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Week-17 Suspect: The Kansas City Chiefs

This week, as I was building my statistical "profile" of this week's opponent, I thought I would team up with MHR's own Steve Nichols (hoosierteacher), in order to create a more official case file of Denver's next suspect: The Kansas City Chiefs.

Hopefully, by studying what others (including our own Denver Broncos) have done to the Chiefs, we will get a better understanding of what the Broncos are likely going to do on Sunday to get the win.  

We constructed a stat sheet of what it looks like when the Chiefs lose.  For reference purposes, we looked at all 12 of Kansas City's losses from the current 2009 season: 

Enjoy this one.  I know you will.

Star-divide

Case Front:  Report 09-12109 Denver Broncos Sheriff's Dept.

(from) Lead Agency:  MileHighReport.com Town Marshal Lt. TJ Johnson

Consultation Request (to):  Denver Broncos Sheriff's Dept. Criminal Investigations; Assigned to Lt. Steve Nichols (cover "HoosierTeacher")

Priority: Pending

Forensic Assistant Assigned: N/A

Status:  Open and Approved

12-31-09    1533 hrs.    Signal 5

On the above date and time, I Detective Lt. Nichols of the Denver Broncos Sheriff's Dept. (Badge #860) received a formal request from MHR Town Marshall Lt. TJ Johnson for consultation regarding case 09-12109.  The request was assigned by Sheriff Bena (#702), and copies of the request and acceptance were forwarded to and approved by the district atty's office (see attached 01-A).  Case as follows:

Lt. Johnson is investigating an entity which goes by the name of Kansas City Chiefs.  Entity is considered the prime suspect in a series of thefts from alleged victim which goes by the name Denver Broncos over a period of several years.  It is alleged that the Chiefs (hereafter referred to as KC) have robbed the Broncos (hereafter referred to as DEN) in "end of the season contests".  Despite a disparity between the abilities of the two teams which favors Denver, documentation tends to show that KC has beaten DEN near the end of the NFL season, particularly in December contests hosted in Arrowhead Stadium.

None of the above information is in dispute.  However, this year DEN managed to overcome KC in a December contest.  With a playoff berth on the line, DEN faces the potential to be victimized at home on 01-3-10.  Because of the potential for violence by the subject KC, Lt. Johnson has requested a profile of the KC team and advice for further action.

The following profile was worked up by Special Agent TheDudeAbides of the Bureau of Football Investigations (Forensic File 12109 - PSY01):

The Profile

CHIEFSOPPONENT
Points 16 30
1st Qtr 1 7
2nd Qtr 6 7
3rd Qtr 3 7
4th Qtr 7 9
Overtime 0 0.5
First Downs 16 20
Rushing 6 8
Passing 9 11
Penalty 1 1
3rd Down Conv Pct 27.14% 41.53%
4th Down Conv Pct 45.83% 25.00%
Red Zone Conv Pct 58.33% 54.72%
Goal to Go Conv Pct 58.33% 50.70%
Avg. Gain Per Play 4.48 5.86
Net Yards Rushing 110 167
Total Rushing Plays 26 36
Avg. Gain Per Rush 4.13 4.54
Net Yards Passing 178 220
Times Sacked 3 1
Yards Lost on Sacks 16 7
Gross Yards Passing 194 227
Pass Attempts 35 29
Pass Completions 19 17
Completion Pct 57.01% 59.73%
Avg. Gain Per Pass 4.73 7.02
Interceptions 1 1
Fumbles / Fum. Lost 2/1 1/1
Penalties 6 6
Penalty Yards 42 45
Punts 6 4
Gross Punting Average 44.48 44.00
Touchbacks 0 1
Inside20 3 2
Net Punting Average 39.88 39.03
Punt Return Avg. 5.25 8.55
Kickoff Return Yards 107 81
Kickoff Return Avg. 18.18 21.77
Time of Possession 27:43:00 32:50:00

 

 Based on the above profile, Special Agent Abides made the following conclusions:

It's clear from looking at the data that the suspect has not played well this year in almost all of their games. They have been dominated in almost all of the statistical categories.  In summary:

1)  The suspect is susceptible to both the run and the pass, giving up (on a per-game-basis)  over 150 yards on the ground and 220 yards through the air.  This has caused the suspect to lose the time-of-possession battle.

2) The suspect tends to be weak on 3rd downs, converting only 27.14 % of the time.  This has cut drives short, contributed to a lower average gain per drive, and is also reflected in the time of possession statistic.  

3) The suspect gives up almost 3 sacks per game.  This indicates a sub-par offensive line.  Elvis Dumervil should be able to take advantage of this with a multi-sack game.  It appears as if blitzing the suspect is not a necessity.  

4) The suspect gives up twice as many points as he scores.  Moreover, the suspect gives up about 1 touchdown per quarter.  This would tend to suggest that the suspect does not adjust well at halftime.   Therefore, if, for some reason, the suspect is tied or close at halftime,  Denver's own adjustments will have even more value.  

5) The suspect averages only 4.73 yards per pass attempt, while the suspect's opponents average 7.02 yards per pass attempt.  These numbers suggest that the suspect's receivers are unable to get favorable separation or yards after the catch.  Further,  it would indicate that Denver can stretch the field and get to the 2nd and 3rd levels frequently.  

Based on my training and experience as a Detective Lt. with the Denver Broncos Sheriff's Dept. for several decades, and being previously familiar with the subject "KC" in my capacity as a law enforcement officer, I am making the following recommendations, to wit:

1)  Intelligence resources are available on both subjects, Milehighreport.com for the Broncos and Arrowheadpride.com for the Chiefs.  Both resources are considered secure and extremely reliable.

2)  Despite the profile portraying the subject as a victim of several losses, the victim has a documentable record of previous violence.  "KC" should be approached with extreme caution, and should be considered armed and potentially dangerous.  An officer safety bulletin has been sent to all agencies in the Broncos Law Enforcement network (BLE-n).

3)  Subject should be placed under constant, covert surveillance.  The DA's office has already sought and received a court order for a full C-Track, including roaming wire taps, from Superior Court 1.  Your agency is granted the order through inter-agency cooperation from our dept.

4)  Because of the danger pending, Denver Broncos SWAT has been alerted.  Team leader Brian Dawkins has assembled his team and been briefed.  His unit can be on site on 01-03-09 at your agency's request.  In the event that the subject becomes a threat to the Denver post season, SWAT is authorized to use any and all force to prevent a lethal win by KC.

Nothing Follows.  I, Det. Lt. S. NIchols 860 of the DBSD affirm the forgoing information is true to the best of my knowledge, and so swear under the pain and penalties of Perjury as provided for by NFL rules XXXII and XXXIII.

Submitted and Filed DBSD CID, MHR-PD, DB Office of the D.A.

Comment 19 comments  |  10 recs  | 

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Must of been up all night...

…working through Chiefs loss stats. That’s as much busy work as trying to hit Pluto with a Scud, I imagine.

That said, I’m sure this is the week that KC probably ‘responds’ to Todd Haley. The football gods have decreed it, I’m sure.

So this is war...misfortune at every bend in the road. Misery and murdered mules and sudden death in a ditch.-- Rick Atkinson "An Army at Dawn"

by PredominantlyOrange on Jan 1, 2010 12:15 PM MST reply actions  

ha! PO, it wasn't too bad, after 2 games, the trend appears with KC

A whole bunch of bad….

"But I hate the way our identity has changed..Kyle Orton might not be the flashiest quarterback, but the guy is a winner, and that formula worked for us. I hate to say it, but that’s the truth." --Brian Urlacher

by TJ Johnson on Jan 2, 2010 12:06 AM MST up reply actions  

The Bar is too high!

We’re not worthy!

Thanks for “Just the Facts, Man.”

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks

by KaptainKirk on Jan 1, 2010 12:22 PM MST reply actions  

HT sets the bar. My vertical leap doesn't allow me to even touch it.

"But I hate the way our identity has changed..Kyle Orton might not be the flashiest quarterback, but the guy is a winner, and that formula worked for us. I hate to say it, but that’s the truth." --Brian Urlacher

by TJ Johnson on Jan 2, 2010 12:07 AM MST up reply actions  

C'mon now.

I was a teacher, and I’m still horrible on numbers (stats). We all have a niche. Stats are at the heart of any sport, and that’s why your the man dude when it comes to breaking them down.

Great work, and rec’d!

Formerly known as HoosierTeacher or just HT.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Jan 2, 2010 3:04 AM MST up reply actions  

"you're", not "your"

English fails me at typing speed.

: )

Formerly known as HoosierTeacher or just HT.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Jan 2, 2010 3:06 AM MST up reply actions  

A+

Start the Broncos Decade with a light heart. Couched at the end though, the authorization for a SWAT Dawkins force to use any methods necessary …..if this were real, KC may consider forfeit.

"Aggression, discipline, accountability, effort" Brian Dawkins 9/29/2009
"Life is a daring adventure or nothing." Helen Keller
"He will always be a slave who does not know how to live upon a little" Horace

by PositivIntegral on Jan 1, 2010 1:41 PM MST via mobile reply actions  

Thanks, PI, Appreciated.

"But I hate the way our identity has changed..Kyle Orton might not be the flashiest quarterback, but the guy is a winner, and that formula worked for us. I hate to say it, but that’s the truth." --Brian Urlacher

by TJ Johnson on Jan 2, 2010 12:06 AM MST up reply actions  

Cracked me up, both of you

Great job on this, TJ. i loved the approach, and both Sheriff John and Det. Nichols were perfect as the lawmen we needed on the case. Good legwork, son – you should be up for a promotion soon!

Moreno/Buckhalter in '09

by Doc Bear on Jan 1, 2010 3:37 PM MST reply actions  

10-4

To paraphrase Sgt Friday, “Just the stat’s, ma’am”.

"Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away."
Philip K. Dick

by azdenfan on Jan 1, 2010 10:59 PM MST reply actions  

Thanks for taking the time to break from your regularly scheduled "Marshall/McDaniels/Scheffler" Episode Marathon...

"But I hate the way our identity has changed..Kyle Orton might not be the flashiest quarterback, but the guy is a winner, and that formula worked for us. I hate to say it, but that’s the truth." --Brian Urlacher

by TJ Johnson on Jan 2, 2010 12:05 AM MST up reply actions  

Classic! Loved this post...too bad crap is hitting fan this week. :(

upheaval in dove valley again. dammit.

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Jan 1, 2010 11:01 PM MST reply actions  

Great Post TJ...Thanks Dude

Well Rec’d for your effort, fun, and relief from the turmoil in the “other” threads!!!

-Richee
-Stick to the fight when you are hardest hit - it's when things seem worst that you must not quit!

by BroncoSense72 on Jan 1, 2010 11:21 PM MST reply actions  

Thanks, BS, I was guessing this post might get 10 comments at best once the news broke today

of Marshall and Scheffler. Thanks for taking the time.

"But I hate the way our identity has changed..Kyle Orton might not be the flashiest quarterback, but the guy is a winner, and that formula worked for us. I hate to say it, but that’s the truth." --Brian Urlacher

by TJ Johnson on Jan 2, 2010 12:02 AM MST up reply actions  

Can you guys talk to marshall and shef

CentSports free 10 cents to bet with Better than Fantasy Football, pick'em!!

by RiG on Jan 2, 2010 12:07 AM MST reply actions  

I'd rather Dawkins talk to them.

Formerly known as HoosierTeacher or just HT.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Jan 2, 2010 3:07 AM MST up reply actions  

+1

-Richee
-Stick to the fight when you are hardest hit - it's when things seem worst that you must not quit!

by BroncoSense72 on Jan 2, 2010 7:33 AM MST up reply actions  

It's a real bummer that today was all about Marshall and McDaniels and Scheffler.

This was a great post. Dude, If you are the MHR Town Marshall, does that mean you have direct contact with the Broncos Brandon Marshall? If so, would you relay this message on behalf of village idiot, KB?

Ready? Here it goes.

“P-L-E-A-S-E………(stop)……….S-T-A-Y……..(stop)”

That’s all. Rec’d.

If Taylor Swift were to try and tackle me, I'd let her.
Girl, you don't need to be a 10, as long as you have a good smile and smell like bacon.

by Troy Hufford on Jan 2, 2010 12:35 AM MST reply actions  

Fantastic guys

Ok, I admit it. I read all the drama first. I am glad I did though as I can now finish my morning on MHR with a smile :)

Thanks, that was fun! OH, and Rec’d

Opinions are like......, Well anyway, this is mine.
Don’t worry about it. As an ignorant redneck, I’m qualified to say that

by Sean in Pa. on Jan 2, 2010 6:03 AM MST reply actions  

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