Broncos vs Cowboys (Pretender Bowl?)

by dcrespo7 on Sep 29, 2009 10:29 AM MDT

I've given up on the MSM for any real insight for this matchup and won't expect anything unbiased or relatively researched until Sunday's pregame panel of "journalists". Since most hypothesis require some facts, just look below the jump as I try and argue why a victory is in order come Sunday.

*Listening to "Where's Your Head At" by Basement Jaxx

Cowboys	Average Team Rankings	Broncos
10.9	Total Offense	10.6
17.5	Total Defense	8.7
16.8	Passing Offense	15.9
23.2	Passing Defense	3.8
2.5	Rushing Offense	6.5
18.3	Rushing Defense	5.7
13.7	Receiving Offense	16.0
20.2	Receiving Defense	2.2
13.3	Punting	21.5
11.8	Return	17.8
15.5	Kicking	16.3

The above is separate yet combined average of stats through week 3. A more detailed version are as follows below. Though Dallas has avg 28 points a game to Denver's 20, I'd like to point out that a 34-21 game against a horrible TB team is just about equal to Denver's game vs Cleveland's 27-6 beat down w/the exception of defensive play (as Dallas has been consistent in scoring, Den has been consistent keeping teams from scoring). The shootout w/NYG 33-31 loss is on par to Den's win over Cincy 12-6 (again both teams playing to their strengths - Dal's O and Den's D). Both teams won their week 3 match ups but when we look at Dallas, this is a team that is deep w/talent and expectations to challenge the NFC's elite for the SB whereas Denver is entering their portion of the schedule that is to truly challenge what we're trying to put together.

Denver's defense is what will separate the two teams. Until last night, Dallas had not caused any turnovers or gotten sacks of the QB. Though the Dallas offense has tremendous receiving talent from TE Witten and the ever dangerous Williams and company, the real advantage is the play of QB. Romo has been reckless, and unlucky, throwing the ball resulting in interceptions and this Denver defense is composed of discipline and ballhawking skills all across the depth chart. The exact opposite can be said for Orton as he has played mistake free football after almost losing the game at Cincy by taking an ill advised sack resulting in a punt rather than a FG.

When I look at the Dallas OL and compare to Den's front 7, I don't see a group that's focused or consistent and this is where the game will be won. The only way to offset Denver's greatest asset is to control the ball w/runs inside and the occasional play action pass. This bodes well for Denver as well because Dallas hasn't been able to commit to one aspect of their offense, until last night against a run defense depleted w/injuries in Carolina, and tend to pass more often when they're behind or a team is more physical defensively.

So what if the game comes down to if Dallas plays mistake free football? Both teams are converting 3rd down plays at a rate of 41% which is very impressive (more so w/Denver considering the offense is still under construction) but defensively Dallas allows 33% conversion to Denver's 28%. Considering the way Den's defense crowds the ball and the decision making of Romo, this would be where Denver could either pull away or lose if the game is close. Dallas has no premiere pass rusher, regardless what the MSM like to suggest otherwise, and believe Den's OL will again control the LoS.

The real test will come down to coaching and I think I can speak for most fans that follow the NFL in general, McDaniels has a clear edge over Phillips. Though Dallas should win this game due to their key positions talent, its safe to say that all across that Denver sideline, coaches will be making adjustments to exploit both our opposition's weakness and to correct our own.

Denver 24 Dallas 13.

Total Offense	Cowboys		Broncos
	Stat	Rk	Stat	Rk
Points/Game	28.7	5	20.7	14
Total Yds/Game	429.7	3	374.3	9
Giveaways	4	14	2	2
Total 1st Downs	65	4	56	15
3rd Down Efficiency	41.2%	18	41.0%	14
4th Down Efficiency	0%	29	33.3%	20
Total TDs	9	3	6	15
Scoring Efficiency	42.4%	6	40.6%	7
3 and Out Drives	4	1	7	10
Penalties	17	11	16	5
Penalty Yds	171	26	119	6
Avg Total Off. Rank	10.9		10.6

Total Defense	Cowboys		Broncos
	Stat	Rk	Stat	Rk
Opp. Points/Game	20.3	17	5.3	1
Opp. Total Yds/Game	382.7	26	214.7	1
Takeaways	3	23	8	4
Opp. Total 1st Downs	60	19	36	1
Opp. 3rd Down Efficiency	33.3%	7	28.2%	4
Opp. 4th Down Efficiency	66.7%	12	50.0%	13
Opp. Total TDs	6	15	1	1
Opp. Scoring Efficiency	29.4%	9	12.1%	1
Opp. 3 and Out Drives	10	12	8	17
Opp. Penalties	14	27	14	28
Opp. Penalty Yds	120	26	123	25
Avg Total Def. Rank	17.5		8.7

Passing Offense	Cowboys		Broncos
	Stat	Rk	Stat	Rk
Total Attempts	89	27	88	28
Total Completions	51	27	49	30
Completion Pct.	57.3	23	55.7	26
Passing Yds/Game	236.0	14	215.7	15
Yds/Attempts	7.96	5	7.35	8
Passing TDs	4	14	3	20
INTs Thrown	3	18	0	1
QB Rating	85.2	18	91.2	11
Passing 1st Downs	29	23	30	22
Sacks Allowed	3	6	3	7
Sacks Yds Allowed	27	10	16	7
Avg Passing Off. Rank	16.8		15.9

Passing Defense	Cowboys		Broncos
	Stat	Rk	Stat	Rk
Opp. Total Attempts	113	27	85	3
Opp. Total Completions	72	27	51	4
Opp. Completion Pct.	63.7	27	60.0	11
Opp. Passing Yds/Game	268.0	27	136.3	2
Opp. Yds/Attempts	7.12	21	4.81	3
Opp. Passing TDs	4	16	0	1
Interceptions	2	18	5	5
Opp. QB Rating	90.1	20	50.6	3
Opp. Passing 1st Downs	38	21	25	2
Sacks	3	25	10	2
Sacks Yds	22	26	60	6
Avg Passing Def. Rank	23.2		3.8

Rushing Offense	Cowboys		Broncos
	Stat	Rk	Stat	Rk
Total Attempts	85	9	102	3
Rushing Yds/Game	193.7	1	158.7	4
Yds/Carry	6.8	1	4.7	8
Rushing TDs	5	2	3	8
Rushing 1st Downs	31	1	21	7
Rushing Fumbles	0	1	1	9
Avg Rushing Off. Rank	2.5		6.5

Rushing Defense	Cowboys		Broncos
	Stat	Rk	Stat	Rk
Opp. Total Attempts	73	12	71	10
Opp. Rushing Yds/Game	114.7	17	78.3	7
Opp. Yds/Carry	4.7	26	3.3	7
Opp. Rushing TDs	2	16	1	4
Opp. Rushing 1st Downs	18	19	9	5
Opp. Rushing Fumbles	1	20	4	1
Avg Rushing Def. Rank	18.3		5.7

Receiving Offense	Cowboys		Broncos
	Stat	Rk	Stat	Rk
Receptions	51	27	49	30
Receiving Yds/Game	245.0	14	221.0	17
Yds/Reception	14.4	3	13.5	5
Receiving TDs	4	14	3	20
Receiving 1st Downs	29	23	30	22
Receiving Fumbles	0	1	0	2
Avg Receiving Off. Rank	13.7		16.0

Receiving Defense	Cowboys		Broncos
	Stat	Rk	Stat	Rk
Opp. Receptions	72	27	51	4
Opp. Receiving Yds/Game	275.3	26	156.3	2
Opp. Yds/Receptions	11.5	20	9.2	1
Opp. Receiving TDs	4	16	0	1
Opp. Receiving 1st Downs	38	21	25	2
Opp. Receiving Fumbles	1	11	2	3
Avg Receiving Def. Rank	20.2		2.2

Punting Stats	Cowboys		Broncos
	Stat	Rk	Stat	Rk
Punts	13	18	12	20
Punting Yds	601	17	530	21
Punting Average	46.2	10	44.2	20
Inside 20	8	2	4	16
Touchbacks	1	16	1	17
Blocked	0	7	0	8
Net Punting Average	40.8	10	35.8	27
Avg Punting Stats Rank	13.3		21.5

Return Stats	Cowboys		Broncos
	Stat	Rk	Stat	Rk
Kick Returns	11	13	5	32
Kick Return Yds	256	18	88	32
Kick Returns for TD	0	8	0	9
Punt Returns	7	14	8	10
Punt Return Yds	65	12	48	17
Punt Returns for TD	0	6	0	7
Avg Returns Stats Rank	11.8		17.8

Kicking Stats	Cowboys		Broncos
	Stat	Rk	Stat	Rk
Extra Points Made	9	5	5	22
Extra Points Pct.	9/9 100.0	5	5/5 100.0	22
Field Goals Made	5	11	7	4
Field Goal Pct.	5/6, 83.3	13	7/9, 77.8	4
FG 1-19	1/1, 100.0	1	0/0, 0	9
FG 20-29	2/2, 100.0	10	3/3, 100.0	6
FG 30-39	0/0, 0	28	1/3, 33.3	23
FG 40-49	1/2, 0	18	2/2, 0	5
FG 50+	1/1, 100.0	2	1/1, 100.0	3
Avg Kicking Stats Rank	15.5		16.3

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

Tweet Comment 18 comments | 8 recs |

Do you like this story?

Read More: Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys

Comments

I like your research

I certainley would have been far too lazy to gather that info and put it in a post.

I agree with most if not all of your points and I see this sunday being a great report card for the Broncos.

I think that our running game outplays their defense, and that our WR’s outplay their DB’s (leaving at least part of our success in our ability to complete passes) If we can shut down their Run game (which we have historically done this season) then I don’t think Romo has enough Horsepower (sorry horrible analogy) to get the game won.

This will by no means be an EASY game…..Easy meaning playing against a worse team like against the faders….but…..I still see us coming out on top by 7-10 points.

TAKE IT!!!!

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work."
- Thomas Alva Edison

"Success is not a place at which one arrives, but rather... the spirit with which one undertakes and continues the journey."
- Alex Noble

by DenBronx on Sep 29, 2009 10:53 AM MDT reply actions

hmm

I like the effort, however:

The opposition penalties I don’t even know if they should apply and the 3 and out drives should be percentage based, teams don’t have the same # of drives every game. This applies to # of first downs as well. The issue with 4th down efficiency is that 66% is a lot different if it is 2/3 compared with 8/12. The next success means you go from 66% to 50% or 66% to 62%.

There are punting stats but no kickoff stats?

I don’t want to detail other ones I disagree with, because I don’t like to be negative =)

Total attempts / completions … I just don’t like things that have little merit. Teams that are winning will typically run the ball more, thus reducing their “ranking” in the stats you presented.

A truth can only be expressed and enveloped in words if it is one-sided. Everything that is thought and expressed in words is one-sided, only half the truth; it all lacks totality, completeness, unity.

by Todd Jewell on Sep 29, 2009 11:28 AM MDT reply actions

re

Penalties is a huge indicator in discipline and falls unto coaching. Every team suffers from penalties and Dallas has committed fewer thus far into the season which only stress the importance for Denver to play mistake free football and not solely based on fumbles and interceptions. I’m sure coaches figure out specific situations where they’re able to exploit a set defense/offense and generate an penalty but that’s just a guess.

Foxsports.com only had kickoff returns but not average starting position but this game is at home so those numbers goes out the window.

Here’s what really stands out though when we’re talking about effecting management and maximizing scoring potential: Romo has thrown 3 interceptions to Orton’s ZERO. Romo has a QB Rating of 85 to Orton’s 91. Romo has thrown one more TD than Orton (4-3) and the completion rate favors Romo (57% to 55%).

I believe the team to shut down the run game first and win the turnover battle will most likely win. It’d be great to see Orton put in a situation where he can lead the team to victory in the closing minutes but I wouldn’t be opposed to a heavy does of Buckhalter, Moreno and Jordan!

Say hello to my fast...

by dcrespo7 on Sep 29, 2009 12:07 PM MDT up reply actions

Nice work!

Like our team, I think our contributors to MHR like to do thier homework. Overall, I concur with the deductions, but stats and my (our) gut feelings don’t count too much in the standings, especially after kickoff. So… I’ll do what I can for aour team and yell GO BRONCOS!! Rec’d for the analysis.

by idahobronc on Sep 29, 2009 12:22 PM MDT reply actions

The stat I really like is that Denver is 1st in causing fumbles.

Consider where this defense was a year ago, and you have a truly significant improvement. 4th in the league in takeaways and already nearing last year’s totals in that category.

We have terrific coaching, good player attitudes, and we’ve had games against teams that have permitted our defense to raise their confidence.

by dr.mort on Sep 29, 2009 12:55 PM MDT reply actions

totally awesome research & rec'd

though I have to admit that I almost didn’t read it because of the title:

“The Pretender Bowl” had me thinking at first, it was going to be an article aimed at the idea that we shouldn’t have much confidence in the Broncos this year.

I’m very glad to see that I was dead wrong on that perception.

"The best defense is a good offense. Or is it the other way around." Wolverine
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst, and know you will come down somewhere between the two.
Livin' in La La Land and Lovin' It

by Brian Shrout on Sep 29, 2009 12:57 PM MDT reply actions

re

Most def…everywhere we go there is always something about our team. First it was the 5-11 projection. Then the miracle play refuted the body of work against Cincy. Then the Browns was simply overlooked (we could have gotten *gasp Mangini). Now the Raiders are nowhere to the team that showed up at SD. I think if any team that should have gotten so much negative feedback were the Cowboys but love affairs are strange like that!

Say hello to my fast...

by dcrespo7 on Sep 29, 2009 1:19 PM MDT up reply actions

Right on

Dig the research – rec’d for time spent and (pertinent) details gathered.

I’ve got an inkling that this will be the first game where Prater is only used for Kickoffs and extra points… No field goals necessary – all end zone!!! I have only gut to go on here, but that is what it tells me… don’t know that this’d be one I’d follow by putting money on it, but that opportunity hasn’t presented itself either….
; )

he he he… Thanks again.

First team to three consecutive SB wins!!!! and then some, right? I think four and we oughtta let someone else have a fair shot : )

by PearlJamBroncoGFunk on Sep 29, 2009 5:13 PM MDT reply actions

Nice post, excellent work

Your scorecard was an excellent summary and then I enjoyed the details below. Rec’d!

Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.

by TJ Johnson on Sep 29, 2009 7:33 PM MDT reply actions

Incorrect to think Dallas has advantage

Jones definately likes to pay big money for flashy toys no doubt, but you under represent Denvers ‘Star’ players, and we have a few – Baily, Dawkins, Marshall, Stokely, Royal, The O Line. Then there are the closely guarded secret weapons of KM and Buck, Doom and that 12th player that always seems to be in the right spot at the right time. We match them for star power – and we kick the tar out of them where it counts – the other 45 players on the roster.

by Flunkie on Sep 29, 2009 8:01 PM MDT reply actions

Rich Gannon hit it so right – Mc D has the midas touch, these guys play together as a solid unit – there is such obvious chemistry and communication across the feild

by Flunkie on Sep 29, 2009 8:05 PM MDT up reply actions

re

Glad everyone enjoyed the material. Personally, I was taken back how well the defense has been performing. 1st in first downs allowed is huge not to mention touchdowns. I’m sure as the season progresses and injuries set in here and there, I have to say that the body of work has a solid foundation.

I like what Flunkie had to say regarding Denver’s star players but what can we say, we’re in Denver where no one besides Elway gets any recognition!

Say hello to my fast...

by dcrespo7 on Sep 29, 2009 8:51 PM MDT up reply actions

Pressuring Romo

This is the key… I was listening to Michael Lombardi today on a local sports station in Dallas, and he nailed a huge key to victory for Denver. The Dallas Oline has done pretty well, but they won’t have the 3-headed attack at RB. Felix is out and Barber is “iffy” at this point… Choice is solid, but if they don’t have Barber… they lose a player that is great at blocking and picking up the blitz.

Our defense has done well with getting pressure on the QB and getting sacks, but they really need to focus on PRESSURING Romo… force him into making bad decisions, it’s not hard to do.

Right now, they have some nice weapons in the passing game, but they’re going to be out of synch early if they can consistently pressure Romo and take Witten out of key plays. It’s impossible to expect that Denver or any defense will take a guy like Witten out of the gameplan, he’s just too good… but, if they can make it rough on Witten and keep Romo flustered… the Denver offense will have a much better chance of doing what they need to do in order to win.

We don’t need a shootout… we don’t need this game to fall on Orton. I don’t think he’s horrible by any means, but I’m not yet comfortable with him if he has to go toe-to-toe with Romo and their attack if it gets nasty.

This is the game for the defense to make statement… one that will resonate around the league and go a bit further in making the doubters pay some respect.

______
Mile High Mania

by Mile High Mania on Sep 30, 2009 9:48 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs

re

I’m disappointed that Dallas has injuries at the RB position simply because I see Denver winning this game had they been healthy in the first place. Dallas OL is questionable to me. When Romo is decisive w/the ball and the running game is aggressive, that OL is great but when Romo hangs on to the ball the OL normally lose containment and then Romo is forced to extend plays.

This is a great test for Denver regardless of injuries though as Dallas is a media darling. Dallas will be more threatening in a 3WR set than anything to be honest. Its the only way to single out our S and challenge Alphonso Smith’s ability at this point. If Dallas attempts to win by playing smash mouth this may bode well for Denver simply because of two factors: 1. Denver has done very well w/Davis and DJ plugging the middle while Fields has done admirably well at the PoC and the G position for Dallas is inconsistent to begin with. 2. Dawkins has seen this team twice a year when in Philly and wouldn’t put it past the coaching staff picking up those tendencies that worked for Philly and identifying the subtle strengths of Dallas.

24-10 Denver

Say hello to my fast...

by dcrespo7 on Sep 30, 2009 10:16 AM MDT up reply actions

Should be an interesting game for sure.

A. Smith is out for this game? How about Stokley?

by bfree2bronc on Sep 30, 2009 10:36 AM MDT up reply actions

Cowboys Fans irritated by this post

Went over to Cowboys “Bloggingtheboys” just to see how they felt about upcoming game. There is a Fanshot title “Denver fans have wasted no time taking the 1st shot” talking about this Fanpost of ours. Sounds like the fans feel a little uneasy about facing us. I believe they feel that they are far superior to us which would make a loss so terrible for them. There is only one comment stating "The thing that scares me about this is if Denver still runs that zone-blocking scheme. Dallas seems to have problems getting a consistent pass rush on this kind of scheme; but after having already seen it in Tampa, perhaps they will be more ready for it this week.
GO BRONCOS!! SHOW THEM WHO WE ARE!

by broncos07okie on Sep 30, 2009 11:30 AM MDT reply actions