Brad's NFL Picks - Week Three - 2009
Brad's Picks was 10-6 last week. Here's the good, the bad and the ugly from that:
the good:
Denver 27, Browns 6. Halftime score was 10-6 Denver.
Vikings 27, Detroit 13. First downs - Vikes 18, Detroit 17. Each had 265 net yards. Detroit tossed two INT's, Vikes tossed none.
Atlanta 28, Panthers 20. Jake Delhomme looked much better than the last two games, but the home team won. Pretty close all the way around.
Washington 9, Rams 7. One FG in the 3rd (by the Reds); no scoring in the 4th.
New York Jets 16, Patriots 9. Three field goals apiece, plus a touchdown by the Jets on a nine yard TD toss by Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez.
Raiders 13, Kansas City 10. This game was painful to watch until the last three minutes when both teams woke up and scored a touchdown.
Saints 48, Philadelphia 22. Kevin Kolb wasn't that bad in relief of Donovan McNabb - 31 of 51 for 395 yards and two TD tosses. But, 3 INT's. And Drew Brees was better - not as many yards, but just one INT.
San Francisco 23, Seahawks 10. Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck left the game late in the first half with a broken rib, but that's not why they lost the game. Two long TD runs by Frank Gore (79 and 80) is why the Seahawks lost the game.
Ravens 31, San Diego 26. Tough, hard fought game, the outcome in doubt until the last minute.
Giants 33, Dallas 31. Seven lead changes and a last minute FG by the Giants ruined the 'Boys grand opening of their mega-dome. 3 INT's by Tony Romo didn't help.
the bad:
Texans 34, Tennessee 31. First downs and total net yards were about even, but the Titans turned it over twice.
Chicago 17, Steelers 14. Steelers up 14-7 at the end of three, but Jay Cutler led the Bears to a FG and a TD in the 4th. Two missed FG's by the Steelers didn't help their cause.
Bengals 31, Green Bay 24. If Carson Palmer hadn't thrown two INT's (one brought back for seven), the loss by the Packers might have been a lot worse. Bengals got 151 on the ground, Packers got just 89.
Colts 27, Miami 23. On MNF. If you think time of possession is a big indicator of who wins, think again. Fins had the ball for 45 minutes, Colts 15.
the ugly:
Buffalo 33, Buccaneers 20. Two INT's by the Bills, one returned for 7, made the difference in a game without much defense.
Cardinals 31, Jacksonville 17. Kurt Warner was 24-26-0-243, after going 26-44-2-288 in week one against the Niners.
Brad's Picks is 22-10 on the season. NFC and AFC both won two inter-conference games. On the season, it's NFC 4, AFC 2. Home teams were just 7-9 last week. On the season, home teams are 16-16.
the 11:00 MDT games:
Washington (1-1) at Detroit (0-2) - Lions held Vikings RB Adrian Peterson to just 92 yards last week. Not bad, when you consider that Matt Birk (former Vikings Center, now with the Ravens) says that Peterson could be the first RB to gain 3,000 yards in a season. Redskins looked pretty abysmal last week at home against the Rams. Lions got 129 ground yards against the Vikings last week. Redskins' D is pretty good but not as good as the Vikes. I just gotta take the Lions here - they can't keep losing forever.
Tennessee (0-2) at New York Jets (2-0) - Tennessee started 10-0 in 08, and then they lost at home to the Jets, 34-13. Now they are 0-2. New D coordinator Chuck Cecil might be getting some heat, but he's been with the team since 2001 so maybe it's not his fault. And beside, the two losses have both been by just 3 points, one in OT (Steelers). Speedy RB Chris Johnson ran for 197 yards on just 16 carries against the Texans. One run was for 91 yards and a TD. Take that one away and he still averaged 7 yards per carry. Hard call, but Jeff Fisher usually gets his team up for the tough ones, and quick and fast Chris Johnson may be just the antidote to the Jets' aggressive defense. Taking the Titans here.
Green Bay (1-1) at St. Louis (0-2) - Packers O line is not holding up - Aaron Rogers was sacked 6 times by the Bengals, and 4 times the week before by the Bears. Packers also have serious issues at safety. One starter is out for awhile, and they just cut the backup so they could sign a guy that was cut by the Colts earlier (Colts cut the guy so they could sign a guy who had been cut by the Cardinals). Anyway, Packers have problems at safety. Rams RB Stephen Jackson is averaging over 5 yards per carry. I'm taking the Rams at home for no good reason.
Cleveland (0-2) at Baltimore (2-0) - Division game. Browns lost both games to the Ravens last year, by 18 at Baltimore and by 10 at home. Both teams had to go west last week, Browns to Denver, Ravens to San Diego. Ravens won a tough one, Browns got clubbed at Mile High. I'm taking Baltimore. So is everyone else.
San Francisco (2-0) at Minnesota (2-0) - Frank Gore (207 yards on 16 carries last week) vs. Adrian Peterson (92 on 15). On the season, though, it's Gore with 237 on 22 and Peterson with 272 on 40. So, if you like the run game, watch this one, although Frank Gore is questionable with an ankle sprain. Vikings had the best run D in the league last year, but they gave up 129 on the ground to Detroit last week. Brett Favre has been dinking and dunking (37 of 48 for 265 yards) and I think he's going to have to make a few long plays this week. He's had enough time to get ready for it, and I think Minnesota wins this in a fairly high scoring, but close, game. 24-21?
Jacksonville (0-2) at Houston (1-1) - Division game. Houston got stomped by the Jets in Week One, but came back to win a brawl in Tennessee. Jags lost a tough opener at Undy then got whupped at home by a red hot Kurt Warner and his Cardinals. Jags are starting a pair of rookie tackles, and here comes Mario Williams. I'm taking Houston.
Atlanta (2-0) at New England (1-1) - Patriots have lost a lot of players, and Tom Brady hasn't looked as good as in 2007, after missing all of 2008, but he should get Wes Welker back this week. Atlanta's defense still isn't real good, but the offense is - young Matt Ryan is playing very well. I've been hemming and hawing here, so when in doubt take the home team. Patriots.
New York Giants (2-0) at Tampa Bay (0-2) - Bucs have given up over 330 yards per game the last seven games, and now they've lost a starting safety for the season. If the Giants have come back to earth after whupping the 'Boys in their Lollapalooza Dome on Sunday night, they should win this one.
Kansas City (0-2) at Philadelphia (1-1) - Donovan McNabb missed last week with his busted rib, but backup Kevin Kolb looked okay, despite his 3 INT's. We might see Michael Vick in for a few wildcat type plays, but I expect Kolb to do just fine against a poor Chiefs team - he won't feel like he has to match a high-octane offense point for point. Take the Eagles at home. Easy call.
the 2:05 MDT games:
Chicago (1-1) at Seattle (1-1) - Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck suffered a broken rib last week. They're saying he might play, but I don't believe it - Seneca Wallace will get the start. Julius Jones has averaged 4.7 for the Hawks on the ground, with a 62 yard TD run. Bears haven't been able to get Matt Forte going on the ground (just 2.2 yards per carry), but Jay Cutler had a solid performance last week against a good Steelers' D -27-38-0-236. Tough call - Cutler may keep it going and throw for a win, but I'm taking the Seahawks at home. The weather should be pretty nice.
New Orleans (2-0) at Buffalo (1-1) - Bills gave up 296 yards to Byron Leftwich last week, so what are they going to do about Drew Brees? And former Bronco Mike Bell is averaging 5 per carry on the ground. Saints showed they could play on the road last week in Philly.
the 2:15 MDT games:
Miami (0-2) at San Diego (1-1) - San Diego lost a tough one last week to the Ravens, and I don't think the Dolphins are as good as the Ravens. Plus, the Fins played on Monday night and now have to travel cross country. Taking the Chargers at home.
Pittsburgh (1-1) at Cincinnati (1-1) - Division game. Steelers had to go to OT to beat the Titans in the opener, and then, even with three extra days, lost in Chicago to the Bears. Bengals lost at home in a close one, then went to Green Bay and won by seven, with their D all over Aaron Rogers. Steelers and Packers have this in common: their O lines aren't very good. Take the Bengals at home.
Denver (2-0) at Oakland (1-1) - Division game. Third division game for Oakland, first for the Broncos. Both teams are feeling some muscle, so all players better have their chin straps secured. Kyle Orton has played a good, safe game while recovering from a bad injury to his right finger. I think he'll be able to do a little more this week, and the Broncos D is feeling it. Brian Dawkins plays his first ever game at the Black Hole, and he's going to enjoy every minute. Taking the Broncos here.
the SNF game:
Undianapolis (2-0) at Arizona (1-1) - Second prime time, evening game in a row for the Colts, both on the road, at opposite ends of the country. Miami kept the Colts' D on the field for 45 minutes last Monday night, in the heat and humidity. If you watched it, you could see that the Colts defenders didn't just look tired, they looked ill (they still did a whale of a job). Will they be recovered when they get to Arizona? Forecast is for a high of 105 and a low of 79 on Sunday, and the low will probably occur a couple hours after the game ends. Kurt Warner was on fire last week in Jacksonville, setting an all-time NFL record with a 92.3% completion rate (24 of 26 with no INT's). How old is this guy? Peyton Manning was also on fire in Miami - he could not be stopped. Gotta take the home team Cardinals to beat a tired Colts defense. Look for scoring though - if the Colts D had to work hard last week, the O hardly broke a sweat.
the MNF game:
Carolina (0-2) at Dallas (1-1) - 'Boys had to endure a last minute loss to the Giants last week in their really, really, really big new dome. I think the 'Boys were more nervous about it than the Giants. Anyway, it was a real close game, and Tony Romo threw a bunch of INT's and I don't think he'll do that again and I also don't think the Panthers are as good as the Giants so I'm taking the 'Boys here.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
4 recs |
18 comments
Comments
The Lions will eventually win a game, but not this week the Skins out play them.
Spagnuolo hasn’t really done anything to upgrade the Rams like McDaniels has done. They are still a very bad football team IMO and won’t win this week either, the Packers will rebound. Is Miami missing Goodman and Hill? Or is there something else going on there? I still picked the Dolphins to beat SD…heres hoping anyway.
by bfree2bronc on Sep 25, 2009 12:26 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Spags started with less to work with
Their QB hasn’t played well the past couple of years.
Their O-line is/was horrible.
Their WR corps has dwindled no one is left from the greatest show on earth.
The defense was ranked 28th last year (just 1 spot ahead of our 29th)
IMO the rb had been the only bright spot at the end of 2008. And he probably could have been much better on a better team.
I think it would have been hard to inherit that team. I mean where do you even start???
McDaniels didn’t really have to change very much personnel on our offense. We kept most of our starters and technically could have kept Cutler too and been fine. We didn’t need to add much to it other than the RB situation. And even at RB I think Hillis could have been a productive #1 RB for us.
This allowed McD to basically whitewash the defense and even then he was able to move and utilize some of the existing players.
by trumanj on Sep 25, 2009 2:37 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think bfree's disputing that Spags had less to work with.
I believe he was just pointing out that Spags and the Rams, as it stands right now, are not a good team; in fact they look quite awful. And it’s hard to argue with how little was done to upgrade the team in the offseason (even the Lions seemed to improve in several areas). However, there may be factors (contracts, GM and ownership decisions, etc.) that we aren’t aware of, so we should reserve judgment for another year or two.
Spags seems like a decent coach (although I was not one of those who wanted him Denver….just didn’t seem like a fit to me) and he should be given every opportunity to turn things around in St. Louis, but it is not going to even come close to happening this year. As you pointed out, they have problems up and down, left and right, front and back and just about every other way you can think of. Where do you start indeed? Which is exactly why the Packers (after a very tough loss at home) will come out seething and ready to take out their frustrations on a very talent depleted St. Louis Rams team.
Also, whether you meant to imply it or not, I will defend McDaniels and say I think he should be given a little credit for what he’s done; in fact he should be given a lot of credit, in my humble estimation. He may not have had to change much as far as offensive personnel (although the few additions he brought in were excellent), but he did have to install an entirely new offensive scheme, get the players to buy into it (sometimes tougher for units that have been together for any length of time), replace his starting QB, bring in an entirely new coaching staff (except for 2 holdovers), install an entirely new defensive scheme, bring in new players (young and old, drafted and free agents) at almost every position, get the players to buy into it (including inserting some players into roles and positions they’ve never played a minute of their life in), and do all of this under the watchful and conflicted eye of a very passionate Broncos fan base. He may have had more to work with, but you can build a team up just as much as you can tear one down if you’re not good at your job. Ask Chargers fans about Norv Turner being handed a team with all the talent in the world (FAR more than the Broncos had to work with this offseason) and how that’s worked out for them. McDaniels not perfect, but that he isn’t getting more credit for what he’s done for this team (especially by Broncos fans) in one tumultuous offseason (yes, even only 2 games into the season) is disappointing.
In any case, I’d take the Broncos and all of their supposed troubles and weaknesses any day of the week than be in the position the Rams (and even the Raiders) are in. I sure wouldn’t have minded if we were playing the NFC West this season rather than the NFC East, but hopefully that will just make us stronger in the long run.
Go Broncos!
"Reality continues to ruin my life." - Calvin (Calvin & Hobbes)
by RockyMtnHigh on Sep 25, 2009 9:45 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
wasn't trying to imply anything bad about Mcd
Just trying to say we have great offensive talent. Something the rams didn’t\don’t have. I realize McDaniels has done a lot of work and installed a new scheme that should work out better for us but even before he got here the offense was leaps and bounds better than the rams.
by trumanj on Sep 26, 2009 9:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I figured you probably weren't implying that.
But once I got on the rant, I just couldn’t stop. It’s a common theme for me. :-)
"Reality continues to ruin my life." - Calvin (Calvin & Hobbes)
by RockyMtnHigh on Sep 28, 2009 12:10 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hate to say it
Seachickens without starting QB and after seeing what the niners did to them last week ….. gotta go with Bears .. man i hated typing that.
by prunch on Sep 25, 2009 12:35 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I hear ya.
I was not happy to go with the Bears, but I just don’t see the Seahawks being able to overcome them this week, even in Seattle. I have a feeling Forte might get it going this week (at least a little….anything is an improvement over his production so far), which could mean more open receivers for Cutler. Wouldn’t be brokenhearted to see a couple of pick 6’s on Cutler, but it’s probably not going to happen.
"Reality continues to ruin my life." - Calvin (Calvin & Hobbes)
by RockyMtnHigh on Sep 25, 2009 9:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
We got three different this week!
I took the Redskins, Packers, and Bears this week. Looks like we are lock-step in the upsets I did pick. Good luck! I just couldn’t bring myself to pick a team that has lost 20 straight. Prove to me you can win…then maybe I’ll consider picking you down the road. lmao The Seachickens could win…they are tough at home. Eat Cutler alive!
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
by Tim Lynch on Sep 25, 2009 12:47 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
True without the running of Gore it would have been a closer game.
I’m hoping the Seahags defense steps on cutler’s throat.
by bfree2bronc on Sep 25, 2009 12:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
At 22-10 you and J-man are about tied
I’m impressed – great work, bradley. This is still one of my favorite columns of the week
Hillis/Moreno in '09
by Emmett Smith on Sep 25, 2009 2:31 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
same
I love me some pickem!!!!!! Thanks for the writeups, Bradely!
BTW, anyone doing confidence pix? My friends and I are trying that this year and it certainly adds a fun wrinkle to the game…
by tunga77 on Sep 25, 2009 2:37 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Confidence pix
I don’t do it but some friends do. I try to give some indication of how sure I am in my write-up. Baltimore over the Browns would be at the top, with Philly over the Chiefs second, then probably Saints over Buffalo. St. Louis over the Packers at the bottom, with Detroit over the Redskins at 15.
A man does what he has to do, and sometimes it’s not what I believe he should do. There’s no reason to use up energy hating him for it. Shoot him if you have to, but don’t hate him.
Louis L’Amour
by bradley on Sep 26, 2009 7:30 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks BB
Always fun to put something together. This should be an interesting week. Broncos will be 3-0 by Sunday evening. McD is ten times the coach that Cable is.
A man does what he has to do, and sometimes it’s not what I believe he should do. There’s no reason to use up energy hating him for it. Shoot him if you have to, but don’t hate him.
Louis L’Amour
by bradley on Sep 26, 2009 7:24 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like your picks bradley, as well as the usual entertaining comments
I really like the Cards over Indy—I think the Cards really woke up last week.
Last week I had Houston over Tennesse—I’m actually picking Houston to take that division this year.
Good luck this week.
Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.
by Mike Clark on Sep 26, 2009 9:20 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
"Last week I had Houston over Tennesse— "
Gutsy call last week, especially after the Texans’ first week flotch. Cards and Colts are going to set a record Sunday night for total points scored .
A man does what he has to do, and sometimes it’s not what I believe he should do. There’s no reason to use up energy hating him for it. Shoot him if you have to, but don’t hate him.
Louis L’Amour
by bradley on Sep 26, 2009 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
For some reason this season seems to be setting itself up as a 'change of guard' type of year.
CBS televised both Pittsburg games in this area. Their D front seven seems unusually weak against the run, their offense seems to be unable to open running lanes, both somewhat unusual for a Pittsburg team. If Troy P has lingering affects from his injury Pitt could be in real trouble.
New England looked, at best, mediocre against the Jets. I wonder how much losing so many asst. coaches is affecting Bill B’s team.
Indy looks really tired defensively. They’ll need to score a ton of points to win games this year. I think Houston will take them down twice and win the division this year.
On the other side 49’rs look like they could be a real force. The fight will be between them and the Cards—Seattle is going to tank.
I also like the Jets and think Buffalo could have a surprising season.
My other strange pick for division crown this year (if Cutler can keep his head on straight) is Chicago.
Anyway, thanks again for this weekly post, I really enjoy it.
I do have one last question, however, is George not doing any picks this season?
Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.
by Mike Clark on Sep 26, 2009 11:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
George...
….is retired, or at least semi retired. He’s spent the off season slumbering here by the computer, in his envelope that is covered with notes and sites and such. I came close to asking him his opinion on the New England/Falcons game (it was my last and hardest call) but didn’t. However, just for you, Mike, I just queried the silver one – he agrees that the Patriots will win.
A man does what he has to do, and sometimes it’s not what I believe he should do. There’s no reason to use up energy hating him for it. Shoot him if you have to, but don’t hate him.
Louis L’Amour
by bradley on Sep 26, 2009 12:16 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
Guardian of the Gate to La La Land!
Gonsoulin, Taylor, Little, Wright, Gradishar, Atwater, Davis, and Sharpe...
Why are they not in the Hall...I just don't understand.
by Mike Clark on Sep 26, 2009 12:29 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

by 




























