This week, as I was building my statistical "profile" of this week's opponent, I thought I would team up with MHR's own Steve Nichols (hoosierteacher), in order to create a more official case file of Denver's next suspect: The Kansas City Chiefs.
Hopefully, by studying what others (including our own Denver Broncos) have done to the Chiefs, we will get a better understanding of what the Broncos are likely going to do on Sunday to get the win.
We constructed a stat sheet of what it looks like when the Chiefs lose. For reference purposes, we looked at all 12 of Kansas City's losses from the current 2009 season:
- 9/13/2009 L 24- 38 at Baltimore Ravens
- 9/20/2009 L 10- 13 Oakland Raiders
- 9/27/2009 L 14- 34 at Philadelphia Eagles
- 10/4/2009 L 16- 27 New York Giants
- 10/11/2009 L 20- 26 Dallas Cowboys
- 10/25/2009 L 7- 37 San Diego Chargers
- 11/8/2009 L 21- 24 at Jacksonville Jaguars
- 11/29/2009 L 14- 43 at San Diego Chargers
- 12/6/2009 L 13- 44 Denver Broncos
- 12/13/2009 L 10- 16 Buffalo Bills
- 12/20/2009 L 34- 41 Cleveland Browns
- 12/27/2009 L 10- 17 at Cincinnati Bengals
Enjoy this one. I know you will.
Case Front: Report 09-12109 Denver Broncos Sheriff's Dept.
(from) Lead Agency: MileHighReport.com Town Marshal Lt. TJ Johnson
Consultation Request (to): Denver Broncos Sheriff's Dept. Criminal Investigations; Assigned to Lt. Steve Nichols (cover "HoosierTeacher")
Forensic Assistant Assigned: N/A
Status: Open and Approved
12-31-09 1533 hrs. Signal 5
On the above date and time, I Detective Lt. Nichols of the Denver Broncos Sheriff's Dept. (Badge #860) received a formal request from MHR Town Marshall Lt. TJ Johnson for consultation regarding case 09-12109. The request was assigned by Sheriff Bena (#702), and copies of the request and acceptance were forwarded to and approved by the district atty's office (see attached 01-A). Case as follows:
Lt. Johnson is investigating an entity which goes by the name of Kansas City Chiefs. Entity is considered the prime suspect in a series of thefts from alleged victim which goes by the name Denver Broncos over a period of several years. It is alleged that the Chiefs (hereafter referred to as KC) have robbed the Broncos (hereafter referred to as DEN) in "end of the season contests". Despite a disparity between the abilities of the two teams which favors Denver, documentation tends to show that KC has beaten DEN near the end of the NFL season, particularly in December contests hosted in Arrowhead Stadium.
None of the above information is in dispute. However, this year DEN managed to overcome KC in a December contest. With a playoff berth on the line, DEN faces the potential to be victimized at home on 01-3-10. Because of the potential for violence by the subject KC, Lt. Johnson has requested a profile of the KC team and advice for further action.
The following profile was worked up by Special Agent TheDudeAbides of the Bureau of Football Investigations (Forensic File 12109 - PSY01):
|3rd Down Conv Pct||27.14%||41.53%|
|4th Down Conv Pct||45.83%||25.00%|
|Red Zone Conv Pct||58.33%||54.72%|
|Goal to Go Conv Pct||58.33%||50.70%|
|Avg. Gain Per Play||4.48||5.86|
|Net Yards Rushing||110||167|
|Total Rushing Plays||26||36|
|Avg. Gain Per Rush||4.13||4.54|
|Net Yards Passing||178||220|
|Yards Lost on Sacks||16||7|
|Gross Yards Passing||194||227|
|Avg. Gain Per Pass||4.73||7.02|
|Fumbles / Fum. Lost||2/1||1/1|
|Gross Punting Average||44.48||44.00|
|Net Punting Average||39.88||39.03|
|Punt Return Avg.||5.25||8.55|
|Kickoff Return Yards||107||81|
|Kickoff Return Avg.||18.18||21.77|
|Time of Possession||27:43:00||32:50:00|
Based on the above profile, Special Agent Abides made the following conclusions:
It's clear from looking at the data that the suspect has not played well this year in almost all of their games. They have been dominated in almost all of the statistical categories. In summary:
1) The suspect is susceptible to both the run and the pass, giving up (on a per-game-basis) over 150 yards on the ground and 220 yards through the air. This has caused the suspect to lose the time-of-possession battle.
2) The suspect tends to be weak on 3rd downs, converting only 27.14 % of the time. This has cut drives short, contributed to a lower average gain per drive, and is also reflected in the time of possession statistic.
3) The suspect gives up almost 3 sacks per game. This indicates a sub-par offensive line. Elvis Dumervil should be able to take advantage of this with a multi-sack game. It appears as if blitzing the suspect is not a necessity.
4) The suspect gives up twice as many points as he scores. Moreover, the suspect gives up about 1 touchdown per quarter. This would tend to suggest that the suspect does not adjust well at halftime. Therefore, if, for some reason, the suspect is tied or close at halftime, Denver's own adjustments will have even more value.
5) The suspect averages only 4.73 yards per pass attempt, while the suspect's opponents average 7.02 yards per pass attempt. These numbers suggest that the suspect's receivers are unable to get favorable separation or yards after the catch. Further, it would indicate that Denver can stretch the field and get to the 2nd and 3rd levels frequently.
Based on my training and experience as a Detective Lt. with the Denver Broncos Sheriff's Dept. for several decades, and being previously familiar with the subject "KC" in my capacity as a law enforcement officer, I am making the following recommendations, to wit:
1) Intelligence resources are available on both subjects, Milehighreport.com for the Broncos and Arrowheadpride.com for the Chiefs. Both resources are considered secure and extremely reliable.
2) Despite the profile portraying the subject as a victim of several losses, the victim has a documentable record of previous violence. "KC" should be approached with extreme caution, and should be considered armed and potentially dangerous. An officer safety bulletin has been sent to all agencies in the Broncos Law Enforcement network (BLE-n).
3) Subject should be placed under constant, covert surveillance. The DA's office has already sought and received a court order for a full C-Track, including roaming wire taps, from Superior Court 1. Your agency is granted the order through inter-agency cooperation from our dept.
4) Because of the danger pending, Denver Broncos SWAT has been alerted. Team leader Brian Dawkins has assembled his team and been briefed. His unit can be on site on 01-03-09 at your agency's request. In the event that the subject becomes a threat to the Denver post season, SWAT is authorized to use any and all force to prevent a lethal win by KC.
Nothing Follows. I, Det. Lt. S. NIchols 860 of the DBSD affirm the forgoing information is true to the best of my knowledge, and so swear under the pain and penalties of Perjury as provided for by NFL rules XXXII and XXXIII.
Submitted and Filed DBSD CID, MHR-PD, DB Office of the D.A.