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Around SBN: Post-UNC Thoughts

Denver Broncos 2009 1st Quarter Preview

After an unforgettable offseason, it is natural to turn our focus inwards.  And with the myriad concerns that Denver needs to address, and with the multiple questions that Denver faces, this would not be an unproductive endeavor.

But the enemy without deserves just as much, if not more, attention and discussion.  They, too, have unanswered questions, and unresolved dilemmas.  They too await the sound of the opening bell with trepidation and anxiety. When the opening bell rings it will be less the signal of a beginning as it is an alarm that sounds the countdown to the end.  For whom does that tocsin sound?

Denver, and thirteen other teams, will see their fates begin to wind off the skein, interminably woven together into a vast storyline, whose threads and chapters add up only to a picture of who deserves to be in the next story, the real story.  The first four chapters, Cincinnati,  Cleveland, Oakland and Dallas, all share a common theme in 2009.  Like Denver, they are all looking for a fast start to their season.  And like Denver, they are counting on the Broncos to be a key part of that fast start.


Broncos Schedule

@ Cincinnati Sun 09/13 11:00 AM MDT
Cleveland Sun 09/20 2:15 PM MDT
@ Oakland Sun 09/27 2:15 PM MDT
Dallas Sun 10/04 2:15 PM MDT


CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Bengals are a team poised to at least double their 2008 win mark of 4 games.  And they can be expected to do it with perhaps the most balanced approach they have seen in Marvin Lewis' mostly apoplectic 7 year tenure (46-49-1).  Carson Palmer, despite an injured ankle and only 19 snaps with the first team, has taken command of the offense and appears to have his classic velocity and accuracy.  Lewis has committed to a running game, and Cedric Benson is a decent enough horse to hitch the wagon to, but he has been inconsistent behind the Bengals new offensive line, and getting tackled behind the line of scrimmage may become an all too familiar sight.  The depth, including Brian Leonard from the Rams should be adequate if Benson can stay healthy and keep earning those tough, between the tackles type of yards that propelled him to a stout showing of 747 yds (career high) in 2008.  Those yards wear out defenses and open the door for those late-game bursts, and he has 4 100-yard performances to show for it.

Star-divide

Their defense also looks to once again be the dominant unit on the team, which can only aid in balancing the offensive attack.  Mike Zimmer's unit has shown steady progress with tackling and discipline, and appears poised to break into the top ten defenses this year.  Of note has been their exceptionally sturdy run defense, bolstered by the additions of Tank Johnson, Rey  Maualuga and Roy Williams.  With strong contributions from corners Jonathon Joseph and Leon Hall, they could be one of the strongest units in the league.  FS Crocker is one of the ingredients of a unit that will be physical and play with a mean streak.

Notes of Note

  • The Bengals put 23 players on IR last year, and have already got to four for 2009. 
  • Chad Johnson has shelved his Diva act and looks newly committed and functional, in a way that would be befuddling if it wasn't 85.  A happy Chad is a productive Chad, and in a twisted way you can tell he is happy by the incident out of Bengals camp involving his orange chin strap.  It's just a $7500 fine after all...
  • 35% of Cedric Benson's runs have been negative or no yardage plays, and the Bengals line gave up 7 sacks in three games.
  • The Bengals may have found a way to bring back the big play to their offense, with 12 completions over 20 yards.
  • WR Andre Caldwell will have teams who scout Bengals tape watching him very carefully before the snap.  He is a versatile player who adds Wildcat-type of functionality, as well as a consistent threat for reverses, as evidenced by his showing against KC last year.

Denver Should be Keying On....

  • Staying Healthy.  Nothing spells doom like losing starters in the first game of the season.  With this defense, Denver's offensive starters are in the crosshairs, and they will need to match the physicality and intensity if they want to get out of this matchup in one piece.  Finesse has its place, but being strong at the point of attack will help protect the players more than anything
  • Get into the backfield.  There is no better time than the present for the Broncos to pressure the Bengals Oline, especially new C Kyle Cook.  Whether it is tackling rushers in the backfield or pressuring the QB, this is Denver's greatest chance defensively to control the game.  If the Bengals get to the point of being able to drop back and pass, Denver will be in trouble.
  • Block Tank Johnson.  Its not just Johnson, but stonewalling him will take a lot of air out of the Bengals rush.  Getting RBs by him will take some extra effort, but it will also spell the beginning of the end for the Bengals D.
  • Don't sleep on STs.  In general Denver needs to be significantly improved in this area, and the preseason indicates that the attention is there, and that results can be expected.  Of note is the Bengals rookie P Kevin Huber who has shown that he can put the ball in a good spot.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Denver won't get to face the Browns right out of the gate, mores the pity.  Instead the Browns will go up against Minnesota, and at that point they just might name and settle on a starter at QB.  If history is any indication, it will be a new face on opening day, as the Browns have started 5 different QBs in the past six years.  What Denver will truly be interested in noting, however, is how well Jamal Lewis runs against the Vikings line, as the Browns are relying on the 30 year old RB to be their workhorse once again.  They have some mild changeup depth and third down backs, but nothing that says they have an answer for what happens if Jamal gets hurt, or worse, continues to average only 2.3 yards per carry.

If Lewis struggles, whoever is QB can't help but struggle too.  With the absence of Kellen Winslow, coverages will shift accordingly concerning Braylon Edwards, who despite his talent, hasn't done nearly enough in the offseason to make anyone feel comfortable with his 19 dropped passes in 2008.  He can barely be expected to acknowledge them.  If Cribbs continues to come on strong in his campaign to be a #2 WR, then that could significantly help the offense, but historically dominant return men who convert to WR either fail the conversion or decline rapidly in production at the return spot.

By moving players around on the Dline and picking up the mysteriously injured Shaun Rogers, the lineplay is expected to be significantly shored up, but there is no definitive proof in yet.  If it is upgraded, and the QB pressures start to come, than the Browns solid group of starting DBs, including SS Abe Elam, should get a chance to shine.  They aren't the kind of secondary to make their name getting their hands on the ball, but they can rattle the receivers and create confusion in the backfield.  If they have a weakness it is that they can be picked apart by patient, smart QBs.

Notes of Note

  • RB Jamal Lewis has carried the ball 2,399 times in the past 10 years.
  • After only 17 sacks last year the Browns, like the Broncos, are converting to an attacking defense under the eye of Rob Ryan.
  • 4 offensive lineman were signed by the Browns since the beginning of august.  Depth could be a problem.
  • The Browns 26th ranked defense underwent average changes, most notably a scheme change which required a NT.  The same medicine was often prescribed for Denver prior to the complete gutting of staff and personnel, leaving only 3 starters intact from last year. 

Denver Should be Keying On...

  • Obviously the starting QB makes a difference, but in this case the difference is profound, as Anderson and Quinn are cut from very different cloths, with Quinn being an accurate mid and short range guy, while Anderson can complete the long ball, something that may be in demand if the rushing offense struggles to maintain long drives.
  • Kamerion Wimbley.  Wimbley has flipped sides in the LB corp to see if it can bolster his ability to pressure the backfield, and the early indications from preseason are that he can indeed return to his 11-sack rookie season form.
  • Watch for penalties.  Despite Mangini's strident approach to a team that committed over 100 penalties in 2008, the Browns can still be expected to make their fair share of mistakes, especially on offense, and especially before the snap, Cleveland's weakest area.  Denver should get a number of first and second and long opportunities on defense, and how they respond could set the tone for the whole day
  • Rookie RB James Davis.  The 195th overall selection is the one true backup to Jamal Lewis, and could be a significant contributor by years end.  In the short term, he is worth keeping an eye on, as his quickness could make him an early favorite to supplant Lewis for most carries in each game.  However at 215 the productive tailback will likely wear down under too many carries, so an injury to Lewis is still the Browns worst case scenario for their running game.

oAKLAND rAIDERS

The elephant in the room when talking about the raiders is what can only be termed a "culture of losing."  And as long as the franchise is defined by the bony, knee jerk reactions of Al Davis, that culture will have a very hard time changing.

Known as a "player's owner" Davis' solution for the 31st ranked rushing defense in the league for 2 years running was to completely gut the defensive coaching staff, including Rob Ryan, leaving the players virtually untouched.  The early indications in preseason are that outside of making Nmandi Asomugha the highest paid corner in the game, little that oakland has done on defense will pan out.  Drubbings at the hands of San Francisco and New Orleans, left the team back in the rut it was in before the Tampa Bay game at the end of 2008:  seemingly unable and perhaps even unwilling to be competitive.  Despite saving his job with a win against the playoff hungry Buccanneers, Tom Cable will be the fall guy if the "culture of losing" continues into its 7th season, a run of 11+ losses per year, which is a record of futility unmatched in the history of the NFL.

But all that early drafting has harvested a bumper crop of talent for the raiders, especially offensively, so they are still a threat to any team who sleeps on them.  Or at least anyone who sleeps more than 7hours on them...  Oh heck, you'd have to have died in the film room not to be competitive against this team, but if that happens, those teams should be careful...  Of note is the three headed monster of McFadden, Bush, and Fargas at RB.  McFadden has gamebreaking ability, and unless he gets injured again, chances are he will get all the touches he needs to prove it.  Additionally, and this may be tough to hear, but Jamarcus Russell continues to improve as a young player, and he has tools that will be a threat in the near future, if he is used correctly, and put in good situations.

Notes of Note

  • raiders have allowed over 500 yards rushing in two preseason games against SanFrancisco and New Orleans.
  • Chaz Schilens, oakland's 2nd leading WR will be out for the early part of the season with a broken bone in his foot.  He may be able to return by the Denver game, but the timetable isn't solid yet.  He is a legitimate threat.
  • 10 different RBs went over a hundred yards on the existing raider defensive personnel.
  • After an unbecoming bout of partying after the New Orleans loss, Cable felt compelled to remind his players that they were "grown men" and would need to act accordingly to handle the distractions of not being in a supervised training camp environment.  Culture of losing-1, Cable-0.  Cable, of course, also is facing criminal charges for breaking an assistant coaches face.  Cable-1, Culture of Winning someday-0.
  • The raiders simply do not stack and shed with any consistency on the Dline, but that could change with the addition of Richard Seymour in a trade from the Patriots.  Seymour could stack and shed quite well in the NE 2-gap scheme, and in oakland he will be asked to man a single gap as a DE on runstopping downs, and then move inside in nickle formations, where he would take on a single gap off center.  I say could change because early reports are that Seymour isn't very happy with the trade...

Denver Should be Keying On...

  • Running through the middle of the raider defense.  This is the raiders' weakest area on a dysfunctional team, and they can be positively gashed here.  Success in this area also prompts the "lay down and die" attitude that is part of the culture that Cable is battling, so queuing it up is always a good idea.  The 122 rushing TDs that oakland has allowed in the past 6 years is the worst in the NFL.  Runs up the gut to score.
  • By the time Oakland comes around to play the Broncos, Asomugha should be either completely recovered from his wrist injury, or the Broncos will have a good idea of how much he is struggling with it.  On the opposite side, Chris Johnson is an anomaly, a 29 year old CB who has to prove himself all over again despite his play last year.  It is just too unusual, not just for a player at the CB position to bloom so late, but for it to happen in oakland. 
  • 2TE sets.  Whether Russell has developed enough to efficiently run multiple looks out of a 2TE set remains to be seen, but the best receiver on the team and the best rookie receiver on the team, both happen to be TEs.  Zach Miller and Brandon Meyers can put significant stress on defensive seams, and Denver has 3 weeks to really tighten down the seams and flats before they go to oakland and face a real challenge at the position.  Denver's OLBs and nickle coverage guys need to get it together within the first three games.
  • Darius Heyward-Bey.  The claim out of oaktown is that DHB is an instant double-team.  If that is true, the oakland offense will be that much more effective.  The problem for Denver, is that there may not be enough info by that third game to say whether DHB is panning out or not.  He and Louis Murphy will be brought along slowly with the running game and TEs taking on the brunt of offensive work, so game three might be the earliest that Davis chooses to start pushing his speedy deep threat.  Denver may very likely be the test, so a DHB surprise package may be in the works for them.  They need to be disciplined and ready, to shut down the threat before it gets started.

DALLAS COWBOYS

The Cowboys find themselves in a situation eerily similar to Mike Shanahan's Final Days in Denver.  They are buying into a "One Player Away" mythology, spurning depth throughout their units, seemingly failing to coach their players up well and suffering from an unhealthy organizational structure.  The last is the root problem, and the most pressing.

I wouldn't begin to pin this solely on Jerry Jones, but he has done little to step back and assuage the tides of mediocrity that have overcome the Cowboys since 1996.  Since that time the Cowboys have never won a postseason game and have had a losing record in December, when the games that get you into the playoffs are played.  The coaching and staffing of the team has consisted of yesmen, all of whom have been unable to correct Dallas' course, and all of whom have taken the fall for Jones.  The talent has vascillated between legitimate probowlers, character concerns and lipstick on a pig, and nowhere is that more apparent than the play of Tony Romo.  His stats are the stuff of fantasy football dreams, his off field persona is mottled with unnecessary celebrity, and his personal record in December and January consists of twice as many losses as wins, amid slumping and downright horrible play.

Their running game and receiving corp are strong, however, especially with the addition of Roy Williams and subtraction of Terrell Owens.  Add in Witten and Felix Jones and Marion Barber and the offense should be reliable, and emminently capable.  Just as it has been for some time, which, to date, hasn't led to wins.  Ditto for a defense with a perrennial defensive MVP in the near unblockable Demarcus Ware, yet the wins don't follow him around.

The Cowboys biggest issue personnelwise is the utter lack of depth.  It spans units and in a twist of irony that only Mike Shanahan could appreciate, the Cowboys already handicapped 2008 draft (no selections in the first 68 picks) has been fairly decimated by injuries, and will be reduced to near insignificance in 2009, and perhaps beyond.  What few rookies managed to remain healthy are either seriously underperforming (Mike Mickens, CB out of Cincinnati), or not critical to the success of the team (K David Buehler out of USC, a kickoff specialist only for now).

Broncos' fans should shudder at the picture being painted here, especially given the fact that Jerry Jones can't fire himself.  Mike Shanahan's ego, for better AND worse, overcame the organization.  Fortunately, there was a check and balance in place, and Bowlen mercifully executed it.  Cowboys' fans have no such hope, and are left with only faith and luck, neither of which has had any effect on the team in over 13 years.

Notes of Note

  • Cowboys lack depth at every position along the offensive line, and were forced to PUP tackle Robert Brewster, despite a severely torn pectoral muscle that was ruled season ending, initially.  The report on the injury is still the same, but without anyone capable of stepping in, they had little choice but to roll the dice in case he made a miraculous recovery by week six.  Rolling the dice on medical miracles?  Broncos' fans are all to familiar with that particular form of delusion.
  • The Cowboy's first pick in the 2008 draft didn't come until pick #69 in round 3.  Of the 12 total picks, 5 spent all or some of the preseason injured, 4 others are considered for STs play only, only 1 is a legitimate backup, and the rest were cut.  Of the STers one is a kickoff specialist only.
  • The Cowboy's depth problems include quarterback, where John Kitna backs up Romo, all positions along the offensive line, at the four linebacker positions, and at safety and cornerback, where despite Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick sharing time, they still have converted a SS to CB just to cover the depth issues.  Just like the Denver defense of the past three years, there is no one to fill in when someone goes down, and that is a situation that will snowball out of control, despite the best halfhearted efforts of the frontoffice to build through the draft.

Denver Should be Keying On

  • Special Teams Play.  Dominating the Cowboys in any gameplan starts with pressuring their overmatched special teams.  As Denver fans know, the failure to build a team correctly hits special teams play hardest and first.  If Denver can dominate this aspect of the game, the Cowboys will always be in a compromised position.
  • Penalties.  Again, if Denver can do the little things right, they put themselves in a position to compete with Dallas even if Denver isn't producing terribly well on offense and defense.  Some teams will make you suffer if you can't establish your strength's early.  Not the Cowboys.  Just like Denver's dwindling redzone production and defense over the past few years, the Cowboys will consistently lose the penalty battle if you just let them.
  • Turnovers.  Dallas' secondary has also struggled to generate turnovers, being the third team since 1969 to generate over 45 sacks but only single digit interceptions.  Denver has 3 weeks to turn this attacking defense that Nolan is building into a turnover producing machine.  Likewise, Dallas will also be searching for the magic formula.  The first team to find it by week four will be the team in the driver's seat for this matchup.

17 recs  |  Comment 62 comments |

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I get smarter with every MHR article

In addition to the insights about early opponents, I had too look up “tocsin.” Thanks, Styg!

by CoastalBronco on Sep 9, 2009 4:46 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

A great word

not really applicable anymore, but I think it summons the right image…

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 6:06 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ochocinco smacktalking alread

as per VicLombardi: Chad Esteban Ocho Cinco says he will “embarrass” Champ Bailey this Sunday…hear him roar on our Preseason Update tonight (via twitter)

The commenter formerly known as "Dashiell".

by underdog on Sep 9, 2009 4:52 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Its times like these that I am glad we have Champ

 85 has the talent to back up his taunting, and this is exactly the kind of pregame stuff that gets him pumped up before a lights out fantasy showing. Denver doesn’t need that in their first game of 09…

But then i remember that he is talking about Champ here… good luck with that CJ buddy!

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 6:08 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just started reading, but I had to comment that every time I read styg's work

I hear the voice of the NFL Films narrator from a few decades ago. It gives me chills…strange since usually I hear my own voice reading things(my own included).

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

by Tim Lynch on Sep 9, 2009 4:58 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

no frozen tundra here...

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 6:08 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

WOW Styg...

 You are totally awesome Dude! How the heck did U put all that together? This is info that I would hope, well I’m sure, that the coaching staff has thought of, but not necessarily in this advanced point in time, but info that is certainly helpful to us as fans!

Much thanks, and totally appreciated. Great read and now I am ready for these games like never before. We really R looking good! 13-3 and super bowl win THIS YEAR! LOL, but I can dream non the less.

It is better to keep silent, and appear to be wise, then to ramble on and remove all doubt! The Wisest Man, Solomon.

by metalman5050 on Sep 9, 2009 5:02 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

thanks Metal

glad to help!

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 6:09 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great read.

Thank you sir.

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

by Tim Lynch on Sep 9, 2009 5:10 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

no problem

I had fun getting caught up on all the teams we will be facing, and reading up in their blogs and media guides for little useful factoids and insights. Glad to pass it along.

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 6:10 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

as always, an excellent read, Styg!

Rec’d

"When a new coach comes in and expects hard work, a team attitude and personal accountability over a personal thirst for glory, I won’t fault him for the reactions of a few selfish individual." ~Hunter Ansley, InDenverTimes.com

by Colorado_Kitten on Sep 9, 2009 5:23 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks kitten!

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 6:10 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mmmmmmm,a delicious four-course meal

Cleveland scares me. I didn’t realize until a few days ago how good their defense is. I think their achilles heel is the offensive line and running game. If we can stop Benson and put pressure on Palmer we have a chance. Otherwise the Chris and Chad show will be a horror flick. Benson has never really panned out, so stopping him and turning loose our pass rushers is our best bet. I hope our own running game shows up. It hasn’t been impressive so far but McDaniels will hopefully take the wraps off a pass offense designed to set up the run. We should haul out this article again, or at least the relevant part, before each of the three games that follow.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 9, 2009 5:28 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree with

pulling the article out before each game as a reminder. (new updates won’t hurt either)

by papasteven on Sep 9, 2009 5:30 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

+2

It is better to keep silent, and appear to be wise, then to ramble on and remove all doubt! The Wisest Man, Solomon.

by metalman5050 on Sep 9, 2009 5:36 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I will do that

though HT’s chalktalk will supplant this for specific game coverage. Each week I will post updates and reminders to help hold the thread of the season’s storyline together. My goal is to keep the who-what of the W-L record at the forefront of our imagination as the season progresses….

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 6:16 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I worry about Cinci too

opening day on the road, maybe a last minute fan rally to prevent a blackout, Denver still piecing things together, a defense that is not only good but looks really mean. For the Broncos’ fans who liked Reyrey, the spectre of Rey’s Reyvenge…

But I love that one of our strongest preseason showings has been getting into the backfield and pressuring the QB. That has the best chance of keeping us in the game. If the offense can be relatively mistake free, and just pull away throughout the game, I would feel comfortable. As it is, I think we will be on the edge of our seats as the Broncos lay to hold onto a 1-score lead late in the game… And this isn’t Palmer’s first rodeo.

Come on knowmo! A late 69 yard scamper to put us up by two scores would be awesome!!!

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 6:14 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whoops, I said Cleveland, didn't I?

Glad you understood who I meant.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 9, 2009 7:32 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

The good news is

from what I saw during the preseason, there is some actual legitimacy to thinking we can pressure Palmer (as opposed to last season). So our best bet is an actual possibility. :-)

Hoping Orton’s finger is okay; looking forward to seeing all our weapons out there: Royal, Hillis, BMarsh, Moreno, and Scheffler. So many possibilities with that lineup it’s hard not to get excited. :-)

"When a new coach comes in and expects hard work, a team attitude and personal accountability over a personal thirst for glory, I won’t fault him for the reactions of a few selfish individual." ~Hunter Ansley, InDenverTimes.com

by Colorado_Kitten on Sep 9, 2009 6:17 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I keep forgetting about scheff...

that boy has been under wraps. Scheff and Hillis make any offensive package christmas mana…

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 6:20 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thankyou Mr Styg

Very good read. As stated above one moer opportunity to learn thru a master. It reinforces my positive outlook on the team. I’m not a 13-3 guy but I’ll settle for 9-7 with a playoff win in the first round. (We win the AFC west)

by papasteven on Sep 9, 2009 5:30 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I shouldn't do it

but I keep reading predictions for the Broncos’ record in the West…bloggers, columnists, anyone…

I have lost track of the number of times I have seen us at 6-10 and tied with the faders…with the faders taking 2nd place in the division. Ridiculous. They can put us at 6-10 if they want, but for the love of all that is holy the faders will NOT place better than us in the division….

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 6:19 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent work! rec'd.

It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09

by firstfan on Sep 9, 2009 5:33 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks First!

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 6:19 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why not 3-1?

It might be optimistic, but really no reason to be too shocked by a 3-1 start….might quiet the naysayers until the meat of the schedule takes hold….obviously, any hope of a successful season starts with a good series of games right out of the gate

Hugo Norton

by Hugo Norton on Sep 9, 2009 5:41 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

3-1, 4-0, 2-2

the only records that I don’t think are realistic are 0-4 and 1-3. But I could see us losing at Cinci on opening day in a last minute heartbreaker, and then to Dallas in week four. Dallas is clearly a team going the wrong way, but they are still a very talented roster. On any given week they could put it together, and strings of momentum laden games are their specialty. Denver was a scary team to play early last year because of the offensive weapons, but they weren’t a consistent threat over any period of time, whether it was four quarters, or a full season. I feel the same way aobut Dallas this year.

I think we could play an awful game and still find a way to beat the Browns or raiders…

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 6:27 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd rather be playing Dallas in December

when they start to implode. As it is, I’m glad this one is going to be in our house. That might be enough to make the difference. Also, by then Orton and the offense might have gotten the kinks ironed out and be rolling.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 9, 2009 7:38 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would LOVE

to see two home wins and a divisonal win in those first four games. that would be at least 3-1 and I would call that a fine showing!

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 7:42 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

And welcome aboard Hugo

writer, architect, philosopher… I can definitely sympathize!

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 6:29 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Styg, wonderful reading!

Cincy and Oakland are two of the disaster organizations in the league and have no cred with me. They are headless horsemen, out of control, and it beats me why Lewis or Cable get paid to coach to coach in this league. Cleveland does not have an offense and we all can remember how remember how Royal and Hillis lit them up? I don’t think we are going to be able to shut down Dallas and their weaponry. So unless they shut down themselves, we would have to win a shootout and that would be iffy. Broncos should be 3 and 1 after that.

"Kool-Aid Kool Aid, Tastes Great, We Want Kool Aid, Can't Wait"

by littletinybroncos on Sep 9, 2009 6:37 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed about Lewis and Cable

when I hear the comments those guys make about their teams, they just sound clueless, like their head is in the sand.

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 7:44 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

The nice thing about opening @ Cincy

is that we will see, among other things, if Goodman can step up, and if Champ is still his ol’ self.

"Kool-Aid Kool Aid, Tastes Great, We Want Kool Aid, Can't Wait"

by littletinybroncos on Sep 9, 2009 6:40 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

And our nickle will need to step up

which should be the ’Phons….

Let’s say that Champ and Goodman deliver the goods… than I think we are talking about consistent matchups between our nickle and Coles. I’ll be watching that battle in the secondary as clsoely as I can. Phons won’t win em all, but a few early successes could go a long ways…

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 7:46 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Coles is the slot receiver, right?

Does the nickel usually cover the slot receiver? What qualities does a nickel corner need as compared to the other two? Is the emphasis more on quickness, so as to cover a guy who makes sharp cuts, than flat out speed? If that’s the case I think Phonz is an ideal nickel back.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 10, 2009 8:42 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think coles will line up at both slot and #2

and I think Phons will get his share of covering him, possibly in both locations. The best trait for a slot coverage guy (on a list of many things that should be good), is a very good turna nd swivel, i.e. “good hips”. The receiver can break left or right, so the DB needs to backpedal well, and be able to turn either direction quickly. I think this fits the Phons, but we will see what Coles can do against him.

Ideally it would be nice to see Phons disrupting the line of scrimmage with bump coverage on the slot, but I don’t think that truly suits him, and it isn’t worth doing at the cost of scheme, but it is a great way to “corral” a receiver,a nd of course, screw up timing routes.

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 10, 2009 11:48 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Awesome read, styg

This will be my first regular season of actually keeping close tabs on MHR, and I’m getting more and more excited for it, the more of these types of articles that I read. Bring on the Bengals! Can the season start, already?

by BroncosBassist on Sep 9, 2009 6:52 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I think you'll love it here

HT’s ChalkTalk will be coming out tomorrow I think, and it is always a great primer for the weeks matchups.

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 7:47 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lookin forward to it

I’ve loved the off-season, and I used to read an occasional article before I joined, but this year should be awesome.

by BroncosBassist on Sep 10, 2009 4:35 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just to point out something

“After only 17 sacks last year the Browns, like the Broncos, are converting to an attacking defense under the eye of Rex Ryan.” You meant Rob. Rex is with the Jets.

Otherwise, great read.

"I'm a Michigan Wolverine, which means I'm the only one who watches 'Rudy' hoping he pulls a hamstring or pops a quad." - Rich Eisen

by Rob4Braves on Sep 9, 2009 7:02 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

rats

I had it completely backwards, including having Rex for the fired oakland coordinator… fixed one, forgot to fix the other. At least I didn’t call either one Bud…

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 9, 2009 7:38 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nuts and bolts....

another great article, Styg. It was well-written, as usual, and contained no fluff, just brass-tacks football. I love it!

-Harvey J. Neptune

"Practice doesn't make perfect. PERFECT practice makes perfect." - Vince Lombardi

by HarvJNep2n on Sep 9, 2009 9:59 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

the beauty of dealing with our opponents

as opposed to the local soap opera is that it is much easier to get down to the nitty gritty. We have been turned inward so much this offseason, that I really couldn’t wait to work on this post once I started researching it. Good times are here again, lol!

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 10, 2009 1:40 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Styg

You’ve given me my "cheat sheet" for the first quarter. Thank you!

by Endzone on Sep 9, 2009 10:00 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I hope it is prescient

I probably don’t need to include a disclaimer that this is my personal feelings towards the coming matchups, but my predictor has been broken down since about 20 minutes before the draft. I feel pretty good about this outlook though, and hopefully I’m getting back into the swing of things now that real football is here…

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 10, 2009 1:42 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brilliant - and rec'd

I’ll be referring to this all quarter. Thanks, styg – your usual level of greatness continues unabated…

Hillis/Moreno in '09

by Emmett Smith on Sep 9, 2009 10:54 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I feel like Favre

really this is mostly just compiled data. It was fun, and nice to be researching real football again. I’ll be revisiting these ideas week to week,a nd of course reviewing and previewing future quarters as well.

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 10, 2009 1:45 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Toscin? I'll ding a ling a ling all the way to 3-1 this first quarter.

Excellent and we could go 4-0 if the defense has very good games. Rec’d for sure! 13-3 Baby!!!

by bfree2bronc on Sep 10, 2009 12:06 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

defense could be key indeed

stopping both Cinci and Dallas’ offenses could be the difference between 2-2 and 4-0.

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 10, 2009 1:46 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's why Doom is key

it seems to me. He’s apparently thriving at outside linebacker. Not only does it make it easier for him to rush the passer, I don’t think he’s as much of a run liability at OLB as he was at DE. He’s at least one example of a player fitting the 3-4 much better than the 4-3. If we can get a strong rush from the other OLB that’ll really help our pass defense. I’m not clear if Ayers is backing up Doom or Haggan. Has Haggan been doing well at pressuring the QB? I’m thinking that Ayers, once he develops, should be a nice fit at LOLB because of his run-stopping ability. It looks like a lot of our ability to pressure the QB in preseason has been becausef Fields and Baker have been able to push the pocket, preventing the QB from stepping up to avoid the outside rush. That wasn’t something I was expecting to see.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 10, 2009 8:58 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Ayer's has moved around more than anyone

on the defense, so I think they are loading him up with some serious roving responsibilities. i would imagine that he is backing up both positions.

Great point on DOOM having his run stopping liabilities lessened. He will magically appear to be a more complete player by virtue of this, and this will mean more consistency from him and the defense from play to play, and most assuredly accolades for his expected production. Shades of demarcus Ware…

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 10, 2009 12:01 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

thx for these notes.....great insights

I think Cleveland is gonna really surprise people though……I have them as our toughest opponent in the first four games. We’ll see if I have no clue or not……the coach familiarity is high between the two teams with Mangini having Dabolie and another guy all from NE…..should be a good tactical battle between Belicheck LTs

by BideshiBronco on Sep 10, 2009 4:32 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

excellent points

this view is fascinating to me, because for the life of me I can’t get worried about CLE… I hope others who feel the way you do can add additional input as well.

I like that we are playing them in our home opener. That HAS to be advantage Broncos, but a lot of it comes down to the big Mo’ coming out of Cincy…

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 10, 2009 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Clarify views on Dallas?

You pan on Dallas pretty hard, but some of your comments back away from that….

For example, you rip on Tony Romo, which I don’t think is very fair. Dallas as a team goes as Romo goes… and he’s a VERY GOOD player. If you ignore the losses when Romo was hurt last year, Dallas was a VERY GOOD team that easily makes the playoffs.

Kitna is also a very solid backup, so I don’t get your complaints about Dallas’ QB dept. Last year, Johnson was horrible so what you say was true, but Kitna has proven to be a solid (if not great) starter, not just a solid backup. Yes, he’s had injury issues (you would too playing behind the Detroit O-line), but when healthy he’s looked very serviceable.

Where I see Dallas having issues is O-line, LB and secondary depth.

The O-line just isn’t that good at pass protection, and relies on Romo’s extremely strong pocket awareness/movement. A few injuries, either to the O-line or Romo, and that becomes a big issue for the team. Kitna will be good for a game or 2 if Romo goes down, but I question his ability to stay healthy for more than a few games with the hits he’ll take behind the O-line.

In the secondary, Newman is a stud cover guy (with really bad hands), but I have no real confidence in anyone else. Same can be said for Ware vs. the other LBs.

Arguments about winning in December, etc. are small-sample size cherry picking… Dallas is a very good team with some depth issues that prevent them from being a consisntently great team. Are the beatable: absolutely… but they also have the elite talents at numerous positions to match up well vs. just about anybody in the NFL

If the team (and Romo in particular) stays generally healthy, Dallas should be a superbowl contender… if not, they could win 6 games. But the same could be said about Indy, New Orleans, etc. as teams which are dependent on elite QB play.

In some ways, comparisons to last year’s Broncos is apt (although I think their defense is signifianctly better than ours was)… we fell apart when Bailey and the RBs got hurt… but it doesn’t mean the team wasn’t EXTREMELY dangerous any given week due to the elite Oline, very good QB, etc.

by cjfarls on Sep 10, 2009 9:40 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Dallas

I think you clarified his views pretty well yourself. Maybe you feel Kitna is a good backup and he doesn’t. There is certainly a huge drop off there but when isn’t there from a starting QB.

However I think you point out yourself that almost across the board they struggle with depth. O-Line, LB, and Secondary depth are big, and I would add to that but you yourself pointed out that depth concerns span offense and defense. They have depth issues.

Romo is great which he points out but he has not had any success in the pivotal playoff game atmosphere towards the end of the season. The Cowboys are my paper tiger team or my MSM built team. They have some great superstars at great positions but prove the rule that in the NFL that isn’t how you win. You win with a great team.

Tis better not to throw it to the deep receiver but the open receiver.

by Kfustud on Sep 10, 2009 10:58 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

paper tiger?

The problem is, this “paper tiger” has a lot of bite.

Folks seem to equate “they have no depth” with them being a bad team.

I look at from the other side. They have the talent to go 13-3. They just are built in a way that they could win 6 only games if the luck breaks bad (injuries to Romo, Ware or Newman), vs. other teams where a big loss might drop them to 10-6.

So “paper tiger” isn’t the right term…

From a materials point of view, their roster is more crystal than it is metal. Dallas has a “brittle” roster design where they are really tough, but if they break, they shatter rather than bend… but it doesn’t mean they aren’t as hard or harder than a team made of wood.

by cjfarls on Sep 10, 2009 11:44 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you see where I am coming from

and I agree “paper tiger” doesn’t apply to Dallas.

I believe that the Cowboys are holding themselves back organizationally, just like the Broncos were. It may manifest itself at different positions on the field, but I think it is fundamentally the same problem: control is vested in too inadequate of a capability, and the result is that the TEAM has been disintegrating since 96. I wouldn’t attempt to pin down the exact inadequacy, though I know Jones is a major ingredient, I’ll leave that to Cowboy fans to figure out.

Because the TEAM is disentegrating, they have depth problems riddling their roster, and that leads to late season swoons, almost perrenially, just like it did with Denver. That is part of why Shanny was so paranoid about injuries: he knew that his starters were his only chance. A helathy organization knows that your 53-man roster needs to be the strongest in football, not your 22 man roster. Dallas is learning this the hard way, just like Denver did…

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 10, 2009 11:57 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think late season swoons are more than a depth issue

although I wouldn’t deny that’s a factor. But I think a major problem is Romo himself. I don’t think he handles pressure well. I’ve noticed a pattern with this kind of player. They often do well when nothing much is expected of them, but begin to buckle as expectations rise. I saw it in a Trailblazer named Robinson, who performed heroically as a rookie in the playoffs against the Spurs when the starting center went down. But for the rest of his career he did an annual disappearing act in the playoffs. Every year at that time of year his outside jumper would desert him.

I did some checking on Romo. His QB rating for the last four games of 2006, his first year as a starter, was 95.1. In his one playoff game it was 89.6. But that was also the game in which, as the holder for the trying PAT, he fumbled the snap. On the one play they had to have he let it slip through his fingers, and I don’t buy the slippery ball as an excuse. Fast forward to the last four games of 2007 and his QB rating was 62.7, and 64.7 in the playoff loss. In the last four of 2008 his rating was 70.2, and in the must-win last game, the 44-6 loss to Philly, his rating was a miserable 55.8. When the team’s leader buckles under the pressure the team has no backbone. I thought you nailed it when you pointed to his late-season pattern of failure.

But as you also intimated failure starts at the top, and as you noted Jones can’t fire himself. Well, he could, but he won’t. He’s following in the footsteps of Al Davis, and his scoreboard intransigence is simply one more indication of an ego out of control. Your analysis of Dallas was a thing of beauty and the highlight of your article, and while it might be possible to differ on a detail here and there it was overall and in most of its details remarkably insightful. Or so it seemed to me. Your piece gets the Vulcan Academy seal of approval.

"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.

by spock on Sep 10, 2009 3:19 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Small sample size theater

Another explanation of some of the late season swoons is the Defensive teams he played against (playoff teams, and defensive powerhouses like Baltimore, Philly, etc.)… those teams make LOTS of VERY GOOD QBs look bad, regardless of whether it is December, or September, etc.

Basically, I just don’t buy the argument that we can judge anything about a player or coach by looking at a very small subset of games and ignoring the broader context. Everyone thought Elway and Peyton Manning couldn’t “win the big games” either… and then they went on and became Super Bowl champs. However, the reality is that they were no more “chokers” before the the SB win than they were afterward… we just had a small sample size by which to judge them.

Picking out 12 games (or in your case, 8 games, since you point out Romo played well in at least 4 of them, and Dallas doesn’t even get in the position for the botched kick, etc. if he doesn’t play well to that point) out of a 40+ game career is just bad analysis with no justification in stats or repeatability.

In hearing more details from Styg, I think we largely agree on Dallas as a whole.

I think the only thing I might (very slightly) disagree with is how important depth is vs. elite starters… while obviously depth is important in a sport where injuries are the norm, a team of 53 “middle-tier starter” quality players might be in aggregate the most “talented” team in the league… and they would lose most every game because other team’s elite players would eat them for lunch. The Wares, Romos, Fitzgeralds, Haynesworths, etc. of the league would blow up the “okay” guys and allow a team with less depth to dictate scheme on the super deep team. In the late 1990s, I don’t think Denver was probably ever the “deepest” team in the NFL, but superstars like Elway, Davis, Atwater, etc. put them over the top.

Ideally you want both elite talent to dictate scheme, and lots of depth to deal with injuries, rotations, etc…. but the reality of a salary-cap and Free-Agency constrained league is that it is always a dynamic balance.

Some teams will find elite players like Elway, Manning, Fitzgerald, Warren Sapp, etc. and ride them all the way to a Super Bowl, then fall apart when they get old or hurt. Other teams, like Tennessee or Balt for example, are more simply just really deep and have consistent success over time hoping for that “one more player” or lucky year that puts them over the top…

I think both are valid ways to build a team, and both can be successful.

by cjfarls on Sep 10, 2009 4:06 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

More example of "super deep team" vs "brittle" rosters

Look at Miami last year… they have “good” players throughout the team, but few “great” players. With Brady’s injury that, was enough for a division championship.

The other type of team might be AZ… which I think has VERY little depth, but super elit guys like Fitz, Adrian Wilson, Dockett and Warner which let them dominate deeper teams like Philly and Carolina all the way to the super Bowl.

My guess is Miami sustains some level of success much longer than AZ does… but would you trade that for a SB appearance that was one drive from a world championship?

by cjfarls on Sep 10, 2009 4:16 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your intro

was subtlety woven and the analysis concise. Fittingly Hugo like. Thanks for the deep thinking sir.

"You give 100 percent in the first half of the game, and if that isn't enough, in the second half you give what's left." – Yogi Berra
"We don't stop playing because we grow old; We grow old because we stop playing." -- George Bernard Shaw
Breaking jaws or the NFL in Oakland who cares? Fall on your pirate’s sword - Ponderosa

by KaptainKirk on Sep 10, 2009 10:38 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Appreciate it Kap'n

If I could write one thing that could be compared to Hugo’s work I would consider it a payment to Hugo on a debt I can never repay.

Precision in thought, concision in style, decision in life.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 10, 2009 11:58 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

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