment and satisfaction from the team that best suits their view. The only way I see for those that are not enjoying the show we are now seeing is either to 1) get caught up in a REALLY good winning percentage over several seasons, 2) to change views by using the MHR cast of educators to broaden their viewpoint, OR 3) to continue to cast doubt on the present QB hoping to get replace KO with somebody that can do all of it ….be exciting, strong-armed, with great escape moves to keep a play alive, make excellent decisions to protect against turnovers……….but you know, even Elway, the best at most of those that I have ever seen, did not always protect the ball. I suppose a fourth option would be to change channels, but it is really hard for a fan to change their allegiance to their team. I myself see some conflicting arguments from those that want a strong arm QB but then during Raiders week deride Al Davis’ view of a vertical passing game…. what really is the difference? At any rate, I always find myself trying to understand the motives of those with whom I am disagreeing, but most times finding out a long time later that I didn’t even come close to understanding them, so maybe I better close my own rant here.
 BTW, Rec’d and thanks for the thought-provoking read!!

having watched the cleveland game again, i keyed in on the passes that didnt connect.

now, i am not a note taker, so i can only give an impression, not actual stats, but my opinion of ortons play changed a bit after the re-watching. if the ball was over or underthrown, most of the time it was aproduct of the qb being smart with the ball; for exaple, throwing high because of a LB jumping the route, or throwing onto the turf 3 times in a row because of weakside pressure and solid coverage (why risk a fumble, injury, or int just on the chance you could get a rec, when an incomplete pass in that situation still gives you a good chance at 3 points?)

i like the way orton manages a game, and i like how he is settling in and distributing the ball. hopefully the progress continues and the routes get a little more consistent.

It’s because they have to justify the anger for something that didn’t go exactly their way. Like little children when you tell them no and they throw a tantrum….wah wah wah…[stomping feet] I want it though [crying about cutler]…why can’t I have it???? Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah waaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh…

Can’t wait ’till Sunday.

what is, not what could have been. It’s dangerous territory for people to start handpicking whether stats count or not because of luck, or chance or other mitigating factors. Every single play has mitigating factors outside the pure control of the players; maybe the d-line trips on the rush, maybe the ref misses an obvious hold, maybe the WR ran a poor route that coincided with a poor through to end up a catch—so much happens on the field, that there is no such thing as a controlled stat. Sometimes chance plays a big role, sometimes not. Over a sustained period of time however, luck stops being such an important factor; if the ball bounces one way one time, it has as much chance the next time to bounce the other way.

I understand your frustration Bshrout. We can play the “if” game all day, but it would be nothing more than a pointless exercise. So Orton’s pass being caught by Stokley shouldn’t count because it was a lucky play? Well, what about Orton being drafted by the Bears, being forced to play behind a porous offensive line, being asked to play a style of offense that didn’t fit his strengths, having no receivers to throw to? That sounds like a lot of unlucky breaks to me. In fact, if luck evens out, then those four years of being trapped in Chicago should earn Orton at least a full season of tipped passes for touchdowns. Right?

Nice thoughts B.

is that both safeties took themselves out of position, going for the big hit on Marshall, leaving Stokely with a clear path to the end zone. And that sounds like poor coaching to me.

Another reason, I think, that people complain about Orton’s arm strength is that all we’ve heard from Bears fans is that opposing defenses stacked the line with 8 in the box to stop the run, daring Orton to throw over them, and he couldn’t/wouldn’t. To those people, I would say this was a function of the team,which HT and BroncoBear have written about. Chicago was a run first team, that is what they did, so, yes, defenses stacked the line expecting the run. And then BB wrote that fantastic article about Bill Walsh, the West Coast offense and how he loved the short pass, which basically dares the defense to stack the line, because the O will stretch the field horizontally allowing for huge passing gains, AFTER the ball has been caught. I don’t think that Orton is as accurate downfield as perhaps a Brady or a Manning, but how often is that even a part of the game plan McD has devised? I’m very excited for this team. I hope that the defense continues it’s excellent play and that the offense gets more and more comfortable for the O to the point that we are eating up a ton of clock and yards and scoring more than that weeks opponent.

I’m excited for this Oakland game. Go Broncos!!!

Consider this as well; The longer the ball is in the air the more time the defender has to react and either intercept or knock down the pass. IMO this is one of the primary reason that the faders aren’t successful and teams like Indy and NE are. They don’t throw long often but when they do it’s effective.

But I liked it just the same.

Had an introspective moment, and came up with the following:

And understand that I perform a an average of probably 150 equations a day, not counting the billions my CAD and spreadsheets grind out. You might call me stat-inclined.

Last year I was unhappy that the Broncos offense seemed to generate great stats (every other week we had the leading receiver or rusher or passer in yards, for example) but we just kept losing. I was torn: when a tipped pass was intercepted I honestly felt bad for Jay; I worried about him not getting accolades, not surpassing Rivers, etc.

This year I could honestly give a rat’s hairy ass. I don’t want to see Orton underpaid because his completion % is low, but I trust the coach and the owner to run a team, “ratchet up” (must find post about 4 days ago) during games, with personnel, with play coaching, etc. and if we win 12 games after the best bloviators predicted 3, Orton will be back and not worried about his mortgage.

Good stats are a poor team’s victories.

nice rant. I was considering what you said and what comes to mind is two of the best QB’s in the game today throw a lot of so called “dink and dunk” balls with a spatering of so called “deep balls” Just look at the play of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, yet no one critizes them, why they just help their teams win games. That is what Orton does for us, at least so far.

Recievers are paid to catch the ball, and generally speaking, they excel at it. A pass that hits the hands of a capable receiver and falls incomplete must therefore be deemed “unlucky” and added to the yardage total.

1. We have to count good deflections, because we count bad ones. When a pass is intercepted through no fault of the QB, it still counts against the QB’s stats. So Orton deserves good credit along with the bad. The pass counts.

2. As pointed out before, if we don’t count the pass that got deflected, then we should count the one he threw to Marshall when Marshall tripped (and that too could very likely have been a TD). Either way, he should get credit for one of those TDs, but folks won’t bring that up. The pass counts.

3. The NFL determines what counts and what doesn’t. The pass netted a TD, and the official stat log credits Orton and Stokley. Folks can quibble all they want, but the final authority says the pass counted.

Frankly, the talk that the pass somehow shouldn’t count is a bunch of whining and crying signifying nothing at all. It is ridiculous in the extreme.

Good post BShrout!