Upset Picks for Week 1

I decided to continue this series from last season.  I ended up finishing just under .500, which may not seem that good, but it was just good enough for me to finish second place.  Behind only Guru's wife, who seems to have some skills in the pick'em department!  I'll try this again and my success in the staff pick'em league will live and die with my success in this area!

Last Week: N/A
Overall Record: 0-0

*NOTE* For those who wonder, I look at the percentages from Yahoo! and take a look at my picks and compare them to what everyone else picked on that website.  If a team has under 30% then I would consider it a high risk pick, a team that has been picked between 30-40% would rank as a medium risk, and 41% to 59% would be a low risk pick.

High Risk Upset Picks:

Carolina over Philadelphia

Everyone is on the Mike Vick gravy train.  The distraction has taken away from historical fact.  The Eagles usually come out of the gates slowly and I think they will get surprised here as well.  Plus, I am not all that sure how their defense will fare after losing such a brilliant coach.  Meanwhile, the Panthers have been quietly ignored by the media and I am anxious to see if they are a playoff team or a garbage team.  The game will be close, but I give the edge to the Panthers, 24 to 21.

Washington over New York Giants

Here is a replay from 2008!  People forget that the Giants never start out well and the Redskins always start out fast.  Late in the season, the Giants get hot and the Redskins fade away into oblivion.  For that reason, I see the Giants tripping out of the gates and the Redskins coming out looking like Super Bowl contenders.  Final score, Redskins 16, Giants 13

San Francisco over Arizona

I know I am not supposed to pay attention to the preseason, but the Cardinals have looked downright horrible and the 49ers have looked somewhat decent.  I've decided to take the 49ers with a grain of salt, but Arizona was actually "trying" to get things going and failed.  It looks like the Super Bowl hangover is a real curse and the Cardinals need to prove me otherwise before I waste a pick on them.  49ers 27, Cardinals 14.

Other possible high risk upset picks I did not pursue:

Tennessee over Pittsburgh
Miami over Atlanta
Oakland over San Diego

Medium Risk Upset Picks:

I did not take any of the 30-40% underdogs this week.  Mainly because there was only one and I took the favorite Houston over the Jets.

Other possible medium risk upset picks I did not pursue:

New York Jets over Houston

Low Risk Upset Picks:

Denver over Cincinnati

Yes, I am a homer again.  More than that, I've figured out that Denver is not even close to being as bad as the Main Stream Media(MSM) believes.  I'm looking for some surprises from Josh McDaniels this week and the victory will be somewhat convincing.  Look for the time of possession as being a key factor here.  Broncos 23, Bengals 13.

Chicago over Green Bay

The Packers looked great this preseason.  I am sure they are a good football team and may make the playoffs this year, but there is one thing people might overlook.  Jay Cutler is a Hall of Fame quarterback from Weeks 1-3.  After that he becomes an average quarterback.  Therefore, I will pick Chicago to win the opener in Green Bay since we all know how Cutler loves to play away from the fans cheering for him.  Chicago 31, Green Bay 27.