Try to Not Laugh Too Much (Another Round)

by BShrout on Sep 28, 2009 9:44 PM MDT Comment 17 comments

    In my first prediction post, I predicted that the following teams would win in week 3: Denver, Green Bay, NY Jets, Baltimore, NY Giants, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Washington, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Houston, New Orleans, San Diego and Dallas.

    I also went back and applied the formula I'm using to the week 2 games & saw that it only went 9-7. Week 1 was not possible to compute, since I'm using current performance stats from the season to date to make the predictions & there were none for the week 1 games.

    In week three, I was right regarding: Denver, Green Bay, NY Jets, Baltimore, NY Giants, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, San Diego, and Dallas. This means I went 11-5 for the week. This gives me a two week total of 20-12. To offer a disclaimer: my formula had the Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game in a tie, I flipped a coin & went with Pittsburgh (so much for coin flips).

    So here goes a run at week 4:

Open Date: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia

NY Giants @ Kansas City:        Giants 36-8
Cincinnati @ Cleveland:            Bengals 31-3
Tampa Bay @ Washington:       Redskins 20-6
Baltimore @ New England:       Ravens 36-21
Tennessee @ Jacksonville:      Jaguars 20-9
Seattle @ Indianapolis:            Colts 28-13
Oakland @ Houston:                Raiders 18-15 (this one kills me to put down)
Detroit @ Chicago:                   Bears 27-16
Buffalo @ Miami                       Bills 17-12
NY Jets @ New Orleans          Saints 34-27
St. Louis @ San Francisco    49ers - 27-0
Dallas @ Denver                     Broncos 28-21
San Diego @ Pittsburgh         Chargers 25-17 (another agony to type)
Green Bay @ Minnesota        Vikings 35-29

    After week 6, I'll lay out the formula I'm using so y'all can dissect it to death, or just laugh at it, or say "wow" or whatever other response you feel like making.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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These picks all look pretty reasonable to me

except for the Chargers over a very hungry Steelers team playing at home, and to a lesser extent the Raiders (but then I went 7-7 this week against the spread, so what do I know…) You do have me intrigued to hear what your formula is.

"I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today" -- Wimpy J. Wellington

by Broncs Cheer on Sep 28, 2009 9:52 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

It'll show up in a couple more weeks

I just want a large sample base to work from to see if it has any validity at all. I’m guessing I’ll end somewhere around .500 in the predictions.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by BShrout on Sep 28, 2009 9:56 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take the Broncos 28

and give you a Dallas 13. A touchdown and two field goals i’m thinkin’.

by Kapiti on Sep 28, 2009 9:57 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I could live with that

I’m less worried about the actual score than with whether or not they win.

by BShrout on Sep 28, 2009 10:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

BShrout

I am more excited for the Damn formula than I am for the results!!!

Give me!!!! haha, Good work, my friend.

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Sep 28, 2009 10:14 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Patience my young apprentice

keep your attention here and now where it belongs.

Sorry, was watching The Phantom Menace earlier.

Let me get a slightly larger sample base to work with. Then I’ll fess up.

by BShrout on Sep 28, 2009 10:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last Year

BShrout, why not use last year as a sample base?

by Endzone on Sep 29, 2009 1:22 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I suppose I could

though it would probably get a bit depressing looking at the way it would play out for the Broncos. ;-p

I look and see if I can find the stats I need to be able to do that.

by BShrout on Sep 29, 2009 3:22 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's see take the favorites and ignore the spreads...

Let’s try that formula haha

by Whidbey Bronco on Sep 28, 2009 10:35 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

i tend to ignore the spread and "expert" picks

I only look at current standings. :D

by BShrout on Sep 28, 2009 10:41 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your formula vs my guesses advantage formula

by idahobronc on Sep 28, 2009 10:40 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd be willing to bet

your guesses will have a better success rate than my formula over the long run

by BShrout on Sep 28, 2009 10:42 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's all the faith you have in our defense B?

After all they have done for us these last 3 weeks? Man…Too many turnovers for the romo kid. 31-13. That’s it. I know, our defensive percentage goes down but give dallas a little credit for a punt return and a couple of field goals. Heh heh.

by bfree2bronc on Sep 29, 2009 1:52 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually

I’m thinking more in your range b2b, but the results posted above are based on a strictly numerical formula.

I think I mentioned above, I’m less concerned with whether or not the formula can predict scores as much as whether or not it can predict the winners. A few of the scores have been close to what actually happened, and a couple had about the same point differential, but the majority of them weren’t particularly close. :)

by BShrout on Sep 29, 2009 3:25 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs